美股 皆大欢喜的一天！ISRG慢慢等！LLY回归、SNOW爆破！MSFT放量，软件普涨！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年5月28号

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周四晚上的8.25分

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今天的四大指数啊

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除了开盘前的20分钟

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稍微有那么一点点的迷路

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剩余的时间是集体走高

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全天呢都是维持在高位

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也没有回落

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今天的半导体和七大权重是今天的核动力啊

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呃医疗保健板块呢在李来的带领下

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是领涨标普11个板块呃

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公共事业今天表现的比较差

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所以今天呢

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大家之前的一些也比较对立的股票啊

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包括像权重股

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半导体

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还有软件啊

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今天大家都是一起涨

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皆大欢喜的一天

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特别是大家持仓集中度比较高的几只股票呢

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其实呃在今天啊

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也是最近差不多接近两个月来比较罕见的

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应该在我的印象中是集体上涨的

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大概是第三个交易日啊

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呃大多数时候呢

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他们之间的这个对立关系都比较的明显好额

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那么今天的消息面上呢依旧是比较的混乱

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呃

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美国呢是三天内啊

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第二次袭击了伊朗阿巴斯港的一处军事目标

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而伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队

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则以袭击美国空军基地作为回应

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呃

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另外一方面呢还有媒体报道说

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每一谈判就一份为期60天的谅解备忘录

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达成一致

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但是呢这个协议仍需要美国总统批准

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后面啊

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紧接着

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伊朗的塔斯尼姆通讯社又否认了媒体的报道啊

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说协议的文本还没有最终确定啊

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所以呢目前中东呢是平行世界啊

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这个呢到底在怎么样

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桌子上怎么样

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桌子下怎么样

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现在搞不清楚啊

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现在大家每天的消息都是盘中来回的去走

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但市场呢还是计价比较明显啊

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比如说布伦特原油这边越来越接近旧市啊

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一旦跌破90之后啊

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其实呢市场对于整个目前的中东的原油的

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供给的担忧状况呢呃是明显会放松的

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因为现在我们看到的情况就是

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其实从呃原油的其他的一些出口的补充来讲

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逐渐的恢复上来

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另外呢包括全球的成品油的供应啊

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现在呢也没有之前那么紧张

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所以只要油价没有回去啊

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那么现在的状况呢

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大家呢似乎就不太关心到底那边怎么样啊

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因为其实最终当时的这个霍尔木兹海峡

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是否开放

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最大的影响是担心油价维持在110上方

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往上走

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那现在呢都跌到90块了啊

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市场呢就把这个事情呃

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就呃你当这个开了

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他当没开都行

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但市场的计价啊是现在呢已经是开放啊

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但我们现在呃之前呢曾经讲过一次

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关于霍尔木兹海峡

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为什么现在市场是这么走呃

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整体来讲呢

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整个的标普的情况

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其实有很多的股票

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在前一段时间是创出了52周新低啊

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最近有所反弹

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那么标普里边上涨指数它其实是比较失真的

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大家说那霍尔木兹海峡比方说没有开放

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它为什么指数还在上面

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因为标普的指数从3月底啊

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就4月份到5月份

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这两个月以来

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实际上大概有19%的这个反弹幅度吗

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这不是涨了很多吗

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大家知道是由多少只个股贡献的吗

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其中十只个股推动了标普

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其中69%的涨幅

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再如果你把这个范围扩大到20只

