【Financial Education】我最新推荐3支必买股票

1
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哦，我们是不是喜欢翻转那些煎饼

2
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我们翻得刚刚好

3
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女士们先生们，我们不是吗

4
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好的

5
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我们开始聊聊吧

6
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今天这视频里有几个主题要讲

7
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感谢大家一如既往地加入我

8
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好的

9
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所以啊，我想谈谈公共持仓

10
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我想谈谈我目前在做什么

11
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一些操作

12
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我打算建立一些仓位

13
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仓位管理

14
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我想讨论这个

15
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顺便说一句

16
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今天行情很好

17
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六位数收益

18
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公共账户今天六位数收益

19
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绝对精彩

20
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希望你们那边赚得盆满钵满

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希望你的投资组合创下历史新高

22
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或者至少接近历史新高

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希望大多数人都这样

24
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好的，讲完这些之后

25
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我不想回应这个视频

26
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我要回应这个视频的原因是

27
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很多人一直让我谈谈SpaceX

28
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我觉得这是个绝佳机会谈谈SpaceX

29
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我对这只股票感兴趣吗

30
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如果我现在不感兴趣

31
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什么时候会感兴趣

32
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是永远吗

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六个月后

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一年后

35
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我觉得这是个绝佳机会

36
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这个视频几乎病毒式传播了

37
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在YouTube上

38
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这个视频在股市空间获得了超过四十余万播放

39
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数量很大

40
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吉姆·奇诺

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呃

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著名做空者

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我觉得他从未在特斯拉做空赚钱

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虽然我不完全确定

45
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但我说

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我认为他在那上面长期遭受重创

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他在IPO市场对SpaceX持强烈负面观点

48
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这对市场周期意味着什么

49
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这类事情

50
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我觉得这对我是个很棒的视频

51
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为了回应并分享我的观点和视角

52
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好的

53
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在我们完成刚才的讨论后

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我想介绍我目前看好的三只最佳股票

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今天我们将在这期视频中讨论这些内容

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在完成刚才的分析后

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接下来我们要讨论的是迈克·威尔逊

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迈克·威尔逊最近在彭博社发表了观点

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关于市场未来的发展方向

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以及类似的相关内容

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有一点我需要提醒大家

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如果你还没这样做的话

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请给我点个赞

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一个小小的点赞

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图标

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让它发光

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即使你是在电视上看的

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请点亮那个小点赞

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让图标亮起来

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我觉得你能在电视上做到对吧

71
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感谢大家一如既往地支持

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顺便提醒大家下方置顶评论

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只剩八天了

74
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如果你想申请加入我的私享股票群组

75
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该群组即将关闭新成员注册

76
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这里

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获得所有课程资料的权限

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进入私密Discord频道

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实时交流千人讨论

80
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洞察市场动向

81
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我将制作多部独家周度视频

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我在周一录制了一期视频

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明天我还会为私享群组录制视频

84
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所以啊

85
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如果你想提升投资水平到更高层次

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超越当前水平

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下方置顶评论已经标注好了

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女士们先生们

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你订阅了我的频道吗

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顺便说一句

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你应该订阅

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如果我们观察公开数据

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统计结果

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一目了然

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当前存在一个情况

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那就是AMD在投资组合中的占比越来越大

97
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这只股票已经涨到了31点

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现在AMD占整个投资组合的2.5%

99
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涨幅非常显著

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我们的收益已超过一百万美元

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我们的涨幅接近一点

102
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现在amd股票价值一百万美元

103
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就在这个时候对吧

104
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这只是一个非常大的数字

105
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没错现在你可能会说像啊

106
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这不难吗只涨了一点

107
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一百万美元还不盈利

108
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我之所以不盈利的原因是

109
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你知道的

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当你进入我的预测模型

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哦

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我现在不调出来了

113
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但当你查看我的预测模型

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amd股票将进入基准预测

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最低目标是1200美元对吧

116
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我们还没到一半呢

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对了再看我的乐观基准

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未来几年可能达到1600美元

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如果看我的激进预测

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目标是2000美元以上对吧

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故事的核心在于

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我们正朝着正确方向前进

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但随着股价不断上涨

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我会更想分批兑现部分股份

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不过我们还有更多

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这里还有大量潜力可挖

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股票在某些阶段我会觉得

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嗯

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可能已经榨不出多少油了

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amd在我看来仍有巨大潜力

131
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我可能错了

132
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但我觉得是对的然后啊

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以amd为例

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我们还没看到所有季度的惊喜

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预计在接下来两个季度发生

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我们将迎来连续利好

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指引

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这会让所有人震惊

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什么

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他们刚公布的指引数据是什么

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接下来几个季度还会出现惊人利润率

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所以你知道的

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这通常是股票飙升的时刻

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没错它会疯狂上涨

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还有大量资金在跟进

146
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现在amd仍有充满乐趣的行情

147
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当然总存在风险比如

148
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如果整个市场下跌

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如果整个市场崩盘

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一切都会随之下跌

151
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但你看一下AMD

152
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即使是强劲的行情啊或者抱歉

153
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市场中的弱势日

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股价依然强劲无比

155
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看看昨天

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完美的例子

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昨天市场在交易日结束时暴跌悬崖

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没错直接跌下悬崖而AMD仍收红

159
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并非如此

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我们正在关注META的大仓位

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亚马逊还有很长的增长空间

162
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你知道的META和亚马逊

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这两只股票需要重点关注

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目前被压制了

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短期内仍将被压制

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主要因为巨额开支

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人们对投资回报率很不确定

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什么回报率

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这些开支最终会见效

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没错未来几年将出现巨额折旧

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这会拖累每股收益

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需谨记这一点

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因此META和亚马逊的每股收益增长可能不如预期

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我不这么认为

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我会说

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几乎可以肯定每股收益增长会极弱

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相比往年

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因为他们的支出

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这就是数学问题

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只需计算数字

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所以人们有些困惑

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我认为人们在这里有些误判

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关于META和亚马逊

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微软

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好的

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听着

187
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我得解释这个

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过去几个月已多次解释过

189
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但人们似乎没理解

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好的

191
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让我解释一下

192
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人们观察这些股票

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觉得估值太低了

194
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看看增长率

195
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我说啊

196
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我的收入增长达30%

197
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市盈率20倍

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人们会说

199
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这不是史上最佳投资吗

200
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接下来几年的问题

201
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Meta在这些芯片上投入了巨额资金

202
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这些设备需要计提折旧

203
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他们提到折旧周期大概在五到六年之间

204
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因此不需要在一年内全部计提折旧

205
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如果你要花费一百亿美元购买芯片

206
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不需要在当年全部计提折旧

207
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可能分五年完成

208
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每年相当于二十亿美元的折旧费用

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没错

210
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问题是他们去年投入了巨额资金

211
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今年又进一步增加投入

212
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明年可能还会继续增加

213
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折旧数字开始累积成负担

214
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这些数字开始累积成重负

215
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这将影响未来几年每股收益的增长

216
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因此未来几年的每股收益增速会受压制

217
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这只是需要留意的一个点

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好的

219
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这些都是优质投资标的

220
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长期看Meta和亚马逊

221
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长期来看是优质投资

222
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但短期内不要过度炒作这些股票

223
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并不意味着它们不能爆发行情

224
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它们可能会

225
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但你知道折旧压力会很大

226
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好的

227
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这纯粹是数学问题

228
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这纯粹是相关计算问题

229
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好的

230
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这是需要注意的两点股票风险

231
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好的

232
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芝士蛋糕工厂

233
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哦

234
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这只股票还能继续上涨吗

235
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看芝士蛋糕股价已涨至120

236
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千元芝士蛋糕概念强势拉升

237
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你需要扪心自问

238
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谁知道会怎样

239
00:07:36,548 --> 00:07:37,689
谁知道原因

240
00:07:37,689 --> 00:07:39,449
芝士蛋糕发生了什么

241
00:07:39,449 --> 00:07:43,168
这种强势简直难以置信

242
00:07:43,168 --> 00:07:44,668
开始显得有些蹊跷

243
00:07:44,668 --> 00:07:45,569
不是吗

244
00:07:45,569 --> 00:07:46,050
这

245
00:07:46,050 --> 00:07:49,709
几乎感觉有人在大幅建仓

246
00:07:49,709 --> 00:07:52,029
我不是说几百万美元

247
00:07:52,029 --> 00:07:52,970
没错

248
00:07:52,970 --> 00:07:57,170
而是可能数千万美元的仓位

249
00:07:57,170 --> 00:08:01,259
有人在大量买入芝士蛋糕工厂股票

250
00:08:01,259 --> 00:08:04,189
也许他们终于看准了

251
00:08:04,189 --> 00:08:04,649
啊

252
00:08:04,649 --> 00:08:08,439
他们有两个即将席卷全美的发展概念

253
00:08:08,439 --> 00:08:09,660
在未来五到十年内

254
00:08:09,660 --> 00:08:12,100
在北部的花童可能开始意识到

255
00:08:12,100 --> 00:08:16,129
哦糟糕 他们好像有两个赢家鸡尾酒套餐要席卷市场

256
00:08:16,410 --> 00:08:17,490
也许这正在起效

257
00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:17,850
所以

258
00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:19,769
也许他们开始理解了

259
00:08:19,769 --> 00:08:23,680
但感觉有大买家在背后

260
00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,920
因为股价实在太强劲了

261
00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,180
日复一日都是这样

262
00:08:28,180 --> 00:08:29,120
太强势了

263
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:29,930
嗯

264
00:08:29,930 --> 00:08:32,210
你知道 在好日子里

265
00:08:32,210 --> 00:08:33,309
股票暴涨

266
00:08:33,309 --> 00:08:34,049
在坏日子里

267
00:08:34,049 --> 00:08:34,490
它反而上涨

268
00:08:34,490 --> 00:08:34,970
我是说

269
00:08:34,970 --> 00:08:35,250
你知道的

270
00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:37,529
看看今天市场上涨了三点

271
00:08:37,529 --> 00:08:38,049
百分之六

272
00:08:38,049 --> 00:08:38,250
不

273
00:08:38,250 --> 00:08:38,970
差得远呢

274
00:08:38,970 --> 00:08:40,490
但芝士蛋糕还在飙升

275
00:08:40,490 --> 00:08:41,490
正在强势上涨

276
00:08:41,490 --> 00:08:42,000
对吧

277
00:08:43,519 --> 00:08:46,340
我已建仓相当大的仓位

278
00:08:46,340 --> 00:08:47,039
难道不是吗

279
00:08:47,039 --> 00:08:47,480
你知道的

280
00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,019
我们还没明显获利

281
00:08:49,019 --> 00:08:50,200
只有三百多美元

282
00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,059
在公开账户几乎算零

283
00:08:52,059 --> 00:08:52,639
对吧

284
00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:55,080
我已建仓成重要仓位

285
00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:55,879
这是四

286
00:08:55,879 --> 00:08:57,000
加上整个投资组合

287
00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,000
我对美国运通很有信心多年了

288
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,440
未来关于耐克团队

289
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:02,919
如果我对耐克判断正确

290
00:09:02,919 --> 00:09:04,879
我认为最终会是对的

291
00:09:04,879 --> 00:09:05,799
关于耐克方面

292
00:09:05,799 --> 00:09:06,839
也许会错

293
00:09:06,839 --> 00:09:08,239
我在市场十八年了

294
00:09:08,239 --> 00:09:09,938
错过的股票不在少数

295
00:09:09,938 --> 00:09:10,879
但该死的

296
00:09:10,879 --> 00:09:11,839
我至少对某些事正确

297
00:09:11,839 --> 00:09:14,590
哼 我觉得我会对耐克正确

298
00:09:14,590 --> 00:09:16,960
当耐克启动上涨行情时

299
00:09:17,279 --> 00:09:18,000
我的天啊

300
00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:19,340
这对我的投资组合意味着什么

301
00:09:19,340 --> 00:09:22,659
我的投资组合里全是耐克股票

302
00:09:22,659 --> 00:09:24,639
我说的是私人投资组合

303
00:09:24,639 --> 00:09:26,269
当然还有公开账户

304
00:09:26,269 --> 00:09:28,070
Patreon和投资组合

305
00:09:28,070 --> 00:09:31,090
我耳朵里都塞满了耐克股票

306
00:09:31,090 --> 00:09:32,169
所以如果耐克股价

307
00:09:32,169 --> 00:09:32,409
什么

308
00:09:32,409 --> 00:09:34,990
我觉得它会继续大涨

309
00:09:34,990 --> 00:09:36,549
这将是多年的上涨行情

310
00:09:36,549 --> 00:09:37,529
天啊

311
00:09:37,529 --> 00:09:38,889
这会非常有趣

312
00:09:38,889 --> 00:09:41,129
而且耐克还有其他优质部分

313
00:09:41,129 --> 00:09:42,328
它是一只分红股票

314
00:09:42,328 --> 00:09:44,469
耐克的另一大优势是

315
00:09:44,469 --> 00:09:45,048
这本身就是一只好股票

316
00:09:45,048 --> 00:09:47,909
我可以安心持有十年二十年

317
00:09:47,909 --> 00:09:49,129
不像

318
00:09:49,129 --> 00:09:50,490
有一天我会突然

319
00:09:50,490 --> 00:09:50,850
哦

320
00:09:50,850 --> 00:09:52,330
我不能再持有耐克了

321
00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:54,210
绝不可能

322
00:09:54,210 --> 00:09:58,409
我觉得未来几十年持有耐克都毫无压力

323
00:09:58,409 --> 00:09:59,870
所以啊

324
00:09:59,870 --> 00:10:02,730
这是一个只会越来越成功的品牌

325
00:10:05,129 --> 00:10:07,970
他们将在本十年结束

326
00:10:08,289 --> 00:10:10,309
比上一十年更成功

327
00:10:10,309 --> 00:10:11,549
在上一十年

328
00:10:11,549 --> 00:10:14,009
他们比上一十年更成功

329
00:10:14,009 --> 00:10:14,549
依此类推

330
00:10:14,549 --> 00:10:15,610
所以你知道的

331
00:10:15,610 --> 00:10:16,309
耐克拥有这些

332
00:10:16,309 --> 00:10:18,220
这些周期性阶段

333
00:10:18,220 --> 00:10:18,899
你知道的

334
00:10:18,899 --> 00:10:19,980
一年或几年时间

335
00:10:19,980 --> 00:10:21,200
股价可能会下跌

336
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,399
人们质疑

337
00:10:22,399 --> 00:10:23,340
等等

338
00:10:23,340 --> 00:10:28,269
但每个十年末它都会比前十年更强

339
00:10:28,269 --> 00:10:30,210
而这正是我们将要看到的

340
00:10:30,210 --> 00:10:31,190
在我看来

341
00:10:31,190 --> 00:10:32,129
我可能错了

342
00:10:32,129 --> 00:10:36,250
我认为我关于耐克的判断是正确的，所以啊

343
00:10:36,250 --> 00:10:38,599
这对我的投资组合意味着什么

344
00:10:38,599 --> 00:10:39,639
因为耐克

345
00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:41,379
目前一直是个拖累

346
00:10:41,379 --> 00:10:41,859
没错

347
00:10:41,859 --> 00:10:43,418
一直是个拖累

348
00:10:43,418 --> 00:10:48,578
所以当突然间巨额亏损转为盈亏平衡

349
00:10:48,778 --> 00:10:50,958
然后开始盈利

350
00:10:50,958 --> 00:10:51,899
天啊

351
00:10:51,899 --> 00:10:54,099
这对收益曲线意味着什么

352
00:10:54,099 --> 00:10:55,950
这个投资组合简直疯狂啊

353
00:10:55,950 --> 00:10:57,009
服务用的密封件

354
00:10:57,009 --> 00:10:59,929
这些股票仍在消化行情

355
00:10:59,929 --> 00:11:01,830
关注这些SaaS股票

356
00:11:02,950 --> 00:11:05,629
SaaS股票何时才能稳定下来

357
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:11,240
我的猜测是当芯片周期到来时

358
00:11:12,659 --> 00:11:17,568
当围绕芯片周期的热度消退时

359
00:11:17,568 --> 00:11:21,089
那时资金将开始转向SaaS相关公司

360
00:11:21,089 --> 00:11:25,179
因为这些将是长期巨大受益者

361
00:11:25,179 --> 00:11:26,279
至少在我的观点中

362
00:11:26,279 --> 00:11:29,200
关于大量资本投入的

363
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,659
像Salesforce这样的公司将大幅受益

