【NaNa说美股】20260302大时代还是太超前了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月2号

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周一

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受中东局势影响

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周末全球市场情绪极度紧张

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周一开市后

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避险资产先行反应

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但是到了美股开盘后

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画风突变

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华尔街给出了完全不同的答案

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美股三大股指大幅低开之后迅速拉升

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盘中一度集体转涨

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尾盘虽有回落

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但最终呢标普与纳指都小幅收涨

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只有道指小幅收跌

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板块之间涨跌互现

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行情分化

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周末积压的战争恐慌情绪

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在一个交易日内基本就被市场自行消化了

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我很久之前哈在视频里曾说过

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昨天也刚对会员朋友们

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我们提到

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就是我们做美股的就要看美股本身

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不要被亚太和欧洲市场所影响

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看那些市场没用的哈

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反而可能让你做出错误的判断

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全球股市都是要看华尔街的脸色

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不是反过来呀

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夜盘或者盘前的价格波动

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那都是情绪愈演

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真正决定方向的是每股开市后的资金选择

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开盘后资金往哪边站

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趋势就往哪边走

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而不是被盘前或者是被海外市场牵着鼻子走

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但是呃有一说一

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这一次美股的强势确实呢超出了常规

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按照历史经验

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战争爆发后的前72个小时

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通产是风险重新定价阶段

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由于事态进展充满不确定性

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投资者担心冲突范围扩大

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资金呢会首先降低股票产口

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增配黄金原油

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美元等避险资产等

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情绪冷静下来后

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市场才会评估事态的规模和走向

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资金逐步回流

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但是今天并没有出现持续的风险折价过程

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指数几乎是低开就立即修复

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说明市场对这个中东冲突可控化的判断呢

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似乎占据了三分关键变量

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就是这个波动率指数VIX的快速回落

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开盘之后

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VX从25附近迅速压缩到了20附近

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这代表期权市场的恐慌溢价被迅速抽离

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大资金利用开盘的恐慌反向卖出了波动率

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VIX的快速回落

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推动了股指的立即反弹

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另外呢

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载标普500指数6800点关口

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堆积了大量的铺子持仓

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做市商在该技术位有极强的对冲意愿哈

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不希望跌破这个位置

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导致伽马风险失控

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只要指数维持在6800点之上

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做市商就处于正干码区间

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这意味着每当大盘小幅回落

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做市商为了对冲风险呢

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就必须被动买入现货

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形成了技术性托底

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所以早盘指数回落到6796点

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就迅速弹起来

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大量空头们看到指数回到6800点上方之后

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立即就选择了平仓止盈

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又进一步推涨了指数

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在一两周前

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市场其实就对中东风险进行过预期交易了

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就是川普呃

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连续派了两艘航母去那边是吧

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但战争真的爆发之后

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反而出现卖事实的反应

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部分投资者认为

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冲突阶段性目标呢已经完成了风险溢价示范

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因此短线选择重新加回风险资产

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周末的时候

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我推荐大家看的这部电影

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逃离德黑兰贝纳flag主演的哈

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不知道大家有没有看到

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里面就有一幕暗藏的玄机

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就是嗯男主购买了阿贡那个剧本之后

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走出来对同伴说要吃taco吗

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然后他俩就去吃了哈

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所以这个可能就是一个预兆

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现在美股反正是越来越离不开搭扣了

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大家也习惯了

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尤其是散户们

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不过今天虽然市场表现的好像利空已经出尽了

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恐慌盘被完全洗掉哈

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多头目前占优

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但是大家不要掉以轻心

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仍需保持警惕

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因为从各方的表态来看

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局势远未结束

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川普今天上午讲话明确表示

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打击行动可能会持续四周

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并且呢不排除后面可能会派遣地面部队

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他还警告称

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针对伊朗真正的大浪潮

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大规模打击尚未真正开始

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敦促在多个中东国家的美国公民

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立即通过商业途径离境呃

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理由是当地存在着严重的安全风险

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这都表明哈这个局势有可能会进一步扩大

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以色列公共广播机构呢也报道

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该国正在为战争可能持续到4月初的情况

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做准备