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差不多超过80%

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就是这由俄这20只股票贡献的

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剩下的股票呢都在打酱油

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所以指数就等于前面这20只个股啊

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所以目前指数的状况是这样

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那么真正的受到油价和通胀影响的

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有一些股票实际上在前一段时间

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包括像呃航空对吧

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航包括像邮轮

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包括像旅游预订

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其实走的都比较的差啊

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那个是实实在在受到了影响

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那么像半导体呃

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像这个科技股它本身呢受到的这个通胀影响啊

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对于能源企业的

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油价的这个敏感程度没那么高啊

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所以现在就出现了这个两极分化的状况

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所以呢目前标普的这个整体的状况额

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点位呢我们后面以后再说啊

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暂时呢其实看不看标普和纳指的状况

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指数状况这个没有什么太大的关系

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好额

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然后呢呃今天的市场是比较简单的

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可说的东西并不多啊

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我就简单的把这个PCE的数据过一下啊

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然后呢今天会简单的跟踪一下

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今天在列表上的个股啊

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特别是有一些异动的呃

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然后呢把这个时间也稍微的缩短一点

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因为快到周末了

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有点累啊

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今天呢咱们就稍微偷点懒

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所以呢今天的节目啊

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大家降低预期啊

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好咱们就首先看一下经济数据

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今天的经济数据呢主要是4月份的PC呃

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4月份的PCE的核心部分价格

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月环比上涨0.2%

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低于预期的0.3

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但是呢年化升到了3.3%啊

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这个是和预期相符

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那么前值是3.2

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这个值呢是2023年11月以来的最高水平

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还有就是总体的PC价格月环比上涨0.4

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低于预期的0.5%

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年率上涨到了3.8%

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符合预期的3.8

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前值是3.5%

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好这个就是今天的经济数据

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接下来呢咱们就直接过个股

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咱们按照列表上挨个往下说啊

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首先说一下李来呃

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李莱呢在这一轮回撤在这个地方啊

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差不多在900块钱附近寻求到支撑

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并且向上突破下行趋势线压制之后

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就开始一路向上走

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今天呢是在开盘直接突破了最后的一个压力

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1090

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今天的开盘开在了1096啊

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这是一个直接的突破呃

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所以呢今天的价格收盘价

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也是收了一个历史收盘价的新高啊

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就是重新回到上涨的轨道上

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那么目前看起来呢

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李来还是咱们之前讲过的那个问题啊

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他没有去到特别低

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给大家特别低的低买的机会啊

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最多也就是给到这里了嘛

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八百七十一九百二十八这一线

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这已经是这个极限了

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所以它的增速由于还没有大幅的下调啊

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所以现在市场热情也比较高啊

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大家仍旧愿意接受相对较高的前瞻估值水平

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所以目前的26年10861448

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然后中卫126727年12511668

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中卫1460

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那么持有的朋友呢

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现在肯定是继续就持有了对吧

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你要是买了这个地方之前我们已经讲过

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你要买已经买了

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已经下手了

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你要没买呢

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现在你又是不知道怎么办

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所以呢在回撤的过程中

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对于一些好的股票唉大家自行把握

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有的时候启动起来

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你再去追呢

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你就会觉得呃那个处境比较尴尬

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呃它的风险呢我们还是再提示一次啊

