BV1ZhPqzhEmT · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,120 大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:02,779 在今天的视频中 3 00:00:02,779 --> 00:00:07,330 我们将讨论之前被称为高级资金消耗器的内容 4 00:00:07,330 --> 00:00:07,990 现在 5 00:00:07,990 --> 00:00:10,529 每股价格为190美元 6 00:00:10,529 --> 00:00:11,849 这是AMD 7 00:00:11,849 --> 00:00:12,630 我不知道 8 00:00:12,630 --> 00:00:14,009 想个新绰号 9 00:00:14,009 --> 00:00:17,210 我们以前称它为资金翻倍器 10 00:00:17,210 --> 00:00:19,410 也许现在它已回落至两百美元以下 11 00:00:19,410 --> 00:00:23,050 过去十二个月你可以想个新绰号 12 00:00:23,050 --> 00:00:25,269 仍上涨了94.4% 13 00:00:25,269 --> 00:00:26,210 4.4% 14 00:00:26,210 --> 00:00:27,109 今年以来 15 00:00:27,109 --> 00:00:30,829 股价下跌了14.5% 16 00:00:30,829 --> 00:00:33,609 公司市值达3238亿美元 17 00:00:33,609 --> 00:00:34,810 80亿美元 18 00:00:34,810 --> 00:00:37,679 市盈率为76.1倍 19 00:00:37,679 --> 00:00:39,560 但前瞻市盈率为2.6倍 20 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:40,579 6.2倍 21 00:00:40,579 --> 00:00:40,859 是的 22 00:00:40,859 --> 00:00:44,799 目前它实际上比英伟达更贵 23 00:00:44,799 --> 00:00:49,420 当然前瞻市盈率基于分析师预期 24 00:00:49,420 --> 00:00:50,579 所以在今天的视频中 25 00:00:50,579 --> 00:00:52,039 让我们重新审视投资逻辑 26 00:00:52,039 --> 00:00:53,119 让我们看看数据 27 00:00:53,119 --> 00:00:55,039 近期公告将发挥作用 28 00:00:55,039 --> 00:00:57,179 DCF分析将采用悲观假设 29 00:00:57,179 --> 00:01:00,829 准备AMD的熊市和基准情景 30 00:01:00,829 --> 00:01:02,320 如果你喜欢这类视频 31 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,320 请点赞支持 32 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,540 如果能进一步支持我将不胜感激 33 00:01:05,540 --> 00:01:07,340 请查看描述下方的链接 34 00:01:07,340 --> 00:01:09,859 并在置顶评论中列出当前最佳买入理由 35 00:01:09,859 --> 00:01:11,000 或访问full.com/forward 36 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:12,000 斜杠文化投资者 37 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:13,000 非常感谢 38 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:13,879 当然一如既往 39 00:01:13,879 --> 00:01:20,310 特别感谢财政AI频道赞助商 40 00:01:20,310 --> 00:01:23,489 新推出的查询功能在此 41 00:01:23,489 --> 00:01:25,310 所以如果我们查看MD 42 00:01:25,310 --> 00:01:26,049 例如 43 00:01:26,049 --> 00:01:27,329 我们点击MD 44 00:01:27,329 --> 00:01:30,450 可以点击此处添加行业比较 45 00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:31,989 将自动关联英伟达 46 00:01:31,989 --> 00:01:33,049 英特尔等 47 00:01:33,049 --> 00:01:34,730 但如果我们只关注AMD 48 00:01:34,730 --> 00:01:42,640 想知道分析师报告中何时提及Meta及次数 49 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,599 这里提供财报会议等文本 50 00:01:45,599 --> 00:01:49,760 可精确显示提及Meta的时间 51 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,799 假设你想看看他们是否提到了开放 52 00:01:52,799 --> 00:01:53,299 Ai 53 00:01:53,299 --> 00:01:55,989 你要做完全相同的操作 54 00:01:55,989 --> 00:01:57,969 如果你想添加行业竞争对手 55 00:01:57,969 --> 00:01:59,310 你可以添加行业竞争对手 56 00:01:59,310 --> 00:02:02,659 如你所见，它添加了很多内容 57 00:02:02,659 --> 00:02:05,450 你也可以在这里运行相同的搜索查询 58 00:02:05,450 --> 00:02:08,009 然后很容易找到你需要的内容 59 00:02:08,009 --> 00:02:09,550 如果你还记得之前听到的 