364
00:11:31,659 --> 00:11:34,100
像ServiceNow这样的公司也将大幅受益

365
00:11:34,100 --> 00:11:34,440
没错

366
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,559
还有许多其他公司

367
00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,220
这就是我的看法

368
00:11:39,220 --> 00:11:42,100
基于这些公司的

369
00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:44,899
他们过去几年推出的产品

370
00:11:44,899 --> 00:11:48,539
他们在企业领域推动的方向

371
00:11:48,539 --> 00:11:51,490
我认为他们将在那里建立重要业务

372
00:11:51,490 --> 00:11:53,889
我认为这些将是AI的显著受益者

373
00:11:53,889 --> 00:11:55,039
在短期内

374
00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:57,200
人们都盯着这些股票

375
00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,159
被AI彻底颠覆了

376
00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:01,929
没错就像负面情绪

377
00:12:01,929 --> 00:12:04,610
股票面临的负面情绪

378
00:12:04,610 --> 00:12:07,950
但未来几年人们会意识到

379
00:12:07,950 --> 00:12:08,350
嘿

380
00:12:08,350 --> 00:12:11,519
这些公司将迎来巨大机遇

381
00:12:11,519 --> 00:12:14,179
我们拭目以待

382
00:12:14,179 --> 00:12:16,620
因此我认为股票何时

383
00:12:16,620 --> 00:12:23,000
我认为至少未来六到九个月可加仓SaaS

384
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:23,379
股票

385
00:12:23,379 --> 00:12:25,059
如果人们看好Service

386
00:12:25,059 --> 00:12:26,820
现在人们看好Salesforce

387
00:12:26,820 --> 00:12:28,289
这类公司对吧

388
00:12:28,289 --> 00:12:31,809
未来六到九个月持续增持

389
00:12:31,809 --> 00:12:35,950
增持股份建立重要仓位

390
00:12:40,259 --> 00:12:40,739
你认为正确吗

391
00:12:40,739 --> 00:12:41,278
或者你错了

392
00:12:41,278 --> 00:12:44,940
因此我相信这些股票潜力巨大

393
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:47,120
未来将是巨大受益者

394
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,059
比如五到十年甚至十五年

395
00:12:49,059 --> 00:12:53,559
但短期内无法过度炒作股价

396
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,720
作为长期投资者若相信这些公司

397
00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:57,879
可以逐步构建仓位

398
00:12:57,879 --> 00:12:59,639
在投资组合中持续扩大规模

399
00:12:59,639 --> 00:13:02,960
准备好在接下来的几年里 hopefully 享受乐趣

400
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,100
没错 这就是我喜欢在投资组合中操作的方式

401
00:13:05,100 --> 00:13:06,519
我喜欢逐步增持这些仓位

402
00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:11,019
在一段时间内逐步增持这些股票 并不断壮大它们

403
00:13:11,019 --> 00:13:12,399
我们不会一次性全部投入

404
00:13:12,399 --> 00:13:13,889
或者类似这样的操作对吧

405
00:13:13,889 --> 00:13:15,409
更大声一点

406
00:13:15,409 --> 00:13:16,250
再大声说一遍

407
00:13:16,250 --> 00:13:17,450
这只股票现在上涨了

408
00:13:17,450 --> 00:13:17,690
呃

409
00:13:17,690 --> 00:13:18,970
那里有二万八千美元

410
00:13:18,970 --> 00:13:21,090
所以这个还处于非常早期阶段

411
00:13:21,090 --> 00:13:24,000
记得哦 这只股票以前像耐克

412
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:25,139
对我来说之前

413
00:13:25,139 --> 00:13:26,940
当时股价大幅下跌

414
00:13:26,940 --> 00:13:29,480
股价走势看起来很糟糕

415
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:30,679
然后转眼间

416
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:31,320
我们回本了

417
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,559
然后开始盈利

418
00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,318
之后持续不断发展壮大

419
00:13:36,318 --> 00:13:38,859
这个未来几年仍有长期增长空间

420
00:13:38,859 --> 00:13:39,798
在未来的发展中

421
00:13:39,798 --> 00:13:42,679
这确实是市场中的绝佳机会

422
00:13:43,879 --> 00:13:45,940
这只股票我多次公开持有

423
00:13:45,940 --> 00:13:46,899
我认为今年就会退出

424
00:13:46,899 --> 00:13:48,019
五美元以上

425
00:13:48,019 --> 00:13:50,860
我真心相信我们可能会看到 我可能错了对吧

426
00:13:50,860 --> 00:13:52,559
但我觉得今年就会退出

427
00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:53,659
我们在五美元以上

428
00:13:53,659 --> 00:13:57,169
接下来几年我们将延续这波势头

429
00:13:57,169 --> 00:13:58,309
你知道的

430
00:13:58,309 --> 00:13:59,429
时间在流逝

431
00:13:59,429 --> 00:14:01,090
看起来越来越正确

432
00:14:01,090 --> 00:14:02,940
下一季度财报应该不错

433
00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:07,039
下一季度在利润率和盈利能力上会更好

434
00:14:07,039 --> 00:14:09,740
就有机增长而言

435
00:14:09,740 --> 00:14:13,279
所以留意 Honest Celsius

436
00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:14,600
天啊是 Celsius

437
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:15,320
绝佳的投资机会

438
00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:16,679
这有点像 SaaS 股

439
00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:17,360
股票情况

440
00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:18,779
人们会乐在其中

441
00:14:18,779 --> 00:14:21,389
长期持有持续建设

442
00:14:21,389 --> 00:14:22,889
逐步扩展这些仓位

443
00:14:22,889 --> 00:14:24,610
其实就像 Costco

444
00:14:24,610 --> 00:14:25,250
昨天

445
00:14:25,250 --> 00:14:28,970
查看 Celsius 展示并关注新品

446
00:14:28,970 --> 00:14:29,450
呃

447
00:14:29,450 --> 00:14:32,549
试图成为 Celsius 的竞争对手等等

448
00:14:32,549 --> 00:14:34,450
对了

449
00:14:35,429 --> 00:14:38,499
我去了Costco买一个四十美元的风扇

450
00:14:38,499 --> 00:14:41,239
结果我花了六百多美元

451
00:14:42,599 --> 00:14:44,158
六百三十四美元

452
00:14:44,158 --> 00:14:47,889
这到底在搞什么鬼啊

453
00:14:47,889 --> 00:14:49,289
天啊，这太离谱了

454
00:14:49,289 --> 00:14:50,490
这可不是开玩笑的

455
00:14:50,490 --> 00:14:51,090
不过啊

456
00:14:51,090 --> 00:14:51,649
摄氏度

457
00:14:51,649 --> 00:14:53,519
长期来看有巨大机会

458
00:14:53,519 --> 00:14:54,659
帕兰蒂泪

459
00:14:54,659 --> 00:14:55,159
你知道的

460
00:14:55,159 --> 00:14:56,629
帕兰蒂赢了赢了

461
00:14:56,629 --> 00:14:57,470
还有一只股票

462
00:14:57,470 --> 00:15:00,169
帕兰蒂简直被血洗了一百

463
00:15:00,169 --> 00:15:00,470
你知道的

464
00:15:00,470 --> 00:15:02,230
股市基本处于历史高点

465
00:15:02,230 --> 00:15:03,090
这难道不对吗

466
00:15:03,090 --> 00:15:05,700
像MU和AMD这样的股票

467
00:15:05,700 --> 00:15:06,840
看起来每天都在上涨

468
00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,349
而帕兰蒂在股价上一塌糊涂

469
00:15:10,349 --> 00:15:11,328
一百二十八

470
00:15:11,328 --> 00:15:13,708
我意思是这只股票几个月前还两百多

471
00:15:13,708 --> 00:15:16,169
这只股票去年还两百多

472
00:15:16,169 --> 00:15:17,870
就像你

473
00:15:17,870 --> 00:15:18,889
看看这只股票

474
00:15:18,889 --> 00:15:19,529
你简直不敢相信

475
00:15:19,529 --> 00:15:21,049
如果市场下跌会怎样

476
00:15:21,049 --> 00:15:21,929
帕兰蒂会去哪里

477
00:15:21,929 --> 00:15:23,549
如果市场下跌的话

478
00:15:23,549 --> 00:15:26,190
如果在上涨行情中表现这么差

479
00:15:26,190 --> 00:15:27,789
听着帕莱罗

480
00:15:27,789 --> 00:15:28,529
开始上涨

481
00:15:28,529 --> 00:15:31,190
当所有其他SaaS股票上涨时

482
00:15:31,190 --> 00:15:31,649
没错

483
00:15:31,649 --> 00:15:32,690
我的个人观点

484
00:15:32,690 --> 00:15:34,590
那时它会再次获得动量

485
00:15:34,590 --> 00:15:36,250
但我曾警告过帕兰蒂

486
00:15:36,250 --> 00:15:39,860
我上次在这种情况警告帕兰蒂是什么时候

487
00:15:39,860 --> 00:15:41,299
所以我卖掉了大量股份

488
00:15:41,299 --> 00:15:41,679
我说

489
00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:43,700
帕兰蒂的估值过高

490
00:15:43,700 --> 00:15:45,120
将会出现这种情况

491
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,059
人们必须正视这个问题

492
00:15:47,059 --> 00:15:51,119
收入增长最终会开始放缓

493
00:15:51,119 --> 00:15:53,839
从85%的收入增长

494
00:15:53,839 --> 00:15:55,159
降至70%

495
00:15:55,159 --> 00:15:56,480
然后降至60%

496
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:57,759
再降至50%

497
00:15:57,759 --> 00:15:58,019
没错

498
00:15:58,019 --> 00:15:59,440
增长速度依然很出色

499
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,259
但对投资者来说，这确实很难消化

500
00:16:02,259 --> 00:16:04,169
当这些增长率开始萎缩时

501
00:16:04,169 --> 00:16:04,529
正在萎缩

502
00:16:04,529 --> 00:16:08,269
正在萎缩，尤其是当你脱离这些离谱的数据时

503
00:16:08,269 --> 00:16:09,429
他们最近一直在发布这些数据

504
00:16:09,429 --> 00:16:12,240
所以这就是现状

505
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:12,820
你知道的

506
00:16:12,820 --> 00:16:13,289
嗯

507
00:16:13,289 --> 00:16:14,730
但Palantir是一家伟大的公司

508
00:16:14,730 --> 00:16:16,870
他们显然在市场上有优质产品

509
00:16:16,870 --> 00:16:20,250
公司未来数年仍将蓬勃发展

510
00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:22,089
所以是的

511
00:16:22,089 --> 00:16:23,269
Palantir

512
00:16:23,269 --> 00:16:23,889
呃

513
00:16:23,889 --> 00:16:24,609
PayPal

514
00:16:24,609 --> 00:16:25,408
这只股票

515
00:16:26,568 --> 00:16:28,960
你知道它非常便宜

516
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:30,419
这就是我们能说的关于这只股票的一切

