BV1aDFUzkE1f · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,940 --> 00:00:02,339 你好 2 00:00:02,339 --> 00:00:03,379 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:03,379 --> 00:00:04,820 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:05,820 --> 00:00:07,160 接下来的八节课 5 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,300 我们来讲突破 6 00:00:13,460 --> 00:00:17,600 首先我会讲到底什么是突破 7 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,039 然后我会讲到我的80%法则 8 00:00:21,039 --> 00:00:22,519 某种程度上来说 9 00:00:22,519 --> 00:00:25,839 80%突破的尝试会失败 10 00:00:26,570 --> 00:00:28,949 接着我会讲解为什么反转也是突破柱 11 00:00:28,949 --> 00:00:31,690 广义的突破只尝试改变市场周期 12 00:00:32,439 --> 00:00:34,000 最后我会讲到 13 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,600 由于震荡区间内大部分突破会失败 14 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,359 交易者需要高抛低吸做包头皮交易 15 00:00:45,380 --> 00:00:48,500 突破由一根趋势K线或一系列趋势K线组成 16 00:00:48,500 --> 00:00:51,179 所以你在图上看到的每根趋势K线及大阳线 17 00:00:51,179 --> 00:00:52,689 大阴线都是一次突破 18 00:00:52,689 --> 00:00:54,929 有时你会看到一系列的趋势K线 19 00:00:54,929 --> 00:00:56,509 他们共同组成了一次突破 20 00:00:56,509 --> 00:00:57,689 这里是空头突破 21 00:00:57,689 --> 00:00:59,649 那里是多头突破 22 00:01:01,979 --> 00:01:03,439 突破可以是单根K线 23 00:01:03,439 --> 00:01:06,340 也可能会继续发展成多根K线 24 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,700 突破指的是价格超过某个支撑或阻力 25 00:01:17,140 --> 00:01:18,939 比如这个多头突破 26 00:01:18,939 --> 00:01:21,680 他突破了市场的几个阻力位 27 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,849 首先他至少突破了前一根K线的最高点 28 00:01:25,849 --> 00:01:29,709 然后他突破了下降趋势中的重要高点 29 00:01:29,709 --> 00:01:32,228 它也突破了下降趋势线 30 00:01:32,228 --> 00:01:33,828 它也突破了均线 31 00:01:33,828 --> 00:01:35,668 通常指的是M20 32 00:01:35,668 --> 00:01:38,150 这里有一个双底被跌破了 33 00:01:38,150 --> 00:01:42,530 空投把它看作是一个小的头肩顶啊 34 00:01:43,370 --> 00:01:45,870 左肩头部右肩跌破颈线 35 00:01:45,870 --> 00:01:46,709 但是失败了 36 00:01:46,709 --> 00:01:49,069 多头制造了一个微型双底 37 00:01:49,069 --> 00:01:50,390 空头尝试砸盘 38 00:01:50,390 --> 00:01:51,469 被多头埋起来了 39 00:01:51,469 --> 00:01:52,849 空投再次尝试砸盘 40 00:01:52,849 --> 00:01:54,859 而多头更积极的买入 41 00:01:54,859 --> 00:01:57,379 制造了一个很好的做多信号 42 00:01:57,379 --> 00:01:58,500 K 43 00:01:59,549 --> 00:02:00,969 在这个案例中 44 00:02:00,969 --> 00:02:02,629 价格跌破了双底 45 00:02:02,629 --> 00:02:05,709 然后又很快回到双底上方 46 00:02:05,989 --> 00:02:07,588 所以这是一次突破 47 00:02:07,588 --> 00:02:10,229 回到双底上方的突破 48 00:02:14,780 --> 00:02:16,580 随着突破的发展 49 00:02:16,580 --> 00:02:20,900 多头试图突破越来越多的阻力位 50 00:02:24,580 --> 00:02:26,500 这里价格突破了均线 51 00:02:26,500 --> 00:02:29,979 而且看他最终的收盘价收在均线的上方 52 00:02:33,199 --> 00:02:34,900 我总是关注趋势线 53 00:02:34,900 --> 00:02:36,819 趋势线有不同的画法 54 00:02:36,819 --> 00:02:39,150 可以连接这两个高点 55 00:02:39,150 --> 00:02:42,210 或者连接这个高点和那个高点 56 00:02:42,210 --> 00:02:47,509 很明显价格也在突破这条下降趋势线 57 00:02:52,259 --> 00:02:55,060 刚才说价格突破了这根阴线的高点 58 00:02:55,060 --> 00:02:59,319 同时我也很关注下降趋势中前期的重要高点 59 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,879 市场突破的阻力越多 60 00:03:01,879 --> 00:03:07,120 后续有第二甚至第三段上涨的可能性就越大 61 00:03:09,900 --> 00:03:12,659 价格突破了前期的重要高点 62 00:03:14,068 --> 00:03:17,308 又突破了一个重要高点 63 00:03:17,990 --> 00:03:21,030 这时你可以说它是震荡区间 64 00:03:22,270 --> 00:03:23,770 每个头肩顶的结构 65 00:03:23,770 --> 00:03:27,019 左肩头右肩都是震荡区间 66 00:03:27,019 --> 00:03:29,199 也许震荡区间是从这里开始的 67 00:03:29,199 --> 00:03:32,990 下跌上涨下跌上涨下跌上涨 68 00:03:33,150 --> 00:03:34,930 它是下降趋势中的重要高点 69 00:03:34,930 --> 00:03:36,509 也是震荡区间的高点 70 00:03:36,509 --> 00:03:38,210 价格尝试突破区间的底部 71 00:03:38,210 --> 00:03:40,509 然后又尝试突破区间的顶部 72 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:49,110 我的80%法则是市场具有惯性 73 00:03:49,270 --> 00:03:51,210 在80%的时间里 74 00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:52,650 他们会抗拒变化 75 00:03:52,650 --> 00:03:55,210 所以如果市场处于趋势中 76 00:03:55,210 --> 00:03:58,300 80%反转的尝试会失败 77 00:03:58,300 --> 00:04:00,419 如果市场处于震荡区间中 78 00:04:00,419 --> 00:04:03,460 80%突破的尝试会失败 79 00:04:03,829 --> 00:04:04,609 很无奈 80 00:04:04,609 --> 00:04:05,549 但这是现实 81 00:04:05,549 --> 00:04:07,028 市场突破了这个低点 82 00:04:07,028 --> 00:04:08,460 结果反转向上 83 00:04:08,460 --> 00:04:09,960 突破了这个高点 84 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:11,139 反转向下 85 00:04:11,139 --> 00:04:14,469 所有突破的尝试都被反转了 86 00:04:14,469 --> 00:04:15,969 新高失败 87 00:04:15,969 --> 00:04:17,430 新低失败 88 00:04:17,430 --> 00:04:20,329 尝试反转向上失败 89 00:04:20,569 --> 00:04:21,968 新低失败 90 00:04:21,968 --> 00:04:24,418 突破了这个高点失败 91 00:04:24,418 --> 00:04:25,538 突破了这个高点 92 00:04:25,538 --> 00:04:26,939 回调突破了这个高点 93 00:04:26,939 --> 00:04:28,178 尝试反转失败了 94 00:04:28,178 --> 00:04:29,658 再次尝试向下反转 95 00:04:29,658 --> 00:04:30,899 