【NaNa说美股】20260324美以：没有人比我们更懂偷袭！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月24号周二

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市场已经从昨天的川普嘴炮高潮中冷静了下来

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今天的盘面不再是单边修复

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而是一场压抑的多空拉锯战

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深大股指最后呢还是全线收跌哈

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停火蓄势正在动摇

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市场观望情绪浓厚

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原油价格止跌回升

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川普昨天刚宣布暂停轰炸

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今天美伊联军就空袭了伊朗

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伊斯法罕和霍拉姆沙赫尔的天然气设施

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虽然伊朗通过提前关停减压站

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避开了大爆炸

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但是基础设施已经受损严重

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作为报复

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伊朗威胁要对美军基地和以色列能源中枢

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进行对等打击

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这种消息面的矛盾反映了美姨的真实意图

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谈判可能只是烟雾弹瘫痪

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对方的战争潜力才是真实目的

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在我看来

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这一场仗打到现在

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伊朗已经不仅是美姨的眼中钉

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更是中东皇爷们的心头大患呐

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以及对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁

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已经彻底耗尽了沙特阿联酋等邻国们的耐心

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俗话说

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断人财路犹如杀人父母

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中东皇爷们这一次估计是横死波斯猫了

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如果不能一鼓作气夺回海峡的控制权

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邻居们以后都得被伊朗掐着脖子过日子呀

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晚上都睡不着觉

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对于川普来说呢

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推翻伊朗现有政权可能太麻烦

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但是控制海峡使他宣布胜利

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重塑美国震慑力的唯一指标

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只要海峡一主邮轮能够重新通行

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那么伊朗战争就会像俄乌冲突一样

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迅速在金融市场上被边缘化

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川普这边还在白宫继续释放达成协议的烟雾弹

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甚至替伊朗宣布永不再拥有核武器

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但这更像是极限施压的心理战

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因为与此同时

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第82空降师司令部呢

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已经接到了五角大楼的命令

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将一支约有3000名士兵的快速反应部队

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部署到中东

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这支陆军全球快速反应部队

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具备在接获命令

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18小时内实现全球部署的强悍投送能力

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近5000名海军陆战队精锐

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也在全速的划水合围哈

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美军这种高规格的集结释放了一个明确信号

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就是一旦人员到齐了

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随时会实施地面投射去抢夺这个石油枢纽

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哈尔克岛

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根据以色列媒体放出的消息

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白宫计划将4月9号设定为结束战争的目标

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日期

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从2月28号开打以来

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刚好就六周时间

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这意味着

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如果这五天的嘴炮器要是还谈不拢

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那这个周末或者下周美军就要墙倒了

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没有人比美姨更懂偷袭哈

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而这种军事上的重兵集结

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也就让当下市场进入了观望状态

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这其实也并不是什么坏事

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因为按照过去的历史经验

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一旦美军地面部队正式登陆

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市场

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往往会解读为行动已经开始

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最不确定的阶段过去了

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风险溢价反而下降

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股市反弹

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比如1991年1月的海湾战争

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在美军发动了地面战

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沙漠风暴之后

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由于市场已经提前消化了利利空

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开打之后反而持续上涨

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还有2003年3月的伊拉克战争

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美军正式入侵伊拉克

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而美股当时也是正好见底反弹哈

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开战反而等于利空出境

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所以呢这一次要是真的开始墙倒了

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反而比现在这样局势嗯不清不楚

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停滞不前要好得多

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但是前提当然是嗯墙倒能够迅速成功

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战争是短期可控的

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市场才能够扭转趋势

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重启这个牛市哈

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如果是嗯夺岛不成功

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反而陷入长期消耗型

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比如阿富汗战争啊

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那就不是好利好了

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可能呃在刚登陆那个时候会有个暴力反弹

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但不能够持续太久

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标普500指数

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今天日K呢输出了一根十字星

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仍然处于5日与10日均线下方啊

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反弹还是很弱哈

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川普的嘴炮只能够提供日内级别的脉冲

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而真正的方向取决于霍尔木兹海峡

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能不能够通汉

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今天的缩量震荡

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说明市场目前仍对下一步发展保持高度警戒

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多空双方都在等这五天停火期里

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到底能不能够出一个实质性的协议

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寻求更明确的方向

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我们继续守好手里现金

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不要在迷雾散去之前就把子弹打光

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根据高盛数据

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对冲基金已经连续九周抛售包括能源材料

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工业

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金融和房地产在内的周期性股票了

