【Financial Education】Tom Lee：标普短期目标7300点

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天啊，这些烟民

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女士们先生们

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今天我们视频里要讨论一些重大内容

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包括我最看好的股票

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不是我持仓最大的

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但我的最爱股票刚发布了财报

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我想谈谈这里的情况

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我们将讨论这只股票

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我们要聊的是

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这只股票要涨到七十美元了吗

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每股加美元

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我们是否要涨到五十美元每股

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所有这些利好消息

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帕兰蒂尔科技

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我的另一项投资

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我已经大部分获利了结

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但它仍是我的重要持仓

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可能价值数十万美元

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如果汇总所有投资组合

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他们今天陷入了不少麻烦

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关于亚历克斯的事

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汽车喷射技术的应用

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关于税务问题

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天啊

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好的

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现在我们来聊帕兰蒂尔的情况

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好的，我将分享我的观点

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这对股票是否有影响

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我想回应这个三分钟片段

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汤姆·李在

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今日CNBC节目

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分享了他对市场走势的看法

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包括大量波动性

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嗯

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你知道的

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关于这些我的看法

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然后我们来看这个

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迈克·威尔逊过去是大空头

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但现在可能不是了

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迈克·威尔逊称AI周期才刚开始

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所以

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期待回应这个三分钟片段

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视频里有很多内容

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今天在这里

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感谢大家观看

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只有一件事

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只有一件事需要你们

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请轻点点赞按钮

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我非常感激

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另外，如果你想确保订阅频道

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给所有优质内容开启通知

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好的

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明白了

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所以蛋糕

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我们直接从蛋糕开始讲起

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这里发生了什么

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嗯

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听着，这是我的观点

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在我看来，蛋糕整体上这个季度表现不佳

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好的

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我在评分上给了他们C-

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收入从920万增至961万，这是好的

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食品饮料成本占收入比例下降，非常不错

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人力成本占收入比例也下降，同样优秀

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其他运营成本和费用占收入比例也降低

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这些都是积极因素，正是我们希望看到的

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然而

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管理费用却很高

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占收入比例达7%

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增加了约1000万美元

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同比增加约950万美元

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没错

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折旧和摊销费用略有上升

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但随后出现这个

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呃

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这里有个奇怪的条目

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资产减值或租赁终止费用

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昂贵的收购相关或有支出

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呃

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考虑补偿费用

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摊销费用

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呃

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是的

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这一项增长了2.3%

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而这一项增长了1%

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或者抱歉

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这一项增长至2.3%的收入比例

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从1.7%上升

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而这一项大幅增加

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达到1.2%的收入比例

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去年这个季度实际上是有利的

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预开业成本同比大幅增加

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增加了近200万美元

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总支出占比飙升至96.5%

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但这些都是很多异常

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类似一次性支出项目

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需注意这些情况

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其中部分与这个有关

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比如礼品卡问题

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我们稍后会在这里讨论

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营业收入从5.1%降至3.5%

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摊薄每股收益60美分，同比去年同季83美分

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是的

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但需要记住的是这里有很多异常事项

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好的

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资产减值及租赁终止费用

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这不是通常会重复发生的项目

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好的

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嗯

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你知道的

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尤其是像这样的大数字

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他们因礼品卡调整损失了近940万美元

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同时还有税务调整影响

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如果按非调整基准计算

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净利润应为4

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800万美元

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仍同比去年同季5

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100万美元

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仍然下滑

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但情况没看起来那么糟

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所以实际上

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这绝对不是蛋糕公司最强劲的季度

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说实话，很多人可能预期如此

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关于蛋糕公司并非最强劲季度

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这也是蛋糕股价在去年第四季度初下跌的原因

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去年第四季度初

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政府停摆的影响

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可能损害销售及其他因素

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没错

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这些都是需要留意的要点

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现在

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他们向投资者展示的核心内容

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是他们对投资者的汇报

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他们重点介绍了北意大利品牌

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这是一个非常令人兴奋的概念

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该公司正在迅猛扩张

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总体而言

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但该品牌本季度整体表现不佳

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我认为

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呃

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最新季度同比销售数据

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你知道的

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与去年同期相比本季度下降4%

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北意大利品牌本季度表现不佳

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需注意

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仍是高盈利且整体表现良好的概念

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但本季度同店销售未达预期

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至于花童品牌

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他们未单独披露具体数据

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但随着时间推移，这仍然是企业巨大的增长潜力

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大约百分之五十的业务是

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呃

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基本上是外带业务

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或者像

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你知道的

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人们带回家吃或外卖这类业务

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据我了解他们目前仍独家合作DoorDash

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所以如果他们开放其他平台

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那里还有更多机会

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没错

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未来七百个国内门店的潜力

