【直播回放】美股投资 2026年06月05日 非农数据

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行吗

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现在现在OK吗

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现在OK吗

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听得见吗

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你们都在吗

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在的话扣个一

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我看不见你们在不在

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行行行行行

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我因为我因为我播

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我在外面

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就是我在路上

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所以我就一个手机播

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然后我不知道

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我因为我播了

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我就没法看那个股票市场的

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这是对一个什么的一个变化

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再怎么样

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就就现在现在半导体指数还在往下挫吗

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串吗

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因为我看不见

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我就不得我用手机就一个视频播

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现在还在网上传吗

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应该止跌了

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我看看

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那就还行啊

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那就还行

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我看看那就那就那就那就还挺好的

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还没有一波带走

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不过这种跳空低开再往下窜嗯

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比较比较危险

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真的很危险

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大家多少层仓位啊

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多少仓位

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那乌龙多好

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大概多少仓位

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零零整仓

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那那那那挺好的

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大概多少仓啊

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50%

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20%还是100%

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就就是大家不论多少仓

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都有一个都有一个必须必须要知道的

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接下来的两个时间点

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第一个是4SPX

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对这个市场到底因为space肯定一上市

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你要不涨要不跌

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你爹的话不得有人接吗

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那你也要有瞅瞅流动性的问题

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那你涨的话

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那就更不用说了

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那么还有第二个问题就是记住6月18号的期权

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本月的月本月的期权他是的延续三个月

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两个月

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就这一波牛市的做市商的正伽马清空

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就就是他不再会是逢低必买了

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懂吗

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就注册商他的一个期权结构就决定了它不再会逢低必买

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它会变成更加的随机哎

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讲讲简单呢就是从现在的逢低必买变成了追涨杀跌

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就做智商会追涨杀跌

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所以6月份困难模式

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宝宝们6月份是困难

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就是6月份可能又是分化轮动

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甚至可能是大盘直接绷不住了

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这有可能就是今天不要看半导体到底反不反弹

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半导体所有的反弹都是为了如果在如果在软件也崩了的话

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半导体的反弹只是日内交易的

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这这这这这一个东西懂吧

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日内交易的这东西它不是一个咳

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它不是一个真正反弹

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当然我也不能这么说吧

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只能说他也会有双顶顶

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不过呢因为博通还有最近的

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因为小作文对吧

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韩国今天的小作文

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什么英伟达的最新的产品要用的存储

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要砍半对吧

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基本上就直接对准了两个最核心的炒作热点

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一个是光

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一个是存储

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下刀了吧是吧

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这两个最核心的存储下这两个最核心的板块下刀了

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这说明了其实市场上面已经是不再无脑无脑往上冲了

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肯定会这样的

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肯定会有影响的嗯

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然后看博通

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今天主要是看博通

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还有看呃

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存储这些无所谓了

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因为存储这一些的话

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它是纯靠的资金面再跌一下

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拉回一下

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为了卖卖卖卖卖卖

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卖完之后又跌又又涨一点点

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卖卖卖卖卖

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他是这样的

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他是这样

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他的所有的涨就是为了不要让它跌这么快

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小钱小部队掩护大部队撤退

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就这样

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然后你说如果这种从现在开始

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我因为我没有看见盘盘面啊

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我在直播

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然后我一个手机

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一旦今天无论怎么样哈

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IGV也好

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微软微软这个无所谓了

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因为微软这个已经跌无可跌了

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他支撑位很很强的

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他支撑位下方支撑位就两

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就这两三个点

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OK它下面所有的什么

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它下面所有的IGV这一些前几大持仓如果都下跌

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就证明了将近两个多月

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要不就是空投

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要不多投

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要不多投啊

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要不空投

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最起码这种配对交易他是有多头的

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懂吗

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宝宝们

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最起码他是有多头在他不会没有多头

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在如果这最多成交量最多

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人最多机构去做的这一波这一个配对它失效了

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而且是是什么样

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是多头

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这种做轮动的

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多头变空头

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那就真的剩下空头了

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那么这一波的空投他会去哪里

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或者是剩下的多多

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他会去哪去

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保守反保守板块

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你聊呀

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COSTCO啊

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必须消费品

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可是记住宝宝们记住这一波的COSTCO和上一波的关税打仗完全是不一样的