60 00:02:09,550 --> 00:02:12,729 但你不知道该去哪里搜索 61 00:02:12,729 --> 00:02:14,900 就是这样 62 00:02:14,900 --> 00:02:17,319 我知道你们中的大多数人都已经了解财务AI 63 00:02:17,319 --> 00:02:18,120 但如果你还不知道 64 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,379 描述下方有链接和图钉评论 65 00:02:20,379 --> 00:02:22,289 我们这里每天都使用它 66 00:02:22,289 --> 00:02:23,009 如果你使用该链接 67 00:02:23,009 --> 00:02:24,430 可享15%折扣 68 00:02:24,430 --> 00:02:27,069 前两周免费获得财务Pro 69 00:02:27,069 --> 00:02:28,900 为什么不试试呢 70 00:02:28,900 --> 00:02:29,620 好的 71 00:02:29,620 --> 00:02:31,169 正如我之前所说 72 00:02:31,169 --> 00:02:32,069 AMD 73 00:02:32,069 --> 00:02:33,590 三百二十三点 74 00:02:33,590 --> 00:02:34,389 八亿美元 75 00:02:34,389 --> 00:02:36,550 公司利润率方面 76 00:02:36,830 --> 00:02:37,889 表现相当不错 77 00:02:37,889 --> 00:02:40,050 它可以进一步提升 78 00:02:40,050 --> 00:02:45,550 当前平均和股价目标为每股289美元 79 00:02:45,550 --> 00:02:46,610 记住这个数字 80 00:02:46,610 --> 00:02:48,050 我们现在要做DCF分析 81 00:02:48,050 --> 00:02:52,060 或许可以对比看看他们如何得出这个数字 82 00:02:52,060 --> 00:02:55,120 让我们看看AMD的利润率概况 83 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:55,960 如你所见 84 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,479 我们仍有很大改进空间 85 00:02:58,479 --> 00:02:59,939 这是过去十二个月的数据 86 00:02:59,939 --> 00:03:00,919 我们目前达到10.7%的营业利润率 87 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:02,919 七个百分点营业利润率 88 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,460 回到2021年 89 00:03:04,460 --> 00:03:05,300 仅为2.2% 90 00:03:05,300 --> 00:03:06,520 2.2%的利润率 91 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,909 在自由现金流利润率方面仍有提升空间 92 00:03:10,909 --> 00:03:12,189 我们已经相当高了 93 00:03:12,189 --> 00:03:13,870 19.3%的利润率 94 00:03:13,870 --> 00:03:15,229 但正如我将展示的 95 00:03:15,229 --> 00:03:17,430 目标是接近25%的毛利率 96 00:03:17,430 --> 00:03:21,150 过去十二个月毛利率目标为25% 97 00:03:21,150 --> 00:03:21,750 这是四 98 00:03:21,750 --> 00:03:23,030 9.5%的利润率 99 00:03:23,030 --> 00:03:23,650 当然 100 00:03:23,650 --> 00:03:27,528 如果他们想与英伟达处于同一水平 101 00:03:27,528 --> 00:03:27,829 嗯 102 00:03:27,829 --> 00:03:30,508 这个数字需要进一步提高 103 00:03:30,508 --> 00:03:31,810 净利润率 104 00:03:31,810 --> 00:03:32,969 十二点三百分比 105 00:03:32,969 --> 00:03:36,329 但当然这里的趋势很明确 106 00:03:36,329 --> 00:03:37,449 并且向右延伸 107 00:03:37,449 --> 00:03:39,368 然后如果我们查看最后一个数据 108 00:03:39,368 --> 00:03:41,019 经营活动产生的现金 109 00:03:41,019 --> 00:03:42,598 七十七亿美元 110 00:03:42,598 --> 00:03:45,419 这里同样呈现上升趋势 111 00:03:45,419 --> 00:03:48,340 查看分析师的增长预测 112 00:03:48,340 --> 00:03:50,219 我们可以看到对于财年26年 113 00:03:50,219 --> 00:03:52,840 分析师预计业务将增长三 114 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,449 四点二百分比 115 00:03:54,449 --> 00:03:57,650 然后在财年27年加速至四十 116 00:03:57,650 --> 00:04:01,250 此处预计增长三点二百分比，随后在财年28年 117 00:04:01,250 --> 00:04:04,050 目前增长至二十八点二百分比 118 00:04:04,050 --> 00:04:12,050 预计财年28年营收达八十五四十亿美元，自由现金流 119 00:04:12,050 --> 00:04:16,699 自由现金流在财年26年仅预计增长十点二百分比 120 00:04:16,699 --> 00:04:19,560 