【NaNa说美股】20260616谁被拍在沙滩上了？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是6月16号

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周二美股四大股指涨跌不一

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由于科技巨头集体回落

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标普与纳指收跌

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大型股和半导体股票的疲软

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抵消了中东局势发展带来的整体风险

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情绪改善

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道指呢在周期股推动之下收涨

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市场表现分化

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消费和金融股逆势走强

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罗素2000指数也遭遇了明显的抛售压力

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尽管10年期美债收益率今天下滑

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市场觉得这个还不够

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要使日元贬值趋势消退

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交易员们认为

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以支撑日元并且遏制通胀

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日元兑美元汇率呢回吐了部分涨幅

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美国称

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伊朗可以在协议签署后

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就立即恢复石油与燃料出口

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增加能源供应

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卡塔尔能源公司预计

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霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后

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一个月内就可以恢复一半的液化天然气产量

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两个月内可以达到产能的80%

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这个消息进一步加剧了价格的下行压力

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还有个原因呢

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就是中国今天公布的零售销售数据不及预期

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同比下降0.6%

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为疫情后首次转负

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预期为持平

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这个中国的消费持续疲软

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投资呢进一步萎缩

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世界第二大经济体疲软哈

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这意味着原有未来需求疲软

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供应增加

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那油价自然就跌得更狠了

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标普500指数在昨天跳空缺口上方震荡

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市场重要参与者在美联储会议之前保持观望

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美银最新公布的全球基金经理调查报告指出

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尽管投资者整体依然看涨

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但是看涨的狂热程度呢较5月份有所降温

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受访基金经理

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将全球股票的净超配比例

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削减了12个百分点到38%

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并且将科技板块的净超配比例

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下调至26%

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与此同时

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投资者的平均现金水平

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从5月份的3.9%微升到4.1%

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美银策略师MICHAELHARNE在报告中指出

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这表明随着夏季就是交易淡季临近

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交易员们正在主动将部分筹码撤下桌面

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锁定浮盈

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在风险偏好方面

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市场对尾部风险的认知呢也发生了显著变化

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34%的基金经理

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将第二波通胀视为市场的最大尾部风险

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而将AI泡沫视为最大风险的受访者比例

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大幅上升了28%

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这要远高于两个月前的5%

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相比之下

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随着美伊协议落地

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对地缘政治冲突的担忧比例

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从两个月前的44%骤降至12%

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高盛最新的CCTA模型显示

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短期内

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标普500的CTA多头买盘动能已经基本耗尽

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技术性调仓与平仓需求

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开始对市场构成轻微的压制

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未来一周无论市场怎么走

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ct a大概率都是净卖出状态

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横盘的话呢

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CCTA预计卖出25.4亿美元上涨

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预计卖出32.3亿美元下跌

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预计卖出50亿美元

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未来一个月的走势

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将会因为市场方向而产生极端的分化

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如果这个大盘在未来一个月企稳或者上涨

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ct带来的买盘回补规模呢非常的有限

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横盘买入14.7亿美元嗯

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上涨的话买入45.4亿美元来助推牛市

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可一旦大盘破位下跌哈

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将会触发CCTA汹涌的去化止损和反手做空释放

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接近467亿美元的巨量抛压

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极易引发这个多头踩踏

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这是一个典型的非对称风险

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决定CCTA是否开启暴风雨式抛出的触发开关呢

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分别为短期关键位7322点

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这个位置最敏感

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一旦跌破的话

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短期内就会开始减仓

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中期关键位7038点

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长期关键位六千六百十八点呃

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至于这个中期或长期的触发点

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咱们暂时不用太在意哈

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重点还是这个短期触发点7322

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其实嗯看这个大盘也就是这条50日均线啦

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虽然目前这条均线处于7285点附近

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但是由于拐头还在向上哈

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再过几天可能就要来到7320点附近了

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目前市场主流预期呢就是未来一两周内

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受制于高速模型中提及到的CCTA

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确定性卖出压力

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标普500可能维持在7400到

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7550点区间震荡

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很难形成向上突破

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但美联储会议就明天握手入市示范

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任何超不出色产预期的鹰派

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或者而超预期的鸽派信号