这次成功了 96 00:04:30,899 --> 00:04:34,119 而且价格跌破了这个上涨趋势的底部 97 00:04:34,119 --> 00:04:37,298 但向下的突破失败了 98 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,920 关于突破的另一个重要点是 99 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,100 在任何图上 100 00:04:47,300 --> 00:04:48,699 任何时间周期 101 00:04:48,699 --> 00:04:52,000 只有大约10%的K线处于突破中 102 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,579 并且有后续的行情 103 00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:58,100 比如这张图上面可能有100根K线 104 00:04:58,100 --> 00:04:59,560 在这里有几根K线 105 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,519 这里有几根K线 106 00:05:01,519 --> 00:05:03,040 这里有几根K线 107 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:04,459 那里还有几根K线 108 00:05:04,459 --> 00:05:08,230 但只有10%的K线是有后续行情的 109 00:05:08,430 --> 00:05:10,790 这个空头突破它有小的第二段下跌 110 00:05:10,790 --> 00:05:13,180 这个多头突破后面又涨了一点 111 00:05:13,180 --> 00:05:15,319 这个空头突破是成功的 112 00:05:15,319 --> 00:05:15,899 大幅的 113 00:05:15,899 --> 00:05:16,620 第二段下跌 114 00:05:16,620 --> 00:05:17,939 图上的大部分K线 115 00:05:17,939 --> 00:05:20,699 90%的K线就算体积很大 116 00:05:20,699 --> 00:05:21,920 它要么在通道内 117 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,259 要么在震荡区间内 118 00:05:28,620 --> 00:05:31,220 当市场处于通道或震荡区间内时 119 00:05:31,220 --> 00:05:34,939 80%的突破都不会走的很远 120 00:05:38,819 --> 00:05:41,000 连续两根不错的阳线 121 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,019 尤其是第二根后面是一根阴线 122 00:05:44,019 --> 00:05:45,850 形成牛起 123 00:05:46,129 --> 00:05:48,649 你可以说这是两根K线的回调回调 124 00:05:48,649 --> 00:05:49,970 从这根阴线开始 125 00:05:49,970 --> 00:05:52,329 它又跌破了前一根K线的低点 126 00:05:52,329 --> 00:05:55,389 所以它符合这个时间周期下回调的定义 127 00:05:55,389 --> 00:05:57,410 同时也大约是50%回调 128 00:05:57,410 --> 00:05:58,410 并且它是阳线 129 00:05:58,410 --> 00:05:59,589 它的上影线很长 130 00:05:59,589 --> 00:06:02,430 而且前面是一根大的反转阴线 131 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,600 不是高胜率的做多机会 132 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,259 但此时市场仍处于上涨趋势 133 00:06:07,259 --> 00:06:08,480 它是高一牛企 134 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,319 所以是一个买点 135 00:06:11,509 --> 00:06:14,870 但这样的牛骑经常会突破失败 136 00:06:14,870 --> 00:06:17,550 然后反转向下 137 00:06:21,879 --> 00:06:23,959 有些交易者会在这根K线的高点上方 138 00:06:23,959 --> 00:06:26,300 用突破买单入场做多压住 139 00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:27,980 就算这次突破不成功 140 00:06:27,980 --> 00:06:29,740 继续回调几根K线 141 00:06:29,740 --> 00:06:32,908 只要价格仍然保持在起涨点上方 142 00:06:32,908 --> 00:06:34,548 出现高二或高三之后 143 00:06:34,548 --> 00:06:37,540 可能会恢复上涨趋势啊 144 00:06:39,319 --> 00:06:40,560 正如之前所说 145 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,160 这个高一牛旗并不好 146 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:43,480 上影线太长了 147 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,360 下影线也很长 148 00:06:45,529 --> 00:06:47,949 实体部分远远不到整根K线高度的一半 149 00:06:47,949 --> 00:06:48,810 所以在我眼中 150 00:06:48,810 --> 00:06:50,279 他就是一个十字星 151 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:52,839 当买入的多头看到这根K线 152 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,449 也就是他们的入场K线 153 00:06:55,610 --> 00:06:56,889 他们会感到失望 154 00:06:56,889 --> 00:06:58,470 他们不想看到一根阴线 155 00:06:58,470 --> 00:07:02,050 他们不希望看到K线收盘在一半以下 156 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:04,139 这告诉我们 157 00:07:04,139 --> 00:07:08,620 在这根K线的高点上方有更多的卖家 158 00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:16,089 而不是买家坏的高一经常会有空头去做空 159 00:07:20,620 --> 00:07:23,740 压住大多数突破的尝试会失败 160 00:07:23,740 --> 00:07:25,879 在两根K线突破后 161 00:07:25,879 --> 00:07:29,480 这是一个相当不错的反转阴线 162 00:07:29,980 --> 00:07:31,819 而且它不是一个好的做多信号 163 00:07:31,819 --> 00:07:35,060 K线至少在这个高易反向做空 164 00:07:35,060 --> 00:07:37,500 是一笔合理的包头皮交易 165 00:07:37,699 --> 00:07:39,060 压住突破回调之后 166 00:07:39,060 --> 00:07:41,579 第一次恢复上涨的尝试会失败 167 00:07:47,939 --> 00:07:53,220 大阳线多头突破空头尝试让这次突破失败 168 00:07:53,670 --> 00:07:56,769 他的低点跌破了前一根K线的低点 169 00:07:56,769 --> 00:08:00,269 一些交易者压住多头突破失败 170 00:08:00,579 --> 00:08:02,019 在这根阴线的最低点下方 171 00:08:02,019 --> 00:08:03,720 一个K用突破卖单入场做空 172 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:05,120 压住突破失败 173 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,579 价格会反转下跌 174 00:08:09,038 --> 00:08:12,738 重复一些交易者在这根阴线的最低点下方做空 175 00:08:12,738 --> 00:08:13,559 压住多头 176 00:08:13,559 --> 00:08:15,119 突破失败 177 00:08:16,060 --> 00:08:19,100 每次反转都突破了一些东西 178 00:08:19,100 --> 00:08:20,620 比如这根阴线 179 00:08:20,620 --> 00:08:24,180 应该把它看作是一次突破 180 00:08:26,079 --> 00:08:28,399 如果我从这根K线的低点到他的高点 181 00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:29,240 画一条趋势线 182 