BV1bPPWzkELJ · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,760 女士们、先生们 2 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,339 我们正面临股市的剧烈动荡 3 00:00:03,339 --> 00:00:04,280 现在道 4 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:04,580 琼斯 5 00:00:04,580 --> 00:00:07,019 工业平均指数下跌逾一千一百点 6 00:00:07,019 --> 00:00:08,640 我们将讨论当前局势 7 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:09,880 分析发生原因 8 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:11,539 预测市场后续走向 9 00:00:11,539 --> 00:00:14,939 今天视频中将解析部分股票 10 00:00:14,939 --> 00:00:16,760 市场出现一些非常有趣的动向 11 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:17,500 这些动向能 12 00:00:17,500 --> 00:00:19,260 揭示市场实际方向的信号 13 00:00:19,260 --> 00:00:20,980 以及部分股票的后续走势 14 00:00:20,980 --> 00:00:21,940 我们将深入探讨这些内容 15 00:00:21,940 --> 00:00:22,739 在视频开头部分 16 00:00:22,739 --> 00:00:24,910 接下来我要回应这位汤姆·李 17 00:00:24,910 --> 00:00:26,530 这是昨天的内容 18 00:00:26,530 --> 00:00:27,829 他在谈论这个 19 00:00:27,829 --> 00:00:29,089 市场底部形态的表现 20 00:00:29,100 --> 00:00:30,510 当市场见底时的特征 21 00:00:30,510 --> 00:00:32,950 我将分享对此的看法 22 00:00:32,950 --> 00:00:35,049 而这则消息刚刚发布十一分钟前 23 00:00:35,049 --> 00:00:36,729 詹森谈到开放爪计划 24 00:00:36,729 --> 00:00:38,270 最重要的软件发布 25 00:00:38,270 --> 00:00:40,140 可能是有史以来最重大的版本 26 00:00:40,140 --> 00:00:41,380 今日行动指南视频 27 00:00:41,380 --> 00:00:41,579 各位观众 28 00:00:41,579 --> 00:00:42,500 感谢大家的参与 29 00:00:42,500 --> 00:00:43,100 如果您不介意的话 30 00:00:43,100 --> 00:00:44,399 请点个赞 31 00:00:44,399 --> 00:00:45,340 点个赞 32 00:00:45,340 --> 00:00:45,700 图标 33 00:00:45,700 --> 00:00:46,880 这就是我需要的 34 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:47,920 感谢您的支持 35 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:49,079 请务必订阅频道 36 00:00:49,079 --> 00:00:50,549 我力求及时更新信息 37 00:00:50,549 --> 00:00:53,450 涵盖所有市场动态与事件 38 00:00:53,450 --> 00:00:54,270 所以啊 39 00:00:54,270 --> 00:00:54,530 是的 40 00:00:54,530 --> 00:00:57,130 请订阅以接收提醒和评论 41 00:00:57,130 --> 00:00:59,409 今日下方将提供免费清单 42 00:00:59,409 --> 00:01:01,770 稍后视频中会详细介绍 43 00:01:01,770 --> 00:01:02,189 好的 44 00:01:02,189 --> 00:01:03,850 首先来看 45 00:01:03,850 --> 00:01:04,400 嗯 46 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:05,799 道指大幅下跌 47 00:01:05,799 --> 00:01:06,599 你需要自问 48 00:01:06,599 --> 00:01:06,840 好的 49 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:07,879 究竟发生了什么 50 00:01:07,879 --> 00:01:09,140 为何道指暴跌 51 00:01:09,140 --> 00:01:09,620 具体来说 52 00:01:09,620 --> 00:01:10,659 如此剧烈地 53 00:01:10,659 --> 00:01:13,060 今日纳斯达克并未受到严重冲击 54 00:01:13,060 --> 00:01:16,840 顺便说一下，纳斯达克较历史高点下跌约6% 55 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,010 所以这只是一个小幅回调 56 00:01:19,010 --> 00:01:20,209 目前纳斯达克指数显示 57 00:01:20,209 --> 00:01:21,129 没有太过疯狂的波动 58 00:01:21,129 --> 00:01:22,069 如果我们讨论十点 59 00:01:22,069 --> 00:01:23,590 然后我们再讨论 60 00:01:23,590 --> 00:01:24,010 呃 61 00:01:24,010 --> 00:01:25,609 这里出现了一个显著的回调 62 00:01:25,609 --> 00:01:28,390 但道指已下跌1100点 63 00:01:28,390 --> 00:01:29,310 到底发生了什么 64 00:01:29,310 --> 00:01:30,810 我们继续深入分析 65 00:01:30,810 --> 00:01:32,769 现在我们发现问题了 66 00:01:32,769 --> 00:01:33,349 你看到了吗 67 00:01:33,349 --> 00:01:34,439 我看到的是 68 00:01:34,439 --> 00:01:36,120 看看沃尔玛股票 69 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,340 沃尔玛是道指的重要组成部分 70 00:01:38,340 --> 00:01:40,319 而这只股票今日大幅下跌 71 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,780 单日跌幅超过4% 72 00:01:42,780 --> 00:01:45,219 这对道指影响显著 73 00:01:45,219 --> 00:01:47,340 当沃尔玛股票下跌4%时 74 00:01:47,340 --> 00:01:51,930 同时还有部分医疗保健类公司 75 00:01:51,930 --> 00:01:53,790 比如强生公司下跌3% 76 00:01:53,790 --> 00:01:54,569 这里下跌3% 77 00:01:54,569 --> 00:01:55,870 默克公司下跌3% 78 00:01:55,870 --> 00:01:58,859 6%而珍公司下跌超4% 79 00:01:58,859 --> 00:02:00,540 这些公司影响显著 80 00:02:00,540 --> 00:02:01,739 这只股票表现强劲 81 00:02:01,739 --> 00:02:04,019 但今日下跌4.5% 82 00:02:04,019 --> 00:02:07,150 这已成为投资组合中的重大拖累 83 00:02:07,150 --> 00:02:08,449 最终 84 00:02:08,449 --> 00:02:12,110 这些股票大幅拖累整个指数 85 00:02:12,110 --> 00:02:14,009 今日显著拖累指数 86 00:02:14,009 --> 00:02:14,969 英伟达 87 00:02:14,969 --> 00:02:16,110 情况并不太糟 88 00:02:16,110 --> 00:02:16,949 苹果公司 89 00:02:16,949 --> 00:02:17,849 问题不大 90 00:02:17,849 --> 00:02:18,569 嗯啊 91 00:02:18,569 --> 00:02:19,449 但你知道的 92 00:02:19,449 --> 00:02:22,370 这些股票出现4%至5%的跌幅 93 00:02:22,370 --> 00:02:22,610 是的 94 00:02:22,610 --> 00:02:24,560 道指想要 95 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:24,879 嗯 96 00:02:24,879 --> 00:02:25,520 有良好表现 97 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:27,960 这就是道指下跌1100点的原因 98 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,120 今日下跌超过1100点 99 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:31,800 但令人着迷的是 100 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,030 你也看到了我看到的 101 00:02:33,030 --> 00:02:36,939 看看我们过去一两个月买入的这些股票 102 00:02:36,939 --> 00:02:38,979 今天表现简直惊人 103 00:02:38,979 --> 00:02:40,419 看看Service Now这只股票 104 00:02:40,419 --> 00:02:45,020 如果告诉你Service Now股价上涨了6%，你会相信吗 105 00:02:45,020 --> 00:02:46,960 Salesforce上涨了5% 106 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,759 而道指却下跌了1100点 107 00:02:49,759 --> 00:02:53,379 简直难以置信 108 00:02:53,379 --> 00:02:55,759 这就是目前发生的情况 109 00:02:55,759 --> 00:02:57,560 如果你持有SAS股票 110 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,120 并且近期一直在买入 111 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:00,740 你会觉得这太棒了 112 00:03:00,740 --> 00:03:01,599 这样的股市 113 00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:02,879 简直是历史上最好的股市 114 00:03:02,879 --> 00:03:04,599 而道指却下跌了1100点 115 00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:06,099 真是令人着迷 116 00:03:06,099 --> 00:03:09,340 但要注意这些股票此前已被抛售 117 00:03:09,340 --> 00:03:10,699 你知道的 118 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:12,960 就像 119 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:13,840 我实在不知道该说什么 120 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:15,520 这些股票曾被看衰 121 00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:19,639 大约一周前左右 122 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,289 当那份最后的新闻通讯或子站文章 123 00:03:23,289 --> 00:03:24,629 不管他们怎么称呼 124 00:03:24,629 --> 00:03:26,830 当那份文章出来时 125 00:03:26,830 --> 00:03:27,430 内容是 126 00:03:27,430 --> 00:03:28,050 你知道的 127 00:03:28,050 --> 00:03:29,909 描绘了这个黑暗的未来 128 00:03:29,909 --> 00:03:31,009 所有人都失业了 129 00:03:31,009 --> 00:03:32,689 不再需要软件了 130 00:03:32,689 --> 00:03:36,289 这类型文章通常出现在底部股票中 131 00:03:36,289 --> 00:03:37,930 因为简直太离谱了 132 00:03:37,930 --> 00:03:38,949 你已经跌到谷底 133 00:03:38,949 --> 