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宝宝们

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因为这一波是利率问题

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就是COSTCO包括沃尔玛

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他财报本身它是不行的

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之前是他的财报很棒的

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就是现在资金去那一些防守的板块

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他这些工这些板块他业绩是不好的嗯

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所以只不过是一个资金轮动

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短短轮动的问题

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超短轮动的问题

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所以也是一个会比以往我们看见的这种啊

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这种先在上面盘整啊

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然后再轮动

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这一种要激烈很多

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回调的时候微调情况会激烈非常多

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所以大家一定一定一定要知道有这个点在

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不要说

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没有办法呀

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这个你没有办法降息

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懂吗

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宝宝们就没法降息

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你看哪里有没有一个数据证明它会降死

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不会加

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虽然我认为是不会加

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因为我有不少嗯

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我有不少的朋友也是在国外的对吧

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我自己就是一个广东人

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靠近广东的

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还我家里还还是一个比较什么

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还是一个办个华侨航安我我我知道就是不会加

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我个人倾向不会加

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当然今天出了这一个大肥农之后

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利率市场它的压注他是要加的

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就说我个人还是比较乐观

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可是降息的的肯定往后移特别长时间

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降息肯定会往

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对对对

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这位朋友说的对了

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是缩表加降息

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现在是缩表

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是百分百会缩的

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而且会照计划会说

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可是降息会延后

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这不就相当于加息吗

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不过相当于这就是加息

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就相当于加息抽走流动性

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一样的道理一模一样

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所以说现在问题最大的还是这个

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懂吗

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反正反正你宏观的事情肯定是一击就就直接就触发了机构的败板

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今天就很明显了

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就今天是非常明显的

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机构不留情

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直接卖

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那明天因为今天是周五

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周五还是有期权结算的

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那么看周末

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如果周末没有一些半导体的利好消息在

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嗯基本上如果还是发酵一些什么什么什么呃

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加息呀

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大肥农就业啊

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或者特朗普和特朗普那个伊朗在那一边嗯

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相互扯皮呀

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没那就没有用了

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那就会黑色星期一的概率非常大

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因为市场已经就是之前的市场的预期

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就是在什么样的前提

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油价会下跌

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就你们会谈妥油价会下跌

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这个场景在

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可是现在市场已经开始交易的是油价长期徘徊在高位

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长期排位在高位

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就你来不及交易未预期了

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你现在就已经开始有点绷不住了

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你看就业率这么好对吧

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就业也挺好的

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唉物价也不停上涨

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就就不加血

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还能降

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没有理由降

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然后对于大家的持股

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我不知道大家有多少持股

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我自己的持股是我今天把半导体的高BA的股票几乎清光

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几乎清光

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虽然我我个人我个人这个交易我是非常不提倡的

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没有我我昨天有有一小部分仓位去博弈

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可能博一个DRAM就就反弹了

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就是我今天是打了止损

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包括我的大总体仓位我都降

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都卖高贝塔的台积电啊

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加RAN啊

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半导体啊

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这一坨东西都会在都会扔

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然后我剩下有几个股票

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我没下重手

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我甲骨文也下重手了啊

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甲骨文我也下重手了

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就是我我感觉这一不是感觉吧

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我从期权的结构来看的话

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好像是配对交易是是失效嗯

238
00:12:53,090 --> 00:12:54,149
配对交易失效

239
00:12:54,149 --> 00:12:55,809
我我现在看不清牌面

240
00:12:55,809 --> 00:12:59,509
因为大家能够看见IGV是红是涨的

241
00:12:59,509 --> 00:13:00,870
拼命涨的还红

242
00:13:00,870 --> 00:13:03,789
红彤彤的半导体继续往下跌的

243
00:13:03,789 --> 00:13:05,710
或者是半导体

244
00:13:06,908 --> 00:13:08,769
两个哥们对吧

245
00:13:08,769 --> 00:13:10,149
相反的走势的话

246
00:13:10,149 --> 00:13:11,749
那就还行

247
00:13:15,519 --> 00:13:23,179
DRAM这些东西其实它不就是它就是一个盗号的什么存储

248
00:13:23,659 --> 00:13:30,440
你主要是看你嗯SK海力士和镁光这两样东西

249
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,279
这两个新东西不止跌

250
00:13:32,279 --> 00:13:35,309
DRAM嗯也不会止跌

251
00:13:35,509 --> 00:13:39,490
所以说这样级别因为没不知道

252
00:13:39,490 --> 00:13:43,220
因为现在因为涨的时候也不知道涨那么多

253
00:13:43,220 --> 00:13:48,309
贴的时候已也没法用这种

254
00:13:48,710 --> 00:13:55,600
也根本没法用这种这种什么这种均线系统去看吧

255
00:13:56,159 --> 00:13:57,639
宝宝们

256
00:14:00,309 --> 00:14:02,629
我我我个人我我先说一下

257
00:14:02,629 --> 00:14:04,429
我不知道有新粉有没有

258
00:14:04,429 --> 00:14:07,580
我个人是从17岁才开始投资的

259
00:14:07,580 --> 00:14:09,600
然后我是00年

260
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:19,350
然后目前投资生涯是9年九年嗯嗯就是这种级别的上涨