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:30,680 更小时间级别上的趋势线 183 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,158 这条线是垂直的 184 00:08:32,158 --> 00:08:35,950 或者从这根K线的低点到那根K线的高点 185 00:08:35,950 --> 00:08:37,570 在更小时间级别上 186 00:08:37,570 --> 00:08:38,690 它是一条趋势线 187 00:08:38,690 --> 00:08:42,159 而这根阴线向下反转的时候跌破了趋势线 188 00:08:42,159 --> 00:08:43,440 我的观点是 189 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,740 每当我看到头突破后有向下反转的尝试 190 00:08:46,740 --> 00:08:50,179 我把它看作是一次空投突破的尝试 191 00:08:50,419 --> 00:08:51,759 我是这样看的 192 00:08:51,759 --> 00:08:54,379 我把他当做突破一样来看待 193 00:08:54,379 --> 00:08:56,720 当然这并不是一个明显的突破 194 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,100 但他是一次反转的尝试 195 00:08:58,100 --> 00:08:59,740 我认为每一次反转的尝试 196 00:08:59,740 --> 00:09:02,019 也都是一次突破的尝试 197 00:09:03,879 --> 00:09:05,820 那么哪个突破更强呢 198 00:09:05,820 --> 00:09:08,679 多头突破还是空头突破 199 00:09:09,220 --> 00:09:11,700 显然多头突破更强 200 00:09:13,100 --> 00:09:16,940 因此在他下方做空并不是一笔高胜率的交易 201 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,480 空投选择卖出做空压住反转下跌 202 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,019 他们知道自己的胜率很低 203 00:09:25,019 --> 00:09:26,639 但他们的风险也很低 204 00:09:26,639 --> 00:09:29,519 他们把止损放在信号K线的高点上方 205 00:09:29,519 --> 00:09:32,990 或大阳线的高点上方压住 206 00:09:32,990 --> 00:09:34,029 会有一个大的反转 207 00:09:35,590 --> 00:09:36,190 胜率低 208 00:09:36,190 --> 00:09:38,429 但是盈亏比很好 209 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,799 这根阴线不够强大到可以反转 210 00:09:42,799 --> 00:09:44,759 所以在这根K线的低点下方 211 00:09:44,759 --> 00:09:45,899 可能有更多的买家 212 00:09:45,899 --> 00:09:47,370 而不是卖家 213 00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:49,289 显然如果你是空头 214 00:09:49,289 --> 00:09:50,190 并且做空了 215 00:09:50,190 --> 00:09:52,970 你不喜欢看到后面收了一根阳线入场 216 00:09:52,970 --> 00:09:54,190 K线不是一根阴线 217 00:09:54,190 --> 00:09:55,350 收在最低 218 00:09:55,350 --> 00:09:57,690 这不是你希望看到的 219 00:09:57,690 --> 00:10:00,350 所以很多空头感到失望 220 00:10:00,350 --> 00:10:03,110 再次尝试反转下跌 221 00:10:03,399 --> 00:10:04,659 这是一根阴线 222 00:10:04,659 --> 00:10:05,480 但很弱 223 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,960 K线底部的下影线很长 224 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,039 所以这里有一根阴线尝试反转 225 00:10:10,039 --> 00:10:10,879 但后续是阳线 226 00:10:10,879 --> 00:10:11,740 空头再次尝试 227 00:10:11,740 --> 00:10:14,568 他没有能够收盘在前一根K线的低点下方 228 00:10:14,568 --> 00:10:15,749 就像他一样 229 00:10:15,749 --> 00:10:18,688 也没有能够收盘在他的下方 230 00:10:19,100 --> 00:10:21,659 这根阴线收盘在一半以上 231 00:10:21,659 --> 00:10:25,299 所以不是一个强势的突破 232 00:10:28,799 --> 00:10:29,720 这告诉我们 233 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,279 可能有更多的交易者相信反转不会成功 234 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,539 空头卖出压住多头 235 00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:36,840 突破会失败 236 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:41,720 但看起来有更多的多头在这根K线的低点下方 237 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:42,629 买入 238 00:10:42,629 --> 00:10:43,909 压住空头 239 00:10:43,909 --> 00:10:45,909 反转会失败 240 00:10:46,359 --> 00:10:47,619 这是合乎逻辑的 241 00:10:47,619 --> 00:10:49,958 因为大多数反转会失败 242 00:10:50,450 --> 00:10:51,649 大多数突破会失败 243 00:10:51,649 --> 00:10:53,450 大多数反转会失败 244 00:10:55,419 --> 00:10:57,399 如果交易者认为多头会胜利 245 00:10:57,399 --> 00:10:59,039 他应该在K线的上方追涨 246 00:10:59,039 --> 00:11:01,500 或者在下方逢低买入 247 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:08,840 看这段上涨三根阳线并不算特别强 248 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,240 因为都有上影线 249 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,360 但其中两根收盘价远高于终点 250 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:14,639 这根阳线的体积非常大 251 00:11:14,639 --> 00:11:16,480 并且收盘在前一根K线的高点上方 252 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,220 所以存在一个缺口 253 00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:20,659 可以在这个十字星的下方做空压住 254 00:11:20,659 --> 00:11:21,519 突破失败吗 255 00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:23,809 这里做空的胜率是很低的 256 00:11:23,809 --> 00:11:25,570 在这根K线的低点下方 257 00:11:25,570 --> 00:11:27,149 可能有更多的人愿意买入 258 00:11:27,149 --> 00:11:28,009 而不是卖出 259 00:11:28,009 --> 00:11:29,590 可能有一些空头会做空 260 00:11:29,590 --> 00:11:31,169 期待价格跌破其涨点 261 00:11:31,169 --> 00:11:33,605 然后向下去到MM目标位 262 00:11:34,519 --> 00:11:37,678 但连续三根阳线在下方很可能有更多的买家 263 00:11:37,678 --> 00:11:38,458 而不是卖家 264 00:11:38,458 --> 00:11:41,328 所以大概率更多的交易者会买入 265 00:11:41,328 --> 00:11:44,208 然而由于这三根阳线都没有收在最高 266 00:11:44,208 --> 00:11:45,729 而且不是连续的大阳线 267 00:11:45,729 --> 00:11:46,759 上影线太长 268 00:11:46,759 --> 00:11:47,879 小K线多头知道 269 00:11:47,879 --> 00:11:50,000 弱的突破很可能会有深度的回调 270 