【视野环球财经】20260506美股 NVDA热身，别嫌少！MU、SNDK高吗？谁在买？三种走势判断！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年5月6号

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周三晚上的08:35分呃

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不好意思

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今天又搞晚了啊

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但是虽晚仍到

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避免大家预期落空啊

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好咱们说行情呃

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那么今天呢

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美伊是在结束战争方面取得了新的进展

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那么两国呢很可能即将就一份旨在结束战争的

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单页备忘录达成一致啊

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这个协议缩减了啊

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暂时呢大家先签个简单的备忘录啊

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一页纸搞定

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上面写着停战俩字啊

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伊朗呢仍在制定应对方案

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尽管进展仍在进行中啊

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但是美国和巴基斯坦媒体的乐观情绪

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明显高于伊朗媒体

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另外呢总统川普表示说谈判进展顺利

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并暗示希望在下周访问中国之前达成协议

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所以大家今天看到呢受到利好消息的刺激啊

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美国的四大指数是再次的大幅上涨

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那么今天的这个涨幅呢和前几天不太一样哈

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今天的这个标普成份股里边

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有319只个股上涨

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183只下跌啊

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上涨的个股数量已经是明显超过下跌的

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另外标普的11个板块有九个上涨啊

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这个也是大部分都在涨

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对于经济比较敏感的道指

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里边都有22只上涨啊

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只有八只下跌啊

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所以今天呢是一个普涨格局

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另外还有一方面也能看出来

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目前呢中东这边的局势缓解

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大家还是往这个停战方面在压住啊

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就是布伦特原油是从110块钱左右啊

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回落到了100块

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今年最低的时候还曾经去到过97块钱

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呃

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市场呢看起来呢对于整体协议达成的信心呢

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还是比较的乐观

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今天咱们的节目呢呃

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咱们只看一个小的经济数据ADP

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然后主要和大家来讲一讲现在的流动性呃

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后面市场会怎么走啊

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包括大家比较关注的什么美光啊

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SNDK啊

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他们到底高不高

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到底是谁在买呃

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以及后面的大概我认为呢可能会有三种走法啊

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和大家讲一讲这个大的情况

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另外呢最后我还会再次总结一下

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现在的中东情况

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大家到底在压什么

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为什么股市走成这个样子啊

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是什么样一个进展好

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那咱们呢就看一下经济数据

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今天的这个ADP非常的不错啊

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ADP的4月份新增就业岗位是10.9万个

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高于预测的9.9

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也大幅高于前值的6.2

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工资方面

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留任者的年薪中位数增长了4.4%

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低于前值的4.5%

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跳槽者的年薪中位增长6.6%

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与前期持平啊

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仍旧是跳槽

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这边工资涨了多好

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数据讲完了

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那咱们呢接下来就讲一讲关键的问题

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什么关键问题呢

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就是现在市场的这个流动性啊

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包括今天有一个很明显的放量

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大家看到了吧

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嗯今天的这个市场的整体的流动性啊

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参与度啊是明显的改善

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标普500指数

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成份股的成交量和十天的平均量相比

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是上涨了21%啊

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这是一个很明显的放量

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另外呢从订单薄的账面的盘口的流动性

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目前是持续稳定在差不多

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一档呢是在1100万美元

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这个是高于年初至今的平均水平

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1030万啊

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说明呢现在出嫁的更多

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另外整体的活跃交易度和过去两周相比

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增长了31%

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那么和过去十天相比

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是增长了16%

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另外还有就是纳斯达克指数

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纳指啊

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现在在呃

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这个今天呢是创下了5年来最大的资金流入啊

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这就是大家疯狂的在买QQ

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所以大家就看到情况就变了啊

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整个的情况已经是这个formal情绪起来了啊

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不仅是传统的科技股起来了啊

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其他的这个周期股趴在地上的

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看上去他们也想起来啊

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暂时呢只是翻了个身啊

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起不起得来

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那要看后边有没有人再踹上一脚好

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那么说到这里呢就要说一下啊

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这个科技股整体的上涨势头很明显啊

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已经有点脱缰

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特别是半导体行业的上涨势头啊

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就是其中的半导体的涨幅已经是达到了2000年

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3月