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仍旧是之前谈过的增速下调风险

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增速下调之后呢

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就有可能会导致它的前端PEE水平会下滑啊

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这是目前最大的一个就是在PEE波动的

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估值风险上存在的问题

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其他的业绩上整体表现还是比较强劲的好

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然后是微软

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微软今天呢是明显的一个放量啊

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今天是难得的放量呃

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因为微软呢很快就要开这个开发者大会呃

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要推出一些全新的这个AI的模型啊

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虽然之前也有啊

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现在应该是强化增强版本

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那么今天呢是一个很明显的一个放量

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几乎也是有只有少量上影线的一根大阳线对吧

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一般出现这种大阳线呢

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很多持有微软没有信心的朋友啊

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现在又有信心了啊

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这个世界就是这么快啊

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就是这么奇妙对吧

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其实有没有信心和你之前这种行情

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你要有就有啊

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如果你没有

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那你可能一直也没有

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如果你是因为一根阳线改变你的这个信心

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一根大阴线

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然后呢就变得没有信心

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那这个说明呢

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可能你对这支股票呢还是不够信任啊

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或者说对它的基本面的状况还是不够了解啊

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所以还是那句话

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微软没有什么问题啊

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仍旧是我的第一大持仓

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那么目标第一个阶段的目标往上呢

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慢慢的爬到接近498~5161线

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大概有15%左右的一个空间

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时间不可确定啊

220
00:08:53,908 --> 00:08:57,320
但是呢后面起来是没有什么太大问题的

221
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,440
好这个是微软啊

222
00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,460
微软这个地方我更新了一个压力啊

223
00:09:01,460 --> 00:09:03,789
440461的小压力

224
00:09:03,789 --> 00:09:06,870
然后469~490是中等往上

225
00:09:06,870 --> 00:09:07,669
这个没有动过

226
00:09:07,669 --> 00:09:08,029
好吧

227
00:09:08,029 --> 00:09:10,570
这个440461稍微的动了一点点

228
00:09:10,570 --> 00:09:13,210
前天估值再给大家看一眼呃

229
00:09:13,210 --> 00:09:15,230
基于目前26年6月

230
00:09:15,230 --> 00:09:17,070
马上这个财年要过完了

231
00:09:17,070 --> 00:09:18,110
然后再出财报

232
00:09:18,110 --> 00:09:19,159
就是四季度财报

233
00:09:19,159 --> 00:09:19,960
说完之后呢

234
00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,799
我们就可以前瞻到28年的6月份啊

235
00:09:22,799 --> 00:09:25,129
那么就可以看到更远期的现在

236
00:09:25,129 --> 00:09:26,649
基于这个估值前水平呢

237
00:09:26,649 --> 00:09:28,889
价格明显不算特别高啊

238
00:09:28,889 --> 00:09:30,889
当然当然要肯定的是

239
00:09:30,889 --> 00:09:33,009
增速也不是那么快

240
00:09:33,009 --> 00:09:35,029
所以基于它的这个历史波动

241
00:09:35,029 --> 00:09:38,429
25.3倍到31.5倍打点折扣

242
00:09:38,429 --> 00:09:39,309
那可以对吧

243
00:09:39,309 --> 00:09:41,710
但是呢你折扣没有办法打态度

244
00:09:41,710 --> 00:09:44,678
毕竟这个价格在这摆着好

245
00:09:44,678 --> 00:09:45,399
这是微软

246
00:09:45,399 --> 00:09:47,639
接下来呢其他几个没有放量的

247
00:09:47,639 --> 00:09:49,479
我们简单过一下啊

248
00:09:50,289 --> 00:09:51,909
meta这边是缩量

249
00:09:51,909 --> 00:09:53,070
我们今天就不讲好吧

250
00:09:53,070 --> 00:09:55,750
我们之前昨天额前几天刚刚讲过meta啊

251
00:09:55,750 --> 00:09:56,870
这个地方就不再说了啊

252
00:09:56,870 --> 00:09:58,269
缩量这个东西不用跨

253
00:09:58,269 --> 00:09:59,590
属于横盘走势

254
00:09:59,590 --> 00:10:00,389
不用管它

255
00:10:00,389 --> 00:10:02,269
昨天刚刚放量

256
00:10:03,220 --> 00:10:05,500
亚马逊前高走势依旧没变

257
00:10:05,500 --> 00:10:07,139
今天是小放量上行

258
00:10:07,139 --> 00:10:08,960
而依旧是比较强势的走势

259
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:10,820
依旧是不用管它

260
00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,419
特斯拉昨天刚刚给大家更新过

261
00:10:14,419 --> 00:10:18,159
它的更加细节的上行和下行的关键位置

262
00:10:18,159 --> 00:10:20,320
今天是严重的缩量啊

263
00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,250
今天的投资热情应该叫投机热情啊

264
00:10:23,250 --> 00:10:25,450
波段热情不在特斯拉身上

265
00:10:25,450 --> 00:10:28,370
所以今天这个价格横盘对待啊

266
00:10:28,370 --> 00:10:30,460
没有任何的趋势发生呃

267
00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:32,240
还是上看465突破

268
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:33,600
或者下看419

269
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,500
跌破短线窗口关闭

270
00:10:35,500 --> 00:10:38,620
这就是你要去考虑你盈亏比做不做投机

271
00:10:38,620 --> 00:10:40,700
做不做波段的地方

272
00:10:42,759 --> 00:10:45,500
好AMD主要是更新一下它的技术面

273
00:10:45,500 --> 00:10:48,899
上行442~453有一个中等支撑

274
00:10:48,899 --> 00:10:49,860
这是最近的啊

275
00:10:49,860 --> 00:10:52,919
剩下的位置呢往453往上呢大概五六十块钱

276
00:10:52,919 --> 00:10:55,610
目前没有任何的这个支撑力度

277
00:10:55,610 --> 00:10:58,730
然后下方是400~420是小啊

278
00:10:58,730 --> 00:11:02,019
然后照下方的是334~366

279
00:11:02,019 --> 00:11:04,360
所以呢这是目前mg的情况

280
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,450
仍旧处于我们很多的股票看到新高之后有新高

281
00:11:08,450 --> 00:11:12,190
然后呢低买低出来一点就买上去

282
00:11:12,190 --> 00:11:14,490
其中啊这个原理我跟大家讲过

283
00:11:14,490 --> 00:11:18,750
这跟我们之前在前几年多次看到的融涨行情

284
00:11:18,750 --> 00:11:20,059
是一样的

285
00:11:20,059 --> 00:11:21,320
也就是在新高之后

286
00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:26,068
当大量的看涨期权和看多的股票不撒手

