【Financial Education】这只股票造就的百万富翁将超越历史上的任何股票

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你喜欢赚钱吗

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你喜欢煎饼和松饼吗

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这就是我们在这里做的事

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女士们先生们

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看看公开持仓量

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今天简直火爆异常

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又是一个推动四点的强劲交易日

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公开持仓量突破两百万

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祝贺大家，这实在是非常非常大的

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祝贺所有amd股东

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看看这个

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当我截取这个屏幕时

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当时接近五百点

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今天最终突破了五百点

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这简直太震撼了

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对于amd和micron同样如此

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如果各位是micron股东在关注

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祝贺你们

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这一波行情堪称传奇

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这只股票今天涨到九百点

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八百四十点

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过去一年上涨四%

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这堪称前所未有

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与此同时还有英伟达

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英伟达表现不错

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过去一年涨59%

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但与其他走势相比

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英伟达股东可能有点闲

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像啊

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我们可是宇宙中心

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我们创造了这些惊人数据

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比如59%

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他们还在说

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当看到amd飙升八百%

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确实如此

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蛋糕工厂近期表现亮眼

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股价上涨7%以上

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过去五天内

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蛋糕正在烘焙五个核心领域

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今天视频要讨论的内容

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第一点

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我们将讨论amd

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并在视频开头讲micron

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这一趋势何时反转

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还能涨多高

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这两只股还能走多远

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具体来说

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好的

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这显然是当前最大话题

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我认为现在股市最重要

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这两只股票是宇宙的中心

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没错，第二位

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关于英伟达还有希望吗

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关于股价走势对吧

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我们知道数据非常惊人

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它们的表现比以往任何时候都更好

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我们知道指引数据非常出色

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我们知道他们几乎每个季度都能超预期

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那么需要什么才能让股价向正确方向移动

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在视频里

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股东们感觉可以了

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现在我们开始玩得开心了对吧

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我们来讨论这个

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如果第三位有希望的话，他们有一些重大好消息

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如果你持有SOFI股票

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SOFI股票

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这只股票确实有好消息

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第四个交易日

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我有个好消息

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如果你关注蛋糕股票

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芝士蛋糕工厂

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第五只股票

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接下来的AMD和美光级别的行情

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这些股票何时进场

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今天我会在视频里分享这个

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我只求大家一件事

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请在视频下方点个赞

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这是我唯一需要的

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如果你想的话

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如果你想在评论区分享

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你上涨了多少

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无论是AMD还是美光股票

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如果你持有其中任何一只股票

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随时可以

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在评论区告诉我

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我很想看看大家的收益数据

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肯定有很多惊人数字

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甚至对于上涨一千或几千美元的人

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在评论区告诉我们

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我很想看看大家的涨幅

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肯定是个难以置信的数字

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好的

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今天请关注下方评论区

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如果你想加入私享股票群

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六月将关闭新成员加入

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如果你想加入我的私享股票群

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获取所有课程大纲

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访问我的私密Discord

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观看独家每周视频

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见证行情动向

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我正在打造所有优质的东西

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点击下方的图钉评论

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申请加入我的私享股票群

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尽快行动，六月我将关闭新成员加入

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所以请务必记住

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好吧已经知道了

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女士们先生们

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我们开始行动吧

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难以置信

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我们仅在公开账户的AMD股票上已实现一百万美元利润

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这还不包括Patreon投资组合

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也不包括所有私有投资组合

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这些组合中满载AMD股票

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单一支股票在一个组合中就赚超百万美元

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这就是我们玩这个游戏的意义

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这就是当你处于这种飙升期时

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确实如此

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这感觉棒极了对吧

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这感觉太棒了

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因为你付出了努力

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你啊

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你知道你投入了辛苦赚来的钱到某只股票里

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然后它就开启了一段绝妙的飙升

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多年来我有幸参与过许多这样的股票

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你知道吗

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在我开始做YouTube之前

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我们有一家叫Trinity Industries的公司

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这是我的首个重大飙升股

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那家公司简直疯狂上涨

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那还是在两千年初

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天啊

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那是2010年左右

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2011年

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2012年

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他们实际生产汽车，北达科他州的页岩油开采暂停

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需要想办法运输石油

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这家公司在这个市场中占据绝佳位置

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这是我首个经历大幅飙升的股票

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Monster Energy也是其中之一

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还有另一只股票经历疯狂飙升

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当时有一家叫Cabelas的公司

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这些都在我做YouTube之前

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自从我在YouTube后

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到现在已经十年了

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此时我已经拥有多只惊人飙升股

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首先是特斯拉

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对我来说涨幅达两千%

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Palantir同样涨幅两千%

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Meta更是大幅上涨

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涨幅约五成左右

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嗯，然后我们做了

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我谈到帕莱里亚

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是啊

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我觉得我提过帕莱里亚

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现在我们有了AMD

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哦

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精灵屋上的小精灵是个大热门

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你知道它涨幅高达六七百%

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自从我2019年开始投资以来

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现在AMD正在创造惊人涨幅

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对了，这很有趣

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嗯，关于

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你知道股市的体验

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没错，你得经历痛苦

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比如

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有时候你会判断错误

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有时候你投资股票

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可能会亏钱

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没错，这很不好玩

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但当你选对了

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赶上这样的传奇行情

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天啊

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乐趣无穷，它对你

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收益率的提升简直不可思议

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因为某只股票可能亏20%

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对吧

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比如你买了Adobe

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结果没起色

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然后

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你开始动摇信心

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亏了20%要不要止损啊

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但接着在另一只股赚200%

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或500%

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那20%就显得微不足道

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根本不算什么

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最关键的是要押对大投资

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我幸运地长期押对了大投资

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现在

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关于AMD股票有个关键点

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如果你想知道这波行情还能走多远

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今天我在X动态发了这个

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如果你没关注我的X账号

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可能该关注了

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链接在下方描述区

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如果你用X平台的话

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我说AMD股票今年或明年可能涨到一千美元

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我之前一直在说这个

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现在这个时间点

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AMD股票的关键在于

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数据增长会加速到惊人程度

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分析师的价格目标

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我已经谈论这个问题快一年了

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在这个时间点

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分析师追逐这只股票

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事情太多太复杂了

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这简直太

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简直像混乱一样

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几乎陷入混乱

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因为AMD在未来几个季度股价将飙升

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在未来几年分析师的目标价将持续上涨

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至少未来6到12个月会快速上涨

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你有分析师

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追逐分析师

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这简直太荒谬了对吧

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资金在追逐资金

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交易者涌入这只股票

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因为它有强劲势头

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这纯粹是混乱

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现在我们完全陷入混乱模式

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像AMD和Micron这样的股票

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没错

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彻底的混乱

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所以要明白

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这种上涨可能在今年或明年突破一千

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我有没有押注

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短期内不会看涨

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我没有认购期权

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AMD

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肯定要涨到一千了

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我不想投入我的

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我不想为此担忧

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我不想担心

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今年会涨到一千吗

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或者不会像这样

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我没事

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我耳朵都要被AMD的股票塞满了

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我对现在完全满意

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如果今年或明年不涨到一千

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我也完全接受

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嗯

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在股票上表现不错

242
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:31,279
现状就是这样

243
00:07:31,279 --> 00:07:33,379
如果保持现状也行

244
00:07:33,379 --> 00:07:35,019
如果涨到七百也行

245
00:07:35,019 --> 00:07:36,279
如果涨到九百也行

246
00:07:36,279 --> 00:07:37,740
如果涨到一千一百也行

247
00:07:37,740 --> 00:07:38,699
我完全没问题

248
00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:40,019
无论怎么分析

249
00:07:40,019 --> 00:07:41,120
关于AMD

250
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:42,300
现在就是混乱状态

251
00:07:42,300 --> 00:07:43,019
在这个时间点

252
00:07:43,019 --> 00:07:45,199
没错，现在情况是这样

253
00:07:45,199 --> 00:07:46,819
真相是

254
00:07:47,180 --> 00:07:50,120
没人知道AMD的营收即将疯狂到什么程度

255
00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,250
我们只知道它会变得疯狂

256
00:07:52,250 --> 00:07:54,189
分析师们的预测数字太过保守

257
00:07:54,189 --> 00:07:54,649
下一季度

258
00:07:54,649 --> 00:07:57,418
他们未能在下一季度实现三七增长

259
00:07:57,418 --> 00:07:59,199
我甚至不知道这怎么解释

260
00:07:59,199 --> 00:08:00,298
这看起来太荒谬了

261
00:08:00,298 --> 00:08:01,718
比如他们提到三四

262
00:08:01,718 --> 00:08:02,978
三五或更低

263
00:08:02,978 --> 00:08:03,319
打扰一下

264
00:08:03,319 --> 00:08:04,680
这是之前几个季度的数据

265
00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:05,519
到底发生了什么

266
00:08:05,519 --> 00:08:05,860
没错

267
00:08:05,860 --> 00:08:08,519
他们直接从三四%提升到三七%

268
00:08:08,519 --> 00:08:10,279
现在的情况是

269
00:08:10,279 --> 00:08:12,788
问题是这些数字究竟会疯狂到什么程度

270
00:08:12,788 --> 00:08:16,588
以下是关于AMD的预测

271
00:08:16,588 --> 00:08:18,309
这是分析师们提出的

272
00:08:18,309 --> 00:08:18,488
至于

273
00:08:18,488 --> 00:08:20,769
他们预计营收增长并看这个数据

274
00:08:20,769 --> 00:08:21,370
好的

275
00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:24,449
下一季度预计增长四七%

276
00:08:24,449 --> 00:08:25,629
这是个低数值

277
00:08:25,629 --> 00:08:26,790
接下来的季度

278
00:08:26,790 --> 00:08:28,519
这对我来说太震惊了

279
00:08:28,519 --> 00:08:30,600
他们在九月季度有这些数据

280
00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:31,839
仅增长营收

281
00:08:31,839 --> 00:08:33,120
现在是三四%

282
00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:33,980
请记住

283
00:08:33,980 --> 00:08:35,470
注意三十

284
00:08:35,470 --> 00:08:38,970
四%的增长对全球几乎任何公司都是奇迹，对AMD更是如此

285
00:08:38,970 --> 00:08:39,990
而你们所处的阶段

286
00:08:39,990 --> 00:08:41,289
这其实是个差劲的数据

287
00:08:41,289 --> 00:08:42,578
这简直荒唐

288
00:08:42,578 --> 00:08:44,759
他们已经开始大规模量产

289
00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:47,538
此时的50系列GPU

290
00:08:47,538 --> 00:08:52,610
你会明白他们给出的营收数字

291
00:08:52,610 --> 00:08:55,620
接下来会发生的是下一季度

292
00:08:55,620 --> 00:08:58,820
没错，他们的下一季度财报将在两个月后公布

293
00:08:58,820 --> 00:09:00,240
可能稍超两个月后

294
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,220
接下来AMD将打破这个纪录

295
00:09:02,220 --> 00:09:03,029
好的

296
00:09:03,029 --> 00:09:04,149
接下来会发生的是

297
00:09:04,149 --> 00:09:05,509
他们将发布指引

298
00:09:05,509 --> 00:09:08,710
这个指引会远超华尔街当前预期

299
00:09:08,710 --> 00:09:10,730
除非华尔街迅速提升这些数字

300
00:09:10,730 --> 00:09:12,029
届时所有人都会震惊

301
00:09:12,029 --> 00:09:14,419
这将是一场震撼与威慑的局面

302
00:09:14,419 --> 00:09:16,590
这根本不在同一个量级

303
00:09:16,590 --> 00:09:19,090
嗯，他们在这里犯了大错

304
00:09:19,090 --> 00:09:20,889
简直是灾难性的错误

305
00:09:20,889 --> 00:09:22,960
这个数字需要

306
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,519
这个数字需要达到十三或十四亿

307
00:09:25,519 --> 00:09:26,559
他们现在只有十二点

308
00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:27,480
三啊，快点

309
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:28,568
不，好吧

310
00:09:28,568 --> 00:09:30,808
之后他们将实现五一点一%的增长

311
00:09:30,808 --> 00:09:31,688
五十九%的增长

312
00:09:31,688 --> 00:09:32,729
五十七%的增长

313
00:09:32,729 --> 00:09:33,568
所有这些数据

314
00:09:33,568 --> 00:09:34,460
在我看来

315
00:09:34,460 --> 00:09:35,220
远远低估了

316
00:09:35,220 --> 00:09:36,139
因为我们正在讨论

317
00:09:36,139 --> 00:09:39,360
他们即将以前所未有的方式推动GPU业务

318
00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,859
没错，他们已经为这些产品锁定所有大客户