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就是互联网泡沫以来的最高水平啊

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除了互联网泡沫没有超过他们的那个涨幅

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已经是26年来的新高啊

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这个涨幅

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那么问题就来了

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涨的是什么啊

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怎么涨的两个字投机

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大家看一下这张图表

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半导体行业的投机性的

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看涨期权的交易异常活跃啊

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其中三只个股就是在这张图表上

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最上方的三只个股

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美光英特尔和SNDK

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他们的看涨期权的交易量居然超过了s spy

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大家疯狂吧

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非常的疯狂

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对不对

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这个很清楚啊

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看这个图你就知道市场当前在干什么啊

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英伟达没有超过啊

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英伟达呃这个没有大幅超过啊

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因为他是持续在属于大权重嘛

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它和标普一般的情况都差不多啊

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所以呢主要是这三支美光

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英特尔和SNDK大幅超出了s spy啊

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好那很明确这三只股票已经被投机资金占领

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那剩下的问题就是什么时候投机会结束呢

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呃之前呢呃在咱们这个呃这个评论区呢

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有一个朋友呢是问了个很有趣的问题啊

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他是说呃我在讲这个标普

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标普标普的上涨广度不好的时候啊

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说是只有少数的个股带飞指数

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对不对

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呃

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他的问题是有没有可能广度不好

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才是标普的常态啊

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比如之前不是有七大权重啊

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现在又有这个存储

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那么我的答案是否定的啊

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咱们还是拿一些数据来说话

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其实啊现在费城半导体指数

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它里边的一些股票不是也是这个呃

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标普500指数的成份股吗

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半导体的这个市值的飙升啊

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目前他们在重叠的部分中

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已经是占到了标普500指数成份股的

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这个权重的22%啊

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已经是22

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因为标普那边是按照市值权重来分的嘛对吧

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所以呢他已经占到了22之多

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而在一个多月之前

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也就是4月份这个低点还没有启动的时候

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占比多少呢

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那个比例只有6%好

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那我们假设一下

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如果一直像这么涨下去

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继续保持这种增长速度

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也就是大家说的只涨不跌对吧

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那么到2027年

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这个比例会提升到80%

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也就是说那个时候啊标普的存在就没有意义了

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因为标普就等于费城半导体指数

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那么大家觉得这种事情会发生吗

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标普设立的初衷就是为了平衡市场啊

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他不是为了压一个单一板块

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那它有这个板块的指数

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它就没有必要去搞一个标普嘛对吧

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那除非未来要把标普的规则给改了啊

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所以这种情况呢我觉得不会发生啊

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因为历史上从来就没有发生过

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那么七大科技最高的时候

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也只占到了标普权重的40%左右

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那这里就有个有趣的问题了

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怎么样的走势才让这种极端的情况不发生呢

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我个人呢是认为大概有三种走势

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第一种最乐观的情况就是这一些疯狂的存储股

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它不大跌啊

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比方说小跌

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然后呢高位挺着其他的板块个股涨上来

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那么半导体的权重整体上就会下降

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因为其他的板块把它一分散

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市值一平衡

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它就没那么大了对吧

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那这种情况的后果是什么

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后果就是标普500指数

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它会脱离地心引力飞到月球去

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那么今年就可能会涨到什么八千八千五百点

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大家觉得这个概率高不高呢

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额我在3月7号的时候啊

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我还是拿数据给大家来说

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我在额我在3月7号的时候做过一个更新啊

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呃这个是5月31号的更新

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我记得我是肯定给大家展示过的

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然后呢我在3月7号的时候做过一个更新

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发布在会员节目里边

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我不记得后来有没有在公共视频给大家看过啊

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啊咱们不打紧啊

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咱们再重新看一遍

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其实26年现在的情况是什么

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大家看最最后的一排啊

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最后的两排就红字上面的那一排

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2027年那个数字6132~7494

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中卫6813

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目前我们现在的自然裂呃

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00:10:04,169 --> 00:10:06,580
自然力的时间是26年

221
00:10:06,580 --> 00:10:09,740
那么前瞻交易6~12个月

222
00:10:09,740 --> 00:10:13,909
也就是要去交易27年的前瞻业绩

223
00:10:13,909 --> 00:10:19,139
那么27年的前瞻是6132~7494

224
00:10:19,139 --> 00:10:23,399
基于18~22倍的标普的EPS测算

225
00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:24,559
也就是说呢

226
00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:28,000
标普是从6100点到7500点的

