BV1ZR96BLEva · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,290 欢迎大家来到这期的深度解析 2 00:00:02,290 --> 00:00:04,230 今天咱们要啃一块硬骨头 3 00:00:04,230 --> 00:00:07,009 带大家一层层拆解阳光电源 4 00:00:07,009 --> 00:00:10,689 2026年第一季度这份相当复杂的财报 5 00:00:10,689 --> 00:00:11,630 不仅如此啊 6 00:00:11,630 --> 00:00:14,410 咱们还要聊聊在他未来的发展路线上 7 00:00:14,410 --> 00:00:16,980 一个大家绝对想不到的技术大拐点 8 00:00:16,980 --> 00:00:17,500 好了 9 00:00:17,500 --> 00:00:18,280 废话不多说 10 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:19,559 咱们直接进入正题 11 00:00:19,559 --> 00:00:21,179 看看这家行业巨头 12 00:00:21,179 --> 00:00:24,030 在眼下这个逆风区里是怎么打的 13 00:00:24,030 --> 00:00:25,050 财报一出 14 00:00:25,050 --> 00:00:28,949 这个数字说实话直接把市场给看懵了 15 00:00:28,949 --> 00:00:33,170 第一季度净利润同比暴跌整整40倍 16 00:00:33,170 --> 00:00:34,329 大家要知道啊 17 00:00:34,329 --> 00:00:37,490 对于一家风头正劲的新能源龙头来说 18 00:00:37,490 --> 00:00:40,210 这个开局真的是相当震撼 19 00:00:40,210 --> 00:00:42,409 那么究竟发生了什么 20 00:00:42,409 --> 00:00:46,670 这-40倍的背后基本面到底出了什么状况 21 00:00:46,670 --> 00:00:49,850 这就是咱们今天要彻底盘明白的事儿 22 00:00:49,850 --> 00:00:52,109 今天的解析主要分五步走 23 00:00:52,109 --> 00:00:54,869 第一一季度业绩艰难开局 24 00:00:54,869 --> 00:00:58,250 第二逆变器或EPC业务的衰退 25 00:00:58,250 --> 00:01:01,590 第三储能业务面临的利润率挤压 26 00:01:01,590 --> 00:01:04,939 第4AI数据中心带来的意外转机 27 00:01:04,939 --> 00:01:08,180 最后呢咱们看看高盛给出的最终评级 28 00:01:08,180 --> 00:01:10,640 也就是维持中性好的 29 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,239 咱们先来看第一部分 30 00:01:12,239 --> 00:01:14,500 一季度业绩的艰难开局 31 00:01:14,500 --> 00:01:18,400 以及现实和预期之间巨大的落差 32 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,120 大家看这组数据 33 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,980 现实和华尔街的预期真的是差了一大截 34 00:01:23,980 --> 00:01:26,519 营业收入155.6亿元 35 00:01:26,519 --> 00:01:28,980 这比高盛的预期低了整整25 36 00:01:28,980 --> 00:01:29,590 Percent 37 00:01:29,590 --> 00:01:31,670 毛利润51.76亿 38 00:01:31,670 --> 00:01:33,150 也低了12percent 39 00:01:33,150 --> 00:01:35,250 再看最核心的净利润 40 00:01:35,250 --> 00:01:36,489 22.91亿 41 00:01:36,489 --> 00:01:39,469 比预测值硬生生低了24percent 42 00:01:39,469 --> 00:01:42,549 可以说各项关键指标全面不及预期 43 00:01:42,549 --> 00:01:45,459 这是一个相当明确的红色警报了 44 00:01:45,459 --> 00:01:48,359 那到底是什么把业绩拉垮了呢 45 00:01:48,359 --> 00:01:50,659 管理层和高盛的分析师 46 00:01:50,659 --> 00:01:53,159 基本锁定了四大逆风因素 47 00:01:53,159 --> 00:01:56,000 第一太阳能行业整体不景气 48 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,560 直接把逆变器业务给带偏了 49 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,700 第二美国那边的订单一直在往后延 50 00:02:01,700 --> 00:02:05,319 再加上去年同期有一个沙客的储能大单垫底 51 00:02:05,319 --> 00:02:06,939 导致基数特别高 52 00:02:06,939 --> 00:02:09,349 第三全球卷得太厉害 