00:03:40,189 再跌也无意义 134 00:03:40,189 --> 00:03:41,840 当我们陷入如此黑暗 135 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,360 这些公司已无存在的必要 136 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,159 专业工作者也无用武之地 137 00:03:46,159 --> 00:03:47,340 一切都不需要了 138 00:03:47,340 --> 00:03:50,620 我们离现实究竟有多远 139 00:03:50,620 --> 00:03:53,099 而新的一天又过去了 140 00:03:53,099 --> 00:03:54,889 又是平凡的一天 141 00:03:54,889 --> 00:03:56,770 大家依然使用这些公司服务 142 00:03:56,770 --> 00:03:59,189 就像过去多年一样 143 00:03:59,189 --> 00:04:02,188 他们仍在注册并增加消费 144 00:04:02,188 --> 00:04:04,788 这就是数据所显示的 145 00:04:04,788 --> 00:04:05,088 现在 146 00:04:05,088 --> 00:04:06,819 你看过Salesforce的数据吗 147 00:04:06,819 --> 00:04:08,680 我浏览了所有这些公司的名单 148 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:09,939 它们表现比任何时候都好 149 00:04:09,939 --> 00:04:11,379 所有公司指引都令人惊叹 150 00:04:11,379 --> 00:04:12,419 数据惊人 151 00:04:12,419 --> 00:04:16,360 惊人的商业模式，生活继续向前 152 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,120 但你知道那里曾一度陷入黑暗 153 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,500 人们纷纷抛售这些股票 154 00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:23,259 你知道这是为什么 155 00:04:23,259 --> 00:04:24,358 谁知道呢对吧 156 00:04:24,358 --> 00:04:25,598 但他们终会给出理由 157 00:04:25,598 --> 00:04:28,559 看这里Adobe股票今日上涨约3.5% 158 00:04:28,559 --> 00:04:30,750 这走势相当不错 159 00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:32,449 过去几个交易日 160 00:04:32,449 --> 00:04:33,230 像Adobe这样的股票 161 00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:33,509 我是说 162 00:04:33,509 --> 00:04:34,970 我们调出五日图看看 163 00:04:34,970 --> 00:04:40,019 上涨近11%，再对比CRM 164 00:04:40,019 --> 00:04:42,300 接着我们查看ServiceNow 165 00:04:42,300 --> 00:04:43,939 这些股票 166 00:04:43,939 --> 00:04:46,689 如果你想谈论底部信号 167 00:04:46,689 --> 00:04:49,089 这些股票明显在筑底 168 00:04:49,089 --> 00:04:51,410 如果纳斯达克遭受足够冲击 169 00:04:51,410 --> 00:04:55,819 这些股票可能会最后爆发 170 00:04:55,819 --> 00:04:56,259 但 171 00:04:56,259 --> 00:05:00,000 假设纳斯达克不会出现10%以上的暴跌 172 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,519 这些股票已见底 173 00:05:02,519 --> 00:05:05,939 但如果突然导致纳斯达克下跌10-12% 174 00:05:05,939 --> 00:05:07,120 15% 175 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:08,709 呃 176 00:05:08,709 --> 00:05:11,149 很难不受影响 177 00:05:11,149 --> 00:05:11,730 嗯 178 00:05:11,730 --> 00:05:13,290 但目前来看 179 00:05:13,290 --> 00:05:16,379 只要市场不再大幅下跌 180 00:05:16,379 --> 00:05:17,879 这意味着ServiceNow 181 00:05:17,879 --> 00:05:20,800 Adobe、Salesforce等公司 182 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,319 它们均已见底 183 00:05:22,319 --> 00:05:24,100 请记住这一点 184 00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:25,639 这就是当前情况 185 00:05:25,639 --> 00:05:27,120 此时此刻TLZ 186 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:28,120 这是我的特斯拉对冲 187 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:29,529 今天表现不错 188 00:05:29,529 --> 00:05:30,709 但不算特别亮眼 189 00:05:30,709 --> 00:05:31,910 上涨3% 190 00:05:31,910 --> 00:05:33,209 略超3% 191 00:05:33,209 --> 00:05:34,069 是个好日子 192 00:05:34,069 --> 00:05:35,990 但考虑到1100点压力 193 00:05:35,990 --> 00:05:37,209 真希望它涨得更多 194 00:05:37,209 --> 00:05:40,668 远超这个水平PayPal 195 00:05:40,668 --> 00:05:41,949 女士们先生们 196 00:05:41,949 --> 00:05:44,329 PayPal正在发生有趣的事 197 00:05:44,329 --> 00:05:47,579 这再清楚不过了 198 00:05:47,579 --> 00:05:48,519 在我看来 199 00:05:48,519 --> 00:05:51,639 近期有人大量买入 200 00:05:51,639 --> 00:05:54,180 最终还是要回调 201 00:05:54,180 --> 00:05:57,790 我相信人们坚信PayPal会被收购 202 00:05:57,790 --> 00:06:00,370 毕竟还记得它曾一度跌至约四十美元 203 00:06:00,370 --> 00:06:01,389 不久前 204 00:06:01,389 --> 00:06:02,060 没错 205 00:06:02,060 --> 00:06:05,740 我认为人们坚信PayPal即将被收购 206 00:06:05,740 --> 00:06:08,220 这也是我们持续看到该股动能的原因 207 00:06:08,220 --> 00:06:10,899 像PayPal这样的股票今天怎么可能上涨 208 00:06:10,899 --> 00:06:12,079 股价上涨近2% 209 00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:13,300 可以说在SaaS领域 210 00:06:13,300 --> 00:06:13,560 股票 211 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:13,819 好的 212 00:06:13,819 --> 00:06:16,279 像这些股票早已被冷落 213 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,779 现在价值投资者开始入场买入 214 00:06:18,779 --> 00:06:20,350 但像PayPal这样的公司 215 00:06:20,350 --> 00:06:21,149 绝无可能 216 00:06:21,149 --> 00:06:21,550 可以说 217 00:06:21,550 --> 00:06:21,750 嗯 218 00:06:21,750 --> 00:06:24,709 道指下跌1100点而PayPal却上涨2% 219 00:06:24,709 --> 00:06:25,889 这完全说不通 220 00:06:25,889 --> 00:06:29,550 除非人们确信即将有收购消息 221 00:06:29,550 --> 00:06:31,910 这也是我认为该股持续被推高的原因 222 00:06:31,910 --> 00:06:34,959 股价已显著回升至低点之上 223 00:06:34,959 --> 00:06:36,639 大约一周前左右 224 00:06:36,639 --> 00:06:42,029 对的，现在背后应该有可信动向 225 00:06:42,029 --> 00:06:43,649 我理解，比如我之前相信 226 00:06:43,649 --> 00:06:45,600 Stripe否认了 227 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:46,120 呃 228 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:46,579 哦 229 00:06:46,579 --> 00:06:47,339 我得 230 00:06:47,339 --> 00:06:48,579 我在这里瞎折腾 231 00:06:48,579 --> 00:06:48,939 呃 232 00:06:48,939 --> 00:06:51,660 我相信Stripe否认了潜在收购 233 00:06:51,660 --> 00:06:52,240 但听我说 234 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:53,870 这是他们该做的 235 00:06:53,870 --> 00:06:56,389 在这个圈子里就是这样 236 00:06:56,389 --> 00:06:56,990 没错 237 00:06:56,990 --> 00:06:58,790 你应该否认这种传言 238 00:06:58,790 --> 00:06:59,310 是啊 239 00:06:59,310 --> 00:07:02,329 从低点回升至当前价位 240 00:07:02,329 --> 00:07:04,389 我得换掉另一个PayPal 241 00:07:04,389 --> 00:07:05,170 嗯 242 00:07:05,170 --> 00:07:07,139 上涨了2-3% 243 00:07:07,139 --> 00:07:08,040 23点 244 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:08,899 2-3% 245 00:07:08,899 --> 00:07:09,920 迈克尔·乔丹 246 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:10,439 这就是 247 00:07:10,439 --> 00:07:11,100 天啊 248 00:07:11,100 --> 00:07:11,579 PayPal 249 00:07:11,579 --> 00:07:12,879 迈克尔·乔丹的股票 250 00:07:12,879 --> 00:07:15,449 不过这很有趣啊 251 00:07:15,449 --> 00:07:17,079 这就是我所认为的情况 252 00:07:17,079 --> 00:07:18,100 所以我实际上 253 00:07:18,100 --> 00:07:19,579 看到这个真是令人意外 254 00:07:19,579 --> 00:07:20,639 在这样一个晴朗的日子里 255 00:07:20,639 --> 00:07:22,040 当道指下跌了1100点时 256 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:22,980 这太有趣了 257 00:07:22,980 --> 00:07:23,759 精灵 258 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:25,079 仍然是交易 259 00:07:25,978 --> 00:07:27,579 亚马逊今天股价上涨 260 00:07:27,579 --> 00:07:29,778 这对亚马逊来说是个重大胜利 261 00:07:29,778 --> 00:07:30,579 呃 262 00:07:30,579 --> 00:07:31,699 我感到惊讶 263 00:07:31,699 --> 00:07:32,920 风力并未减弱 264 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,540 鉴于中东局势和房地产动荡 265 00:07:35,540 --> 00:07:38,040 我以为本周可能涨到98 266 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:38,699 97点 267 00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:39,399 大概这个水平 268 00:07:39,399 --> 00:07:40,540 甚至可能到95 269 00:07:40,540 --> 00:07:42,918 这个表现比预期稍好 270 00:07:42,918 --> 00:07:44,850 我原本预料会这样 271 00:07:44,850 --> 00:07:46,209 除此之外 272 00:07:46,209 --> 00:07:47,990 那里没什么大动静 273 00:07:47,990 --> 00:07:51,639 这些都是轮动交易标的 274 00:07:51,639 --> 00:07:53,959 我今天感觉被重创了 275 00:07:53,959 --> 00:07:57,970 我们来看看房地产股 276 00:07:58,980 --> 00:07:59,699 再次上涨 277 00:08:00,860 --> 00:08:04,639 卡特彼勒受重创，正如我们讨论的约翰迪尔同样受挫 278 00:08:04,639 --> 00:08:05,879 这些谈判已经 279 00:08:05,879 --> 00:08:09,000 让我们明确这一点，调出一年图 280 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:10,029 卡特彼勒 281 00:08:10,589 --> 00:08:12,470 你在翻我的煎饼吗 282 00:08:12,470 --> 00:08:13,290 别闹了 283 00:08:13,290 --> 00:08:16,709 卡特彼勒过去一年上涨106% 284 00:08:17,910 --> 00:08:20,220 什么不是 285 00:08:20,220 --> 00:08:22,519 卡特彼勒加油 286 00:08:22,519 --> 00:08:22,740 天啊 287 00:08:22,740 --> 00:08:23,639 这太荒谬了 288 00:08:23,639 --> 00:08:25,339 我们说的就是卡特彼勒 289 00:08:25,339 --> 00:08:27,579 过去一年上涨106% 290 00:08:27,579 --> 00:08:28,759 我在翻煎饼 291 00:08:28,759 --> 00:08:31,019 约翰迪尔过去一年表现不错 292 00:08:31,019 --> 00:08:31,579 嗯两 293 00:08:31,579 --> 00:08:32,320 5% 294 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:33,299 这比较正常 295 00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:36,919 至少卡特彼勒翻倍上涨 296 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:38,080 呃 297 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:39,820 这简直疯狂 298 00:08:39,820 --> 00:08:40,200 没错 299 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,149 这个即将迎来大幅回调 300 00:08:42,149 --> 00:08:42,649 我的意思是 301 00:08:42,649 --> 00:08:45,950 现在这个婴儿的猫的估值到底如何 302 00:08:45,950 --> 00:08:48,389 我理解大家对数据中心加速发展的兴奋 303 00:08:48,389 --> 00:08:50,509 你需要大量机器来完成所有这些工作 304 00:08:50,509 --> 00:08:51,764 啰嗦啰嗦对吧 305 00:08:57,299 --> 00:08:59,919 猫类股票没有三十倍估值 306 00:08:59,919 --> 00:09:05,149 一个对于嗯没人 307 00:09:05,149 --> 00:09:06,169 这不行 308 00:09:06,169 --> 00:09:08,789 这类股票通常不应以当前价格交易 309 00:09:08,789 --> 00:09:09,950 这种四豌豆类型 310 00:09:09,950 --> 00:09:10,710 女士们先生们 311 00:09:10,710 --> 00:09:16,029 这类股票通常应在十到十八倍前值区间交易 312 00:09:16,029 --> 00:09:17,149 P 好的 313 00:09:17,149 --> 00:09:19,649 大约十到十八倍 314 00:09:19,649 --> 00:09:21,250 我们讨论的是三十倍以上前值 315 00:09:21,250 --> 00:09:22,350 P 不 316 00:09:22,350 --> 00:09:25,220 这不可能发生 317 00:09:25,220 --> 00:09:27,100 音乐 318 00:09:28,259 --> 00:09:29,159 这很糟糕 319 00:09:29,159 --> 00:09:29,720 哦 320 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,039 这太糟糕了 321 00:09:31,039 --> 00:09:32,220 太糟糕了 322 00:09:32,220 --> 00:09:33,309 嗯 323 00:09:33,669 --> 00:09:34,570 看看这个 324 00:09:34,570 --> 00:09:34,950 哦 325 00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:38,269 这是我最喜欢千禧x股票图表功能之一 326 00:09:38,269 --> 00:09:39,049 没错 327 00:09:39,049 --> 00:09:42,389 我们展示历史数据并分析 328 00:09:42,710 --> 00:09:44,049 还记得我告诉过你们的 329 00:09:44,049 --> 00:09:45,070 我之前说过什么 330 00:09:45,070 --> 00:09:45,889 我说过 331 00:09:45,889 --> 00:09:47,029 十到我说的 332 00:09:47,029 --> 00:09:47,610 十到十七 333 00:09:47,610 --> 00:09:48,509 十到十八 334 00:09:48,509 --> 00:09:51,009 看看猫类股票通常交易区间 335 00:09:51,009 --> 00:09:53,879 对的看看猫类股票通常交易区间 336 00:09:53,879 --> 00:09:54,679 而如今显然 337 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,129 豌豆股疯涨了 338 00:09:56,129 --> 00:09:57,129 看看这个 339 00:09:57,129 --> 00:09:59,970 快到三十几了约翰托尔普 340 00:09:59,970 --> 00:10:03,818 这绝对绝对绝对绝对绝对绝对绝对绝对绝对不行 341 00:10:03,818 --> 00:10:05,158 太糟糕了 342 00:10:05,158 --> 00:10:06,479 太糟糕了 343 00:10:06,479 --> 00:10:08,999 所以猫类股票很危险 344 00:10:08,999 --> 00:10:11,538 如果这只股暴跌 345 00:10:12,389 --> 00:10:17,210 将显著重创道指 346 00:10:17,210 --> 00:10:23,110 我想找rh rh 149 rh 347 00:10:23,110 --> 00:10:24,769 天啊 348 00:10:25,049 --> 00:10:26,789 rh在诱惑我 349 00:10:26,789 --> 00:10:28,610 真的非常诱人女士们先生们 350 00:10:28,610 --> 00:10:35,570 rh restoration hardware 非常非常非常吸引我 351 00:10:35,570 --> 00:10:39,950 显然他们的数字表现非常糟糕 352 00:10:40,269 --> 00:10:43,269 但我预计它们会触底反弹 353 00:10:43,269 --> 00:10:45,269 重新恢复活力 354 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:48,240 啊 355 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:49,559 关键在于 356 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,528 我是否要介入这支股票 357 00:10:52,528 --> 00:10:53,750 这很可怕 358 00:10:53,750 --> 00:10:55,409 但说句公道话 359 00:10:55,409 --> 00:10:56,149 很多时候 360 00:10:56,149 --> 00:10:58,429 最大的利润往往出现在买入股票时 361 00:10:58,429 --> 00:10:59,330 这让人感到害怕 362 00:10:59,330 --> 00:11:00,909 这就是RH的情况 363 00:11:00,909 --> 00:11:01,669 简直太糟糕了 364 00:11:01,669 --> 00:11:03,235 财务数据如此糟糕 365 00:11:04,230 --> 00:11:05,190 资产负债表 366 00:11:05,190 --> 00:11:05,710 垃圾 367 00:11:05,710 --> 00:11:07,799 RH二号表现 368 00:11:07,799 --> 00:11:09,860 股东权益发生了什么变化 369 00:11:09,860 --> 00:11:10,860 干得好 370 00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:11,960 加里·弗里德曼 371 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,500 干得好 372 00:11:13,500 --> 00:11:15,059 先生 373 00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:16,860 加里·弗里德曼 374 00:11:16,860 --> 00:11:18,200 把所有钱都花在棒球上 375 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:18,779 股票回购 376 00:11:18,779 --> 00:11:19,799 我认为他很聪明 377 00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:21,899 就他打造的这家公司而言 378 00:11:21,899 --> 00:11:23,080 品牌建设 379 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:24,549 我认为他很出色 380 00:11:24,549 --> 00:11:27,450 但那次回购我多年前就告诉过你们 381 00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:28,230 最愚蠢的举动 382 00:11:28,230 --> 00:11:29,210 他花了那么多钱 383 00:11:29,210 --> 00:11:34,210 他用大量现金在糟糕价位进行大规模回购 384 00:11:35,610 --> 00:11:39,169 让公司资产负债表陷入困境 385 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:41,139 这是个糟糕的决定 386 00:11:41,139 --> 00:11:42,500 真是个糟糕的决定 387 00:11:42,500 --> 00:11:44,328 不过事已至此 388 00:11:44,328 --> 00:11:46,769 如果不是因为那次 389 00:11:46,769 --> 00:11:48,609 我现在会买入RH 390 00:11:48,609 --> 00:11:50,208 因为资产负债表会更强健 391 00:11:50,208 --> 00:11:52,419 我会更放心买入 392 00:11:52,419 --> 00:11:55,109 天啊兄弟啊 393 00:11:55,109 --> 00:11:56,389 加里·弗里德曼 394 00:11:56,389 --> 00:11:59,489 他通过回购大幅减少流通股 395 00:11:59,489 --> 00:12:00,048 太棒了 396 00:12:00,048 --> 00:12:00,688 好的 397 00:12:00,688 --> 00:12:01,328 你知道的 398 00:12:01,328 --> 00:12:02,548 看看这个跌幅 399 00:12:02,548 --> 00:12:03,250 突然暴跌 400 00:12:06,110 --> 00:12:07,230 呃 401 00:12:07,230 --> 00:12:09,649 看看当前的资产 