五年一个周期到点终止

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哎大仙啊

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谢谢兄弟啊

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今天谢谢轩哥

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在美国呢做了我一年的助理

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今天又忘了收了空调啊

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太感谢了啊

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喝了点不讲酒啊

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强哥你知道我当时讲这个IP啊

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嗯我说最多做5年

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你今天听懂我说的

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为什么做5年了吗

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听懂了听懂了

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因为这个投资这个事啊

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你做到最后呢

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他也是个伪命题

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就是为什么伪命题啊

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因为他不是每一个人都真的能够理解价值投资里面的所有的关于价值

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像刚才我们分享的那些公司里面有长期有中期

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有困境

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反转

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有成长

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实际上你只要懂它都是价值投资

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是是你不能说做短期的

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他就是投机

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因为他懂

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他懂这个企业的短期价值

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比如你周期股

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你玩周期股

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你你你想给他终身死守不现实是对吧

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你玩那些养猪的

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造船的

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有色的

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你说一辈子守着一直不现实

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是长期的

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只有可能是什么穿越牛熊的消费消费

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有可能说啊我我一辈子

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因为为什么你看美股里面回报的最好的

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那第一个呢就是可口可乐100-500000倍

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然后奥奇亚都是消费

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麦当劳对麦当劳对吧

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全是消费

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那如果说你今天拿一个养猪的

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咱就说鸡蛋

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美国那个鸡蛋的最大的创投公司

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我记得去年的时候

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咱一个蛋一块多一美一美一美一块多美金啊

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现在多少一毛对

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那我问你他的PE3倍

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你要是因为它便宜买了

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那利润跌90%

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去年一块钱才一毛

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零售价跌90%

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利润跌百分之百呀

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那你怎么卖呀

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那第二个呢

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刚才我讲的困境反转

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阿特斯去年30多块钱的时候

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我在去年讲了多少次

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我讲了很多次对

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但实际上每个人都这样的

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就是当他认为国家涨的时候

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他认为还能涨的更多

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确实对吧

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这是核心问题

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还是可以涨的更多

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跌的时候呢他也认为跌的会更多

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所以有很多人他就是卖也是卖在高点

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卖也卖在低点

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卖在低点

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买在高点

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这人性呀

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实际上你说咱讲投资会反复的提醒

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这是一个什么类型的公司啊

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是严重低估

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肯定反转啊

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还是成长

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但是它的特性呢它不是每个人都能理解

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大部分人理解不了

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就是他公司的属性

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因为实际上你要是把这个公式完全研究明白

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就你的思维里面你的模型很重要

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看下门让他出去吧

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实际上它的模型很重要

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但是这个模型呢就很难拿来

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就是你你有这个模型意味着你的思考能力

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你的理解能力

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包括你对这个事的概括能力

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他要求极高

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他不是每个人都能理解的

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就像我我就讲一个人的思维方式啊

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比如说啊你是1亿像素的摄像头和100万销量

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说你都是能拍照

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但是你1亿和100万差别大不去了

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这个很有问题

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就是你是一意上说你能够造出来微米

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你是一一百万的

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还是你看起来你只能造个一米的

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是这个核心问题

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所以所以我觉得到最后啊没法去讲的

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每个人能听得懂

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所以到最后你只能说哎能听得懂的人

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大家一起聚一聚哈

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一起聊一聊

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要我们每次现在就是我们这我们这是第11期了是吧

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11期我们第11期线下聚会哈

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其实你可以感受到

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就是你说一个人他坐飞机1万公里过来啊

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包括开车3434天过来

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甚至很多兄弟呢就是为了来这一趟

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在路上折腾好几天

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对对吧

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你要我们有一期

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我们有一期是大家都不投资

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有的青岛老乡来的时候啊

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是是还有的是都不投资过来的

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其实有的时候你看到他们你会想什么

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万里迢迢过来只是为了和你见一面聊聊天

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因为他根本不是为了赚钱

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那个时候其实我有时候我还想我说说我希望讲的东西让他们有收益

