【NaNa说美股】20260309大海航行靠舵手，股市暴涨靠懂王！

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大家好

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欢迎回到大家说美股

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今天是3月9号

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周一美股盘中再次上演了一场今天大逆转

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由于周末中东局势升级

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油价飙升

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全球股市全线重挫

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盘前资金加速逃离亚欧市场

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回流美国美股斯拉股指的跳空低开

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并且一度快速下杀

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但是很快就获得成戒指数逐步回升

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这种盘前因为海外事件大跌

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盘中资金回流华尔街的节奏啊

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是美股特有的韧性

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一旦大本营受到威胁

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全球流窜的海外美元资金就会拍马赶回来

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勤王护驾

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虽然不是每次都会如此

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但是十次中总有七八次啊

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都会出现类似的走势

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这也是我为什么不做其他市场

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只专注美股的原因之一

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尾盘最后40分钟呢

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更是出现了戏剧性的一幕

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一位哥伦比亚广播公司的记者在X平台上透露

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他在电话采访中听到川普表示

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美国针对伊朗的军事行动已经非常彻底

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暂时已基本接近尾声

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而且进展远快于最初预计的4~5周时间表

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原本市场还在等待

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今天下午05:30的正式新闻发布会

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结果这一条未经正式证实的小作文

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强在下午05:30新闻发布会之前示范

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瞬间就引爆了市场

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尾盘剧烈拉升哈

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空头被打的措手不及

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被迫回补仓位

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大家要再次记住

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交易的精髓不在于消息本身的真伪

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而在于市场是否愿意交易它

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当市场空头仓位过重

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情绪被压抑到极致

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一个头条新闻就足以让空头踩踏出逃了

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今天的反弹在很大程度上

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就是覆盖脉挤压的一个逆转

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指数从日内低点6636强力回升哈

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最终收益6800点附近

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即便没有这个尾盘的消息刺激

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今天的低开高走呢也早就有预兆

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上个周五我们就说过

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市场的对冲put仓位非常的沉重

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在这种仓位结构之下

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指数很难维持单边暴跌的

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反弹的动力

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主要就来自于空头回补以及海外资金回流

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所以上周我说

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不管那个周末发生什么事情

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不管欧洲亚周跌成什么样

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我们都不要去理会哈

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今天大概率就是会低开高走

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果然这个老剧本老套路又上演了

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对不对

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另外呢

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今天指数跳空低开

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导致它的价那个过于偏离5日均线

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技术面上本来就有强烈的拉回需求

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本来是需要一到两个交易日进行修复的哈

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结果尾盘直接一次性拉回

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也说明市场中空头仓位过重

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所以这个回补力量呢非常的明显

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明天开市之后

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指数大概率会先有一个惯性上冲哈

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去测试6850附近的压力

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已完成本轮空头回补的最后一段

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所以呢要注意这个6850附近的阻力

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随后指数就可能再次向下回踩6750

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来进行二次确认

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因为川普的政治表态虽然能够抚平短期情绪

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但是真正决定趋势反转的变量依然是油价

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WTI原油今天一度冲到了120美元附近

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创下2022年中以来的最高水平

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随后g seven国家呢就召开了紧急会议

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市场一度传出可能释放大约4亿桶原有的消息

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油价随即迅速的回落

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嗯虽然会议最终没有决定立即释放储备

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只表示仍在评估

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并且随时准备采取行动

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但是这个信号

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依然对原有多头形成了明显的震慑

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成功封死了原有多头的上攻空间

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这也说明目前100美元以上的油价

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已经明显处于极端情绪区间了

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市场博弈主要来自型机构之间的仓位对抗哈

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这个局面就不再适合散户参与了

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如果接下来原有价格持续回落

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那么市场就会认为地缘政治风险确实正在解除

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美股的风险也将快速消退

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反弹才能够获得实质的支撑

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但是如果油价再次走高呢

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那交易员很快就会意识到诶

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市场并不真正相信战争即将结束的趋势

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滞胀担忧会重新升温

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美股空头呢也将随时反扑

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所以接下来市场仍然会反复追问三个问题

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霍尔木兹海峡是否恢复了航运

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油价是否回落

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以及伊朗是否真的停火

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如果这三个问题没有明确的答案

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那么美股的反弹很容易就会再次失去动力

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除此之外

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周三的CPI数据也是另一项重要变量

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虽然这个数据反映的是2月情况

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但是能源价格还没有暴涨

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所以呃即使数据偏冷哈

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也可能被市场视为过于滞后了

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因为自3月以来

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能源市场就已经发生了巨大的变化嘛

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但若是CPI数据超预期的话

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配合当前的高油价

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那自涨担忧就会迅速升温哈

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甚至引发市场对息风险的重新定价

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波动率指数VIX今天呢同样高开低走

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从35持续回落到25附近

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基本释放了周末累积的大部分恐慌情绪

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vex这种快速冲高又快速回落的走势

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通常意味着市场情绪呢仍然不稳定