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以色列官方嗯在周末的时候就爆料说

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他们和美国几周前就确定了袭击日期

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而计划早在两个月前就已经制定好了

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换句话说

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这段时间的谈判是假斩首

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墓地才是真的

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内塔尼亚胡称

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这次以色列将会全力以赴了哈

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不像过去打打就停掉

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这次要推翻伊朗现任政权

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这可不是靠几天的空袭就能够完成的目标

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伊朗方面呢则强化了防御姿态

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封闭了霍尔木兹海峡

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打击所有试图通过的船只呃

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所以那些航运股票估计都要飞天了

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另外还宣布正式启动分布式马赛克防御呃

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就是说

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把宜兰整个国家划分为30一个自主作战单元

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包括一个首都和30个省

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这是要化整为零

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打全面游击战了哈

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各个军阀各打各的

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双方的措辞都指向这场战争呢

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不会驶向委内瑞拉那种呃

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外科手术式的突袭

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而是长达一个月的拉锯战

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甚至是地面部队的介入

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这意味着房屋开支嗯

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通胀预期

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地缘溢价不会在一天内就完全消化的

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目前标普500指数

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维持在6800~6900点区间震荡

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就等于在赌未来四周内不会有更坏的消息了

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但是呢在霍尔木兹海峡封闭

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川普已经明示未来打击可能升级的情况之下

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没有哪一个基金经理赶在这个时候

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毫无保留的激进加仓

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所以今天的上涨哈

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本质上呢是对冲挤压与仓位回补共振

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俗称杀空头嘛

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以及这个月初有养老金

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等一系列被动资金的流入哈

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这并不代表说市场已经绝对安全

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波动率指数VIX跌到20附近之后

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就不再继续下跌了

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一旦VX止跌回升

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空投就会迅速重新聚集

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要持续压在20下方

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才说明市场真正卸下了短线繁育

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而目前呢大资金在期权市场依然保留了呃

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今年3月底的远期保护仓位

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就是有一大堆的那个put并没有完全策反

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这说明啊

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大机构对后续局势的演变仍保持着警惕

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在我看来

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这个中东战争对美国而言

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更像是一次剧烈的地缘政治冲击哈

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并非是系统性而崩盘的起点

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真正能够让美股市场失去支撑的

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往往是内部金融结构问题

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比如高利率环境下的信用风险

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如果信用体系出现了连锁反应

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指数的回撤深度呢才会显著放大外部冲击

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只有在内部脆弱的时候

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才会成为压垮市场的力量

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如果这种风险被市场重新定价

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那个时候

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指数的回撤就不会止步于6800点了

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呃所以现在美股有这个内部问题吗

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有私人信贷风险是吧

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最近一直被提起

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那为什么大资金现在不直接

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就借着这个战争风险撤退呢

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因为大机构撤退需要流动性

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需要对手盘

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而现在市场流动性本来就紧张了

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在中东嗯战争这么重大的不确定性之下

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若是直接砸盘的话

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只会把价格打穿哈

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自己也出不来

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所以呢更理性的方式就是先制造流动性呃

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今天大幅低开后的快速拉升

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就制造出了一种V型反转

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已经啊成功的市场预期

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是把吸引了更多短线资金与散户追涨

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同时呢迫使此前建立空头仓位的资金高位平仓

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回补

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空头的平仓买盘

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与这个短线追涨资金叠加

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就提供了一个更理想的流动性环境

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一旦呃这种杀空阶段完成

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大机构才会利用这个流动性窗口退出呃

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届时主动买盘若是无法持续的话

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那多投多多的就会明显的衰减

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指数就会又掉下来

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上方6950~7000点区间

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有大量的卖出

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看涨期权的机构在此重兵把守哈

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其次就是6900~6930点

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00:09:23,700 --> 00:09:26,139
一旦指数接近这些区间

218
00:09:26,139 --> 00:09:29,639
做市商就会这个地方进行猛烈的对冲抛售

219
00:09:29,639 --> 00:09:31,328
压制指数上行

220
00:09:31,328 --> 00:09:34,729
除非能够出现连续的超预期利好

221
00:09:34,729 --> 00:09:38,240
否则的话突破这个高位是很困难的

222
00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,820
贵金属今天表现的相对平近

223
00:09:40,820 --> 00:09:42,279
白银甚至还下跌了

224
00:09:42,279 --> 00:09:42,639
黄金

225
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:43,679
虽然一度冲高

226
00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,779
但是没有维持在日内高点

227
00:09:45,779 --> 00:09:48,080
能源市场反应更加直接

228
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,860
WTI原油期货跳涨超7%

229
00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:53,100
随着美伊冲突持续升级呢

230
00:09:55,899 --> 00:09:57,200
紧急停产了

231
00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,399
霍尔木兹海峡进入事实性关闭状态

232
00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:04,279
德银将霍尔木兹局势划分为三类情景