319
00:09:42,859 --> 00:09:45,149
此外还有CPU业务

320
00:09:45,149 --> 00:09:47,769
CPU需求远超预期

321
00:09:47,769 --> 00:09:51,509
他们很可能还能提高所有CPU的价格

322
00:09:51,509 --> 00:09:52,429
我的意思是

323
00:09:52,429 --> 00:09:53,070
天啊

324
00:09:53,070 --> 00:09:54,629
顺便说一句，他们还有其他业务

325
00:09:54,629 --> 00:09:56,330
真正能成为

326
00:09:56,330 --> 00:09:58,090
当前的领头羊

327
00:09:58,090 --> 00:10:01,620
更大的问题是如果你在想

328
00:10:01,620 --> 00:10:02,679
这支股票还能涨得多高

329
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,818
它能涨，但当前估值太低

330
00:10:04,818 --> 00:10:05,979
从每股收益来看

331
00:10:05,979 --> 00:10:08,538
我正在看九月季度

332
00:10:08,538 --> 00:10:11,418
分析师预测每股收益仅增长五十%

333
00:10:11,418 --> 00:10:12,269
同比来看

334
00:10:12,269 --> 00:10:13,429
这简直荒谬

335
00:10:13,429 --> 00:10:16,059
这简直不可信

336
00:10:16,059 --> 00:10:16,440
你知道的

337
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:17,919
这简直太离谱了

338
00:10:17,919 --> 00:10:19,000
百分之六十八

339
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:19,700
百分之九十七

340
00:10:19,700 --> 00:10:23,080
这些数字根本无法接近实际涨幅

341
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,490
在我看来差得十万八千里

342
00:10:26,490 --> 00:10:27,070
好吧

343
00:10:27,070 --> 00:10:29,669
我们谈论的这些季度

344
00:10:29,669 --> 00:10:31,929
每股收益将突破三位数

345
00:10:31,929 --> 00:10:37,659
每个季度的每股收益增长都将深陷三位数

346
00:10:37,659 --> 00:10:42,759
好吧，这就是分析师们接连犯错

347
00:10:42,759 --> 00:10:44,240
一个接一个

348
00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:45,379
他们根本不理解

349
00:10:45,379 --> 00:10:47,340
他们的营收预期严重偏低

350
00:10:47,340 --> 00:10:48,049
第二点

351
00:10:48,049 --> 00:10:51,309
每股收益将比任何人预期的更快大幅增长

352
00:10:51,309 --> 00:10:55,219
因为利润率将远超以往任何水平

353
00:10:55,219 --> 00:10:57,899
这将是AMD历史上从未见过的惊人水平

354
00:10:57,899 --> 00:10:58,299
这可不是

355
00:10:58,299 --> 00:10:58,899
这会很接近

356
00:10:58,899 --> 00:11:01,740
这将是未来几年最好的利润率

357
00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:03,440
这是我们见过的AMD历史上最好的利润率

358
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:03,980
我说啊

359
00:11:03,980 --> 00:11:05,649
这简直疯狂

360
00:11:05,649 --> 00:11:07,269
这些不是共享数据

361
00:11:07,269 --> 00:11:07,970
我看看这个

362
00:11:07,970 --> 00:11:08,129
我要

363
00:11:08,129 --> 00:11:08,850
我只是忍不住笑

364
00:11:08,850 --> 00:11:09,169
我说啊

365
00:11:09,169 --> 00:11:09,730
天啊

366
00:11:09,730 --> 00:11:10,429
他们是不是出错了

367
00:11:10,429 --> 00:11:14,029
营收情况糟糕到难以想象

368
00:11:14,029 --> 00:11:14,809
在我看来

369
00:11:14,809 --> 00:11:18,269
但每股收益才是我更觉得有趣的部分

370
00:11:18,269 --> 00:11:19,649
天啊

371
00:11:19,649 --> 00:11:20,159
好的

372
00:11:20,159 --> 00:11:22,279
这里所有数据都偏差很大

373
00:11:22,279 --> 00:11:22,899
在我看来

374
00:11:22,899 --> 00:11:24,870
现在仔细听

375
00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:25,470
呃

376
00:11:25,470 --> 00:11:26,129
哦

377
00:11:26,129 --> 00:11:28,070
又发生了

378
00:11:29,710 --> 00:11:32,259
分析师又出错了

379
00:11:32,259 --> 00:11:33,679
看看这变化有多快

380
00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:35,379
我之前没告诉你们会发生什么吗

381
00:11:35,379 --> 00:11:37,379
我说过他们会再次出错

382
00:11:37,379 --> 00:11:38,179
快看

383
00:11:38,179 --> 00:11:40,269
我反复预测过这种情况

384
00:11:40,269 --> 00:11:41,429
他们又出错了

385
00:11:41,429 --> 00:11:43,730
他们的平均目标价为72

386
00:11:43,730 --> 00:11:44,110
现在

387
00:11:44,110 --> 00:11:46,389
股价已突破500

388
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,399
现在你该怎么办

389
00:11:48,399 --> 00:11:49,320
如果你是分析师

390
00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:50,419
你得赶紧出来

391
00:11:50,419 --> 00:11:50,980
你必须

392
00:11:50,980 --> 00:11:53,049
提高价格目标才行

393
00:11:53,049 --> 00:11:55,230
他们必须大幅上调目标价

394
00:11:55,230 --> 00:11:57,479
如果你觉得他们已经调得很高了

395
00:11:57,479 --> 00:11:58,019
不

396
00:11:58,019 --> 00:11:59,359
等下一次就更夸张了

397
00:11:59,359 --> 00:11:59,698
现在

398
00:11:59,698 --> 00:12:01,538
他们将开始我所说的

399
00:12:01,538 --> 00:12:02,828
恐慌性

400
00:12:04,139 --> 00:12:07,039
价格相对于预期的上涨

401
00:12:07,039 --> 00:12:08,600
我今天已经和mu见过面了

402
00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:09,539
如果我没记错的话

403
00:12:09,539 --> 00:12:12,440
今天有家分析机构对mu进行了分析

404
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,830
我认为他们将价格目标上调到了约1650美元

405
00:12:16,830 --> 00:12:18,250
或者只是个疯狂的数字

406
00:12:18,250 --> 00:12:20,389
没错，而且你只是

407
00:12:20,389 --> 00:12:20,809
你知道的

408
00:12:20,809 --> 00:12:23,129
几天前还只有六百

409
00:12:24,159 --> 00:12:26,179
我们说的这是十二个月的价格目标

410
00:12:26,179 --> 00:12:29,740
现在amd接下来会发生什么

411
00:12:29,740 --> 00:12:31,120
将会引发恐慌

412
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:31,860
上调

413
00:12:31,860 --> 00:12:33,039
人们不会只是被动上调

414
00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:34,919
假设现在有人在四百价位

415
00:12:34,919 --> 00:12:35,980
正在观察这只股票

416
00:12:35,980 --> 00:12:36,840
五百度简直疯狂

417
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:37,679
我对这只股票看涨

418
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,500
但现在我的价格目标严重偏离

419
00:12:39,500 --> 00:12:40,960
让我调高到五百五十

420
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,700
不不不，现在人们会说

421
00:12:42,700 --> 00:12:43,460
我目前在四百价位

422
00:12:43,460 --> 00:12:44,879
我要调到七百五十

423
00:12:45,919 --> 00:12:49,029
五百价位的人会调到八百

424
00:12:49,070 --> 00:12:51,490
那些更激进的多头

425
00:12:51,490 --> 00:12:53,789
在六百价位的人开始慌了

426
00:12:53,789 --> 00:12:55,429
他们会直接跳到一千

427
00:12:56,139 --> 00:13:01,720
然后amd会出现首个千美元价格目标

428
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,159
这就是关于amd的狂欢时刻

429
00:13:04,159 --> 00:13:05,480
这就是事情发展的过程

430
00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,379
这就是我们所说的完美风暴

431
00:13:08,379 --> 00:13:09,980
这就是股票上涨的方式

432
00:13:09,980 --> 00:13:13,649
在六到十八个月内上涨数百个百分点

433
00:13:13,649 --> 00:13:14,489
如果你想知道

434
00:13:14,489 --> 00:13:15,279
它是如何发生的

435
00:13:15,279 --> 00:13:17,059
当完美风暴来临时

436
00:13:17,059 --> 00:13:18,970
被看空的股票

437
00:13:18,970 --> 00:13:22,009
没人关注amd和micron绝对符合这个标准

438
00:13:22,009 --> 00:13:23,820
一年前没人关心这些股票

439
00:13:23,820 --> 00:13:27,019
没错，当时所有人都在追捧英伟达

440
00:13:27,019 --> 00:13:28,629
可能还有帕兰蒂尔和其他几只股票

441
00:13:28,629 --> 00:13:30,789
但amd和micron

442
00:13:30,789 --> 00:13:32,659
当时都被冷落在一旁

443
00:13:32,659 --> 00:13:36,179
而现在这些股票涨幅已达数百百分比

444
00:13:36,179 --> 00:13:38,370
在如此短的时间内飙升

445
00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:40,909
当一只股票被忽视时

446
00:13:40,909 --> 00:13:41,850
无人关注它

447
00:13:41,850 --> 00:13:44,809
随后公司商业模式发生根本变化

448
00:13:44,809 --> 00:13:46,289
这两家公司都如此

449
00:13:46,289 --> 00:13:49,830
目前mu的定价能力高得离谱

450
00:13:49,830 --> 00:13:51,179
加上疯狂的需求

451
00:13:51,179 --> 00:13:55,720
现在我们有了两个根本性的变化，涉及AMD的CPU和GPU

452
00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,679
没错，然后分析师群体完全被甩在后面