53 00:02:09,349 --> 00:02:10,990 加上碳酸锂成为上涨 54 00:02:10,990 --> 00:02:13,270 把储能的利润率给压下来了 55 00:02:13,270 --> 00:02:15,139 最后还有汇率问题 56 00:02:15,139 --> 00:02:16,060 人民币升值 57 00:02:16,060 --> 00:02:18,930 直接一口气抹掉了超过四个亿的利润 58 00:02:18,930 --> 00:02:20,830 接下来进入第二部分 59 00:02:20,830 --> 00:02:23,870 聊聊逆变器和EPC业务的衰退 60 00:02:23,870 --> 00:02:28,129 看看传统核心盘正在经历怎样的阵痛 61 00:02:28,129 --> 00:02:30,050 其实在这份财报里 62 00:02:30,050 --> 00:02:32,430 管理层的一句话非常刺耳 63 00:02:32,430 --> 00:02:34,180 但也极其坦诚 64 00:02:34,180 --> 00:02:36,020 他们原话是这么说的 65 00:02:36,020 --> 00:02:37,259 未来几年内 66 00:02:37,259 --> 00:02:40,280 不要指望全球太阳能需求的增长 67 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,509 会出现任何有意义的反弹 68 00:02:42,509 --> 00:02:45,569 你看这可不是哪位分析师在那瞎猜 69 00:02:45,569 --> 00:02:47,129 这是在市场最前线 70 00:02:47,129 --> 00:02:49,949 打仗的指挥官给出的冷酷判断 71 00:02:49,949 --> 00:02:52,289 这种不加掩饰的现实主义 72 00:02:52,289 --> 00:02:54,520 咱们真的得好好掂量掂量 73 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:56,960 结合高盛的核心数据 74 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:01,090 咱们就能明白为什么报告的基调这么悲观了 75 00:03:01,090 --> 00:03:04,789 一季度逆变器销售额同比掉了15% 76 00:03:04,789 --> 00:03:07,129 而EPC业务更是夸张 77 00:03:07,129 --> 00:03:08,889 直接暴跌了大约40 78 00:03:08,889 --> 00:03:09,500 Percent 79 00:03:09,500 --> 00:03:10,400 老实说 80 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,300 面对这种核心业务大幅收缩的局面 81 00:03:13,300 --> 00:03:16,460 分析师们除了狂砍短期增长预期 82 00:03:16,460 --> 00:03:18,090 真的没别的选择 83 00:03:18,090 --> 00:03:21,379 传统业务的引擎确实是失速了 84 00:03:21,379 --> 00:03:22,759 那么第三部分 85 00:03:22,759 --> 00:03:25,000 咱们转移到储能业务上 86 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,659 看看这个爆发式增长的赛道背后 87 00:03:27,659 --> 00:03:30,879 利润率是怎么被双面挤压的 88 00:03:30,879 --> 00:03:32,539 储能这块业务啊 89 00:03:32,539 --> 00:03:34,840 现在的情况特别微妙 90 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,120 短期看呢有个好消息 91 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,530 一季度的毛利率环比回血了六个百分点 92 00:03:40,530 --> 00:03:44,280 主要因为海外那些利润高点的订单占上风了 93 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,139 但这只是表面现象 94 00:03:46,139 --> 00:03:47,099 往长远看 95 00:03:47,099 --> 00:03:49,629 同比利润率依然处于下滑通道 96 00:03:49,629 --> 00:03:51,229 管理层也说得很直白 97 00:03:51,229 --> 00:03:53,289 因为市场竞争越来越激烈 98 00:03:53,289 --> 00:03:55,009 碳酸锂成本也在涨 99 00:03:55,009 --> 00:03:57,650 以前那种轻轻松松冲上40趴 100 00:03:57,650 --> 00:04:00,879 高毛利的好日子基本是一去不复返了 101 00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:03,639 面对这种全行业的利润缩水 102 00:04:03,639 --> 00:04:06,620 阳光电源肯定不能坐以待毙对吧 103 00:04:06,620 --> 00:04:08,539 他们打出了一套组合拳 104 00:04:08,539 --> 00:04:10,878 首先宁可少赚点 105 00:04:10,878 --> 00:04:12,758 也要死磕商业信誉 106 00:04:12,758 --> 00:04:14,719 把以前的旧合同履行完 107 00:04:14,719 --> 00:04:19,019 其次对于新单子马上启动价格传导机制 108 00:04:19,019 --> 00:04:21,129 把成本压力分摊出去 109 00:04:21,129 --> 00:04:22,350 更关键的是 110 00:04:22,350 --> 00:04:25,529 他们正在用构网型和离网解决方案 111 00:04:25,529 --> 00:04:27,908 这种硬核技术死死守住 112 00:04:27,908 --> 00:04:30,970 比同行勾出5~10趴的品牌溢价 113 00:04:30,970 --> 00:04:33,509 说白了不打单纯的价格战 114 00:04:33,509 --> 00:04:34,910 咱们打价值战 115 00:04:34,910 --> 00:04:36,050 有意思的是 116 00:04:36,050 --> 00:04:38,459 虽然利润率被压得喘不过气 117 00:04:38,459 --> 00:04:41,779 但管理层对销量的态度却极其强硬 118 00:04:41,779 --> 00:04:42,899 依然死咬着 119 00:04:42,899 --> 00:04:46,550 2026年出货量超过60G瓦特的目标不放 120 00:04:46,550 --> 00:04:50,310 而且考虑到欧洲那边可能会在制造端卡脖子 121 00:04:50,310 --> 00:04:53,529 他们直接甩出了一个非常硬核的解法 122 00:04:53,529 --> 00:04:55,509 直接在波兰建个新厂 123 00:04:55,509 --> 00:04:57,389 用本地化生产去硬刚 124 00:04:57,389 --> 00:05:01,029 地缘政治的封建也是够果断的好了 125 00:05:01,029 --> 00:05:02,408 重点来了 126 00:05:02,408 --> 00:05:03,329 第四部分 127 00:05:03,329 --> 00:05:06,730 我们要揭晓一个绝对意想不到的变局 128 00:05:06,730 --> 00:05:10,689 那就是AI数据中心带来的技术转机 129 00:05:10,689 --> 00:05:13,350 阳光能源未来的真正想象空间 130 00:05:13,350 --> 00:05:15,110 其实藏在这个地方 131 00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:17,009 大家都在狂炒人工智能 132 00:05:17,009 --> 00:05:20,300 但别忘了AI的尽头其实是电力 133 00:05:20,300 --> 00:05:22,180 传统数据中心断电了 134 00:05:22,180 --> 00:05:24,019 备用电池撑个五到10分钟 135 00:05:24,019 --> 00:05:26,000 等柴油发电机启动就行了 136 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,240 但AI可完全不一样 137 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,579 AI那种极端的负载波动 138 00:05:30,579 --> 00:05:31,180 要求 139 00:05:31,180 --> 00:05:34,720 电力系统必须得有1~4个小时的大容量 140 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,079 持续储能能力 141 00:05:36,079 --> 00:05:38,519 这一下子就凭空砸出来 142 00:05:38,519 --> 00:05:41,230 一个海量的高端储能需求 143 00:05:41,230 --> 00:05:44,329 那为什么这个需求会突然大爆发呢 144 00:05:44,329 --> 00:05:48,360 核心痛点在于美国拉跨的电网基础设施 145 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,759 你想想现在一个大型项目想并网得排队 146 00:05:51,759 --> 00:05:53,040 等上四到5年 147 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,379 那些搞AI的科技巨头哪等得起这个时间啊 148 00:05:56,379 --> 00:05:58,399 唯一的办法就是自己动手 149 00:05:58,399 --> 00:06:00,279 建那种能够自平衡的微电网 150 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,759 而这种微电网简直就是给阳光电源的高端交流 151 00:06:03,759 --> 00:06:06,819 池能系统量身定做的完美舞台 152 00:06:06,819 --> 00:06:10,740 咱们来看看这份相当激进的商业化时间表 153 00:06:10,740 --> 00:06:12,500 预计在2026年底 154 00:06:12,500 --> 00:06:15,040 首代产品就要开启试运行了 155 