【NaNa说美股】20260428华尔街日报肯定炒股！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是4月28号

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周日

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在周三科技巨头交卷之前呢

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资金观望情绪去浓厚

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油价和美债收益率走高

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给美股市场带来压力

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板块出现明显分化

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科技股普遍走低

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油气医疗保险板块上涨

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纽约时报报道称

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川普对伊朗提出的三阶段谈判方案不满意

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该提案呢要求美国先结束对伊朗的海上封锁

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将如何处置啊

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伊朗核计划的问题先搁置一旁

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伊朗此前就已经多次拒绝了

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美国提出的暂停核计划

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并交出高浓缩铀库存的方案

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随后CNN报道称

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据知情人士透露

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调解三方谈判进程的巴基斯坦

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预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗的修订版提议

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先返回德黑兰

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与伊朗国内的军方高层进行磋商

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这个过程进展的会比较缓慢

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反正天天都是各路的消息人士透露

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这个透露那个的有个鸟用啊

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中国的有关部门

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美国的消息人士

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这是世界上两大最神秘的组织哈

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一个呢专门用来甩锅打太极

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另外一个呢专门配合炒股画K线

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国际油价继续攀升

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日内一度冲上100美元了

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随着消息人士的护盘又被压下去

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两边的嘴炮说啥都是假的哈

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霍尔木兹海峡什么时候能够走船

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那才是真的

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但是现在已经没人在意这事情

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更多还是因为OpenAI小作文砸盘

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最近的AI硬件经历了一段时间的暴力上涨

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油光满面哈

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明天又要集中考试了嘛

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怕不及格

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就接着小作文来先出一批货

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华尔街日报报道称

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OpenAI增长失速

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最新业绩表现没达到多项内部目标

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包括原定于去年底实现叉

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GBT每周10亿用户的计划以及收入目标

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原因之一呢是竞争对手ENTROPICK

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在编程以及企业市场持续抢占份额

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用户流失率是因为谷歌GEMINI的崛起而持续承压

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公司CFO已经向公司其他高层表示担忧

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如果收入增长速度不够快的话

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公司未来可能无力承担

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后续算理合同的巨额支出

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这个消息打击了3000如火如荼的AI蓄势哈

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在财报季前

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重新引发了对科技巨头们巨额AI支出

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回报率和可持续性的担忧

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尽管OpenAI很快就反驳了这一篇报道

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称公司的广告业务与企业业务火力全开

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正在持续增长

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但是open a的几个核心合作伙伴

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包括软银

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甲骨文

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Amd

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他们几个股价呢都出现了下跌

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其实华尔街日报报道的这个事情哈

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并不是什么新的消息

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不是捏造的

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从去年11月以来呢

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与OpenAI相关的一揽子公司

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明显就股价表现跑输同行

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自2024年底以来

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与OpenAI相关的股票累计上涨约75%

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而与谷歌相关的一组股票涨幅超过300%

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而且与ONTOP克相关的一揽子股票相比

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OpenAI这一组呢也同样跑输

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大家都知道

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彭爱如今再也没有当初点石成金的那个效果了

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之前他随随便便的宣布和某家公司合作

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和AMD合作

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和甲骨文合作哈

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后者的股价立即就能够原地起飞

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一蹦三尺高

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而如今呢OPPI再宣布和谁谁谁合作的话

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而且经常盘前拉高

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开盘就直接掉下来

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药效已经远远的不如以前了

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所以华尔街日报在科技巨头们明天财报前

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故意放出这个消息来炒冷饭

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在我看来就是找个理由回调一下而已

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最近市场formal情绪太疯狂了哈

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那值100讲那么多

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找个借口获利了结一部分呢

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呃顺便让市场情绪降温一下

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来

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更好的迎接科技巨头们的财报

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大家还记不记得很多的金融媒体

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当时都说唉市场流动性很紧张

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因为挂单深度买卖价差在缩紧啊

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所以这个指数横盘几个月涨不动

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但是现在这一波改控行情

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大家都发现屁啦

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其实钱多的是好吧

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洪水泛滥