453
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:01,840
华尔街随即展开激烈追逐

454
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,799
接着动量交易者开始涌入

455
00:14:03,799 --> 00:14:08,190
因为这些股票每天几乎上涨5%、10%、15%、20%

456
00:14:08,190 --> 00:14:10,129
所以动量交易者开始入场

457
00:14:10,129 --> 00:14:11,730
整个市场一片混乱

458
00:14:11,730 --> 00:14:13,649
这简直是一场狂欢

459
00:14:13,649 --> 00:14:15,529
最终派对终将结束

460
00:14:15,529 --> 00:14:16,070
没错

461
00:14:16,070 --> 00:14:17,889
当派对进行时

462
00:14:17,889 --> 00:14:19,289
兄弟你知道的

463
00:14:19,289 --> 00:14:20,190
根本停不下来

464
00:14:20,190 --> 00:14:21,039
根本停不下来

465
00:14:21,039 --> 00:14:22,240
警察可能随时到场

466
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:23,519
派对仍在继续

467
00:14:23,519 --> 00:14:24,480
根本无所谓

468
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:25,860
警察也会加入派对

469
00:14:25,860 --> 00:14:26,240
就像

470
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:27,340
这就是多么 epic 的派对

471
00:14:27,340 --> 00:14:28,649
这样就对了

472
00:14:28,649 --> 00:14:30,649
这就是当前的情况

473
00:14:30,649 --> 00:14:31,049
没错

474
00:14:31,049 --> 00:14:33,500
我现在想对所有人说

475
00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:35,419
尤其是AMD股东

476
00:14:35,419 --> 00:14:36,879
尽情享受这场派对吧

477
00:14:36,879 --> 00:14:37,860
我能理解

478
00:14:37,860 --> 00:14:40,159
如果有人不想买入AMD股票

479
00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:42,158
因为这轮涨势太过疯狂

480
00:14:42,158 --> 00:14:42,639
没错

481
00:14:42,639 --> 00:14:45,539
我完全能理解

482
00:14:46,179 --> 00:14:48,259
市盈率看起来会很高

483
00:14:48,259 --> 00:14:49,159
基于未来市盈率

484
00:14:49,159 --> 00:14:50,360
基于两倍或四倍市盈率

485
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,379
但分析师的预测完全偏离现实

486
00:14:53,379 --> 00:14:57,620
实际数据远低于预期

487
00:14:57,620 --> 00:14:58,500
如果你看到AMD

488
00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:01,089
看到70倍的前瞻市盈率

489
00:15:01,249 --> 00:15:04,649
请理解他们的盈利能力将远超

490
00:15:04,649 --> 00:15:05,609
分析师的预期

491
00:15:05,609 --> 00:15:06,528
分析师又错了

492
00:15:06,528 --> 00:15:07,168
一次又一次

493
00:15:07,168 --> 00:15:09,269
关于AMD持续表现

494
00:15:09,269 --> 00:15:10,529
他们的数据预测完全错误

495
00:15:10,529 --> 00:15:11,570
几乎每个季度

496
00:15:11,570 --> 00:15:15,149
他们误判了GPU需求类型

497
00:15:15,149 --> 00:15:15,830
他们将面临

498
00:15:15,830 --> 00:15:17,730
他们误判了CPU需求

499
00:15:17,730 --> 00:15:19,549
他们误判了价格目标

500
00:15:19,549 --> 00:15:21,129
他们误判了Lisa Sue

501
00:15:21,129 --> 00:15:23,009
记住在反应通道上

502
00:15:23,009 --> 00:15:24,870
记住斯特西·拉康

503
00:15:24,870 --> 00:15:28,100
我们甚至不确定是否需要他们不尊重

504
00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:28,980
难以置信

505
00:15:28,980 --> 00:15:31,250
对错反复循环

506
00:15:31,250 --> 00:15:33,330
所以我明白人们不想购买

507
00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:34,129
这让我想起

508
00:15:34,129 --> 00:15:37,330
当Palantir股价涨到60到80区间时

509
00:15:37,330 --> 00:15:39,250
这让我联想到这种情况

510
00:15:39,250 --> 00:15:41,789
因为Palantir当时只有七美元

511
00:15:41,789 --> 00:15:43,289
2022年回溯六个月

512
00:15:43,289 --> 00:15:43,509
没错

513
00:15:43,509 --> 00:15:44,730
像我这样的投资者在买入

514
00:15:44,730 --> 00:15:47,220
我敢肯定你们很多人在这只股票上赚了改变人生的钱

515
00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:49,740
然后它开启疯狂上涨行情

516
00:15:49,740 --> 00:15:51,620
转眼间股价就到了60到80区间

517
00:15:51,620 --> 00:15:53,909
人们都说这太荒谬了

518
00:15:53,909 --> 00:15:54,649
像什么

519
00:15:54,649 --> 00:15:55,649
这简直疯狂

520
00:15:55,649 --> 00:15:56,169
没错

521
00:15:56,169 --> 00:15:57,289
但数据在持续攀升

522
00:15:57,289 --> 00:15:58,309
上涨速度非常快

523
00:15:58,309 --> 00:16:00,470
华尔街终于开始

524
00:16:00,470 --> 00:16:02,529
至少部分理解这个故事并转向支持

525
00:16:02,529 --> 00:16:04,289
他们开始上调目标价

526
00:16:04,289 --> 00:16:07,389
然后Palantir再次大幅上涨

527
00:16:07,389 --> 00:16:09,909
没错，直到突破两百多才见顶

528
00:16:09,909 --> 00:16:12,049
所以你知道的

529
00:16:12,049 --> 00:16:13,370
当这些股票启动行情

530
00:16:13,370 --> 00:16:13,570
兄弟

531
00:16:13,570 --> 00:16:14,309
它们还会继续上涨吗

532
00:16:14,309 --> 00:16:15,350
这过程非常刺激

533
00:16:15,350 --> 00:16:15,789
没错

534
00:16:15,789 --> 00:16:16,370
穆

535
00:16:16,370 --> 00:16:17,590
我们来聊聊穆集团

536
00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:20,529
没错，这只股票正在飙升

537
00:16:20,529 --> 00:16:22,409
所以穆集团再次发力

538
00:16:22,409 --> 00:16:23,870
享受这段旅程吧

539
00:16:23,870 --> 00:16:24,610
享受这段旅程

540
00:16:24,610 --> 00:16:26,179
这简直是一场狂欢

541
00:16:26,179 --> 00:16:26,639
现在

542
00:16:26,639 --> 00:16:28,500
未来几年他们将赚得盆满钵满

543
00:16:28,500 --> 00:16:29,379
简直令人作呕

544
00:16:29,379 --> 00:16:32,000
穆的净利润率简直

545
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:32,679
你知道的

546
00:16:32,679 --> 00:16:33,879
完全不可持续

547
00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:34,840
长期来看

548
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:35,879
但短期来看

549
00:16:35,879 --> 00:16:36,679
未来一两年

550
00:16:36,679 --> 00:16:37,720
他们肯定能完成

551
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,159
他们的利润率将达到约60%的紧缩水平

552
00:16:40,159 --> 00:16:43,370
这简直令人难以置信对吧

553
00:16:43,370 --> 00:16:46,009
微盘何时会结束这场行情

554
00:16:46,009 --> 00:16:47,879
微盘股票

555
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:48,700
这里有个

556
00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:50,059
这里的关键是

557
00:16:50,059 --> 00:16:55,659
微盘股票的行情可能有两种结束方式

558
00:16:55,659 --> 00:16:57,220
显然像这样的

559
00:16:57,220 --> 00:16:59,259
所有这些超大规模公司

560
00:16:59,259 --> 00:16:59,580
比如

561
00:16:59,580 --> 00:17:00,159
你知道的

562
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:01,120
亚马逊谷歌

563
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,000
这类公司

564
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:02,539
没错

565
00:17:02,539 --> 00:17:03,100
Meta

566
00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:05,059
这些公司都愿意花巨额资金

567
00:17:05,059 --> 00:17:06,039
假设他们开始撤资

568
00:17:06,039 --> 00:17:07,460
这显然会打击英伟达

569
00:17:07,460 --> 00:17:09,900
AMD和微盘等股票也会受挫

570
00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:11,288
没错这是其中一种可能

571
00:17:11,288 --> 00:17:12,628
但这看起来不太现实

572
00:17:12,628 --> 00:17:13,689
至少短期内

573
00:17:13,689 --> 00:17:15,648
三年后可能完全不同

574
00:17:15,648 --> 00:17:16,528
你知道这会是个疯狂的市场

575
00:17:16,528 --> 00:17:18,608
但眼下短期内不太现实

576
00:17:18,608 --> 00:17:19,240
没错

577
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,720
我唯一能想到的微盘行情结束方式

578
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,640
这也是我最近在思考的

579
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,359
这就是

580
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:32,250
如果大公司宣布大规模进军存储领域

581
00:17:32,250 --> 00:17:36,069
比如亚马逊这家公司

582
00:17:36,069 --> 00:17:40,000
亚马逊不怕花大钱布局

583
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,720
为未来十年甚至更长时间打造赚钱业务

584
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,019
二十年三十年五十年

585
00:17:45,019 --> 00:17:48,859
如果你相信AI将持续爆发

586
00:17:48,859 --> 00:17:52,240
未来十年内存需求将呈指数级增长

587
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:53,119
跨多个十年

588
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,339
如果亚马逊要参与这场游戏

589
00:17:55,339 --> 00:17:56,400
为什么不进入这个领域

590
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,460
他们有足够的资金投资

591
00:17:59,460 --> 00:18:01,420
但存储行业的唯一问题

592
00:18:01,420 --> 00:18:03,589
原因在于

593
00:18:03,589 --> 00:18:06,069
为什么只有三家公司主导

594
00:18:06,069 --> 00:18:08,400
美光三星海力士

595
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,000
根本原因不是

596
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:10,380
哦

597
00:18:10,380 --> 00:18:11,019
你知道的

598
00:18:11,019 --> 00:18:14,319
技术能力不可能达到

599
00:18:14,319 --> 00:18:16,230
其实真正原因是

600
00:18:16,230 --> 00:18:20,029
建造设施需要数十亿美元

601
00:18:20,029 --> 00:18:22,849
并且在高水平上完成

602
00:18:22,849 --> 00:18:25,130
比如美光是如何做的，或者像SK海力士那样

603
00:18:25,130 --> 00:18:25,930
或者像三星

604
00:18:25,930 --> 00:18:26,650
正确执行这项任务

605
00:18:26,650 --> 00:18:28,269
大公司可以做到这一点

606
00:18:28,269 --> 00:18:29,170
英特尔也能完成

607
00:18:29,170 --> 00:18:30,329
如果他们愿意正确执行的话

608
00:18:30,329 --> 00:18:31,430
他们可以进入这个市场

609
00:18:31,430 --> 00:18:32,759
如果他们愿意的话

610
00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:34,920
西部数据可能是潜在竞争者

611
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:35,839
我们拭目以待

612
00:18:35,839 --> 00:18:37,319
但看看亚马逊这家公司

613
00:18:37,319 --> 00:18:39,509
我认为他们才是真正值得关注的

614
00:18:39,509 --> 00:18:41,628
可能会考虑亚马逊未来十年二十年甚至三十年在

615
00:18:41,628 --> 00:18:45,700
内存领域的投入规模

616
00:18:45,700 --> 00:18:47,180
为什么不进入这个行业

617
00:18:47,180 --> 00:18:49,559
同时也能赚取巨额财富对吧

618
00:18:49,559 --> 00:18:51,440
还能以更低价格生产

619
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:52,440
内存产品

620
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:52,839
比如

621
00:18:52,839 --> 00:18:53,339
你知道的

622
00:18:53,339 --> 00:18:54,680
这就是

623
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,078
这就是美光面临的困境，这些公司可能放缓支出