227
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:29,480
合理的波动范围啊

228
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,529
这是我在3月7号的一个更新

229
00:10:32,529 --> 00:10:36,629
那么预计在Q1的财报全部发布完之后啊

230
00:10:36,629 --> 00:10:39,960
根据当前的财报的调整趋势看

231
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,200
预计标普的EPS的业绩

232
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,039
在27年会上调一点点啊

233
00:10:45,039 --> 00:10:46,100
那在这个具体值

234
00:10:46,100 --> 00:10:49,460
我要等财报出完才知道为什么会上调

235
00:10:49,460 --> 00:10:51,200
他就说那能源价格高企

236
00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,089
不是很多的周期股业绩会下调吗

237
00:10:54,089 --> 00:10:55,469
是没有错

238
00:10:55,469 --> 00:11:01,100
但是由于半导体它们现在的上调幅度很大

239
00:11:01,100 --> 00:11:02,340
他们的上调啊

240
00:11:02,340 --> 00:11:04,889
这一次占到了标普差不多

241
00:11:04,889 --> 00:11:07,730
整个整体业绩的50%的EPS

242
00:11:07,730 --> 00:11:08,590
由他们来贡献

243
00:11:08,590 --> 00:11:10,779
所以他们往上调的更多

244
00:11:10,779 --> 00:11:14,059
抵消了那些往下调的那些影响啊

245
00:11:14,059 --> 00:11:18,470
这个才是我去判断它为什么会小幅上调的原因

246
00:11:18,470 --> 00:11:19,990
当然这个具体值啊

247
00:11:19,990 --> 00:11:22,240
我们要等财报出完之后才知道

248
00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,440
那我现在差不多随便假设一下啊

249
00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:25,580
因为具体值没看到

250
00:11:25,580 --> 00:11:29,950
我假设上限提高了100点到7600点

251
00:11:30,309 --> 00:11:36,729
那么市场标普如果继续上涨到8000啊

252
00:11:36,729 --> 00:11:37,889
你基于7600点

253
00:11:37,889 --> 00:11:38,408
你想一下

254
00:11:38,408 --> 00:11:39,349
如果在26年啊

255
00:11:39,349 --> 00:11:41,019
很快就涨到8000点

256
00:11:41,019 --> 00:11:45,659
那已经超出7600点上限5%左右

257
00:11:45,940 --> 00:11:48,600
这个呢就对于长期年化收益

258
00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,159
7%到9%的标普来讲

259
00:11:51,159 --> 00:11:54,379
他是一个非常大的超额收益

260
00:11:54,379 --> 00:11:57,039
你觉得有没有人会拿走

261
00:11:57,039 --> 00:12:00,879
还是会一路向上涨个不停

262
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,120
我个人觉得呢被拿走超额收益的概率更高

263
00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,759
因为历史走势就是这样

264
00:12:06,759 --> 00:12:07,440
涨超了

265
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,799
涨多了他就被人拿走了

266
00:12:09,799 --> 00:12:12,039
还有一个问题是因为涨多了之后呢

267
00:12:12,039 --> 00:12:13,200
原来少的时候

268
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,120
有人这个大部分人都觉得诶长得不够

269
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:17,000
我多拿一拿

270
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:18,879
涨高了以后恐高了嘛

271
00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:19,799
分歧就大了

272
00:12:19,799 --> 00:12:20,480
分歧一大

273
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,299
那你买盘力量自然就弱了呀

274
00:12:22,299 --> 00:12:23,789
那回撤的概率就大了

275
00:12:23,789 --> 00:12:27,789
所以分歧一大就意味着疯狂上涨的个股

276
00:12:27,789 --> 00:12:28,870
如果不跌

277
00:12:28,870 --> 00:12:31,490
其他个股也跟随大涨

278
00:12:31,490 --> 00:12:36,330
那这种标普就无限制上天的几率其实不高

279
00:12:36,330 --> 00:12:37,159
对不对

280
00:12:37,159 --> 00:12:40,000
我们去合理的去去去推测一下

281
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,620
你会觉得这种事情不太高好

282
00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:44,139
这是第一种情况

283
00:12:44,139 --> 00:12:47,779
那么第二种情况是什么呢

284
00:12:48,419 --> 00:12:54,259
第二种判断情况是额过于疯狂的上涨的个股啊

285
00:12:54,259 --> 00:12:56,509
他们的疯狂结束啊

286
00:12:56,509 --> 00:12:57,809
当然这个疯狂结束呢

287
00:12:57,809 --> 00:13:00,870
不一定是说他一定要暴跌个30%

288
00:13:00,870 --> 00:13:03,240
他可能呢小跌个10%啊

289
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:04,620
15%啊

290
00:13:04,620 --> 00:13:08,299
然后呢横着大家说10~15还叫小吗

291
00:13:08,299 --> 00:13:10,659
你跟他们的上涨幅度比起来

292
00:13:10,659 --> 00:13:11,659
那就不是个事嘛

293
00:13:11,659 --> 00:13:12,159
对不对

294
00:13:12,159 --> 00:13:15,509
所以他们也有可能就是我就慢慢的啊

295
00:13:15,509 --> 00:13:17,590
第二种情况我呢结束是结束

296
00:13:17,590 --> 00:13:19,669
然后呢我就跌一点

297
00:13:19,669 --> 00:13:21,339
在高位横着啊

298
00:13:21,339 --> 00:13:26,908
然后其他的绩优股没有怎么涨的多的啊

299
00:13:26,908 --> 00:13:29,328
开始呢缓慢的上涨

300
00:13:29,328 --> 00:13:30,589
涨涨跌跌

301
00:13:30,589 --> 00:13:32,188
然后不疯狂对吧

302
00:13:32,188 --> 00:13:33,589
这些多这些多跌一点

303
00:13:33,589 --> 00:13:35,450
然后那些呢少涨一点

304
00:13:35,450 --> 00:13:38,409
这样总体呢走一个慢牛的走势啊

305
00:13:38,409 --> 00:13:39,120
这样的情况

306
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,500
标普指数它才不会变成费城半导体指数嘛

307
00:13:42,500 --> 00:13:44,480
同时指数也会被压制住

308
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,759
避免扩快的快速上天好

309
00:13:47,759 --> 00:13:50,940
还有第三种就是最糟糕的情况

310
00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:52,960
中东战火重启

311
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,250
规模比之前更大

312
00:13:55,529 --> 00:13:58,529
过度投机市场大幅回撤啊

313
00:13:58,529 --> 00:14:01,090
比方说已经投机很高的大幅回撤

314
00:14:01,090 --> 00:14:05,470
同时刚刚翻了一个深的经济

315
00:14:05,470 --> 00:14:08,480
敏感的周期股继续下跌

316
00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,620
那后面这个基本预期就变了呀

317
00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:13,340
那就是另外一个炒作预期的故事了对吧

318
00:14:13,340 --> 00:14:15,259
那我们后面再要重新去测算了

319
00:14:15,259 --> 00:14:20,309
那现在这个概率我认为是比较低的额

320
00:14:20,309 --> 00:14:21,730
所以呢总的来判断

321
00:14:21,730 --> 00:14:24,190
我认为前两种的概率比较高啊

322
00:14:24,190 --> 00:14:26,149
第二种概率大于第一种

323
00:14:26,149 --> 00:14:28,960
然后呢大于第三种

324
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:29,519
好吧

325
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:33,250
这是我对于大概的一个市场的判断好