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,408 2027年就会步入初步量产阶段 156 00:06:18,408 --> 00:06:19,829 等到了2030年 157 00:06:19,829 --> 00:06:23,309 单单是AI数据中心这一块的储能需求 158 00:06:23,309 --> 00:06:27,009 预计就能飙升到惊人的50级高瓦时 159 00:06:27,009 --> 00:06:28,129 这什么概念 160 00:06:28,129 --> 00:06:32,129 这几乎相当于重新再造一个现在的阳光电源 161 00:06:32,129 --> 00:06:33,269 储能盘子啊 162 00:06:33,269 --> 00:06:37,029 那么在看完了这么庞大的愿景之后 163 00:06:37,029 --> 00:06:38,629 咱们回到现实 164 00:06:38,629 --> 00:06:39,810 第五部分 165 00:06:39,810 --> 00:06:43,038 高盛的最终裁决维持中性 166 00:06:43,038 --> 00:06:47,589 虽然高盛也很认可AI带来的这个长期大饼 167 00:06:47,589 --> 00:06:50,850 但分析师毕竟是讲究现实的 168 00:06:50,850 --> 00:06:54,240 因为眼下光速业务实打实的在萎缩 169 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,480 储能利润率长期看跌 170 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,089 还有内地实打实的汇兑损失 171 00:06:59,089 --> 00:07:01,629 高盛非常冷静地把阳光电源 172 00:07:01,629 --> 00:07:04,470 2026~2030年的净利润预测 173 00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:06,649 平均往下砍了19盆三 174 00:07:06,649 --> 00:07:08,009 在资本的眼里 175 00:07:08,009 --> 00:07:12,089 眼前的阵痛暂时还是压过了远期的技术红利 176 00:07:12,089 --> 00:07:13,670 咱们看这张图表 177 00:07:13,670 --> 00:07:18,038 他清晰地记录了分析师预期不断调整的轨迹 178 00:07:18,038 --> 00:07:21,439 现在高盛已经把估值基础挪到了 179 00:07:21,439 --> 00:07:23,199 2027年去算 180 00:07:23,199 --> 00:07:26,680 这也反映出在当下这个光伏寒冬里 181 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,319 机构正在努力重新寻找一个 182 00:07:29,319 --> 00:07:31,310 相对稳妥的估值锚点 183 00:07:31,310 --> 00:07:32,930 最终的结果就是 184 00:07:32,930 --> 00:07:36,410 高盛给出了最新的12个月目标价 185 00:07:36,410 --> 00:07:38,649 135元人民币 186 00:07:38,649 --> 00:07:41,790 相比之前的150元有所下调 187 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:45,069 所以目前的评级就是维持中性 188 00:07:45,069 --> 00:07:46,889 其实意思很直白 189 00:07:46,889 --> 00:07:50,490 在短期逆风和长期的大愿景之间 190 00:07:50,490 --> 00:07:54,509 他们认为眼下的风险和收益基本算扯平了 191 00:07:54,509 --> 00:07:56,560 先观望再说好了 192 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,959 今天的深度解析就到这了 193 00:07:58,959 --> 00:08:02,379 看完这份槽点和爆点并存的财报 194 00:08:02,379 --> 00:08:04,750 咱们面前摆着一局大棋 195 00:08:04,750 --> 00:08:07,529 一边是深陷泥潭的传统光伏 196 00:08:07,529 --> 00:08:09,769 和越来越卷的储能利刃 197 00:08:09,769 --> 00:08:12,610 另一边是被电网逼出来的AI算力 198 00:08:12,610 --> 00:08:14,100 微电网大爆发 199 00:08:14,100 --> 00:08:15,759 那么留给大家的问题是 200 00:08:15,759 --> 00:08:19,779 你觉得阳光电源压住的这条AI生命线跑得赢 201 00:08:19,779 --> 00:08:22,288 眼下这场漫长的光伏寒冬吗 202 00:08:22,288 --> 00:08:25,889 这绝对是一场价值千金的终极赛跑 203 00:08:25,889 --> 00:08:27,228 感谢大家的陪伴 204 00:08:27,228 --> 00:08:29,180 咱们下期解释再见
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