624
00:18:58,078 --> 00:19:00,999
或大量竞争对手涌入市场并说

625
00:19:00,999 --> 00:19:03,069
是时候停止这种投入了

626
00:19:03,069 --> 00:19:04,529
美光的问题在于

627
00:19:04,529 --> 00:19:07,579
他们总能低调行事

628
00:19:07,579 --> 00:19:09,440
从未成为市值巨头

629
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:10,240
公司和市值规模

630
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,769
美光的市值曾是数十亿美元或上百亿

631
00:19:13,769 --> 00:19:16,730
如今美光市值已达一万亿

632
00:19:16,730 --> 00:19:20,680
可能即将迈向两万亿市值

633
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,279
我们甚至可以说美光未来几年

634
00:19:23,279 --> 00:19:28,759
可能实现两三百亿美元净利润

635
00:19:28,759 --> 00:19:29,400
净利润

636
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:30,119
我不是说营收

637
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,119
我说的是净利润

638
00:19:33,170 --> 00:19:35,089
这会引起所有人关注

639
00:19:35,089 --> 00:19:36,670
所有人都开始关注并思考

640
00:19:36,670 --> 00:19:37,130
你知道的

641
00:19:37,130 --> 00:19:37,920
什么

642
00:19:38,279 --> 00:19:40,079
或许我们应该加入竞争

643
00:19:40,079 --> 00:19:42,000
现在正是狂欢时刻

644
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,799
但需明白下一刻

645
00:19:43,799 --> 00:19:44,180
这家公司

646
00:19:44,180 --> 00:19:46,099
另一家公司想进入这个市场

647
00:19:46,099 --> 00:19:47,059
他们可以做到

648
00:19:47,059 --> 00:19:47,880
并非不可能

649
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,230
实际上更容易竞争

650
00:19:50,230 --> 00:19:51,029
像美光这样的对手

651
00:19:51,029 --> 00:19:53,690
然后就是像英伟达或AMD这样的公司

652
00:19:53,690 --> 00:19:57,690
你想尝试制造比或至少不输于英伟达的芯片

653
00:19:57,690 --> 00:20:00,990
世界上真正能做到这一点的公司其实只有一个

654
00:20:00,990 --> 00:20:02,490
而这家公司就是AMD

655
00:20:02,490 --> 00:20:03,029
没错

656
00:20:03,029 --> 00:20:03,659
嗯

657
00:20:03,659 --> 00:20:05,818
即使AMD也难以做到这一点

658
00:20:05,818 --> 00:20:06,719
这太残酷了

659
00:20:06,719 --> 00:20:08,338
如果你想创造高带宽内存

660
00:20:08,338 --> 00:20:09,400
你可以做到

661
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:10,759
这将非常昂贵

662
00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:11,519
但你可以实现

663
00:20:11,519 --> 00:20:12,319
你能完成它

664
00:20:12,319 --> 00:20:12,759
这不像

665
00:20:12,759 --> 00:20:13,160
这就像

666
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:13,460
哦

667
00:20:13,460 --> 00:20:14,599
根本做不到

668
00:20:14,599 --> 00:20:15,079
不不

669
00:20:15,079 --> 00:20:15,849
你可以做到

670
00:20:15,849 --> 00:20:17,730
完成这个需要数十亿美元

671
00:20:17,730 --> 00:20:18,690
但你可以做到

672
00:20:18,690 --> 00:20:21,829
所以我们拭目以待吧

673
00:20:21,829 --> 00:20:22,910
但这就是

674
00:20:22,910 --> 00:20:23,390
怎么回事

675
00:20:23,390 --> 00:20:24,410
对她现在来说

676
00:20:24,410 --> 00:20:27,130
在两种情况出现之前

677
00:20:27,130 --> 00:20:29,230
享受作为MU股东的旅程

678
00:20:29,230 --> 00:20:30,329
对了好的

679
00:20:30,329 --> 00:20:30,910
接下来这里

680
00:20:30,910 --> 00:20:33,670
让我们讨论视频股票是否有希望

681
00:20:33,670 --> 00:20:34,130
这不会让我们

682
00:20:34,130 --> 00:20:35,309
索菲传来好消息

683
00:20:35,309 --> 00:20:36,289
对凯克也是好消息

684
00:20:36,289 --> 00:20:38,650
以及接下来的AMD/MU动向

685
00:20:38,650 --> 00:20:41,589
好的在英伟达方面

686
00:20:41,589 --> 00:20:42,470
看这个

687
00:20:42,470 --> 00:20:42,869
我是说

688
00:20:42,869 --> 00:20:46,670
自从我们去年万圣节前回溯数据以来

689
00:20:46,670 --> 00:20:49,910
股票涨幅约5%或6%

690
00:20:49,910 --> 00:20:50,829
数据表现惊人

691
00:20:50,829 --> 00:20:53,960
没错但股价

692
00:20:54,319 --> 00:20:55,180
你知道的

693
00:20:55,180 --> 00:20:57,359
没有达到预期表现

694
00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,160
尤其是面对当前数据表现

695
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,388
如果你买入英伟达股票

696
00:21:03,388 --> 00:21:06,348
希望股价达到十万亿市值

697
00:21:06,348 --> 00:21:09,630
目前市值约五万亿

698
00:21:09,630 --> 00:21:10,710
买入英伟达股票

699
00:21:10,710 --> 00:21:12,549
目标是未来几年翻倍

700
00:21:12,549 --> 00:21:14,970
如何从五万亿迈向十万亿

701
00:21:14,970 --> 00:21:17,388
这就是他们可能做到的方法

702
00:21:17,709 --> 00:21:19,588
中国 中国

703
00:21:19,588 --> 00:21:23,989
中国市场的英伟达业务一直相对封闭

704
00:21:23,989 --> 00:21:25,588
这里暂时还有一段时间

705
00:21:25,588 --> 00:21:26,755
没错

706
00:21:27,220 --> 00:21:29,180
英伟达仍在与中国开展业务

707
00:21:29,180 --> 00:21:33,199
但如果中国市场能开放，情况就不同了

708
00:21:33,199 --> 00:21:37,888
那么对中国市场开放将为英伟达带来巨大机遇

709
00:21:37,888 --> 00:21:39,449
不仅如此

710
00:21:40,449 --> 00:21:44,910
如果中国市场需求大幅增加

711
00:21:44,910 --> 00:21:48,410
他们可以提高价格或在美国市场保持稳定

712
00:21:48,410 --> 00:21:49,710
同时惠及美国客户

713
00:21:49,710 --> 00:21:52,849
没错 他们甚至可能再次提升利润率

714
00:21:52,849 --> 00:21:55,130
近期围绕英伟达的担忧之一

715
00:21:55,130 --> 00:21:57,089
未来一两年利润率将如何变化

716
00:21:57,089 --> 00:21:59,730
如果突然出现来自中国的强劲需求

717
00:21:59,730 --> 00:22:02,089
这将帮助英伟达维持利润率

718
00:22:02,089 --> 00:22:02,710
非常强劲

719
00:22:02,710 --> 00:22:03,269
没错

720
00:22:03,269 --> 00:22:05,390
这将为市场引入另一个庞大买家

721
00:22:05,390 --> 00:22:08,240
这对公司目前来说还不存在

722
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:08,680
嗯

723
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,059
尤其是高端GPU领域

724
00:22:11,059 --> 00:22:16,839
所以如果中国传来利好消息

725
00:22:16,839 --> 00:22:23,559
这可能是推动英伟达市值突破十万亿的关键

726
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,440
如果无法在中国市场大规模打开局面

727
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:28,180
将会很困难

728
00:22:28,180 --> 00:22:30,980
之所以困难是因为你明白

729
00:22:30,980 --> 00:22:32,640
像Meta

730
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:33,279
微软

731
00:22:33,279 --> 00:22:33,559
谷歌

732
00:22:33,559 --> 00:22:35,700
这些大公司正在投入巨额资金

733
00:22:35,700 --> 00:22:37,420
对的 亚马逊

734
00:22:37,420 --> 00:22:40,640
这些公司预算已接近极限

735
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,720
明年或许还能小幅增加

736
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,200
或者后年如果需要的话

737
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,380
但不会大幅增长

738
00:22:46,380 --> 00:22:52,328
因为他们几乎将全部运营现金流用于资本支出

739
00:22:52,328 --> 00:22:57,630
未来这些公司不会有巨额预算增长

740
00:22:57,630 --> 00:23:02,460
此外AMD现在也加入竞争

741
00:23:02,460 --> 00:23:04,200
将开始抢占市场份额

742
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,440
从今年下半年开始

743
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,159
并将持续数年

744
00:23:07,159 --> 00:23:07,759
没错

745
00:23:07,759 --> 00:23:09,719
AMD将夺取市场份额

746
00:23:09,719 --> 00:23:14,990
叠加未来公司无法大幅增加资本支出

747
00:23:14,990 --> 00:23:19,950
这意味着英伟达未来三年的营收增长潜力远不及

748
00:23:19,950 --> 00:23:20,569
你知道的

749
00:23:20,569 --> 00:23:23,329
过去几年的机遇

750
00:23:25,739 --> 00:23:28,699
如果中国市场真正开放

751
00:23:28,699 --> 00:23:31,378
英伟达确实能卖出他们的高端显卡

752
00:23:31,378 --> 00:23:34,180
中国客户都想要购买它们

753
00:23:34,180 --> 00:23:37,579
这就是这家公司市值突破万亿美元的原因

754
00:23:37,579 --> 00:23:39,140
但必须承认他们确实做到了

755
00:23:39,140 --> 00:23:42,400
现在必须这样发展才能达到目标

756
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:43,759
问题在于

757
00:23:43,759 --> 00:23:48,900
英伟达承认已基本失去中国AI芯片市场

758
00:23:48,900 --> 00:23:51,099
这实在是令人遗憾

759
00:23:51,099 --> 00:23:53,969
因为英伟达被迫在此让步

760
00:23:53,969 --> 00:23:57,348
英伟达本可赢得中国AI市场

761
00:23:57,348 --> 00:23:59,009
我对此深信不疑

762
00:23:59,009 --> 00:24:00,848
他们本能击败华为

763
00:24:00,848 --> 00:24:02,569
他们本能胜过所有人

764
00:24:02,569 --> 00:24:03,930
这实在可惜

765
00:24:03,930 --> 00:24:05,789
对于美国企业而言

766
00:24:05,789 --> 00:24:07,690
让美国企业参与竞争

767
00:24:07,690 --> 00:24:09,220
他们必将取胜

768
00:24:09,220 --> 00:24:12,559
这已反复证明

769
00:24:12,559 --> 00:24:17,890
只要给予公平竞争环境

770
00:24:17,890 --> 00:24:19,029
他们自然会赢

771
00:24:20,109 --> 00:24:22,970
英伟达本可轻松取胜

772
00:24:24,009 --> 00:24:27,410
但因地缘政治因素

773
00:24:27,410 --> 00:24:30,539
关税和中美对抗不断

774
00:24:30,539 --> 00:24:31,920
所有这些纷争

775
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,519
英伟达被迫在此失利

776
00:24:34,519 --> 00:24:38,559
现在不得不将中国市场拱手让给华为

777
00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:40,900
但这并不意味永远退出

778
00:24:40,900 --> 00:24:42,420
不过

779
00:24:42,420 --> 00:24:44,640
随着局势发展

780
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,460
难度将越来越大

781
00:24:45,460 --> 00:24:48,920
英伟达重返中国市场将愈发艰难

782
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,170
所以如果要改变现状

783
00:24:51,170 --> 00:24:53,630
必须尽快行动

784
00:24:53,630 --> 00:24:58,180
黄仁勋正竭尽全力解决问题

785
00:24:58,180 --> 00:25:00,420
他已多次访问中国

786
00:25:00,420 --> 00:25:01,299
在此关键时刻

787
00:25:01,299 --> 00:25:02,809
猜猜看

788
00:25:02,809 --> 00:25:04,549
另一巨头莉莎·苏

789
00:25:07,670 --> 00:25:11,680
巨头们正全力开拓中国市场

790
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:17,929
这对AMD和英伟达都是重大机遇

791
00:25:17,929 --> 00:25:18,709
拭目以待

792
00:25:18,709 --> 00:25:22,028
关键是要让企业公平竞争

793
00:25:22,028 --> 00:25:22,949
他们必将胜出

794
00:25:22,949 --> 00:25:24,069
他们必将胜出

795
00:25:24,069 --> 00:25:25,609
这始终如此

796
00:25:25,609 --> 00:25:27,380
让我们拭目以待

797
00:25:27,380 --> 00:25:27,880
让我们拭目以待

798
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:28,299
好吧

799
00:25:28,299 --> 00:25:29,039
尼克在这里

800
00:25:29,039 --> 00:25:31,240
我有一些好消息要告诉sofi股东

801
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:31,759
好的

802
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:35,230
听着soi股东们

803
00:25:35,390 --> 00:25:37,829
这支股票既受人喜爱又遭人厌恶

804
00:25:37,829 --> 00:25:40,150
我不知道是否见过如此备受爱恨交加的股票

805
00:25:40,150 --> 00:25:41,670
它之所以备受爱恨

806
00:25:41,670 --> 00:25:42,470
像我这样的人

807
00:25:42,470 --> 00:25:43,380
都热爱这支股票

808
00:25:43,380 --> 00:25:44,579
他们在上面赚得盆满钵满

809
00:25:44,579 --> 00:25:46,680
当我刚开始买入sofi时

810
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:51,680
这支股票在公开账户里曾是6美元，93美分