326
00:14:33,250 --> 00:14:34,409
那么说到大家说

327
00:14:34,409 --> 00:14:36,269
那这些股票投机这么这么厉害

328
00:14:36,269 --> 00:14:38,149
什么时候会结束投机呢

329
00:14:38,149 --> 00:14:40,429
这些股票到底高不高呢

330
00:14:40,429 --> 00:14:42,269
他是不是很严重呢

331
00:14:42,269 --> 00:14:44,298
投机的呃

332
00:14:44,298 --> 00:14:45,418
说到这个存储呢

333
00:14:45,418 --> 00:14:46,719
我就今天提一嘴哈

334
00:14:46,719 --> 00:14:47,958
因为大家一直在问

335
00:14:47,958 --> 00:14:50,578
所以我把美光啊SNDK啊

336
00:14:50,578 --> 00:14:55,090
他们的前瞻P包括现在的情况跟大家讲一讲

337
00:14:55,090 --> 00:14:56,889
但是我要声明一下啊

338
00:14:56,889 --> 00:15:02,710
就是这个都是截止到今天的业绩啊

339
00:15:02,710 --> 00:15:04,809
截止到今天的情况

340
00:15:04,809 --> 00:15:09,090
因为内存市场的价格是大幅变动的

341
00:15:09,090 --> 00:15:10,889
我们仅限于当天

342
00:15:10,889 --> 00:15:12,769
为什么内存价格会大幅变动

343
00:15:12,769 --> 00:15:15,610
我给大家看一下历史走势图

344
00:15:16,879 --> 00:15:18,480
这张图呢展示的是

345
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,730
从2010年到2020年期间

346
00:15:21,730 --> 00:15:29,210
整个的内存市场走过的两个高峰和三个低谷啊

347
00:15:29,210 --> 00:15:31,110
两个高峰和三个低谷

348
00:15:31,110 --> 00:15:34,789
这10年他一共是走了五趟啊

349
00:15:34,789 --> 00:15:37,149
上去下来上去下来上去下来

350
00:15:37,149 --> 00:15:39,889
然后呢到了20年之后

351
00:15:39,889 --> 00:15:43,190
有一个小冲高之后快速的回落

352
00:15:43,190 --> 00:15:46,639
一直回落到差不多23年才见底啊

353
00:15:46,639 --> 00:15:48,320
那我们这里说的不是股票价格啊

354
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,818
指的说的是内存的商品价格

355
00:15:50,818 --> 00:15:55,759
然后从23年开始一直回升到24年

356
00:15:55,759 --> 00:16:00,139
然后24年到25年又出现了一个下跌

357
00:16:00,139 --> 00:16:03,669
然后从25年到现在开始加速上涨

358
00:16:03,669 --> 00:16:06,470
所以内存价格的周期变化非常的快

359
00:16:06,470 --> 00:16:09,149
它主要是产能问题啊

360
00:16:09,149 --> 00:16:10,669
因为内存的产能

361
00:16:10,669 --> 00:16:13,879
它和2NM芯片那个产能是不一样的

362
00:16:13,879 --> 00:16:17,568
2NM芯片你想要快速提高产能比较的难

363
00:16:17,568 --> 00:16:21,448
但是呢内存这个呢在某一些产品上

364
00:16:21,448 --> 00:16:23,139
它不属于高科技

365
00:16:23,139 --> 00:16:24,980
他无非就是产能问题啊

366
00:16:24,980 --> 00:16:26,759
工厂生产线的问题好吧

367
00:16:26,759 --> 00:16:28,700
所以呢但是有一些还是高端的啊

368
00:16:28,700 --> 00:16:31,460
内存的高端产品基于人工智能和服务器的

369
00:16:31,460 --> 00:16:32,580
还是很高端的哈

370
00:16:32,580 --> 00:16:35,860
好所以这就是目前内存的一个大致情况

371
00:16:35,860 --> 00:16:37,220
它价格波动太快了

372
00:16:37,220 --> 00:16:38,940
一天一个价哈

373
00:16:39,340 --> 00:16:39,779
好

374
00:16:39,779 --> 00:16:40,899
那么你看到这个之后

375
00:16:40,899 --> 00:16:43,039
就知道内存的价格大幅变化

376
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:45,980
所以导致了现在的像美光啊

377
00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:47,039
ANDK啊

378
00:16:47,039 --> 00:16:52,190
他们的前瞻业绩调的巨高有多高呢

379
00:16:52,190 --> 00:16:54,690
我给大家看一下他们的前瞻P你就知道了

380
00:16:54,690 --> 00:16:57,490
镁光现在是666块钱的价格

381
00:16:57,490 --> 00:16:59,129
它的财年是8月

382
00:16:59,129 --> 00:17:04,409
截止26年8月的前瞻PE是11.4倍

383
00:17:04,409 --> 00:17:06,759
是不是相当的低啊

384
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:10,380
27年8月的前瞻PE是6.8倍

385
00:17:10,380 --> 00:17:11,799
是不是更低啊

386
00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:13,180
这么一看哇

387
00:17:13,180 --> 00:17:14,880
他还是个靓仔嘞对吧

388
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,359
666块钱的价格

389
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,779
这么便宜的前端P那还很便宜

390
00:17:18,779 --> 00:17:21,138
仍旧有大幅的上涨空间

391
00:17:21,138 --> 00:17:22,679
那正如我刚才说的

392
00:17:22,679 --> 00:17:24,939
因为内存价格的变动

393
00:17:24,939 --> 00:17:27,638