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截至目前

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他们仅有四个三个门店

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这里存在大量扩张机会

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就Fox餐厅概念而言

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他们有很多新概念正在推进

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本质上

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呃

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目前有五个五个门店

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关于这一业务线的营收情况

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去年收入三亿五千五百万美元

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覆盖十一个州没错

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这明显展示了芝士蛋糕工厂

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这是他们的主要营收来源

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北意大利面粉渠道

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正在全美扩展的业务

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以及Culinary Dropout Blanco

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亨利品牌

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这些正在不同市场测试中

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这令人失望

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我个人认为

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他们只计划开设二十六个新店

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在2026年

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我不满意这个计划

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他们在2025年开了二十五个门店

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你知道的

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我觉得他们开设的新概念太少

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远远不够

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尤其是关于Flower Child品牌

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他们需要加快扩张

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每年开设二十六家Flower Child门店

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比如

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去年仅新开六家Flower Child门店

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好吧

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你认为Flower Child会达到七百家门店

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没错

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我们现在有四十三家

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算算这个数字

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到何时才能开够Flower Child门店

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你知道吗

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我不知道

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艾被接管了

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兄弟别闹

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我们必须和花童一起行动

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我们一年不能开六家概念店

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这太荒谬了

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花童每年需要稳定开设二十到三十家概念店

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像钟表一样精准

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六家概念店远远不够

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兄弟不

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这简直荒谬

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他们发展速度太慢了

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不管怎样

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当你需要推出概念产品时

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你需要像塔可贝尔一样

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不像

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嗯

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我们每年只能开六家塔可贝尔？不不

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他们他们在

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这很明显

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他们那里有个爆款概念

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并且迅速扩张没错

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我们这里也有爆款

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以花童为例

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我们必须超过六家

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你知道的

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每年新增门店这样太荒谬

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兄弟这绝对是我不满意的领域

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蛋糕大概像

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我们必须加快步伐

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我们有爆款了

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我们有爆款啊

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出发吧

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赶紧推广出去

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兄弟这就是我目前的看法

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就财年而言

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RC销售额基本持平

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呃

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蛋糕增长非常微弱

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而北提利亏损2%

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可以说北提利这一年表现令人失望

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总希望旗下餐厅概念持续增长

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尤其是北提利

244
00:07:32,959 --> 00:07:33,199
对吧

245
00:07:33,199 --> 00:07:33,519
你知道的

246
00:07:33,519 --> 00:07:34,379
这确实令人失望

247
00:07:34,379 --> 00:07:34,879
我不得不说

248
00:07:34,879 --> 00:07:35,279
这一年

249
00:07:35,279 --> 00:07:35,800
呃

250
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:36,740
对于北塔拉

251
00:07:36,740 --> 00:07:38,689
财政年度进展顺利

252
00:07:38,689 --> 00:07:39,769
2025年亮点

253
00:07:39,769 --> 00:07:40,350
呃

254
00:07:40,350 --> 00:07:41,908
营收同比增长5%

255
00:07:41,908 --> 00:07:42,809
同比来看

256
00:07:42,809 --> 00:07:44,548
净利润下降5%

257
00:07:44,548 --> 00:07:45,149
但请注意

258
00:07:45,149 --> 00:07:46,468
那里有很多异常情况

259
00:07:46,468 --> 00:07:47,249
在右侧

260
00:07:47,249 --> 00:07:49,588
调整后EBITDA达到3.54亿美元

261
00:07:49,588 --> 00:07:52,149
相比去年增长8%

262
00:07:52,149 --> 00:07:53,250
这是一个非常好的数字

263
00:07:53,250 --> 00:07:55,009
调整后EBITDA在此处

264
00:07:55,009 --> 00:07:58,709
记住像蛋糕公司经常大幅计提折旧和摊销

265
00:07:58,709 --> 00:07:59,500
没错

266
00:07:59,500 --> 00:07:59,860
呃

267
00:07:59,860 --> 00:08:01,829
摊薄EPS下降4%

268
00:08:01,829 --> 00:08:02,529
呃

269
00:08:02,529 --> 00:08:04,389
相比上一年

270
00:08:04,389 --> 00:08:09,470
但调整后摊薄EPS实际同比上涨10%

271
00:08:09,470 --> 00:08:12,170
正如我所说他们有很多异常因素

272
00:08:12,170 --> 00:08:14,410
这些因素在整体上影响了盈利能力

273
00:08:14,410 --> 00:08:16,230
但在非调整基础上剔除这些因素

274
00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:17,769
整体表现其实更好

275
00:08:17,769 --> 00:08:18,209
然后

276
00:08:18,209 --> 00:08:18,709
呃

277
00:08:18,709 --> 00:08:19,089
你知道的

278
00:08:19,089 --> 00:08:21,209
在整体基础上资本配置

279
00:08:21,209 --> 00:08:21,769
一百四十

280
00:08:21,769 --> 00:08:23,228
六百万美元资本支出

281
00:08:23,228 --> 00:08:23,649
五十

282
00:08:23,649 --> 00:08:24,928
两百万美元分红

283
00:08:24,928 --> 00:08:26,709
他们还提高了股息

284
00:08:26,709 --> 00:08:30,050
每季度增加0.03美元/股

285
00:08:30,050 --> 00:08:32,450
这我当然乐于接受

286
00:08:33,269 --> 00:08:35,200
四百万美元回购

287
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,100
至于2026年

288
00:08:37,100 --> 00:08:40,019
合并销售额约3.9亿

289
00:08:40,019 --> 00:08:40,620
九亿美元

290
00:08:40,620 --> 00:08:42,360
我认为更接近40亿美元

291
00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:43,869
个人观点

292
00:08:43,869 --> 00:08:44,269
呃

293
00:08:44,269 --> 00:08:45,308
净利润率

294
00:08:45,308 --> 00:08:45,589
他们

295
00:08:45,589 --> 00:08:48,369
他们目标达到5%的

296
00:08:48,369 --> 00:08:51,340
基于该营收的净利润率

297
00:08:51,340 --> 00:08:53,159
请记住这一点

298
00:08:53,159 --> 00:08:54,500
新门店增长

299
00:08:54,500 --> 00:08:55,519
看看这个人

300
00:08:55,519 --> 00:08:58,169
这简直是我最失望的事情

301
00:08:58,169 --> 00:08:59,929
六个芝士蛋糕工厂

302
00:08:59,929 --> 00:09:01,470
只有六到七个北方

303
00:09:01,470 --> 00:09:03,049
唉只有六到七朵花

304
00:09:03,049 --> 00:09:03,490
我们的孩子

305
00:09:03,490 --> 00:09:03,809
我就像

306
00:09:03,809 --> 00:09:05,059
我们在这里做什么

307
00:09:05,059 --> 00:09:06,360
我们在做什么啊

308
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:07,379
我们必须抓住概念

309
00:09:07,379 --> 00:09:09,580
我们必须加快对花童的推进

310
00:09:09,580 --> 00:09:10,460
依我之见

311
00:09:10,460 --> 00:09:12,419
必须加快速度

312
00:09:13,500 --> 00:09:16,019
所以啊

313
00:09:16,649 --> 00:09:17,649
必须加快速度

314
00:09:17,649 --> 00:09:20,629
这家伙得有人联系管理层

315
00:09:20,629 --> 00:09:21,919
然后说兄弟们

316
00:09:21,919 --> 00:09:23,200
我们必须获得更多

317
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,480
我们必须加快对花童的行动

318
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,080
这简直不可接受

319
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,279
六到七个单位

320
00:09:29,279 --> 00:09:30,539
我们有了一次成功

321
00:09:30,539 --> 00:09:31,340
我们在做什么

322
00:09:32,379 --> 00:09:35,879
我们必须比这更快行动 必须比这更快

323
00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:40,230
所以我希望有人能联系管理层并说

324
00:09:40,629 --> 00:09:42,090
我们需要部署什么

325
00:09:42,090 --> 00:09:45,309
这样我们才能开始以二十到三十个概念扩展花童

326
00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:48,019
每年每年每年都这样

327
00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:51,340
甚至这个数字还不算夸张

328
00:09:51,340 --> 00:09:52,500
这不像不像

329
00:09:52,500 --> 00:09:53,200
天啊

330
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:54,500
二十到三十个概念

331
00:09:54,500 --> 00:09:55,860
这数字太高了

332
00:09:55,860 --> 00:09:57,379
这不算太疯狂

333
00:09:57,379 --> 00:09:57,940
你知道的

334
00:09:57,940 --> 00:10:00,710
上次查到的Chipotle

335
00:10:00,710 --> 00:10:01,730
这已经有点久了

336
00:10:01,730 --> 00:10:02,669
但上次查到时

337
00:10:02,669 --> 00:10:05,889
Chipotle每年扩展三百个概念

338
00:10:05,889 --> 00:10:08,519
三百个门店对吧

339
00:10:08,519 --> 00:10:10,039
要达到二十到三十个

340
00:10:10,039 --> 00:10:11,379
并不像什么

341
00:10:11,379 --> 00:10:11,929
哇

342
00:10:11,929 --> 00:10:12,149
哦

343
00:10:12,149 --> 00:10:13,090
这太疯狂了

344
00:10:13,090 --> 00:10:14,409
我们能能

345
00:10:14,409 --> 00:10:18,710
你相信二十个概念三十个新门店吗

346
00:10:18,710 --> 00:10:19,909
我们必须立即行动

347
00:10:19,909 --> 00:10:22,889
这就是我对这里的两点看法

348
00:10:22,889 --> 00:10:27,559
总体而言他们在讨论年度增长前景

349
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:28,799
他们在讨论一到二个百分点

350
00:10:28,799 --> 00:10:30,059
综合商店销售额增长

351
00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:32,460
他们提到营收增长七到八个百分点

