BV1aywszjE63 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:10,839 --> 00:00:11,880 欢迎最新杂牌组合 2 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:12,519 完整积分榜 3 00:00:12,519 --> 00:00:13,480 我正追踪气球 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,878 我们有长期的傻瓜 5 00:00:14,878 --> 00:00:16,618 杰森·霍尔和马特·弗兰克尔 6 00:00:16,618 --> 00:00:20,798 给一家得8.2分的公司打1到10分评级 7 00:00:20,798 --> 00:00:22,338 这是我们第一次这样做 8 00:00:22,338 --> 00:00:26,419 自从我被迫在2024年回购以来，它表现相当不错 9 00:00:26,419 --> 00:00:29,530 这是马特长期看好的股票 10 00:00:29,530 --> 00:00:30,750 正如你将看到的 11 00:00:30,750 --> 00:00:32,090 这是通用汽车 12 00:00:32,090 --> 00:00:32,890 GM股票代码 13 00:00:32,890 --> 00:00:33,090 简单来说 14 00:00:33,090 --> 00:00:36,490 我们将首先评估通用汽车业务的实力 15 00:00:36,490 --> 00:00:38,630 包括行业和竞争因素 16 00:00:38,630 --> 00:00:40,030 十分意味着无敌 17 00:00:40,030 --> 00:00:41,598 一分意味着无望 18 00:00:41,598 --> 00:00:42,960 马特给了9分 19 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:44,340 杰森给了6分 20 00:00:44,340 --> 00:00:46,079 这将在节目中反复出现 21 00:00:46,079 --> 00:00:47,079 你无需担心 22 00:00:47,079 --> 00:00:48,840 需要在此购买更多通用汽车股票 23 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,429 因为我认为 24 00:00:51,429 --> 00:00:53,869 马特和我现在可能是分歧最大的 25 00:00:53,869 --> 00:00:55,350 如果按曲线评分 26 00:00:55,350 --> 00:00:56,420 基于行业因素 27 00:00:56,420 --> 00:00:57,659 应为8.5分以上 28 00:00:57,659 --> 00:01:00,079 但这是残酷竞争的行业 29 00:01:00,079 --> 00:01:01,609 利润率微薄 30 00:01:01,609 --> 00:01:05,450 资本需求极高，顺便说一句 31 00:01:05,450 --> 00:01:06,930 它还具有强烈周期性 32 00:01:06,930 --> 00:01:07,750 我们可以查看财报 33 00:01:07,750 --> 00:01:10,310 我们刚公布的营收数据 34 00:01:10,310 --> 00:01:12,950 应对电动车转型的下降成本 35 00:01:14,069 --> 00:01:16,409 通用汽车已损失数十亿美元 36 00:01:16,409 --> 00:01:19,049 及其所有传统竞争对手 37 00:01:19,049 --> 00:01:22,189 都在预测未来需求 38 00:01:23,900 --> 00:01:28,640 决定退出Rox出租车业务 39 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,700 我认为这削弱了 40 00:01:31,700 --> 00:01:37,929 这说明行业领导者可能因倒退迅速失去地位 41 00:01:37,929 --> 00:01:40,810 这在汽车行业很常见 42 00:01:41,049 --> 00:01:42,049 所以我给了9分 43 00:01:42,049 --> 00:01:42,650 正如你所说 44 00:01:42,650 --> 00:01:43,489 首先在 45 00:01:43,489 --> 00:01:45,439 感谢让我促使你买入股票 46 00:01:45,484 --> 00:01:46,439 杰森 47 00:01:46,439 --> 00:01:47,019 谢谢 48 00:01:47,019 --> 00:01:47,620 是的 49 00:01:47,620 --> 00:01:51,780 杰森关于行业竞争和利润率的分析很正确 50 00:01:51,780 --> 00:01:53,260 但通用汽车值得高分 51 00:01:53,260 --> 00:01:53,879 总之 52 00:01:53,879 --> 00:01:55,980 总销量位居第一 53 00:01:55,980 --> 00:01:56,239 U 54 00:01:56,239 --> 00:01:57,099 S汽车销量 55 00:01:57,099 --> 00:01:59,000 纯电车型销量稳居第二 56 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:00,019 而且这是新的 57 00:02:00,019 --> 00:02:01,700 这些增长非常迅速 58 00:02:01,700 --> 00:02:06,299 尽管汽车行业竞争远比几年前激烈得多 59 00:02:06,299 --> 00:02:07,180 随着众多新品牌加入 60 00:02:07,180 --> 00:02:10,520 比如Rivian等新势力和通用软件业务 61 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:11,939 包括OnStar等服务 62 00:02:11,939 --> 00:02:16,870 Super Cruise及其他订阅产品增长迅猛 63 00:02:16,870 --> 00:02:17,389 今年预计增长五 64 00:02:17,389 --> 00:02:19,610 同比增长四个百分点 65 00:02:19,610 --> 00:02:22,650 这是快速成长的高毛利收入来源 66 00:02:22,650 --> 00:02:25,669 能逐步缓解杰森的利润率担忧 67 00:02:25,669 --> 00:02:28,310 我赞赏退出该业务的决策 68 00:02:28,310 --> 00:02:31,050 这项每年耗费数十亿美元的出租车业务 69 00:02:31,050 --> 00:02:32,909 同时保留Cruise技术 70 00:02:32,909 --> 00:02:38,289 作为超级巡航车辆车主，我不得不说这非常出色 71 00:02:39,699 --> 00:02:40,780 没错，管理层 72 00:02:40,780 --> 00:02:42,419 十分是沃伦·巴菲特 73 00:02:42,419 --> 00:02:43,520 一分是霍默 74 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,379 马特评九分 75 00:02:45,379 --> 00:02:46,810 杰森得八分 76 00:02:46,810 --> 00:02:47,409 是的 77 00:02:47,409 --> 00:02:49,729 玛丽·巴拉在通用的表现非常出色 78 00:02:49,729 --> 00:02:52,430 她在CEO职位前已任职更久 79 00:02:52,430 --> 00:02:57,330 在担任CEO约十二年间 80 00:02:57,330 --> 00:03:01,759 需要记住股票表现落后大盘 81 00:03:01,759 --> 00:03:04,800 马特将讨论现实情况 82 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,909 她接手了严峻局面 83 00:03:06,909 --> 00:03:09,569 必须彻底扭转业务 84 00:03:10,569 --> 00:03:13,780 我不是在批评巴拉 85 00:03:13,780 --> 00:03:16,139 她做得极其出色 86 00:03:16,139 --> 00:03:21,189 我要强调行业之难并给予应有认可 87 00:03:21,189 --> 00:03:24,629 这比其他传统车企更具投资价值 88 00:03:24,629 --> 00:03:27,139 这标准太低了各位 89 00:03:27,300 --> 00:03:27,659 是的 90 00:03:27,659 --> 00:03:29,819 我认为我们在这件事上高度一致 91 00:03:29,819 --> 00:03:32,740 我喜欢从基层做起的CEO 92 00:03:32,740 --> 00:03:33,340 玛丽·巴拉就是这样 93 00:03:33,340 --> 00:03:35,860 她三十多年前开始实习 94 00:03:35,860 --> 00:03:36,419 嗯 95 00:03:36,419 --> 00:03:38,490 她是我最欣赏的CEO之一 96 00:03:38,490 --> 00:03:40,009 杰森说的没错 97 00:03:40,009 --> 00:03:42,449 她上任后股票仍落后市场 98 00:03:42,449 --> 00:03:46,389 她接手了金融危机后的烂摊子 99 00:03:46,389 --> 00:03:48,430 汽车制造商沦为笑柄 100 00:03:48,430 --> 00:03:50,789 那时情况真的非常糟糕 101 00:03:50,789 --> 00:03:54,209 人们需要一段时间才能从通用破产中恢复过来 102 00:03:54,968 --> 00:03:56,449 不仅财务状况糟糕 103 00:03:56,449 --> 00:03:58,209 而且产品质量实在差劲 104 00:03:58,209 --> 00:04:02,650 美国汽车以前在可靠性话题中常被当作笑柄 105 00:04:02,650 --> 00:04:05,530 她成功将其打造成了行业领导者 106 00:04:05,530 --> 00:04:07,930 市场似乎终于开始认清 107 00:04:07,930 --> 00:04:12,134 通用的价值略高于单位数市盈率 108 00:04:13,539 --> 00:04:14,659 在财务方面 109 00:04:14,659 --> 00:04:16,120 十分代表稳固 110 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:17,399 一分令人担忧 111 00:04:17,399 --> 00:04:18,418 马特评分为八分 112 00:04:18,418 --> 00:04:19,418 杰森评分为七分 113 00:04:19,418 --> 00:04:19,759 是的 114 00:04:19,759 --> 00:04:21,999 如果只看资产负债表 115 00:04:21,999 --> 00:04:24,079 不考虑具体背景 116 00:04:24,079 --> 00:04:26,069 可能会认为情况恶化了 117 00:04:26,069 --> 00:04:27,110 并非如此 118 00:04:27,110 --> 00:04:29,879 债务增长几乎直接关联 119 00:04:29,879 --> 00:04:31,360 与其贷款业务增长 120 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,060 并非汽车业务新增债务 121 00:04:33,060 --> 00:04:35,459 他们向购车者提供贷款 122 00:04:35,459 --> 00:04:37,209 公司现金储备充足 123 00:04:37,810 --> 00:04:41,069 基本维持了大额现金余额 124 00:04:41,069 --> 00:04:43,050 还有额外信贷额度可用 125 00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:44,990 流动性不是问题 126 00:04:44,990 --> 00:04:45,589 嗯 127 00:04:45,589 --> 00:04:48,550 但将持续面临重大资本支出 128 00:04:48,550 --> 00:04:51,160 需要在 evolving 行业竞争 129 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:51,959 汽车行业 130 00:04:51,959 --> 00:04:56,889 部分支出如我们所见未必能如期见效 131 00:04:56,889 --> 00:04:59,889 未达到马特提到的预期效果 132 00:04:59,889 --> 00:05:02,829 在美国电动车销量位居第二 133 00:05:02,829 --> 00:05:03,949 听起来不错 134 00:05:03,949 --> 00:05:07,250 但账面上仍遭受重大损失 135 00:05:07,250 --> 00:05:10,879 因资本投入未能快速见效 136 00:05:10,879 --> 00:05:11,300 所以 137 00:05:11,300 --> 00:05:12,420 基于这些因素 138 00:05:12,420 --> 00:05:15,579 当前现金流状况尚可 139 00:05:18,199 --> 00:05:19,860 届时冲击会更严重 140 00:05:19,860 --> 00:05:21,639 所以我无法给出高于七分 141 00:05:21,639 --> 00:05:23,939 但马特可以给八分吗 142 00:05:23,939 --> 00:05:25,420 我实在无法再提高评分 143 00:05:25,420 --> 00:05:28,040 因汽车行业周期性特征 144 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:28,660 是的 145 00:05:28,660 --> 00:05:30,879 财务灵活性极佳 146 00:05:30,879 --> 00:05:32,480 在正确领域快速扩张 147 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:37,610 我提到软件业务年均产生十亿美元自由现金流 148 00:05:37,610 --> 00:05:38,430 五点 149 00:05:38,430 --> 00:05:39,850 7%的自由现金流利润率 150 00:05:39,850 --> 00:05:42,029 这对汽车制造商来说很强劲 151 00:05:42,029 --> 00:05:46,389 但软件业务增长和电动车正迅速走向盈利 152 00:05:46,389 --> 00:05:48,170 随着电池技术的提升 153 00:05:48,170 --> 00:05:51,168 未来几年将显著扩张 154 00:05:51,168 --> 00:05:52,488 超过近两 155 00:05:52,488 --> 00:05:55,339 资产负债表上有20亿美元现金及证券 156 00:05:55,339 --> 00:05:56,699 大规模股票回购 157 00:05:56,699 --> 00:06:01,019 自2022年以来已减少近三分之一的流通股 158 00:06:01,019 --> 00:06:02,540 并推出增长型股息 159 00:06:02,540 --> 00:06:06,470 我从财务角度挺看好这个 160 00:06:06,470 --> 00:06:06,829 马特，嗯 161 00:06:06,829 --> 00:06:07,810 现在谈谈估值 162 00:06:10,050 --> 00:06:11,730 这相对安全但可能短期波动 163 00:06:11,730 --> 00:06:12,750 一个是彩票 164 00:06:12,750 --> 00:06:13,069 好的 165 00:06:13,069 --> 00:06:14,850 现在战斗正式打响 166 00:06:14,850 --> 00:06:16,990 我最近写了一篇文章 167 00:06:16,990 --> 00:06:20,370 预测通用汽车五年内股价将达200美元 168 00:06:20,370 --> 00:06:21,560 这就是答案 169 