通货膨胀利好白酒

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小博好

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最近这两年美国的烈酒品牌的股价暴跌

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比如低亚迪欧百部门的轨道腰斩了

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你知道为什么通货膨胀

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反而烈酒的这种销量下滑吗

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你知道为什么吗

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因为年轻人不喝酒嘛

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而且是喝酒会增肥

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喝酒会增肥

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年轻人减肥都吃了减肥药对

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还有什么原因啊

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因为他们嫌太太难喝了啊

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太难喝

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不喜欢喝了

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都喜欢抽去了

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不喝酒了

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实际上我跟你讲原因有几个

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第一个就是减肥是个原因啊

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就他们现在开始这个吃了

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吃了减肥药也不能喝酒

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喝烈酒嘛是吧

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呃其实还有个很多原因是什么

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就是他们这个酒商啊就库存太大了

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就前两年压货

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然后呢负债率太高

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但这两年呢因为借款成本太高了

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借款商不压货

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都开始出库存了

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所以你看这个百富门的波本威士忌

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下滑很严重啊

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帝亚吉欧的这个美国本土下滑很严重

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然后还有呢迪亚吉欧啊

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他这个呃欧美市场就是南美市场

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南美市场那个呃朗姆酒啊

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伏特加啊下滑也很严重

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对然后你知道白酒啊会不会受唾沫们的影响

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会为啥呢

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因为人现在不仅不喝白酒

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然后他就喜欢没人买

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他就突破屏障了

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但是我觉得你这个结论啊有可能是反的

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为什么这个你看啊

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美国烈酒它下滑的原因是

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因为他们打终端这部分人群啊

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这部分人群呢他没有社交的或者说关系需求

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他不用喝白酒也能做生意是吧

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他不用喝白酒

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他不用喝烈酒

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他也可以把事谈成

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而且呢它的价格都很便宜

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本来就是三四十四

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五十五十块钱都属于高端的烈酒了

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在中国不是中国的话

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比如说茅五卢都上千

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比茅台一瓶子1500

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他这个高端酒呢它越涨价

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它越有面子属性

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但是美国它不需要面子呀

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你看这些烈酒是吧

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都是几十块钱对吧

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还他他哦

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是不是这个就属于最高端的酒

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对啊

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这都是高端酒了呀

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你看48啊

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这都是20多30多

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你20多30多锁在柜子里面

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你看啊锁在柜子里面都是高端酒

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这说明什么呢

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说明欧美的消费者呢

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他对这种呃面子属性

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金融属性不是不看重

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它主要是什么属性啊

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就是渔业属性对吧

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那中国的这些烈酒呢

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你看他有什么特点

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高人高端的是吧

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高端人群

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但是高端人群这部分人

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你的他收入下滑了吗

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没有没有下滑

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这两年呢因为通货膨胀

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他们的收收入还增长了

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所以呢我给你讲个逻辑是什么呢

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就是第一白酒的毛利都90%多茅台啊

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但是呢你说这些烈酒它的它卖价才20多

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还能百分50多吗

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它的毛利30%

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对不对

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那第二个呢茅台呢它的成本

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比如说你像粮食啊

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像这个包装啊

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像瓶子这胡萝不计啊

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比如说茅台茅台卖1500

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你看他成本多少钱吗

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不知道他一个瓶子呢不到十块钱

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都三五块钱对吧

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然后粮食呢也是十几20块钱

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我知道了

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然后呢他加起来九对酒的话

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成本不到100块

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是那水对水啊

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水可以忽略不计

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水的出门可以忽略

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而是那个里面那个喝的那个水啊

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你的酒精啊

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他这个蒸馏过程呢它确确实实不便宜

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就是它实际它的成本不到100块

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他卖1500

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是不是它毛利95%啊

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所以呢实际上你说通货膨胀对他的有影响吗

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没有对呀

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它可以消化掉

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你知道通货膨胀对哪些酒有影响

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对烈酒对对低客单有影响

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你看低客单他总共才卖20块钱

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他问一个瓶子

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他就去掉一半对吧

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它实际上它主要是平直瓶子涨价了

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他利润减少了

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比如说比如他22

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然后呢他的瓶子十块钱

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如果瓶子涨了涨两块呢

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他说他利润少了12%

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但是茅台卖1500

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平均涨一块钱

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这有影响吗

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没有没有任何影响

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所以说这就是通货膨胀呢

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对头部的高端的就没有影响

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因为它可以不涨价

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但是低端的呢必须涨价

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所以低端卖不动

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是不是高端的就受益了

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而且有钱人没有盐少的情况下

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少喝酒

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喝好酒

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这个情况下是不是对高端酒也会利好呀

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还有最后一条是什么

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你的白酒啊

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比如茅台五粮液老窖

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它随着通货膨胀来

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它会不会有这种保值属性

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对呀它有保值属性

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它可以抗通胀

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所以我觉得今年的高端烈酒一定利好你

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你你你认为呢我也认为没错

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那等着拭目以待

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好不好好

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