287
00:11:26,068 --> 00:11:27,589
然后不断的买入

288
00:11:27,589 --> 00:11:30,259
同时已经在车上的不下车

289
00:11:30,259 --> 00:11:33,139
它的卖盘和买盘

290
00:11:33,139 --> 00:11:38,210
在短时间内它的供需依旧是买盘占优

291
00:11:38,210 --> 00:11:41,740
包括大量的看涨期权的进入

292
00:11:41,740 --> 00:11:44,100
导致伽马挤压往上

293
00:11:44,100 --> 00:11:45,519
做市商被动

294
00:11:45,519 --> 00:11:48,000
因为卖给你了看涨期权之后

295
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,980
他们需要对冲风险

296
00:11:49,980 --> 00:11:52,779
要保持呃这个delta中性

297
00:11:52,779 --> 00:11:55,240
所以要被迫买入股票

298
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,789
那么这种情况其实它是什么东西呢

299
00:11:58,789 --> 00:11:59,990
他有的时候

300
00:11:59,990 --> 00:12:03,629
这个就像我们说在踩踏的这个行情

301
00:12:03,629 --> 00:12:05,889
发生时候的反向啊

302
00:12:05,889 --> 00:12:09,349
就是说现在他是你说他是正股噶空也好

303
00:12:09,349 --> 00:12:12,230
你说他是伽马挤压期权层面的也好

304
00:12:12,230 --> 00:12:15,068
那么这个叫向上的挤压行情

305
00:12:15,068 --> 00:12:17,428
当它发生向下的挤压行情啊

306
00:12:17,428 --> 00:12:18,589
所有的股票都一样啊

307
00:12:18,589 --> 00:12:19,969
不是针对AMD啊

308
00:12:19,969 --> 00:12:20,869
所有股票都这种

309
00:12:20,869 --> 00:12:23,519
当它出现单边上涨行情的时候

310
00:12:23,519 --> 00:12:26,309
就是由短线的这些资金在往上推

311
00:12:26,309 --> 00:12:28,990
同样当如果资金出现短续的呃

312
00:12:28,990 --> 00:12:30,929
短期的供需不平衡的时候

313
00:12:30,929 --> 00:12:33,029
那么它的资金反向出来

314
00:12:33,029 --> 00:12:35,570
那么做市商就会成为其中一股

315
00:12:35,570 --> 00:12:36,909
强大的这个推动力啊

316
00:12:36,909 --> 00:12:39,860
因为同样你在下方你要去做put

317
00:12:39,860 --> 00:12:41,340
他需要卖给你put啊

318
00:12:41,340 --> 00:12:42,100
是一个道理啊

319
00:12:42,100 --> 00:12:46,230
因为他手上要有大量的正骨好呃

320
00:12:46,230 --> 00:12:50,960
然后英伟达英伟达呢情况回撤211

321
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,019
下方之前讲过好多次啊

322
00:12:53,019 --> 00:12:54,259
仓位不足的朋友

323
00:12:54,259 --> 00:12:57,480
你从211下方到175这一线

324
00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:58,960
你自行呢安排啊

325
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,519
因为我仓位已经满了

326
00:13:00,519 --> 00:13:02,720
英伟达呢仓位已经全部满上了

327
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,078
所以呢我目前没有任何的加减仓计划

328
00:13:06,078 --> 00:13:07,519
大家仓位不足的朋友呢

329
00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:08,719
你就自行考虑了啊

330
00:13:08,719 --> 00:13:09,860
这个我们就不多讲

331
00:13:09,860 --> 00:13:11,620
今天呢仍旧是一个缩量

332
00:13:11,620 --> 00:13:14,000
英伟达后面由于体量太大

333
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:14,879
市值太高

334
00:13:14,879 --> 00:13:16,679
它需要的资金量比较多

335
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,460
现在的市场的很多的资金会炒更小一些的盘子

336
00:13:20,460 --> 00:13:21,470
容易一些嘛

337
00:13:21,470 --> 00:13:25,850
所以英伟达不要有太高的短线的预期好吧

338
00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:28,789
大家会说英伟达什么时候能一天涨个十个点

339
00:13:28,789 --> 00:13:29,950
比较难一点啊

340
00:13:29,950 --> 00:13:31,669
因为事实在这里摆着

341
00:13:31,669 --> 00:13:34,179
所以期待一个慢牛就可以啊

342
00:13:34,179 --> 00:13:36,860
后面的慢牛他如果要加速

343
00:13:36,860 --> 00:13:40,460
也是等那一些现在有一些炒的

344
00:13:40,460 --> 00:13:42,059
比如投机氛围比较重的

345
00:13:42,059 --> 00:13:43,899
有一些包括成长股啊

346
00:13:43,899 --> 00:13:46,379
包括有一些市值较小的股票对吧

347
00:13:46,379 --> 00:13:47,080
吃够了

348
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:48,970
当那些资金出来的时候

349
00:13:48,970 --> 00:13:52,389
回到低洼的价值股上的时候

350
00:13:52,389 --> 00:13:55,049
它的涨幅才会相对好一点

351
00:13:55,049 --> 00:13:57,450
很多人会担心说那会投半导体

352
00:13:57,450 --> 00:13:58,389
如果回撤

353
00:13:58,389 --> 00:14:00,789
那英伟达会不会跟着大跌

354
00:14:00,789 --> 00:14:02,480
大家思考一个问题

355
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,200
半导体在大涨的时候

356
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:05,460
英伟达也没有大涨

357
00:14:05,460 --> 00:14:06,820
那么大跌的时候

358
00:14:06,820 --> 00:14:09,889
也不会是因为英伟达下跌导致的

359
00:14:09,889 --> 00:14:11,870
费城半导体的下跌逻辑

360
00:14:11,870 --> 00:14:12,909
就这么个逻辑啊

361
00:14:12,909 --> 00:14:15,919
所以呢我反倒是认为当一呃

362
00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:18,500
如果费城半导体出现了比较大的回撤的时候

363
00:14:18,500 --> 00:14:21,470
英伟达反倒是其中的比较好的

364
00:14:21,470 --> 00:14:23,190
半导体的一个避风港

365
00:14:23,190 --> 00:14:24,309
因为业绩在这里摆着

366
00:14:24,309 --> 00:14:26,789
而业绩并没有走差啊

367
00:14:27,190 --> 00:14:29,679
好然后谷歌的情况

368
00:14:29,679 --> 00:14:31,440
前几天我们刚更新过啊

369
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,820
这个股票的之前的减仓计划是全部都取消的