它是一个非常敏感

394
00:17:27,638 --> 00:17:30,029
非常快的事情

395
00:17:30,029 --> 00:17:32,009
现在是因为内存价格高企

396
00:17:32,009 --> 00:17:33,109
业绩预期爆炸

397
00:17:33,109 --> 00:17:34,949
看起来PE不高

398
00:17:34,949 --> 00:17:38,288
但是内存价格由谁说了算

399
00:17:38,288 --> 00:17:40,900
由现在的这些大厂说了算

400
00:17:40,900 --> 00:17:45,619
这些大厂如果有大力开工新厂建设的预期

401
00:17:45,619 --> 00:17:46,579
消息一发布

402
00:17:46,579 --> 00:17:48,740
说我们要提高多少多少产能

403
00:17:48,740 --> 00:17:52,400
那么内存的市场的预期价格瞬间就会下来

404
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,539
大家说那建厂不要时间吗

405
00:17:54,539 --> 00:17:56,659
建厂不需要建好

406
00:17:56,659 --> 00:17:58,919
只需要预期产能提升

407
00:17:58,919 --> 00:18:01,719
就能破坏市场的这个价格预期嘛

408
00:18:01,719 --> 00:18:04,538
因为市场就是买消息卖事实啊

409
00:18:04,538 --> 00:18:07,029
我不能等到三星工厂开工的那一天

410
00:18:07,029 --> 00:18:08,900
才卖这个存储股啊对吧

411
00:18:08,900 --> 00:18:11,519
那市场上早就有它产能预定出去了

412
00:18:11,519 --> 00:18:13,339
市场上又开始供应增加了

413
00:18:13,339 --> 00:18:14,859
那市场价格早就变动了

414
00:18:14,859 --> 00:18:16,799
所以叫买预期卖事实

415
00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:18,319
所以只要有这样的扩产

416
00:18:18,319 --> 00:18:20,130
大力扩产的消息一出来

417
00:18:20,130 --> 00:18:22,950
那么存储类的相关的这个价格

418
00:18:22,950 --> 00:18:24,849
它就会出现巨大的波动啊

419
00:18:24,849 --> 00:18:26,909
这是我们说要提醒大家的一点哈

420
00:18:26,909 --> 00:18:30,329
好所以镁光我提供给大家技术面

421
00:18:30,329 --> 00:18:32,769
大家呢你愿意怎么炒怎么炒啊

422
00:18:32,769 --> 00:18:34,710
因为前瞻估值我就不能提供了

423
00:18:34,710 --> 00:18:36,809
因为它的变化实在太大了

424
00:18:36,809 --> 00:18:39,299
技术面也仅是有限的提供啊

425
00:18:39,299 --> 00:18:41,579
现在上方基本上斜率拉的太高了

426
00:18:41,579 --> 00:18:44,388
上方的支撑其不其实都是无效的

427
00:18:44,388 --> 00:18:45,548
较有效的

428
00:18:45,548 --> 00:18:47,429
在546级下方

429
00:18:47,429 --> 00:18:50,529
而且中间都隔得相当的远

430
00:18:50,529 --> 00:18:50,990
好吧

431
00:18:50,990 --> 00:18:51,970
大家呢就自行

432
00:18:51,970 --> 00:18:54,039
你就跟着你的技术面

433
00:18:54,039 --> 00:18:55,400
你愿意怎么来呢

434
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,079
根据你的风险偏好去好吧

435
00:18:57,079 --> 00:19:00,940
这个地方我就没有什么特别多的这个看法

436
00:19:00,940 --> 00:19:05,230
好SNDKANDK的前瞻P多少呢

437
00:19:06,230 --> 00:19:07,589
26.1倍

438
00:19:07,589 --> 00:19:10,490
26年6月他这个财年马上截止了啊

439
00:19:10,490 --> 00:19:12,549
然后他再过几个月

440
00:19:12,549 --> 00:19:13,170
然后呢

441
00:19:13,170 --> 00:19:14,549
因为这个财报不是出了吗

442
00:19:14,549 --> 00:19:15,730
他到20年6月

443
00:19:15,730 --> 00:19:18,039
还有就是几一个月的时间

444
00:19:18,039 --> 00:19:19,900
大概发财报还要三个月

445
00:19:19,900 --> 00:19:22,319
但是这个前瞻不高对吧

446
00:19:22,319 --> 00:19:26,789
27年6月前瞻PE10倍也不高对吧

447
00:19:26,789 --> 00:19:28,789
看上去也很亮啊

448
00:19:28,789 --> 00:19:30,130
价格也很便宜

449
00:19:30,130 --> 00:19:31,569
但还是那个问题

450
00:19:31,569 --> 00:19:32,470
内存价格

451
00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:34,769
它那个EPS的业绩预期调整

452
00:19:34,769 --> 00:19:36,130
共识预期的调整也好

453
00:19:36,130 --> 00:19:39,450
他自己预期的调整随时会发生巨大的变化啊

454
00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:40,230
大家自行

455
00:19:40,230 --> 00:19:42,369
你注意去把握技术面呢

456
00:19:42,369 --> 00:19:45,970
这边就是同样997以下才有较强支撑

457
00:19:45,970 --> 00:19:48,930
其他的上方的这个都是快速拉上去的

458
00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:50,380
一天什么涨十个点

459
00:19:50,380 --> 00:19:51,299
八个点上去的

460
00:19:51,299 --> 00:19:53,630
这个就没有办法有支撑了啊

461
00:19:53,630 --> 00:19:54,670
怎么上去的呢

462
00:19:54,670 --> 00:19:55,869
他因为太空了

463
00:19:55,869 --> 00:19:56,869