233
00:10:04,279 --> 00:10:06,639
如果能够在两周内就重开的话

234
00:10:06,639 --> 00:10:08,639
那油价将会重新回落

235
00:10:08,639 --> 00:10:12,710
对这个呃通胀预期也不会造成太大的伤害

236
00:10:12,710 --> 00:10:15,850
但是若是维持当前的模糊呃

237
00:10:15,850 --> 00:10:16,879
这个封锁哈

238
00:10:16,879 --> 00:10:19,159
油价呢将维持横盘波动

239
00:10:19,159 --> 00:10:22,799
而若是演变为大规模布雷的强制封锁

240
00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:24,669
就是伊朗在那个海域呃

241
00:10:24,669 --> 00:10:26,070
大面积的补水雷的话

242
00:10:26,070 --> 00:10:29,289
那就会导致欧佩克增产效果也失效

243
00:10:29,289 --> 00:10:31,440
油价会继续大幅飙升

244
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:33,360
那样子通胀预期就爆了

245
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,559
所以霍尔木兹海峡封锁市场

246
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,250
才是影响这个美股3月走势的核心变量啊

247
00:10:39,250 --> 00:10:41,990
今天才刚第一天开始而已

248
00:10:41,990 --> 00:10:44,059
后面还可能会变动

249
00:10:44,059 --> 00:10:47,139
欧洲天然气价格暴涨的比油价更厉害

250
00:10:47,139 --> 00:10:50,639
因为全球液化天然其前三大出口国之一

251
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:53,820
卡达尔能源公司宣布因为设施遭到袭击

252
00:10:53,820 --> 00:10:56,029
暂停停了液化天然气的生产

253
00:10:56,029 --> 00:10:57,470
卡塔尔的液化天然气

254
00:10:57,470 --> 00:11:00,509
几乎全部都是通过霍尔木兹海峡外运的

255
00:11:00,509 --> 00:11:03,480
占全球供应份额约20%

256
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,559
欧洲市场正在承受这个中东地缘政治紧张

257
00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:08,940
局势升级的冲击

258
00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:11,500
担忧事态发展可能会对地区稳定

259
00:11:11,500 --> 00:11:13,580
还有它的能源供应造成影响

260
00:11:13,580 --> 00:11:15,259
所以今天英国德国

261
00:11:15,259 --> 00:11:16,179
法国都急了

262
00:11:17,419 --> 00:11:21,818
称可能会对伊朗采取必要而且相称的防御行动

263
00:11:21,818 --> 00:11:23,438
以摧毁啊

264
00:11:23,438 --> 00:11:26,139
伊朗发射导弹和无人机的能力

265
00:11:26,139 --> 00:11:28,599
捍卫本国以及盟友的利益

266
00:11:28,599 --> 00:11:31,418
本来欧洲也不太想掺和这事情

267
00:11:31,418 --> 00:11:34,158
毕竟难民草第一个就是冲击欧洲

268
00:11:34,158 --> 00:11:35,839
但事态发展到这个地步哈

269
00:11:35,839 --> 00:11:39,708
他们几个国家也就呃贝贝尼诺的参与进来了

270
00:11:39,708 --> 00:11:41,969
所以呢生活在欧美的朋友们哈

271
00:11:41,969 --> 00:11:44,688
无论是在欧洲还是在北美

272
00:11:44,688 --> 00:11:47,379
都要小心想伊朗这个事情吧

273
00:11:50,919 --> 00:11:53,240
航空股今天集体走低

274
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,200
油价飙升

275
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,720
航线变动都推高了航空公司的燃油成本

276
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,200
盘中收窄的跌幅

277
00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,100
但是今天这个低点可能还不是真正的底部

278
00:12:05,100 --> 00:12:08,320
除非木兹海峡能够很快的解封

279
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,500
不然的话股价还要继续下探

280
00:12:10,500 --> 00:12:12,309
军工股今天普涨

281
00:12:12,309 --> 00:12:14,970
罗索尔BGMAN今年涨超6%

282
00:12:14,970 --> 00:12:17,610
洛克希德马丁呢股价涨超3%

283
00:12:17,610 --> 00:12:19,809
无人机概念股涨的也很多哈

284
00:12:19,809 --> 00:12:23,629
这次中东战争呢双方都出动了大量的无人机

285
00:12:23,629 --> 00:12:24,990
比特币今年大涨

286
00:12:24,990 --> 00:12:27,309
一度突破了7万美元关口

287
00:12:27,309 --> 00:12:29,950
不知道是中东王爷们买比特币避险呢

288
00:12:29,950 --> 00:12:33,039
还是注迪拜的那些东南亚灰茶们

289
00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:36,379
买入的帕兰提尔股价也涨了5.8%