352
00:10:32,460 --> 00:10:33,000
呃

353
00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:34,009
收入增长

354
00:10:34,110 --> 00:10:37,350
所以他们的年度平均增长目标是这样设定的

355
00:10:37,350 --> 00:10:38,889
我认为这非常有可能实现

356
00:10:38,889 --> 00:10:41,129
整体来看这些数据非常亮眼

357
00:10:41,129 --> 00:10:41,629
好的

358
00:10:41,629 --> 00:10:43,479
所以嗯

359
00:10:43,479 --> 00:10:44,499
让我看看怎么出去

360
00:10:44,499 --> 00:10:45,178
我怎么才能脱身

361
00:10:45,178 --> 00:10:47,298
现在我被困在这玩意儿里了

362
00:10:47,298 --> 00:10:49,799
怎么出去啊我们走

363
00:10:49,799 --> 00:10:50,460
我出来了

364
00:10:50,460 --> 00:10:51,059
好的

365
00:10:51,059 --> 00:10:55,470
蛋糕业务短期内表现不错

366
00:10:55,950 --> 00:10:56,549
你知道的

367
00:10:56,549 --> 00:10:57,610
我不知道什么都有可能

368
00:10:57,610 --> 00:10:58,370
在这次讨论中

369
00:10:58,370 --> 00:10:59,490
长期来看

370
00:10:59,490 --> 00:11:01,950
公司基础非常扎实

371
00:11:02,429 --> 00:11:06,200
我只是有点失望地离开

372
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:06,899
感到有些失望

373
00:11:06,899 --> 00:11:08,620
这不是最强劲的季度

374
00:11:08,620 --> 00:11:13,970
我们新开的花童概念店进度太慢

375
00:11:14,210 --> 00:11:14,690
你知道的

376
00:11:14,690 --> 00:11:16,190
到年底我们会达到什么规模

377
00:11:16,190 --> 00:11:18,429
五十家花童门店

378
00:11:18,429 --> 00:11:20,029
五十家花童门店

379
00:11:20,029 --> 00:11:21,610
我们正在计划扩展到七百家

380
00:11:21,610 --> 00:11:22,470
我们必须得

381
00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:23,190
我们必须行动

382
00:11:23,190 --> 00:11:24,559
快点行动啊

383
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,240
希望我们能联系到管理层加快开店

384
00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,519
还要多开几家花童店啊兄弟们

385
00:11:30,519 --> 00:11:32,120
我们必须马上行动

386
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,850
现在有点混乱了

387
00:11:33,850 --> 00:11:34,370
顺便说一句

388
00:11:34,370 --> 00:11:36,730
是买入还是卖出蛋糕股票

389
00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:37,529
绝对不卖出

390
00:11:37,529 --> 00:11:38,009
如果有的话

391
00:11:38,009 --> 00:11:39,610
我还要多买

392
00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:42,539
让我这么说

393
00:11:42,539 --> 00:11:44,559
想知道蛋糕如何快速涨到一百

394
00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:47,740
管理层必须多开花童店

395
00:11:47,740 --> 00:11:49,059
如果他们所有计划

396
00:11:49,059 --> 00:11:53,250
你知道他们会开始每年开二十到三十家花童店

397
00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:54,590
这是我们下一阶段的目标

398
00:11:54,590 --> 00:11:55,090
你知道的

399
00:11:55,090 --> 00:11:58,389
需要一两年才能达到那个能够每年持续进行的阶段

400
00:11:58,389 --> 00:11:59,909
并且在高水平上完成

401
00:11:59,909 --> 00:12:01,629
观察一只股票突然暴涨

402
00:12:01,629 --> 00:12:03,149
你可以观察一只股票

403
00:12:03,149 --> 00:12:09,350
只需看它飙升到一百点就像这样

404
00:12:09,350 --> 00:12:11,149
不过暂且这样吧

405
00:12:11,149 --> 00:12:12,990
接下来是帕兰蒂泪

406
00:12:12,990 --> 00:12:16,539
所以卡桑德拉在这里

407
00:12:16,539 --> 00:12:16,980
好的

408
00:12:16,980 --> 00:12:17,860
亚历克斯·卡普

409
00:12:17,860 --> 00:12:20,480
这些年末期间发生了什么

410
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,059
2024年12月31日和2025年12月31日

411
00:12:23,059 --> 00:12:27,480
公司发生了与执行飞机相关的费用十七点

412
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,350
二百万和七百七十万

413
00:12:29,350 --> 00:12:31,549
一年内花费十七点二百万用于商务和个人旅行

414
00:12:31,549 --> 00:12:34,580
这是一项不小的开支

415
00:12:34,580 --> 00:12:37,139
尤其是当这些飞机并非租赁

416
00:12:37,139 --> 00:12:37,720
如文中所述

417
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:38,220
呃

418
00:12:38,220 --> 00:12:38,700
各位先生

419
00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:40,690
布伦特直说

420
00:12:40,690 --> 00:12:42,769
假设使用中型飞机

421
00:12:42,769 --> 00:12:43,269
好的

422
00:12:43,269 --> 00:12:44,110
你知道的

423
00:12:44,110 --> 00:12:47,409
大型豪华轿车可能在乘坐G650

424
00:12:47,409 --> 00:12:50,750
每小时估计费用十五万美元

425
00:12:50,750 --> 00:12:51,929
十七点

426
00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:52,409
呃

427
00:12:52,409 --> 00:12:56,250
二百万仍相当于约一千一百四十七小时飞行

428
00:12:56,250 --> 00:12:58,169
或占全年飞行时间的十三%

429
00:12:58,169 --> 00:12:58,730
听着

430
00:12:58,730 --> 00:13:01,710
我的猜测是卡普四处奔波如猛兽

431
00:13:01,710 --> 00:13:02,049
好的

432
00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:05,799
我认为这是我的看法

433
00:13:05,799 --> 00:13:09,460
卡普是帕兰蒂尔的主要销售员

434
00:13:09,460 --> 00:13:12,980
他无疑是帕兰蒂尔的主要签约人

435
00:13:12,980 --> 00:13:14,200
不是开玩笑

436
00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:16,500
他应该到处跑

437
00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:18,200
全天候忙碌

438
00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:25,220
这个数字是否过高

439
00:13:25,220 --> 00:13:25,639
是的

440
00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:26,279
确实很高

441
00:13:26,279 --> 00:13:28,940
但可以和扎克伯格对比

442
00:13:28,940 --> 00:13:31,659
我不觉得扎克伯格喜欢离开Meta总部

443
00:13:31,659 --> 00:13:34,818
我能想象扎克尽量待在那里

444
00:13:34,818 --> 00:13:37,479
我不认为扎克伯格想要

445
00:13:37,479 --> 00:13:39,958
为什么扎克伯格需要四处奔波

446
00:13:39,958 --> 00:13:41,879
他不需要亲自谈生意

447
00:13:41,879 --> 00:13:46,269
扎克伯格需要每天在Meta总部办公

448
00:13:46,269 --> 00:13:48,129
这与卡普的情况截然不同

449
00:13:48,129 --> 00:13:51,210
卡普必须真的不在总部

450
00:13:51,210 --> 00:13:53,490
卡普需要在道路上奔波

451
00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:55,809
不断与大客户会面

452
00:13:55,809 --> 00:13:58,509
像这样谈成交易

453
00:13:58,509 --> 00:13:59,869
所以和扎克伯格相比

454
00:13:59,869 --> 00:14:01,600
我觉得这个比较不合适

455
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:02,059
比如

456
00:14:02,059 --> 00:14:04,539
可能扎克伯格唯一需要出差的时候

457
00:14:04,539 --> 00:14:06,080
就是必须去见这些政客

458
00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,960
因为他们质疑他们就像今天一样，完全不同

459
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:10,940
非常非常不同

460
00:14:10,940 --> 00:14:11,960
所以啊

461
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,440
但话说回来数字高吗

462
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:14,379
当然数字很高

463
00:14:14,379 --> 00:14:17,250
但是否高到离谱到

464
00:14:17,250 --> 00:14:18,409
天啊

465
00:14:18,409 --> 00:14:19,049
你知道的

466
00:14:19,049 --> 00:14:21,210
我觉得他们现在有点黔驴技穷了

467
00:14:21,210 --> 00:14:21,889
你知道的

468
00:14:21,889 --> 00:14:23,610
公司的增长速度简直疯狂

469
00:14:24,690 --> 00:14:24,889
现在

470
00:14:24,889 --> 00:14:27,879
这也是人们愤怒的原因之一

471
00:14:27,879 --> 00:14:31,600
帕兰蒂尔公司在2025财年未缴纳任何联邦所得税

472
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,940
尽管收入达15亿美元

473
00:14:33,940 --> 00:14:35,399
对吧，听着

474
00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:37,940
公司多年来亏损严重

475
00:14:37,940 --> 00:14:38,279
没错

476
00:14:38,279 --> 00:14:39,700
会有结转亏损的情况

477
00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:41,470
但你看到这种情绪

478
00:14:41,470 --> 00:14:46,009
教师只能在税前扣除最多300美元的教室开支

479
00:14:46,009 --> 00:14:46,909
但最糟糕的

480
00:14:46,909 --> 00:14:51,029
美国最恶劣的公司可以任意扣除开支

481
00:14:51,029 --> 00:14:52,549
比如私人飞机和游艇

482
00:14:52,549 --> 00:14:55,490
并通过商业亏损来实现零纳税

483
00:14:55,490 --> 00:14:56,179
没错

484
00:14:59,379 --> 00:15:01,559
这就是帕兰蒂尔的问题所在

485
00:15:01,559 --> 00:15:06,299
帕兰蒂尔肯定是全民公敌没错

486
00:15:06,299 --> 00:15:08,440
《金融时报》看到的画面他们用

487
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:09,440
很明显他们

488
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:10,480
他们是全民公敌

489
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:11,710
他们会被利用

490
00:15:11,710 --> 00:15:16,350
很可能在下一届选举中作为敌人

491
00:15:17,370 --> 00:15:19,470
合同可能需要重新审查

492
00:15:19,470 --> 00:15:20,669
整个情况很复杂

493
00:15:20,669 --> 00:15:21,850
所以佩尔

494
00:15:21,850 --> 00:15:23,309
他们将陷入风暴

495
00:15:23,309 --> 00:15:24,789
作为帕兰蒂尔股东

496
00:15:24,789 --> 00:15:26,230
你大概明白他们

497
00:15:26,230 --> 00:15:27,929
他们无法摆脱这场风暴

498
00:15:27,929 --> 00:15:28,849
短期内

499
00:15:28,849 --> 00:15:29,889
这不过是

500
00:15:29,889 --> 00:15:32,328
而我经历过必须度过风暴的公司

501
00:15:32,328 --> 00:15:33,048
这很痛苦

502
00:15:33,048 --> 00:15:35,149
就像我过去在Meta的经历

503
00:15:35,149 --> 00:15:37,220
Meta经历了巨大的风暴

504
00:15:37,220 --> 00:15:39,340
政客们一直在调查他们

505
00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:43,690
政府方面他们不得不支付巨额罚款和各种费用

