BV1ZSRYB8EBz · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,800 欢迎来到这一期的深度拆解 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,280 今天啊咱们要啃一块硬骨头 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,218 就在AI基础设施巨头CORE wave 4 00:00:11,218 --> 00:00:12,099 准备发布 5 00:00:12,099 --> 00:00:15,159 他2026年第一季度财报的节骨眼上 6 00:00:15,159 --> 00:00:17,978 这份报告毫不客气地给他泼了点冷水 7 00:00:17,978 --> 00:00:19,699 剖析的极其犀利 8 00:00:19,699 --> 00:00:21,660 如果你手里有这只大热股 9 00:00:21,660 --> 00:00:24,780 或者平时就爱琢磨AI算力这行的真实底色 10 00:00:24,780 --> 00:00:27,509 那咱们接下来的拆解你绝对得听一听 11 00:00:27,509 --> 00:00:27,969 好了 12 00:00:27,969 --> 00:00:28,708 废话不多说 13 00:00:28,708 --> 00:00:30,129 咱们直接进入正题 14 00:00:30,129 --> 00:00:32,149 咱们先抛个核心问题 15 00:00:32,149 --> 00:00:32,728 在这儿 16 00:00:32,728 --> 00:00:35,789 corn wave的股价这次发完财报之后 17 00:00:35,789 --> 00:00:38,229 还会像以前那样直接跳水吗 18 00:00:38,229 --> 00:00:42,030 大家都知道他是现在市场上最火的AI算力宠儿 19 00:00:42,030 --> 00:00:42,509 对吧 20 00:00:42,509 --> 00:00:46,149 但偏偏他每次发财报都跟坐过山车似的 21 00:00:46,149 --> 00:00:47,098 特别刺激 22 00:00:47,098 --> 00:00:48,459 你肯定会纳闷 23 00:00:48,459 --> 00:00:50,298 明明是一家站在风口上 24 00:00:50,298 --> 00:00:52,378 订单接到手发软的公司 25 00:00:52,378 --> 00:00:53,859 怎么每次一出财报 26 00:00:53,859 --> 00:00:56,340 大家反而都在疯狂抛售呢 27 00:00:59,759 --> 00:01:02,149 也是整份报告的灵魂所在 28 00:01:02,149 --> 00:01:04,209 在超高速增长模式下 29 00:01:04,209 --> 00:01:07,140 想要做到完美执行几乎是不可能的 30 00:01:07,140 --> 00:01:11,420 你想CORE weave现在正处在一种极其疯狂的扩张期 31 00:01:11,420 --> 00:01:12,000 对吧 32 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,120 在这种蒙眼狂奔的状态下 33 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,340 想要让财务数据和运营效率都无可挑剔 34 00:01:17,340 --> 00:01:18,700 按分析师的意思 35 00:01:18,700 --> 00:01:20,719 这根本是不可能完成的任务 36 00:01:20,719 --> 00:01:24,009 哪怕你是被全市场捧在手心里的AI宠儿 37 00:01:24,009 --> 00:01:25,948 落到现实的柴米油盐里 38 00:01:25,948 --> 00:01:30,129 也照样得面对那些庞大且极其沉重的财务压力 39 00:01:30,129 --> 00:01:30,810 好 40 00:01:30,810 --> 00:01:32,530 咱们先来看第一部分 41 00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:34,918 crow wave的预期悖论 42 00:01:34,918 --> 00:01:36,058 说到预期 43 00:01:36,058 --> 00:01:39,138 CORE wave这支股票有个特别怪的脾气 44 00:01:39,138 --> 00:01:42,509 他是完全靠情绪势能在跑的 45 00:01:42,509 --> 00:01:43,468 咱们仔细看 46 00:01:43,468 --> 00:01:45,978 在两次发财报的中间这段空档期 47 00:01:45,978 --> 00:01:47,799 只要他一发个新闻说唉 48 00:01:47,799 --> 00:01:50,358 我们又拿下了某某科技巨头的大单 49 00:01:50,358 --> 00:01:51,438 比如meta呀 50 00:01:51,438 --> 00:01:53,259 and so popic gia这种重磅合作 51 00:01:53,259 --> 00:01:55,359 就股价立马就原地起飞 52 00:01:55,359 --> 00:01:58,280 图上这些动不动20白钱甚至30白钱的飙升 53 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,209 真的就像打了鸡血一样 54 00:02:00,209 --> 00:02:02,230 这种铺天盖地的利好新闻 55 00:02:02,230 --> 