随后在财年27年增长七十四点二百分比 121 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,480 并在财年28年再增长四十三点五百分比 122 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,490 达到十八点四亿美元 123 00:04:26,490 --> 00:04:29,490 当然推动这个数字的因素 124 00:04:29,490 --> 00:04:31,949 我们知道这是数据中心收入 125 00:04:31,949 --> 00:04:33,620 但正如我之前所说 126 00:04:33,620 --> 00:04:34,480 一再强调 127 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,779 不要忽视这个蓝色条柱 128 00:04:36,779 --> 00:04:39,579 这是客户收入部分 129 00:04:39,579 --> 00:04:44,329 目前客户收入与这一部分在同一板块 130 00:04:44,329 --> 00:04:44,939 是的 131 00:04:44,939 --> 00:04:46,319 你会移除蓝色条柱 132 00:04:46,319 --> 00:04:48,860 将聚焦于数据中心收入 133 00:04:48,860 --> 00:04:50,160 然后是这个部分 134 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,060 客户与游戏业务 135 00:04:52,060 --> 00:04:54,800 以及嵌入式客户与游戏 136 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,920 我认为这部分仍不会像数据中心那么庞大 137 00:04:57,920 --> 00:04:58,949 当然不是 138 00:04:58,949 --> 00:05:02,769 但它仍是公司增长驱动力 139 00:05:02,769 --> 00:05:05,069 至于营业利润 140 00:05:05,069 --> 00:05:06,949 就像我们看到的英伟达 141 00:05:06,949 --> 00:05:10,519 这几乎就是英伟达早期的故事 142 00:05:10,519 --> 00:05:13,259 尽管英伟达的增长确实加速更快 143 00:05:13,259 --> 00:05:16,220 远超我们看到的MD表现 144 00:05:16,220 --> 00:05:17,379 但我仍预期 145 00:05:17,379 --> 00:05:17,540 是的 146 00:05:17,540 --> 00:05:22,370 数据中心业务将引领公司发展 147 00:05:22,370 --> 00:05:24,488 如果你还记得 148 00:05:24,488 --> 00:05:25,749 应该是十一月 149 00:05:25,749 --> 00:05:26,988 分析师会议期间 150 00:05:26,988 --> 00:05:29,548 他们再次给出了惊人数据 151 00:05:29,548 --> 00:05:35,999 因此我们这里的数据中心总可寻址市场有两百亿美元 152 00:05:35,999 --> 00:05:37,658 这是根据AIM的数据 153 00:05:37,658 --> 00:05:40,240 这些内部预测数据 154 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,360 他们预计到2030年将突破一万亿美金 155 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,540 当然所有人都在引用这个数字 156 00:05:46,540 --> 00:05:48,339 哦超过一万亿美金 157 00:05:48,339 --> 00:05:48,819 好的 158 00:05:48,819 --> 00:05:49,680 巨大的数字 159 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:50,319 好的 160 00:05:50,319 --> 00:05:51,490 太棒了 161 00:05:51,490 --> 00:05:53,550 如果我们来看这里的数据中心 162 00:05:53,550 --> 00:05:56,810 未来三到五年AI收入机会 163 00:05:56,810 --> 00:05:58,930 他们看到超过80% 164 00:05:58,930 --> 00:06:00,490 数据中心AI收入占比 165 00:06:00,490 --> 00:06:01,759 嗯克朗 166 00:06:01,759 --> 00:06:04,959 我们看到数据中心与AI收入的数据 167 00:06:04,959 --> 00:06:08,110 服务器收入市场占有率超50% 168 00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:10,790 存储收入市场占有率超40% 169 00:06:10,790 --> 00:06:14,720 适配收入市场占有率超70% 170 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:20,550 因此他们预计未来三到五年收入将加速增长 171 00:06:20,550 --> 00:06:23,490 数据中心业务增长60% 172 00:06:23,490 --> 00:06:26,300 核心业务增长10% 173 00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:30,908 对于MD总业务则是35%以上 174 00:06:30,908 --> 00:06:33,449 这导致了毛利率的变化 175 00:06:33,449 --> 00:06:39,120 或者未来三到五年这些数据是截至2025年底给出的 176 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,158 所以这些是我们应该预期的数字 177 