402 00:12:09,649 --> 00:12:10,009 啊 403 00:12:10,009 --> 00:12:12,230 公司资产大幅下跌 404 00:12:13,039 --> 00:12:14,100 哦 405 00:12:14,100 --> 00:12:15,960 这可能是最糟糕的一个了 406 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,120 看看这里千股图表 407 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:19,269 rh的科技股 408 00:12:19,269 --> 00:12:20,750 看看他们现金的变化 409 00:12:20,750 --> 00:12:21,909 他们曾经现金充裕 410 00:12:21,909 --> 00:12:23,909 曾经能安稳入睡 411 00:12:23,909 --> 00:12:24,620 持有rh 412 00:12:24,620 --> 00:12:26,100 看看他们的现金水平下降 413 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:26,940 规模太小了 414 00:12:26,940 --> 00:12:29,700 几乎看不见，再看看负债 415 00:12:33,500 --> 00:12:34,500 我想 416 00:12:34,500 --> 00:12:35,539 我真的想买入 417 00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:36,100 我只是不确定 418 00:12:36,100 --> 00:12:37,460 如果我能做到 419 00:12:37,460 --> 00:12:38,639 我真的不 420 00:12:38,639 --> 00:12:41,080 惠而浦的股价六十美元 421 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:42,500 这就像那种股票 422 00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:44,820 还有人愿意卖出这只股票吗 423 00:12:45,139 --> 00:12:48,029 惠而浦股价六十美元 424 00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:51,769 还有一家公司预计即将见底 425 00:12:51,769 --> 00:12:52,309 你知道的 426 00:12:52,309 --> 00:12:53,509 下个月或未来几月 427 00:12:53,509 --> 00:12:55,529 就商业模式而言 428 00:12:55,529 --> 00:12:57,799 预计之后会好转 429 00:12:57,799 --> 00:13:00,360 但这又是糟糕局面 430 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:01,299 显然没错 431 00:13:01,299 --> 00:13:03,799 看看公司营收趋势 432 00:13:03,799 --> 00:13:04,879 看看利润率 433 00:13:04,879 --> 00:13:07,529 太糟糕了，看看每股收益 434 00:13:07,529 --> 00:13:08,429 波动剧烈 435 00:13:08,429 --> 00:13:10,269 利润现金流也很差 436 00:13:10,269 --> 00:13:13,269 每股自由现金流太差 437 00:13:13,779 --> 00:13:16,139 运营现金流也很差 438 00:13:17,139 --> 00:13:19,700 公司运营收入略有改善 439 00:13:19,700 --> 00:13:20,659 这不错 440 00:13:20,659 --> 00:13:21,220 嗯 441 00:13:21,220 --> 00:13:25,659 股东权益明显优于我们的h 442 00:13:25,659 --> 00:13:28,179 我会更放心 443 00:13:29,159 --> 00:13:29,879 问题是 444 00:13:29,879 --> 00:13:33,610 只要熬过这场风暴 445 00:13:33,610 --> 00:13:34,429 挺过难关 446 00:13:34,429 --> 00:13:40,089 rh未来三到五年潜力更大 447 00:13:40,408 --> 00:13:46,068 惠而浦未来三年风险低于rh 448 00:13:46,068 --> 00:13:49,563 但上涨空间没那么大 449 00:13:52,328 --> 00:13:53,188 我还不确定 450 00:13:53,188 --> 00:13:54,308 拭目以待 451 00:13:54,308 --> 00:13:54,769 另外 452 00:13:54,769 --> 00:13:56,089 这家公司的资产负债表并不理想 453 00:13:56,089 --> 00:13:57,000 顺便说一句 454 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,100 但目前形势更好 455 00:13:59,100 --> 00:14:02,480 你晚上睡得比肯定在那里更安稳 456 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,149 好的，不过这大概涵盖了住房类股票 457 00:14:05,149 --> 00:14:07,950 现在看看零售交易者投资者类股票 458 00:14:09,149 --> 00:14:11,909 微策略近期有些受挫 459 00:14:11,909 --> 00:14:12,610 表现尚可 460 00:14:12,610 --> 00:14:14,370 比特币今日持稳 461 00:14:14,370 --> 00:14:16,960 持稳但仍在承压 462 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:17,779 哦我好奇 463 00:14:17,779 --> 00:14:19,120 它会跌破十五吗 464 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:20,419 这只股票一直 465 00:14:20,419 --> 00:14:22,500 哦天啊 466 00:14:22,500 --> 00:14:23,980 这是一只难看的股票 467 00:14:23,980 --> 00:14:24,960 难看的股票 468 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:25,679 我们呃 469 00:14:25,679 --> 00:14:26,460 罗宾汉 470 00:14:26,460 --> 00:14:29,500 我认为我看到凯西·伍德大量买入了股份 471 00:14:29,500 --> 00:14:31,889 这意味着它会继续下跌 472 00:14:31,889 --> 00:14:34,289 Coinbase今日下跌逾3% 473 00:14:34,289 --> 00:14:36,629 盘面稍有回落 474 00:14:36,629 --> 00:14:39,230 小狗狗币伴随反弹出现 475 00:14:39,230 --> 00:14:39,870 五点 476 00:14:39,870 --> 00:14:42,929 狗狗币今日上涨6% 477 00:14:42,929 --> 00:14:44,070 科技巨头 478 00:14:44,070 --> 00:14:44,610 你知道的 479 00:14:44,610 --> 00:14:45,850 科技巨头今日受压 480 00:14:45,850 --> 00:14:46,909 但情况并不太糟 481 00:14:46,909 --> 00:14:47,850 情况并不太糟 482 00:14:47,850 --> 00:14:48,429 顺便提一下 483 00:14:48,429 --> 00:14:52,740 低于200美元的都是买入机会 484 00:14:53,740 --> 00:14:54,419 嗯不过确实 485 00:14:54,419 --> 00:14:55,940 科技巨头今日跌幅不大 486 00:14:55,940 --> 00:14:57,889 多数盘面集中在道指 487 00:14:57,889 --> 00:14:59,830 没错，这些讨论实际上 488 00:14:59,830 --> 00:15:00,210 你知道的 489 00:15:00,210 --> 00:15:02,570 你不会觉得市场今天这么糟糕 490 00:15:02,570 --> 00:15:03,730 考虑到道指下跌 491 00:15:03,730 --> 00:15:06,509 今日道指下跌1100点 492 00:15:06,509 --> 00:15:07,950 这是不宜买入的信号 493 00:15:07,950 --> 00:15:11,029 当前主要问题在于 494 00:15:11,029 --> 00:15:11,710 如果你在想 495 00:15:11,710 --> 00:15:13,110 我们有两个主要问题 496 00:15:13,110 --> 00:15:13,629 好的 497 00:15:13,629 --> 00:15:15,860 看看十年期国债收益率 498 00:15:15,860 --> 00:15:16,759 正在上升 499 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:17,740 不太好 500 00:15:17,740 --> 00:15:19,850 这可不是好事，要避免看到 501 00:15:19,850 --> 00:15:21,649 不不不 502 00:15:21,649 --> 00:15:22,950 十年期国债收益率上升 503 00:15:22,950 --> 00:15:24,330 房贷利率持续走高 504 00:15:24,330 --> 00:15:25,789 让房地产市场陷入停滞 505 00:15:25,789 --> 00:15:27,500 这可不是好事啊 506 00:15:27,500 --> 00:15:28,379 我太开心了 507 00:15:28,379 --> 00:15:30,360 我两周前就锁定在5%了 508 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:31,700 我下一套房用7.5% 509 00:15:31,700 --> 00:15:32,820 万一有什么变化 510 00:15:32,820 --> 00:15:34,580 我觉得可能又要回到6%以上 511 00:15:34,580 --> 00:15:36,599 关于房贷利率这里 512 00:15:38,500 --> 00:15:39,379 这都挺好的 513 00:15:39,379 --> 00:15:41,679 通胀预期开始上升 514 00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:44,460 这又导致通胀预期进一步上升 515 00:15:44,460 --> 00:15:51,288 这意味着人们开始怀疑美联储降息幅度可能不及预期 516 00:15:51,288 --> 00:15:52,899 就在几个月前 517 00:15:52,899 --> 00:15:53,860 看看GSG 518 00:15:53,860 --> 00:15:55,639 这是一个大宗商品篮子指数 519 00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:56,220 哦不 520 00:15:57,299 --> 00:15:59,259 哦不 521 00:16:00,639 --> 00:16:01,580 哦不 522 00:16:01,580 --> 00:16:02,860 哦不 523 00:16:02,860 --> 00:16:04,440 哦不 524 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,179 天啊 525 00:16:06,179 --> 00:16:10,299 现在GSG年内已上涨近24% 526 00:16:11,740 --> 00:16:15,269 伙计们当它继续上涨 527 00:16:15,750 --> 00:16:19,570 意味着所有人都要为商品支付更高价格 528 00:16:19,570 --> 00:16:20,950 这可能意味着电价 529 00:16:20,950 --> 00:16:22,600 这可能意味着油价 530 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:24,360 可能涉及很多 531 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:25,799 我指的是所有东西 532 00:16:25,799 --> 00:16:28,899 如果通胀预期上升 533 00:16:28,899 --> 00:16:33,450 这可能让人们对美联储产生担忧 534 00:16:33,450 --> 00:16:34,889 今年甚至可能不再降息 535 00:16:36,250 --> 00:16:37,649 如果情况恶化到一定程度 536 00:16:37,649 --> 00:16:39,360 你可能会开始担忧 537 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:40,759 如果情况恶化到一定程度 538 00:16:40,759 --> 00:16:43,970 