00:02:05,420 简直把市场的情绪和胃口全给吊到了天上 56 00:02:05,420 --> 00:02:09,039 可是呢一旦到了真金白银交财报的日子 57 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:11,769 这现实简直就骨感的吓人了 58 00:02:11,769 --> 00:02:15,008 可以说非常完美的诠释了什么叫利好 59 00:02:15,008 --> 00:02:16,280 出尽即利空 60 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,219 不管前面吵得多热闹 61 00:02:18,219 --> 00:02:20,080 大家看看过去这三个季度 62 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:21,639 每次发完财报的一周 63 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,400 一妹这股票分别硬生生砸下去了 64 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,400 16percent到21percent 65 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:27,800 不是偶尔一次两次啊 66 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:28,259 朋友们 67 00:02:28,259 --> 00:02:31,979 这都已经形成一套非常规律的盘后跳水动作了 68 00:02:31,979 --> 00:02:34,219 所以问题到底出在哪儿 69 00:02:34,219 --> 00:02:36,939 就出在这个所谓的预期悖论上 70 00:02:36,939 --> 00:02:39,659 cor尔威夫讲的故事太有想象力 71 00:02:39,659 --> 00:02:40,979 太有未来感了 72 00:02:40,979 --> 00:02:43,800 这就导致那些还没到手的巨额合同 73 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,159 潜在的利润全都被市场提前给透支 74 00:02:47,159 --> 00:02:50,180 一股脑儿全算进现在的股价里了 75 00:02:50,180 --> 00:02:51,099 结果就是 76 00:02:51,099 --> 00:02:54,000 等到公司真的坐下来给你交底牌的时候 77 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,620 哪怕其实教出来的业姐还凑合 78 00:02:56,620 --> 00:02:58,479 但只要有一丁点瑕疵 79 00:02:58,479 --> 00:03:01,819 就根本满足不了那些被吊高了胃口的投资者 80 00:03:01,819 --> 00:03:02,800 期望越高 81 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:03,639 摔得越惨 82 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,460 一盆冷水浇下来也就是必然的事儿了 83 00:03:06,460 --> 00:03:08,919 接着咱们进入第二部分 84 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:10,199 营收狂飙 85 00:03:10,199 --> 00:03:11,639 利润挤压 86 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,829 那么市场到底在失望些什么 87 00:03:14,829 --> 00:03:17,929 硬核财务数据直接给了我们一记重锤 88 00:03:17,929 --> 00:03:21,409 一边呢看起来这顶线增长简直无敌了 89 00:03:21,409 --> 00:03:24,810 COWIFT手里攥着高达668亿美元的金人 90 00:03:24,810 --> 00:03:26,490 未完成订单营收 91 00:03:26,490 --> 00:03:28,330 划出了一条完美的抛物线 92 00:03:28,330 --> 00:03:29,579 直接冲天 93 00:03:29,579 --> 00:03:30,699 但是另一边 94 00:03:30,699 --> 00:03:34,000 他的底线数据可以说是在泥潭里苦苦挣扎 95 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,639 那个经调整后的息税前利润率真的是惨不忍睹 96 00:03:37,639 --> 00:03:38,919 面临巨大压力 97 00:03:38,919 --> 00:03:40,539 远远没达到预期 98 00:03:40,539 --> 00:03:42,419 而且你再看他的每股收益 99 00:03:42,419 --> 00:03:45,759 也就是EPS长期都在负值区徘徊 100 00:03:45,759 --> 00:03:47,340 这就非常现实了 101 00:03:47,340 --> 00:03:49,699 能接到满天飞的订单是一码事 102 00:03:49,699 --> 00:03:52,000 这钱到底能不能落到自己口袋里 103 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,460 绝对是另一码事 104 00:03:53,460 --> 00:03:55,460 