想赚大钱避免返贫

1
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我觉得任何人在学投资和创业之前啊

2
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首先你不要想你怎么样财务自由

3
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买豪车买豪宅

4
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你首先要做的是看看怎么样避免亏钱

5
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特别是这两年呢投资风格特别的夸张

6
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夸张到什么程度啊

7
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大家看一下AI带来了多少人的癫狂啊

8
00:00:23,750 --> 00:00:26,850
就这几天收多了很多啊

9
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有可能买了这个海力士两倍做多的哈

10
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或者买了存储的指数三倍做多的半导体

11
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三倍多多的很多人

12
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那就培养他成功的经验啊

13
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认为自己呢通过认真研究啊

14
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终于呢找到了方法

15
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然后通过三贝多多啊

16
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涨了几倍几倍

17
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哎呀这些事情大家看看就行了

18
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如果说你一个投资了十几20年的人

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买了300多多

20
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赚了几百万

21
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这个时候你要考虑的是怎么样避免风险

22
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而不是复制你的经验

23
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你去想吧

24
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如果你是对的

25
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你怎么可能投资十几年才拥有几百万呢

26
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那如果你是错的哈哈

27
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那最好呢你不要重复把之前赚的钱再亏回去

28
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其实大部分买三倍多多的

29
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肯定也会在三倍做空上亏过钱

30
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这个逻辑很简单的道理啊

31
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就是任何加杠杆的东西

32
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它都有一个巨大的损耗

33
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就是在顺风的时候好像看起来很美好

34
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但是最怕逆风

35
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但你别忘了啊

36
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这个市场什么时候顺丰呢

37
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就是现在啊大家呢找不到赚钱的路子

38
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都想在AI上搏一搏

39
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这个时候大家感觉是顺风

40
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实际上经济差到什么程度

41
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其实大家很多人在国内体感是生意很差

42
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各位美国的生意也很差

43
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低端的几乎是没人了

44
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不是大家有没有听过一句谚语啊

45
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就是就是大河不满小和干啊

46
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小核不满大和干

47
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逻辑是一样的啊

48
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主要是小核不满大和一定干

49
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就是这个社会

50
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它经济它来自于这种方方面面的毛细血管

51
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如果毛细血管没水了

52
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没血了

53
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主动脉一定早晚会失血的

54
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所以实际上消费对经济的影响远远比AI大

55
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多没有AI这个人正常生活

56
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但是没有了消费

57
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这个社会就崩了

58
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所以你AI做的再好

59
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你还是为了消费

60
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还是让他经济景气

61
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AI本质上他没有创造任何新东西

62
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它只是提高了效率

63
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像现在我也是一样的哈

64
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我也用AI

65
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是我

66
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我基本上靠codex cloud我都用啊

67
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非常非常体验

68
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非常非常好

69
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但是呢我个人感觉好的结果是什么呢

70
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就是让我更一步进一步说老百姓日子会更难过

71
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因为他不用招人了对吧

72
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你比如说以前我还需要助理

73
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我现在助理都不用了

74
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自己又回复了

75
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那你我问你

76
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你这么发展下去带来什么结果呢

77
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就是失业率会进一步提升

78
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所以这就是必然的结果

79
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那你想想

80
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如果失业率越来越高

81
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你能靠AI能能挡

82
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能顶饭吃吗

83
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肯定不行的

84
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所以目前呢还没有找到一个

85
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零和博弈之外的出路

86
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所以AI本质上它也是个零和博弈

87
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他会让那些用AI人

88
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把那些不会用AI的人全部替代掉

89
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那些发明AI人

90
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然后呢在AI上创新的人把所有的钱全部赚走

91
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但是问题是这个东西有多少能持续性呢

92
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因为你你不论硅基多牛逼

93
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你还赚了太低的钱

94
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这就是核心

95
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所以呢你与其去搞什么三贝多多

96
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站在这些光里

97
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你还不如思考一下你赚的钱啊

98
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怎么样

99
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别吐回去

100
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你看我分析了一下中国这些富豪啊

101
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历年啊

102
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我们从后往前说啊

103
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找都不用讲嘛

104
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中国的首富目前能见代的都没几个了

105
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然后咱们首先讲这个第一任草木齐宗

106
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锒铛入狱了啊

107
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信用卡诈骗啊

108
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再往后呢就是这些家电的哈

109
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然后国美苏宁啊

110
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到现在基本上都是归零了是吧

111
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再看往后地产的啊