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,210 可能会变成震荡区间买入做多是可以的 271 00:11:54,210 --> 00:11:56,889 前提是使用正确的止损 272 00:11:57,850 --> 00:11:59,850 在这里有连续两根阳线 273 00:11:59,850 --> 00:12:00,870 它收在最高点 274 00:12:00,870 --> 00:12:03,029 而且价格保持在起涨点上方 275 00:12:03,029 --> 00:12:04,590 是低点抬高的双底 276 00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:06,389 这里入场做多的胜率更高 277 00:12:06,389 --> 00:12:07,429 风险也更小 278 00:12:07,429 --> 00:12:09,970 但这两个都是合理的买入 279 00:12:10,129 --> 00:12:12,809 在这里多头认为上涨非常强劲 280 00:12:12,809 --> 00:12:14,490 在下方更多人愿意买入 281 00:12:14,490 --> 00:12:15,429 而不是卖出 282 00:12:15,429 --> 00:12:17,549 而在这里他们看到低点抬高了 283 00:12:17,549 --> 00:12:19,409 连续两根阳线 284 00:12:19,870 --> 00:12:22,529 他们知道很多人愿意在他的上方买入 285 00:12:22,529 --> 00:12:24,490 所以在那根K线下方有买家 286 00:12:24,490 --> 00:12:27,110 在这根K线上方有买家 287 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,480 而空投恰好相反 288 00:12:34,450 --> 00:12:36,470 如果他认为空投会胜利 289 00:12:36,470 --> 00:12:37,960 他应该卖出 290 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,460 他可能会说额这个上涨也就一般般吧 291 00:12:41,460 --> 00:12:44,480 这个高一做多信号K有上影线 292 00:12:44,929 --> 00:12:46,289 这是小双顶的结构 293 00:12:46,289 --> 00:12:47,809 上涨下跌上涨 294 00:12:47,809 --> 00:12:52,169 下跌可能会进入一个窄的震荡区间 295 00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:55,409 我可以在这根K线的高点挂卖单 296 00:12:55,409 --> 00:12:56,529 压住趋势 297 00:12:56,529 --> 00:12:58,070 无法继续 298 00:12:58,070 --> 00:12:59,429 这根阴线走出来之后 299 00:12:59,429 --> 00:13:01,070 空投也可以在它的下方做空 300 00:13:01,070 --> 00:13:03,090 可以把它看作一个新的小双顶 301 00:13:03,090 --> 00:13:05,349 或者是一个小的三重顶 302 00:13:05,509 --> 00:13:09,249 上涨下跌上涨下跌上涨再次下跌 303 00:13:09,249 --> 00:13:11,250 阴线收盘在最低 304 00:13:11,250 --> 00:13:13,809 这是空投的第二做空入场点数低 305 00:13:13,809 --> 00:13:15,429 入场点是十字星的下方 306 00:13:15,429 --> 00:13:17,289 多头突破第一次做空失败 307 00:13:17,289 --> 00:13:18,690 又上涨了一点 308 00:13:18,690 --> 00:13:20,730 现在空投得到了更好的做空信号 309 00:13:20,730 --> 00:13:25,610 K线在他下方做空胜率要比刚才的十字星更高 310 00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:28,389 所以空投会再在这根K线上方卖出 311 00:13:28,389 --> 00:13:30,950 在那根K线下方卖出 312 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,340 很多时候事实上是 313 00:13:36,340 --> 00:13:40,080 大多数时候交易者并不确定市场会怎么做 314 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:41,919 这就是市场的本质 315 00:13:41,919 --> 00:13:43,220 看起来很混乱 316 00:13:43,220 --> 00:13:44,159 如果你不确定 317 00:13:44,159 --> 00:13:44,919 那就等待 318 00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:47,220 你应该在这根K线上方买入吗 319 00:13:47,220 --> 00:13:50,399 还是应该在这根K线上方卖出 320 00:13:50,769 --> 00:13:53,070 你应该在这根K线上方买入还是卖出 321 00:13:53,070 --> 00:13:55,269 你应该在这根K线下方买入还是卖出 322 00:13:55,269 --> 00:13:56,049 如果你不确定 323 00:13:56,049 --> 00:13:57,929 最好的选择是等待 324 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:08,200 我刚才讲了可以突破支撑和阻力的案例 325 00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:12,000 突破的类型重要吗 326 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,600 突破前期的高点或低点 327 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:16,639 突破趋势线还是移动平均线 328 00:14:16,639 --> 00:14:17,990 这都不重要 329 00:14:17,990 --> 00:14:20,149 重要的是突破了 330 00:14:20,149 --> 00:14:21,830 如果你是新手 331 00:14:21,830 --> 00:14:24,759 你甚至不一定知道什么东西被突破了 332 00:14:24,759 --> 00:14:26,320 但这不是关键 333 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,100 如果突破足够强大 334 00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:32,320 你其实不需要知道到底什么被突破了 335 00:14:33,639 --> 00:14:36,789 每个大的趋势K线都是一次突破 336 00:14:36,789 --> 00:14:40,049 每一组的趋势K线都是一次突破 337 00:14:40,049 --> 00:14:43,509 在多头突破中K线越大 338 00:14:43,908 --> 00:14:45,688 他们的收盘价越接近最高点 339 00:14:45,688 --> 00:14:46,788 突破就越强 340 00:14:46,788 --> 00:14:50,229 越有可能至少会有第二段上涨 341 00:14:52,179 --> 00:14:55,700 这里三次向上推动123 342 00:14:55,700 --> 00:14:56,720 然后有一根阴线 343 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,480 所以它是一次空头突破 344 00:14:58,480 --> 00:14:59,460 这是一次反转 345 00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:01,120 每一次反转都是一次突破 346 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,279 然后他显然是一次突破 347 00:15:03,279 --> 00:15:05,120 但他突破了哪些东西 348 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:06,519 很多东西 349 00:15:06,519 --> 00:15:08,279 这是一个三推楔形顶 350 00:15:08,279 --> 00:15:10,639 它跌破了楔形的底部 351 00:15:11,289 --> 00:15:13,590 它跌破了上涨趋势线 352 00:15:13,590 --> 00:15:15,490 这里有一个非常大的阳线 353 00:15:15,490 --> 00:15:17,370 很多多头会把他们的保护性止损 354 00:15:17,370 --> 00:15:19,210 放在大阳线的低点下方 355 00:15:19,210 --> 00:15:21,509 所以它跌破了大阳线的底部 356 00:15:21,509 --> 00:15:24,889 跌破了抢购高潮的起涨点 357 00:15:29,399 --> 00:15:31,159 这里有一点反弹 358 00:15:31,159 --> 00:15:32,960 不如下跌那么强 