290
00:12:36,379 --> 00:12:40,220
尽管川普上周不拉黑了on tpk

291
00:12:40,220 --> 00:12:44,480
但是美军这次让在对伊战争中使用了他的产品

292
00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:44,940
Cloud

293
00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:45,360
Cloud

294
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,360
是通过plan跳的AI平台

295
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,100
被五角大楼部署到机密平台上

296
00:12:50,100 --> 00:12:52,019
向军方提供服务的

297
00:12:52,019 --> 00:12:55,340
所以这个股价今天又一举造成了所有短期均线

298
00:12:55,340 --> 00:12:59,259
哈AES发电股价跳水跌超17%

299
00:12:59,259 --> 00:13:00,460
有媒体报道称

300
00:13:00,460 --> 00:13:03,919
由GIP和EQT领头的财团

301
00:13:03,919 --> 00:13:07,539
同意每股15美元现金来收购AES

302
00:13:07,539 --> 00:13:11,039
为什么这个收购价比上周五收盘价还低呢

303
00:13:11,039 --> 00:13:13,759
因为据说这公司负债很高哈

304
00:13:13,759 --> 00:13:15,158
那收购之后嗯

305
00:13:15,158 --> 00:13:19,120
肯定就是嗯这个收购方要承担这个债务嘛

306
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,279
做个股就是这种风险太大了

307
00:13:21,279 --> 00:13:22,480
又要看公司债务

308
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:23,519
又要看估值

309
00:13:23,519 --> 00:13:24,659
要看消息面

310
00:13:24,659 --> 00:13:25,879
还要基本面

311
00:13:25,879 --> 00:13:27,860
又要担心这个AI颠覆

312
00:13:27,860 --> 00:13:30,360
又要看整个行业周期变动

313
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,120
还是做大盘简单是吧

314
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,159
跌了就买小跌

315
00:13:33,159 --> 00:13:34,889
小买大跌大买个股

316
00:13:34,889 --> 00:13:35,570
要是被坑了

317
00:13:35,570 --> 00:13:37,250
真的是没处说理啊

318
00:13:37,250 --> 00:13:38,649
大盘暴跌的有

319
00:13:38,649 --> 00:13:42,230
国家托底医保公司ELV股价大跌

320
00:13:42,230 --> 00:13:46,700
美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心CMS

321
00:13:46,700 --> 00:13:48,700
冻结了该公司的医保优势

322
00:13:48,700 --> 00:13:51,299
处方药计划的新成员注册呃

323
00:13:53,750 --> 00:13:56,330
相关问题已经得到妥善的解决

324
00:13:56,330 --> 00:14:00,730
否则呢这个处罚将会在3月31号正式生效

325
00:14:00,730 --> 00:14:03,190
作为医疗保险行业的老二

326
00:14:03,190 --> 00:14:06,070
被视为防御股的这个医保股

327
00:14:06,070 --> 00:14:08,839
ELV都躲不掉这种黑天鹅的事件

328
00:14:08,839 --> 00:14:10,778
那你说个股还怎么做嘛

329
00:14:10,778 --> 00:14:14,399
整体来说市场心态并不是安全无忧哈

330
00:14:14,399 --> 00:14:17,568
而是在一个高位流动性博弈之中

331
00:14:17,568 --> 00:14:20,249
所以这个时候我们要减少杠杆操作

332
00:14:20,249 --> 00:14:22,769
更关注中长期的机会

333
00:14:22,769 --> 00:14:24,109
是更理性的策略

334
00:14:24,109 --> 00:14:26,580
什么短期呃期权啦

335
00:14:26,580 --> 00:14:27,820
末日期权啦

336
00:14:27,820 --> 00:14:28,919
二倍三倍啦

337
00:14:28,919 --> 00:14:30,860
大家还是要注意一些的哈

338
00:14:30,860 --> 00:14:33,460
这时候嗯不要贪就不亏钱

339
00:14:33,460 --> 00:14:35,500
能小赚就行了是吧行

340
00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:36,980
今天我们就说到这里

341
00:14:36,980 --> 00:14:38,779
那我们明天见拜拜

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