咱们来看第三部分 105 00:03:55,460 --> 00:03:58,338 规模化带来的庞大成本 106 00:03:58,338 --> 00:04:02,120 把公司利润榨干的罪魁祸首到底是谁 107 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,080 其实就是去实打实 108 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,240 建设这些AI基础设施的恐怖成本 109 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:08,439 我给你们报个数字 110 00:04:08,439 --> 00:04:09,909 大家做好心理准备啊 111 00:04:09,909 --> 00:04:11,590 伯恩施坦估算了一下 112 00:04:11,590 --> 00:04:14,259 call wa在2026年的资本支出 113 00:04:14,259 --> 00:04:16,879 大概会冲到300亿到350亿美元 114 00:04:16,879 --> 00:04:18,350 这么一个天文数字 115 00:04:18,350 --> 00:04:19,769 大家体会一下这个概念 116 00:04:19,769 --> 00:04:21,750 这比他们2025年的投资额 117 00:04:21,750 --> 00:04:23,288 直接翻了一倍还多 118 00:04:23,288 --> 00:04:25,569 去建那些庞大的GPU集群 119 00:04:25,569 --> 00:04:27,728 那烧钱的速度说是碎钞机 120 00:04:27,728 --> 00:04:29,180 真的是一点都不夸张 121 00:04:29,180 --> 00:04:31,379 咱们可以把这事儿掰开揉碎了 122 00:04:31,379 --> 00:04:35,288 看这种为了跑马圈地而搞出来的疯狂扩张 123 00:04:35,288 --> 00:04:38,889 是怎么让他在刚过去的2025年第四季度 124 00:04:38,889 --> 00:04:41,050 结结实实摔了个大跟头的 125 00:04:41,050 --> 00:04:43,829 首先运营利润率本身就软绵绵的 126 00:04:43,829 --> 00:04:46,509 其次你得不断借钱去夸张对吧 127 00:04:46,509 --> 00:04:48,310 光是一个季度的利息支出 128 00:04:48,310 --> 00:04:50,379 就飙到了3.88亿美元 129 00:04:50,379 --> 00:04:52,420 再叠加咱们刚刚提过的那种 130 00:04:52,420 --> 00:04:54,019 压倒性的资本支出需求 131 00:04:54,019 --> 00:04:56,259 最后公司自己还扭扭捏捏的 132 00:04:56,259 --> 00:04:58,850 给了一个挺疲软的未来营收预期 133 00:04:58,850 --> 00:05:01,410 你把这些负面Buff全叠加在一起 134 00:05:01,410 --> 00:05:04,379 砰一场完美的风暴就这么诞生了 135 00:05:04,379 --> 00:05:06,519 接下来是第四部分 136 00:05:06,519 --> 00:05:10,658 迫在眉睫的超大规模云服务商威胁 137 00:05:10,658 --> 00:05:14,019 咱们先把目光从眼前的这个财报周期挪开 138 00:05:14,019 --> 00:05:17,600 往远点看看看长期的结构性隐患 139 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,000 我们不同意CORE wave现有的软件护城河 140 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,939 能够抵御超大规模云服务商的攻击 141 00:05:27,019 --> 00:05:29,160 这就是明晃晃的质疑了 142 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:29,939 大家想 143 00:05:29,939 --> 00:05:33,009 CORE wave现在凭什么能抢到这么多肥肉 144 00:05:33,009 --> 00:05:35,129 很大程度上是因为像微软 145 00:05:35,129 --> 00:05:38,230 谷歌那些科技巨头自己手里的算力 146 00:05:38,230 --> 00:05:39,730 暂时供给不上 147 00:05:41,250 --> 00:05:45,350 CORE wave吹捧的那个什么软件护城河根本就不牢靠 148 00:05:45,350 --> 00:05:46,189 等过几年 149 00:05:46,189 --> 00:05:48,970 这些巨头们自己的数据中心咔咔建好了 150 00:05:48,970 --> 00:05:50,149 算力跟上来了 151 00:05:50,149 --> 00:05:52,269 cor威尔面临的绝对是一场 152 00:05:52,269 --> 00:05:54,459 极其细心的贴身肉搏 153 00:05:54,459 --> 00:05:58,220 就是因为头顶上悬着这么一把达摩克里斯之剑 154 00:06:01,970 --> 00:06:04,350 市面上的算力没那么紧缺了 155 00:06:04,350 --> 00:06:08,329 CORE weave再想轻轻松松签下那种超级长期大单 156 00:06:08,329 --> 00:06:09,829 可就难于登天了 157 