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压住最糟糕的经济冲击尚未到来

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与此同时呢

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散户投资者的风险偏好正在急剧下降

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散户交易量占总交易量的比例

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从2025年11月的峰值15%

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降到了8.1%

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为2024年第三季度以来最低水平

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参与度与2020年疫情期间

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还有2022年熊市期间的水平相当

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CCTA本周还是净卖家

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无论市场涨跌

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要到下个月情况才会出现改变

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看这张图表

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蓝色的这条线代表CCTA的仓位变化

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橙色的线代表标普500指数

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看这张图你就能够明白

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为什么这两周指数下杀的如此丝滑了

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这代表CCTA基金在极短的时间内

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不计成本的在所有反弹点到货

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这个抛售目前已经从多头平仓转为了主动开空

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他们现在的任务并不是离场哈

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而是反手做空

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这会对指数产生持续的下行拖拽力

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现在蓝色线呢已经快要跌到-40的极端区域

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历史上看

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每当染色线触及-40甚至更低之后

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比如2022年底或者是2025年初

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市场呢就往往需要较长的时间

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低位震荡来重新磨底

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我们看这里

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2022年和2025年那个时候哈

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都是磨了一阵子的

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Ccta

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只有在指数彻底站稳50日均线后

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才会缓慢的掉头

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就重新开始买入

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当你看到这条蓝色线不再往下俯冲

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而是开始水平横移

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而且指数能够连续三天站稳200日均线的时候

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诶

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那个时候才是大资金重新这个进场做多的时候

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波动率指数VIX呢今天收在27附近

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市场依然处于防御模式

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黄金在连续下跌后企稳

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华尔街逆势看好

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表示对黄金的长期看涨逻辑并没有改变

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回调就是买入机会

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而美债收益率与美元同步走高

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反映资金在避险与利率预期之间重新配置

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10年期美收益率在隔夜大跌后重新走高

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目前呢仍挂在4.3%以上

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能源带来的通胀冲击

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已经让投资者放弃了对全球进一步货币宽松

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希望

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市场预计美联储今年将会维持利率不变

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期货走势显示

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只存在恒小的这个呃加息的可能

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则普遍被认为将会被迫在今年加息

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以遏制通胀

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个股方面

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由于比特币走低

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加密货币概念股呢今年集体下跌

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circle更是暴跌了20%呃

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据称clarity法案最新草案将会禁止稳定币

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靠鱼饵吃利息

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银行业一直在施压哈

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不希望稳定币变成类银行的存款产品呃

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理由呢是可能会损害银行业

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并且抑制贷款

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最终的妥协方向可能是允许给奖励

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但是不能够按余额发利息

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这个事情都已经说了很很久了

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这次又拿出来炒冷饭

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主要还是最近股价涨多了

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找个理由兑现

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这种股票本来就是高波动

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适合做波段

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死

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拿的话就很容易坐过山车

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IGV跌超4%

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消息面上

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亚马逊在开发新AI工具

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推进AI自动化

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销售业务拓展等功能

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再一次引发了市场对AI取代软件岗位的担忧

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虽然AWS发言人表示

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公司并非试图用人工智能取代员工

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而是希望让他们摆脱重复性工作

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以便他们能够专注于更高层次的工作

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但是这些岗位正是亚马逊最近大规模裁员的

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重点领域呀

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而且ENTROPICK昨天刚发布

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跟新cloud已经可以直接操作电脑完成任务

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比如打开应用程序

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浏览网页和填写电子表格

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00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,720
这种趋势又让市场呢又开始重新思考这个问题

214
00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,480
就是AI是不是在绕过软件公司啊

215
00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,129
是不是最终会代替掉所有软件股啊

216
00:09:40,129 --> 00:09:41,809
IGV成分股当中

217
00:09:43,950 --> 00:09:46,490
股价呢跌破了这条颈线后

218
00:09:46,490 --> 00:09:47,779
反抽失败哈

219
00:09:47,779 --> 00:09:49,340
技术上已经走弱了

220
00:09:49,340 --> 00:09:50,419
只要涨不回去

221
00:09:50,419 --> 00:09:52,350
我们就不急着去抄底了

222
00:09:52,350 --> 00:09:54,529
甲骨文也跌了4.7%

223
00:09:54,529 --> 00:09:59,080
虽然在伦敦AI大会上大将AIA制和企业软件

224
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:00,720
但生产根本就不买账

225
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:01,539
故事再好

226
00:10:01,539 --> 00:10:02,820
短期兑现不了

227
00:10:02,820 --> 00:10:04,200
股价照样跌

228
00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,668
微软最近的股价走势更让人不安

229
00:10:07,668 --> 00:10:10,109
周线已经跌破了2022年以来的

230
00:10:10,109 --> 00:10:12,318
这条长期上升趋势线

231
00:10:12,318 --> 00:10:16,339
200周均线呢成为多头最后的防守线了

232
00:10:16,339 --> 00:10:20,058
月线级别更是自2015年以来第一次

233
00:10:20,058 --> 00:10:21,919
连续五个月收音

234
00:10:21,919 --> 00:10:23,559
基本面上也有不确定性啊

235
00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,649
与open爱关系似乎出现了一些裂痕