506
00:15:43,690 --> 00:15:45,490
所以像Palantir这样的公司

507
00:15:45,490 --> 00:15:48,490
只需明白它们会在市场停留一阵

508
00:15:48,490 --> 00:15:52,490
如果你想长期持有Palantir股票

509
00:15:52,490 --> 00:15:54,350
你必须接受这一点

510
00:15:54,350 --> 00:15:56,350
因为风暴不会在明天结束

511
00:15:56,350 --> 00:15:58,190
如果你指望这一切消失

512
00:15:58,190 --> 00:16:01,870
所有人不再关注Palantir并以负面眼光看待

513
00:16:01,870 --> 00:16:03,429
这根本不可能

514
00:16:03,429 --> 00:16:06,089
它们会在一段时间内被负面看待

515
00:16:06,089 --> 00:16:06,489
你明白吗

516
00:16:06,489 --> 00:16:07,649
像Burry这样的人

517
00:16:07,649 --> 00:16:08,048
你知道的

518
00:16:08,048 --> 00:16:09,849
试图从负面角度审视一切

519
00:16:09,849 --> 00:16:12,090
他们正试图深入分析所有情况

520
00:16:12,090 --> 00:16:14,450
Carp去年在私人飞机上花费过多

521
00:16:14,450 --> 00:16:14,970
比如你知道的

522
00:16:14,970 --> 00:16:18,190
他们只会关注所有事情所以不管怎样

523
00:16:18,190 --> 00:16:20,490
这里需要记住这一点

524
00:16:20,490 --> 00:16:20,789
好的

525
00:16:20,789 --> 00:16:21,210
好的

526
00:16:21,210 --> 00:16:22,720
让我们进入Tom Lee的分析

527
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:23,639
正如我说的

528
00:16:23,639 --> 00:16:24,879
就在9点后

529
00:16:24,879 --> 00:16:25,720
很高兴见到你

530
00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:26,360
见到你真好

531
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:30,470
你觉得我们开始前会涨到73吗

532
00:16:30,470 --> 00:16:30,789
嗯

533
00:16:30,789 --> 00:16:31,509
查看下方评论

534
00:16:31,509 --> 00:16:32,389
如果你想申请加入

535
00:16:32,389 --> 00:16:33,339
加入我的私密社群

536
00:16:33,339 --> 00:16:35,739
获取所有我的精品课程资料

537
00:16:35,739 --> 00:16:37,739
将你的知识提升到更高水平

538
00:16:37,739 --> 00:16:39,139
访问我们的私密Discord

539
00:16:39,139 --> 00:16:40,269
与我直接交流

540
00:16:40,269 --> 00:16:42,029
以及六七位数会员

541
00:16:42,029 --> 00:16:43,370
获取数千场行业对话

542
00:16:43,370 --> 00:16:45,809
观看我每周独家视频

543
00:16:45,809 --> 00:16:50,679
同时还能看到我在

544
00:16:50,679 --> 00:16:52,000
公开账户的操作

545
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,240
标普指数7300点附近的富国银行账户

546
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:55,659
是的

547
00:16:55,659 --> 00:17:00,690
我们是否正在见证股市的缓慢复苏

548
00:17:00,690 --> 00:17:01,289
你怎么看

549
00:17:01,289 --> 00:17:01,750
嗯

550
00:17:01,750 --> 00:17:02,009
是的

551
00:17:02,009 --> 00:17:04,200
我觉得股市遭受了一些打击

552
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,240
你知道部分原因是软件行业低迷

553
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,779
然后资金从科技板块转向

554
00:17:09,779 --> 00:17:14,299
七大军团涌入枪支制造商和AI领域

555
00:17:14,299 --> 00:17:15,640
整体风险偏好下降

556
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:16,660
金价大幅上涨

557
00:17:16,660 --> 00:17:20,319
但遗憾的是财报已经公布

558
00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:23,089
我们收到了良好的经济数据

559
00:17:23,089 --> 00:17:25,849
我认为风险偏好已充分降温

560
00:17:25,849 --> 00:17:27,759
我们可以逐步攀升

561
00:17:27,759 --> 00:17:30,440
或许艰难地接近七千三

562
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:30,559
嘿

563
00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:33,710
怎么样？ halftime时我们讨论过这个吗

564
00:17:33,710 --> 00:17:35,509
我们是否充分认可

565
00:17:35,509 --> 00:17:40,299
财报季表现多么强劲啊

566
00:17:40,299 --> 00:17:42,779
但我认为股市并未完全反映这一点

567
00:17:42,779 --> 00:17:44,680
因为我们出现了大幅超预期

568
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,150
大量公司业绩超出预期

569
00:17:47,150 --> 00:17:47,950
嗯

570
00:17:47,950 --> 00:17:48,789
这已经显现出来

571
00:17:48,789 --> 00:17:50,049
或许在小型股中

572
00:17:50,049 --> 00:17:50,970
但在我看来

573
00:17:50,970 --> 00:17:51,589
但我说

574
00:17:51,589 --> 00:17:51,869
你知道的

575
00:17:51,869 --> 00:17:52,309
我的意思是

576
00:17:52,309 --> 00:17:56,409
就像我们预期两位数的盈利增长

577
00:17:56,409 --> 00:18:02,348
这将是叙事的核心支柱

578
00:18:02,348 --> 00:18:04,608
解释为何股市将继续上涨

579
00:18:04,608 --> 00:18:06,689
然后市场出现剧烈波动

580
00:18:06,689 --> 00:18:07,869
你知道的

581
00:18:07,869 --> 00:18:08,890
现在我们不确定

582
00:18:08,890 --> 00:18:09,989
接下来会怎样

583
00:18:09,989 --> 00:18:11,009
你刚才说

584
00:18:11,009 --> 00:18:12,848
我们将实现这种盈利增长

585
00:18:12,848 --> 00:18:14,028
我们会一切顺利

586
00:18:14,028 --> 00:18:14,348
是的

587
00:18:14,348 --> 00:18:14,628
我的意思是

588
00:18:14,628 --> 00:18:16,108
稍安勿躁

589
00:18:16,108 --> 00:18:17,049
听着

590
00:18:17,049 --> 00:18:22,630
市场刚经历连续三年火爆行情

591
00:18:22,630 --> 00:18:24,069
市场连续三年火爆

592
00:18:24,069 --> 00:18:24,849
没错

593
00:18:24,849 --> 00:18:27,970
如今市场波动很正常

594
00:18:27,970 --> 00:18:29,789
这是自然现象

595
00:18:29,789 --> 00:18:32,589
在连续三年火爆后

596
00:18:32,589 --> 00:18:34,329
这不应令人惊讶

597
00:18:34,329 --> 00:18:34,950
说实话

598
00:18:34,950 --> 00:18:36,630
这就是常有的事

599
00:18:36,630 --> 00:18:38,480
无论收益如何

600
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:39,880
收益可能是个大爆款

601
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:40,480
猜猜看

602
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,660
你还是会在这个市场看到这种波动

603
00:18:42,660 --> 00:18:45,140
就像经历了三年好年景后的自然结果

604
00:18:45,140 --> 00:18:48,239
这也是很难连续四年都保持优秀的原因

605
00:18:48,239 --> 00:18:50,380
这是可能的并且确实发生过

606
00:18:50,380 --> 00:18:51,680
但非常困难

607
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,019
只有少数几次机会

608
00:18:53,019 --> 00:18:53,740
我可以回顾到

609
00:18:53,740 --> 00:18:55,440
在过去的五六十年间

610
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,929
我们曾连续三年取得佳绩

611
00:18:57,929 --> 00:18:58,749
极为罕见

612
00:18:58,749 --> 00:18:59,209
我说啊

613
00:18:59,209 --> 00:19:03,169
有句老话需要很多e来抵消pe

614
00:19:03,169 --> 00:19:04,009
就像你说的

615
00:19:04,009 --> 00:19:05,108
收益表现良好

616
00:19:05,108 --> 00:19:09,579
影响市盈率的因素正在拖累市场

617
00:19:13,199 --> 00:19:14,180
潜在战争风险

618
00:19:14,180 --> 00:19:15,019
你说得对

619
00:19:15,019 --> 00:19:17,460
我认为基本面锚定其实很稳固

620
00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:20,579
这意味着股票最终会回归这一锚点