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市场永远不缺钱

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只看机构和系统性资金要不要拉而已

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至于所谓的基本面

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技术面

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那都是涨跌之后哈

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自有华尔街分析师为市场变金

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跌的时候

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华尔街就翻出通胀预期

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地缘政治

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美联储缩表论证崩盘有理

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展的时候呢

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还是这一批机构他们会开始讨论生产力爆表

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AI叙事欢呼大牛市

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美股现在的本质和过去不同了哈

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是一个嗯高度金融工程化的市场呃

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尤其是现在AI呃加进去了之后哈

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更加是额走势跟过去完全不同

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基本面实际上还是长期的锚点

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但无论是在日线

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周线还是月线级别的波动中

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它都只是背景板而已了

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技术面呢现在就主要是给算法提供触发信号哈

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包括那些消息面

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也主要是喂给那些量化机器人

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资金面与市场头寸

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才是真正的一个中长期的引擎

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比如3月份啊

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美股为什么没有跌到位哈

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跌到这一个嗯

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2025年历史前高

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触及这个回踩测试支撑呢

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因为机构们之前买太多的对冲保险了嘛

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呃还有因为CCTA之前在下跌过程中卖太快

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卖的太多了

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仓位已经极端空头了

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所以就跌不下去了

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后面为什么一直涨

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一直嘎空呢

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也同样是因为CCTA的仓位从空翻多了

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要快速的买购股票

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因为空头头寸太多了

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大资金这时候选择噶空

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比继续往下砸盘收益更大

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还有因为对冲基金的仓位已经降的太低了

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所以他们也要赶紧着买

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够补足股票

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但是无论是这个下跌还是呃后面上涨

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基本面有改变吗

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没有霍尔木兹海峡那个时候一直关着

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现在还是一样关着

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所以在这个系统里哈

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你试图去用以前的正常的那种逻辑

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去说服这个行情

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去解释行情是徒劳的

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观察系统性资金的阈值在哪里

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比去听分析师辩经要有用的多

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就是听那些基本面基本听不出个所以然来

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就是在当前的美股生态中

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所谓的基本面和技术面

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已经让位于微观结构和这个系统性的流向了

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所以那巴菲特指标什么的

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哎呀没必要看真的

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现在ct的仓位已经拉满了哈

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买盘资金消耗殆尽了

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空头呢也基本都灰飞烟灭

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主要上涨主要是靠惯性推动

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虽然这个位置继续买入的人少了

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但只要卖的人也少

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那股指还是能够继续维持在高位的

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对于这一轮涨势的顶部在哪里呢

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美银技术策略师表示

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标普500指数已经突破了呃

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这个头肩底形态的目标位包括7000点整数关口

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以及延伸目标位7084点

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这一轮脉冲式上涨哈

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目前呢正处于必要的盘整阶段

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这一周养老金月底再平衡呢

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要带来230亿美元的抛压呃

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大盘就顺势回调一下

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而且科技巨头们财报还没有发布

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所以这个时候呢他们正处于回购嗯

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静末期哈

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要等他们财报发布了之后

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钱才会开始进来

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所以在这个真空期嗯

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指数就盘整一下是很正常的

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但是美银认为这个回调呢会很浅

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预计指数将会很快就向上突破

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并且在5月或者6月份创出新高

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可能会在7308到

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7377点区域见顶啊

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其实也很接近了哈

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然后呢

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随着夏季流动性的下降

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还有中期选举的临近

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下行的修正恶浪风险将会日益增加

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美音成这一个修正烂断呢

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应该被视为买入的机会

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因为在中期选举后的反弹

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以及年底圣诞行情

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往往是中期选举年的一个非常强劲的特征

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给大家看这张图主要是为了给大家做个参考哈

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但是咱们也不要把它奉为真理

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任何机构策略师

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高盛

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摩根大通或美英

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他们都有可能看错行情

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按照他画的这个线

218
00:09:30,580 --> 00:09:33,700
标普500在突破7300点之前

219
00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:37,809
当下这个盘整最深呢不会跌破7000点