236
00:10:26,649 --> 00:10:28,909
我朋友爱在融资文件中

237
00:10:28,909 --> 00:10:32,009
将对微软的依赖列为潜在风险

238
00:10:32,009 --> 00:10:34,850
明确表示要去微软依赖

239
00:10:34,850 --> 00:10:37,730
虽然投行依然看好AI带动微软

240
00:10:37,730 --> 00:10:39,940
云计算二者的增长

241
00:10:39,940 --> 00:10:42,220
但如果AI红利不及预期的话

242
00:10:42,220 --> 00:10:44,279
那云业务就会有压力嗯

243
00:10:44,279 --> 00:10:46,399
投资者呢担心AI会让office

244
00:10:46,399 --> 00:10:50,269
还有这个SAAS订阅服务大幅度的减少

245
00:10:50,269 --> 00:10:52,970
所以现在的微软到底是黄金坑呢

246
00:10:52,970 --> 00:10:54,509
还是时代的拐点呢

247
00:10:54,509 --> 00:10:56,779
这需要时间来验证呀

248
00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:58,039
我越来越觉得吧

249
00:10:58,039 --> 00:11:01,580
草莓股的精髓还是得买标普QQ

250
00:11:01,580 --> 00:11:03,899
玩个股风险还是很大哈

251
00:11:03,899 --> 00:11:05,480
就算是巨头

252
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,029
有的时候也能够跌到让人绝望

253
00:11:08,029 --> 00:11:10,210
比如现在的甲骨文

254
00:11:10,210 --> 00:11:12,169
微软联合健康

255
00:11:12,169 --> 00:11:18,570
前两年AMD meta呃都跌的就是让人彻底就心发慌

256
00:11:18,570 --> 00:11:21,629
虽然都说巨头股票只要能够拿着

257
00:11:21,629 --> 00:11:22,629
早晚会回来

258
00:11:22,629 --> 00:11:23,870
还会涨的更高

259
00:11:23,870 --> 00:11:27,190
可是这其实都是看着后视镜飙车啦

260
00:11:27,190 --> 00:11:31,679
谁能够保证这个现在的巨头不会是下一个IBM

261
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,740
英特尔或者诺基亚呢

262
00:11:33,740 --> 00:11:35,620
半导体这边开始分化

263
00:11:35,620 --> 00:11:37,340
阿斯麦股价逆势上涨

264
00:11:37,340 --> 00:11:40,339
SK海力士计划砸79亿美元

265
00:11:40,339 --> 00:11:44,619
购买阿斯麦加的尖端极紫外光刻制程芯片

266
00:11:44,619 --> 00:11:45,339
制造设备

267
00:11:45,339 --> 00:11:47,740
但是另一边博通这边股价下跌

268
00:11:47,740 --> 00:11:52,559
因为公司公开警示正面临着供应链约束问题嗯

269
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,899
他的合作伙伴台积电产能受限

270
00:11:54,899 --> 00:11:58,990
成为制约整个芯片行业发展的核心瓶颈

271
00:11:58,990 --> 00:12:00,070
与此同时呢

272
00:12:00,070 --> 00:12:03,610
中东冲突带来的能源与原材料供应压力

273
00:12:03,610 --> 00:12:07,370
也为全球半导体产业增添了新的不确定性

274
00:12:07,370 --> 00:12:10,950
台积电的2NM产能已经排到2028年啦

275
00:12:10,950 --> 00:12:12,370
严重供不应求

276
00:12:12,370 --> 00:12:16,999
连最大客户英伟达都可能要被迫改变设计呃

277
00:12:16,999 --> 00:12:21,359
供给瓶颈呢正在把整个AI产业链给卡住哈

278
00:12:21,359 --> 00:12:23,039
同时也在推高成本

279
00:12:23,039 --> 00:12:26,960
不过产能紧张也赋予了台积电更强的定价权

280
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:27,620
有报道称

281
00:12:27,620 --> 00:12:31,600
台积电先进支撑将会迎来连续4年的产假潮

282
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:35,690
所以现在台股市场应该远比美股市场强得多吧

283
00:12:35,690 --> 00:12:38,029
行今天我们就说到这里

284
00:12:38,029 --> 00:12:39,980
那我们明天见拜拜

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