261
00:14:19,629 --> 00:14:24,590
不是有不是由一步一个台阶上的话

262
00:14:24,590 --> 00:14:27,429
下跌回调的力度会非常猛

263
00:14:27,429 --> 00:14:30,210
这种时候如果看均线做交易

264
00:14:30,210 --> 00:14:33,818
除非你要看100日到200日均线

265
00:14:34,139 --> 00:14:39,078
我一般来说就是比较喜欢看150日均线做交易

266
00:14:39,078 --> 00:14:42,830
然后如果你是想要看50日

267
00:14:42,830 --> 00:14:43,549
20日

268
00:14:43,549 --> 00:14:44,830
10日五日

269
00:14:44,830 --> 00:14:47,950
我可以很负责的告诉大家

270
00:14:47,950 --> 00:14:49,904
几乎都会失效

271
00:14:51,799 --> 00:14:53,870
几乎都会失效

272
00:14:54,230 --> 00:14:56,789
因为因为你的50日均线

273
00:14:56,789 --> 00:14:58,370
包括你的20日均线

274
00:14:58,370 --> 00:15:01,070
完全无法去衡量

275
00:15:01,070 --> 00:15:01,970
去判

276
00:15:01,970 --> 00:15:04,590
去量化你的卖盘

277
00:15:04,590 --> 00:15:06,950
你的麦的那种恐慌

278
00:15:06,950 --> 00:15:07,950
那种情绪

279
00:15:07,950 --> 00:15:09,929
在不懂吗

280
00:15:09,929 --> 00:15:10,769
宝宝们

281
00:15:10,769 --> 00:15:14,090
就在在在我投资这么多生涯里面

282
00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:16,009
他没有办法去成长

283
00:15:16,009 --> 00:15:21,950
因为你的50均线咳没有办法就很好就衡量这个问题

284
00:15:21,950 --> 00:15:23,789
然后我目前不在国内

285
00:15:23,789 --> 00:15:25,409
我还在山东这一边

286
00:15:25,409 --> 00:15:28,769
我刚刚就刚刚嗯毕业

287
00:15:28,769 --> 00:15:30,289
刚刚拍完毕业照

288
00:15:30,289 --> 00:15:35,000
然后因为我可能还要去潍坊一趟

289
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:36,899
这个我老是在潍坊

290
00:15:36,899 --> 00:15:41,629
现在可能到时候会去青岛或者在济南东边嗯

291
00:15:41,629 --> 00:15:43,289
住着挺舒服的

292
00:15:43,289 --> 00:15:45,269
我也挺喜欢那个气候

293
00:15:45,269 --> 00:15:47,029
就这样

294
00:15:47,730 --> 00:15:50,649
然后就这样了

295
00:15:50,649 --> 00:15:55,110
所以所以说所以说大家现在还不用太恐慌

296
00:15:55,110 --> 00:15:59,590
还能够还能就是最起码是第一天嘛

297
00:15:59,590 --> 00:16:03,559
昨天是一个是一个比较多人是博弈的

298
00:16:03,559 --> 00:16:05,360
很多股票都是下跌

299
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:06,679
然后又拉升的

300
00:16:06,679 --> 00:16:08,840
我相信大家应该都都看得见

301
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:09,539
对吧

302
00:16:09,539 --> 00:16:11,750
咳啊对呀

303
00:16:11,750 --> 00:16:13,350
不回广东了呀

304
00:16:13,350 --> 00:16:14,590
我妈咪吧

305
00:16:15,590 --> 00:16:17,909
我妈妈说就是广东太热了

306
00:16:17,909 --> 00:16:19,684
太潮湿了

307
00:16:25,899 --> 00:16:28,179
什么完了完了我都没看见

308
00:16:28,179 --> 00:16:30,720
我拿个手机就那里看你们评论

309
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,539
我也看不见市场怎么反应

310
00:16:33,789 --> 00:16:35,830
就是广东太热了

311
00:16:35,830 --> 00:16:37,850
然后也很潮湿

312
00:16:37,850 --> 00:16:42,990
然后我之前有一段时间我去我去小茅屋

313
00:16:42,990 --> 00:16:44,610
我我在青岛

314
00:16:44,610 --> 00:16:45,789
然后我我操

315
00:16:45,789 --> 00:16:46,830
我老喜欢青岛

316
00:16:46,830 --> 00:16:48,700
那那那气候了

317
00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:50,700
虽然在山东还是比较湿

318
00:16:50,700 --> 00:16:53,620
可是很舒服很舒服很舒服

319
00:16:53,620 --> 00:16:57,870
但我就想要去留青岛或者是济南的东边

320
00:16:57,870 --> 00:17:00,370
对济南东边很舒服

321
00:17:00,370 --> 00:17:09,608
这气候我也很喜欢咳对反正我我我是我是在盘前5分钟啊

322
00:17:09,608 --> 00:17:11,729
15分钟到盘

323
00:17:11,729 --> 00:17:13,189
盘一开盘的时候

324