220
00:09:37,809 --> 00:09:42,649
最低大概也就是触及七千十七千六十附近

221
00:09:42,649 --> 00:09:45,090
所以要是跟随他的策略

222
00:09:45,090 --> 00:09:49,720
那短线多头可以将7000点设置为止损位

223
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:50,799
只要不跌破

224
00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:53,039
就可以继续持股待涨

225
00:09:53,039 --> 00:09:55,740
等指数站上了7300点之后

226
00:09:55,740 --> 00:09:57,659
再开始分批止盈

227
00:09:57,659 --> 00:10:01,940
要是指数这个盘整回调就跌破了7000点

228
00:10:01,940 --> 00:10:04,559
那就说明每一民策略是做的这个推演啊

229
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:05,259
错了哈

230
00:10:05,259 --> 00:10:07,599
市场没有按他的这个剧本走

231
00:10:07,599 --> 00:10:09,038
那就得先离场了

232
00:10:09,038 --> 00:10:11,078
不能够头铁去硬扛

233
00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:13,839
先出来再看到底什么情况

234
00:10:13,839 --> 00:10:16,139
所以接下来呢我们就验证一下

235
00:10:16,139 --> 00:10:20,169
观察后面的走势是否遵循这个剧本

236
00:10:20,169 --> 00:10:20,970
个股方面

237
00:10:20,970 --> 00:10:23,049
在OpenAI今天小作文出来后

238
00:10:23,049 --> 00:10:24,940
相关概念股集体承压

239
00:10:24,940 --> 00:10:26,639
COVIA迅速回应

240
00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:26,919
称

241
00:10:26,919 --> 00:10:29,080
他的业务不依赖单一客户

242
00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,700
客户的取证现在已经涵盖了auto pick OpenAI