621
00:19:20,579 --> 00:19:21,220
并继续上涨

622
00:19:21,220 --> 00:19:25,140
你说有三个关键特征：回归七魔股

623
00:19:25,140 --> 00:19:26,559
IGG见底

624
00:19:26,559 --> 00:19:28,970
软件和加密货币见底

625
00:19:28,970 --> 00:19:32,210
但你并不认为这三个条件已达成

626
00:19:32,210 --> 00:19:33,599
不是吗

627
00:19:33,599 --> 00:19:34,079
是的

628
00:19:34,079 --> 00:19:35,819
但我们现在

629
00:19:35,819 --> 00:19:37,980
可能完成了九成进程

630
00:19:37,980 --> 00:19:39,980
因为我看到部分持仓数据

631
00:19:39,980 --> 00:19:40,940
例如

632
00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:41,359
以例来说

633
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:42,920
做市商高盛数据

634
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,099
软件持仓量达多十年低位

635
00:19:46,099 --> 00:19:50,779
而七魔股比传统军工股更便宜

636
00:19:50,779 --> 00:19:52,359
十年来首次出现

637
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,440
三倍市盈率差价

638
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,440
当然在加密货币领域

639
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,599
我们已触及大幅回撤

640
00:19:58,599 --> 00:20:01,880
相当于过去熊市的80%

641
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,940
我认为这些将形成重大交易机会

642
00:20:04,940 --> 00:20:06,519
或许市场已

643
00:20:06,519 --> 00:20:07,730
所以我们有

644
00:20:07,730 --> 00:20:08,769
它们率先见底

645
00:20:08,769 --> 00:20:09,730
随后将启动反弹

646
00:20:09,730 --> 00:20:10,809
即使市场处于顶峰

647
00:20:10,809 --> 00:20:14,789
下周英伟达财报能否揭晓关键

648
00:20:14,789 --> 00:20:18,490
仅仅考虑到我花费的担忧

649
00:20:18,490 --> 00:20:19,930
我的意思是为获得结果

650
00:20:19,930 --> 00:20:21,390
我们需要听取黄坚森的意见

651
00:20:21,390 --> 00:20:23,190
我的意思是这可能奠定底部

652
00:20:23,190 --> 00:20:24,150
你知道的

653
00:20:24,150 --> 00:20:24,569
比如

654
00:20:24,569 --> 00:20:27,390
如果你看看软件指数

655
00:20:27,390 --> 00:20:30,670
这已经是持续严重下跌的第八周了

656
00:20:30,670 --> 00:20:31,470
所以下周

657
00:20:31,470 --> 00:20:31,670
你知道的

658
00:20:31,670 --> 00:20:32,109
正如你所知

659
00:20:32,109 --> 00:20:36,990
有时候九可能是一个重大转折点，可能标志着软件底部

660
00:20:36,990 --> 00:20:37,490
好的

661
00:20:37,490 --> 00:20:41,589
所以听好了

662
00:20:41,589 --> 00:20:43,210
英伟达的数据将会非常出色

663
00:20:43,210 --> 00:20:44,210
它们将会

664
00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:45,089
大家都知道

665
00:20:46,210 --> 00:20:47,179
我们如何得知这一点

666
00:20:47,179 --> 00:20:48,979
因为这就是英伟达的做事方式

667
00:20:48,979 --> 00:20:49,618
每个季度

668
00:20:49,618 --> 00:20:50,499
我们如何得知这一点

669
00:20:50,499 --> 00:20:52,419
嗯，你看过资本支出数据吗

670
00:20:52,419 --> 00:20:53,970
你认为像这样远吗

671
00:20:53,970 --> 00:20:56,410
其中大部分资金直接流入英伟达口袋

672
00:20:56,410 --> 00:20:58,210
这简直不是什么高科技

673
00:20:58,210 --> 00:20:59,750
指引将会非常出色

674
00:20:59,750 --> 00:21:00,890
数据将会非常出色

675
00:21:00,890 --> 00:21:03,959
如果市场对英伟达极度兴奋

676
00:21:03,959 --> 00:21:04,259
比如

677
00:21:04,259 --> 00:21:04,999
这是有可能的

678
00:21:04,999 --> 00:21:06,078
但这很愚蠢

679
00:21:06,078 --> 00:21:07,980
就像英伟达

680
00:21:07,980 --> 00:21:08,779
数据将会非常出色

681
00:21:08,779 --> 00:21:09,859
指引将会非常出色

682
00:21:09,859 --> 00:21:10,940
财报电话会议将会非常出色

683
00:21:10,940 --> 00:21:11,980
詹将要谈到

684
00:21:11,980 --> 00:21:14,400
我们将卖出万亿级芯片

685
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,950
我们在这里在讨论什么

686
00:21:16,950 --> 00:21:20,259
兄弟，听着，加密货币

687
00:21:20,259 --> 00:21:20,940
听着

688
00:21:20,940 --> 00:21:22,480
比特币以太坊

689
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:23,720
我

690
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,000
这种价格走势并不理想

691
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,559
没错，这些资产受价格驱动

692
00:21:28,559 --> 00:21:29,779
价格走势

693
00:21:29,779 --> 00:21:32,140
而它们的价格走势糟糕

694
00:21:32,140 --> 00:21:33,119
就像它们

695
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:33,920
呃

696
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,619
没有任何复苏迹象

697
00:21:36,819 --> 00:21:39,960
而市场目前正处于历史高位

698
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,579
你只需要想想天啊

699
00:21:41,579 --> 00:21:43,789
如果市场暴跌十个百分点

700
00:21:43,789 --> 00:21:44,609
在哪儿的

701
00:21:44,609 --> 00:21:45,910
比特币和以太坊会去哪

702
00:21:45,910 --> 00:21:47,250
记住

703
00:21:47,250 --> 00:21:47,950
比特币周期

704
00:21:47,950 --> 00:21:48,869
我一直都在谈论这个

705
00:21:48,869 --> 00:21:49,549
它应该会

706
00:21:49,549 --> 00:21:50,410
它应该会

707
00:21:50,410 --> 00:21:51,049
我们拭目以待

708
00:21:51,049 --> 00:21:52,890
但预计不会见底

709
00:21:52,890 --> 00:21:55,990
直到今年第四季度

710
00:21:55,990 --> 00:21:57,769
大约三万美元左右

711
00:21:57,769 --> 00:22:00,849
所以比特币周期很准确

712
00:22:00,849 --> 00:22:03,309
还有很长的路要走

713
00:22:03,309 --> 00:22:04,849
比特币还会再跌50%

714
00:22:04,849 --> 00:22:05,269
另外

715
00:22:05,269 --> 00:22:09,778
如果准确的话以太坊可能跌到800美元

716
00:22:10,319 --> 00:22:12,160
我觉得汤姆·李损失惨重

717
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:12,599
现在

718
00:22:12,599 --> 00:22:13,279
做好准备

719
00:22:13,279 --> 00:22:14,819
现在还没什么大问题

720
00:22:14,819 --> 00:22:16,539
但要看比特币是否

721
00:22:16,539 --> 00:22:18,890
嗯周期是否准确

722
00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:21,849
我们将看到2月新房建设者信心下降