359 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,679 上涨的跟随也不好 360 00:15:36,230 --> 00:15:37,389 不断有一些回调 361 00:15:37,389 --> 00:15:38,669 这里有一个小三角形 362 00:15:38,669 --> 00:15:40,250 多头尝试向上突破 363 00:15:40,250 --> 00:15:41,370 但失败了 364 00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:42,330 反转向下 365 00:15:42,330 --> 00:15:44,519 所以这是一个雄奇 366 00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:46,879 这是一个早期的下降趋势 367 00:15:46,879 --> 00:15:49,360 反弹回测前期高点 368 00:15:50,279 --> 00:15:51,960 交易者会把它看作雄奇 369 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,320 在价格跌破熊奇的时候开仓做空 370 00:15:55,559 --> 00:15:57,059 他们还会在这个低点下方 371 00:15:57,059 --> 00:15:59,970 在那个低点下方用突破卖单入场做空 372 00:16:00,129 --> 00:16:02,450 跌破趋势线的时候做空 373 00:16:02,450 --> 00:16:04,970 可以看到价格反弹到60分钟 374 00:16:04,970 --> 00:16:06,509 M20的时候遇到了阻力 375 00:16:06,509 --> 00:16:08,859 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟图 376 00:16:08,859 --> 00:16:11,918 多头没有能够突破60分钟的M20 377 00:16:11,918 --> 00:16:16,458 在这里这里这里这里和这里都突破失败 378 00:16:16,820 --> 00:16:19,299 现在又开始反转下跌 379 00:16:21,820 --> 00:16:23,840 空头突破反弹 380 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:25,759 这又是一个雄起 381 00:16:25,759 --> 00:16:27,820 继续下跌 382 00:16:31,779 --> 00:16:33,139 又一个小的雄奇 383 00:16:34,539 --> 00:16:38,340 这里是急速变通道的底部 384 00:16:38,929 --> 00:16:39,830 空头突破 385 00:16:39,830 --> 00:16:40,830 价格急速下跌 386 00:16:40,830 --> 00:16:41,889 三次向下的推动 387 00:16:41,889 --> 00:16:44,970 123形成一个三推楔形底 388 00:16:45,539 --> 00:16:47,580 多头再次尝试反转向上 389 00:16:47,580 --> 00:16:50,860 每一根阳线都是一个上涨趋势 390 00:16:50,860 --> 00:16:53,460 K线它是一次突破 391 00:16:53,460 --> 00:16:56,090 尝试突破楔形底 392 00:16:56,090 --> 00:16:58,009 当下降通道这么窄的时候 393 00:16:58,009 --> 00:16:59,710 即使上涨看上去很强势 394 00:16:59,710 --> 00:17:02,090 它仍然更有可能只是一次小反转 395 00:17:02,090 --> 00:17:04,259 使震荡区间内的一段上涨 396 00:17:04,259 --> 00:17:06,599 而不是上涨趋势的开始 397 00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:10,740 这意味着价格可能需要再次向下测试 398 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,339 在这里低点抬高了 399 00:17:14,339 --> 00:17:16,039 多头希望制造大反转 400 00:17:16,039 --> 00:17:17,599 然而当下降通道这么窄的时候 401 00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:19,650 反转的概率是很低的 402 00:17:19,849 --> 00:17:22,809 先是跌破了这个低点 403 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:25,720 然后再突破这个高点 404 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,099 它是重要的高点吗 405 00:17:27,099 --> 00:17:29,180 这是大反转上涨趋势的开始吗 406 00:17:29,180 --> 00:17:31,730 不是这不是一个重要的高点 407 00:17:31,730 --> 00:17:34,349 他的后面没有强势的空头突破 408 00:17:34,349 --> 00:17:36,009 没有创造新的低点 409 00:17:36,009 --> 00:17:38,009 所以它是一个次要的高点 410 00:17:38,009 --> 00:17:40,410 多头突破没有走很远 411 00:17:40,410 --> 00:17:45,210 再下一根K线立刻反转向下了 412 00:17:46,660 --> 00:17:47,660 继续下跌 413 00:17:47,660 --> 00:17:49,900 然后又有两段式的反弹 414 00:17:49,900 --> 00:17:51,259 第一第二 415 00:17:51,259 --> 00:17:53,779 所以它又是一个雄起 416 00:17:54,130 --> 00:17:56,269 跌破雄起尝试形成双底 417 00:17:56,269 --> 00:17:58,009 跌破双底后又涨回来 418 00:17:58,009 --> 00:17:59,609 所以这是三推歇行底 419 00:17:59,609 --> 00:18:03,309 三次向下推动双底一二 420 00:18:03,309 --> 00:18:04,430 如果市场跌破 421 00:18:04,430 --> 00:18:06,950 它就是第三次向下推动 422 00:18:06,950 --> 00:18:09,029 即使他看上去三点不在一条线上 423 00:18:09,029 --> 00:18:09,630 不像楔形 424 00:18:09,630 --> 00:18:10,869 但他是楔形的一个变体 425 00:18:10,869 --> 00:18:12,230 这也是一个嵌套式楔形 426 00:18:12,230 --> 00:18:13,710 因为它在一个更大的楔形内 427 00:18:13,710 --> 00:18:14,920 123 428 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,660 然后有一根大阳线开始向上反转 429 00:18:18,660 --> 00:18:23,339 多头试图突破楔形下降通道 430 00:18:24,140 --> 00:18:26,460 试图形成一个小双底 431 00:18:27,319 --> 00:18:28,940 小双底被跌破 432 00:18:28,940 --> 00:18:31,519 再次尝试筑底 433 00:18:32,829 --> 00:18:35,369 跌破后立刻涨了回来 434 00:18:35,369 --> 00:18:37,690 这个多头突破是很强势的 435 00:18:37,690 --> 00:18:38,390 大幅突破 436 00:18:38,390 --> 00:18:40,559 并维持在均线的上方 437 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,339 它是均线缺口 438 00:18:42,339 --> 00:18:46,079 K线K线低点和均线之间存在缺口 439 00:18:46,079 --> 00:18:48,940 因此测试前期低点的下跌 440 00:18:48,940 --> 00:18:54,640 可能会是可能会是大反转之前的最后一次下跌 441 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,880 这是低点抬高的大反转模式 442 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:58,740 第二段上涨 443 00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:04,099 多头突破大约50%回调 444 00:19:04,099 --> 00:19:08,119 牛企这里的下跌比之前的上涨弱 445 00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:09,460 楔形底反转 446 00:19:09,460 --> 00:19:11,299 所以很可能有两段式上涨 447 00:19:11,299 --> 00:19:12,579 一回调12 448 00:19:12,579 --> 00:19:15,480 这也是一个低点抬高的大反转 449 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,119 