243
00:10:32,700 --> 00:10:36,779
谷歌和MEA是全球最大的四家AI模型厂商

244
00:10:36,779 --> 00:10:39,879
爷爷送礼需求仍然超过供给

245
00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:42,059
即便欧朋要面临增长压力

246
00:10:42,059 --> 00:10:44,330
口语的基本面也不会因此动摇

247
00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:46,009
嗯就是说没有open e

248
00:10:46,009 --> 00:10:47,210
他也有其他客户

249
00:10:47,210 --> 00:10:49,840
而且背后还有那个英伟达是吧

250
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,679
但市场担忧情绪并没有完全的消散哈

251
00:10:54,710 --> 00:10:56,870
甲骨文这边股价跌了4%

252
00:10:56,870 --> 00:11:01,009
他手里3000亿美元的订单是和OpenAI挂钩的

253
00:11:01,009 --> 00:11:05,929
若是open e无法按计划为它庞大的基础设施承诺

254
00:11:05,929 --> 00:11:07,349
持续买单的话

255
00:11:07,349 --> 00:11:10,948
那甲骨文面临的第一顺位风险就会迅速放大

256
00:11:10,948 --> 00:11:13,749
而且他的这个债务也是非常的沉重

257
00:11:13,749 --> 00:11:15,120
现金流为负

258
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,600
它的股价已经跌破了170亿美元

259
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,129
这条仅线趋势已经转弱了

260
00:11:20,129 --> 00:11:21,769
今天能够低开高走

261
00:11:21,769 --> 00:11:25,539
主要有下方月均线和缺口双重支撑

262
00:11:25,539 --> 00:11:29,299
等什么时候股价重新站上颈线和半年线哈

263
00:11:29,299 --> 00:11:31,159
才算是重新走强

264
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,639
罗宾沪的盘后呢出财报了

265
00:11:33,639 --> 00:11:35,440
Q1营收10.7亿美元

266
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:36,919
同比增长15%

267
00:11:36,919 --> 00:11:39,929
但是低于华尔街预期的11.8亿美元

268
00:11:39,929 --> 00:11:41,889
其他交易收入都增产了

269
00:11:41,889 --> 00:11:45,330
但是被加密货币交易收入下降47%

270
00:11:45,330 --> 00:11:49,039
所抵消净利息收入同比增长了24%

271
00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:51,759
其他收入同比增长了57%

272
00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:54,340
摊薄后每股收益38美分

273
00:11:54,340 --> 00:11:56,299
同比只增长了3%

274
00:11:56,299 --> 00:11:59,559
而且低于预期的46美分

275
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,879
罗宾who的good的这个订阅用户

276
00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:05,220
同比增长了120万

277
00:12:05,220 --> 00:12:06,940
就增长36%

278
00:12:06,940 --> 00:12:08,839
达到了430万人

279
00:12:08,839 --> 00:12:12,039
每用户平均收入呢同比增长8%

280
00:12:12,039 --> 00:12:13,620
到157美元

281
00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:14,799
公司CEO表示

282
00:12:14,799 --> 00:12:18,879
第二季度在4月开具良好股票和期权交易量

283
00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:21,610
有望成为全年最高的月份

284
00:12:21,610 --> 00:12:24,549
因为4月整个市场都疯狂嘛

285
00:12:24,549 --> 00:12:27,539
嗯现在股价盘后下跌哈

286
00:12:27,539 --> 00:12:27,940
完蛋了

287
00:12:27,940 --> 00:12:29,179
我手里有50股

288
00:12:29,179 --> 00:12:31,220
这票现在就被套住了

289
00:12:31,220 --> 00:12:34,720
这股票与比特币和美联储货币政策

290
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:35,980
深度绑定的哈

291
00:12:35,980 --> 00:12:37,840
比特币那边硬不起来

292
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,580
它这里也好不了

293
00:12:39,580 --> 00:12:44,350
我现在就都把它当那个虚拟货币来看待了

294
00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:46,110
现在呢我犹豫着哈

295
00:12:46,110 --> 00:12:49,440
要不要等股价跌到65美元的时候

296
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:50,720
再加仓50股

297
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,360
凑足100股来卖

298
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,389
背对扣奶收租金

299
00:12:54,389 --> 00:12:56,750
光通信概念股康宁

300
00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:58,250
它跌了8.9%

301
00:12:58,250 --> 00:13:01,230
第一季度业绩整体达标和新销售额

302
00:13:01,230 --> 00:13:02,730
同比增长18%

303
00:13:02,730 --> 00:13:04,000
略超预期

304
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,620
核心每股收益70每分

305
00:13:06,620 --> 00:13:08,419
同比增长30%哈

306
00:13:08,419 --> 00:13:10,480
同样也是略超预期

307
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,919
说明预期打的很高了

308
00:13:12,919 --> 00:13:16,080
光学通信部门销售额大增36%

309
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,620
官服部门同比增长80%

310
00:13:18,620 --> 00:13:23,460
二季度核心EPS指引呢为73~77美分

311
00:13:23,460 --> 00:13:25,720
同比增幅约25%

312
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,720
这显示公司的盈利能力提升的趋势人在延续

313
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,100
但是呢区间中指75美分

314
00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:35,460
要略低于彭博一致预期的76美分