370
00:14:34,820 --> 00:14:35,960
以持有为主啊

371
00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,299
主要是他呢这个space x上市之后

372
00:14:39,299 --> 00:14:42,340
会有一个可能有一个投机炒作的问题

373
00:14:42,340 --> 00:14:44,818
他持有比较多的这个股权

374
00:14:44,818 --> 00:14:47,538
所以也有可能跟着他一块动一动啊

375
00:14:47,538 --> 00:14:51,500
所以暂时我就呃不去做他任何的减仓计划

376
00:14:51,500 --> 00:14:52,419
先观看呃

377
00:14:52,419 --> 00:14:57,230
这个观察一下苹果同样走的也是一个走势啊

378
00:14:57,230 --> 00:14:58,809
缓慢的缓慢的向上推

379
00:14:58,809 --> 00:14:59,980
缓慢向上推

380
00:14:59,980 --> 00:15:02,340
推上去以后产生这种挤压啊

381
00:15:02,340 --> 00:15:05,690
主要是伽马挤压导致的好

382
00:15:05,690 --> 00:15:07,370
还有一个是snow

383
00:15:07,370 --> 00:15:11,039
哎这个就是真的我们叫老八股了对吧

384
00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:12,740
可能这只有老朋友知道

385
00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:15,440
为什么这只股票属于老八股啊

386
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,120
这股票我在2020年的时候

387
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:20,399
IPO的时候啊

388
00:15:20,399 --> 00:15:21,919
就买过

389
00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:24,279
然后呢这个股票也一直没有动过啊