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都有可能瞬间扭转市场当下共识哈

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道指今天呢再创历史新高

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核心推动力来自于传统价值与周期板块

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摩根大通

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卡特皮勒等银行与工业龙头

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以及金融消费类传统行业股票表现亮眼

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而微软

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英伟达CRM那些科技巨头普遍承压

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高盛交易柜台指出

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中东和平曙光的出现

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直接导致国际油价暴跌

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并且重创了通胀预期

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推动资金开始关注其他领域

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不再局限于AI单一叙事了

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随着战争结束呢

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市场将会略过这个近期的通胀数据

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逐步剔除加息预期

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重新转向坚定的降息

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压住小盘股与周期股

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将会迎头赶上AI股

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周期股今天是涨了哈

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但是小盘股这个今天还是嗯表现稍微疲软的

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封闭了昨天的跳空缺口

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芯片股全面下跌

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中东停战带来的降息交易

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正在对极度拥挤的AI赛道进行一次健康的抽血

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现在市场上演的不是全面牛市

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而是极端的流动性

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内卷和蓄势转移

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随着夏季成交量萎缩

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流动性变差

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科技股呢可能会再次面临一波短期调整风险

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资金可能又要轮动到像sofire affirm

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那些金融工业

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房地产板块

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美股有史以来最大的IPO奇迹仍在延续

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SPACEX今天盘中一度涨超16%

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最终收涨4.8%十

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现上市以来的连续三天暴风式拉升

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自挂牌以来

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股价累计涨幅已经达到50%了

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总市值飙升到惊人的2.66万亿美元

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超越了特斯拉和亚马逊

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成为全球市值第五大的超级巨头哈

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就仅次于英伟达

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谷歌

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微软和苹果

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金融数据机构万达卫search统计显示

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SPACEX上市头两天

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散户净买入规模

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就这两天的功夫

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相当于上周整个美股市场的散户净买入总和

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由于space x将很快被纳入纳斯达克100指数

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富士罗素

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还有m s sci

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也分别将在6月26号和6月29号

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将其纳入全球基准指数

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所以现在散户拼命买

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都是想要薅那个指数基金的薅羊毛啦

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呃space x的逆天表现呢

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正在加速华尔街科技主线叙事的迭代

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有社交媒体和研究机构推崇的mango

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这个新组合正式登上历史舞台哈

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嗯M指的就是meta嗯

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A呢是指ENTROPK

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N指英伟达

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这个G指的谷歌O是OpenAI以及S呢就是space x了

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我总觉得这个meta在这个里面有一点格格不入哈

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不知道是不是强行给自己脸上贴金

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强调的呢是移动互联网时代的成熟科技现金流

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而这个新组合MONGOS则更强调AI基础模型

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AI算力基础设施

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还有太空通信

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数据网络

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只有太空稀缺

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这个标的

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投资者正在用新的这个缩写来表达

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新的全球核心科技资产的定价框架

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space x期权合约呢今天就开始可以交易了

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首日投机情绪陷入癫狂

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根据机构数据显示

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期权交易开始后的前10分钟哈

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就有11.5万份期权合约

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一手看涨与看跌

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期权的成交比例呢高达1.7比一

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股价波动剧烈

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因此以期权的隐含波动率也非常的高

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成本昂贵

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我觉得其实现在买期权那很不合算

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真的要当赌狗的话

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还不如去买那个与股票挂钩的二倍杠杆ETF了

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这种衍生品干嘛

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挤压带来的非理性款标

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让股价加速上行哈

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今天日内短线触底后的回调呢也是相当的猛烈

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不管是做多还是做空啦

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就一定要为剧烈波动做好准备

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这个日内回落其实很容易就能够被拉起来

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因为被动买盘的锁仓效应

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会让它的股价在短期内维持非理性高位

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甚至由于期权干嘛挤压

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还可以继续逼空

215
00:09:46,990 --> 00:09:50,109
第一波真正的回调嗯

216
00:09:50,109 --> 00:09:53,379
估计要等这个股票被纳入指数之后

217
00:09:53,379 --> 00:09:56,100
第二波呢那就要等到六个月后

218
00:09:56,100 --> 00:09:58,960
就大量的限售股解禁流通

219
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,240
届时会带来大规模抛售潮

220
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,149
当下要是做空风险是非常大的哈

221
00:10:04,149 --> 00:10:07,870
随着space x的天量IPO被市场平稳消化

222
00:10:07,870 --> 00:10:11,190
洪荒指数VIX从高位骤降到16

223
00:10:11,190 --> 00:10:14,120
资金等大规模回流风险资产

224
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,740
这场史上最大IPO非但没有吸干市场流动性