723
00:22:21,849 --> 00:22:24,170
住房可负担性仍是持续挑战

724
00:22:24,170 --> 00:22:24,609
好的

725
00:22:28,190 --> 00:22:29,714
可能是下半年

726
00:22:29,859 --> 00:22:30,460
是的

727
00:22:30,460 --> 00:22:33,319
我认为会回调至四

728
00:22:33,319 --> 00:22:34,000
四到四点五之间

729
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,940
当我们接近这个区间时

730
00:22:35,940 --> 00:22:41,098
你会听到政府对房贷问题的担忧

731
00:22:41,098 --> 00:22:44,338
在可负担性背景下

732
00:22:44,338 --> 00:22:47,920
会更多讨论收益率曲线控制

733
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,890
我认为利率将维持在四到四点五

734
00:22:50,890 --> 00:22:55,250
平均更接近四点五

735
00:22:57,109 --> 00:22:57,529
你知道的

736
00:23:00,630 --> 00:23:05,190
看看这些被重创的软件股

737
00:23:05,190 --> 00:23:05,910
市盈率

738
00:23:05,910 --> 00:23:07,329
现在或半

739
00:23:07,329 --> 00:23:08,410
远低于从前

740
00:23:08,410 --> 00:23:09,190
我不知道

741
00:23:09,190 --> 00:23:10,710
我只是好奇你怎么看

742
00:23:12,210 --> 00:23:16,119
但你肯定接触过仍在投资的人

743
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,220
你对这种情况有什么看法

744
00:23:18,220 --> 00:23:19,700
是否存在这样的机会

745
00:23:19,700 --> 00:23:22,509
或者你必须非常谨慎行事

746
00:23:22,630 --> 00:23:24,589
所以我可以说在另一个市场

747
00:23:24,589 --> 00:23:29,829
我们不再像去年那样痴迷人工智能

748
00:23:29,829 --> 00:23:32,009
这是大卫定义的市场

749
00:23:32,009 --> 00:23:35,009
我认为并将继续由三个词定义

750
00:23:35,009 --> 00:23:35,809
波动性

751
00:23:37,049 --> 00:23:37,849
分散性

752
00:23:37,849 --> 00:23:41,420
你将看到更多分散性和碎片化

753
00:23:41,420 --> 00:23:44,960
我会自下而上构建仓位

754
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,039
而不是自上而下

755
00:23:46,039 --> 00:23:52,509
我一定会挑选受市场理论影响的公司

756
00:23:52,509 --> 00:23:53,170
以柠檬为例

757
00:23:53,170 --> 00:23:55,089
意味着在下跌过程中超调

758
00:23:55,089 --> 00:23:59,750
因为它们最终会与弱势股形成技术关联

759
00:23:59,750 --> 00:24:03,390
我认为这对个股选择是巨大机会

760
00:24:03,390 --> 00:24:07,789
尤其是在人工智能领域及其影响领域

761
00:24:07,789 --> 00:24:09,150
对我来说

762
00:24:09,150 --> 00:24:12,338
这是一个应该关注新股票的世界

763
00:24:12,338 --> 00:24:13,858
我在寻找新股票

764
00:24:13,858 --> 00:24:17,009
我正在看的是帕洛阿尔托网络

765
00:24:17,009 --> 00:24:19,990
帕洛阿尔托网络这只股票

766
00:24:22,869 --> 00:24:26,940
我相信我能够飞翔

767
00:24:26,940 --> 00:24:28,799
我们来看看这里

768
00:24:28,799 --> 00:24:30,359
帕洛阿尔托网络

769
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,190
嗯

770
00:24:33,190 --> 00:24:34,509
让我们移除沙盘

771
00:24:34,509 --> 00:24:37,309
并移除标普500指数

772
00:24:37,309 --> 00:24:37,750
是的

773
00:24:37,750 --> 00:24:38,529
152美元

774
00:24:38,529 --> 00:24:41,964
今天帕洛阿尔托网络股价见

775
00:24:42,109 --> 00:24:45,210
长期来看这是一只优质股票，五年上涨

776
00:24:45,210 --> 00:24:46,529
涨幅达130%

777
00:24:46,529 --> 00:24:49,210
但毫无疑问这只股票遭受重创

778
00:24:49,210 --> 00:24:50,950
但这也伴随着ITV

779
00:24:50,950 --> 00:24:54,730
以及所有软件股在一年内

780
00:24:54,730 --> 00:24:56,190
现在已明显走低

781
00:24:57,509 --> 00:24:59,829
目前下跌约2.7%

782
00:24:59,829 --> 00:25:04,119
当前股价下跌15%，年至今

783
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:10,420
但无论如何这是几乎所有大公司使用的网络安全公司