你可能会真正担忧美联储 539 00:16:43,970 --> 00:16:45,330 不得不再次加息 540 00:16:45,330 --> 00:16:47,009 这将对股市造成毁灭性打击 541 00:16:47,009 --> 00:16:48,370 绝对毁灭性 542 00:16:48,370 --> 00:16:50,370 希望不会这么极端 543 00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:51,839 但形势不容乐观 544 00:16:51,839 --> 00:16:53,899 油价今日上涨8%以上 545 00:16:53,899 --> 00:16:57,158 有人获得了2.96%的GTC利率 546 00:16:58,519 --> 00:16:59,450 不是我 547 00:16:59,450 --> 00:17:00,769 但有人做到了 548 00:17:00,769 --> 00:17:01,330 这很好 549 00:17:01,330 --> 00:17:02,590 富人依然保持富有 550 00:17:02,590 --> 00:17:04,359 呃 我有 551 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:05,960 但原油上涨了8% 552 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:06,319 我的意思是 553 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:07,400 看看今天的VIX指数 554 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:08,799 上涨2.1% 555 00:17:08,799 --> 00:17:09,640 天啊 556 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:14,559 但原油持续走高，今年涨幅超40% 557 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,559 天啊 558 00:17:18,269 --> 00:17:23,659 这可能对今夏汽油价格不利 559 00:17:24,338 --> 00:17:25,318 甚至春季 560 00:17:25,318 --> 00:17:26,699 但具体来说 561 00:17:26,699 --> 00:17:28,538 我总是考虑更长远的事 562 00:17:28,538 --> 00:17:30,230 所以我已经开始考虑夏季 563 00:17:30,230 --> 00:17:30,910 但没错 564 00:17:30,910 --> 00:17:31,690 这可不是好消息 565 00:17:31,690 --> 00:17:33,150 这些都不是好消息 566 00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:33,970 你还要继续上涨 567 00:17:33,970 --> 00:17:34,839 坏消息 568 00:17:34,839 --> 00:17:36,319 GSG飙升上涨 569 00:17:36,319 --> 00:17:37,140 三次波动 570 00:17:37,140 --> 00:17:38,759 GSG单日走势疯狂 571 00:17:38,759 --> 00:17:39,700 糟糕的消息 572 00:17:39,700 --> 00:17:40,839 原油将继续上涨 573 00:17:40,839 --> 00:17:41,740 糟糕的消息 574 00:17:43,980 --> 00:17:44,700 所以 575 00:17:44,700 --> 00:17:46,140 我没什么好消息给你 576 00:17:47,180 --> 00:17:49,490 关于短期价格走势 577 00:17:49,650 --> 00:17:51,210 我唯一的好消息是 578 00:17:51,210 --> 00:17:52,469 你知道是什么 579 00:17:52,469 --> 00:17:54,548 股市表现良好 580 00:17:54,548 --> 00:17:55,808 这当然算好消息对吧 581 00:17:55,808 --> 00:17:56,568 我有点高兴 582 00:17:56,568 --> 00:17:57,489 我们一直在买入 583 00:17:57,489 --> 00:18:00,900 另一个好消息是 584 00:18:00,900 --> 00:18:01,980 你能获得极佳价格 585 00:18:01,980 --> 00:18:03,779 你购买股票能获得更好价格 586 00:18:03,779 --> 00:18:05,039 如果你是长期投资者 587 00:18:05,039 --> 00:18:08,819 如果你担心今天或明天退休 588 00:18:09,210 --> 00:18:10,410 我不知道啊 589 00:18:10,410 --> 00:18:11,450 艰难时期 590 00:18:11,450 --> 00:18:12,150 呃 591 00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:13,529 但如果你担心退休 592 00:18:13,529 --> 00:18:14,250 五年后 593 00:18:14,250 --> 00:18:15,109 十年后 594 00:18:15,109 --> 00:18:15,890 二十年后 595 00:18:15,890 --> 00:18:17,160 三十年后 596 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,619 他们将以最低价买入股票 597 00:18:19,619 --> 00:18:21,220 请记住这一点 598 00:18:21,220 --> 00:18:21,480 好的 599 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:22,200 那我们继续 600 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,440 让我们来看看这些视频 601 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:25,839 第一个是汤姆李 602 00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:27,920 我只对汤姆李的部分做反应 603 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:28,279 具体来说 604 00:18:28,279 --> 00:18:29,279 里面还有一些其他部分 605 00:18:29,279 --> 00:18:32,130 但我真的很想听听九点后的霍姆利观点 606 00:18:32,130 --> 00:18:34,369 很高兴你回来分享你的看法 607 00:18:34,369 --> 00:18:37,960 当你观察这些市场的走势时，过去几天确实很有趣 608 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,740 我们的记者已经很好地梳理了当前议题 609 00:18:41,740 --> 00:18:43,799 这是投资者需要重点关注的内容 610 00:18:43,799 --> 00:18:44,579 你的看法呢 611 00:18:44,579 --> 00:18:45,789 嗯是的 612 00:18:45,789 --> 00:18:47,529 我觉得头条新闻让人感到害怕 613 00:18:47,529 --> 00:18:49,109 没人希望看到美元 614 00:18:49,109 --> 00:18:50,799 陷入冲突 615 00:18:50,799 --> 00:18:53,240 但注意到这一点非常准确 616 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,460 市场反应比预期好得多 617 00:18:56,460 --> 00:19:00,318 我认为我们还没到底部 618 00:19:00,318 --> 00:19:02,699 但这就是底部形成的迹象 619 00:19:02,699 --> 00:19:02,959 没错 620 00:19:02,959 --> 00:19:06,829 坏消息传来，市场却从容应对 621 00:19:06,829 --> 00:19:08,190 更重要的是 622 00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:09,710 我觉得我们已经调整了仓位 623 00:19:09,710 --> 00:19:10,789 重新布局了 624 00:19:10,789 --> 00:19:11,029 哦 625 00:19:11,029 --> 00:19:11,910 等等托尼 626 00:19:11,910 --> 00:19:13,049 请尊重 627 00:19:13,049 --> 00:19:15,400 先生请听 628 00:19:15,759 --> 00:19:18,960 市场对投资者非常有利 629 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:19,519 呃 630 00:19:19,519 --> 00:19:26,170 控制大资金的人现在很擅长 631 00:19:26,969 --> 00:19:30,249 如果被意外事件冲击，不让市场恐慌 632 00:19:30,249 --> 00:19:33,848 先期做空应对下行风险 633 00:19:33,848 --> 00:19:36,650 然后从那里开始波动 634 00:19:36,650 --> 00:19:39,089 甚至可以追溯到住房危机时期 635 00:19:39,089 --> 00:19:45,170 当时围绕住房问题有很多担忧 636 00:19:45,170 --> 00:19:48,109 在股市大幅下跌之前 637 00:19:48,109 --> 00:19:50,369 在类似情况下 638 00:19:50,369 --> 00:19:52,410 掉期合约开始重新估值 639 00:19:52,410 --> 00:19:53,309 以及类似事件 640 00:19:53,309 --> 00:19:55,230 当时普遍认为华尔街基金不会让某些产品重新定价 641 00:19:55,230 --> 00:20:03,400 直到他们做好了下行准备 642 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,380 这样他们也能在下行中获利 643 00:20:05,380 --> 00:20:07,940 然后开始重新定价这些产品 644 00:20:07,940 --> 00:20:10,200 有时股市就是这样运作的 645 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,180 你知道初始冲击会引发波动 646 00:20:13,180 --> 00:20:17,519 但就像他们努力维持市场稳定 647 00:20:17,519 --> 00:20:19,599 然后布局下行策略 648 00:20:19,599 --> 00:20:22,000 同时大量看跌期权被买入 649 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,069 空头头寸被建立 650 00:20:23,069 --> 00:20:27,230 然后突然间市场开始下跌，没有太多新信息 651 00:20:27,230 --> 00:20:28,150 信息还是一样 652 00:20:28,150 --> 00:20:29,670 但现在市场也开始关注了 653 00:20:29,670 --> 00:20:30,388 这简直太惊人了 654 00:20:30,388 --> 00:20:31,669 市场之前并不在意这个 655 00:20:31,669 --> 00:20:32,949 现在却开始在意这个了 656 00:20:32,949 --> 00:20:33,608 这有点奇怪 657 00:20:33,608 --> 00:20:34,128 等等 658 00:20:34,128 --> 00:20:36,159 我们允许它下跌 659 00:20:36,159 --> 00:20:37,919 我们已做好下跌准备 660 00:20:37,919 --> 00:20:39,338 这就是它可能下跌的时候 661 00:20:39,338 --> 00:20:40,618 所以你知道的 662 00:20:40,618 --> 00:20:41,138 这里有个 663 00:20:41,138 --> 00:20:44,419 市场总会存在一定程度的操纵 664 00:20:44,419 --> 00:20:46,059 你必须理解这一点 665 00:20:46,059 --> 00:20:47,099 这也是另一个原因 666 00:20:47,099 --> 00:20:48,940 甚至不必专注于交易 667 00:20:48,940 --> 00:20:49,380 你知道的 668 00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:51,220 长期持有优质公司 669 00:20:51,220 --> 00:20:53,539 你无法控制这些公司股价涨跌 670 00:20:53,539 --> 00:20:55,140 从短期股价波动来看 671 00:20:55,140 --> 00:20:57,019 这就是现状 672 00:20:57,019 --> 00:20:58,420 