517
00:16:30,419 --> 00:16:31,599
这是一只非常便宜的股票

518
00:16:31,599 --> 00:16:32,938
不像84倍市盈率

519
00:16:32,938 --> 00:16:33,739
但你知道的

520
00:16:33,739 --> 00:16:34,859
总有一天我们会理顺的

521
00:16:34,859 --> 00:16:36,239
也许我们之前已经讨论过服务业务

522
00:16:36,239 --> 00:16:38,820
现在这是市场上最好的机会之一

523
00:16:38,820 --> 00:16:39,580
对于小盘股而言

524
00:16:39,580 --> 00:16:40,820
在我看来是优质股票

525
00:16:40,820 --> 00:16:42,100
顶级利润表

526
00:16:42,100 --> 00:16:43,259
顶级资产负债表

527
00:16:43,259 --> 00:16:44,980
看看最新的季度财报

528
00:16:44,980 --> 00:16:47,340
这里有出色的利润表和资产负债表

529
00:16:47,340 --> 00:16:48,159
无可争议

530
00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:49,220
无可争议

531
00:16:49,220 --> 00:16:50,559
数据非常亮眼

532
00:16:50,559 --> 00:16:52,750
这家公司的管理团队非常优秀

533
00:16:52,750 --> 00:16:54,350
他们拥有强大的客户基础

534
00:16:54,350 --> 00:16:54,669
太

535
00:16:54,669 --> 00:16:57,549
在网站上投入大量资金

536
00:16:57,549 --> 00:17:00,129
因此这是一家细分领域公司

537
00:17:00,129 --> 00:17:00,609
但兄弟

538
00:17:00,609 --> 00:17:01,149
这是一只

539
00:17:01,149 --> 00:17:01,989
这是一只赢家

540
00:17:01,989 --> 00:17:02,948
这是一只大块肉

541
00:17:02,948 --> 00:17:03,528
没错

542
00:17:03,528 --> 00:17:06,240
巨大的长期机会

543
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:07,319
他们处于一个

544
00:17:07,319 --> 00:17:09,799
未来十年有望成为金融巨头

545
00:17:09,799 --> 00:17:12,779
拥有这样的机会非常令人兴奋

546
00:17:12,779 --> 00:17:13,279
没错

547
00:17:13,279 --> 00:17:15,420
谷歌麦当劳的股票依然只是股票

548
00:17:15,420 --> 00:17:17,279
人们想持有他们的数据

549
00:17:17,279 --> 00:17:18,559
伟大的圣诞老人架子精灵

550
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:20,680
拥有长期投资的巨大机会

551
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:21,799
网飞公司

552
00:17:21,799 --> 00:17:25,069
这是我最新的买入标的啊

553
00:17:25,069 --> 00:17:25,630
我们来谈谈这个

554
00:17:25,630 --> 00:17:28,009
这正是我目前前三买入之一

555
00:17:28,009 --> 00:17:31,839
然后波波在两个弯道

556
00:17:31,839 --> 00:17:32,700
这支股票

557
00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:34,940
不过就这一个来说不算太好看

558
00:17:34,940 --> 00:17:39,789
但财务状况是成立以来最好的

559
00:17:39,789 --> 00:17:40,750
我投资这家公司

560
00:17:40,750 --> 00:17:44,509
但总有一天或许会获得一些

561
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,480
让我们谈谈吉姆·查诺斯

562
00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:47,299
让我们谈谈这个市场

563
00:17:47,299 --> 00:17:48,500
让我们谈谈我的投资机会

564
00:17:48,500 --> 00:17:49,960
我对SpaceX的看法

565
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,990
然后我们将进入前三股票

566
00:17:52,990 --> 00:17:56,690
华尔街普遍谨慎的观点

567
00:17:56,690 --> 00:17:58,329
吉姆·查诺斯很荣幸邀请你

568
00:17:58,329 --> 00:17:59,769
让我直入主题

569
00:17:59,769 --> 00:18:03,390
什么特征让SpaceX独特

570
00:18:03,390 --> 00:18:07,329
让你想起安然公司哈哈

571
00:18:07,329 --> 00:18:08,250
别急着下结论

572
00:18:08,250 --> 00:18:09,210
一个翻转和翻转煎饼

573
00:18:09,210 --> 00:18:12,909
他们突然把SpaceX和安然放在一起

574
00:18:12,909 --> 00:18:14,449
这有点不尊重

575
00:18:14,449 --> 00:18:15,369
天啊

576
00:18:15,369 --> 00:18:15,829
嗯

577
00:18:15,829 --> 00:18:18,230
我不觉得像安然汤姆

578
00:18:18,230 --> 00:18:20,750
但让我想起安然时期

579
00:18:20,750 --> 00:18:22,529
这样对吗

580
00:18:22,529 --> 00:18:25,390
我一直说华尔街也有印钞机

581
00:18:25,390 --> 00:18:26,349
就像美联储一样

582
00:18:26,349 --> 00:18:28,388
只是需要时间启动

583
00:18:28,388 --> 00:18:32,368
我认为SpaceX正在引领

584
00:18:32,368 --> 00:18:36,240
2026年将大规模增发股票

585
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:42,299
在二十世纪和二十一世纪

586
00:18:42,299 --> 00:18:46,549
每当出现大规模IPO和配售

587
00:18:46,549 --> 00:18:49,640
相对于市场或经济规模

588
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:55,599
投资者通常建议谨慎或降低风险

589
00:18:55,599 --> 00:18:57,380
在1999年

590
00:18:57,380 --> 00:18:58,369
2000年

591
00:18:59,450 --> 00:19:02,829
2021年上半年

592
00:19:02,829 --> 00:19:05,559
在 meme 股和 SPAC 狂热期间

593
00:19:05,559 --> 00:19:08,640
我们将在2026年打破纪录

594
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,359
在IPO和配售方面

595
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,160
而SpaceX

596
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,298
当然会以重磅姿态引领

597
00:19:15,298 --> 00:19:17,499
但我们将看到OpenAI和Anthropic

598
00:19:17,499 --> 00:19:18,829
以及可能的其他公司

599
00:19:18,829 --> 00:19:20,349
所以我们即将打破纪录

600
00:19:20,349 --> 00:19:23,450
而且它正在告诉你此刻

601
00:19:23,450 --> 00:19:25,190
供应正在满足需求

602
00:19:25,710 --> 00:19:27,789
顺便说一句，这已经是23年来首次

603
00:19:27,789 --> 00:19:29,289
24年和25年

604
00:19:29,289 --> 00:19:31,269
但现在我们看到了26年的情况

605
00:19:31,269 --> 00:19:32,769
我看着吉姆·钱斯在这里

606
00:19:32,769 --> 00:19:34,869
我们在这里有充足的时间

607
00:19:34,869 --> 00:19:35,329
是的

608
00:19:35,329 --> 00:19:36,880
所以我要坦诚

609
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,299
他在这里提出了很好的观点

610
00:19:39,819 --> 00:19:42,400
当你看到许多公司上市

611
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,960
通常是因为市场长期火热

612
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,990
没错，我们现在正是如此，SpaceX即将上市

613
00:19:51,990 --> 00:19:54,190
Anthropic即将很快上市

614
00:19:54,190 --> 00:19:57,750
然后据说紧接着OpenAI也将上市

615
00:19:57,750 --> 00:19:59,509
这些都是巨无霸级的

616
00:19:59,509 --> 00:19:59,990
所有这些

617
00:19:59,990 --> 00:20:00,289
我是说

618
00:20:00,289 --> 00:20:00,710
你知道的

619
00:20:00,710 --> 00:20:03,650
看看SpaceX估值接近两万亿美元

620
00:20:03,650 --> 00:20:04,650
大概在这个区间

621
00:20:04,650 --> 00:20:05,609
Anthropic

622
00:20:05,609 --> 00:20:06,730
他们预计达万亿规模

623
00:20:06,730 --> 00:20:07,269
可能更多

624
00:20:07,269 --> 00:20:08,529
我们拭目以待Open

625
00:20:08,529 --> 00:20:08,809
AI

626
00:20:08,809 --> 00:20:09,730
他们预计达万亿规模

627
00:20:09,730 --> 00:20:10,250
可能更多

628
00:20:10,250 --> 00:20:11,569
我们拭目以待

629
00:20:11,569 --> 00:20:15,430
这些是史诗级的IPO

630
00:20:15,430 --> 00:20:19,390
这种情况只在市场表现极佳时发生

631
00:20:19,390 --> 00:20:21,339
当市场长期表现优异时

632
00:20:21,339 --> 00:20:23,339
通常可能意味着短期顶部

633
00:20:23,339 --> 00:20:24,339
如果我们遭遇市场短期顶部

634
00:20:24,339 --> 00:20:27,759
未来六个月内触及市场短期顶部

635
00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:29,180
随后出现下跌周期

636
00:20:29,180 --> 00:20:30,079
然后从中恢复

637
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:31,220
我现在不会感到意外

638
00:20:31,220 --> 00:20:32,970
这只是可能发生的情况

639
00:20:32,970 --> 00:20:33,710
但这并不意味着

640
00:20:33,710 --> 00:20:34,970
我们应该计划这种情况发生

641
00:20:34,970 --> 00:20:36,509
并等待买入股票时机

642
00:20:36,509 --> 00:20:38,109
直到出现某种债务信号

643
00:20:38,109 --> 00:20:38,579
不

644
00:20:38,579 --> 00:20:40,299
现在就应该买入

645
00:20:40,299 --> 00:20:41,380
如果有机会的话

646
00:20:41,380 --> 00:20:42,319
再见

647
00:20:42,319 --> 00:20:43,380
因为在这段时间里

648
00:20:43,380 --> 00:20:45,420
假设六个月后

649
00:20:45,420 --> 00:20:46,179
市场顶部

650
00:20:46,179 --> 00:20:46,759
你知道的

651
00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:48,019
假设开启视野

652
00:20:48,019 --> 00:20:48,719
艾拉图上市

653
00:20:48,719 --> 00:20:50,479
假设他们六个月后上市

654
00:20:50,479 --> 00:20:52,118
这就像市场的短期顶部

655
00:20:52,118 --> 00:20:56,730
而市场在那时可能下跌15%，也可能随后上涨15%

656
00:20:56,730 --> 00:20:58,390
就像可以出现快速飙升行情

657
00:20:58,390 --> 00:21:04,250
没错，而且我知道我不打算指望市场下跌

658
00:21:04,250 --> 00:21:05,750
我将能在最佳时机买入

659
00:21:05,750 --> 00:21:07,480
像持续定期买入

660
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,160
我每周五都会进行买入操作

661
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:10,160
除非遇到假期

662
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:11,019
比如明天我们就有假期

663
00:21:11,019 --> 00:21:12,839
所以我今天周四完成了今天的买入

664
00:21:12,839 --> 00:21:14,660
我在私密股票群发布了买入信息

665
00:21:14,660 --> 00:21:16,339
我在群组和Patreon上发布了买入记录

666
00:21:16,339 --> 00:21:20,809
没错，所以不要玩那种试图精准择时的把戏

667
00:21:20,809 --> 00:21:23,089
但他提出的问题很有道理

668
00:21:23,089 --> 00:21:26,710
这可能意味着你处于短期高位区域

669
00:21:26,710 --> 00:21:27,910
所以你明白了吧

670
00:21:27,910 --> 00:21:29,910
然后从那里开始进入下行周期

671
00:21:29,910 --> 00:21:31,029
这只是一个问题

672
00:21:31,029 --> 00:21:32,109
是否会迎来小幅回调

673
00:21:32,109 --> 00:21:32,670
大幅回调

674
00:21:32,670 --> 00:21:33,930
是否会引发市场崩盘

675
00:21:33,930 --> 00:21:35,460
正确，会引发市场崩盘

676
00:21:35,460 --> 00:21:38,680
需要很多因素同时出问题

677
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,920
一次容易的小幅回调

678
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:40,279
轻轻松松

679
00:21:40,279 --> 00:21:41,119
柠檬汁

680
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:41,599
呃

681
00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:45,970
在多个可能出现问题的领域出现了大幅修正