225
00:10:17,740 --> 00:10:20,740
反而成为这个牛市行情催化剂

226
00:10:20,740 --> 00:10:22,190
美股全线走强

227
00:10:22,190 --> 00:10:24,269
半导体板块创出新高

228
00:10:24,269 --> 00:10:27,649
而VIX看跌期权的密集交易跟

229
00:10:27,649 --> 00:10:31,240
暗示着这个市场啊正在压注波动率

230
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,059
VIX还会继续下行

231
00:10:33,059 --> 00:10:37,029
未来12个月的保护性对冲正在大规模的平仓

232
00:10:37,029 --> 00:10:39,509
不过呢需要注意的是嗯

233
00:10:39,509 --> 00:10:42,309
尽管VX的交易指向

234
00:10:42,309 --> 00:10:45,450
更为看涨的这个股市前景哈

235
00:10:45,450 --> 00:10:48,720
嗯芯片股的期权流出呢

236
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,700
却仍显示出显著的对冲活动

237
00:10:51,700 --> 00:10:54,399
即便半导体板块再次创出历史新高

238
00:10:54,399 --> 00:10:56,700
我估计是因为这个半导体权重

239
00:10:56,700 --> 00:10:59,620
在当前大盘指数中占比实在是太高了

240
00:10:59,620 --> 00:11:02,370
所以呢就交易员们做一些对冲

241
00:11:02,370 --> 00:11:03,269
不知不觉

242
00:11:03,269 --> 00:11:04,710
小月亮LUN呢

243
00:11:04,710 --> 00:11:08,580
股价已经较此前46.8美元高位腰斩了

244
00:11:08,580 --> 00:11:13,340
这表明SPACEXIPO带来的严重资金抽血效应

245
00:11:13,340 --> 00:11:16,960
正在抹去这些投机题材股的流动性

246
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,759
看股价便宜不便宜

247
00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:21,399
不能只看它从高点跌下来多少

248
00:11:21,399 --> 00:11:24,759
还要看它原来是从什么位置涨上去的

249
00:11:24,759 --> 00:11:26,039
尽管跌了这么多

250
00:11:26,039 --> 00:11:28,679
今年年内还有44%的涨幅呢

251
00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,000
被SPACEX抽血只是一方面

252
00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:31,679
另一方面

253
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,200
股价其实也早就该跌了

254
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,159
NASA的合同

255
00:11:34,159 --> 00:11:38,029
被几个竞争对手们给分走了大半的蛋糕

256
00:11:38,029 --> 00:11:40,149
而且还增发了那么多股票

257
00:11:40,149 --> 00:11:41,309
稀释股权

258
00:11:41,309 --> 00:11:43,190
之前无脑拉那么多

259
00:11:43,190 --> 00:11:44,909
现在就是暴利挤泡沫

260
00:11:44,909 --> 00:11:48,190
当前这个股价其实也完全称不上便宜哈

261
00:11:48,190 --> 00:11:50,789
如果能够重新跌到16块的话

262
00:11:50,789 --> 00:11:52,169
还可以重新进场

263
00:11:52,169 --> 00:11:56,428
当前这个价位也许会有超跌反弹与暴力死猫跳

264
00:11:56,428 --> 00:11:58,309
但是时机一定要把握的好

265
00:11:58,309 --> 00:12:00,090
CPUE全球市场

266
00:12:00,090 --> 00:12:03,470
率先推出了space x股票期权合约

267
00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:04,590
正常来说是个利好

268
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:06,269
你看今天交易多么疯狂

269
00:12:06,269 --> 00:12:10,289
但是CPU1股价呢却因为其他的头条新闻大跌

270
00:12:10,289 --> 00:12:13,610
有消息称昆BEZ也要推出永续合约了

271
00:12:13,610 --> 00:12:14,960
另外呢还有报道称

272
00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,320
获利market也正在寻求cf tc批准

273
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,960
推出对股市走向的压铸产品

274
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:21,980
重燃了投资者

275
00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:26,480
对这些传统交易所面临严重竞争的担忧