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资金在暴跌与报复性反弹之间反复博弈

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而不是出现单边资金撤离

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上周五我们也说过

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哈维克斯涨到35呃以上的时候

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就意味着市场的即将逆转

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或者是嗯出现这个阶段性底部

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结果今天啊就出现了一个阶段性的底部是吧

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中东局势呢其实远比川普的胜利叙事更为复杂

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以色列在周六

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连夜轰炸了德黑兰附近的几个染料存储设施

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而伊朗方面也对海湾国家展开了新一轮

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与此同时

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伊朗方面还确定了

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权力过渡之后啊

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伊朗内部的政治立场反而更加激进强硬

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毕竟杀父之仇不共戴天嘛

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这一时

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市场对于冲突能够迅速结束的预期

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明显下降了嗯

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霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重影响

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大量中东原油无法正常出口

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储油罐都装满了

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包括沙特

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科威特在内的部分产油国纷纷被迫减产

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由于油气生产具有较强的技术和后勤依赖哈

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一旦停产恢复到这个正常水平

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往往需要数周甚至是两个月时间

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这意味着一轮能源冲击实际上已经开始形成了

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这并不是川普单方面宣布胜利就能够改变的哈

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黄金呢在这轮行情中的表现也让不少多头失望

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在美元美债收益率走强的背景之下

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贵金属受到了明显的压制

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黄金能够撑着不跌就已经很好了哈

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但是很多金矿股就表现疲软

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个股方面

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本周市场关注的财报不多

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但是仍有几家公司值得留意

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甲骨文将在周二盘后公布业绩

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作为当前AI算力基础设施的重要参与者

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他的财报不仅影响公司本身

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也会对AI数据中心

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还有云基础设施板块情绪产生影响

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期权市场

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预计财报后的股价涨跌幅大约为8.2%

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嗯市场当前的焦点呢在于甲骨文的AI相关订单

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以及剩余履约义务是否能够维持高速增长

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如果公司的资本开支大幅增加

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导致资有现金流预期下调

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那股价可能会再次回落到135

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140美元

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若是云基础设施增长继续超预期

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现金流能够出现改善的话

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嗯股价可能重新看向170美元以上

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adobe的彩报也受到关注

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股价最近呢

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随着软件板块反弹了大约17%

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但是部分机构仍然对该股短期表现保持谨慎

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花期在财报前

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将adobe的目标价从387美元

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下调到三百十五美元

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并且维持中性评级

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嗯认为adobe Q1业绩表现将会趋于平淡无奇

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2026财年业绩上调空间有限

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期权市场呢

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预计财报日

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adobe的股价涨跌幅大约为正负7.9%

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明显高于历史平均水平哈

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说明当前这个期权溢价较高

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裸买的话不太合算

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一旦财报发布之后

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这个iv可能就迅速坍缩了额

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如果财报指引不及预期

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股价可能会重新回落到

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250~260美元

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若是AI变现能力超出市场预期呢

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那可能触发空头挤压

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上方三百十到320美元将成为重要阻力

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光通讯概念股

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LITE股价大涨14.7%

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公司即将被纳入标普500指数

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上周五盘后

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标普道琼斯指数公司宣布将COHRLITE

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还有VRT纳入了标普500指数

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这三家公司呢分别代表了三个AI基础设施方向

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哈光通讯

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液冷和数据中心电力指数纳入

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意味着被动资金未来将会持续买入

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也反映出市场资金呢人在持续压住AI基础设施

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赛道存储板块则出现了一个非常有意思的现象

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SK海力士与三星电子也被资金疯狂抛售啊

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但美股存储却出现了完全不同的走势

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SNDK夜盘受情绪拖累

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一度大跌啊

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开盘之后却被资金一路猛拉转涨

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这说明全球资金正在撤离半导体资产

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但是并没有撤离存储行业本身

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换句话说

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资金并不是看空存储周期

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而是在规避韩国等地缘政治

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风险更高的东亚市场

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当资金卖出亚洲科技股时

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一部分资金呢

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实际上直接就回流美国半导体公司了

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这也导致了美国跟韩国存储板块之间啊

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当下出现明显的这个脱钩行情

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整体而言哈

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短期内市场波动呢仍会维持在较高的水平

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我对于美股整体并没有特别的悲观哈

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因为美国下半年中期选举临近

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对通胀再度上行的容忍度偏低

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我完全不怀疑美国政府

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或者说呃

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川普实际控制局势或者油价的决心与能力

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华尔街不敢不卖这个面子给大统领呀

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历史上多次出现

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当市场跌到某个关键位置时

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政策或者消息层面的T口交易就会出现

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今天的尾盘反弹

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就是一次政策托底的预演哈

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在信息真假参半

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情绪极度放大的当下呢

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我们保持客观冷静

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比任何技术指标的更重要

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行今天我们就说到这里

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那我们明天见拜拜

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