682
00:21:45,970 --> 00:21:47,410
有点像二十年二十二年发生的情况

683
00:21:47,410 --> 00:21:48,349
纳斯达克暴跌逾三十

684
00:21:48,349 --> 00:21:48,869
五个百分点

685
00:21:48,869 --> 00:21:49,650
从峰值到谷底

686
00:21:49,650 --> 00:21:54,390
但美联储以近年来最快的速度加息

687
00:21:54,390 --> 00:21:55,150
当然没错

688
00:21:55,150 --> 00:21:59,029
同时通胀率也高得惊人

689
00:21:59,029 --> 00:22:00,069
这是我们之前从未遇到过的

690
00:22:00,069 --> 00:22:01,309
从八十年代开始

691
00:22:01,309 --> 00:22:03,829
没错，你当时经历了盈利衰退

692
00:22:03,829 --> 00:22:05,769
所有事情同时发生

693
00:22:06,130 --> 00:22:08,970
这经历的实在太多了 先生陈

694
00:22:08,970 --> 00:22:10,150
有很多内容要讨论

695
00:22:10,150 --> 00:22:10,369
斯科特

696
00:22:10,369 --> 00:22:10,490
啊

697
00:22:10,490 --> 00:22:14,170
随后经济数据上实际上出现了衰退

698
00:22:14,170 --> 00:22:17,029
但他们没称之为衰退 因为什么荒谬的理由

699
00:22:17,029 --> 00:22:19,369
但你实际上确实经历了技术性衰退

700
00:22:19,369 --> 00:22:20,930
他们并没有称之为衰退

701
00:22:20,930 --> 00:22:22,170
这再次显得非常荒谬

702
00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:23,329
但这发生在2022年

703
00:22:23,329 --> 00:22:25,049
所以有很多事情发生

704
00:22:25,049 --> 00:22:26,589
如果你想讨论

705
00:22:26,589 --> 00:22:26,829
哦

706
00:22:26,829 --> 00:22:30,179
如何让纳斯达克下跌3.5%以上

707
00:22:30,459 --> 00:22:32,398
你需要所有因素正确发挥作用

708
00:22:32,398 --> 00:22:33,159
这是有可能的

709
00:22:33,159 --> 00:22:34,558
但那是一个

710
00:22:34,558 --> 00:22:35,739
这需要很多因素

711
00:22:35,739 --> 00:22:37,098
和金融危机没什么不同

712
00:22:37,098 --> 00:22:39,779
就像需要很多因素

713
00:22:39,779 --> 00:22:41,319
所有事情同时出错

714
00:22:41,319 --> 00:22:42,920
然后你就能看到一些主题

715
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,319
我也有一些主题

716
00:22:44,319 --> 00:22:45,799
埃德·卢德洛联系了我

717
00:22:45,799 --> 00:22:46,559
你看他做得如何

718
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:49,119
卢德洛抢了我的风头

719
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:50,160
你需要这样做

720
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,500
奇诺在考虑新云领域

721
00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:54,059
这就是我们的团队

722
00:22:54,059 --> 00:22:57,259
《纽约时报》前几天的文章

723
00:22:57,259 --> 00:22:59,589
SpaceX值1点八个亿吗

724
00:22:59,589 --> 00:23:01,230
八万亿亿美元

725
00:23:01,230 --> 00:23:04,849
X AI似乎突然改变了商业模式

726
00:23:04,849 --> 00:23:09,420
从开发Grok模型转变为广告平台

727
00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:10,380
低新云战略

728
00:23:10,380 --> 00:23:12,299
整个估值完全依赖于

729
00:23:12,299 --> 00:23:13,759
X AI的进展

730
00:23:13,759 --> 00:23:21,000
新云战略是大宗商品业务，在公开市场估值更低

731
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:22,700
吉姆·奇诺对伊萨克说

732
00:23:22,700 --> 00:23:25,240
以及《纽约时报》的团队

733
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,200
他们在谈论创新

734
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:28,440
但你在预测

735
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:29,819
他们会安全度过

736
00:23:29,819 --> 00:23:30,720
这是位绅士吗

737
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,119
一个巨人

738
00:23:32,910 --> 00:23:34,349
还是奇诺个子小

739
00:23:34,349 --> 00:23:35,390
他看起来像

740
00:23:36,509 --> 00:23:37,529
他肯定是个巨人

741
00:23:37,529 --> 00:23:38,930
我总有一天要见他

742
00:23:38,930 --> 00:23:39,949
天啊

743
00:23:39,949 --> 00:23:41,888
真正有趣的是汤姆

744
00:23:41,888 --> 00:23:43,788
我身高六英尺三

745
00:23:43,788 --> 00:23:46,009
我觉得这家伙有六英尺八

746
00:23:46,289 --> 00:23:47,430
我体重两百多

747
00:23:47,430 --> 00:23:51,579
我觉得他可能有三百五十磅

748
00:23:51,579 --> 00:24:00,789
上周十天前，SpaceX的市场潜力在招股说明书中主要来自X的企业解决方案

749
00:24:00,789 --> 00:24:02,670
我基本上理解了

750
00:24:02,670 --> 00:24:02,990
什么

751
00:24:02,990 --> 00:24:06,009
模型生成的软件

752
00:24:06,009 --> 00:24:09,650
他们反而来了个180度大转弯

753
00:24:09,650 --> 00:24:14,679
并宣布要向Anthropic和谷歌出租我们的算力

754
00:24:14,679 --> 00:24:16,618
这就是新云模式

755
00:24:16,618 --> 00:24:16,878
没错

756
00:24:16,878 --> 00:24:18,679
这就是设备租赁

757
00:24:18,679 --> 00:24:23,000
这在市场上的价值要低得多

758
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,920
比起做模型公司或超大规模云服务商

759
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,699
我们长期跟踪数据中心发展

760
00:24:28,699 --> 00:24:31,098
这本质上是金融业务

761
00:24:31,098 --> 00:24:31,298
你

762
00:24:31,298 --> 00:24:31,499
你

763
00:24:31,499 --> 00:24:33,618
你从英伟达购买芯片

764
00:24:33,618 --> 00:24:34,159
其他人

765
00:24:34,159 --> 00:24:36,338
然后租给Anthropic

766
00:24:36,338 --> 00:24:38,329
这是回报率业务

767
00:24:38,329 --> 00:24:41,019
这不是高科技业务

768
00:24:41,019 --> 00:24:41,599
不过

769
00:24:41,599 --> 00:24:44,779
两万亿中的两

770
00:24:44,779 --> 00:24:51,500
SpaceX的市场潜力九千五百亿基于此业务

771
00:24:51,500 --> 00:24:52,559
好吧

772
00:24:52,559 --> 00:24:54,079
所以在继续之前

773
00:24:54,079 --> 00:24:54,400
你知道的

774
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,528
这是我批评吉姆·钦诺的原因

775
00:24:57,528 --> 00:24:59,469
他会提出好观点

776
00:25:00,868 --> 00:25:04,710
却从过于怀疑的角度分析

777
00:25:04,710 --> 00:25:07,390
导致失去可信度

778
00:25:07,390 --> 00:25:10,529
让我详细解释刚才的情况

779
00:25:10,529 --> 00:25:13,009
没错他提出好观点

780
00:25:13,009 --> 00:25:13,849
比如

781
00:25:13,849 --> 00:25:16,269
SpaceX在出租

782
00:25:16,269 --> 00:25:18,230
他们的芯片

783
00:25:18,230 --> 00:25:19,069
你知道的

784
00:25:19,069 --> 00:25:20,769
获得这种回报率业务

785
00:25:20,769 --> 00:25:21,450
其中

786
00:25:21,450 --> 00:25:24,380
其他公司

787
00:25:24,380 --> 00:25:25,220
可以

788
00:25:25,220 --> 00:25:26,440
你知道的

789
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,920
租用他们的芯片和基础设施

790
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,640
并能使用这些资源

791
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,859
就像他们购买英伟达芯片

792
00:25:33,859 --> 00:25:34,960
完成所有部署

793
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,319
然后转租给他人

794
00:25:36,319 --> 00:25:36,799
所以是的

795
00:25:36,799 --> 00:25:38,450
这就是回报率业务

796
00:25:38,450 --> 00:25:38,849
公平

797
00:25:38,849 --> 00:25:39,690
这是个好观点

798
00:25:39,690 --> 00:25:42,549
但这并非特别激动人心的机会

799
00:25:42,549 --> 00:25:46,719
正如许多其他你应该同时进行的事情一样

800
00:25:46,719 --> 00:25:48,159
但公平地说

801
00:25:48,159 --> 00:25:51,589
这并不意味着他们不能做他们提到的其他事情

802
00:25:51,589 --> 00:25:54,009
所以关于grok以及他们正在尝试做的事情

803
00:25:54,009 --> 00:25:55,589
我挺喜欢x的

804
00:25:55,589 --> 00:25:58,888
但这并不意味着仅仅因为他们出租了一部分容量

805
00:25:58,888 --> 00:26:02,888
他们就不能继续做这些其他伟大的雄心壮志的事

806
00:26:02,888 --> 00:26:04,689
他们可以同时进行两者

807
00:26:04,689 --> 00:26:06,808
并不是因为出租了一部分空间

808
00:26:06,808 --> 00:26:09,150
就表示他们没有机会

809
00:26:09,150 --> 00:26:09,670
比如不

810
00:26:09,670 --> 00:26:11,930
这其实不是这样运作的

811
00:26:11,930 --> 00:26:12,690
所以

812
00:26:12,690 --> 00:26:13,829
嗯

813
00:26:15,009 --> 00:26:15,509
是的

814
00:26:15,509 --> 00:26:16,250
记住这一点

815
00:26:16,250 --> 00:26:17,529
同时你也必须

816
00:26:17,529 --> 00:26:18,329
你知道的

817
00:26:18,329 --> 00:26:20,990
在商业上做得非常非常出色

818
00:26:20,990 --> 00:26:25,440
因此可能存在其他动机

819
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,759
为什么埃隆·马斯克会做这样的事情

820
00:26:27,759 --> 00:26:32,009
也许他故意购买了过多的产能

821
00:26:32,009 --> 00:26:32,529
没错

822
00:26:33,930 --> 00:26:38,029
理解将这些芯片远离竞争对手更好

823
00:26:38,029 --> 00:26:40,150
然后能够出租空间

824
00:26:40,150 --> 00:26:40,950
如果不需要的话

825
00:26:40,950 --> 00:26:42,819
就像你早已计划好这一切

826
00:26:42,819 --> 00:26:43,079
没错

827
00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:44,480
他不会直接告诉你

828
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,079
我特意囤积了英伟达芯片

829
00:26:47,079 --> 00:26:48,640
或者这样做或那样对吧

830
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,480
但不要认为这不是可能的

831
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:53,019
没错

832
00:26:53,019 --> 00:26:54,539
就像他不会

833
00:26:54,539 --> 00:26:59,180
他不会偶然成为万亿富翁

834
00:26:59,549 --> 00:27:01,089
这些都不是偶然发生的

835
00:27:01,089 --> 00:27:01,630
好的

836
00:27:01,630 --> 00:27:05,089
要成为万亿富翁必须非常擅长商业

837
00:27:05,089 --> 00:27:05,650
难道不是吗

838
00:27:05,650 --> 00:27:06,170
好的

839
00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:09,039
这就是吉姆·查诺斯的问题所在

840
00:27:09,039 --> 00:27:10,700
他会提出深刻的观点

841
00:27:10,700 --> 00:27:11,779
非常优雅

842
00:27:11,779 --> 00:27:12,200
你知道的

843
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,650
这样的高见之后

844
00:27:14,650 --> 00:27:16,930
但并未给出完整图景

845
00:27:16,930 --> 00:27:18,069
所以就像这样

846
00:27:18,069 --> 00:27:18,569
很好的观点

847
00:27:18,569 --> 00:27:20,789
然后又会说那另一边呢

848
00:27:20,789 --> 00:27:23,450
这就是这些看空观点的来源

849
00:27:23,450 --> 00:27:24,289
更多的看空者

850
00:27:24,289 --> 00:27:24,930
做空者

851
00:27:24,930 --> 00:27:26,109
这就是他们出错的地方

852
00:27:26,109 --> 00:27:28,569
他们只关注负面

853
00:27:28,569 --> 00:27:30,970
到处都是负面情绪对吧

854
00:27:30,970 --> 00:27:34,220
他们不会从像

855
00:27:34,220 --> 00:27:34,559
好的

856
00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:36,539
但这里还有一个积极的因素我想到

857
00:27:36,539 --> 00:27:36,759
啊

858
00:27:36,759 --> 00:27:38,319
他们不只是在做这件事

859
00:27:38,319 --> 00:27:39,359
他们正在这里做这个

860
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,259
这让我觉得非常非常奇怪

861
00:27:41,259 --> 00:27:43,380
就在ipo之前

862
00:27:43,380 --> 00:27:47,599
他们会转向更低的利润率和更低估值的业务

863
00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:51,818
相比你们提到的那些期望和愿景

864
00:27:51,818 --> 00:27:52,789
我提到过

865
00:27:52,789 --> 00:28:00,029
基于开发这些优秀的ai代理软件产品

866
00:28:00,029 --> 00:28:04,400
这是这个交易中众多令人困惑的地方之一

867
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,099
何时财务现实

868
00:28:07,099 --> 00:28:09,000
你刚才提到的那些事情

869
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,619
拆解数字变得比故事更重要

870
00:28:12,619 --> 00:28:13,400
那些希望和梦想

871
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:14,000
其中一部分

872
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,079
因为这就是马斯克擅长的

873
00:28:16,079 --> 00:28:17,740
这也是人们投资的原因

874
00:28:17,740 --> 00:28:19,359
所以问题在于

875
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,759
这是马斯克溢价吗

876
00:28:21,759 --> 00:28:26,990
是马斯克溢价的两倍还是减半

877
00:28:26,990 --> 00:28:29,930
我认为这才是核心问题

878
00:28:29,930 --> 00:28:32,730
因为有人相信马斯克

879
00:28:32,730 --> 00:28:36,250
并相应推高了特斯拉股价远超

880
00:28:36,250 --> 00:28:40,939
大多数基本面分析师认为的价值因为乐观

881
00:28:40,939 --> 00:28:42,778
机器人和自动驾驶

882
00:28:42,778 --> 00:28:44,109
以及所有这些好东西

883
00:28:44,109 --> 00:28:46,150
现在又有另一个马斯克

884
00:28:46,150 --> 00:28:48,089
比如吉姆·钦尼在做采访

885
00:28:48,089 --> 00:28:48,509
你知道的

886
00:28:48,509 --> 00:28:48,910
你知道的

887
00:28:48,910 --> 00:28:50,670
特斯拉迟早会被提及

888
00:28:50,670 --> 00:28:52,170
你很清楚这些希望和梦想

889
00:28:52,170 --> 00:28:54,869
一家估值更高的公司

890
00:28:54,869 --> 00:28:58,630
那么这是否将价值翻倍

891
00:28:58,630 --> 00:28:59,930
或者这实际上意味着

892
00:28:59,930 --> 00:29:00,190
好吧

893
00:29:00,190 --> 00:29:00,470
嗯

894
00:29:00,470 --> 00:29:01,630
我得选一个

895
00:29:01,630 --> 00:29:02,420
嗯

896
00:29:02,420 --> 00:29:04,339
毕竟

897
00:29:04,339 --> 00:29:07,700
它们都被按运营情况估值

898
00:29:07,700 --> 00:29:08,640
SpaceX

899
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:09,599
我相信

900
00:29:09,599 --> 00:29:10,160
取决于

901
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,119
我在绿室听到的估值现在可能已经达到营收的110倍

902
00:29:14,119 --> 00:29:17,819
而历史告诉我们你永远赚不到多少钱

903
00:29:17,819 --> 00:29:20,400
在营收100倍以上买入股票

904
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,799
是的，这就是吉姆·钱斯的致命缺陷

905
00:29:23,799 --> 00:29:25,119
你刚才看到的这些

906
00:29:25,119 --> 00:29:29,549
好的，这正是你不应陷入的致命陷阱

907
00:29:29,549 --> 00:29:30,390
他关注的是

908
00:29:30,390 --> 00:29:34,150
特斯拉可以像看待SpaceX那样认为这种估值很荒谬

909
00:29:34,150 --> 00:29:37,118
当然大家也都同意

910
00:29:37,118 --> 00:29:37,558
是的

911
00:29:37,558 --> 00:29:39,239
这很愚蠢

912
00:29:39,239 --> 00:29:43,278
但你知道大多数埃隆·马斯克的公司

913
00:29:43,278 --> 00:29:43,499
像

914
00:29:43,499 --> 00:29:45,058
它们就是自成一派

915
00:29:45,058 --> 00:29:45,499
好的

916
00:29:45,499 --> 00:29:47,599
它们会以荒谬的价格交易

917
00:29:47,599 --> 00:29:49,039
交易12个月预期

918
00:29:49,039 --> 00:29:50,880
将以荒谬的前瞻市盈率交易

919
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,680
将以荒谬的

920
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:53,839
两年期前瞻市盈率交易

921
00:29:53,839 --> 00:29:55,940
将以荒谬的市销率交易

922
00:29:55,940 --> 00:29:58,929
两年期前瞻市销率

923
00:29:59,128 --> 00:30:00,709
这就是埃隆·马斯克的公司

924
00:30:00,709 --> 00:30:03,169
这些公司往往充满炒作

925
00:30:03,169 --> 00:30:04,469
大量热情

926
00:30:04,469 --> 00:30:05,088
嗯

927
00:30:05,088 --> 00:30:06,628
许多人都觉得

928
00:30:06,628 --> 00:30:09,420
我要买下它带到坟墓

929
00:30:09,420 --> 00:30:12,079
我要把这些股份传给下一代

930
00:30:12,079 --> 00:30:15,200
几乎像比特币思维

931
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,289
没错，所以

932
00:30:17,289 --> 00:30:20,789
他总擅长描绘长期愿景

933
00:30:20,789 --> 00:30:22,329
关于我们未来能做什么

934
00:30:22,329 --> 00:30:23,509
你知道的

935
00:30:23,509 --> 00:30:25,950
十年后甚至二十年后

936
00:30:25,950 --> 00:30:27,170
这类事情

937
00:30:27,170 --> 00:30:29,390
这让人们为未来感到兴奋

938
00:30:29,390 --> 00:30:32,818
因此他们喜欢买入股票长期持有

939
00:30:32,818 --> 00:30:33,219
多年

940
00:30:33,219 --> 00:30:36,359
这使得这些股票难以做空

941
00:30:36,359 --> 00:30:38,440
这也是致命缺陷所在

942
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,940
从传统估值视角看

943
00:30:41,940 --> 00:30:44,480
估值荒谬且业务不佳

944
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:49,460
这只股票必须下跌，这适用于市场大多数股票