390
00:15:24,279 --> 00:15:25,200
那个是风险投资啊

391
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,299
不在我现在任何的长线的

392
00:15:27,299 --> 00:15:29,019
这个长期投资的规划里面

393
00:15:29,019 --> 00:15:30,370
我也给大家讲过嘛

394
00:15:30,370 --> 00:15:33,889
那是用一笔完全不需要用的啊

395
00:15:33,889 --> 00:15:36,639
然后呢这个可以接受归零

396
00:15:36,639 --> 00:15:38,600
可以接受亏损完毕

397
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,960
然后的几年都不动的一笔钱啊

398
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,639
但资金量比较小的一笔钱啊

399
00:15:42,639 --> 00:15:44,490
放在里边去买的它啊

400
00:15:44,490 --> 00:15:46,970
这个情况是一个叫做风险投资啊

401
00:15:46,970 --> 00:15:50,289
跟着我平常的那个正股持仓不是一个概念好吧

402
00:15:50,289 --> 00:15:52,299
所以呢这个股票平常我也没怎么讲

403
00:15:52,299 --> 00:15:55,139
因为讲呢可说的东西不多

404
00:15:55,139 --> 00:15:56,059
为什么不多

405
00:15:56,059 --> 00:15:58,100
因为它的前瞻估值水平来讲

406
00:15:58,100 --> 00:16:00,539
市价是严重高估的啊

407
00:16:00,539 --> 00:16:02,440
一直以来都是严重高估的

408
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,080
这只股票到现在为止

409
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:05,500
其实你满打满算

410
00:16:05,500 --> 00:16:06,480
按60倍去算呢

411
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:07,679
它也不到200块钱

412
00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:08,759
应该是这样啊

413
00:16:08,759 --> 00:16:10,769
就是从前瞻估值角度来讲

414
00:16:10,769 --> 00:16:12,250
那么财报发完之后呢

415
00:16:12,250 --> 00:16:14,870
整体的AI推动的情况还比较不错

416
00:16:14,870 --> 00:16:17,620
所以一口气暴涨了36%呃

417
00:16:17,620 --> 00:16:20,940
这个地方我的看法仍旧是我还是不动啊

418
00:16:20,940 --> 00:16:21,669
仍旧不动

419
00:16:21,669 --> 00:16:24,769
但是呢给大家还是提示一下这支股票

420
00:16:24,769 --> 00:16:27,668
它是也是一个比较走技术面的呃

421
00:16:27,668 --> 00:16:29,828
技术面吃技术面的一个公一个一个股票啊

422
00:16:29,828 --> 00:16:34,159
所以这家公司大家如果你要去做它

423
00:16:34,159 --> 00:16:37,399
你要知道它的波动性非常非常的高

424
00:16:37,399 --> 00:16:38,078
好吧

425
00:16:38,078 --> 00:16:40,999
它目前的情况是217~235

426
00:16:40,999 --> 00:16:42,899
这个地方是它的强支撑

427
00:16:42,899 --> 00:16:46,179
也就是今天收盘价上去突破的地方

428
00:16:46,179 --> 00:16:49,679
向上的情况还会比较的压力不大

429
00:16:49,679 --> 00:16:51,059
只有三个中等压力

430
00:16:51,059 --> 00:16:52,600
大家可以看一下

431
00:16:52,879 --> 00:16:56,980
238252262279和292~309

432
00:16:56,980 --> 00:16:58,279
没有太强的压力

433
00:16:58,279 --> 00:17:01,500
所以他现在下方的情况比较稳固

434
00:17:01,500 --> 00:17:03,799
只要维持在217的上方

435
00:17:03,799 --> 00:17:07,160
那么整个的结构就是维持在上半区的啊

436
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,099
无非就是什么时候再动一动对吧

437
00:17:09,099 --> 00:17:12,519
神经刀嘛动不动就要不就一个啪暴跌下来哈

438
00:17:12,519 --> 00:17:13,539
前面大家看一下

439
00:17:13,539 --> 00:17:14,200
这不是吗

440
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:15,640
这都有啊是吧

441
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:16,680
这连续暴跌

442
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,200
你都不知道干嘛发生了什么连续暴跌对吧

443
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,028
然后后面同样该跌的时候还跌

444
00:17:22,028 --> 00:17:24,388
所以一天动个什么90个点很正常啊

445
00:17:24,388 --> 00:17:27,400
所以这是一只高风险高波动的股票

446
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,880
这个本人就是我在这里跟大家讲这个啊

447
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,059
因为昨天问的朋友实在太多了

448
00:17:33,059 --> 00:17:35,349
所以今天我给大家带一下呃

449
00:17:35,349 --> 00:17:38,509
我的个人的给大家的这个建议呢

450
00:17:38,509 --> 00:17:41,069
是你尽量的在这支股票上

451
00:17:41,069 --> 00:17:44,029
大家不要把它想的太美好啊

452
00:17:44,029 --> 00:17:45,859
太太不太不太好做

453
00:17:45,859 --> 00:17:47,819
说实话这支股票不太好做

454
00:17:47,819 --> 00:17:49,990
虽然波段比较好做

455
00:17:49,990 --> 00:17:52,710
但是你要有一定的这个技术分析的能力

456
00:17:52,710 --> 00:17:56,130
不然的话你很容易在其中被甩的头晕眼花好吧

457
00:17:56,130 --> 00:17:57,900
所以这支股票比较难做

458
00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:00,019
但是最近呢因为它今天突破之后