他就会怎么下来

464
00:19:56,869 --> 00:20:00,309
所以这里我就没有什么其他的看法给大家位置

465
00:20:00,309 --> 00:20:03,220
大家平常自己多跟踪好

466
00:20:03,220 --> 00:20:06,420
然后呃英特尔也给大家技术面没给大家更新

467
00:20:06,420 --> 00:20:07,779
是不是同样的情况啊

468
00:20:07,779 --> 00:20:10,059
92~100和80~85

469
00:20:10,059 --> 00:20:12,099
这是一个缺口上去的两个位置

470
00:20:12,099 --> 00:20:15,019
然后下方的中等支撑在68块八啊

471
00:20:15,019 --> 00:20:16,279
也给大家看一下技术面啊

472
00:20:16,279 --> 00:20:19,440
基基本面上我们前几天已经给过大家了

473
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,400
前几天的在市价110块钱的时候

474
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,170
27年12月的前量PE是82倍

475
00:20:25,170 --> 00:20:27,529
82倍好吧好

476
00:20:27,529 --> 00:20:30,210
这个呢就是英特尔的情况

477
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,138
然后我再说一下英伟达啊

478
00:20:35,138 --> 00:20:36,739
MD昨天我们讲完了啊

479
00:20:36,739 --> 00:20:37,778
今天不多说好吧

480
00:20:37,778 --> 00:20:40,289
我们昨天给了前瞻估值的更新

481
00:20:40,289 --> 00:20:41,849
27年前瞻40倍

482
00:20:41,849 --> 00:20:44,349
基于40倍是310~414

483
00:20:44,349 --> 00:20:48,839
现在呃421是在这个前瞻的位置附近啊

484
00:20:48,839 --> 00:20:50,440
盘后跌到414

485
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:51,660
回到上线位置

486
00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:53,039
目前是顶格

487
00:20:53,039 --> 00:20:56,019
他需要继续提升前瞻哦

488
00:20:56,019 --> 00:20:57,240
昨天可能有的朋友问啊

489
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:58,400
说它为什么涨那么多

490
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,119
是因为他的这个数据

491
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,039
数据中心的这个业务

492
00:21:02,039 --> 00:21:04,200
预期后面会增长35%啊

493
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,720
但是这个我们在这个里边已经给大家了啊

494
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,240
已经把它计价到我们的这个潜能

495
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:10,869
估值计算里面去了

496
00:21:10,869 --> 00:21:12,750
好还有就是英伟达

497
00:21:15,069 --> 00:21:17,980
呃英伟达呢今天对吧

498
00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:19,440
很漂亮的一个放量

499
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:23,089
光头光脚的一个这个大阳线啊

500
00:21:23,089 --> 00:21:24,849
也不算光脚一点点引线啊

501
00:21:24,849 --> 00:21:26,890
一个超大阳线呃

502
00:21:26,890 --> 00:21:27,890
涨了五个点

503
00:21:27,890 --> 00:21:29,410
接近六个点呃

504
00:21:29,410 --> 00:21:30,869
今天呢动了呃

505
00:21:30,869 --> 00:21:33,900
但是呢你要把这两个股票摆在一起看呃

506
00:21:33,900 --> 00:21:35,339
没有AMD动的那么多

507
00:21:35,339 --> 00:21:37,339
所以有朋友又该难受了啊

508
00:21:37,339 --> 00:21:39,220
说涨少了哎

509
00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:40,539
怎么涨这么点呢

510
00:21:40,539 --> 00:21:41,690
说实话呢

511
00:21:41,690 --> 00:21:42,769
何必呢对吧

512
00:21:42,769 --> 00:21:44,369
你说你多涨20个点

513
00:21:44,369 --> 00:21:46,180
你不还在股市里吗对吧

514
00:21:46,180 --> 00:21:47,039
你也没下桌

515
00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:49,380
你也说你也不会说你不炒股了

516
00:21:49,380 --> 00:21:50,619
不投资了对吧

517
00:21:50,619 --> 00:21:52,180
你这个直接财富自由

518
00:21:52,180 --> 00:21:53,859
天天就出去溜达了

519
00:21:53,859 --> 00:21:54,940
你溜达完了无聊了

520
00:21:54,940 --> 00:21:56,299
你还是会回来炒股啊

521
00:21:56,299 --> 00:21:56,779
是不是

522
00:21:56,779 --> 00:21:58,380
所以这个多20个点

523
00:21:58,380 --> 00:21:59,019
少20个点

524
00:21:59,019 --> 00:22:00,910
现在是慢一点儿啊

525
00:22:00,910 --> 00:22:01,690
是慢一点

526
00:22:01,690 --> 00:22:05,490
但是不影响它的慢牛的趋势啊

527
00:22:05,490 --> 00:22:07,490
不影响趋势呃

528
00:22:07,490 --> 00:22:09,519