下降通道是牛起向上突破 450 00:19:20,829 --> 00:19:21,549 继续上涨 451 00:19:21,549 --> 00:19:22,009 突破了 452 00:19:22,009 --> 00:19:23,589 突破了前面的次要高点 453 00:19:23,589 --> 00:19:25,430 空投尝试形成双顶 454 00:19:25,430 --> 00:19:29,329 双顶颈线空头突破没有发生 455 00:19:29,329 --> 00:19:31,609 双顶被向上突破了 456 00:19:31,609 --> 00:19:34,490 然后突破了这个高点 457 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,650 楔形上涨三次向上推动123 458 00:19:41,650 --> 00:19:43,490 其他电脑程序会这样看 459 00:19:43,490 --> 00:19:44,650 123 460 00:19:44,650 --> 00:19:45,450 无论如何 461 00:19:45,450 --> 00:19:46,789 这是一个上涨通道 462 00:19:46,789 --> 00:19:49,809 这里空头向下突破了上涨通道 463 00:19:51,099 --> 00:19:52,559 没有跌太多 464 00:19:52,559 --> 00:19:54,579 这是一个小下降通道 465 00:19:54,579 --> 00:19:59,000 牛起背向突破不是特别强 466 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,559 在60分钟的M20再次遇到阻力 467 00:20:02,559 --> 00:20:03,599 形成双顶 468 00:20:03,599 --> 00:20:05,619 高点略微降低的双顶 469 00:20:05,619 --> 00:20:07,920 然后向下跌破 470 00:20:09,299 --> 00:20:14,019 我之前说每一个趋势K线或一系列趋势K线 471 00:20:14,019 --> 00:20:14,980 都是一次突破 472 00:20:14,980 --> 00:20:17,420 但很多时候你看着K线图说啊 473 00:20:17,420 --> 00:20:19,619 什么东西被突破了 474 00:20:19,910 --> 00:20:22,069 总有一些东西被突破 475 00:20:22,069 --> 00:20:26,710 这张图就是很多小东西被突破的案例 476 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:28,740 我想告诉你 477 00:20:28,740 --> 00:20:30,759 计算机程序看到了哪些东西 478 00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:32,720 计算机不断的在寻找突破 479 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,930 这些就是不同的计算机在寻找的东西 480 00:20:35,930 --> 00:20:37,930 他们之中的大多数都是次要的 481 00:20:37,930 --> 00:20:40,529 并且大多数突破尝试会失败 482 00:20:42,980 --> 00:20:45,500 突破可以是单独一根趋势K线 483 00:20:45,500 --> 00:20:46,359 有很多次 484 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,000 它们表示的都是同一个意思 485 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,059 你可以称之为强趋势或强趋势K线 486 00:20:52,059 --> 00:20:55,220 一系列强趋势K线突破急速运动 487 00:20:55,220 --> 00:20:56,160 抢购高潮 488 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,619 制造了缺口反转 489 00:20:58,898 --> 00:21:00,138 这可能是一次反转 490 00:21:00,138 --> 00:21:01,219 如果左边是下跌 491 00:21:01,219 --> 00:21:03,950 然后在这里上涨反转都是一样的事情 492 00:21:03,950 --> 00:21:06,130 这些都是趋势K线的同义词 493 00:21:06,130 --> 00:21:07,630 这是一个上涨趋势 494 00:21:07,630 --> 00:21:09,509 K线大阳线 495 00:21:12,559 --> 00:21:14,680 我使用哪个词来描述它 496 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,519 取决于左边发生了什么 497 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:19,700 如果左边在下跌 498 00:21:19,700 --> 00:21:21,380 然后突然大阳线上涨 499 00:21:21,380 --> 00:21:22,680 我会称之为反转 500 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,559 它当然也是抢购入高潮是多头突破 501 00:21:25,559 --> 00:21:27,400 是急速上涨 502 00:21:28,210 --> 00:21:30,529 它的收盘价和某个东西 503 00:21:30,529 --> 00:21:33,710 比如前一根K线的高点之间 504 00:21:33,710 --> 00:21:36,849 很可能存在一个缺口 505 00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:39,319 但真正重要的是 506 00:21:39,319 --> 00:21:40,640 这是一根大阳线 507 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:41,400 它是突破 508 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,849 即使你不知道什么东西被突破了 509 00:21:43,849 --> 00:21:45,789 当你看到一根大阳线 510 00:21:45,789 --> 00:21:47,529 你就知道这是一次突破 511 00:21:47,529 --> 00:21:48,410 连续的阳线 512 00:21:48,410 --> 00:21:49,960 这是一次突破 513 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,680 突破更强了 514 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,119 不仅仅是因为更高的价格 515 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,359 也因为突破持续了更长的时间 516 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,640 连续三根阳线 517 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,440 这是更强的突破 518 00:22:07,299 --> 00:22:09,460 下跌可能不是大反转 519 00:22:09,460 --> 00:22:11,720 但这根阴线的体积足够大 520 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,349 所以这是大涨大跌 521 00:22:14,750 --> 00:22:15,869 震荡区间的特征 522 00:22:15,869 --> 00:22:17,230 可能需要横盘一段时间 523 00:22:18,230 --> 00:22:21,440 但目前仍然是上涨趋势 524 00:22:21,759 --> 00:22:23,680 不管突破多么强 525 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,720 最终都会尝试反转 526 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,839 但大多数反转尝试会失败 527 00:22:33,619 --> 00:22:35,200 我今天已经说了几次 528 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,200 每一个反转都是一次突破 529 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,940 尽管很多时候它看起来不像是一次突破 530 00:22:41,220 --> 00:22:43,039 他看起来只是一个反转 531 00:22:43,039 --> 00:22:46,329 你说他是反转还是突破都可以 532 00:22:46,609 --> 00:22:50,369 这根大阴线是一次突破 533 00:22:53,420 --> 00:22:54,819 它跌破了什么 534 00:22:54,819 --> 00:22:57,579 它跌破了这个三根阳线组成的上涨通道 535 00:22:57,579 --> 00:22:59,259 它跌破了这根K线的低点 536 00:22:59,259 --> 00:23:00,299 到底跌破了什么 