00:06:42,158 --> 00:06:45,059 到2030年或2030年 178 00:06:45,059 --> 00:06:46,319 2031年 179 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:47,358 毛利率 180 00:06:47,358 --> 00:06:48,819 55至5% 181 00:06:48,819 --> 00:06:49,800 8% 182 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,678 营业利润率超35% 183 00:06:52,678 --> 00:06:53,899 有效税率 184 00:06:53,899 --> 00:06:55,238 13-15% 185 00:06:55,238 --> 00:06:57,658 自由现金流利润率2.5% 186 00:06:57,658 --> 00:07:01,649 每股收益超20美元 187 00:07:01,649 --> 00:07:06,769 如果我们单纯看市盈率和市盈倍数 188 00:07:06,769 --> 00:07:09,350 假设到2030年 189 00:07:09,350 --> 00:07:11,629 四年后的2030年 190 00:07:11,629 --> 00:07:12,870 市盈率是多少 191 00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:16,290 如果现在股价是190美元 192 00:07:16,290 --> 00:07:17,939 市盈率低于10 193 00:07:17,939 --> 00:07:20,100 如果看2030年的市盈率 194 00:07:20,100 --> 00:07:23,500 如果能达到20 195 00:07:23,620 --> 00:07:24,899 差距不大 196 00:07:24,899 --> 00:07:27,300 但毕竟还有四年 197 00:07:27,300 --> 00:07:32,079 因此有人认为看2030年的市盈率没意义 198 00:07:32,079 --> 00:07:34,490 我确实同意 199 00:07:34,490 --> 00:07:35,509 我确实同意 200 00:07:35,509 --> 00:07:38,660 因为首先市盈率是定价指标 201 00:07:38,660 --> 00:07:41,579 今年的P值看起来没问题 202 00:07:41,579 --> 00:07:42,779 所以这是其中一个因素 203 00:07:42,779 --> 00:07:45,569 但看2030年的P值 204 00:07:45,569 --> 00:07:46,329 好的 205 00:07:46,329 --> 00:07:49,610 因为这些数据是AMD提供的 206 00:07:49,610 --> 00:07:52,350 接下来几年我们可以看到 207 00:07:52,350 --> 00:07:55,918 如果这些目标可实现 208 00:07:55,918 --> 00:07:56,699 如果不行 209 00:07:56,699 --> 00:07:57,559 那也没关系 210 00:07:57,559 --> 00:07:59,550 可能哪里出问题了 211 00:07:59,829 --> 00:08:05,670 但每当看到有人用P值来为某些股价辩护 212 00:08:05,670 --> 00:08:07,209 五年后的预测 213 00:08:07,209 --> 00:08:09,829 我对他们的分析很怀疑 214 00:08:09,829 --> 00:08:11,430 所以我不会用这个 215 00:08:11,430 --> 00:08:13,110 我们来做DCF分析 216 00:08:13,110 --> 00:08:14,850 当然在做DCF之前 217 00:08:14,850 --> 00:08:17,199 我们还要记住一点 218 00:08:17,199 --> 00:08:19,240 AMD与MD的OpenAI合作 219 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:24,689 这与MD和Meta最近宣布的合作非常相似 220 00:08:24,689 --> 00:08:27,408 他们告诉我们什么 221 00:08:27,408 --> 00:08:30,509 MD和Meta达成一项多年期 222 00:08:30,509 --> 00:08:35,649 多代合作协议，部署最多6吉瓦的AMD Instinct GPU 223 00:08:35,649 --> 00:08:36,779 GPU 224 00:08:36,779 --> 00:08:41,538 该协议扩展了公司现有战略伙伴关系和路线图 225 00:08:41,538 --> 00:08:47,539 涵盖硅系统和软件，打造专为Meta负载设计的AI平台 226 00:08:47,539 --> 00:08:50,480 作为进一步对齐战略利益的一部分 227 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,100 AMD向Meta发行 228 00:08:52,100 --> 00:08:56,179 以1.6亿股MD普通股为标的的绩效权证 229 00:08:56,179 --> 00:09:01,519 需达到与Instinct GPU出货相关的特定里程碑 230 00:09:01,519 --> 00:09:03,570 GPU出货完成后 231 00:09:03,570 --> 00:09:07,169 首个里程碑与首批1吉瓦出货挂钩 232 00:09:07,169 --> 00:09:12,179 后续里程碑随Meta采购规模增至6吉瓦逐步解锁 233 00:09:12,179 --> 00:09:14,059 vesting还与AMD股价目标挂钩 234 00:09:14,059 --> 00:09:18,789 行权需满足Meta的关键技术与商业里程碑 235 00:09:18,789 --> 00:09:21,769 因此这里再次 236 00:09:21,769 --> 00:09:22,629 如同OpenAI的情况 