现在呢你还是那句话吧

529
00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:11,140
我们不能涨了也难受

530
00:22:11,140 --> 00:22:12,519
跌了也难受对吧

531
00:22:12,519 --> 00:22:13,920
没必要折磨自己吧

532
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:15,460
这个卖牛预期没变啊

533
00:22:15,460 --> 00:22:17,900
过去几天的这一轮缩量回踩

534
00:22:17,900 --> 00:22:19,140
我已经解释过了

535
00:22:19,140 --> 00:22:21,369
非常好的一个修复

536
00:22:21,369 --> 00:22:22,630
那么修复好了

537
00:22:22,630 --> 00:22:23,990
昨天也讲了九零

538
00:22:23,990 --> 00:22:25,930
昨天也套到了196

539
00:22:25,930 --> 00:22:28,069
一百九十九十七了对吧

540
00:22:28,069 --> 00:22:29,710
强支撑位置了对吧

541
00:22:29,710 --> 00:22:30,769
你没有仓位的

542
00:22:30,769 --> 00:22:31,750
配置过低的

543
00:22:31,750 --> 00:22:33,029
你想想办法呗对吧

544
00:22:33,029 --> 00:22:34,160
你要配置过高的

545
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,819
已经有满仓或者是比较重的

546
00:22:36,819 --> 00:22:38,599
就拿着慢牛待涨啊

547
00:22:38,599 --> 00:22:39,759
就这么一个思路啊

548
00:22:39,759 --> 00:22:41,220
不用期待太快

549
00:22:41,220 --> 00:22:44,279
目前呢它想快确实比较难啊

550
00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:45,720
实话实说会比较难

551
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,400
毕竟市值5万亿

552
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,319
你让他一天涨20个点

553
00:22:49,319 --> 00:22:51,269
一天干到6万亿对吧

554
00:22:51,269 --> 00:22:52,470
一天又涨20个点

555
00:22:52,470 --> 00:22:54,369
又又干到七点多万亿

556
00:22:54,369 --> 00:22:56,089
那这个标普就剩他了

557
00:22:56,089 --> 00:22:57,910
那问题那可能性也不大嘛

558
00:22:57,910 --> 00:22:59,849
需要有其他人慢慢赶上啊

559
00:22:59,849 --> 00:23:02,679
标普是指整体膨胀才行

560
00:23:02,919 --> 00:23:06,278
好额这个呢是英伟达上方有一个小压力

561
00:23:06,278 --> 00:23:08,118
208~211

562
00:23:08,118 --> 00:23:09,638
从前端估值上来看呢

563
00:23:09,638 --> 00:23:12,829
他的状况现在非常的便宜啊

564
00:23:12,829 --> 00:23:14,130
相当相当的便宜

565
00:23:14,130 --> 00:23:15,970
同样是基于30~40倍

566
00:23:15,970 --> 00:23:19,230
我们看一下28年1月295~394

567
00:23:19,230 --> 00:23:21,160
中卫334啊

568
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,500
基呃呃即便是你基于30倍的更低的测算

569
00:23:25,500 --> 00:23:26,519
把它估值啊

570
00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:27,380
市值太高了吧

571
00:23:27,380 --> 00:23:29,299
那算是我们把它给打个折

572
00:23:29,299 --> 00:23:34,759
那197~295价格也是相当的便宜好呃

573
00:23:34,759 --> 00:23:37,920
然后呢特斯拉这边咱们就不多讲吧

574
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:39,880
这个今天小放量呃

575
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,869
上方有一个小压力

576
00:23:41,869 --> 00:23:45,349
最重要的位置还是要看420~465啊

577
00:23:45,349 --> 00:23:46,509
这个地方是关键

578
00:23:46,509 --> 00:23:49,150
这个地方再突破一次呃

579
00:23:49,150 --> 00:23:51,700
下面这个往下的400下方

580
00:23:51,700 --> 00:23:53,859
这个地方暂时就没什么机会了啊

581
00:23:53,859 --> 00:23:54,799
就没什么机会了

582
00:23:54,799 --> 00:23:57,869
所以现在呢就是一个震荡

583
00:23:57,869 --> 00:23:59,410
还是在这个区间震荡啊

584
00:23:59,410 --> 00:24:01,630
这个区间震荡还没有没有过去

585
00:24:01,630 --> 00:24:04,259
仍旧在横好

586
00:24:04,259 --> 00:24:04,700
然后呢

587
00:24:04,700 --> 00:24:09,019
最后我想再说一下关于中东油价的事情

588
00:24:09,019 --> 00:24:11,579
还有市场在预期压的是什么东西啊

589
00:24:11,579 --> 00:24:13,940
给大家把它讲清楚

590
00:24:13,940 --> 00:24:15,420
你就你就不然的话

591
00:24:15,420 --> 00:24:18,099
每次老有朋友在问呃

592
00:24:18,099 --> 00:24:21,220
之前呢我们对于整个的市场的中东的进展

593
00:24:21,220 --> 00:24:25,039
在过去的两周时间里边已经是做了更新

594
00:24:25,039 --> 00:24:27,519
因为市场不是当时已经停火了吗

595
00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:30,700
已经做了一个新的叫做市场在压注什么的