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:22,920 我预测15美元 170 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,279 安全评分七 171 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:31,339 新的回购授权意味着今年将减少8%的流通股 172 00:06:31,339 --> 00:06:36,209 只要保持盈利增长，电动车将推动利润率持续扩张 173 00:06:36,209 --> 00:06:38,009 盈利能力与软件增长 174 00:06:38,009 --> 00:06:39,670 低利率环境 175 00:06:39,670 --> 00:06:42,670 别忘了特朗普的1万美元 176 00:06:42,670 --> 00:06:43,189 呃 177 00:06:43,189 --> 00:06:46,439 新车贷款利息税收抵免政策 178 00:06:46,439 --> 00:06:49,560 可能为汽车行业创造良好增长环境 179 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,009 尤其是通用汽车 180 00:06:51,009 --> 00:06:53,410 还有一些我喜欢的股票 181 00:06:53,410 --> 00:06:56,408 我认为风险收益比优于通用汽车 182 00:06:56,408 --> 00:06:56,829 是的 183 00:06:56,829 --> 00:06:57,889 我的安全评分七 184 00:06:57,889 --> 00:07:02,449 我认为仍然相对安全 185 00:07:02,449 --> 00:07:04,990 在玛丽·巴拉的带领下并持续改进 186 00:07:04,990 --> 00:07:07,170 但核心差异在于回报特征 187 00:07:07,170 --> 00:07:08,980 我预计5%到10% 188 00:07:08,980 --> 00:07:11,740 享受了这段强劲上涨行情 189 00:07:11,740 --> 00:07:13,839 以及市盈率提升 190 00:07:13,839 --> 00:07:15,259 并非单纯财务改善 191 00:07:15,259 --> 00:07:15,699 我同意 192 00:07:15,699 --> 00:07:17,259 当股价处于个位数市盈率时 193 00:07:17,259 --> 00:07:18,360 市盈率水平 194 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,339 当时更有吸引力 195 00:07:20,339 --> 00:07:23,920 但从当前估值来看 196 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:25,019 回报将更合理 197 00:07:25,019 --> 00:07:28,949 与中长期结果大致一致 198 00:07:28,949 --> 00:07:29,629 我感到惊讶 199 00:07:29,629 --> 00:07:33,110 如果我们获得双位数年化总回报 200 00:07:33,110 --> 00:07:33,569 是的 201 00:07:33,569 --> 00:07:34,949 股票回购将有所帮助 202 00:07:34,949 --> 00:07:36,970 但汽车制造商是价格接受者 203 00:07:36,970 --> 00:07:39,310 以及你提到的所有因素 204 00:07:39,310 --> 00:07:41,759 其他人都在使用更便宜的电池 205 00:07:41,759 --> 00:07:42,620 生产更便宜的汽车 206 00:07:42,620 --> 00:07:44,300 不一定是更好的利润率 207 00:07:44,300 --> 00:07:47,259 我并不完全相信利润会以人们认为的方式增长 208 00:07:47,259 --> 00:07:49,009 许多人似乎认为的那样 209 00:07:49,009 --> 00:07:51,209 感谢jason和matt 210 00:07:51,209 --> 00:07:52,050 他们给了通用汽车 211 00:07:54,050 --> 00:07:57,709 马特给出6分，明显比jason更乐观 212 00:07:57,709 --> 00:07:59,490 杰森没有给出最高评级 213 00:07:59,490 --> 00:08:01,810 因为他认为这是一个平庸的行业 214 00:08:01,810 --> 00:08:05,050 与此同时，通用汽车是马特最大的持仓 215 00:08:06,129 --> 00:08:07,649 并认为杰森的观点有误 216 00:08:07,649 --> 00:08:09,069 留意新的评分板 217 00:08:09,069 --> 00:08:10,490 每个交易日七点 218 00:08:10,490 --> 00:08:11,129 东部时间 219 00:08:11,129 --> 00:08:13,790 接下来是一家从通用汽车分拆出来的公司 220 00:08:13,790 --> 00:08:14,050 哦 221 00:08:14,050 --> 00:08:14,850 已经很久以前了 222 00:08:14,850 --> 00:08:18,060 在此之前是全名金融
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