811
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,240
然后我在6.9美元时买入更多股份

812
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:54,339
接着在8美元时再次买入

813
00:25:54,339 --> 00:25:57,259
0.3美元和7.74美元，然后11.74美元

814
00:25:57,259 --> 00:25:57,740
我爱

815
00:25:57,740 --> 00:26:00,220
soi股票对我来说表现惊人

816
00:26:00,220 --> 00:26:01,500
这真是神奇的股票

817
00:26:01,500 --> 00:26:05,569
但有人去年以30美元和2.5美元买入

818
00:26:05,569 --> 00:26:08,309
没错，这些人看着股价下跌，讨厌这支股票

819
00:26:08,309 --> 00:26:09,390
这支股票真差劲

820
00:26:09,390 --> 00:26:10,210
这太有趣了

821
00:26:10,210 --> 00:26:10,950
没错

822
00:26:10,950 --> 00:26:12,430
取决于你买入的价格

823
00:26:12,430 --> 00:26:13,630
你买入股票的价格

824
00:26:13,630 --> 00:26:14,670
尤其是个股

825
00:26:14,670 --> 00:26:15,630
非常重要

826
00:26:15,630 --> 00:26:18,089
市场本身长期并不重要

827
00:26:18,089 --> 00:26:21,369
没错，只要长期持续投资市场

828
00:26:21,369 --> 00:26:22,690
但我要告诉你关于个股

829
00:26:22,690 --> 00:26:25,529
以6美元买入sofi和以300美元买入差别很大

830
00:26:25,529 --> 00:26:27,059
对吧

831
00:26:27,059 --> 00:26:29,140
以一美元买入tier七级

832
00:26:29,140 --> 00:26:30,299
当我最初买入时

833
00:26:30,299 --> 00:26:31,140
在200美元时买入

834
00:26:31,140 --> 00:26:31,380
比如

835
00:26:31,380 --> 00:26:32,180
就在去年

836
00:26:32,180 --> 00:26:32,859
没错

837
00:26:32,859 --> 00:26:35,420
比如去年四月

838
00:26:35,420 --> 00:26:36,740
去年以80多美元买入

839
00:26:36,740 --> 00:26:39,449
或者现在以504美元买入amd

840
00:26:39,449 --> 00:26:40,669
你想支付什么价格呢

841
00:26:40,669 --> 00:26:42,109
你想支付什么价格

842
00:26:42,109 --> 00:26:42,950
关于soi股票

843
00:26:42,950 --> 00:26:43,630
好消息来了

844
00:26:43,630 --> 00:26:44,670
好的emit

845
00:26:44,670 --> 00:26:46,789
对sofa首席做了精彩采访

846
00:26:46,789 --> 00:26:47,109
ceo

847
00:26:47,109 --> 00:26:48,170
这里是安东尼·诺托

848
00:26:48,170 --> 00:26:49,210
你知道最近

849
00:26:49,210 --> 00:26:50,799
好的，安东尼·诺托

850
00:26:50,799 --> 00:26:51,519
他知道他说了什么

851
00:26:51,519 --> 00:26:51,960
他说过

852
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:52,819
我会这么说

853
00:26:52,819 --> 00:26:55,059
而我会因此受到批评

854
00:26:55,059 --> 00:26:56,579
但这是我真正相信的

855
00:26:56,579 --> 00:27:00,659
我不明白为什么不能成为千亿美元公司

856
00:27:00,659 --> 00:27:01,378
归根结底

857
00:27:01,378 --> 00:27:02,459
我们正在解决某个问题

858
00:27:02,459 --> 00:27:04,578
人们真正关心的

859
00:27:05,470 --> 00:27:08,549
安东尼·诺托这番话可不得了啊

860
00:27:08,549 --> 00:27:11,410
但这不是疯狂的言论

861
00:27:11,410 --> 00:27:13,369
因为我本人深信不疑

862
00:27:13,369 --> 00:27:14,730
我确实相信

863
00:27:14,730 --> 00:27:18,049
未来十年它将成长为金融巨头

864
00:27:18,049 --> 00:27:18,730
就在那里

865
00:27:18,730 --> 00:27:21,160
现在你可能认为Sofi更是一家小众公司

866
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:22,480
他们可能有十四万

867
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,490
十五万会员

868
00:27:24,490 --> 00:27:24,950
客户

869
00:27:24,950 --> 00:27:26,109
无论你怎么称呼他们

870
00:27:26,109 --> 00:27:27,049
差不多这样

871
00:27:27,049 --> 00:27:29,029
但我毫不怀疑

872
00:27:29,029 --> 00:27:32,449
只要安东尼·诺托不过度杠杆化公司

873
00:27:32,449 --> 00:27:33,929
这个世界就是他们的

874
00:27:33,929 --> 00:27:36,608
股价将维持在150美元至100美元以上

875
00:27:36,608 --> 00:27:38,048
几年后就会看到

876
00:27:38,048 --> 00:27:40,099
他们正迈向金融巨头

877
00:27:40,099 --> 00:27:41,180
如果你看Sofi

878
00:27:41,180 --> 00:27:41,740
现在

879
00:27:41,740 --> 00:27:42,500
更高的市值

880
00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:43,279
这家公司目前大约

881
00:27:43,279 --> 00:27:44,579
二十亿美元左右

882
00:27:44,579 --> 00:27:46,440
二十亿美元

883
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:47,920
这算不了什么你知道的

884
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:49,900
当我们谈论金融巨头时

885
00:27:49,900 --> 00:27:54,460
我们指的是市值数百亿的公司

886
00:27:54,460 --> 00:27:56,990
而我认为

887
00:27:56,990 --> 00:27:59,490
所以我在未来五到十年十五年间

888
00:27:59,490 --> 00:28:03,029
所以我将这家公司视为堡垒

889
00:28:03,349 --> 00:28:04,970
如果公司过度杠杆化

890
00:28:07,890 --> 00:28:10,990
只要他从不过度杠杆化

891
00:28:10,990 --> 00:28:14,759
并尽可能保持以费用为基础的模式

892
00:28:14,759 --> 00:28:19,420
在作为中间商并让他人承担底层风险方面

893
00:28:19,420 --> 00:28:20,279
将会是

894
00:28:20,279 --> 00:28:23,640
接下来许多年都将充满乐趣

895
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,859
对了，当利率上升时

896
00:28:27,859 --> 00:28:28,900
或许会有影响

897
00:28:28,900 --> 00:28:29,660
我的股票价格

898
00:28:29,660 --> 00:28:30,480
短期内

899
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,980
存在经济衰退担忧或处于衰退期的时间段

900
00:28:32,980 --> 00:28:34,220
这将对股价造成打击

901
00:28:34,220 --> 00:28:38,329
但最终我看这家公司将成长为金融巨头

902
00:28:38,329 --> 00:28:40,670
像美国银行这样的公司

903
00:28:40,670 --> 00:28:41,650
像花旗集团这样的公司

904
00:28:41,650 --> 00:28:42,720
这类公司

905
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,460
我认为它们对新生代越来越不相关

906
00:28:46,460 --> 00:28:48,430
而我认为像索菲这样的公司

907
00:28:48,430 --> 00:28:50,650
最符合新生代需求

908
00:28:50,650 --> 00:28:53,750
我相信许多年轻人都在注册

909
00:28:53,750 --> 00:28:54,509
所以我可以记住

910
00:28:54,509 --> 00:28:56,380
并非全部基础用户

911
00:28:56,380 --> 00:28:57,539
一群年轻人对吧

912
00:28:57,539 --> 00:28:59,319
他们也有老年用户在使用

913
00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:00,799
但我真的认为

914
00:29:00,799 --> 00:29:01,559
正如你所知

915
00:29:01,559 --> 00:29:02,519
吸引千禧一代

916
00:29:02,519 --> 00:29:03,660
吸引Z世代

917
00:29:03,660 --> 00:29:04,599
下一代

918
00:29:04,599 --> 00:29:05,679
阿尔法世代

919
00:29:05,679 --> 00:29:07,759
如果他们能做到高水平

920
00:29:07,759 --> 00:29:11,759
这些人会将索菲作为所有事务的一站式平台

921
00:29:11,759 --> 00:29:12,929
与财务相关

922
00:29:12,929 --> 00:29:14,788
无论是通过索菲投资

923
00:29:14,788 --> 00:29:16,388
是否需要开设支票账户

924
00:29:16,388 --> 00:29:17,269
储蓄账户

925
00:29:17,269 --> 00:29:18,148
定期存款账户

926
00:29:18,148 --> 00:29:18,709
对吧

927
00:29:18,709 --> 00:29:20,369
如果他们想购买国债

928
00:29:20,369 --> 00:29:22,009
是否需要信用卡

929
00:29:22,009 --> 00:29:24,130
是否需要申请房贷

930
00:29:24,130 --> 00:29:25,210
或者购车贷款

931
00:29:25,210 --> 00:29:26,549
是否需要个人贷款

932
00:29:26,549 --> 00:29:29,900
所有业务一站式办理对吧

933
00:29:31,019 --> 00:29:33,990
我认为西尔瓦的做法非常出色

934
00:29:33,990 --> 00:29:35,549
当安东尼提到

935
00:29:35,549 --> 00:29:37,569
他们面前有万亿级机会

936
00:29:38,730 --> 00:29:39,250
是的

937
00:29:39,250 --> 00:29:40,769
我相信他们能做到

938
00:29:40,769 --> 00:29:41,750
我相信他们能做到

939
00:29:41,750 --> 00:29:43,369
这也是我押注的原因

940
00:29:43,369 --> 00:29:45,690
我永远不能过度投资索菲股票

941
00:29:45,690 --> 00:29:47,109
因为伴随风险

942
00:29:47,109 --> 00:29:48,659
如果他们过度杠杆化

943
00:29:48,659 --> 00:29:50,638
你知道的可能会破产

944
00:29:50,638 --> 00:29:53,078
在衰退中可能变得非常糟糕

945
00:29:53,078 --> 00:29:56,380
但保持公司杠杆率健康

946
00:29:56,380 --> 00:29:57,160
嗯

947
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:57,359
啊

948
00:29:57,359 --> 00:29:57,880
我的天啊

949
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,210
就像世界是他们的男人

950
00:30:00,210 --> 00:30:01,089