00:17:13,189 --> 00:17:15,849
直接就就就直接看

325
00:17:15,849 --> 00:17:18,089
就我不是这样的

326
00:17:18,369 --> 00:17:22,009
我因为我投资我投资我

327
00:17:22,009 --> 00:17:25,269
大家应该都知道我是怎样选手

328
00:17:25,549 --> 00:17:31,269
左西右东东边是不是在丽丽城啊

329
00:17:31,269 --> 00:17:33,069
不立夏好像对吧

330
00:17:33,069 --> 00:17:34,845
立夏那边

331
00:17:36,579 --> 00:17:41,980
啊不至于你要因为我我个人是做做期权的

332
00:17:42,099 --> 00:17:43,339
我做期权的时候

333
00:17:43,339 --> 00:17:48,720
我会对期权的交易量还有结构我会特别敏感

334
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:49,680
就这样

335
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,929
然后我今天盘前的时候看见这个期权交易有点不太对

336
00:17:54,288 --> 00:18:00,469
另外是做期权的人和普通的交易的他有点不一样

337
00:18:00,469 --> 00:18:01,969
就是

338
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:07,079
这么多年来做期权的经验告诉我三个道理

339
00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:08,240
我能活下来

340
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,799
我能赚到钱或者怎么样

341
00:18:09,799 --> 00:18:12,319
第一个比别人更聪明

342
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:17,589
你要不就是像上一在25年发觉了镁光那样

343
00:18:17,589 --> 00:18:19,210
你等他没人买的时候

344
00:18:19,210 --> 00:18:20,329
他IV巨便宜

345
00:18:20,329 --> 00:18:22,450
期权很便宜时候你买

346
00:18:22,450 --> 00:18:25,009
要不你就比别人更快

347
00:18:25,289 --> 00:18:27,049
我不知道今天会发生什么

348
00:18:27,049 --> 00:18:30,150
我不知道这个事实是不是真的就绷不住了

349
00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:31,690
这个大盘啊

350
00:18:31,690 --> 00:18:33,529
股票也绷不住了

351
00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:40,099
呃就是你要不比别人更快反应啊

352
00:18:40,099 --> 00:18:40,619
我不管了

353
00:18:40,619 --> 00:18:42,140
我今天真的出现问题

354
00:18:42,140 --> 00:18:44,440
真的真的很大问题

355
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:45,819
消息也不行

356
00:18:45,819 --> 00:18:47,220
宏观东西也不行

357
00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:48,000
直接卖

358
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:49,200
要不比人更快

359
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,460
要不比别人会骗人

360
00:18:51,460 --> 00:18:53,400
怎么会骗人

361
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:58,240
比如说像一些做基金经理的这一些

362
00:18:58,849 --> 00:19:02,450
我我这几我这我这好多年了

363
00:19:02,450 --> 00:19:04,849
9年差不多快10年时间

364
00:19:04,849 --> 00:19:07,460
我遇到都都是这种人

365
00:19:07,460 --> 00:19:11,779
基本上都是这靠着这三个点赚钱的

366
00:19:13,140 --> 00:19:16,720
然后你说的是纳斯达克直接横盘四个月

367
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,039
然后大跌哦

368
00:19:18,039 --> 00:19:19,740
我我个人是不觉得

369
00:19:19,740 --> 00:19:21,420
我个人是不觉得的

370
00:19:22,579 --> 00:19:25,279
我个人是不觉得的

371
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,599
我个人是不觉得的

372
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:32,910
因为因为什么

373
00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:34,349
我个人是不觉得呢

374
00:19:34,349 --> 00:19:36,470
因为是筹码的问题

375
00:19:36,470 --> 00:19:39,329
宝宝们是筹码的问题

376
00:19:39,329 --> 00:19:41,630
因为涨上来的筹码才是真空的

377
00:19:42,710 --> 00:19:47,960
你虽然看见他交易到就是所谓的大跌

378
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:53,069
你你说的所谓横盘四个月之后的大跌