但要关注长期 673 00:20:58,420 --> 00:20:59,319 对于这些公司 674 00:20:59,319 --> 00:21:03,960 短期投机往往以失败告终 675 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:05,980 我认为会有大量机会 676 00:21:05,980 --> 00:21:07,799 什么能让我有信心说 677 00:21:07,799 --> 00:21:09,220 你知道这可能是底部信号 678 00:21:09,220 --> 00:21:10,519 你需要看到什么迹象 679 00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:11,579 嗯，好吧 680 00:21:11,579 --> 00:21:12,500 比如一些情况 681 00:21:12,500 --> 00:21:13,440 如果回溯到四月 682 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:14,460 一个简单的情况是 683 00:21:14,460 --> 00:21:17,319 VIX指数飙升至四十以上 684 00:21:17,319 --> 00:21:18,880 去年曾达到八十 685 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,140 但这次不会到八十 686 00:21:20,140 --> 00:21:23,660 随后的回撤将是明确信号 687 00:21:23,660 --> 00:21:26,069 因为这是大幅减仓 688 00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:27,900 另一个信号是 689 00:21:27,900 --> 00:21:31,660 出现新恐慌性新闻但金价持续下跌 690 00:21:31,660 --> 00:21:33,799 而股市当天转为上涨 691 00:21:33,799 --> 00:21:35,460 这意味着市场已释放压力 692 00:21:35,460 --> 00:21:39,140 我认为我们离底部不远了，你和大家一样密切关注原油 693 00:21:39,140 --> 00:21:40,039 这很有趣 694 00:21:40,039 --> 00:21:41,369 今日的一些评论 695 00:21:41,369 --> 00:21:42,130 瑞银 696 00:21:42,130 --> 00:21:44,130 我稍后解释 697 00:21:44,470 --> 00:21:47,609 VIX通常意味着买入时机 698 00:21:47,609 --> 00:21:49,539 与单纯相比 699 00:21:49,539 --> 00:21:50,079 你知道的 700 00:21:50,079 --> 00:21:51,819 你需要加载船只类型的情况 701 00:21:51,819 --> 00:21:55,740 我们预计全球能源供应只会出现轻微或短暂中断 702 00:21:55,740 --> 00:21:58,420 因此我们仍维持对美国股市的基本情景判断 703 00:21:58,420 --> 00:21:59,619 股票... 请再说一遍 704 00:21:59,619 --> 00:22:01,359 今年有望实现良好收益 705 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,480 摩根士丹利的凯蒂·休瑞蒂 706 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,700 在未来6到12个月内不太可能改变我们对股票的看涨观点 707 00:22:10,700 --> 00:22:11,059 是的 708 00:22:11,059 --> 00:22:13,259 我说啊我觉得油价... 709 00:22:13,259 --> 00:22:16,240 我们看到了一些在我看来合理的情况 710 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:21,720 油价因霍尔木兹海峡关闭或潜在关闭而飙升 711 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,119 但华盛顿的回应 712 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,440 我认为这可能更重要 713 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,329 我不认为华盛顿希望中期选举前油价高涨 714 00:22:30,329 --> 00:22:32,529 当然这对美国人非常不受欢迎 715 00:22:32,529 --> 00:22:33,750 我说这负担很重 716 00:22:33,750 --> 00:22:38,200 我将保持关注价格走势 717 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,960 我认为油价未大幅上涨是令人鼓舞的 718 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,000 休瑞蒂的报告重点分析了AI贸易 719 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,740 这确实很有趣 720 00:22:46,740 --> 00:22:48,779 在过去的几天里 721 00:22:48,779 --> 00:22:52,019 有些人可能将其视为避险资产的行情 722 00:22:52,019 --> 00:22:52,359 我说 723 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:53,349 看看现在 724 00:22:53,349 --> 00:22:54,430 微软上涨了 725 00:22:54,430 --> 00:22:55,170 我涨了 726 00:22:55,170 --> 00:22:56,170 亚马逊上涨了 727 00:22:56,170 --> 00:22:59,150 英伟达最近几天表现更好 728 00:22:59,150 --> 00:23:01,190 你怎么看这个问题呢 729 00:23:01,190 --> 00:23:02,009 在我们看来 730 00:23:02,009 --> 00:23:04,250 三月标志着底部的形成 731 00:23:04,250 --> 00:23:05,920 因为软件行业 732 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,799 马斯克和加密货币 733 00:23:07,799 --> 00:23:10,640 我们认为它们已完成了90%的调整 734 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,190 它们的冬季或下跌周期 735 00:23:13,190 --> 00:23:13,690 呃 736 00:23:13,690 --> 00:23:15,069 它们表现优于大盘 737 00:23:15,069 --> 00:23:16,670 我认为这是领涨信号 738 00:23:16,670 --> 00:23:18,910 但从基本面来看你完全正确 739 00:23:18,910 --> 00:23:20,150 如果我们继续上涨 740 00:23:20,150 --> 00:23:22,509 如果我们遭遇全球贸易中断 741 00:23:22,509 --> 00:23:23,509 你仍然需要AI技术 742 00:23:23,509 --> 00:23:24,789 你仍然需要马斯克相关板块 743 00:23:24,789 --> 00:23:27,359 因此它们实际上是优质基本面故事 744 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,700 这个故事也有技术面因素 745 00:23:29,700 --> 00:23:31,079 请稍等我继续 746 00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:32,779 其中一个关键问题 747 00:23:32,779 --> 00:23:32,960 好的 748 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,329 让我先解释一下VIX指数 749 00:23:36,329 --> 00:23:39,470 当你知道定价非常优惠时 750 00:23:39,470 --> 00:23:41,170 和勉强可以购买相比 751 00:23:41,170 --> 00:23:42,170 这类情况 752 00:23:42,170 --> 00:23:42,650 好的 753 00:23:42,650 --> 00:23:46,170 说到VIX指数 754 00:23:46,609 --> 00:23:49,690 当看到VIX升至25 755 00:23:49,690 --> 00:23:51,349 比如超过25 756 00:23:51,349 --> 00:23:54,029 通常能获得不错的股票价格 757 00:23:54,029 --> 00:23:55,089 你应该买入 758 00:23:55,089 --> 00:23:57,359 看到它升至30 759 00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:58,720 你需要 760 00:23:58,720 --> 00:23:59,599 我们暂且称 761 00:23:59,599 --> 00:23:59,960 加大 762 00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:00,559 买入力度 763 00:24:00,559 --> 00:24:02,299 看到升至35 764 00:24:02,299 --> 00:24:04,409 必须重仓买入 765 00:24:04,608 --> 00:24:06,509 看到升至40 766 00:24:06,509 --> 00:24:08,269 需要全力加仓 767 00:24:08,269 --> 00:24:09,730 看到升至50 768 00:24:09,730 --> 00:24:11,430 基本上要全仓入市 769 00:24:11,430 --> 00:24:13,950 几乎在所有情况下 770 00:24:13,950 --> 00:24:16,449 你可以回溯VIX走势 771 00:24:16,449 --> 00:24:18,788 基本上每次 772 00:24:18,788 --> 00:24:23,279 每当VIX突破50时就应该全仓 773 00:24:23,279 --> 00:24:23,960 嗯 774 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,869 我想不出任何不适用的情况 775 00:24:26,869 --> 00:24:27,690 简直 776 00:24:27,690 --> 00:24:29,509 我可以展示任何固定 777 00:24:29,509 --> 00:24:32,029 X150以上的时期并应全仓入市 778 00:24:32,029 --> 00:24:32,829 就像 779 00:24:32,829 --> 00:24:35,029 获得超值钢铁交易 780 00:24:35,029 --> 00:24:36,910 比如40以上 781 00:24:36,910 --> 00:24:39,170 只需全力加仓 782 00:24:39,170 --> 00:24:41,029 类似情况 783 00:24:41,029 --> 00:24:42,599 所以是的 784 00:24:42,599 --> 00:24:43,500 这就是全部 785 00:24:43,500 --> 00:24:46,039 我们记住这些VIX数值 786 00:24:46,039 --> 00:24:49,119 也许某天会首次突破 787 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,000 但需记住这是首次 788 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,920 最终总会成功 789 00:24:55,769 --> 00:24:57,250 你想评论这个 790 00:24:57,250 --> 00:24:58,009 是的 791 00:24:58,009 --> 00:24:58,529 我意思是 792 00:24:58,529 --> 00:25:01,490 我几乎同意Ryskin所说 793 00:25:01,490 --> 00:25:01,609 哦 794 00:25:01,609 --> 00:25:03,230 暂且搁置美国经济 795 00:25:03,230 --> 00:25:05,019 尽管他们重新开放后 796 00:25:05,019 --> 00:25:06,220 股市上涨 797 00:25:06,220 --> 00:25:10,750 随后飙升至新高 798 00:25:10,750 --> 00:25:12,730 这向人们传递了信号 799 00:25:12,730 --> 00:25:14,250 你知道你知道的 800 00:25:14,250 --> 00:25:18,089 战时对市场而言不一定是坏事 801 00:25:18,089 --> 00:25:20,369 当然我们不在一战时期 802 00:25:20,369 --> 00:25:21,170 二战时期 803 00:25:21,170 --> 00:25:22,369 所以让我们希望如此 804 00:25:22,369 --> 00:25:24,489 并且不会发展成那样 