世界归零了

951
00:30:01,089 --> 00:30:01,430
好的

952
00:30:01,430 --> 00:30:02,190
接下来这个

953
00:30:02,190 --> 00:30:03,069
蛋糕的好消息

954
00:30:03,069 --> 00:30:06,049
然后我们将进入下个AMD和MU类型股票

955
00:30:06,049 --> 00:30:06,509
好的

956
00:30:06,509 --> 00:30:07,880
所以蛋糕

957
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,819
这是我常提到的优质股票

958
00:30:11,819 --> 00:30:13,099
强劲分红股

959
00:30:13,099 --> 00:30:15,319
我在股票上赚了七万七千美元

960
00:30:15,319 --> 00:30:16,380
仅公开交易部分

961
00:30:16,380 --> 00:30:17,759
不包含分红

962
00:30:17,759 --> 00:30:19,200
股票收据

963
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,140
看看我何时开始买入股票

964
00:30:21,140 --> 00:30:21,460
对的

965
00:30:21,460 --> 00:30:23,980
当时股价约32美元左右

966
00:30:23,980 --> 00:30:27,390
32美元没人谈论这只股票

967
00:30:27,390 --> 00:30:29,569
但这是一只绝佳股票

968
00:30:29,569 --> 00:30:31,450
人们却忽视它

969
00:30:31,450 --> 00:30:33,730
而我却说你们忽视了

970
00:30:33,730 --> 00:30:35,069
你们错过了绝佳机会

971
00:30:35,069 --> 00:30:36,009
长期来看

972
00:30:36,009 --> 00:30:37,779
但做你自己想做的事

973
00:30:37,779 --> 00:30:40,480
但关于蛋糕的这波行情最令人印象深刻

974
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,460
对且我们还有很长路要走

975
00:30:42,460 --> 00:30:46,400
这波上涨伴随消费信心

976
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:47,799
你见过消费信心吗

977
00:30:47,799 --> 00:30:48,680
近几年

978
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,140
这是史上最差的

979
00:30:52,318 --> 00:30:55,199
几十年来一直做消费者信心调查

980
00:30:55,199 --> 00:30:56,638
可能从你父母那一代开始

981
00:30:57,798 --> 00:30:58,618
我们还是孩子

982
00:30:58,618 --> 00:31:01,750
好吧或者你祖父母还是孩子

983
00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:05,750
看看消费信心有多差

984
00:31:05,750 --> 00:31:07,900
但像蛋糕这样的股票

985
00:31:07,900 --> 00:31:09,740
确实反映信心回升

986
00:31:09,740 --> 00:31:11,420
因为没人需要去芝士蛋糕工厂

987
00:31:11,420 --> 00:31:13,160
没人需要去花童餐厅

988
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,279
没人需要去北意大利或厨艺脱口秀

989
00:31:16,279 --> 00:31:17,519
或他们的其他餐厅概念

990
00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:19,099
没人需要这么做

991
00:31:19,099 --> 00:31:20,539
这是完全自由的选择

992
00:31:20,539 --> 00:31:25,119
尽管消费信心多年低迷

993
00:31:25,119 --> 00:31:26,299
看看这只股票

994
00:31:26,299 --> 00:31:27,740
看看这家公司数据

995
00:31:27,740 --> 00:31:28,449
对的

996
00:31:28,449 --> 00:31:30,868
我从金融危机前就持有

997
00:31:30,868 --> 00:31:36,089
这能真实反映近年消费信心之差

998
00:31:36,089 --> 00:31:37,930
这是次贷危机时期

999
00:31:39,049 --> 00:31:41,450
伟大的金融危机

1000
00:31:41,609 --> 00:31:44,569
消费者信心看起来很糟糕

1001
00:31:44,569 --> 00:31:46,869
即使与伟大的金融危机相比

1002
00:31:46,869 --> 00:31:48,509
失业率曾飙升至十个百分点

1003
00:31:48,509 --> 00:31:49,190
另外

1004
00:31:49,190 --> 00:31:50,888
这太疯狂了

1005
00:31:50,888 --> 00:31:53,409
绝对疯狂

1006
00:31:53,409 --> 00:31:55,128
这让人不禁思考

1007
00:31:55,128 --> 00:31:57,659
你们的经济数据会是多少

1008
00:31:57,659 --> 00:31:58,858
什么是蛋糕

1009
00:31:58,858 --> 00:32:00,078
股价会是多少

1010
00:32:00,078 --> 00:32:02,170
当消费者信心恢复时

1011
00:32:02,170 --> 00:32:04,009
或许你会陷入末日论

1012
00:32:04,009 --> 00:32:06,650
你认为消费者信心永远不会再好转

1013
00:32:06,650 --> 00:32:09,170
人们将永远感到绝望

1014
00:32:09,170 --> 00:32:12,710
没错 我选择更乐观的态度

1015
00:32:12,710 --> 00:32:14,609
我相信在未来几年

1016
00:32:14,609 --> 00:32:16,710
消费者信心将强劲复苏

1017
00:32:16,710 --> 00:32:19,269
我相信未来经济会更强大

1018
00:32:19,269 --> 00:32:20,950
周围会有更多积极因素

1019
00:32:20,950 --> 00:32:25,359
总体来看 美国普通人前景更光明

1020
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,759
消费者信心调查也将更光明

1021
00:32:29,759 --> 00:32:32,059
当那些光明日子到来时

1022
00:32:32,059 --> 00:32:34,450
这对蛋糕股价意味着什么

1023
00:32:34,609 --> 00:32:36,690
这对蛋糕数据意味着什么

1024
00:32:36,900 --> 00:32:39,440
这对两者都是非常好的信号

1025
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,400
没错 尽管有这一切

1026
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,400
它仍表现惊人

1027
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:44,359
更多好消息

1028
00:32:44,359 --> 00:32:45,319
最近传来消息

1029
00:32:45,319 --> 00:32:48,519
芝士蛋糕工厂目标价上调至68美元 从5美元

1030
00:32:48,519 --> 00:32:49,599
摩根大通上调至8美元

1031
00:32:49,599 --> 00:32:51,089
但更重要的是

1032
00:32:51,089 --> 00:32:52,210
摩根大通

1033
00:32:52,210 --> 00:32:52,430
请记住

1034
00:32:52,430 --> 00:32:54,829
他们在华尔街的影响力不逊于任何人

1035
00:32:54,829 --> 00:32:55,269
没错

1036
00:32:55,269 --> 00:32:57,880
从减持评级调至中性

1037
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,359
他们认为股票将跑输市场

1038
00:33:01,359 --> 00:33:03,779
他们认为至少能与市场持平

1039
00:33:03,779 --> 00:33:04,650
没错

1040
00:33:04,650 --> 00:33:06,329
我认为会表现更好

1041
00:33:06,329 --> 00:33:09,269
这对蛋糕股票是重要进步

1042
00:33:09,269 --> 00:33:10,309
总体观点

1043
00:33:10,309 --> 00:33:11,769
你希望蛋糕有更多好消息

1044
00:33:11,769 --> 00:33:13,159
这里又有好消息

1045
00:33:13,159 --> 00:33:16,659
原油期货五日连跌

1046
00:33:16,659 --> 00:33:18,378
油价下跌约9%

1047
00:33:18,378 --> 00:33:19,200
好的

1048
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:20,799
这是人们常说的事

1049
00:33:20,799 --> 00:33:21,180
好的

1050
00:33:21,180 --> 00:33:26,230
如果一个美国人不得不在汽油上花更多钱

1051
00:33:26,230 --> 00:33:27,930
然后还要花更多钱去餐厅

1052
00:33:27,930 --> 00:33:28,559
没错

1053
00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:29,000
确实如此

1054
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:29,279
我是说

1055
00:33:29,279 --> 00:33:29,480
这确实

1056
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:29,920
你知道的

1057
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:30,500
事实如此

1058
00:33:30,500 --> 00:33:31,079
并不是像

1059
00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:31,940
它会摧毁

1060
00:33:31,940 --> 00:33:33,099
完全破坏经济对吧

1061
00:33:33,099 --> 00:33:35,240
每加仑多一美元不会摧毁所有人

1062
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:36,730
但这是你口袋里的更多钱

1063
00:33:36,730 --> 00:33:38,210
普通美国人钱包里的钱对吧

1064
00:33:38,210 --> 00:33:40,230
原油价格下跌非常有利

1065
00:33:40,230 --> 00:33:43,269
这也意味着十年期收益率和整体收益率

1066
00:33:43,269 --> 00:33:43,809
正在下降

1067
00:33:43,809 --> 00:33:44,950
国债收益率在下降对吧

1068
00:33:44,950 --> 00:33:47,470
因此收益率可能见顶

1069
00:33:47,470 --> 00:33:50,339
这对分红股票非常有利

1070
00:33:50,339 --> 00:33:51,680
蛋糕是一家分红股票

1071
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,759
这对需要借债扩张业务的公司也很有利

1072
00:33:55,759 --> 00:33:56,980
这正是蛋糕公司的特点

1073
00:33:56,980 --> 00:33:57,200
没错

1074
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,849
因为凯特将在未来几年大量举债

1075
00:33:59,849 --> 00:34:03,170
在北卡塔尔建造大量花砖

1076
00:34:03,170 --> 00:34:05,450
因为这些概念绝对棒极了

1077
00:34:05,450 --> 00:34:06,950
没错，还有其他概念

1078
00:34:06,950 --> 00:34:10,579
没错，如果我们能降低收益率

1079
00:34:10,579 --> 00:34:11,320
没错

1080
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,400
这对蛋糕在多个方面都是利好

1081
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,980
这也是为何开始出现上涨 momentum