379
00:19:53,670 --> 00:19:57,880
这个大跌它可能可能就跌个五个点

380
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,519
可能就跌个三三个点吧

381
00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:04,039
可是前面的7%的回调

382
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,779
它都是没有筹码的真空区域

383
00:20:10,019 --> 00:20:14,019
虽然你看成交量可能大部分都集中在后面

384
00:20:14,019 --> 00:20:15,369
3%

385
00:20:15,369 --> 00:20:18,609
可是百前7%它是真空的呀

386
00:20:18,609 --> 00:20:22,650
它价格的波动区间很大

387
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:29,720
是不是回调了还可能再次新高

388
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:43,730
就是我在呃呃上上个月直播的时候

389
00:20:43,730 --> 00:20:47,150
我跟大家有提到一个观点

390
00:20:47,150 --> 00:20:49,589
就是纳指能不能创新高

391
00:20:49,589 --> 00:20:55,609
这一个不是由这个不是由结构决定

392
00:20:55,609 --> 00:20:59,450
它更多是由商业决定

393
00:20:59,450 --> 00:21:04,269
那几个云厂商他如果没法变现

394
00:21:05,069 --> 00:21:07,910
他如果没法变现的话

395
00:21:08,740 --> 00:21:11,319
不是他没法做交

396
00:21:11,319 --> 00:21:15,420
如果有我那几个云厂商

397
00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:18,180
他没法做云计算的变现的话

398
00:21:19,220 --> 00:21:23,809
他不会有你明年还支出这么大的话

399
00:21:23,809 --> 00:21:26,380
他直接就会惩罚你

400
00:21:26,980 --> 00:21:32,519
你的8300点的纳斯达克100永远都到不了

401
00:21:32,519 --> 00:21:33,700
永远都到不了

402
00:21:33,700 --> 00:21:37,789
他这个这个是他的一个就是一个商业的逻辑

403
00:21:37,789 --> 00:21:40,150
在市场会交易

404
00:21:40,150 --> 00:21:47,000
你的所有花的任何一分钱都会都会是一个沉默的成本

405
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,140
不再是像谷歌那样交易

406
00:21:50,140 --> 00:21:50,980
是这种

407
00:21:50,980 --> 00:21:56,359
而且大家可以发现市场现在对资本支出过大

408
00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:01,720
这个问题还是比较那啥还是比较惩罚

409
00:22:02,269 --> 00:22:06,289
那么OK那那我们明天再说吧

410
00:22:06,289 --> 00:22:08,079
行吗啊

411
00:22:08,079 --> 00:22:12,880
我我个人是建议大家还是不要不要先先不要买入了

412
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,829
因为你你买入的时候

413
00:22:15,829 --> 00:22:20,029
你得考虑过我买的是不是要什么时候涨啊对吧

414
00:22:20,029 --> 00:22:21,539
你什么时候涨

415
00:22:21,539 --> 00:22:22,779
那你买入的时候

416
00:22:22,779 --> 00:22:23,920
你看见大盘在跌

417
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:25,299
哎呀我也老心慌了

418
00:22:25,299 --> 00:22:27,180
你等大盘回调差不多了

419
00:22:27,180 --> 00:22:28,460
或者有一个止跌形态

420
00:22:28,460 --> 00:22:29,329
你再买

421
00:22:29,329 --> 00:22:31,230
然后甲骨文怎么办

422
00:22:31,230 --> 00:22:34,589
甲骨文的话一一样一样一样一样

423
00:22:34,589 --> 00:22:37,250
因为甲骨文也是一样的

424
00:22:37,250 --> 00:22:41,460
甲骨文它的一个真空区域是非常大的

425
00:22:41,460 --> 00:22:42,819
他那两三天时间

426
00:22:42,819 --> 00:22:50,769
他照样所有的真就所有的真空区域涨上去的股票都不安全的

427
00:22:51,130 --> 00:22:52,130
好嘞

428
00:22:52,130 --> 00:22:55,369
OKOK那我们明天明天再看

429
00:22:55,369 --> 00:22:56,799
嗯拜拜

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