805 00:25:24,489 --> 00:25:24,689 呃 806 00:25:24,689 --> 00:25:26,608 但它确实有过那些阶段 807 00:25:26,608 --> 00:25:26,888 你知道的 808 00:25:26,888 --> 00:25:28,128 当VIX指数超过二十 809 00:25:29,169 --> 00:25:29,409 你知道的 810 00:25:29,409 --> 00:25:31,048 我知道汤姆希望它突破四十 811 00:25:31,048 --> 00:25:32,209 那就是峰值 812 00:25:32,209 --> 00:25:34,539 这可能标志着底部 813 00:25:34,539 --> 00:25:36,339 但这意味着大量对冲行为 814 00:25:36,339 --> 00:25:37,299 正在发生 815 00:25:37,299 --> 00:25:39,339 大量风险 816 00:25:40,299 --> 00:25:45,869 如果我们度过这场战争的话 817 00:25:45,869 --> 00:25:48,490 我们的目标得以实现 818 00:25:48,490 --> 00:25:49,289 我认为我们 819 00:25:50,289 --> 00:25:53,059 我们准备好在2026年迎来大牛市 820 00:25:53,619 --> 00:25:55,240 你对此有何看法 821 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:56,000 是的 822 00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:00,630 我几乎同意Rinsky和杰里米·西格尔说的全部观点 823 00:26:00,630 --> 00:26:04,029 这正是创造性的所有标志 824 00:26:04,029 --> 00:26:07,319 你竟敢称他为西格尔先生 825 00:26:07,319 --> 00:26:12,869 他是教授杰里米·西格尔 826 00:26:12,869 --> 00:26:14,529 请尊重他的名字 827 00:26:14,529 --> 00:26:15,529 绝佳机会 828 00:26:15,529 --> 00:26:18,890 我认为投资者需要超越头条新闻 829 00:26:18,890 --> 00:26:21,220 或许考虑三个月 830 00:26:21,220 --> 00:26:23,150 甚至一个月后 831 00:26:23,150 --> 00:26:25,630 我们只需度过这个底部 832 00:26:25,630 --> 00:26:28,029 但我们已知领导力可能来自何处 833 00:26:28,029 --> 00:26:29,029 是软件行业 834 00:26:29,029 --> 00:26:32,559 七大科技股和加密货币 835 00:26:32,559 --> 00:26:33,859 教授对此怎么看 836 00:26:33,859 --> 00:26:37,279 关于汤姆·李所说的内容，请听 837 00:26:37,279 --> 00:26:39,539 不要关注一个月或三个月后 838 00:26:39,539 --> 00:26:41,319 因为谁也不知道会发生什么 839 00:26:41,319 --> 00:26:42,680 市场可能更混乱 840 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:43,240 一个月后 841 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:43,880 三个月后 842 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:44,799 不要关注这些 843 00:26:44,799 --> 00:26:47,019 我建议关注三年后 844 00:26:47,019 --> 00:26:48,539 五年后的市场状况 845 00:26:48,539 --> 00:26:49,400 七年后 846 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,648 没错我们有更多确定性 847 00:26:51,648 --> 00:26:54,128 但接下来一到三个月会发生什么 848 00:26:54,128 --> 00:26:56,950 兄弟谁知道呢就像你知道的 849 00:26:56,950 --> 00:26:59,150 中东局势会如何发展 850 00:26:59,150 --> 00:27:00,730 是否会完全失控 851 00:27:00,730 --> 00:27:02,309 是否会更加可控 852 00:27:02,309 --> 00:27:07,349 油价会涨到一百还是二百？GSG还会继续飞行吗 853 00:27:07,349 --> 00:27:11,940 这是否会让美联储陷入无法年内降息的困境 854 00:27:11,940 --> 00:27:14,119 这对市场意味着什么？是否会持续走高 855 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:14,880 继续上涨 856 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,679 因此房地产市场持续低迷 857 00:27:17,679 --> 00:27:19,118 天啊 858 00:27:19,118 --> 00:27:23,019 随后是否会引发对经济的诸多担忧 859 00:27:23,019 --> 00:27:24,240 因为 860 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,200 通胀问题 861 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:27,960 但通胀 862 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,720 美联储无法控制油价 863 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:30,720 像能源价格高涨这类问题 864 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,279 这也意味着美联储可能开始降息 865 00:27:34,279 --> 00:27:37,400 因为他们更担忧经济状况而非油价 866 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:38,759 而非像油价这类 867 00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:39,799 他们无法控制的因素 868 00:27:39,799 --> 00:27:41,960 美联储加息到百分之一百万 869 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,130 但这并不能让油价立即下降 870 00:27:45,130 --> 00:27:46,349 这不是运作方式 871 00:27:46,349 --> 00:27:50,199 其中一个关键因素是GSG持续走高 872 00:27:50,199 --> 00:27:51,838 虽然可能看到大量通胀 873 00:27:51,838 --> 00:27:53,199 数据与汽油价格相关 874 00:27:53,199 --> 00:27:54,138 他们无法干预 875 00:27:54,138 --> 00:28:00,289 但如果对经济造成足够负面影响，美联储可能更快降息 876 00:28:00,289 --> 00:28:02,130 超出市场预期 877 00:28:02,130 --> 00:28:03,539 接下来一到三个月 878 00:28:03,539 --> 00:28:04,099 谁知道呢 879 00:28:04,099 --> 00:28:05,819 不要关注一个月后 880 00:28:05,819 --> 00:28:07,099 不要关注三个月后 881 00:28:07,099 --> 00:28:08,699 因为这很混乱 882 00:28:08,699 --> 00:28:10,659 但应关注三年后 883 00:28:10,659 --> 00:28:10,999 好的 884 00:28:10,999 --> 00:28:12,499 这就是我的看法 885 00:28:12,499 --> 00:28:15,380 以及汤姆建议的优质公司 886 00:28:15,380 --> 00:28:19,159 或许会重新激活大型股交易 887 00:28:22,618 --> 00:28:25,289 这些通常更具防御性 888 00:28:25,730 --> 00:28:26,150 是的 889 00:28:26,150 --> 00:28:26,849 我确实记得 890 00:28:26,849 --> 00:28:30,329 以前认为苹果是大蓝筹防御股 891 00:28:30,329 --> 00:28:30,960 嗯 892 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:31,720 你知道的 893 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:32,119 对啊 894 00:28:36,700 --> 00:28:39,859 没有任何股票完全免疫 895 00:28:39,859 --> 00:28:44,380 我们真的需要度过这个阶段 896 00:28:44,380 --> 00:28:50,029 我认为在价值股和成长股中牛市将持续 897 00:28:50,029 --> 00:28:50,470 呃 898 00:28:50,470 --> 00:28:53,589 而旋转股同样包括魔七股 899 00:28:53,589 --> 00:28:54,430 但你知道的 900 00:28:54,430 --> 00:28:58,450 让我告诉你，当你观察像英伟达这样的魔七股 901 00:28:58,450 --> 00:29:00,279 目前股价在二十几美元 902 00:29:00,279 --> 00:29:03,480 甚至有人认为市盈率更低 903 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,319 这明显存在大幅折价 904 00:29:06,319 --> 00:29:10,539 让我告诉你，对于一家年增长30%到40%的公司 905 00:29:10,539 --> 00:29:11,019 是的 906 00:29:11,019 --> 00:29:11,380 你会 907 00:29:11,380 --> 00:29:12,000 你会同意 908 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:12,259 不过 909 00:29:12,259 --> 00:29:13,539 从大局来看 910 00:29:13,539 --> 00:29:16,099 随着我们谈话接近尾声 911 00:29:16,099 --> 00:29:17,940 这种能量 912 00:29:17,940 --> 00:29:22,690 能源和油价是当前最需关注的因素 913 00:29:22,690 --> 00:29:23,829 不仅对 914 00:29:23,829 --> 00:29:24,029 呃 915 00:29:24,029 --> 00:29:25,390 从市场情绪角度 916 00:29:25,390 --> 00:29:29,259 显然从经济影响层面 917 00:29:29,259 --> 00:29:34,880 以及它与美联储的关系和未来走向 918 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:35,400 是的 919 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:36,640 正如汤姆提到的 920 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:37,319 我意思是 921 00:29:37,319 --> 00:29:37,920 你知道我们即将迎来中期选举 922 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,179 嗯 923 00:29:40,179 --> 00:29:41,259 你知道在特朗普任内油价一直低迷 924 00:29:41,259 --> 00:29:45,219 嗯，天然气批发价格 925 00:29:45,219 --> 00:29:45,898 让我告诉你 926 00:29:45,898 --> 00:29:47,880 汽油批发价格 927 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:48,720 让我告诉你 928 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,220 过去三天上涨了50美分 929 00:29:52,220 --> 00:29:52,440 现在 930 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,710 大约需要一周时间传导至加油站 931 00:29:54,710 --> 00:29:57,890 我计算过如果油价上涨 932 00:29:57,890 --> 00:29:58,309 你知道的 933 00:29:58,309 --> 00:29:59,210 50美分 934 00:29:59,210 --> 00:30:00,089 我们将 935 00:30:00,089 --> 