315
00:13:35,460 --> 00:13:36,899
公司预计二季度

316
00:13:36,899 --> 00:13:39,419
核心销售额大约为46亿美元

317
00:13:39,419 --> 00:13:41,389
同比增幅约14%

318
00:13:41,389 --> 00:13:45,230
环比呈现小幅放缓的这个态势哈

319
00:13:45,230 --> 00:13:48,470
主要受太阳能近远工厂延长检修

320
00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:50,340
带来的额外成本劳动

321
00:13:50,340 --> 00:13:52,860
剔除掉一次性维护费用影响后呢

322
00:13:52,860 --> 00:13:55,539
业务的内生增长逻辑并没有改变

323
00:13:55,539 --> 00:13:58,000
AI数据中心扩张还在加速

324
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,019
光伏供货还在放量

325
00:14:00,019 --> 00:14:03,159
这两大核心驱动力依然坚实

326
00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:04,940
但是呃问题在于

327
00:14:04,940 --> 00:14:06,940
它的股价前面涨太多了

328
00:14:06,940 --> 00:14:08,799
预期打太满太高

329
00:14:08,799 --> 00:14:11,240
这一份让投资者失望的指引呢

330
00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,679
就成为了股价今天回调的导火索

331
00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:14,919
管理层坦诚

332
00:14:14,919 --> 00:14:19,039
二季度将会迎来光伏硅片工厂的重大维护

333
00:14:19,039 --> 00:14:21,029
停产以及升级改造

334
00:14:21,029 --> 00:14:24,409
预计将会产生大约3000万美元的一次性费用

335
00:14:24,409 --> 00:14:26,568
但是呢管理层同时强调

336
00:14:26,568 --> 00:14:30,970
这个停产是为了后面打通更高的产能上限哈

337
00:14:30,970 --> 00:14:34,289
为这个后续盈利能力跃升奠定基础

338
00:14:34,289 --> 00:14:35,500
所以应该是好事

339
00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:37,059
股价高位之后呢

340
00:14:37,059 --> 00:14:38,259
现在出现了分歧

341
00:14:38,259 --> 00:14:40,220
存在短期波动风险

342
00:14:40,220 --> 00:14:41,179
过去几个月

343
00:14:41,179 --> 00:14:43,879
公司内部高管全都在卖嗯

344
00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:46,659
总计减持了约37万股

345
00:14:46,659 --> 00:14:49,440
累计套现超过3300万美元

346
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,320
对于这个公司体量来说

347
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,639
这点减持的金额属于毛毛雨啦

348
00:14:53,639 --> 00:14:54,700
完全正常哈

349
00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:57,389
并不真正构成负面的信号

350
00:14:57,389 --> 00:14:59,649
但是在股价连续大涨之后

351
00:14:59,649 --> 00:15:01,950
处于历史高位的背景之下

352
00:15:01,950 --> 00:15:06,379
这么一致的减持行为仍值得我们这个保持关注

353
00:15:06,379 --> 00:15:09,799
在妖股POET昨天崩盘之后

354
00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:14,399
康宁的这份财报其实也再次打击了光通信板块

355
00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:18,000
这些被资金最近热捧的光通信代表

356
00:15:19,460 --> 00:15:23,419
虽然AI算力狂热的确推动了怼光通信的刚需

357
00:15:23,419 --> 00:15:27,179
但是炒作提前透支了未来一两年的业绩

358
00:15:27,179 --> 00:15:28,659
估值泡沫化

359
00:15:28,659 --> 00:15:30,679
最近股票一个接一个的暴雷

360
00:15:30,679 --> 00:15:32,840
资金获利了结的意愿增强

361
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,080
市场后面可能开启高低切换哈

362
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,240
OpenAI今天的小作文这个时候放出来

363
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,839
可能就是配合主力资金的调仓

364
00:15:41,839 --> 00:15:44,278
arm继昨天收跌8%之后

365
00:15:45,499 --> 00:15:48,840
由于天丰国际证券分期是郭明启

366
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:49,639
昨天称

367
00:15:49,639 --> 00:15:54,078
高通正在与OpenAI合作开发专用智能手机芯片

368
00:15:54,078 --> 00:15:54,979
投资者担心

369
00:15:54,979 --> 00:15:58,558
这款新的芯片可能不再采用arm的架构

370
00:15:58,558 --> 00:16:01,279
或者呢arm在其中的参与度极低

371
00:16:01,279 --> 00:16:04,659
由于高通一直都是arm的核心客户哈

372
00:16:04,659 --> 00:16:07,240
任何可能绕过arm的重大合作

373
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,679
都会引发投资者对这个arm未来授权费收入的

374
00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:13,360
深度的这个恐慌

375
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:18,200
再加上前期这股票炒作CPU题材涨幅已经过大