1082
00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:17,550
随着收益率下降

1083
00:34:17,550 --> 00:34:19,610
蛋糕股价大幅上涨

1084
00:34:19,610 --> 00:34:21,710
没错，因此收益率可能见顶

1085
00:34:21,710 --> 00:34:22,949
这对蛋糕来说是好事

1086
00:34:22,949 --> 00:34:23,849
没错

1087
00:34:23,849 --> 00:34:24,389
这是股票

1088
00:34:24,389 --> 00:34:26,730
当初买这只股票被嘲笑过

1089
00:34:26,730 --> 00:34:27,289
好的

1090
00:34:27,289 --> 00:34:28,510
谁会买蛋糕股票

1091
00:34:28,510 --> 00:34:30,818
买这只股票太奇怪了对吧

1092
00:34:31,298 --> 00:34:31,958
好的

1093
00:34:31,958 --> 00:34:36,898
蛋糕股票相比那些知名公司表现如何

1094
00:34:36,898 --> 00:34:38,278
为什么不直接买这只股票

1095
00:34:38,278 --> 00:34:39,298
当我买入这只股票时

1096
00:34:39,298 --> 00:34:39,869
没错

1097
00:34:39,869 --> 00:34:40,690
星巴克

1098
00:34:40,690 --> 00:34:41,309
麦当劳

1099
00:34:41,309 --> 00:34:41,849
Chipotle

1100
00:34:41,849 --> 00:34:42,449
必胜客

1101
00:34:42,449 --> 00:34:42,969
我问了

1102
00:34:42,969 --> 00:34:43,449
双子座

1103
00:34:43,449 --> 00:34:45,429
因为我不想花时间做所有股票图表

1104
00:34:45,429 --> 00:34:48,440
我说你知道这些股票过去六个月的表现如何

1105
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,429
星巴克上涨约3%

1106
00:34:50,429 --> 00:34:51,989
麦当劳下跌2%

1107
00:34:51,989 --> 00:34:55,409
Chipotle下跌20%，必胜客上涨7%

1108
00:34:55,409 --> 00:34:57,579
过去六个月

1109
00:34:57,579 --> 00:35:02,239
故事的寓意是所有大家熟知的热门股票

1110
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:08,079
绝对在缺乏更恰当的词下已经持续低迷多年

1111
00:35:08,079 --> 00:35:09,239
此时此刻

1112
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:13,449
与此同时，蛋糕股过去三年表现如何