237 00:09:22,629 --> 00:09:24,750 当然如果业务成功 238 00:09:24,750 --> 00:09:28,029 如果持续增长 239 00:09:28,029 --> 00:09:29,649 如果股价上涨 240 00:09:29,649 --> 00:09:31,090 那么 241 00:09:31,090 --> 00:09:32,149 是的 242 00:09:32,149 --> 00:09:33,269 Meta将获得收益 243 00:09:33,269 --> 00:09:35,179 而我们也是如此 244 00:09:35,179 --> 00:09:38,240 这引出了DCF分析 245 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:38,779 现在 246 00:09:38,779 --> 00:09:42,120 我们从基准情景开始 247 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:43,019 所以基准情景 248 00:09:43,019 --> 00:09:46,129 我设定终值增长率为3% 249 00:09:46,129 --> 00:09:47,730 并开始计算增长 250 00:09:47,730 --> 00:09:49,850 这些基本是市场预测 251 00:09:49,850 --> 00:09:51,210 我们刚刚看到的 252 00:09:51,210 --> 00:09:54,830 现在我没有任何理由改变这一点 253 00:09:54,830 --> 00:09:57,730 当然你所做的调整或修改 254 00:09:57,730 --> 00:10:01,090 你所做的假设则是后续的 255 00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:04,629 实际上你何时会分析牛市和熊市情景 256 00:10:04,629 --> 00:10:05,029 你可以 257 00:10:05,029 --> 00:10:09,759 当然也可以更乐观或更悲观地调整这些 258 00:10:09,759 --> 00:10:14,559 这是我们对未来十年的预期 259 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:15,940 这也是我们所预期的 260 00:10:15,940 --> 00:10:17,609 关于自由现金流 261 00:10:17,609 --> 00:10:21,849 不指望能达到他们告诉我们的25% 262 00:10:21,849 --> 00:10:25,019 我这里定在24% 263 00:10:25,019 --> 00:10:27,980 当前结果相当清晰 264 00:10:27,980 --> 00:10:33,519 基准情景下的上行空间达25.9% 265 00:10:33,799 --> 00:10:35,840 基于这些假设的基准情景 266 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:37,600 当然你可以随时调整 267 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,100 当然即使在基准情景下 268 00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:40,360 终值增长率 269 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:41,839 如果设定为2% 270 00:10:41,839 --> 00:10:44,639 则上行空间变为16.8% 271 00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:45,639 如果提高数值 272 00:10:45,639 --> 00:10:46,839 结果会更高 273 00:10:46,839 --> 00:10:48,759 但我已将牛市情景调高 274 00:10:48,759 --> 00:10:50,940 牛市情景设定为4% 275 00:10:50,940 --> 00:10:54,679 这里我采用了分析师的假设 276 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,370 并基于我们看到的未来三年财政数据上调 277 00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:03,340 因为我相信小米400系列的成功 278 00:11:03,340 --> 00:11:06,200 小米500系列的表现会非常出色 279 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,779 所以我大幅上调了数据 280 00:11:08,779 --> 00:11:12,389 后期阶段也会更高 281 00:11:12,389 --> 00:11:18,120 这里我将25%的自由现金流利润率作为峰值 282 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,730 可能会上涨到26% 283 00:11:20,730 --> 00:11:22,110 但我仍保持在此 284 00:11:22,110 --> 00:11:24,759 假设在乐观情景下 285 00:11:24,759 --> 00:11:27,460 这将引导我们得出 286 00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:31,259 每股381美元的隐含股价 287 00:11:31,259 --> 00:11:36,929 这几乎是当前的两倍 288 00:11:36,929 --> 00:11:39,070 这就是DCF模型的特点 289 00:11:39,070 --> 00:11:39,828 是 290 00:11:39,828 --> 00:11:41,668 你可以随意调整数字 291 00:11:41,668 --> 00:11:43,840 以符合你的叙事 292 