784
00:25:10,420 --> 00:25:14,980
似乎不会被取代

785
00:25:14,980 --> 00:25:18,049
这实际上是一只非常有趣的股票

786
00:25:18,049 --> 00:25:19,230
帕洛阿尔托网络

787
00:25:19,230 --> 00:25:23,680
他们的投资组合自下而上筛选，此时能捕捉优质低价股

788
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,640
这并不意味着全板块买入

789
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,230
而是选择资产负债表强劲的公司

790
00:25:30,230 --> 00:25:32,869
商业模式和领导力强大的企业

791
00:25:34,309 --> 00:25:36,670
你预见到今年剩余时间的波动性

792
00:25:36,670 --> 00:25:38,720
这纯粹与市场相关吗

793
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,799
似乎在赢家和输家之间分化

794
00:25:40,799 --> 00:25:43,500
或者也与地缘政治有关

795
00:25:43,500 --> 00:25:47,409
美国和伊朗正聚焦第二轮谈判

796
00:25:47,409 --> 00:25:47,888
是的

797
00:25:47,888 --> 00:25:52,088
这既涉及地缘经济而非单纯地缘政治

798
00:25:52,088 --> 00:26:00,699
意味着经济结果和政策将越来越脱离经济逻辑

799
00:26:00,699 --> 00:26:02,919
更多取决于国家安全

800
00:26:02,919 --> 00:26:05,398
地缘政治与国内政治

801
00:26:05,398 --> 00:26:05,979
你知道的

802
00:26:05,979 --> 00:26:07,659
我们不再有统一主题

803
00:26:07,659 --> 00:26:09,609
我成长在一个简单的世界

804
00:26:09,609 --> 00:26:11,650
那时有两个主题

805
00:26:11,650 --> 00:26:12,470
全球化

806
00:26:12,470 --> 00:26:15,049
各国日益紧密的整合

807
00:26:15,049 --> 00:26:17,199
华盛顿共识

808
00:26:17,199 --> 00:26:19,138
经济运行的某些方式

809
00:26:19,138 --> 00:26:20,999
这些都不复存在了

810
00:26:20,999 --> 00:26:24,759
未来我们将面临大量波动

811
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:25,480
没错

812
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:25,920
嗯

813
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,380
欧洲显然也在应对这个问题

814
00:26:28,380 --> 00:26:28,799
嗯

815
00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:32,440
鉴于未来可能出现大量波动

816
00:26:33,829 --> 00:26:35,299
首先

817
00:26:35,660 --> 00:26:38,099
我年初就告诉过你

818
00:26:38,099 --> 00:26:39,279
我们现在处于特朗普股市

819
00:26:39,279 --> 00:26:41,299
波动性将持续存在，适应吧

820
00:26:41,299 --> 00:26:41,769
没错

821
00:26:41,769 --> 00:26:43,369
市场总体本就波动

822
00:26:43,369 --> 00:26:46,650
但特朗普股市的波动性更显著

823
00:26:46,650 --> 00:26:47,769
如果你在第一任期获胜

824
00:26:47,769 --> 00:26:49,920
你已看到一些波动

825
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:50,920
正如我之前告诉你们的

826
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:51,160
你们明白的

827
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,640
会有特定时间段

828
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:53,380
嗯

829
00:26:53,380 --> 00:26:54,539
你会

830
00:26:54,539 --> 00:26:57,259
在思考要买多少兰博基尼

831
00:26:57,259 --> 00:26:59,480
下一秒却在考虑能否负担

832
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:00,980
甚至买不起麦当劳

833
00:27:00,980 --> 00:27:02,099
你知道的

834
00:27:02,099 --> 00:27:03,190
这就是这种股市

835
00:27:03,190 --> 00:27:04,490
我们身处这样的市场

836
00:27:04,490 --> 00:27:05,549
正是这种市场

837
00:27:05,549 --> 00:27:06,289
这种类型的股市

838
00:27:06,289 --> 00:27:07,609
我们将持续处于

839
00:27:07,609 --> 00:27:09,410
会有大幅上涨

840
00:27:09,410 --> 00:27:10,369
也会有大幅下跌

841
00:27:10,369 --> 00:27:11,250
会有特定时段

842
00:27:11,250 --> 00:27:14,210
当你的投资组合不断上涨并创下新高

843
00:27:14,210 --> 00:27:14,789
历史新高

844
00:27:14,789 --> 00:27:15,450
新的历史新高

845
00:27:15,450 --> 00:27:15,849
然后你抬头看

846
00:27:15,849 --> 00:27:16,130
你知道就像

847
00:27:16,130 --> 00:27:18,250
天啊我又一天赚了三万

848
00:27:18,250 --> 00:27:19,109
又五万

849
00:27:19,109 --> 00:27:19,869
又十万

850
00:27:19,869 --> 00:27:20,450
天啊

851
00:27:20,450 --> 00:27:21,049
这太容易了

852
00:27:21,049 --> 00:27:21,809
这是最好的事

853
00:27:21,809 --> 00:27:22,769
这可能在其他时间段

854
00:27:22,769 --> 00:27:23,730
兄弟

855
00:27:23,730 --> 00:27:25,890
我什么时候才能再创历史新高

856
00:27:25,890 --> 00:27:27,289
我离它还那么远

857
00:27:27,289 --> 00:27:29,279
哦这就是现状

858
00:27:29,279 --> 00:27:29,900
所以

859
00:27:29,900 --> 00:27:30,440
你知道的

860
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:31,819
不要因此感到沮丧

861
00:27:31,819 --> 00:27:34,359
保持长期投资视角

862
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:35,180
长期优质企业

863
00:27:35,180 --> 00:27:36,349
以及所有这些好东西

864
00:27:36,349 --> 00:27:37,089
不要

865
00:27:37,089 --> 00:27:37,509
你知道的

866
00:27:37,509 --> 00:27:39,130
关注收入与支出

867
00:27:39,130 --> 00:27:40,809
确保收入超过支出

868
00:27:40,809 --> 00:27:42,200
明智投资

869
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:43,299
优质企业

870
00:27:43,299 --> 00:27:44,799
做好研究 控制

871
00:27:44,799 --> 00:27:48,200
你能控制的部分 市场会自行发展

872
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:48,359
迈克

873
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,390
威尔逊 新牛市和盈利周期

874
00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:54,029
尤其是指数中滞后的板块

875
00:27:54,029 --> 00:27:55,470
这是你十一月中旬的判断

876
00:27:55,470 --> 00:27:56,730
这是你的观点吗

877
00:27:56,730 --> 00:27:58,414
你仍然坚持

878
00:27:59,039 --> 00:27:59,799
是的

879
00:27:59,799 --> 00:28:00,200
嗯

880
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:00,619
下午好

881
00:28:00,619 --> 00:28:01,279
首先

882
00:28:01,279 --> 00:28:02,099
我可以说是的

883
00:28:02,099 --> 00:28:02,619
我的意思是

884
00:28:02,619 --> 00:28:02,880
你知道的

885
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,640
我们去年五月开始讲述的故事

886
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,079
中期更新正是如此

887
00:28:08,079 --> 00:28:13,279
我认为我们的观点仍与主流不同

888
00:28:13,279 --> 00:28:18,329
解放日标志着我们所说的滚动衰退结束

889
00:28:18,329 --> 00:28:21,119
我们不仅进入新盈利周期

890
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:22,740
更进入新经济周期

891
00:28:22,740 --> 00:28:25,660
这也是我们现在看到的扩散趋势

892
00:28:25,660 --> 00:28:29,700
因为经济中有许多部分长期陷入困境

893
00:28:29,700 --> 00:28:32,199
过去三年左右一直处于衰退中

894
00:28:32,199 --> 00:28:34,259
现在终于开始复苏了

895
00:28:34,259 --> 00:28:36,329
比如消费品领域

896
00:28:36,329 --> 00:28:39,049
部分金融和工业部门

897
00:28:39,049 --> 00:28:41,150
显然我们正在从AI领域获得提振

898
00:28:41,150 --> 00:28:42,839
同时也受益于

899
00:28:42,839 --> 00:28:43,299
你知道的

900
00:28:43,299 --> 00:28:45,940
过去几年持续支出不足

901
00:28:45,940 --> 00:28:48,259
科技领域的一些部分仍表现良好

902
00:28:48,259 --> 00:28:50,900
这就是为什么我要像挽救蛋糕一样挽救它

903
00:28:50,900 --> 00:28:52,019
就像蛋糕一样

904
00:28:52,019 --> 00:28:53,819
如果股价下跌

905
00:28:54,220 --> 00:28:55,759
比如说五个百分点或更少

906
00:28:55,759 --> 00:28:57,720
甚至明天就上涨

907
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,440
不要对此感到惊讶

908
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,460
你不应该对此感到惊讶的原因

909
00:29:01,460 --> 00:29:04,079
人们会观察某只股票

910
00:29:04,079 --> 00:29:06,230
比如蛋糕公司，最终会想

911
00:29:06,230 --> 00:29:09,750
预计未来一年数据会大幅改善

912
00:29:09,750 --> 00:29:11,069
在未来几年

913
00:29:11,069 --> 00:29:11,910
所以是的

914
00:29:11,910 --> 00:29:13,730
去年并不是最激动人心的一年

915
00:29:13,730 --> 00:29:15,789
但2026年会好很多

916
00:29:15,789 --> 00:29:17,190
2027年会更好

917
00:29:17,190 --> 00:29:18,529
我们将加强经济

918
00:29:18,529 --> 00:29:20,539
这是当前的观点

919
00:29:20,539 --> 00:29:21,460
这可能有误

920
00:29:21,460 --> 00:29:23,779
但最终看市场

921
00:29:23,779 --> 00:29:27,359
市场显示经济将在未来几年好转

922
00:29:27,359 --> 00:29:30,680
这也是为什么你会看到这些股票广泛上涨

923
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:31,200
你知道的

924
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:32,299
你看到的是趋势动能

925
00:29:32,299 --> 00:29:34,409
而大型科技公司并未停滞

926
00:29:34,409 --> 00:29:37,249
因为这些公司本应表现良好

927
00:29:37,249 --> 00:29:38,169
无论经济如何

928
00:29:38,169 --> 00:29:39,648
这些公司表现依然稳健

929
00:29:39,648 --> 00:29:42,059
即使过去几年经济疲软

930
00:29:42,059 --> 00:29:45,970
但如果你相信我们进入新的经济周期

931
00:29:46,690 --> 00:29:47,490
你知道的

932
00:29:47,490 --> 00:29:49,950
很难看空餐饮业

933