1113
00:35:13,449 --> 00:35:17,699
上涨106%

1114
00:35:17,699 --> 00:35:19,380
我觉得自己当初的决定是对的

1115
00:35:19,380 --> 00:35:23,420
恭喜所有蛋糕股东获得丰厚回报

1116
00:35:23,420 --> 00:35:26,039
没错，你可能被困在那些股票里

1117
00:35:26,039 --> 00:35:28,400
这些股票确实表现惊人

1118
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:29,000
星巴克

1119
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:29,519
麦当劳

1120
00:35:29,519 --> 00:35:29,960
Chipotle

1121
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:30,360
必胜客

1122
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:31,260
这些股票表现惊人

1123
00:35:31,260 --> 00:35:31,860
直接买入这些

1124
00:35:31,860 --> 00:35:32,159
嗯

1125
00:35:32,159 --> 00:35:32,539
是的

1126
00:35:32,539 --> 00:35:34,780
你这几年一直在亏钱

1127
00:35:34,780 --> 00:35:35,289
没错

1128
00:35:35,289 --> 00:35:37,409
而蛋糕股却赚得盆满钵满

1129
00:35:37,409 --> 00:35:39,030
恭喜所有投资者

1130
00:35:39,030 --> 00:35:40,050
蛋糕股东

1131
00:35:40,050 --> 00:35:41,250
我们未来前景光明

1132
00:35:41,250 --> 00:35:42,010
嗯

1133
00:35:42,010 --> 00:35:42,648
长期来看

1134
00:35:42,648 --> 00:35:43,929
这是三位数涨幅

1135
00:35:43,929 --> 00:35:45,650
接下来这个

1136
00:35:45,650 --> 00:35:47,110
下一个AMD是什么

1137
00:35:47,110 --> 00:35:49,670
这些股票的走势类型

1138
00:35:49,670 --> 00:35:50,340
好的

1139
00:35:50,340 --> 00:35:52,500
所以X Y

1140
00:35:52,500 --> 00:35:55,099
这是消费 discretionary 类

1141
00:35:55,099 --> 00:35:56,000
ETF

1142
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:56,559
好的

1143
00:35:56,559 --> 00:36:00,019
理解消费 discretionary 的方式是

1144
00:36:00,019 --> 00:36:03,059
这些是面向消费者的商品

1145
00:36:03,059 --> 00:36:04,019
比如你我

1146
00:36:04,019 --> 00:36:05,960
但并非必需品

1147
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,639
不像必须拥有这些产品

1148
00:36:07,639 --> 00:36:10,679
消费必需品更偏向日常需求

1149
00:36:10,679 --> 00:36:12,320
因此人们会考虑消费必需品

1150
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,239
比如可口可乐

1151
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:14,179
百事可乐

1152
00:36:14,179 --> 00:36:15,300
嗯，纸巾

1153
00:36:15,300 --> 00:36:15,780
卫生纸

1154
00:36:15,780 --> 00:36:16,780
比如宝洁公司

1155
00:36:16,780 --> 00:36:17,460
金佰利克拉克

1156
00:36:17,460 --> 00:36:18,460
这类产品对吧

1157
00:36:18,460 --> 00:36:20,780
消费非必需品而非必需品

1158
00:36:20,780 --> 00:36:22,510
消费非必需品更像

1159
00:36:22,510 --> 00:36:25,309
我想投资这家公司

1160
00:36:25,309 --> 00:36:29,039
没错，如果追溯到2021年11月

1161
00:36:29,039 --> 00:36:32,059
这个ETF仅占16%

1162
00:36:32,059 --> 00:36:32,619
表现糟糕

1163
00:36:32,619 --> 00:36:33,099
没错

1164
00:36:33,099 --> 00:36:37,108
但该ETF的两大成分股是亚马逊和特斯拉

1165
00:36:37,108 --> 00:36:39,028
我认为它们不应属于此类

1166
00:36:39,028 --> 00:36:40,208
但确实存在

1167
00:36:40,208 --> 00:36:42,369
这些股票过去三年表现惊人

1168
00:36:42,369 --> 00:36:43,708
或近几年

1169
00:36:43,708 --> 00:36:44,278
没错

1170
00:36:44,278 --> 00:36:45,298
于是我说道

1171
00:36:45,298 --> 00:36:46,759
剔除特斯拉

1172
00:36:46,759 --> 00:36:47,759
剔除亚马逊

1173
00:36:47,759 --> 00:36:48,639
如果未包含它们

1174
00:36:48,639 --> 00:36:51,440
自2021年11月以来的回报率是多少

1175
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:52,380
3%

1176
00:36:52,380 --> 00:36:57,679
三年回报率3%

1177
00:36:57,679 --> 00:37:00,500
现在已是2026年

1178
00:37:00,500 --> 00:37:03,039
所以故事的核心在于

1179
00:37:03,039 --> 00:37:04,980
多年来表现极差

1180
00:37:04,980 --> 00:37:08,210
没错，现在也不算太差

1181
00:37:08,210 --> 00:37:12,670
此外半导体股正在吸走市场所有人气

1182
00:37:12,670 --> 00:37:13,369
短期来看

1183
00:37:13,369 --> 00:37:15,690
你根本无法关注其他

1184
00:37:15,690 --> 00:37:17,210
现在只能关注半导体股

1185
00:37:17,210 --> 00:37:20,929
这些股票日复一日持续上涨

1186
00:37:20,929 --> 00:37:25,610
它们正在吸走市场所有氧气

1187
00:37:25,610 --> 00:37:28,690
其他股票根本无法获得关注

1188
00:37:28,690 --> 00:37:30,849
除了像MU、AMD

1189
00:37:30,849 --> 00:37:31,469
闪迪

1190
00:37:31,469 --> 00:37:32,010
漫威

1191
00:37:32,010 --> 00:37:32,809
德州仪器

1192
00:37:32,809 --> 00:37:33,929
这类股票

1193
00:37:33,929 --> 00:37:35,750
它们占据一切

1194
00:37:35,750 --> 00:37:37,289
下一个爆发点在哪

1195
00:37:37,289 --> 00:37:38,190
下一轮上涨

1196
00:37:38,190 --> 00:37:41,829
女士们先生们，下一轮将在消费非必需品领域

1197
00:37:41,829 --> 00:37:43,989
当市场走出当前困境后

1198
00:37:43,989 --> 00:37:47,070
你将看到这些股票爆发

1199
00:37:47,070 --> 00:37:48,050
那么是什么类型的股票

1200
00:37:48,050 --> 00:37:48,630
让我展示给你看

1201
00:37:48,630 --> 00:37:52,630
某些 Celsius 持有股下跌三十六年

1202
00:37:53,829 --> 00:37:54,980
准备好迎接一波上涨

1203
00:37:54,980 --> 00:37:57,679
Revolve 股价三十六年累计下跌

1204
00:37:57,679 --> 00:37:59,019
准备好迎接一波上涨

1205
00:37:59,019 --> 00:38:02,840
Elf 美容股下跌二十九年

1206
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,320
这些股票即将迎来的上涨行情

1207
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:05,639
必须得守住我的仓位

1208
00:38:05,639 --> 00:38:07,420
不会只是几周或几个月

1209
00:38:07,420 --> 00:38:09,800
将持续十八到二十四个月

1210
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:15,119
这些股票的疯狂上涨势不可挡

1211
00:38:15,119 --> 00:38:15,940
它们就像

1212
00:38:15,940 --> 00:38:18,039
必需消费品板块

1213
00:38:18,039 --> 00:38:18,460
没错

1214
00:38:18,460 --> 00:38:20,510
当它们下跌十八个百分点

1215
00:38:20,510 --> 00:38:22,349
年至今的表现你知道的

1216
00:38:22,349 --> 00:38:25,340
现在要布局这些股票

1217
00:38:25,340 --> 00:38:27,679
在下一波上涨前

1218
00:38:27,679 --> 00:38:29,820
宁愿早些入场

1219
00:38:29,820 --> 00:38:31,099
这始终是我的策略

1220
00:38:31,099 --> 00:38:31,500
没错

1221
00:38:31,500 --> 00:38:33,159
当我大量买入 AMD 时

1222
00:38:33,159 --> 00:38:35,550
起初人们都在质疑

1223
00:38:35,550 --> 00:38:37,789
AMD 股价多年表现糟糕

1224
00:38:37,789 --> 00:38:39,789
你知道为什么我要布局这个

1225
00:38:39,789 --> 00:38:41,050
我会让你看到的

1226
00:38:41,050 --> 00:38:46,628
我稍微早了一点，随后在 AMD 上赚了几百万

1227
00:38:46,628 --> 00:38:47,548
确实早了一点

1228
00:38:47,548 --> 00:38:49,250
我在特斯拉上也早了点

1229
00:38:49,250 --> 00:38:51,349
随后特斯拉上涨两百倍

1230
00:38:51,349 --> 00:38:52,869
我在 Palantir 上提前布局

1231
00:38:52,869 --> 00:38:55,150
我没有等到最低点买入

1232
00:38:55,150 --> 00:38:55,829
你知道的

1233
00:38:55,829 --> 00:38:57,230
我认为当我开始买入 Palantir 时

1234
00:38:57,230 --> 00:38:58,150
可能在十二美元价位

1235
00:38:58,150 --> 00:39:02,250
十四美元时买入了十万股

1236
00:39:02,250 --> 00:39:03,630
技术底部在五美元左右

1237
00:39:03,630 --> 00:39:05,750
Palantir 买入时机稍早

1238
00:39:05,750 --> 00:39:08,550
但 Palantir 表现不错，涨幅两百倍

1239
00:39:08,550 --> 00:39:12,619
同样在 Meta 上，我开始买入时约三百美元

1240
00:39:12,619 --> 00:39:14,559
股价下跌到两百时继续加仓

1241
00:39:14,559 --> 00:39:17,920
跌至一百时大幅买入八十八美元

1242
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:18,639
九十四美元

1243
00:39:18,639 --> 00:39:20,778
九十三美元时大举买入

1244
00:39:21,219 --> 00:39:22,878
我们在 Meta 上稍早入场

1245
00:39:22,878 --> 00:39:25,579
但该股表现不错，收益良好

1246
00:39:25,579 --> 00:39:27,458
现在布局这些股票

1247
00:39:27,458 --> 00:39:28,639
我可能入场较早

1248
00:39:28,639 --> 00:39:29,860
这对我来说没问题

1249
00:39:29,860 --> 00:39:30,739
我不在乎

1250
00:39:30,739 --> 00:39:32,219
就算我稍微早一点也没关系

1251
00:39:32,219 --> 00:39:33,159
我只是想确认一下

1252
00:39:33,159 --> 00:39:36,289
我已经准备好了要开始跑了，我不想迟到

1253
00:39:36,289 --> 00:39:37,510
因为当它启动时

1254
00:39:37,510 --> 00:39:40,010
将会非常疯狂

1255
00:39:40,010 --> 00:39:41,010
耐克

1256
00:39:41,010 --> 00:39:44,088
又有三分之一的股票今年以来下跌

1257
00:39:44,088 --> 00:39:45,369
这次的行情将会非常疯狂

1258
00:39:45,369 --> 00:39:47,949
Shopify下跌3.5%，今年以来表现不佳

1259
00:39:47,949 --> 00:39:49,608
这次的行情将会非常疯狂

1260
00:39:49,608 --> 00:39:50,329
PayPal

1261
00:39:50,329 --> 00:39:53,188
这又是被归类到消费类股票中的一个

1262
00:39:53,188 --> 00:39:55,309
就像PayPal和Venmo一样

1263
00:39:55,309 --> 00:39:56,789
下跌2.5%，今年以来表现疲软

1264
00:39:56,789 --> 00:39:57,969
这次的行情会非常疯狂

1265
00:39:57,969 --> 00:40:00,349
万丽度假村下跌18.5%

1266
00:40:00,349 --> 00:40:04,269
周五晚上那家店一直很忙

1267
00:40:05,309 --> 00:40:05,510
哦

1268
00:40:05,510 --> 00:40:06,710
现在人多吗

1269
00:40:08,900 --> 00:40:10,320
我有几个故事要讲

1270
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,219
我不能告诉你这些故事

1271
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:19,460
但可以说那里的钱花得有点蠢

1272
00:40:19,460 --> 00:40:20,139
好的

1273
00:40:20,139 --> 00:40:23,920
明年 hype 高潮时要小心

1274
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,780
随着明年中东项目开业临近

1275
00:40:26,780 --> 00:40:30,170
注意关注美国运通相关动态

1276
00:40:30,170 --> 00:40:31,929
这也被归类到消费类股票中

1277
00:40:31,929 --> 00:40:34,179
今天已下跌16%

1278
00:40:34,179 --> 00:40:35,179
等待行情启动

1279
00:40:35,179 --> 00:40:36,059
美国运通

1280
00:40:36,059 --> 00:40:36,539
说实话

1281
00:40:36,539 --> 00:40:38,500
这其实逆势而行

1282
00:40:38,500 --> 00:40:41,639
可能更适合归类为必需消费品

1283
00:40:41,639 --> 00:40:43,159
尽管他们的产品定位高端

1284
00:40:43,159 --> 00:40:43,400
所以

1285
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,039
我几乎可以主张

1286
00:40:45,039 --> 00:40:47,949
它们应更偏向可选消费品

1287
00:40:47,949 --> 00:40:49,150
但这家涨幅36%

1288
00:40:49,150 --> 00:40:50,389
今年以来上涨36%

1289
00:40:50,389 --> 00:40:51,568
正在独立行情中运行

1290
00:40:51,568 --> 00:40:53,248
我认为今年股价会表现不错

1291
00:40:53,248 --> 00:40:54,528
超过5美元一股

1292
00:40:54,528 --> 00:40:55,489
这是我的个人观点

1293
00:40:55,489 --> 00:40:56,409
关于这一点

1294
00:40:56,409 --> 00:40:57,409
所以继续持有

1295
00:40:57,409 --> 00:40:58,278
而且

1296
00:40:58,599 --> 00:40:59,139
你知道的

1297
00:40:59,139 --> 00:41:00,159
服务现在属于Salesforce

1298
00:41:00,159 --> 00:41:01,079
我还在努力理清

1299
00:41:01,079 --> 00:41:04,039
如果这些公司要与消费 discretionary 领域同行

1300
00:41:04,039 --> 00:41:05,599
我不知道

1301
00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:06,880
因为我的观点是

1302
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,179
这类公司必须开始展示

1303
00:41:09,179 --> 00:41:11,610
他们必须给出早期信号

1304
00:41:11,610 --> 00:41:14,869
不仅在代理人和他们的业务方面实现收入增长

1305
00:41:14,869 --> 00:41:15,349
业务的另一面

1306
00:41:15,349 --> 00:41:18,039
但他们必须证明利润率会保持稳定

1307
00:41:18,039 --> 00:41:21,500
可能需要几个季度才能显现

1308
00:41:21,500 --> 00:41:23,699
这可能需要一年时间才能证明

1309
00:41:23,699 --> 00:41:24,079
所以

1310
00:41:24,079 --> 00:41:24,760
我不确定

1311
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,119
当消费 discretionary 领域启动时

1312
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:29,519
SaaS 股票是否准备好参与这一波行情

1313
00:41:29,519 --> 00:41:31,710
我认为这是值得商榷的

1314
00:41:31,710 --> 00:41:33,369
这就是我对这个问题的看法

1315
00:41:34,409 --> 00:41:35,349
女士们先生们

1316
00:41:35,349 --> 00:41:36,650
关注长期发展

1317
00:41:36,650 --> 00:41:38,409
你们面前有绝佳的投资机会

1318
00:41:38,409 --> 00:41:39,000
你们会

1319
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:40,159
你们需要

1320
00:41:40,159 --> 00:41:40,280
但

1321
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:41,039
正如我常说的

1322
00:41:41,039 --> 00:41:41,880
构建投资组合

1323
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:43,619
多年后你会为之自豪

1324
00:41:43,619 --> 00:41:44,940
而不仅仅是现在

1325
00:41:44,940 --> 00:41:45,900
或未来六个月

1326
00:41:45,900 --> 00:41:47,710
或追逐热门股票

1327
00:41:47,710 --> 00:41:48,389
构建投资组合

1328
00:41:48,389 --> 00:41:49,610
多年后你会为之自豪

1329
00:41:49,610 --> 00:41:50,230
对

1330
00:41:50,230 --> 00:41:52,010
我投资组合中的公司

1331
00:41:52,010 --> 00:41:53,030
这些将是优质企业

1332
00:41:53,030 --> 00:41:55,369
我相信未来多年都会表现优异

1333
00:41:55,369 --> 00:41:57,250
不仅未来三个月

1334
00:41:57,250 --> 00:41:58,570
不仅未来六个月

1335
00:41:58,570 --> 00:41:59,119
好的

1336
00:41:59,119 --> 00:42:00,699
女士们先生们关注长期

1337
00:42:00,699 --> 00:42:01,039
好的

1338
00:42:01,039 --> 00:42:02,559
如果你想应用你的实践小组

1339
00:42:02,559 --> 00:42:03,639
想提升你的投资水平

1340
00:42:03,639 --> 00:42:05,320
远超当前的知识水平

1341
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:06,159
所有这些你想要的东西

1342
00:42:06,159 --> 00:42:07,590
获取所有课程大纲

1343
00:42:07,590 --> 00:42:08,230
Discord

1344
00:42:08,230 --> 00:42:08,510
聊天室

1345
00:42:08,510 --> 00:42:09,590
专属每周视频

1346
00:42:09,590 --> 00:42:10,530
我亲自教你一切

1347
00:42:10,530 --> 00:42:11,349
我站到这里

1348
00:42:11,349 --> 00:42:12,590
助你达到高水准

1349
00:42:12,590 --> 00:42:14,650
快进去和六七八位成员一起

1350
00:42:14,650 --> 00:42:15,289
对的

1351
00:42:15,289 --> 00:42:16,250
呃

1352
00:42:16,250 --> 00:42:17,969
尽快申请，这会被优先处理

1353
00:42:17,969 --> 00:42:18,409
在下方评论

1354
00:42:18,409 --> 00:42:21,650
我六月将继续向新成员关闭

1355
00:42:21,650 --> 00:42:23,380
祝好，度过美好一天

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