376
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,139
资金也开始寻求落袋为安

377
00:16:20,139 --> 00:16:23,519
这或许是arm接连大跌的直接原因

378
00:16:24,860 --> 00:16:26,200
今天呢公布财报后

379
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,139
股价飙升了十四零%

380
00:16:28,139 --> 00:16:32,379
涨标普500指数成份股公司Q1业绩超预期

381
00:16:32,379 --> 00:16:34,659
并且上调了全年盈利指引

382
00:16:34,659 --> 00:16:36,649
目前预计2026财年

383
00:16:36,649 --> 00:16:39,610
每股收益将会超过3.4美元

384
00:16:39,610 --> 00:16:42,090
而此前预估为3.02美元

385
00:16:42,090 --> 00:16:44,820
股价日K今天收出一根长阳线

386
00:16:44,820 --> 00:16:46,379
自4月初以来

387
00:16:46,379 --> 00:16:48,679
股价就反弹了54%哈

388
00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:50,490
持续修复估值

389
00:16:50,490 --> 00:16:55,070
哎没想到医疗保险板块今天就表现这么的硬

390
00:16:55,070 --> 00:17:00,230
我的100股联合健康原本是卖背对扣

391
00:17:00,230 --> 00:17:01,850
美滋滋收租金用的哈

392
00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:03,929
结果这一下就要被扣走了

393
00:17:03,929 --> 00:17:05,159
心好痛啊

394
00:17:05,159 --> 00:17:08,578
所以卖背对扣其实有时候也挺烦的哈

395
00:17:08,578 --> 00:17:10,699
因为股价大跌的时候呢

396
00:17:10,699 --> 00:17:13,449
那点期权经弥补不了损失

397
00:17:13,449 --> 00:17:15,209
股价大涨的时候呢

398
00:17:15,209 --> 00:17:16,249
又容易卖飞

399
00:17:16,249 --> 00:17:21,848
我现在是在犹豫要不要往后倒更晚的行权日期

400
00:17:21,848 --> 00:17:23,249
还是干脆就算了

401
00:17:23,249 --> 00:17:25,269
吃掉这一笔期权金

402
00:17:25,269 --> 00:17:29,619
然后就等被行权之后再重新卖出一张put来

403
00:17:29,619 --> 00:17:33,690
等着这个低价接回或者继续吃期权金

404
00:17:33,690 --> 00:17:35,569
我觉得今天涨成这样子

405
00:17:35,569 --> 00:17:38,589
还有很大的部分原因就是资金避险

406
00:17:38,589 --> 00:17:41,539
所以流入这些防御股里面

407
00:17:41,539 --> 00:17:43,700
等科技巨头发布财报了

408
00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:45,279
如果危险解除的话

409
00:17:45,279 --> 00:17:47,359
资金可能又会跑去抄底嗯

410
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,180
科技股哈

411
00:17:48,180 --> 00:17:50,619
这些医疗保险股可能就又下来了

412
00:17:50,619 --> 00:17:52,640
航空股今天集体走低

413
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:54,319
美银最新数据显示

414
00:17:54,319 --> 00:17:56,299
自伊朗战争开打以来

415
00:17:56,299 --> 00:17:59,440
机票价格与行李费用大幅上涨

416
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,200
旅客出行意愿开始消退

417
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,440
航空客流量显著放缓

418
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,019
近期出行量已经低于2024年

419
00:18:07,019 --> 00:18:09,659
于2025年同期水平了

420
00:18:09,659 --> 00:18:13,538
如果将航空出行视作前瞻性经济指标的话

421
00:18:13,538 --> 00:18:16,609
那么随着油价持续的维持在高位

422
00:18:16,609 --> 00:18:20,680
对经济的滞后影响哈开始逐渐显现出来了

423
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:21,599
美银表示

424
00:18:21,599 --> 00:18:23,900
在3月强势增长过后

425
00:18:23,900 --> 00:18:27,599
4月非必需服务消费将会整体减弱

426
00:18:27,599 --> 00:18:30,920
是5月份的CPI通胀数据哈

427
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:32,859
我觉得还是值得担心的

428
00:18:32,859 --> 00:18:36,779
音频流媒体平台SPOTIFY第一季度业绩超预期

429
00:18:36,779 --> 00:18:38,619
营收同比增长了14%

430
00:18:38,619 --> 00:18:41,638
调整后每股收益为3.45欧元

431
00:18:41,638 --> 00:18:43,959
超过预期的2.95欧元

432
00:18:43,959 --> 00:18:46,439
月活跃用户呢同比增长12%

433
00:18:46,439 --> 00:18:48,558
本季度净增了300万

434
00:18:48,558 --> 00:18:49,519
订阅用户

435
00:18:49,519 --> 00:18:52,210