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:44,840 契合故事逻辑 293 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,039 这也是为什么我认为设置三种情景 294 00:11:47,039 --> 00:11:50,340 牛市、基准和熊市情景很合理 295 00:11:50,340 --> 00:11:52,700 如果你只关注牛市情景 296 00:11:52,700 --> 00:11:53,600 是的 297 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,059 每只股票都会显得极具投资价值 298 00:11:57,059 --> 00:12:00,049 因为你只关注牛市情景 299 00:12:00,049 --> 00:12:03,989 如果牛市情景不现实 300 00:12:03,989 --> 00:12:05,989 或许在你眼中是现实的 301 00:12:05,989 --> 00:12:08,919 只要你的故事讲得通就很好 302 00:12:08,919 --> 00:12:14,149 但我觉得这里始终保留三种情景分析还是很有必要的 303 00:12:14,149 --> 00:12:15,870 我们正在分析熊市情景 304 00:12:15,870 --> 00:12:18,309 终端增长率设定为2.5% 305 00:12:18,309 --> 00:12:20,669 甚至可以设为2% 306 00:12:20,669 --> 00:12:22,230 其实差别不大 307 00:12:22,230 --> 00:12:25,990 这里的下行风险在-30% 308 00:12:25,990 --> 00:12:27,639 6.6% 309 00:12:27,639 --> 00:12:29,899 为什么呢其实很简单 310 00:12:29,899 --> 00:12:33,720 自由现金流利润率保持在20% 311 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,399 意味着几乎没有改善 312 00:12:36,399 --> 00:12:37,879 从当前情况来看 313 00:12:37,879 --> 00:12:38,919 这合理吗 314 00:12:38,919 --> 00:12:41,039 或许应该设为2.1% 315 00:12:41,039 --> 00:12:43,940 即使是悲观情景 316 00:12:43,940 --> 00:12:44,139 是的 317 00:12:44,139 --> 00:12:44,940 这可能合理 318 00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:48,559 这里的下行风险仍为3.3% 319 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,200 为什么呢因为增长率 320 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:56,610 收入增长率没有分析师预期的那么高 321 00:12:56,610 --> 00:13:01,450 从第三年到第四年出现明显减速 322 00:13:01,450 --> 00:13:02,789 从28. 323 00:13:02,789 --> 00:13:04,590 8%降至9. 324 00:13:04,590 --> 00:13:05,049 6% 325 00:13:05,049 --> 00:13:05,970 9% 326 00:13:05,970 --> 00:13:07,820 并保持在9% 327 00:13:07,820 --> 00:13:10,279 这是相当剧烈的回撤 328 00:13:10,279 --> 00:13:11,970 所以如果你想说你知道的 329 00:13:11,970 --> 00:13:12,490 好吧 330 00:13:12,490 --> 00:13:13,730 它会放缓 331 00:13:13,730 --> 00:13:15,570 但不会这么快 332 00:13:15,570 --> 00:13:17,980 我们将采用15%两倍 333 00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:19,360 然后10% 334 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,419 接着降至9% 335 00:13:21,419 --> 00:13:23,649 这将使我们接近 336 00:13:23,649 --> 00:13:25,269 接近20% 337 00:13:25,269 --> 00:13:27,669 7%的下行风险 338 00:13:27,669 --> 00:13:28,830 如果发生这种情况 339 00:13:28,830 --> 00:13:29,429 当然 340 00:13:29,429 --> 00:13:29,649 是的 341 00:13:29,649 --> 00:13:31,149 这就是熊市情景 342 00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:31,789 这就是 343 00:13:31,789 --> 00:13:32,470 当然 344 00:13:32,470 --> 00:13:36,519 如果业务无法继续产出 345 00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:39,159 如果他们无法成功销售 346 00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:39,700 那么 347 00:13:39,700 --> 00:13:42,120 以及我的六百和七百 348 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,200 可能已有新品牌出现 349 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,159 也许客户 350 00:13:46,159 --> 00:13:49,389 也许嵌入式游戏业务表现不佳 351 00:13:49,389 --> 00:13:49,710 是的 352 00:13:49,710 --> 00:13:52,549 也许英伟达已经占据了99%的市场份额 353 00:13:52,549 --> 00:13:56,200 或者科技巨头正在大幅抢占md领域的市场份额 354 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:57,659 然后从英伟达手中 355 00:13:57,659 --> 00:14:01,840 这需要包含在你的空头报告中 356 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,059 那么我们现在看到的是 357 00:14:03,059 --> 00:14:05,659 一个空头案例，隐含股价为一百美元 358 00:14:05,659 --> 00:14:07,840 我们暂定每股40美元 359 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,899 而看涨案例则为每股381美元 360 00:14:10,899 --> 00:14:13,360 基准案例为每股240美元 361 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,379 我认为这相当现实 362 00:14:15,379 --> 00:14:16,370 这意味着没错 363 00:14:16,370 --> 00:14:20,809 今日已接近25%的上涨空间 364 00:14:20,809 --> 00:14:22,870 基于这些数据 365 00:14:22,870 --> 00:14:23,750 就在这里 366 00:14:23,750 --> 00:14:25,950 这些终端增长率的假设 367 00:14:25,950 --> 00:14:26,070 以及 368 00:14:26,070 --> 00:14:30,688 当然，这里采用的风险无风险利率 369 00:14:30,688 --> 00:14:35,269 我认为当前无风险利率应略高于4% 370 00:14:35,269 --> 00:14:40,409 仍保持23%的基准上涨空间 371 00:14:40,409 --> 00:14:42,169 这引导我展示这张图表 372 00:14:42,169 --> 00:14:42,850 就在这里 373 00:14:42,850 --> 00:14:44,740 我们可以看到日线图上 374 00:14:44,740 --> 00:14:45,059 是的 375 00:14:45,059 --> 00:14:46,860 股价已突破两百日均线 376 00:14:46,860 --> 00:14:49,220 触及两百日移动平均线 377 00:14:49,220 --> 00:14:49,759 你知道的 378 00:14:49,759 --> 00:14:50,649 人们常说 379 00:14:50,649 --> 00:14:54,090 股票最终都会回归两百日均线 380 00:14:54,090 --> 00:14:57,429 而这正是今日所见 381 00:14:57,429 --> 00:14:59,149 在周二时 382 00:14:59,149 --> 00:15:02,610 股价非常接近两百日均线 383 00:15:02,610 --> 00:15:06,490 该均线为每股187美元 384 00:15:06,490 --> 00:15:09,409 这也接近之前的高点 385 00:15:09,409 --> 00:15:10,090 就在这里 386 00:15:10,090 --> 00:15:11,850 2025年8月 387 00:15:11,850 --> 00:15:12,909 RSI处于低位 388 00:15:12,909 --> 00:15:16,710 但日线图上并未明显超卖 389 00:15:16,710 --> 00:15:18,429 快速查看周线图 390 00:15:18,429 --> 00:15:20,139 目前处于中间区域 391 00:15:20,139 --> 00:15:20,840 无人地带 392 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:21,320 就在这里 393 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,179 RSI保持中性 394 00:15:23,179 --> 00:15:25,600 接下来的周线均线是二十日线 395 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,029 位于172.80美元 396 00:15:29,029 --> 00:15:30,250 这是周线数据 397 00:15:30,250 --> 00:15:34,909 但如日线所示已触及两百日均线 398 00:15:34,909 --> 00:15:38,409 这是否是反弹的好时机 399 00:15:38,409 --> 00:15:38,950 可惜的是 400 00:15:38,950 --> 00:15:41,149 目前与公司基本面关联不大 401 00:15:41,149 --> 00:15:43,549 更多与宏观相关 402 00:15:43,549 --> 00:15:45,029 总的来说就是这样 403 00:15:45,029 --> 00:15:45,789 对我来说在这个视频中 404 00:15:45,789 --> 00:15:46,929 告诉我你对什么的看法 405 00:15:46,929 --> 00:15:48,629 Md在下方评论区完成 406 00:15:48,629 --> 00:15:50,830 你的看涨和看跌理由是什么 407 00:15:50,830 --> 00:15:53,149 下方评论区留下价格目标 408 00:15:53,149 --> 00:15:55,769 请查看财政AI获取15%折扣 409 00:15:55,769 --> 00:15:58,299 我们下次再见，拜拜
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