00:30:05,549 我们将处于拜登执政期间的油价水平 936 00:30:05,549 --> 00:30:09,569 但不再有特朗普早期依赖的折扣 937 00:30:09,569 --> 00:30:10,809 所以这不仅 938 00:30:10,809 --> 00:30:11,089 你知道的 939 00:30:11,089 --> 00:30:12,390 关于美联储的问题 940 00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:13,490 以及经济状况 941 00:30:13,490 --> 00:30:19,388 这对汤姆的政治前景至关重要 942 00:30:19,388 --> 00:30:20,288 你最后发言 943 00:30:20,288 --> 00:30:20,989 是的 944 00:30:20,989 --> 00:30:21,509 嗯 945 00:30:21,509 --> 00:30:22,759 我认为 946 00:30:22,759 --> 00:30:25,460 投资者只需保持耐心 947 00:30:25,460 --> 00:30:26,500 谨慎且警惕 948 00:30:26,500 --> 00:30:27,420 有一定火力 949 00:30:27,420 --> 00:30:29,380 但我觉得机会正在浮现 950 00:30:29,380 --> 00:30:29,579 各位先生 951 00:30:29,579 --> 00:30:31,880 非常感谢这次对话 952 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:32,420 一如既往 953 00:30:32,420 --> 00:30:32,940 好吧 954 00:30:32,940 --> 00:30:35,489 我们进去处理下一个任务吧 955 00:30:35,489 --> 00:30:37,648 在英伟达CEO Jensen Huang发言后 956 00:30:37,648 --> 00:30:38,740 Jensen Huang提到 957 00:30:38,740 --> 00:30:40,759 可能是有史以来最重要的软件发布 958 00:30:40,759 --> 00:30:43,559 可能有史以来最重要的是亲爱的杰尔波萨还有更多 959 00:30:43,559 --> 00:30:45,349 这是重大声明 960 00:30:45,630 --> 00:30:48,630 混淆的Open Claw听起来像爪子 961 00:30:48,630 --> 00:30:49,509 但它并非爪子 962 00:30:49,509 --> 00:30:50,829 但它本意是模仿Claude 963 00:30:50,829 --> 00:30:51,930 但现在这个人任职于 964 00:30:51,930 --> 00:30:55,380 你知道OpenAI最初是Claude机器人 965 00:30:55,380 --> 00:30:57,440 所以它实际上基于Claude构建 966 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,079 之后发生了许多事情 967 00:30:59,079 --> 00:31:01,940 OpenAI最终获得此人的过程真是有趣 968 00:31:01,940 --> 00:31:04,650 但归根结底这不仅仅是Open Clots相关 969 00:31:04,650 --> 00:31:06,809 更多是能自主运作的智能体 970 00:31:06,809 --> 00:31:10,599 如果黄仁勋和硅谷其他谈论此事的人 971 00:31:10,599 --> 00:31:11,369 如果他们正确 972 00:31:11,369 --> 00:31:15,529 那么AI智能体将终结互联网中间商 973 00:31:15,529 --> 00:31:19,558 原因在于整个互联网是为人类设计的，人们搜索浏览 974 00:31:19,558 --> 00:31:20,278 比较选项 975 00:31:20,278 --> 00:31:21,420 点击广告 976 00:31:21,420 --> 00:31:23,200 智能体不会做这些 977 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,660 它已知你的需求 978 00:31:24,660 --> 00:31:26,039 或在后台分析 979 00:31:26,039 --> 00:31:29,259 因此不会浏览十家酒店网站或读评论 980 00:31:29,259 --> 00:31:32,029 直接从提示跳转到交易 981 00:31:32,029 --> 00:31:35,529 可能仍通过API和数据集获取信息 982 00:31:35,529 --> 00:31:37,710 完全绕过前台入口 983 00:31:37,710 --> 00:31:42,219 赢家将是终端和管道，比如航空公司 984 00:31:42,219 --> 00:31:43,818 而非Expedia酒店 985 00:31:43,818 --> 00:31:44,419 而非Booking 986 00:31:44,419 --> 00:31:45,000 Com 987 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:45,819 你的银行 988 00:31:45,819 --> 00:31:48,920 而非NerdWallet等中间商 989 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,380 基础设施领域将获益 990 00:31:50,380 --> 00:31:52,589 如Stripe、Plaid和Shopify昨日 991 00:31:52,589 --> 00:31:53,130 凯利 992 00:31:53,130 --> 00:31:53,470 呃 993 00:31:53,470 --> 00:31:54,029 boo 994 00:31:54,029 --> 00:31:54,589 Aaron Levy 995 00:31:54,589 --> 00:31:59,299 他表示智能体需要员工或人类所需的一切 996 00:31:59,299 --> 00:32:00,720 包括邮件存储和身份管理 997 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,589 而这实际上可能是一百倍于现有客户基数 998 00:32:04,589 --> 00:32:06,069 所以这不是软件即服务 999 00:32:06,069 --> 00:32:08,690 而是面向代理的软件即服务 1000 00:32:08,690 --> 00:32:10,519 这可能是一个巨大的市场 1001 00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:12,480 这就是黄仁勋称Open Claw为 1002 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,849 有史以来最重要的软件发布 1003 00:32:14,849 --> 00:32:19,130 一个全天运行在你设备上的个人AI无需等待提示 1004 00:32:19,130 --> 00:32:19,849 这位创作者 1005 00:32:19,849 --> 00:32:20,289 正如你所说 1006 00:32:20,289 --> 00:32:21,589 刚被OpenAI录用 1007 00:32:21,589 --> 00:32:24,779 这里的势头前所未有，远超开源领域 1008 00:32:24,779 --> 00:32:26,779 市场也开始嗅到这个信号 1009 00:32:26,779 --> 00:32:28,940 像Twilio和Shopify这样的公司 1010 00:32:28,940 --> 00:32:31,019 这些是代理运行的基础架构 1011 00:32:31,019 --> 00:32:32,740 过去一个月股价大幅反弹 1012 00:32:32,740 --> 00:32:36,199 这帮助推动了IGG V的回升 1013 00:32:36,439 --> 00:32:36,979 是的 1014 00:32:36,979 --> 00:32:39,439 故事的核心在于 1015 00:32:39,439 --> 00:32:40,919 关于整个局势 1016 00:32:40,919 --> 00:32:41,959 正确方向是 1017 00:32:41,959 --> 00:32:44,369 将出现新的 1018 00:32:44,369 --> 00:32:46,210 巨大的机遇正在开启 1019 00:32:46,210 --> 00:32:47,910 每当出现这种新技术时 1020 00:32:47,910 --> 00:32:50,349 很多人会从负面视角看待 1021 00:32:50,349 --> 00:32:50,609 比如 1022 00:32:50,609 --> 00:32:50,890 哦 1023 00:32:50,890 --> 00:32:53,409 这可能导致公司失去市场份额 1024 00:32:53,409 --> 00:32:55,969 可能让某些员工失业 1025 00:32:55,969 --> 00:32:56,229 没错 1026 00:32:56,229 --> 00:32:57,409 以及各种类似问题 1027 00:32:57,409 --> 00:33:03,390 历史上每个新技术都创造无数新机遇 1028 00:33:03,390 --> 00:33:05,049 简直难以置信对吧 1029 00:33:05,049 --> 00:33:10,740 所以我总是从乐观角度看待 1030 00:33:10,740 --> 00:33:13,680 因为最终总是证明正确 1031 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,299 从未出现过悲观结局 1032 00:33:17,299 --> 00:33:21,868 纵观商业史和所有创新历程 1033 00:33:21,868 --> 00:33:25,989 从电力到电灯泡 1034 00:33:25,989 --> 00:33:26,769 到互联网 1035 00:33:26,769 --> 00:33:27,250 到 1036 00:33:27,250 --> 00:33:28,069 你知道的软件 1037 00:33:28,069 --> 00:33:29,210 这些都如此 1038 00:33:29,210 --> 00:33:31,029 硬件和半导体 1039 00:33:31,029 --> 00:33:34,849 最终都创造长期巨大机遇 1040 00:33:34,849 --> 00:33:37,750 创造更多高薪岗位 1041 00:33:37,750 --> 00:33:39,140 远超以往水平 1042 00:33:39,140 --> 00:33:39,480 好的 1043 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,740 感谢大家收看 1044 00:33:40,740 --> 00:33:41,059 一如既往 1045 00:33:41,059 --> 00:33:42,359 希望你喜欢今天的视频 1046 00:33:42,359 --> 00:33:44,430 我有个免费资源送给大家 1047 00:33:44,430 --> 00:33:46,809 今天看起来那里有一个固定评论，关于 1048 00:33:46,809 --> 00:33:48,109 我觉得我们已经有一千人了 1049 00:33:48,109 --> 00:33:50,410 到目前为止我得到了这个资源 1050 00:33:50,410 --> 00:33:51,289 基本上就是这个意思 1051 00:33:51,289 --> 00:33:52,890 我上周为你们整理了这个 1052 00:33:52,890 --> 00:33:53,890 就像一个测试 1053 00:33:53,890 --> 00:33:57,589 然后你大致检查一下，对吧 1054 00:33:57,589 --> 00:33:58,119 是的 1055 00:33:58,119 --> 00:33:59,799 看看你知道多少这些内容 1056 00:33:59,799 --> 00:34:01,319 它会给出一个结果在 1057 00:34:01,319 --> 00:34:03,319 如果你更像是市场的赌徒 1058 00:34:03,319 --> 00:34:04,359 或者你像 1059 00:34:04,359 --> 00:34:06,960 在你还有很多要学习的地方 1060 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,699 但你知道你在进步 1061 00:34:09,699 --> 00:34:10,900 你走在正确的道路上 1062 00:34:10,900 --> 00:34:13,500 或者你已经是股票市场的天才 1063 00:34:13,500 --> 00:34:15,000 所以这是一个有趣的测试给你们 1064 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:15,980 确保你们享受这个 1065 00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:17,420 这就是下方的固定评论 1066 00:34:17,420 --> 00:34:19,978 然后你就知道在这个游戏中实际处于什么位置 1067 00:34:19,978 --> 00:34:21,519 衷心祝福，祝你有个美好的一天
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