459
00:18:00,019 --> 00:18:01,259
给大家一个关键位置

460
00:18:01,259 --> 00:18:02,019
大家参考

461
00:18:02,019 --> 00:18:04,220
217不跌破往上呢

462
00:18:04,220 --> 00:18:07,900
那就可想象空间摆动空间就非常非常的大啊

463
00:18:07,900 --> 00:18:09,220
大概有几十个点的空间

464
00:18:09,220 --> 00:18:11,740
上下空间好

465
00:18:11,740 --> 00:18:12,680
还有一个股票啊

466
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,140
跟大家也跟一下SRG啊

467
00:18:15,140 --> 00:18:18,369
嘿嘿这股票说起来挺有意思的

468
00:18:18,369 --> 00:18:20,670
这股票呢你看我不讲对吧

469
00:18:20,670 --> 00:18:22,029
大家说诶怎么不讲

470
00:18:22,029 --> 00:18:23,549
我不想让他太热闹了

471
00:18:23,549 --> 00:18:25,009
万一太一太热闹了

472
00:18:25,009 --> 00:18:26,329
我一讲它就飞了

473
00:18:26,329 --> 00:18:27,789
一讲它就飞了

474
00:18:27,789 --> 00:18:29,470
那我最近就没怎么讲嘛

475
00:18:29,470 --> 00:18:29,789
对吧

476
00:18:29,789 --> 00:18:32,549
我没怎么讲这个它就不动

477
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:34,900
反弹上去以后它就又下来了

478
00:18:34,900 --> 00:18:36,839
上一次呢是因为跌破之后

479
00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:38,539
我跟大家已经讲过了一次

480
00:18:38,539 --> 00:18:39,460
讲过了一次

481
00:18:39,460 --> 00:18:42,299
所以我这一次呢其实没有任何东西没有变化

482
00:18:42,299 --> 00:18:43,470
它跌下来嘛

483
00:18:43,470 --> 00:18:44,970
后来不是反弹上去吗

484
00:18:44,970 --> 00:18:46,390
反弹上去我不说

485
00:18:46,390 --> 00:18:47,450
以反弹对待

486
00:18:47,450 --> 00:18:48,269
反弹对待

487
00:18:48,269 --> 00:18:50,230
在没有往上突破之前

488
00:18:50,230 --> 00:18:52,589
反弹承压下跌

489
00:18:52,589 --> 00:18:54,829
所以我在这过程中是不会买的啊

490
00:18:54,829 --> 00:18:56,069
包括现在我也没买

491
00:18:56,069 --> 00:18:58,190
大家今天可能有不少朋友可能想去说

492
00:18:58,190 --> 00:18:59,579
抄不抄底呃

493
00:18:59,579 --> 00:19:01,359
我个人是没有这么激进的啊

494
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:02,099
大家看一下

495
00:19:02,099 --> 00:19:06,710
我计划加仓的位置是从321~405

496
00:19:06,710 --> 00:19:08,699
这中间有80块钱

497
00:19:08,699 --> 00:19:11,038
这是我准备加7%的仓位

498
00:19:11,038 --> 00:19:14,259
我并不是说他到了405马上就加啊

499
00:19:14,259 --> 00:19:15,058
不是这样的哈

500
00:19:15,058 --> 00:19:17,210
所以这个因为这为什么在这个区间

501
00:19:17,210 --> 00:19:17,369
是

502
00:19:17,369 --> 00:19:19,880
因为这个区间是它的强支撑的

503
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:21,480
一个非常宽的范围

504
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,319
我不并不清楚它是405就止跌

505
00:19:24,319 --> 00:19:26,059
还是380才止跌

506
00:19:26,059 --> 00:19:27,519
还是370

507
00:19:27,519 --> 00:19:29,839
365或者310块钱才止跌

508
00:19:29,839 --> 00:19:30,779
我不清楚

509
00:19:30,779 --> 00:19:33,700
所以这个仓位它是有容错空间

510
00:19:33,700 --> 00:19:35,339
容错率算在里边的

511
00:19:35,339 --> 00:19:38,759
它不是一个到了405就满上对吧

512
00:19:38,759 --> 00:19:39,859
没有这个说法啊

513
00:19:39,859 --> 00:19:41,140
我个人也没有这个说法

514
00:19:41,140 --> 00:19:42,140
也没有这个想法

515
00:19:42,140 --> 00:19:45,390
所以大家你千万别激进好吧

516
00:19:45,390 --> 00:19:46,430
上次跟大家讲的

517
00:19:46,430 --> 00:19:49,069
大家别抢别抢别抢又抢对吧

518
00:19:49,069 --> 00:19:52,720
抢上去以后你抢成现在你看你抢到了450

519
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,059
然后现在对吧

520
00:19:54,059 --> 00:19:55,119
价格比较高对吧

521
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:55,740
不要抢啊

522
00:19:55,740 --> 00:19:56,900
到了405不要抢

523
00:19:56,900 --> 00:19:59,000
慢慢的等些止跌形态

524
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,359
等一些底部的形态出来

525
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:05,200
它毕竟是从上方这么大的一个头部下来

526
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,440
大家可以看一下啊

527
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,920
你看他这个走势

528
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,119
这是多少个月的这个头部

529
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:10,839
大家可以看一下

530
00:20:10,839 --> 00:20:13,250
从2024年啊

531
00:20:13,250 --> 00:20:16,130
到现在两年时间的一个头部跌穿

532
00:20:16,130 --> 00:20:18,390
你觉得他能那么快就回去吗

533
00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:19,470
没那么容易的

534
00:20:19,470 --> 00:20:20,970
所以慢慢等

535
00:20:20,970 --> 00:20:22,009
不要着急啊

536
00:20:22,009 --> 00:20:23,190
着急呢

537
00:20:23,190 --> 00:20:24,650
我原来讲过一句话

538
00:20:24,650 --> 00:20:26,630
我说买了呢在里面它不涨

539
00:20:26,630 --> 00:20:29,380
你是等你也你也是等对吧

540
00:20:29,380 --> 00:20:30,339
你现在呢

541
00:20:30,339 --> 00:20:33,400
你现在本来就在下跌趋势还没有结束的时候

542
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,200
你等它趋势出现

543
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:36,039
它也是等

544
00:20:36,039 --> 00:20:40,038
但是两个的等式等的感受程度是不一样的对吧

545
00:20:40,038 --> 00:20:40,638
你买了之后

546
00:20:40,638 --> 00:20:41,538
哪怕他在横盘

547
00:20:41,538 --> 00:20:43,199
你可能感受度还好一点

548
00:20:43,199 --> 00:20:44,239
但是买完之后

549
00:20:44,239 --> 00:20:46,159
如果它一直在跌或者阴跌

550
00:20:46,159 --> 00:20:47,798
你感受度就差一点

551
00:20:47,798 --> 00:20:49,449
所以这就是区别啊

552
00:20:49,449 --> 00:20:51,119
其实不着急啊

553
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,200
好其他的东西呢

554
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:54,180
还有一个IGV

555
00:20:54,180 --> 00:20:55,880
今天给大家也说一下啊

556
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:56,400
我们看一下

557
00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:01,739
跟踪一下IGV今天放量软件啊也继续放量