00:06:09,829 --> 00:06:11,490 所以他们给出的结论是 158 00:06:11,490 --> 00:06:13,990 COVIVE在2028年的实际营收 159 00:06:13,990 --> 00:06:16,629 可能会比现在大家盲目乐观的预期 160 00:06:16,629 --> 00:06:18,990 硬生生少掉15盘左右 161 00:06:18,990 --> 00:06:19,889 也就是说 162 00:06:19,889 --> 00:06:22,550 这几年大家津津乐道的征展神话 163 00:06:22,550 --> 00:06:26,370 未来大概率是要踩一脚重刹车了好了 164 00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:29,410 最后一部分历史会重演吗 165 00:06:29,410 --> 00:06:32,329 那么说回这周四马上要发的财报 166 00:06:32,329 --> 00:06:35,158 咱们普通看客该盯着点儿什么呢 167 00:06:35,158 --> 00:06:38,119 咱们看目前的数据揭示的这个集中度 168 00:06:38,119 --> 00:06:40,259 风险真的是高的吓人 169 00:06:40,259 --> 00:06:44,600 你看看他的命脉基本就钻在那么几个大厂手里 170 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,209 光微软一家就吃掉了近40person的订单 171 00:06:48,209 --> 00:06:50,149 再把英伟达和meta算上 172 00:06:50,149 --> 00:06:50,769 好家伙 173 00:06:50,769 --> 00:06:53,810 这三家直接占了他们八成以上的业务量 174 00:06:53,810 --> 00:06:55,060 这说明啥 175 00:06:55,060 --> 00:06:57,540 说明以后只要这几家大业里面 176 00:06:57,540 --> 00:07:00,860 随便哪一个稍微缩减一下资本支出计划 177 00:07:00,860 --> 00:07:03,439 或者决定把算力搬回自家的机房 178 00:07:03,439 --> 00:07:07,250 那对CORE wave来说绝对就是一场海啸级别的打击 179 00:07:07,250 --> 00:07:10,310 把咱们刚才聊的这些逻辑全都串起来 180 00:07:10,310 --> 00:07:13,110 那些早就被透支的干干净净的预期 181 00:07:13,110 --> 00:07:15,399 被死死挤压的利润空间 182 00:07:15,399 --> 00:07:17,160 深不见底的烧钱黑洞 183 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:17,879 还有未来 184 00:07:17,879 --> 00:07:19,699 虎视眈眈的科技巨头 185 00:07:22,439 --> 00:07:25,079 维持对CORE wf跑输大盘的评级 186 00:07:25,079 --> 00:07:27,829 而且给出的目标价只有67美元 187 00:07:27,829 --> 00:07:31,209 这其实是一份非常客观的数据分析报告 188 00:07:31,209 --> 00:07:33,379 但潜台词已经十分明显 189 00:07:33,379 --> 00:07:35,540 比起现在高高在上的股价 190 00:07:35,540 --> 00:07:39,069 这支股票未来的下行空间确实不容小觑 191 00:07:39,069 --> 00:07:40,029 到了尾声 192 00:07:40,029 --> 00:07:42,790 我想留个很有意思的问题给大家琢磨琢磨 193 00:07:42,790 --> 00:07:43,769 没人否认 194 00:07:43,769 --> 00:07:46,110 CORREF现在正踩在风口上飞 195 00:07:46,110 --> 00:07:47,009 他的营收 196 00:07:47,009 --> 00:07:49,100 他的订单量跑的那叫一个猛 197 00:07:49,100 --> 00:07:52,100 但是他肩上扛着的那些天价账单 198 00:07:52,100 --> 00:07:55,120 还有未来几年铁定逃不掉的巨头绞杀战 199 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:56,060 谁也不敢装瞎 200 00:07:56,060 --> 00:07:57,139 看不见对吧 201 00:07:57,139 --> 00:07:59,509 所以核心灵魂拷问来了 202 00:07:59,509 --> 00:08:02,529 这场AI金世叔缠妇之处的大繁荣 203 00:08:02,529 --> 00:08:03,829 到底能不能跑赢 204 00:08:03,829 --> 00:08:06,220 他背后那个极其恐怖的烧钱速度呢 205 00:08:06,220 --> 00:08:09,139 这周四的这份财报说不定就能给我们透个底啊 206 00:08:09,139 --> 00:08:09,800 好了 207 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:11,800 感谢大家收听这期的深度拆解 208 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,180 咱们下期再见
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