945
00:30:49,460 --> 00:30:50,700
但对于埃隆·马斯克的公司

946
00:30:50,700 --> 00:30:52,150
完全是另一回事

947
00:30:52,150 --> 00:30:54,170
需要市场极度悲观

948
00:30:54,170 --> 00:30:56,869
还需这些股票情绪严重恶化

949
00:30:56,869 --> 00:31:00,250
你可以看到SpaceX股价下跌了70%

950
00:31:00,250 --> 00:31:01,829
特斯拉股价也下跌了70%

951
00:31:01,829 --> 00:31:02,990
但你需要同时关注这两者

952
00:31:02,990 --> 00:31:03,789
这就是你在

953
00:31:03,789 --> 00:31:04,549
比如2022年

954
00:31:04,549 --> 00:31:04,990
举个例子

955
00:31:04,990 --> 00:31:05,369
没错

956
00:31:05,369 --> 00:31:06,638
2022年

957
00:31:06,638 --> 00:31:08,298
猜猜特斯拉下跌了多少

958
00:31:08,298 --> 00:31:08,759
你知道的

959
00:31:08,759 --> 00:31:10,078
在那次暴跌中跌了70%

960
00:31:10,078 --> 00:31:13,078
而SpaceX同期下跌了3.5%或略超3.5%

961
00:31:13,078 --> 00:31:13,439
对吧

962
00:31:13,439 --> 00:31:15,558
但特斯拉从峰值到谷底

963
00:31:15,558 --> 00:31:18,710
从2021年峰值到2022年末谷底

964
00:31:18,710 --> 00:31:19,490
进入2023年

965
00:31:19,490 --> 00:31:21,029
就像70%的跌幅

966
00:31:21,029 --> 00:31:24,569
但需要让市场情绪严重看空

967
00:31:24,569 --> 00:31:25,869
实际可能超过70%

968
00:31:25,869 --> 00:31:26,569
如果我没记错的话

969
00:31:26,569 --> 00:31:28,750
市场情绪对特斯拉极度看空

970
00:31:28,750 --> 00:31:30,369
再加上整个市场暴跌

971
00:31:30,369 --> 00:31:31,960
所以是的

972
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,519
SpaceX也下跌了3.5%以上

973
00:31:34,519 --> 00:31:37,960
市场情绪对SpaceX和特斯拉极度看空

974
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,039
你会看到这两只股票至少下跌50%

975
00:31:41,039 --> 00:31:42,900
甚至70-75%

976
00:31:42,900 --> 00:31:46,369
但必须同时发生这两件事

977
00:31:46,369 --> 00:31:48,529
正如我们所知你本性谨慎

978
00:31:48,529 --> 00:31:49,190
你是一家公司

979
00:31:49,190 --> 00:31:50,470
我叫肯尼科萨

980
00:31:50,470 --> 00:31:51,069
持怀疑态度

981
00:31:51,069 --> 00:31:53,779
你不是SpaceX或特斯拉的多头

982
00:31:53,779 --> 00:31:55,809
或完全看好马斯克

983
00:31:55,809 --> 00:31:57,910
SpaceX有什么值得肯定的

984
00:31:57,910 --> 00:32:00,970
财务数据或马斯克的公司管理

985
00:32:00,970 --> 00:32:02,430
你能说做得不错的地方

986
00:32:02,430 --> 00:32:02,730
听着

987
00:32:02,730 --> 00:32:04,789
我认为星链是真正有前景的业务

988
00:32:05,109 --> 00:32:07,150
我们可以重新审视他们的业务

989
00:32:07,150 --> 00:32:07,710
我们必须继续

990
00:32:07,710 --> 00:32:09,369
从不同视角分析

991
00:32:09,369 --> 00:32:10,549
星链确实是真实存在的业务

992
00:32:10,549 --> 00:32:11,589
正在增长

993
00:32:11,589 --> 00:32:13,430
预计将继续增长

994
00:32:13,430 --> 00:32:14,829
尽管增速在放缓

995
00:32:14,829 --> 00:32:18,150
发射业务运营22年仍亏损

996
00:32:18,150 --> 00:32:22,490
作为同样持悲观观点的

997
00:32:22,490 --> 00:32:22,970
半杯水

998
00:32:24,130 --> 00:32:25,170
你知道参与者们

999
00:32:25,170 --> 00:32:27,429
如果我没有指出火箭

1000
00:32:27,429 --> 00:32:34,269
所有这一切都取决于星舰至今在十二次任务中仍未实现地球轨道

1001
00:32:34,269 --> 00:32:37,440
而这其中一半任务出现了某种事故

1002
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,779
所有这些都至关重要

1003
00:32:40,779 --> 00:32:43,539
我认为星链是一项真正的商业

1004
00:32:43,539 --> 00:32:46,589
它价值数百亿美元

1005
00:32:46,589 --> 00:32:48,269
但但这是个大

1006
00:32:48,269 --> 00:32:49,170
嘿嘿

1007
00:32:49,170 --> 00:32:49,470
嘿

1008
00:32:49,470 --> 00:32:49,809
嘿

1009
00:32:49,809 --> 00:32:50,410
嘿

1010
00:32:50,410 --> 00:32:51,409
哇

1011
00:32:51,409 --> 00:32:52,909
这是个重大声明

1012
00:32:52,909 --> 00:32:54,848
悲观主义者吉姆·钱诺斯说

1013
00:32:54,848 --> 00:32:55,949
仅星链

1014
00:32:55,949 --> 00:32:58,769
它价值数百亿美元

1015
00:33:00,859 --> 00:33:02,059
向星链致敬

1016
00:33:02,059 --> 00:33:05,799
就像吉姆·钱诺斯公开表态

1017
00:33:05,799 --> 00:33:11,599
称星链业务价值数百亿美元

1018
00:33:11,950 --> 00:33:13,230
令人印象深刻

1019
00:33:13,230 --> 00:33:15,309
在十二次任务中进入轨道

1020
00:33:15,309 --> 00:33:18,559
没错，其中一半任务出现事故

1021
00:33:18,559 --> 00:33:21,900
所有这些都至关重要

1022
00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:24,660
我认为星链是一项真正的商业

1023
00:33:24,660 --> 00:33:25,250
它

1024
00:33:25,250 --> 00:33:27,730
它价值数百亿美元

1025
00:33:27,730 --> 00:33:30,230
但但真正的

1026
00:33:30,230 --> 00:33:31,670
真正的希望与梦想

1027
00:33:31,670 --> 00:33:32,250
这里在于

1028
00:33:32,250 --> 00:33:33,029
XAI

1029
00:33:33,029 --> 00:33:33,369
是的

1030
00:33:33,369 --> 00:33:34,269
顺便说一句

1031
00:33:34,269 --> 00:33:38,699
该公司是他们在二月以2500亿美元股票收购的

1032
00:33:38,699 --> 00:33:40,659
如今市场正在重新估值

1033
00:33:40,659 --> 00:33:43,959
彭博电视估值可能超15000亿美元

1034
00:33:43,959 --> 00:33:46,200
我是全球广播电台

1035
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,220
吉姆·钱诺斯今天当然可以加入我们

1036
00:33:48,220 --> 00:33:53,859
在这个华尔街历史时刻及全球观众面前

1037
00:33:53,859 --> 00:33:55,740
所以短队的说法是

1038
00:33:55,740 --> 00:33:56,700
特斯拉 特斯拉

1039
00:33:56,700 --> 00:33:58,699
特斯拉类似太空探索技术公司

1040
00:33:58,699 --> 00:34:02,558
而我享受约5.3%年回报率

1041
00:34:02,558 --> 00:34:04,818
自新冠疫情初期以来

1042
00:34:04,818 --> 00:34:07,720
你知道大约六年前

1043
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:09,000
所以再次

1044
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,159
特斯拉表现更佳

1045
00:34:10,159 --> 00:34:13,199
目前现金流为负

1046
00:34:13,199 --> 00:34:21,449
太空探索技术公司的星舰如何在不提供传统财务报表的情况下持续运营

1047
00:34:21,449 --> 00:34:23,628
我认为你已回答了问题，需要数年

1048
00:34:23,628 --> 00:34:25,889
如果可能的话

1049
00:34:25,889 --> 00:34:32,880
但特斯拉目前的市盈率约为收入的14倍

1050
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,320
没错，它确实有1000亿美元的营收

1051
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:40,260
并在2019年和2020年迅速提升了营收

1052
00:34:40,260 --> 00:34:47,159
因此从营收规模和现金流来看确实存在真实业务

1053
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:47,940
嗯

1054
00:34:47,940 --> 00:34:51,719
它并没有以110倍营收进行交易

1055
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,639
这存在数量级的差异

1056
00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:55,900
我认为这对观众很重要

1057
00:34:55,900 --> 00:34:56,519
我有

1058
00:34:56,519 --> 00:34:57,519
哦天啊

1059
00:34:57,519 --> 00:34:59,320
但先别急着下结论

1060
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:00,809
稍等片刻

1061
00:35:01,130 --> 00:35:03,730
特斯拉远不如SpaceX令人兴奋

1062
00:35:03,730 --> 00:35:05,329
我要坦诚地告诉你

1063
00:35:05,329 --> 00:35:09,869
从投资兴奋度来看，SpaceX已经让特斯拉黯然失色

1064
00:35:09,869 --> 00:35:12,369
如果你在寻找激动人心的投资标的

1065
00:35:12,369 --> 00:35:14,269
SpaceX显然更令人胆战心惊

1066
00:35:14,269 --> 00:35:14,630
令人兴奋

1067
00:35:14,630 --> 00:35:15,130
没错

1068
00:35:15,130 --> 00:35:17,150
现在特斯拉似乎变得平淡了

1069
00:35:17,150 --> 00:35:18,170
相比SpaceX

1070
00:35:18,170 --> 00:35:20,269
SpaceX正在火箭发射

1071
00:35:20,269 --> 00:35:28,050
SpaceX还有庞大人工智能业务，确实更令人兴奋

1072
00:35:28,050 --> 00:35:32,639
SpaceX和特斯拉相比，前者有更多炒作空间

1073
00:35:32,639 --> 00:35:32,998
没错

1074
00:35:32,998 --> 00:35:34,599
特斯拉几乎变得无聊了

1075
00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:35,528
就是这么回事

1076
00:35:35,528 --> 00:35:36,068
他们

1077
00:35:36,068 --> 00:35:38,248
他们最终应该推出自动驾驶出租车

1078
00:35:38,248 --> 00:35:39,048
这算什么大事

1079
00:35:39,048 --> 00:35:41,148
谷歌的Waymo已经做到这点了

1080
00:35:41,148 --> 00:35:41,449
比如

1081
00:35:41,449 --> 00:35:44,429
Waymo已覆盖美国多个主要城市

1082
00:35:44,429 --> 00:35:48,409
为无数乘客提供无人驾驶服务

1083
00:35:48,409 --> 00:35:49,789
穿梭于不同城市之间

1084
00:35:49,789 --> 00:35:53,010
我现在在美国各地多次乘坐过Waymo

1085
00:35:53,010 --> 00:35:53,690
目前阶段

1086
00:35:53,690 --> 00:35:55,958
特斯拉终于要实现了

1087
00:35:55,958 --> 00:35:57,199
但有点像

1088
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:58,619
你已经

1089
00:35:58,619 --> 00:36:00,119
作为第二名

1090
00:36:00,119 --> 00:36:02,019
当这一切真正发生时

1091
00:36:02,019 --> 00:36:04,059
自动驾驶出租车和机器人

1092
00:36:04,059 --> 00:36:05,050
就像

1093
00:36:05,050 --> 00:36:07,530
我会看看后续发展

1094
00:36:07,530 --> 00:36:09,030
人形机器人

1095
00:36:09,030 --> 00:36:12,269
这一直是难以实现的突破

1096
00:36:12,269 --> 00:36:16,050
但看起来仍遥不可及

1097
00:36:16,900 --> 00:36:18,960
机器人通常就是机器人

1098
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,980
制造机器人要容易得多

1099
00:36:20,980 --> 00:36:23,579
这不是人类形态

1100
00:36:23,579 --> 00:36:28,000
制造某种机器形态的机器人会更好

1101
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:33,559
它可以精准执行任务，将这辆车的车门取下并安放在此处

1102
00:36:33,559 --> 00:36:35,699
然后另一个部件随之而来

1103
00:36:35,699 --> 00:36:35,960
比如

1104
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:36,400
你知道的

1105
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:37,440
在里面拧上螺丝

1106
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:37,559
嗯

1107
00:36:37,559 --> 00:36:37,800
嗯

1108
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:38,519
对吧

1109
00:36:38,519 --> 00:36:43,050
当试图将机器人设计成人形时，这才是机器人真正擅长的领域

1110
00:36:43,050 --> 00:36:44,449
这极其困难

1111
00:36:44,449 --> 00:36:47,050
这可以追溯到我多年前的研究

1112
00:36:47,050 --> 00:36:49,289
在一家名为我的机器人和Colin Angle的公司

1113
00:36:49,289 --> 00:36:52,250
他在机器人领域堪称天才

1114
00:36:52,250 --> 00:36:56,230
他总在谈论这种难度

1115
00:36:56,230 --> 00:36:57,340
他说到

1116
00:36:57,340 --> 00:36:58,199
你知道的

1117
00:36:58,199 --> 00:36:59,099
我们是101

1118
00:36:59,099 --> 00:37:00,900
人类是101，试图

1119
00:37:00,900 --> 00:37:01,400
你知道的

1120
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,260
复制这种运动方式简直难如登天

1121
00:37:05,260 --> 00:37:11,239
以及所有这类动作

1122
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,460
展现智能

1123
00:37:13,460 --> 00:37:14,679
像人类一样行动

1124
00:37:14,679 --> 00:37:16,219
这太难了

1125
00:37:16,219 --> 00:37:16,980
确实很艰难

1126
00:37:16,980 --> 00:37:18,599
故事的寓意在这里

1127
00:37:18,599 --> 00:37:21,670
SpaceX比特斯拉更令人兴奋

1128
00:37:21,670 --> 00:37:24,648
这也是它将获得更高估值的原因

1129
00:37:24,648 --> 00:37:26,409
更高的市销率

1130
00:37:26,409 --> 00:37:27,168
P比率

1131
00:37:27,168 --> 00:37:28,688
这些指标多年来一直持续

1132
00:37:28,688 --> 00:37:29,768
仅仅为了第一辆汽车

1133
00:37:29,768 --> 00:37:32,039
我从未见过如此相似的BQ功能

1134
00:37:32,039 --> 00:37:33,320
和彭博社

1135
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,960
当然，Chain Elnails的市销率