112
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碧桂园是不是也归零了

113
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郎铛入狱了啊

114
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再往后你看看这个我们身边做电商的

115
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济南的韩都衣舍哈

116
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老赵我还很俗

117
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曾经身价啊

118
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销售额几十个亿

119
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年利润大几个亿哈

120
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上市的话是50个亿是吧

121
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你再看看韩后啊

122
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韩后的话也是号称当年上市大几十个亿

123
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实际上这还是一些典型的啊

124
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这是出名的

125
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那不出名的更是数不胜数对吧

126
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那接下来这多了都是牛毛啊

127
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我从2010年做电商

128
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到今天为止

129
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我身边的人不透机的很少

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我算是为数不多的能够全身而退的啊

131
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当然了

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这个原因在于说我是一个乐观的悲观主义者

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就我对这个啊周围的人非常悲观

134
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但我对自己很乐观啊

135
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我因为对他们悲观

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所以我知道他们哪些点一定是错的

137
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所以我逃避了很多灾难啊

138
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无论是当时中概打一折是吧

139
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还是国内生意腰斩啊

140
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还是各种应收款收不回来

141
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还是当时2019年疫情开始

142
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我一看形势不妙

143
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抓紧暂停谈项目

144
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在疫情解放的时候

145
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22年的时候

146
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我把我的所有的不赚钱的业务

147
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人海战术信息我全砍完了

148
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从四五百个人干到了三四十个人

149
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四五十个人

150
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原因是什么呢

151
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因为我非常不乐观

152
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我那时候我在雪球上写文章

153
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我就讲我说底层人的日子会非常非常难过的

154
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电商人的日子会越来越难过的

155
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小生意人的日子会超级难过

156
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我那时候就讲

157
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我说所有的人都会为高负债买单

158
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因为那个时候我就发现一个问题啊

159
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我每天爬山

160
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然后呢走路去公司

161
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我每次从我家走了一公车路上

162
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我就看那高楼大厦啊

163
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就是济南的CBA

164
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那高楼大厦

165
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我当时在想

166
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我最后这些高楼大厦谁来买单呢

167
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那花了几千亿啊

168
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盖这么多楼

169
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但是那些企业赚钱的可能连10%都不到

170
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大部分企的举动违建连这个房租都交不起

171
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因为我们当时买的时候从1万4哈

172
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现在能跌到八千九千

173
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我不知道了哈

174
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那房租呢从两块五掉到一块四

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一块五我也没问了

176
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但是我知道的事肯定会越来越差的

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我当时预言

178
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我说将来有一天有可能啊

179
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这个60年代10年代的人一旦啊去世了

180
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后面可能连打扫卫生的都找不到

181
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就像像我这样爬的那些路啊

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最后面的话可能连那野草都没人收割了

183
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很简单道理

184
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那九零后零零后不愿意干这个活吗

185
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他宁愿躺着在家里躺着

186
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啥也不干

187
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不吃不喝

188
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他也不去干那些活

189
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所以我当时很悲观的认为

190
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说最后呢可能这么大的CBD啊

191
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有可能变成鬼城

192
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然后那些没有能力的人呢

193
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最后呢可能就真的加躺平了

194
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反正无所谓了吧

195
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因为我觉得创造价值的人太少了

196
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就是我推了几个结论啊

197
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比如说一家公司是吧

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这个公司里面的创造价值的人占1%哈

199
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但是呢管理的10%哈

200
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80%的人没有能力

201
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我这算下来只有1%人创造价值

202
00:06:52,769 --> 00:06:53,928
他能养活多少人呢

203
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结果当时好

204
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我靠我猛痛猛打啊

205
00:06:56,788 --> 00:06:57,899
养400个人

206
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后面的话我只能养40个人

207
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现在40个人在AI面前能说成十个人

208
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我觉得是比较合适的

209
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就十个人是一个正常的标准

210
00:07:06,579 --> 00:07:07,220
实话实说啊

211
00:07:07,220 --> 00:07:08,259
我现在40个人

212
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我中间有30个人是给社会做贡献了

213
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就纯粹做贡献了

214
00:07:12,379 --> 00:07:14,420
因为AI它比那30个人还要厉害

215
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只是说今天在这种时代下

216
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我们就不要去推卸责任给这个社会了

217
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说真的好

218
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未来我觉得中国和美国一样哈

219
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就是你能开一个十人的公司

220
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都应该是至高无上的

221
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把这个光荣之家好

222
00:07:29,350 --> 00:07:32,129
这些都应该贴到了这些创业者的门上