558
00:21:01,739 --> 00:21:04,038
如期往上推啊

559
00:21:04,038 --> 00:21:05,710
如期往上推

560
00:21:05,710 --> 00:21:08,670
这个只要在放量过程中往上走啊

561
00:21:08,670 --> 00:21:12,799
这个就代表着有一些噶空或者主动的资金在走

562
00:21:12,799 --> 00:21:13,960
但是我没办法确认啊

563
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,539
因为这其实成交量并不大

564
00:21:15,539 --> 00:21:17,559
如果成交量爆的非常的大

565
00:21:17,559 --> 00:21:20,659
那基本上就可以确定是嘎空出现

566
00:21:20,659 --> 00:21:23,499
但现在呢只是小放量往上推

567
00:21:23,499 --> 00:21:25,058
但是趋势没变吧对吧

568
00:21:25,058 --> 00:21:27,578
我们讲过这个突破之后的趋势向上

569
00:21:27,578 --> 00:21:30,439
我们谈到IGV的嘎空的时候

570
00:21:30,439 --> 00:21:31,419
明确的说到啊

571
00:21:31,419 --> 00:21:33,710
IGV的嘎空指的是IGV

572
00:21:33,710 --> 00:21:35,890
不是代表这个软件板块里

573
00:21:35,890 --> 00:21:37,470
所有的个股都会被噶空

574
00:21:37,470 --> 00:21:40,049
因为它每个被做空的状况不一样

575
00:21:40,049 --> 00:21:41,329
业绩也不一样

576
00:21:41,329 --> 00:21:45,250
但它呢能够带动软件板块的个股走得更好一些

577
00:21:45,250 --> 00:21:46,710
这是他的一个逻辑

578
00:21:46,710 --> 00:21:48,349
那么今天IGV放量

579
00:21:48,349 --> 00:21:51,029
我们看到所有的软件里面的个股表现

580
00:21:51,029 --> 00:21:52,950
大多都表现不错

581
00:21:52,950 --> 00:21:53,490
对不对

582
00:21:53,490 --> 00:21:56,009
所以这个东西你就需要一点耐心

583
00:21:56,009 --> 00:21:57,849
不是说嘎工啊

584
00:21:57,849 --> 00:21:58,589
一天没出现

585
00:21:58,589 --> 00:22:01,069
大家就问今天怎么没嘎怎么没嘎呢

586
00:22:01,069 --> 00:22:01,569
对吧

587
00:22:01,569 --> 00:22:02,910
你问我我问谁呢对吧

588
00:22:02,910 --> 00:22:04,349
我也不知道他哪天嘎

589
00:22:04,349 --> 00:22:06,769
那不能说你买了5分钟没涨

590
00:22:06,769 --> 00:22:08,009
就说为什么不涨吧

591
00:22:08,009 --> 00:22:09,460
那这个不合理啊

592
00:22:09,460 --> 00:22:10,740
好看的东西呢

593
00:22:10,740 --> 00:22:12,680
有的时候股票看的是趋势啊

594
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,480
看的是趋势

595
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:14,640
抓住趋势

596
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,819
抓住它的一些呃大的一些方向呃

597
00:22:18,819 --> 00:22:21,000
细节把握上不可能那么精准

598
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,380
我们做不到百分之百

599
00:22:22,380 --> 00:22:24,778
我们只能看个趋势好

600
00:22:24,778 --> 00:22:26,818
这个是IGV的大致情况

601
00:22:26,818 --> 00:22:28,378
那么现在情况不错啊

602
00:22:28,378 --> 00:22:31,119
继续向着接近100附近进发

603
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,740
那么越是接近100块

604
00:22:32,740 --> 00:22:34,299
大家越要注意

605
00:22:34,299 --> 00:22:36,819
因为那个地方的压力比较的大啊

606
00:22:36,819 --> 00:22:39,569
当然换句话讲到了100附近

607
00:22:39,569 --> 00:22:40,490
比如说到了101

608
00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:43,000
107还没有停下来的迹象

609
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:44,880
还在高位放量上涨

610
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,490
那后面就代表着可能有好戏要看了啊

611
00:22:48,490 --> 00:22:49,609
如果嘎到200

612
00:22:49,609 --> 00:22:52,150
你107往上还没停

613
00:22:52,150 --> 00:22:55,230
那这个可能后面就有意思了啊

614
00:22:55,230 --> 00:22:59,539
那软件可能后面就要成为大家的大腿了哈

615
00:22:59,539 --> 00:23:00,940
当然这个情况还早啊

616
00:23:00,940 --> 00:23:03,539
我们只是这么这个往前推测一下啊

617
00:23:03,539 --> 00:23:05,049
不一定出现的了嘛

618
00:23:05,049 --> 00:23:05,950
好呃

619
00:23:05,950 --> 00:23:07,930
这个呢就是今天带给大家

620
00:23:07,930 --> 00:23:11,000
关于这个市场的一些内容的更新

621
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,519
今天东西比较简单啊

622
00:23:12,519 --> 00:23:14,079
就是随便拿出来和大家讲一讲

623
00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:15,640
因为确实可说的东西不多

624
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,869
好吧呃加上周末呢也人也比较的疲惫

625
00:23:18,869 --> 00:23:22,359
所以比较放松的状态和大家随便聊一聊好

626
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,200
如果你觉得我的节目呢对你有所帮助

627
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,059
还是希望大家能够多多的帮忙点赞啊

628
00:23:28,059 --> 00:23:28,720
感谢大家

629
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,650
昨天点赞率非常不错

630
00:23:30,650 --> 00:23:32,490
那我们今天节目到这儿

631
00:23:32,490 --> 00:23:36,720
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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