1136
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:36,239
因为

1137
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,269
他曾多年研究Tom Elvin

1138
00:37:38,269 --> 00:37:39,750
我现在确实

1139
00:37:39,750 --> 00:37:40,869
我有几个数字

1140
00:37:40,869 --> 00:37:43,150
七倍营收和BQ方案

1141
00:37:43,150 --> 00:37:44,530
可能略高一些

1142
00:37:44,530 --> 00:37:46,260
我从未见过这样的股票

1143
00:37:46,260 --> 00:37:47,260
所以我的意思是

1144
00:37:47,260 --> 00:37:48,739
很高兴你们提到特斯拉

1145
00:37:48,739 --> 00:37:52,579
因为存在特斯拉与SpaceX合并的预期

1146
00:37:52,579 --> 00:37:57,360
或以类似X与SpaceX合并的方式结合

1147
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:58,639
你是如何思考这个问题的

1148
00:37:58,639 --> 00:38:01,320
这对相信特斯拉业务的投资者意味着什么

1149
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,130
但可能对SpaceX持怀疑态度

1150
00:38:04,130 --> 00:38:04,929
嗯，再说一遍

1151
00:38:04,929 --> 00:38:05,570
如果发生的话

1152
00:38:05,570 --> 00:38:06,329
我完全不知道

1153
00:38:06,329 --> 00:38:06,650
如果

1154
00:38:06,650 --> 00:38:07,449
如果会发生

1155
00:38:07,449 --> 00:38:07,969
确实如此

1156
00:38:07,969 --> 00:38:09,090
埃隆必须让它发生

1157
00:38:09,090 --> 00:38:09,489
不

1158
00:38:09,489 --> 00:38:10,590
他不需要让它发生

1159
00:38:10,590 --> 00:38:11,469
他可以分开处理

1160
00:38:11,469 --> 00:38:12,369
如果他愿意的话

1161
00:38:12,369 --> 00:38:12,690
就是

1162
00:38:12,690 --> 00:38:14,380
完全取决于他

1163
00:38:14,380 --> 00:38:15,380
我们都知道

1164
00:38:15,380 --> 00:38:17,699
但会是股权换股权的交易

1165
00:38:17,699 --> 00:38:23,269
所以我不知道这种情况下能增加多少价值

1166
00:38:23,269 --> 00:38:23,949
呃

1167
00:38:23,949 --> 00:38:26,329
削减开支不是重点

1168
00:38:26,329 --> 00:38:27,030
其实

1169
00:38:27,030 --> 00:38:30,849
其实这些公司未来五到十年的产出才是关键

1170
00:38:31,010 --> 00:38:33,949
我能看到这种情况发生

1171
00:38:33,949 --> 00:38:39,789
SpaceX在某种情况下收购特斯拉

1172
00:38:39,789 --> 00:38:41,849
你知道那个条件是什么

1173
00:38:41,849 --> 00:38:45,449
这种情况可能在未来几年就发生

1174
00:38:45,610 --> 00:38:47,769
特斯拉股价大幅下跌

1175
00:38:47,769 --> 00:38:50,070
假设特斯拉股价从现在开始

1176
00:38:50,070 --> 00:38:51,989
下跌40%、50%、60%

1177
00:38:51,989 --> 00:38:53,429
我确实能想象

1178
00:38:53,429 --> 00:38:57,929
如果估值跌到5000亿美元左右

1179
00:38:57,929 --> 00:38:59,389
尤其是如果跌破这个点

1180
00:38:59,389 --> 00:39:02,929
我能看到那时合并两家公司

1181
00:39:02,929 --> 00:39:05,409
然后整合全部资源

1182
00:39:05,409 --> 00:39:08,050
这会带来全新兴奋感

1183
00:39:08,050 --> 00:39:14,130
所以如果未来市场出现大幅回调或崩盘

1184
00:39:14,130 --> 00:39:15,778
暂且说是一两年内

1185
00:39:15,778 --> 00:39:17,518
我能预见SpaceX会这么做

1186
00:39:17,518 --> 00:39:18,679
SpaceX将继续融资

1187
00:39:18,679 --> 00:39:23,469
继续大量融资以达到

1188
00:39:23,869 --> 00:39:26,030
如果想完成这种操作

1189
00:39:26,030 --> 00:39:27,250
他们可以或收购其他公司

1190
00:39:27,250 --> 00:39:28,929
他们实际上在收购其他公司

1191
00:39:28,929 --> 00:39:30,110
目前看来

1192
00:39:30,110 --> 00:39:32,469
我相信他们完成了600亿美元收购

1193
00:39:32,469 --> 00:39:33,550
正在推进中

1194
00:39:33,550 --> 00:39:38,840
看看吉姆·钦诺斯的历史时刻和周期

1195
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,068
我之前提到过安然

1196
00:39:41,068 --> 00:39:44,389
所有这些我想让你谈谈做空业务

1197
00:39:44,389 --> 00:39:50,630
当前是牛市中金融体系的重要部分

1198
00:39:50,630 --> 00:39:52,110
我们现在正处于这个牛市

1199
00:39:52,110 --> 00:39:54,090
这里到处都是伤疤

1200
00:39:54,090 --> 00:39:57,570
现在看到SpaceX你还能坚持下去吗

1201
00:39:57,570 --> 00:39:59,190
如何维持短期模型

1202
00:39:59,190 --> 00:40:03,070
在两个板块和整体市场牛市趋势中操作

1203
00:40:03,070 --> 00:40:05,519
所以从2023年开始

1204
00:40:05,519 --> 00:40:06,920
我们现在在押注资金

1205
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,579
我们自己管理资金啊

1206
00:40:08,579 --> 00:40:12,619
自1996年起我们在做空市场领域对冲

1207
00:40:12,619 --> 00:40:14,108
基本上我们的观点是

1208
00:40:14,108 --> 00:40:15,829
我们不知道市场会走向何处

1209
00:40:15,829 --> 00:40:17,289
其他人也一样

1210
00:40:17,289 --> 00:40:20,599
所以我们更倾向于做多市场并做空

1211
00:40:20,599 --> 00:40:23,460
我们持有的这些高风险公司

1212
00:40:23,460 --> 00:40:24,199
如果可以的话

1213
00:40:24,199 --> 00:40:26,039
这一直是一项非常盈利的业务

1214
00:40:26,039 --> 00:40:28,179
过去几年一直非常盈利

1215
00:40:28,179 --> 00:40:28,739
确实

1216
00:40:28,739 --> 00:40:30,670
尽管市场屡创新高

1217
00:40:30,670 --> 00:40:32,409
因为有很多股票

1218
00:40:32,409 --> 00:40:35,170
你们也知道这些股票大幅落后

1219
00:40:35,170 --> 00:40:37,590
我们的观点始终是做多

1220
00:40:37,590 --> 00:40:39,269
市场并做空

1221
00:40:39,269 --> 00:40:41,050
某些比例的

1222
00:40:41,050 --> 00:40:41,690
你知道的

1223
00:40:41,690 --> 00:40:45,909
像那些糟糕的公司我们并不在意

1224
00:40:45,909 --> 00:40:47,769
我建议观众在家尝试

1225
00:40:47,769 --> 00:40:48,250
好的

1226
00:40:48,250 --> 00:40:51,570
我不推荐大多数人做空

1227
00:40:51,570 --> 00:40:53,329
这主要是专业人士的事

1228
00:40:53,329 --> 00:40:54,269
有很多原因

1229
00:40:54,269 --> 00:40:55,329
比如获得做空利息

1230
00:40:55,329 --> 00:40:57,489
做空时的利息返还

1231
00:40:57,489 --> 00:40:59,318
以及其他各种因素

1232
00:40:59,318 --> 00:41:02,759
但我要说现在一个明显的情况

1233
00:41:02,759 --> 00:41:04,159
非常显著

1234
00:41:04,159 --> 00:41:05,949
保险成本很低

1235
00:41:05,949 --> 00:41:08,030
所有原因都导致保险便宜

1236
00:41:08,030 --> 00:41:09,030
我不想打断

1237
00:41:09,030 --> 00:41:11,070
卡斯卡特想再提四个问题

1238
00:41:11,070 --> 00:41:12,170
SpaceX是否

1239
00:41:12,170 --> 00:41:13,599
具有高风险性

1240
00:41:13,599 --> 00:41:16,039
我们得看它最终走势

1241
00:41:16,039 --> 00:41:18,719
现在根本无法做空

1242
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:19,800
这个问题无解

1243
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:20,440
总之

1244
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:24,320
我认为交易市盈率超百倍的

1245
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,579
营收公司值得关注

1246
00:41:26,579 --> 00:41:31,668
历史上在这些估值下回报极差

1247
00:41:31,668 --> 00:41:34,050
科技泡沫时期我们如何应对

1248
00:41:34,050 --> 00:41:35,630
现在正是科技泡沫2.0阶段

1249
00:41:35,630 --> 00:41:35,869
啊

1250
00:41:35,869 --> 00:41:36,889
这大得多

1251
00:41:36,889 --> 00:41:41,090
人工智能的建设规模相对于TMT行业

1252
00:41:41,090 --> 00:41:42,409
建设规模达九十九

1253
00:41:42,409 --> 00:41:44,070
两千元是倍数增长

1254
00:41:44,070 --> 00:41:46,230
即使按经济占比计算

1255
00:41:46,230 --> 00:41:47,568
GDP

1256
00:41:47,568 --> 00:41:48,168
嗯

1257
00:41:48,168 --> 00:41:55,869
需要指出的重要一点是，当出现这些资本开支和技术热潮时

1258
00:41:55,869 --> 00:41:58,889
对收益的提升极为显著

1259
00:41:58,889 --> 00:42:01,289
有一个简单的会计原因

1260
00:42:01,289 --> 00:42:06,818
那就是当汤姆为数据中心从英伟达购买芯片时

1261
00:42:06,818 --> 00:42:10,059
英伟达将其确认为收入和利润

1262
00:42:15,119 --> 00:42:20,219
因此同一美元在资本开支热潮中

1263
00:42:20,219 --> 00:42:27,780
被一方确认为利润而另一方延迟支出

1264
00:42:27,780 --> 00:42:30,239
这种情况发生在1998年

1265
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:30,739
1999年

1266
00:42:30,739 --> 00:42:31,750
2000年

1267
00:42:31,750 --> 00:42:33,429
1998年中期

1268
00:42:33,429 --> 00:42:39,639
标普运营收益两年内增长30%至2000年中期

1269
00:42:39,639 --> 00:42:42,619
从2000年中期到2001年中期

1270
00:42:42,619 --> 00:42:44,139
当订单簿被撤回时

1271
00:42:44,139 --> 00:42:46,409
标普收益骤降40%

1272
00:42:46,409 --> 00:42:47,429
这是否过多

1273
00:42:47,429 --> 00:42:48,449
周五的会计处理

1274
00:42:48,449 --> 00:42:50,989
我认为是的，我就不多说了

1275
00:42:50,989 --> 00:42:52,380
我就说到这里

1276
00:42:52,380 --> 00:42:53,800
吉姆，我还有一个最后的问题

1277
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:54,599
在放你离开前

1278
00:42:54,599 --> 00:42:55,679
毕竟这是彭博社的钱

1279
00:42:55,679 --> 00:42:56,219
毕竟

1280
00:42:56,219 --> 00:42:58,360
你如何规划自己的财务

1281
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,800
与你为客户或他人管理资金有何不同

1282
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,019
主要投入我的业务和相关事务

1283
00:43:06,199 --> 00:43:08,619
我现在半退休了

1284
00:43:08,619 --> 00:43:09,900
并为他人提供建议

1285
00:43:09,900 --> 00:43:11,940
并非直接管理他们的资金

1286
00:43:11,940 --> 00:43:13,199
所以相当保守

1287
00:43:13,199 --> 00:43:15,670
但你是否经常

1288
00:43:15,670 --> 00:43:16,909
或会做大量调整

1289
00:43:16,909 --> 00:43:19,650
对大多数人来说仍是被动投资

1290
00:43:19,650 --> 00:43:21,019
我认为这才是正道

1291
00:43:21,019 --> 00:43:21,539
吉姆

1292
00:43:21,539 --> 00:43:22,079
我明白了

1293
00:43:22,079 --> 00:43:23,400
我们的商品在这里

1294
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,019
斯嘉丽带来了我们的夹克

1295
00:43:25,019 --> 00:43:25,639
准备好了

1296
00:43:25,639 --> 00:43:26,699
下周见

1297
00:43:26,699 --> 00:43:29,030
我们将今天前往圣安

1298
00:43:29,030 --> 00:43:30,150
他们确实完成了任务

1299
00:43:30,150 --> 00:43:30,570
好的

1300
00:43:30,570 --> 00:43:31,349
接下来这里

1301
00:43:31,349 --> 00:43:33,050
然后我们会对麦克风做出反应

1302
00:43:33,050 --> 00:43:35,710
威尔逊的视频片段分析市场未来走势

1303
00:43:35,710 --> 00:43:46,050
现在我列出市场中前三最佳投资标的并按顺序排列

1304
00:43:46,050 --> 00:43:49,829
比如这个第一

1305
00:43:50,570 --> 00:43:59,585
艾尔芙美妆在市场中在我看来是当前第一

1306
00:44:00,159 --> 00:44:02,380
赛乐斯控股

1307
00:44:02,380 --> 00:44:08,750
赛乐斯控股位列第二第三

1308
00:44:09,030 --> 00:44:10,570
它刚刚进入视野

1309
00:44:10,570 --> 00:44:11,889
真的Netflix

1310
00:44:11,889 --> 00:44:14,849
我认为Netflix是市场中的下一个最佳投资标的

1311
00:44:14,849 --> 00:44:19,139
这就是我目前的前三选择

1312
00:44:19,139 --> 00:44:23,159
之后我会加入耐克

1313
00:44:23,159 --> 00:44:28,739
之后还要考虑这些股票在未来

1314
00:44:28,739 --> 00:44:29,900
你知道的几年时间

1315
00:44:29,900 --> 00:44:31,480
我不仅仅关注下一个

1316
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,329
你知道的未来三到六个月的最佳股票

1317
00:44:34,329 --> 00:44:36,570
如果我们只讨论接下来三到六个月

1318
00:44:36,570 --> 00:44:37,889
比如A和D

1319
00:44:37,889 --> 00:44:40,170
A和B可能在未来三到六个月继续上涨

1320
00:44:40,170 --> 00:44:41,389
可能涨到一千美元

1321
00:44:41,389 --> 00:44:41,829
没错

1322
00:44:41,829 --> 00:44:44,750
我考虑的是未来三到六年

1323
00:44:44,750 --> 00:44:48,309
在所有芯片周期的 hype 和兴奋过后

1324
00:44:48,309 --> 00:44:49,369
所以你知道的

1325
00:44:49,369 --> 00:44:54,349
我关注的是未来三到五七年的受益企业

1326
00:44:54,349 --> 00:44:58,639
这些公司尚未反映其估值

1327
00:44:58,639 --> 00:44:59,559
嗯

1328
00:44:59,559 --> 00:45:01,280
美国运通

1329
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:02,039
我非常喜欢

1330
00:45:02,039 --> 00:45:06,148
当然我也很看好ServiceNow和Salesforce

1331
00:45:06,668 --> 00:45:10,750
然后不不不不

1332
00:45:11,389 --> 00:45:14,030
再次说Meta很有吸引力

1333
00:45:14,030 --> 00:45:16,230
但不要对Meta的短期前景过于兴奋

1334
00:45:16,230 --> 00:45:18,969
但这家公司长期前景非常优秀

1335
00:45:18,969 --> 00:45:19,909
没错

1336
00:45:20,230 --> 00:45:21,710
好的

1337
00:45:21,710 --> 00:45:22,710
接下来这里

1338
00:45:22,710 --> 00:45:25,090
更多威尔逊内容

1339
00:45:25,090 --> 00:45:26,210
让我们回应他

1340
00:45:26,210 --> 00:45:28,150
债券市场可能回撤

1341
00:45:28,150 --> 00:45:28,849
美联储加息

1342
00:45:28,849 --> 00:45:31,119
当前市场已充分定价

1343
00:45:31,119 --> 00:45:33,239
当前牛市格局依然稳固

1344
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:34,679
迈克现在加入我们继续讨论

1345
00:45:34,679 --> 00:45:35,739
很高兴见到你

1346
00:45:35,739 --> 00:45:37,000
感谢你的到来

1347
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:38,019
我们从这里开始

1348
00:45:38,019 --> 00:45:40,119
牛市的定义是什么

1349
00:45:40,119 --> 00:45:41,179
这是否意味着

1350
00:45:41,179 --> 00:45:43,099
股价持续上涨并稳步上升

1351
00:45:43,099 --> 00:45:44,519
或者这是否意味着

1352
00:45:44,519 --> 00:45:46,889
存在某种周期性潜在趋势

1353
00:45:46,889 --> 00:45:49,940
显示经济真正强劲复苏

1354
00:45:49,940 --> 00:45:51,539
让我们回顾牛市形成的原因

1355
00:45:51,539 --> 00:45:54,739
核心是去年持续衰退后的复苏

1356
00:45:54,739 --> 00:45:56,019
这种运营杠杆效应故事

1357
00:45:56,019 --> 00:45:57,400
这是由盈利驱动的牛市

1358
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:57,699
没错

1359
00:45:57,699 --> 00:46:00,780
因此去年我们在盈利增长前就出现了估值扩张

1360
00:46:00,780 --> 00:46:01,099