596
00:24:30,700 --> 00:24:31,920
一个预期更新

597
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,480
现在的预期是什么

598
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:34,690
市场在压什么

599
00:24:34,690 --> 00:24:38,849
现在压的就是战争接近完全停止

600
00:24:38,849 --> 00:24:41,579
海峡随时会开放

601
00:24:41,859 --> 00:24:43,819
石油价格下跌

602
00:24:43,819 --> 00:24:47,460
只要油价跌下来就行啊

603
00:24:47,460 --> 00:24:50,730
因为影响经济的是高油价

604
00:24:50,730 --> 00:24:53,769
产油国呢现在能绕道的正在绕道

605
00:24:53,769 --> 00:24:55,700
能增产的正在增产

606
00:24:55,700 --> 00:24:58,240
包括中国从5月份开始

607
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,079
重新开放了成品油的出口限制

608
00:25:01,079 --> 00:25:02,019
大家也能看出来

609
00:25:02,019 --> 00:25:03,869
增加了市场的供应啊

610
00:25:03,869 --> 00:25:05,589
所以市场炒的是什么

611
00:25:05,589 --> 00:25:06,950
炒的就是这个预期

612
00:25:06,950 --> 00:25:10,049
油价未来会跌到90以下

613
00:25:10,049 --> 00:25:12,769
正在压住的就是这个东西

614
00:25:13,049 --> 00:25:16,670
当然如果真的战火重启

615
00:25:16,670 --> 00:25:20,289
油价维持在高位不降反涨

616
00:25:20,289 --> 00:25:22,990
这个预期就结束了

617
00:25:22,990 --> 00:25:24,349
就落空了

618
00:25:24,349 --> 00:25:26,569
那么市场该原地掉头

619
00:25:26,569 --> 00:25:28,359
就原地掉头

620
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,990
不妨碍再表演一次高台跳水

621
00:25:31,990 --> 00:25:34,710
因为这个机构呢他们需要的是波动啊

622
00:25:34,710 --> 00:25:36,529
它不是绝对涨幅

623
00:25:36,529 --> 00:25:38,349
我给大家打个比方

624
00:25:38,349 --> 00:25:43,829
一年时间里边标普1000点的范围来回波动三次

625
00:25:43,829 --> 00:25:46,509
比方说涨下去跌下来

626
00:25:46,509 --> 00:25:48,009
年底再涨上去啊

627
00:25:48,009 --> 00:25:49,130
波动三次

628
00:25:49,130 --> 00:25:52,269
这个比单边上涨或下跌1000点

629
00:25:52,269 --> 00:25:53,420
然后横盘

630
00:25:53,420 --> 00:25:55,019
这这两个相比的话

631
00:25:55,019 --> 00:25:58,059
前者对机构更有吸引力

632
00:25:58,380 --> 00:26:00,019
另外还有就是

633
00:26:00,019 --> 00:26:05,059
本轮上涨的大头是少量的科技股和半导体

634
00:26:05,059 --> 00:26:09,799
他们受到中东的影响非常非常的小

635
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,799
其实呢就是这两个因素在共同推动

636
00:26:13,799 --> 00:26:16,839
市场看上去走的有些疯狂和失真

637
00:26:16,839 --> 00:26:19,559
大量的股票我们给大家昨天展示过

638
00:26:19,559 --> 00:26:21,319
他还在下边趴着呢啊

639
00:26:21,319 --> 00:26:25,390
就是因为霍尔木兹海峡没有完全开放啊

640
00:26:25,390 --> 00:26:27,289
这些股票是受到影响的

641
00:26:27,289 --> 00:26:30,529
所以他们也没有回到52周的高点

642
00:26:30,529 --> 00:26:33,170
甚至有23只标普成份股

643
00:26:33,170 --> 00:26:35,909
还创下了52周的新低

644
00:26:35,909 --> 00:26:38,489
所以市场现在是这么一个状态

645
00:26:38,489 --> 00:26:40,788
是有一些失真啊

646
00:26:40,788 --> 00:26:42,348
有一些这个变形

647
00:26:42,348 --> 00:26:45,269
其实受到中东油价影响的个股

648
00:26:45,269 --> 00:26:46,750
它是没怎么动的啊

649
00:26:46,750 --> 00:26:48,150
它甚至还在跌的好吧

650
00:26:48,150 --> 00:26:51,640
所以呢请大家呃弄清楚现在到底在炒什么

651
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,000
预期压的是什么

652
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,339
如果预期变化了

653
00:26:54,339 --> 00:26:54,920
落空了

654
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,700
市场又会怎么转向啊

655
00:26:56,700 --> 00:26:57,579
这个比较关键啊

656
00:26:57,579 --> 00:26:59,599
因为现在的市场吧瞬息万变

657
00:26:59,599 --> 00:27:03,480
很很多东西都是呃消息面也多嘛

658
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:04,940
但是呢好的方向是

659
00:27:04,940 --> 00:27:07,680
大家认为战争基本上已经结束了啊

660
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,720
好总的来讲呢

661
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,059
标普啊现在是约等于半导体

662
00:27:13,059 --> 00:27:14,799
约等于半导体啊

663
00:27:14,799 --> 00:27:16,690
还没有等于半导体

664
00:27:16,690 --> 00:27:19,289
如果标普等到半导体的那一天

665
00:27:19,289 --> 00:27:22,170
那标普就没有存在的价值了啊

666
00:27:22,170 --> 00:27:25,410
所以呢这种情况我认为不会发生啊

667
00:27:25,410 --> 00:27:27,589
这是我们今天节目的一个关键

668
00:27:27,589 --> 00:27:30,130
一个核心绩优股

669
00:27:30,130 --> 00:27:31,609
刚才讲过的绩优股

670
00:27:31,609 --> 00:27:33,369
像英伟达这样的绩优股

671
00:27:33,369 --> 00:27:35,369
像微软这样的绩优股

672
00:27:35,369 --> 00:27:36,970
他没有动

673
00:27:36,970 --> 00:27:38,809
你要去潜伏

674
00:27:38,809 --> 00:27:40,099
给点耐心

675
00:27:40,099 --> 00:27:41,339
已经动了的

676
00:27:41,339 --> 00:27:43,240
你要知道他为什么在动

677
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,420
它现在被墙头肌正在干扰

678
00:27:46,420 --> 00:27:49,839
那么你如果想参与你投不投得过他们

679
00:27:49,839 --> 00:27:51,710
你的手脚够不够快

680
00:27:51,710 --> 00:27:53,950
这是考验你日内波动

681
00:27:53,950 --> 00:27:55,069
日内操作

682
00:27:55,069 --> 00:27:56,430
还有你的体力

683
00:27:56,430 --> 00:27:57,069
精力

684
00:27:57,069 --> 00:28:00,299
盯盘的这一系列的综合素质的体验

685
00:28:00,299 --> 00:28:02,420
所以呢你要说能不能涨

686
00:28:02,420 --> 00:28:03,160
能不能追

687
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:03,859
能不能买

688
00:28:03,859 --> 00:28:05,109
能不能高位去做

689
00:28:05,109 --> 00:28:07,269
那看你能不能承受这个波动啊

690
00:28:07,269 --> 00:28:08,470
手脚够不够快了

691
00:28:08,470 --> 00:28:10,000
好吧好

692
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,140
这个呢就是咱们今天节目带给大家的

693
00:28:12,140 --> 00:28:15,259
关于市场的一些内容的更新和解读啊

694
00:28:15,259 --> 00:28:16,940
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

695
00:28:16,940 --> 00:28:20,349
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发啊

696
00:28:20,349 --> 00:28:21,690
昨天点赞率也相当不错

697
00:28:21,690 --> 00:28:23,089
感谢大家好

698
00:28:23,089 --> 00:28:24,329
那今天市场普涨

699
00:28:24,329 --> 00:28:25,329
皆大欢喜

700
00:28:25,329 --> 00:28:29,349
希望呢后面的市场啊继续能够稳稳当当啊

701
00:28:29,349 --> 00:28:30,269
稳稳当当

702
00:28:30,269 --> 00:28:32,828
大家呢雨露均沾好

703
00:28:32,828 --> 00:28:33,548
那我们今天到这

704
00:28:33,548 --> 00:28:36,920
咱们就明天同一时间不见不散

共 20 条，按点赞数排序。

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