毛利率达到创纪录的33%

436
00:18:52,210 --> 00:18:56,029
自有现金流达到创纪录的8.24亿欧元

437
00:18:56,029 --> 00:18:59,680
但是二季度营收指引要低于市场预测

438
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,579
这反应有点过度哈

439
00:19:03,579 --> 00:19:05,200
自2025年6月以来

440
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,940
股价累计回撤了约45%

441
00:19:07,940 --> 00:19:08,720
这个股票

442
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,660
其实也是受到了整个软件板块的情绪拖累

443
00:19:12,660 --> 00:19:14,579
也就被杀估值了

444
00:19:14,579 --> 00:19:17,140
通用汽车第一季度业绩超预期

445
00:19:17,140 --> 00:19:19,140
股价日内多拉锯之后呢

446
00:19:19,140 --> 00:19:20,599
最终多头胜出

447
00:19:20,599 --> 00:19:23,319
虽然营收同比下降了0.9%

448
00:19:23,319 --> 00:19:24,940
净利润26亿美元

449
00:19:24,940 --> 00:19:26,990
同比下降5.7%

450
00:19:26,990 --> 00:19:30,069
但是调整后每股收益3.7美元

451
00:19:30,069 --> 00:19:32,789
要远好于预期的2.61美元

452
00:19:32,789 --> 00:19:35,670
公司将2026年全年调整后

453
00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:36,930
每股收益指引

454
00:19:36,930 --> 00:19:41,000
上调到11.5到13.5美元之间

455
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,099
这要高于市场预期的12.24美元

456
00:19:44,099 --> 00:19:45,180
上调的原因呢是

457
00:19:45,180 --> 00:19:47,069
美国最高法院嗯

458
00:19:47,069 --> 00:19:51,750
就国际紧急经济权力法下缴纳的某些关税

459
00:19:51,750 --> 00:19:52,750
作出裁决之后

460
00:19:52,750 --> 00:19:55,549
带来约5亿美元的有力调整

461
00:19:55,549 --> 00:19:58,690
就是有一笔关税行就退回公司

462
00:19:58,690 --> 00:19:59,789
公司目前预计

463
00:19:59,789 --> 00:20:01,799
2026年的关税总成本呢

464
00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:04,200
为25亿到35亿美元之间

465
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,750
只要低于最初估计的30亿到40亿美元

466
00:20:07,750 --> 00:20:11,569
UP第一季度营收与利润都超出华尔街预期

467
00:20:11,569 --> 00:20:15,950
但是公司仍然维持全年财务指引不变

468
00:20:15,950 --> 00:20:19,359
就对前景还是比较持谨慎态度

469
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,200
这个让投资者感到失望

470
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,240
因为它的主要竞争对手联邦快递

471
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,420
三个月才刚刚上调了全年利润预期

472
00:20:27,420 --> 00:20:29,819
由于美国贸易政策摇摆不定

473
00:20:29,819 --> 00:20:32,720
以及染料成本上涨带来的影响

474
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,659
UPS美国国内业务的利润率和息

475
00:20:36,659 --> 00:20:39,210
税前利润呢都不及预期

476
00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:43,529
在经历了数年股价低迷与盈利乏力的困境之后

477
00:20:43,529 --> 00:20:47,680
公司表示今年第一季度是关键的转型期呃

478
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,609
已经顺利执行了多项重大策略调整

479
00:20:51,609 --> 00:20:54,529
预计将在今年年中达到拐点

480
00:20:54,529 --> 00:20:58,009
届时亚马逊包裹削减计划将会完成

481
00:20:58,009 --> 00:21:01,890
公司将重新恢复整体营收与营业利润增长

482
00:21:01,890 --> 00:21:03,829
并且推动利润率的扩张

483
00:21:03,829 --> 00:21:04,869
过去3年哈

484
00:21:04,869 --> 00:21:06,549
又BS股价一直落后于大盘

485
00:21:06,549 --> 00:21:08,289
今天跳空低开之后呢

486
00:21:08,289 --> 00:21:11,529
空头回补以及一些抄底买盘的进入

487
00:21:11,529 --> 00:21:13,210
股价日内收窄了跌幅

488
00:21:13,210 --> 00:21:15,349
收出一根十字星行

489
00:21:15,349 --> 00:21:17,029
今天我们就简单说到这里

490
00:21:17,029 --> 00:21:20,630
那就等明天盘后的重磅这个剧透财报好

491
00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:22,309
我们明天见拜拜

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