276
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:30,980
看这个日K形态

277
00:12:30,980 --> 00:12:33,409
抛压还没有消化完毕

278
00:12:33,409 --> 00:12:35,769
可能下一步还会进一步走低

279
00:12:35,769 --> 00:12:37,789
周K也跌破了50周均线

280
00:12:37,789 --> 00:12:39,450
如果不能短时间内

281
00:12:39,450 --> 00:12:42,639
就两到三个交易日内收上去的话

282
00:12:42,639 --> 00:12:46,220
那就要下康120周均线230美元了

283
00:12:46,220 --> 00:12:49,940
这个股票在前两周市场动荡大跌的时候

284
00:12:49,940 --> 00:12:50,820
表现的更好

285
00:12:50,820 --> 00:12:54,429
因为当时交易员们疯狂买入V4期权对冲

286
00:12:54,429 --> 00:12:58,070
另外呢日内那些期权成交量也激增

287
00:12:58,070 --> 00:12:59,830
这几天市场平稳了

288
00:12:59,830 --> 00:13:03,078
机构们正在大规模解除对冲头寸

289
00:13:03,078 --> 00:13:05,438
那CPU1的股价就掉下去了

290
00:13:05,438 --> 00:13:09,120
所以也可以将这个股票作为嗯

291
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,399
对冲大盘下跌的一个标的哈

292
00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:16,750
市场喜欢在颠覆真正发生很久之前就定价

293
00:13:16,750 --> 00:13:19,169
当下杀估值也没有杀错了

294
00:13:19,169 --> 00:13:20,929
竞争的确是变多了

295
00:13:20,929 --> 00:13:23,480
不过呢呃基本面还是很稳健的

296
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,840
如果PEE能够杀到20出头的话

297
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,019
那也是个不错的进场时机

298
00:13:28,019 --> 00:13:28,940
毕业顺利

299
00:13:28,940 --> 00:13:29,970
新贵啊

300
00:13:29,970 --> 00:13:32,309
T股价今天收涨5%

301
00:13:32,309 --> 00:13:35,490
年内累计涨幅接近540%

302
00:13:35,490 --> 00:13:38,000
公司与AMD签署了一份协议

303
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:43,200
将会分阶段部署首批30兆瓦的AMDAI计算资源

304
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,279
从2026年底开始

305
00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:47,100
一直持续到2028年

306
00:13:47,100 --> 00:13:51,409
覆盖了这个REXT的全球数据中心

307
00:13:51,409 --> 00:13:54,889
这标志着医疗等受监管企业的大规模

308
00:13:54,889 --> 00:13:58,110
AI推理需求正式进入产业落地期

309
00:13:58,110 --> 00:14:02,309
存储概念股息部数据仍需两个交易日跳涨哈

310
00:14:02,309 --> 00:14:03,889
盘中再创新高

311
00:14:03,889 --> 00:14:07,570
摩根三类it硬件行业研究报告指出

312
00:14:07,570 --> 00:14:12,110
由于全球数据中心对大容量存储的无底洞需求

313
00:14:12,110 --> 00:14:15,350
机械硬盘的供需缺口巨大

314
00:14:15,350 --> 00:14:18,000
需求年增长40%到50%

315
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:19,139
而供应了

316
00:14:19,139 --> 00:14:21,799
只能够年增长30%到35%

317
00:14:21,799 --> 00:14:23,259
所以一直有这个缺口

318
00:14:23,259 --> 00:14:24,940
本轮硬盘嗯

319
00:14:24,940 --> 00:14:28,519
繁荣周期至少将会延长到2028年

320
00:14:28,519 --> 00:14:30,940
价格具有极强的复苏确定性

321
00:14:30,940 --> 00:14:34,509
哎呀反正这些投行们他们的那些报告哈

322
00:14:34,509 --> 00:14:38,629
永远都是这个上涨的时候不断的唱多

323
00:14:38,629 --> 00:14:41,899
然后下跌的时候呢又开始转空

324
00:14:41,899 --> 00:14:44,279
我觉得价格永远都是先行一步

325
00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:46,339
反映他们的那个报告的哈

326
00:14:46,339 --> 00:14:49,058
行我们就今天简单说到这里

327
00:14:49,058 --> 00:14:51,438
那就等明天water的首秀了哈

328
00:14:51,438 --> 00:14:52,779
咱们明天见拜拜

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