你知道的

1361
00:46:01,099 --> 00:46:02,739
预测这种情况即将发生

1362
00:46:02,739 --> 00:46:03,519
正如大家所记得的

1363
00:46:03,519 --> 00:46:04,380
进入今年时

1364
00:46:04,380 --> 00:46:06,699
经济前景充满悲观情绪

1365
00:46:06,699 --> 00:46:08,590
人们对盈利前景非常担忧

1366
00:46:08,590 --> 00:46:10,269
而我们采取了相反观点

1367
00:46:10,269 --> 00:46:10,510
我说的

1368
00:46:10,510 --> 00:46:11,789
名义GDP强劲增长

1369
00:46:11,789 --> 00:46:12,789
达到7%到8%

1370
00:46:12,789 --> 00:46:14,420
这一趋势已成定局

1371
00:46:14,420 --> 00:46:18,480
过去六个月估值逐渐回落

1372
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,389
但盈利表现优异仍支撑市场上涨

1373
00:46:21,389 --> 00:46:24,070
当前牛市下一阶段

1374
00:46:24,070 --> 00:46:26,570
通常估值持平或下降

1375
00:46:26,570 --> 00:46:28,389
盈利符合预期持续释放

1376
00:46:28,389 --> 00:46:29,710
但

1377
00:46:33,139 --> 00:46:35,199
盈利推动股市走高

1378
00:46:35,199 --> 00:46:40,159
资金转向低估盈利增长的领域

1379
00:46:40,159 --> 00:46:43,090
我们认为昨日走势已提供证据

1380
00:46:43,090 --> 00:46:44,929
或许即将迎来下一轮轮动

1381
00:46:44,929 --> 00:46:46,570
今年以来已有多次轮动

1382
00:46:46,570 --> 00:46:48,809
我们认为下一轮轮动将出现在某些领域

1383
00:46:48,809 --> 00:46:50,789
如区域性银行或消费品行业

1384
00:46:50,789 --> 00:46:52,969
这些领域存在不对称利好

1385
00:46:52,969 --> 00:46:53,550
你知道的

1386
00:46:53,550 --> 00:46:55,630
受油价下跌提振

1387
00:46:55,630 --> 00:46:56,809
这就是核心论点

1388
00:46:56,809 --> 00:46:57,289
好的

1389
00:46:57,289 --> 00:46:58,889
在继续讨论前

1390
00:46:58,889 --> 00:47:02,429
如果你想了解经济的好消息

1391
00:47:02,429 --> 00:47:05,269
我特别指未来

1392
00:47:06,559 --> 00:47:08,119
两到四年时间

1393
00:47:08,119 --> 00:47:08,639
好的

1394
00:47:08,639 --> 00:47:09,840
接下来两到四年

1395
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:11,000
不是两到四个月

1396
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,280
未来两到四年需要好消息

1397
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:19,199
所有资金正被科技巨头大量投入

1398
00:47:19,199 --> 00:47:21,300
这笔钱本可以用于股票回购

1399
00:47:21,300 --> 00:47:22,980
这实际上不会回到经济中

1400
00:47:22,980 --> 00:47:27,648
好消息是这些公司正在疯狂挥霍资金

1401
00:47:27,648 --> 00:47:28,568
比如Meta、亚马逊

1402
00:47:28,568 --> 00:47:30,309
所有资金都会重新注入经济

1403
00:47:30,309 --> 00:47:30,969
没错

1404
00:47:30,969 --> 00:47:32,570
而不是进行股票回购

1405
00:47:32,570 --> 00:47:36,909
这些资金正在用于建设巨型数据中心

1406
00:47:36,909 --> 00:47:38,489
就在其他设施中

1407
00:47:38,489 --> 00:47:42,980
需要大量建筑工人和普通工人

1408
00:47:42,980 --> 00:47:47,108
从中获利的交易规模巨大

1409
00:47:47,108 --> 00:47:49,708
还有像英伟达和AMD这样的公司

1410
00:47:49,708 --> 00:47:51,028
这类公司将获益巨大

1411
00:47:51,028 --> 00:47:52,420
它们能够顺利招聘

1412
00:47:52,420 --> 00:47:55,239
显然现在芯片生产规模扩大

1413
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:56,840
开始在美国发生

1414
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,400
包括亚利桑那州的台积电工厂

1415
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,260
距离我的租赁房屋仅15到20分钟车程

1416
00:48:03,260 --> 00:48:04,059
我那里有

1417
00:48:04,059 --> 00:48:04,760
没错

1418
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:10,219
这些钱正在经济中流通并循环

1419
00:48:10,219 --> 00:48:11,659
所以这是好消息

1420
00:48:11,659 --> 00:48:13,820
这是一个持续多年的趋势

1421
00:48:13,820 --> 00:48:15,320
这对经济非常利好

1422
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:18,659
另一个问题是住房市场多年低迷

1423
00:48:18,659 --> 00:48:19,920
此时此刻

1424
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:25,460
在我看来，住房是经济最积极的催化剂

1425
00:48:25,460 --> 00:48:30,099
未来几年十年期国债可能持续下行

1426
00:48:30,099 --> 00:48:34,239
概率很高，所以如果发生

1427
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,460
住房市场将逐步复苏

1428
00:48:36,460 --> 00:48:37,860
我看到价格

1429
00:48:37,860 --> 00:48:38,829
你知道的

1430
00:48:38,829 --> 00:48:40,750
其实我没太注意到

1431
00:48:40,750 --> 00:48:42,989
房价多年来持续上涨

1432
00:48:42,989 --> 00:48:43,670
此时此刻

1433
00:48:43,670 --> 00:48:48,360
反而是趋于平稳甚至下跌，而工资却在上涨

1434
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:53,079
我认为未来几年住房市场可能大幅改善

1435
00:48:53,079 --> 00:48:54,760
这将是巨大的利好

1436
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,079
因为这曾是经济拖累因素

1437
00:48:57,079 --> 00:48:58,880
当人们搬迁时

1438
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,659
这会拖累经济

1439
00:49:00,659 --> 00:49:02,000
人们搬迁时

1440
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,360
这对经济是巨大提振

1441
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:08,179
人们需要租卡车搬运物品，购买新家电

1442
00:49:08,179 --> 00:49:11,519
人们翻新房产准备出售

1443
00:49:11,519 --> 00:49:13,510
然后搬入新居

1444
00:49:13,510 --> 00:49:15,489
他们可能要装修或改造

1445
00:49:15,489 --> 00:49:17,559
会去购买新沙发

1446
00:49:17,559 --> 00:49:18,159
去购买这个

1447
00:49:18,159 --> 00:49:20,179
这将引发经济的巨大繁荣

1448
00:49:20,179 --> 00:49:23,360
货币流通和支出，然后钱又回来

1449
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:23,800
你知道的

1450
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:24,199
搬迁

1451
00:49:24,199 --> 00:49:25,820
如果大家一直待在家里

1452
00:49:25,820 --> 00:49:29,019
年复一年从不移动

1453
00:49:29,420 --> 00:49:29,940
我的意思是

1454
00:49:29,940 --> 00:49:31,579
他们要买新沙发吗

1455
00:49:31,579 --> 00:49:32,539
他们要装修吗

1456
00:49:32,539 --> 00:49:33,780
他们要修缮东西吗

1457
00:49:33,780 --> 00:49:35,179
算了随便吧

1458
00:49:35,179 --> 00:49:36,760
甚至要粉刷那堵墙

1459
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:40,679
这太糟糕了还去家得宝买雪儿文涂料

1460
00:49:40,679 --> 00:49:42,139
我现在不需要这么做

1461
00:49:42,139 --> 00:49:44,909
所有这些都被推了出去

1462
00:49:44,909 --> 00:49:46,250
当人们开始搬迁时

1463
00:49:46,250 --> 00:49:47,190
从根本上

1464
00:49:47,190 --> 00:49:47,869
改变游戏规则

1465
00:49:47,869 --> 00:49:50,670
这也是未来几年可能非常积极的因素

1466
00:49:50,670 --> 00:49:51,170
对经济而言

1467
00:49:51,170 --> 00:49:52,750
如果我们能激活这个房地产市场

1468
00:49:52,750 --> 00:49:57,050
让股市 rally 完全由基本面驱动

1469
00:49:57,050 --> 00:49:58,550
然后 SpaceX 发生了

1470
00:49:58,550 --> 00:50:00,610
这种程度会怎样破坏

1471
00:50:00,610 --> 00:50:01,690
部分理论

1472
00:50:01,690 --> 00:50:02,210
你看啊

1473
00:50:02,210 --> 00:50:02,610
我的意思是

1474
00:50:02,610 --> 00:50:06,050
市场同时受基本面和动物精神驱动

1475
00:50:06,050 --> 00:50:09,269
你不能分开两者它们和谐共存

1476
00:50:09,269 --> 00:50:10,110
所以是的

1477
00:50:10,110 --> 00:50:11,789
现在确实有点过热

1478
00:50:11,789 --> 00:50:12,409
在某些领域

1479
00:50:12,409 --> 00:50:14,960
在某些领域

1480
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:18,199
系统和半导体领域杠杆很高

1481
00:50:18,199 --> 00:50:19,400
举个例子

1482
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:20,599
现在开始显现

1483
00:50:20,599 --> 00:50:21,079
稍微一点

1484
00:50:21,079 --> 00:50:23,039
这是我们两周前写过的

1485
00:50:23,039 --> 00:50:23,860
这是良性发展

1486
00:50:23,860 --> 00:50:25,760
只要还有去处

1487
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,400
如果没有任何去处

1488
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,119
就会出现更严重的下跌

1489
00:50:29,119 --> 00:50:31,429
衰退可能演变成更严重的问题

1490
00:50:31,429 --> 00:50:32,389
我们认为不会发生

1491
00:50:32,389 --> 00:50:33,869
我们认为这是正常过渡

1492
00:50:33,869 --> 00:50:35,110
我想再回到年初

1493
00:50:35,110 --> 00:50:36,309
年初的时候

1494
00:50:36,309 --> 00:50:38,150
当人们真的

1495
00:50:38,389 --> 00:50:39,050
呃

1496
00:50:39,050 --> 00:50:41,010
天啊

1497
00:50:41,010 --> 00:50:42,849
天啊

1498
00:50:42,849 --> 00:50:45,690
Micron 企业

1499
00:50:46,210 --> 00:50:48,050
你让我翻炒我的煎饼

1500
00:50:48,050 --> 00:50:50,010
我现在正在关注这只股票

1501
00:50:50,010 --> 00:50:53,989
一千一百四十一美元

1502
00:50:53,989 --> 00:50:55,998
很多人并不这么认为

1503
00:50:55,998 --> 00:50:56,619
很多人

1504
00:50:56,619 --> 00:50:57,759
相当多的人

1505
00:50:57,759 --> 00:50:59,559
我见过它这样

1506
00:50:59,559 --> 00:51:01,778
你觉得会涨到两千

1507
00:51:01,778 --> 00:51:02,829
我们拭目以待

1508
00:51:02,829 --> 00:51:04,190
我们拭目以待兄弟

1509
00:51:04,190 --> 00:51:07,329
这只股票可以说是最强的

1510
00:51:07,329 --> 00:51:09,230
我一直在追踪

1511
00:51:09,230 --> 00:51:11,309
比 AMD 更强对吧

1512
00:51:11,309 --> 00:51:12,510
这已经说得很厉害了

1513
00:51:12,510 --> 00:51:14,429
因为 AMD 的实力惊人

1514
00:51:14,429 --> 00:51:16,528
但没有任何东西能超越 MU

1515
00:51:16,528 --> 00:51:17,648
目前就是这样

1516
00:51:17,648 --> 00:51:20,389
再次强调，内存市场能瞬息万变

1517
00:51:20,389 --> 00:51:21,688
所以你知道现在什么热门

1518
00:51:21,688 --> 00:51:23,628
明年可能就变成冰点

1519
00:51:23,628 --> 00:51:26,050
但眼下它

1520
00:51:26,050 --> 00:51:26,690
你知道的

1521
00:51:26,690 --> 00:51:28,929
显然三星和其它公司同样火热

1522
00:51:28,929 --> 00:51:30,489
我并不跟踪三星

1523
00:51:30,489 --> 00:51:33,090
所以我对增长持悲观态度

1524
00:51:33,090 --> 00:51:36,369
今年我们只看到一轮轮轮动

1525
00:51:36,369 --> 00:51:37,250
从大宗商品

1526
00:51:37,250 --> 00:51:37,530
好的

1527
00:51:37,530 --> 00:51:38,329
今年发生了什么

1528
00:51:38,329 --> 00:51:40,030
美联储再次开始印钞

1529
00:51:40,030 --> 00:51:43,789
没错，流入黄金和白银股票的资本

1530
00:51:43,789 --> 00:51:45,889
随后进入金属和稀土领域

1531
00:51:45,889 --> 00:51:47,159
接着流入能源股

1532
00:51:47,159 --> 00:51:48,679
最终进入半导体行业

1533
00:51:48,679 --> 00:51:50,039
这些领域有什么共同点

1534
00:51:50,039 --> 00:51:51,079
它们都是大宗商品

1535
00:51:51,079 --> 00:51:51,400
好的

1536
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:52,320
我们经历了一轮大宗商品

1537
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,179
而 HALLEY 基本上下跌

1538
00:51:54,179 --> 00:51:56,300
现在我们认为将迎来扩散行情

1539
00:51:56,300 --> 00:51:58,550
这在年初和二月已经开始

1540
00:51:58,550 --> 00:52:00,710
因伊朗战争而中断

1541
00:52:00,710 --> 00:52:01,710
并导致油价飙升

1542
00:52:01,710 --> 00:52:02,989
以及美联储政策的重新定价

1543
00:52:02,989 --> 00:52:04,230
现在这些因素正在消退

1544
00:52:04,230 --> 00:52:06,690
因此我们可以重新轮动到这些领域

1545
00:52:06,690 --> 00:52:07,769
周期性行业

1546
00:52:07,769 --> 00:52:08,969
这些行业的盈利相当不错

1547
00:52:08,969 --> 00:52:10,510
但市场对其严重低估

1548
00:52:10,510 --> 00:52:12,329
如果我们迎来鹰派的凯文·沃什

1549
00:52:12,329 --> 00:52:13,590
这会不会影响轮换操作

1550
00:52:13,590 --> 00:52:15,150
我们将定义鹰派的凯文·沃什

1551
00:52:15,150 --> 00:52:15,389
我的意思是

1552
00:52:15,389 --> 00:52:16,750
可以从几个角度来思考这个问题

1553
00:52:16,750 --> 00:52:18,110
我认为其中一个方向是对的

1554
00:52:18,110 --> 00:52:19,289
我觉得这可能性很低

1555
00:52:19,289 --> 00:52:19,710
好的

1556
00:52:19,710 --> 00:52:20,900
另一个方向是资产负债表

1557
00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:23,480
我们还不清楚他打算如何定位这一点

1558
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,358
本周我们听到的主要是

1559
00:52:26,679 --> 00:52:27,159
哦

1560
00:52:27,159 --> 00:52:27,438
嘿

1561
00:52:27,438 --> 00:52:28,239
嘿嘿迈克

1562
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:29,119
威尔逊迈克

1563
00:52:29,119 --> 00:52:30,659
威尔逊嘿嘿嘿嘿

1564
00:52:30,659 --> 00:52:30,938
嘿

1565
00:52:30,938 --> 00:52:34,889
看来沃森想大幅缩减资产负债表

1566
00:52:34,889 --> 00:52:36,050
这立场非常明确

1567
00:52:36,050 --> 00:52:38,409
没错而且

1568
00:52:39,250 --> 00:52:43,110
我预计他将在未来

1569
00:52:43,110 --> 00:52:44,329
我们可以称之为两到三年

1570
00:52:44,329 --> 00:52:45,369
不会一蹴而就

1571
00:52:45,369 --> 00:52:47,918
但应在接下来几年逐步缩减

1572
00:52:47,918 --> 00:52:48,838
真正了解发生了什么

1573
00:52:48,838 --> 00:52:49,199
好的

1574
00:52:49,199 --> 00:52:50,460
也就是说你知道的

1575
00:52:50,460 --> 00:52:52,300
杰伊·鲍威尔给他留下了一个不错的方案

1576
00:52:52,300 --> 00:52:53,320
也就是说我们

1577
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:57,440
基本上已经看到rp增速放缓

1578
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:57,840
好的

1579
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:58,960
这确实是一个

1580
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:02,780
我过去两年一直在仔细追踪流动性