537 00:23:00,299 --> 00:23:00,819 不重要 538 00:23:00,819 --> 00:23:03,200 任何时候我看到一个大的趋势K线 539 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,980 我想到突破 540 00:23:05,900 --> 00:23:07,779 再次强调用什么词语 541 00:23:07,779 --> 00:23:09,779 取决于左边发生了什么 542 00:23:09,779 --> 00:23:11,140 左边在上涨 543 00:23:11,140 --> 00:23:12,859 然后突然有一根大阴线 544 00:23:12,859 --> 00:23:15,089 所以我会称之为反转 545 00:23:15,390 --> 00:23:17,869 他也是一次突破 546 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,509 多头突破 547 00:23:23,509 --> 00:23:25,410 但这根大阴线告诉我们 548 00:23:25,410 --> 00:23:26,890 多头突破失败了 549 00:23:26,890 --> 00:23:29,630 目前还很难说后续到底是反转 550 00:23:29,630 --> 00:23:32,670 呈下降趋势还是震荡区间 551 00:23:32,670 --> 00:23:34,509 又或者是上涨中的一次回调 552 00:23:34,509 --> 00:23:37,029 形成牛期后恢复上涨趋势 553 00:23:37,309 --> 00:23:39,069 但这是空头反转 554 00:23:39,069 --> 00:23:40,190 这是失败的 555 00:23:40,190 --> 00:23:42,109 多头突破 556 00:23:46,859 --> 00:23:50,329 我在整个课程中多次强调这一点 557 00:23:50,569 --> 00:23:52,029 突破是很常见的 558 00:23:52,029 --> 00:23:53,309 每一个趋势K线 559 00:23:53,309 --> 00:23:56,650 每一个趋势K线系列都是一次突破 560 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,138 有很多多头突破 561 00:24:00,138 --> 00:24:03,358 这是一个由许多小突破组成的大突破 562 00:24:03,358 --> 00:24:04,298 空头突破 563 00:24:04,298 --> 00:24:05,999 这也是空头突破 564 00:24:05,999 --> 00:24:07,378 一些只有两根K线 565 00:24:07,378 --> 00:24:09,309 一些由更多K线组成 566 00:24:09,309 --> 00:24:10,589 这里有三根K线 567 00:24:10,589 --> 00:24:13,269 我会把这个小十字星看作是突破的一部分吗 568 00:24:13,269 --> 00:24:14,609 通常来说不会 569 00:24:14,609 --> 00:24:15,369 在我看来 570 00:24:15,369 --> 00:24:17,470 那是一个暂停K线之后才加速下跌 571 00:24:17,470 --> 00:24:19,130 所以后面三根大阴线是突破 572 00:24:20,369 --> 00:24:22,210 市场具有惯性 573 00:24:22,210 --> 00:24:24,490 这就是我的80%法则 574 00:24:24,490 --> 00:24:27,809 我说的惯性是指市场倾向于继续做 575 00:24:27,809 --> 00:24:29,789 他一直在做的事情 576 00:24:29,789 --> 00:24:31,630 每当我看到这样的突破 577 00:24:31,630 --> 00:24:33,210 我会看向左边啊 578 00:24:33,210 --> 00:24:34,819 这是震荡区间 579 00:24:34,819 --> 00:24:37,900 很可能突破会失败或者最终会失败 580 00:24:37,900 --> 00:24:40,339 如果我看到一个相当强劲的上涨 581 00:24:40,339 --> 00:24:43,220 比如这里的大阳线突破 582 00:24:43,490 --> 00:24:45,890 大概率后续还会有买盘 583 00:24:45,890 --> 00:24:49,269 因为左边的K线连续七根阳线 584 00:24:49,269 --> 00:24:52,089 每根K线的上影线 585 00:24:53,259 --> 00:24:56,359 或下影线也是一次突破柱 586 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,819 至少是突破反转的尝试 587 00:25:00,759 --> 00:25:04,359 这个下影线某个时刻它看上去是一根大阴线 588 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:05,680 如果收盘在这里的话 589 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,319 但当K线真正收盘时 590 00:25:07,319 --> 00:25:09,400 它变成了一根阳线 591 00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:12,119 市场曾经跌破了这个低点 592 00:25:12,519 --> 00:25:14,920 下降趋势小反弹 593 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,579 熊奇尝试跌破熊旗 594 00:25:17,579 --> 00:25:19,579 但失败了 595 00:25:19,779 --> 00:25:21,799 到这里变成了第二雄起 596 00:25:21,799 --> 00:25:23,940 这些K线都有下影线 597 00:25:23,940 --> 00:25:27,549 这些都代表着空投突破失败了 598 00:25:27,670 --> 00:25:29,470 K线顶部的上影线 599 00:25:29,470 --> 00:25:30,829 失败的多头突破 600 00:25:30,829 --> 00:25:33,450 这是一个扭起试图突破 601 00:25:33,450 --> 00:25:34,089 但失败了 602 00:25:34,089 --> 00:25:35,329 试图突破又失败了 603 00:25:36,569 --> 00:25:40,289 所以每个引线都是一次失败的突破尝试 604 00:25:43,099 --> 00:25:44,960 最后我们来讲震荡区间中的突破 605 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,279 就像之前所说 606 00:25:46,279 --> 00:25:47,579 市场具有惯性 607 00:25:47,579 --> 00:25:49,279 如果市场一直在横盘 608 00:25:49,279 --> 00:25:52,559 很可能它会继续横盘突破 609 00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:54,920 把它变成趋势的尝试 610 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,279 80%的概率会失败 611 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,759 这是欧元兑日元的五分 612 00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:05,888 中途上下来回反转 613 00:26:05,888 --> 00:26:09,460 连续两根大阴线很不错 614 00:26:09,619 --> 00:26:10,839 但是在区间的底部 615 00:26:10,839 --> 00:26:12,900 在前期的低点市场反转向上 616 00:26:13,900 --> 00:26:15,799 这里多头突破创新高 617 00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:19,960 但是没有好的跟随大阳线 618 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,400 把追涨的人套住了 619 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:23,599 多头抱有希望 620 00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:24,960 比如当你看到这样一根K线 621 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,388 你会说好 622 00:26:26,388 --> 00:26:28,388 显然震荡区间要结束了 623 00:26:28,388 --> 00:26:30,028 上涨趋势要开始了 624 00:26:30,028 --> 00:26:32,210 不是这样的 625 00:26:32,529 --> 00:26:34,910 大多数突破震荡区间的尝试会失败 626 00:26:34,910 --> 00:26:38,480 即使是像这样或那样看上去非常强劲的突破 627 00:26:38,599 --> 00:26:39,220 新手 628 00:26:39,220 --> 00:26:41,079 他们往往在这样的大阳线收盘时买入 629 00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:43,079 追涨压住突破会成功 630 00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:45,279 但他们忘记了我的80%法则 631 00:26:45,279 --> 00:26:47,440 大多数突破会失败 632 00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:50,640 聪明的空投 633 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,619 他们的做法是 634 00:26:51,619 --> 00:26:53,400 当他们看到强劲的大阳线 635 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,099 出现在区间的顶部附近 636 00:26:55,099 --> 00:26:57,138 他们会找机会做空 637 00:26:57,138 --> 00:26:58,499 他们可以在向下反转时 638 00:26:58,499 --> 00:26:59,719 用突破卖单入场做空 639 00:26:59,719 --> 00:27:02,559 比如在那根K线下方或是这根K线下方卖出 640 00:27:02,559 --> 00:27:05,960 很多人也会选择在大阳线的收盘市价卖出做空 641 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,339 在大阳线收盘的瞬间 642 00:27:07,339 --> 00:27:09,779 他们点击市价卖出订单 643 00:27:09,779 --> 00:27:12,140 会在下一根K线的开盘成交 644 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:14,799 在区间顶部 645 00:27:14,799 --> 00:27:16,859 所有的大阳线都是抢购高潮 646 00:27:16,859 --> 00:27:19,079 而底部的大阴线都是抛售高潮 647 00:27:19,079 --> 00:27:21,720 并且80%的概率这些突破会失败 648 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:22,900 然后反转 649 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,000 反转就是反方向的趋势 650 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,200 K线反转也是突破 651 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,160 刚才说空头会在区间顶部 652 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,849 大阳线收盘时反向做空 653 00:27:35,849 --> 00:27:39,890 也有人会等开始反转向下了再入场做空 654 00:27:39,890 --> 00:27:43,970 这比直接卖大阳线收盘的胜率更高一些 655 00:27:46,759 --> 00:27:49,359 区间底部两根非常强的大阴线 656 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:50,559 但跟随很糟糕 657 00:27:50,559 --> 00:27:52,259 空投再次尝试突破 658 00:27:52,259 --> 00:27:54,869 又一次全都失败了 659 00:27:55,069 --> 00:27:56,390 非常强的大阴线 660 00:27:56,390 --> 00:27:58,609 收盘远低于这个下影线的最低点 661 00:27:58,609 --> 00:28:01,109 但它仍在震荡区间内 662 00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:06,630 这样的K线把追空的空头套住了 663 00:28:06,630 --> 00:28:09,089 人的天性会使得交易者充满希望 664 00:28:09,089 --> 00:28:10,369 他们在想哇 665 00:28:10,369 --> 00:28:11,250 这么厉害 666 00:28:11,250 --> 00:28:12,170 肯定要突破 667 00:28:12,170 --> 00:28:13,750 变成下降趋势了 668 00:28:13,750 --> 00:28:16,670 但是看前面这里超级强势的大阳线 669 00:28:16,670 --> 00:28:18,309 现在跌破了它的低点 670 00:28:18,309 --> 00:28:20,579 这肯定是一个测量型缺口 671 00:28:20,579 --> 00:28:23,720 会达到向下的mm目标位吗 672 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,599 问题是它还没有跌破震荡区间的低点 673 00:28:26,599 --> 00:28:28,400 而且下一根K线是阳线 674 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:29,920 糟糕的跟随 675 00:28:30,380 --> 00:28:33,579 很可能这个空头突破不会跌的很远 676 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,720 多头知道这一点 677 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,339 所以每当他们看到区间底部出现了大阴线 678 00:28:39,339 --> 00:28:43,880 他们会直接买他的收盘压住80%法则 679 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,660 空头突破会失败 680 00:28:49,759 --> 00:28:52,039 虽然看上去像是大阴线 681 00:28:52,039 --> 00:28:53,079 要突破了 682 00:28:53,079 --> 00:28:55,000 要变成下降趋势了 683 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,660 多头压住80%的概率 684 00:28:57,660 --> 00:29:00,740 这些突破会失败啊 685 00:29:01,839 --> 00:29:05,329 一些多头更愿意在反转向上时再买入 686 00:29:05,329 --> 00:29:08,349 他们等看到反转信号K之后再入场 687 00:29:08,349 --> 00:29:13,809 比如在这里这里这里和这里的阳线上方买入 688 00:29:18,259 --> 00:29:19,119 总结一下 689 00:29:19,119 --> 00:29:21,710 我在视频开头讲了我对突破的定义 690 00:29:21,710 --> 00:29:24,650 然后讲了我的80%法则 691 00:29:24,650 --> 00:29:28,470 八零百分号的突破尝试会失败 692 00:29:30,319 --> 00:29:31,559 我也讲了 693 00:29:31,559 --> 00:29:34,500 反转其实就是反方向的突破 694 00:29:34,500 --> 00:29:38,160 我通常不会用反向突破这个词 695 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,220 我就说他是反转 696 00:29:42,220 --> 00:29:43,839 反转也是突破的一种 697 00:29:43,839 --> 00:29:47,039 尽管有时候在这个时间级别下不明显 698 00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:50,099 最后因为80%法则 699 00:29:50,099 --> 00:29:53,220 如果市场正处于震荡区间之中 700 00:29:53,220 --> 00:29:56,319 不管顶部的阳线有多强 701 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,720 也不管底部的阴线有多强 702 00:29:59,839 --> 00:30:02,000 80%的概率突破会失败 703 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:03,339 所以交易者高抛低吸 704 00:30:03,339 --> 00:30:05,420 并且因为他们预计震荡会继续 705 00:30:05,420 --> 00:30:07,799 所以他们做包头皮交易 706 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,160 赚了就走 707 00:30:13,500 --> 00:30:14,839 我是二布鲁克斯 708 00:30:14,839 --> 00:30:18,640 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程突破的第一节课 709 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,539 到这里就讲完了
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