223
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真的什么时候把创业者供上来

224
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像美国一样哈

225
00:07:36,709 --> 00:07:39,360
美国这边裁员是不用补偿的

226
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随时走随时走

227
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没有任何补偿

228
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这是美国啊

229
00:07:42,939 --> 00:07:46,379
什么时候中国像美国一样把创业者贴到墙上

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尊重他是吧

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然后呢向他们学

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然后呢对他们呵护有加

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这个时候你再来创业肯定不是现在

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所以你看我在看待这些事实

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实事的时候

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我从来没有因为实事的他我从来没有高兴过哈

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手兴奋过

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就像我自己2010年白酒

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咱也拿了很多十倍股

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光伏拿了很多十倍股哈

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然后互联网拿了很多十倍股

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然后当大家都认为这个事加着猴子有效的时候

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好我们该转型转型

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该重仓美股

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重仓美股是吧

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该在美国配置资产

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配置资产

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我们躲过了一劫

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那现在呢又轮到了AI了哈

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我们的AI拿到了很多翻倍股啊

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很多五倍股哈

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现在的话看到市场癫狂三分多多的时候

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我们不禁也是担心起来

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说这个局势啊估计还会重复

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还会重复202122年的故事

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因为这个时代它一定是均衡的

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他这个社会的生产力没有提升

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之前所有的投入最终呢他没有回报

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这就是核心问题啊

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你说AI到今天确实体验很好哈

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我每天都在用

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但是我用的结果是什么呢

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我认为目前呢他会对这个碳基的打击太大了

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真的我现在用cloud

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用codex之后

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我越发感觉到

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99%的人真的没有价值了

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各位你们自己用一下试试

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太恐怖了

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他真的是比人聪明多了

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而且马斯克说的没有错哈

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到今年年底之前

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大模型已经是这个历史5000年人类的智慧总和

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而且呢这种差距还在加大

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所以实际上你作为一个创业者啊

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你是人海战术型的

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你其实就在给自己挖坟墓

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因为你到时候跟美国不一样哈

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美国裁员是不用补仓

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上午说让你走人

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下午你一小时必须走人

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这是美国中国不是的

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所以最后呢所有的人海密一行的老板

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最后就是给员工买单

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所以呢你如果是人海民营企业

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你要算一下账号多少钱

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然后去到赔偿之后需不需要贷款对吧

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留足这种赔偿的钱就行了

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因为但凡说你赔你裁完员

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你还要你还要贷款

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那有可能你之前赚的钱还要偷回去

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这是最可怕的

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最好的方式就是算好是吧

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算好比如说1000个人一人赔10万一个亿

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那你留好一个亿

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随时准备关门的时候

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赔完钱就就什么都白干了

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那不至于限高嘛

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这个我不是危言耸听啊

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这个事一定会发生的

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而且很可能在一两年之内

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因为你用过大模型

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你就知道真的比人太聪明太多太多了

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所以实际上你说AI会不会继续哈

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我觉得有可能会继续

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会不会持续

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很难

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就他会继续狂热

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但是呢很难

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因为后边的那些失业率

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包括那些倒闭的企业

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包括所有的后边的小企业

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他都会在这身上加加蛤蟆

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所以呢最终的结果是什么呢

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各位你作为一个老板

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你一定要想明白哈

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超级个体自己干一个人加一个大模型对吧

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你是个员工啊

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你要学AI对吧

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你不要被时间淘汰了

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你你正在正在淘汰你的时候

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给老板说

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我一个人可以顶十个人啊

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裁掉90%可以留下我

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因为我这个技能可以把工作不耽误

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真的你相信我绝对没错的哈

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我是一个乐观的标杆主义者

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这些年就是因为我从来不站到人堆里

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所以我是为数不多的哈

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底层出来啊

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每一步财务自由

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然后呢顺利转型的就整体每年都挣钱

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整体亏的业务有

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但是加起来还是赚的

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就没有哪一年说整体亏钱过

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所以呢你能理解这句话呢

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我觉得最起码啊

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