00:29:49,950 --> 00:29:50,250
没错

934
00:29:50,250 --> 00:29:51,890
很难看空旅游业

935
00:29:51,890 --> 00:29:55,509
很难看空酒店和消费品

936
00:29:55,509 --> 00:29:55,990
没错

937
00:29:55,990 --> 00:29:57,230
像这些行业

938
00:29:57,230 --> 00:30:01,460
需要记住的是

939
00:30:01,460 --> 00:30:02,579
这才是真正的故事

940
00:30:02,579 --> 00:30:05,359
我们在11月加大了押注

941
00:30:05,359 --> 00:30:06,779
因为证据逐渐显现

942
00:30:06,779 --> 00:30:08,180
五月时我们并不知情

943
00:30:08,180 --> 00:30:09,099
但现在我们知道了

944
00:30:09,099 --> 00:30:09,440
我是说

945
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,980
中位数股票的盈利增长情况

946
00:30:11,980 --> 00:30:15,420
而罗素三千指数现在年同比增长已突破两位数

947
00:30:15,420 --> 00:30:16,900
这是四年来的首次

948
00:30:16,900 --> 00:30:18,259
所以到底发生了什么

949
00:30:18,259 --> 00:30:21,180
如果你不想错过像耐克这样的股票

950
00:30:21,180 --> 00:30:22,400
像露华浓这样的股票

951
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,559
这类股票若经济需强化

952
00:30:24,559 --> 00:30:26,740
甚至像万豪酒店这样的股票

953
00:30:28,059 --> 00:30:29,240
不要挡他们的路

954
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:30,059
比如你有

955
00:30:30,059 --> 00:30:33,460
如果未来几年经济持续改善

956
00:30:33,630 --> 00:30:35,210
不要抛售这些股票

957
00:30:35,210 --> 00:30:35,789
哦天啊

958
00:30:37,069 --> 00:30:39,150
这能持续多久

959
00:30:39,150 --> 00:30:41,250
你知道什么会破坏这种局面

960
00:30:41,250 --> 00:30:42,740
你知道你该为此支付什么

961
00:30:42,740 --> 00:30:43,960
我是说这些问题总是存在

962
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:44,819
但但

963
00:30:44,819 --> 00:30:47,640
但你问题的第一部分答案明确

964
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:48,039
是的

965
00:30:48,039 --> 00:30:50,519
我们正处于新的盈利与经济周期

966
00:30:50,519 --> 00:30:52,500
市场已识别出这一点

967
00:30:52,500 --> 00:30:53,279
嘿兄弟

968
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:57,490
看到这种个股波动

969
00:30:57,490 --> 00:30:59,299
在个股层面

970
00:30:59,299 --> 00:31:00,660
也在行业层面

971
00:31:00,660 --> 00:31:02,519
但当你看标普五百指数

972
00:31:02,519 --> 00:31:04,720
今年其实没有太大变化

973
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,259
需要什么才能突破当前区间

974
00:31:07,259 --> 00:31:11,269
什么催化剂能让我们突破那七千点关键位

975
00:31:11,269 --> 00:31:13,259
大家都在等待的

976
00:31:13,380 --> 00:31:13,819
是的

977
00:31:13,819 --> 00:31:14,700
这似乎就是问题核心

978
00:31:14,700 --> 00:31:15,019
我是说

979
00:31:15,019 --> 00:31:16,480
显然股票投资者

980
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:17,019
并不意味着

981
00:31:17,019 --> 00:31:18,299
如果你能在其他领域获利

982
00:31:18,299 --> 00:31:18,880
也没问题

983
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,200
我认为核心信息是市场

984
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,660
标普指数整体不会大幅波动

985
00:31:23,660 --> 00:31:25,519
但许多行业表现良好

986
00:31:25,519 --> 00:31:26,480
这才是关键

987
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,079
回到你的问题

988
00:31:28,079 --> 00:31:29,819
我认为突破的关键

989
00:31:29,819 --> 00:31:31,200
最终是两件事

990
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:31,680
首先是

991
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,269
人工智能资本支出周期存在不确定性

992
00:31:36,269 --> 00:31:41,078
可能对劳动力市场和其他领域造成的冲击

993
00:31:41,078 --> 00:31:43,378
因此我认为我们正处于一个关键测试期

994
00:31:43,378 --> 00:31:44,858
现在我们担心这周的情况

995
00:31:44,858 --> 00:31:45,439
我们认为

996
00:31:45,439 --> 00:31:46,319
最终

997
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:47,920
现在还为时过早

998
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,680
要给AI周期泼冷水可能为时过早

999
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:51,640
它才刚刚起步

1000
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,480
从我们这边来看

1001
00:32:02,729 --> 00:32:06,140
无论谁上任或就职

1002
00:32:06,140 --> 00:32:08,319
所以我们必须经历这个

1003
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:09,440
你知道提名过程

1004
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,059
确认听证会

1005
00:32:11,059 --> 00:32:13,980
然后我们需要更多了解他的实际意图

1006
00:32:13,980 --> 00:32:16,559
所以你知道这可能导致

1007
00:32:16,559 --> 00:32:19,720
市场可能再挣扎一两个月

1008
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,779
最终我们认为一旦他就职

1009
00:32:21,779 --> 00:32:24,670
我们认为这将成为另一个催化剂

1010
00:32:24,670 --> 00:32:26,470
市场可能迎来强劲的第二季度

1011
00:32:26,470 --> 00:32:27,990
我们坚持我们的七

1012
00:32:27,990 --> 00:32:31,170
年底标普将达800美元的目标价

1013
00:32:31,170 --> 00:32:32,630
所以核心来说

1014
00:32:32,630 --> 00:32:35,250
有两件事可能打破市场

1015
00:32:35,250 --> 00:32:37,789
一种是经济

1016
00:32:37,789 --> 00:32:40,910
看到经济数据强劲

1017
00:32:40,910 --> 00:32:43,309
但CPI持续下降

1018
00:32:43,309 --> 00:32:45,529
这意味着需要在通胀消失时提振经济

1019
00:32:45,529 --> 00:32:46,710
当通胀终结

1020
00:32:46,710 --> 00:32:48,940
这将是最佳情况

1021
00:32:48,940 --> 00:32:50,819
因为美联储可以降息

1022
00:32:50,819 --> 00:32:51,299
你知道的

1023
00:32:51,299 --> 00:32:54,539
可能比预期更频繁地降息以支持经济复苏

1024
00:32:54,539 --> 00:32:56,119
这可能被视为利好

1025
00:32:56,119 --> 00:32:57,220
另一个可能是

1026
00:32:57,220 --> 00:32:57,500
嗯

1027
00:32:57,500 --> 00:32:58,500
甚至更现实

1028
00:32:58,500 --> 00:33:01,170
如果要寻找突破点

1029
00:33:01,170 --> 00:33:02,599
下个季度

1030
00:33:02,599 --> 00:33:04,339
当企业公布财报时，仍有

1031
00:33:04,339 --> 00:33:04,680
你知道的

1032
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,160
大公司仍需

1033
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:06,420
你知道的

1034
00:33:06,420 --> 00:33:09,000
还有两个月公布下一季财报

1035
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:09,660
我说的是Meta

1036
00:33:09,660 --> 00:33:10,380
我说的是亚马逊

1037
00:33:10,380 --> 00:33:14,980
这类公司展现显著收入增长

1038
00:33:14,980 --> 00:33:19,509
证明资本支出有效

1039
00:33:19,509 --> 00:33:23,660
如果Meta公布3.5%-3.7%的营收增长率

1040
00:33:23,660 --> 00:33:26,700
如果AWS加速增长到二十多%

1041
00:33:26,700 --> 00:33:29,240
可能像30%的增长率

1042
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:30,410
好的

1043
00:33:30,809 --> 00:33:32,250
科技巨头再次启动增长

1044
00:33:32,250 --> 00:33:33,369
人们会说你知道吗

1045
00:33:33,369 --> 00:33:33,670
好的

1046
00:33:33,670 --> 00:33:35,769
他们在大量投入看营收增长

1047
00:33:35,769 --> 00:33:37,049
现在简直太离谱了

1048
00:33:37,049 --> 00:33:40,920
营收增长对这些公司可能非常好

1049
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,039
但并不是说

1050
00:33:42,039 --> 00:33:42,400
啊

1051
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,400
我的天啊AWS增长接近30%

1052
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,420
业务规模这么大Meta却只有三

1053
00:33:49,420 --> 00:33:50,759
五%的营收增长数据

1054
00:33:50,759 --> 00:33:51,019
三十

1055
00:33:51,019 --> 00:33:54,789
七%的增长率看趋势开始回升

1056
00:33:54,789 --> 00:33:55,930
因为人们会说好吧

1057
00:33:55,930 --> 00:33:56,710
他们在疯狂投入

1058
00:33:56,710 --> 00:33:57,930
但看看营收增长

1059
00:33:57,930 --> 00:33:59,009
这太荒谬了

1060
00:33:59,009 --> 00:34:01,049
所以他们明智地花钱了

1061
00:34:01,049 --> 00:34:01,369
好的

1062
00:34:01,369 --> 00:34:02,509
各位感谢大家一如既往的参与

1063
00:34:02,509 --> 00:34:03,450
非常感谢你们的到来

1064
00:34:03,450 --> 00:34:05,000
感谢订阅我们的频道

1065
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:05,359
呃

1066
00:34:05,359 --> 00:34:05,680
再次强调

1067
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:06,400
我的前股票群组

1068
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:07,920
如果你想申请加入我们

1069
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,010
今日置顶评论中有链接

1070
00:34:10,010 --> 00:34:13,269
这是一个主要面向净资产超百万美元的群体

1071
00:34:13,269 --> 00:34:14,380
你仍然可以申请

1072
00:34:14,380 --> 00:34:17,780
如果你净资产不足百万可能不太适合我们

1073
00:34:17,780 --> 00:34:18,639
我们拭目以待吧

1074
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:19,980
衷心祝福大家有个美好一天

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