1581
00:53:02,780 --> 00:53:06,210
因为这是动物精神的主要驱动力

1582
00:53:06,210 --> 00:53:08,210
年初时情况非常积极

1583
00:53:08,210 --> 00:53:10,610
当他们重启rp或资产购买时

1584
00:53:10,610 --> 00:53:12,329
加上国债回购操作

1585
00:53:12,329 --> 00:53:13,389
以及储备率

1586
00:53:13,389 --> 00:53:13,849
你知道的

1587
00:53:13,849 --> 00:53:17,619
银行增加了一些资本现在正在放缓

1588
00:53:17,619 --> 00:53:20,880
从每月400亿美元rp降至100亿美元

1589
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,719
这种放缓已经形成

1590
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:24,619
他正在接手

1591
00:53:24,619 --> 00:53:26,659
他会出来宣布说嘿

1592
00:53:26,659 --> 00:53:27,719
我们要增加

1593
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:28,579
这可能性不大

1594
00:53:28,579 --> 00:53:29,900
他会说我们要终止

1595
00:53:29,900 --> 00:53:30,679
可能性也不大

1596
00:53:30,679 --> 00:53:32,480
但放缓趋势依然存在

1597
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:34,340
所以我认为我们已经知道答案了

1598
00:53:34,340 --> 00:53:34,800
好的

1599
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,619
当前流动性正在放缓

1600
00:53:37,619 --> 00:53:40,179
正如我们一直在讨论的，这似乎

1601
00:53:40,179 --> 00:53:43,119
这就是所谓的夏季波动和修正期

1602
00:53:43,119 --> 00:53:44,139
就像这种轮动

1603
00:53:44,139 --> 00:53:45,690
你昨天已经说过

1604
00:53:45,690 --> 00:53:47,889
我们正在下跌行情中出现轮动

1605
00:53:47,889 --> 00:53:48,550
好的

1606
00:53:48,550 --> 00:53:49,789
这就是我预期的

1607
00:53:49,789 --> 00:53:51,110
我们将迎来下跌行情

1608
00:53:51,110 --> 00:53:52,130
但会伴随轮动

1609
00:53:54,980 --> 00:53:55,679
迈克·威尔逊

1610
00:53:55,679 --> 00:53:56,340
威尔逊

1611
00:53:56,340 --> 00:53:57,820
听着

1612
00:53:57,820 --> 00:54:00,159
他持与许多人相同的立场

1613
00:54:00,159 --> 00:54:01,670
大家本就预期

1614
00:54:01,670 --> 00:54:02,429
你知道的

1615
00:54:02,429 --> 00:54:03,789
市场可能在

1616
00:54:03,789 --> 00:54:05,789
五月开始持续抛售

1617
00:54:05,789 --> 00:54:07,449
然后秋季大概率反弹

1618
00:54:07,449 --> 00:54:08,889
没错，嗯

1619
00:54:08,889 --> 00:54:09,548
我只是想

1620
00:54:09,548 --> 00:54:11,108
所有人都站在同一边

1621
00:54:11,108 --> 00:54:13,019
他们往往判断错误

1622
00:54:13,019 --> 00:54:15,579
正如我一开始所说

1623
00:54:15,579 --> 00:54:16,579
我并不觉得意外

1624
00:54:16,579 --> 00:54:18,748
或许会贯穿春夏

1625
00:54:18,748 --> 00:54:20,329
然后秋季被迫抛售

1626
00:54:20,329 --> 00:54:20,628
因为

1627
00:54:20,628 --> 00:54:23,090
所有人都预期市场会

1628
00:54:23,090 --> 00:54:24,190
你知道的，下跌

1629
00:54:24,190 --> 00:54:25,250
但并未下跌

1630
00:54:25,250 --> 00:54:26,570
随后又预期上涨

1631
00:54:26,570 --> 00:54:27,710
结果却反向而行

1632
00:54:27,710 --> 00:54:29,889
下一个风险点

1633
00:54:29,889 --> 00:54:32,400
市场已渡过关税危机

1634
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,659
显然现在关注更长远

1635
00:54:34,659 --> 00:54:35,980
伊朗冲突

1636
00:54:35,980 --> 00:54:37,039
将成为全年焦点

1637
00:54:37,039 --> 00:54:38,280
这是否只是潜在可能

1638
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:39,139
总统曾表示

1639
00:54:39,139 --> 00:54:39,539
当他看到伊朗局势

1640
00:54:39,539 --> 00:54:40,360
若他看到伊朗情况

1641
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:41,699
将再次发动打击

1642
00:54:41,699 --> 00:54:44,690
这是否可能引发动荡

1643
00:54:44,690 --> 00:54:45,130
嗯

1644
00:54:45,130 --> 00:54:47,489
我的观众可能不喜欢我说这个

1645
00:54:47,489 --> 00:54:48,869
但市场已超越战争影响

1646
00:54:48,869 --> 00:54:50,530
他们早已度过关税危机一年

1647
00:54:50,530 --> 00:54:52,030
我记得去年这个时候

1648
00:54:52,030 --> 00:54:53,599
2025年六月

1649
00:54:53,599 --> 00:54:55,900
大家还在围绕露台争论不休

1650
00:54:55,900 --> 00:54:57,440
我们一个月前就说过

1651
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:57,800
就像那样

1652
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:58,760
我们已度过恐惧期

1653
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:00,730
所以我觉得本质相同

1654
00:55:00,730 --> 00:55:02,329
在这场战争中我们学到的另一件事

1655
00:55:02,329 --> 00:55:03,250
这太令人惊讶了

1656
00:55:03,250 --> 00:55:04,900
好吧我没想到会这样

1657
00:55:04,900 --> 00:55:06,880
我们才意识到供应量有多大

1658
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:07,699
我的意思是

1659
00:55:07,699 --> 00:55:08,860
如果你处于那种情况

1660
00:55:08,860 --> 00:55:09,739
这就是完美风暴

1661
00:55:09,739 --> 00:55:11,789
如果你是年初的能源巨头

1662
00:55:11,789 --> 00:55:13,550
顺便说一下能源股表现极佳

1663
00:55:13,550 --> 00:55:16,949
然后它们在袭击当天达到峰值

1664
00:55:16,949 --> 00:55:18,650
所以想想这个事件

1665
00:55:18,650 --> 00:55:22,398
油价只能涨到125美元

1666
00:55:22,398 --> 00:55:24,998
如果通胀调整后那差距就更明显

1667
00:55:24,998 --> 00:55:26,650
在乌克兰危机期间我们曾达到的水平

1668
00:55:29,170 --> 00:55:31,730
这对我来说是强烈信号

1669
00:55:31,730 --> 00:55:36,469
世界在能源供应方面非常坚韧

1670
00:55:36,469 --> 00:55:38,349
中国是所有库存的重要部分

1671
00:55:38,349 --> 00:55:40,750
但在我看来这是看跌信号

1672
00:55:40,750 --> 00:55:43,190
对未来的油价非常看跌

1673
00:55:43,190 --> 00:55:43,590
是的

1674
00:55:43,590 --> 00:55:44,989
现在看西德克萨斯原油

1675
00:55:44,989 --> 00:55:46,570
76美元看布伦特原油

1676
00:55:46,570 --> 00:55:49,829
79美元那天然气

1677
00:55:50,469 --> 00:55:53,969
322你指出了有趣的现象

1678
00:55:53,969 --> 00:55:58,650
你认为商品牛市交易即将结束

1679
00:55:58,650 --> 00:56:01,349
认为该行业将持续领跑的观点

1680
00:56:01,349 --> 00:56:01,670
好的

1681
00:56:01,670 --> 00:56:04,230
在视频结束前请听我说

1682
00:56:04,230 --> 00:56:04,469
好的

1683
00:56:04,469 --> 00:56:07,068
我告诉你们

1684
00:56:07,068 --> 00:56:10,530
市场走向会有大量观点

1685
00:56:10,530 --> 00:56:11,869
市场将如何发展

1686
00:56:11,869 --> 00:56:12,630
我们要上涨吗

1687
00:56:12,630 --> 00:56:13,389
我们要下跌吗

1688
00:56:13,389 --> 00:56:14,530
我们要去唐人街吗

1689
00:56:14,530 --> 00:56:15,030
对吧

1690
00:56:15,030 --> 00:56:16,829
诸如此类的问题

1691
00:56:16,829 --> 00:56:19,590
讨论和辩论很有趣

1692
00:56:19,590 --> 00:56:20,590
尝试猜测

1693
00:56:20,590 --> 00:56:24,119
但不要让金钱决策

1694
00:56:24,119 --> 00:56:29,579
不要基于未来三个月市场走势做决定

1695
00:56:29,579 --> 00:56:30,380
十二个月

1696
00:56:30,380 --> 00:56:31,460
六个月

1697
00:56:31,460 --> 00:56:32,599
十八个月

1698
00:56:32,599 --> 00:56:33,840
不要这样做

1699
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:35,159
只需专注

1700
00:56:35,159 --> 00:56:37,179
我有机会买入优质公司吗

1701
00:56:37,179 --> 00:56:38,059
是的

1702
00:56:38,059 --> 00:56:39,199
我拿到了这只股票

1703
00:56:39,199 --> 00:56:39,619
这支股票

1704
00:56:39,619 --> 00:56:40,340
就是这支股票

1705
00:56:40,340 --> 00:56:42,289
构建一个优质投资组合

1706
00:56:42,289 --> 00:56:44,469
其中包含一些优质公司对吧

1707
00:56:44,469 --> 00:56:47,090
然后逐步建立这些仓位

1708
00:56:47,090 --> 00:56:51,940
因此不要沉迷于预测市场的游戏

1709
00:56:51,940 --> 00:56:55,059
不要基于市场预测做资金决策

1710
00:56:55,059 --> 00:56:55,860
如果你想的话

1711
00:56:55,860 --> 00:56:56,280
你知道的

1712
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,780
试图预测市场并说我认为现在会上涨

1713
00:56:58,780 --> 00:57:00,519
然后在某个时间点下跌也不错

1714
00:57:00,519 --> 00:57:02,900
但不要据此做资金决策

1715
00:57:02,900 --> 00:57:06,230
这就像谈论有趣的话题对吧

1716
00:57:06,230 --> 00:57:08,840
和我们讨论体育赛事没什么不同

1717
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:12,400
现在如果有喜欢体育的观众

1718
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,179
我们喜欢尝试预测

1719
00:57:14,179 --> 00:57:14,460
哦

1720
00:57:14,460 --> 00:57:15,980
这场比赛将会

1721
00:57:15,980 --> 00:57:16,579
你知道的

1722
00:57:16,579 --> 00:57:17,380
朝这个方向发展

1723
00:57:17,380 --> 00:57:19,400
或者这位运动员会成为传奇

1724
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:20,809
你知道这将是下一个

1725
00:57:20,809 --> 00:57:22,070
某某对吧

1726
00:57:22,070 --> 00:57:23,349
我们热衷于做这些预测

1727
00:57:23,349 --> 00:57:27,438
但不要据此做资金决策

1728
00:57:27,438 --> 00:57:31,059
我们要押注这位大学生球员会成为下一个汤姆

1729
00:57:31,059 --> 00:57:31,438
布雷迪

1730
00:57:31,438 --> 00:57:31,719
好的

1731
00:57:31,719 --> 00:57:32,378
或者你知道的

1732
00:57:32,378 --> 00:57:33,059
这支球队会赢

1733
00:57:33,059 --> 00:57:33,458
完全不是

1734
00:57:33,458 --> 00:57:35,369
讨论和辩论很有趣

1735
00:57:35,369 --> 00:57:37,949
但我们不会据此做资金决策

1736
00:57:37,949 --> 00:57:40,110
这就是市场中人常犯的大错

1737
00:57:40,110 --> 00:57:42,960
他们开始像玩体育一样预测市场

1738
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:44,880
我认为这个月市场会下跌

1739
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:46,519
因此这个月不能买入股票

1740
00:57:46,519 --> 00:57:47,539
下个月再买

1741
00:57:47,539 --> 00:57:49,579
或者全年都会下跌

1742
00:57:49,579 --> 00:57:50,139
下个月再买

1743
00:57:50,139 --> 00:57:50,519
不

1744
00:57:50,519 --> 00:57:51,539
不要玩这种游戏

1745
00:57:51,539 --> 00:57:52,500
即使你猜对了

1746
00:57:52,500 --> 00:57:53,489
你只是运气好

1747
00:57:53,489 --> 00:57:54,510
这不是靠技巧

1748
00:57:54,510 --> 00:57:55,989
我可以向你保证

1749
00:57:55,989 --> 00:57:57,090
因为我观察过

1750
00:57:57,090 --> 00:57:57,809
你知道的

1751
00:57:57,809 --> 00:57:58,610
最资深的

1752
00:57:58,610 --> 00:57:59,730
最聪明的投资者

1753
00:57:59,730 --> 00:58:00,608
我见过的

1754
00:58:00,608 --> 00:58:03,628
无数次犯错没错吧

1755
00:58:03,628 --> 00:58:04,449
看看巴菲特

1756
00:58:04,449 --> 00:58:05,608
我说巴菲特还在

1757
00:58:05,608 --> 00:58:07,980
还有比巴菲特更传奇更有经验的人吗

1758
00:58:07,980 --> 00:58:11,380
他在行动上一直频频犯错

1759
00:58:11,380 --> 00:58:15,070
他多年积累巨额现金却错失

1760
00:58:15,070 --> 00:58:16,550
你知道能赚那么多钱

1761
00:58:16,550 --> 00:58:17,550
这太荒谬了

1762
00:58:17,550 --> 00:58:19,389
对吧所以你知道

1763
00:58:19,389 --> 00:58:21,309
不要试图预测游戏

1764
00:58:21,309 --> 00:58:22,559
你知道的

1765
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:24,309
可能会下跌

1766
00:58:24,630 --> 00:58:25,510
让它下跌

1767
00:58:25,510 --> 00:58:26,349
继续买入

1768
00:58:26,349 --> 00:58:27,929
你知道的

1769
00:58:27,929 --> 00:58:28,789
我们了解什么

1770
00:58:28,789 --> 00:58:32,449
市场历史上每一次修正崩盘

1771
00:58:32,449 --> 00:58:34,460
所有人都在买入再见

1772
00:58:34,460 --> 00:58:34,960
好的

1773
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:36,360
大家感谢你们一如既往的加入

1774
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:37,440
再次感谢你们的到来

1775
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:40,340
如果你想成为比现在更好的投资者

1776
00:58:40,340 --> 00:58:41,380
加入我的私密社群

1777
00:58:41,380 --> 00:58:42,059
申请加入那里

1778
00:58:42,059 --> 00:58:43,300
那就是下方置顶评论

1779
00:58:43,300 --> 00:58:43,699
我们是

1780
00:58:43,699 --> 00:58:44,139
呃

1781
00:58:44,139 --> 00:58:46,809
新成员申请将在八天后关闭

1782
00:58:46,809 --> 00:58:49,210
你有有限时间加入我们

1783
00:58:49,210 --> 00:58:50,730
那就是下方置顶评论

1784
00:58:50,730 --> 00:58:53,340
然后我们会将专属会员卡寄到你家

1785
00:58:53,340 --> 00:58:55,699
以及欢迎礼包等所有好东西

1786
00:58:55,699 --> 00:58:56,019
好的

1787
00:58:56,019 --> 00:58:56,420
好的

1788
00:58:56,420 --> 00:58:56,820
充满爱意

1789
00:58:56,820 --> 00:58:58,000
祝你度过美好一天

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