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真能看到成长

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看到变化

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但这个事很难

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你懂吗

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又很难

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就他要认真的看

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他愿意看

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那你也是很认真的讲

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然后你很细的去讲

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讲到每个步骤

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每个环节啊

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每个想法

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每个节点就是你要讲的非常非常细

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你还想让他能听得懂

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这是非常非常难太难了

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所以有的时候我觉得这个事呢最多也是个伪命题

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我所以说我这个事我就能做5年

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我就就停掉了

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对

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5年呢他也是一个也算是一个自己啊

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就感觉是一个点吧

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就是5年上个台阶

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因为我做了很多生意都是5年

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比如我做代理做了5年

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很多都是品牌

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自主品牌呢做了5年呢

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油门还转型海外做工厂

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做了十

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做工厂做了10年

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对我觉得每5年就可以上个台阶

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比如说我现在这个模式商业模式啊

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啊今年是做第4年嘛

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啊还有一年多

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我这5年也可以上台阶

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就是另外一种生意模式

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因为我觉得我给我的人生就是每5年换一个类型

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让自己呢再做一个新的这种你认为的一个一个状态哈

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比如说我今天我我反复的讲

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我把每个公司每个类型啊

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就像我经常拿这个投资给这个找女朋友比例啊

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你是想结婚的啊

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就是终身持有白头到老

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还是一夜情的那一夜情

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那是两个极端

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那是投

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那是博弈啊

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还有一个就是啊大家的蓝颜知己

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蓝颜自己其实就是情人关系对吧

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他是一个大家两情相悦

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但是无法对吧

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最终修成正果的对吧

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还有就是短期的是one day one night

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实际上这就是就是我讲的逻辑是一样的

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就是实际上你投资你可以发现他现在比如说你因为顶尖商业模式是吧

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像巴菲特从来没卖过可口可乐

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但是呢巴菲特原来有1700亿的苹果

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现在卖了不到500亿了

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苹果他也卖了对吧

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那第二大运通他也坚持对吧

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他除了可口可乐以外

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他好像都坚持过

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都坚持都坚持过

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就是什么就是什么

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巴菲特他也不是说终身不卖

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第二个呢

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巴菲特一辈子买了2万多只股票

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他也不是他说的20个孔

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它满200多只

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只是有的重仓

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有的不重仓

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但你也知道古神它也是这样的

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就是它也不是说每个公司他都一从始到终都一样的对吧

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实际上说明每个公司它都有它公司的特点

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你也不能说从始至终都是一个状态

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对不对

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嗯那还有一个呢就是你说5年你你讲了很多

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你反复的讲也不现实对吧

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最终呢有些东西呢大家就会聊就聊到最后反正就做朋友嘛

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不是有朋友大家见面喝喝酒啊是吧

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聊聊感悟啊就行了

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那有些人呢反正走着走着就就是就就就此别过了嘛是吧

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他不可能没法走到最后

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对那走到最后了

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就大家说你不再是体现你投资了吗

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投资有什么好讲的

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讲到最后你发现没什么好讲的

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我现在说真的

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我不是很想讲真的

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我开播什么的

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我也不愿意讲

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没什么好讲的

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你讲了之后发现有什么好讲的

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有什么可讲的

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公司还是那个公司啊

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短期就是称重机

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短期是投票机

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长期是称重机

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嗯没有什么可讲的呀对吧

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你再讲那个公式不可能天天变对吧

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他今天卖猪肉

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明天不可能改行去造芯片对吧

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他他他他他就卖个猪肉

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你就说啥有啥好讲的

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他说卖鸡蛋他有啥好讲的呀是吧

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那卡梅尔卡梅尔卖鸡蛋

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全美的20%都是他供的鸡蛋

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没什么好讲的呀

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那我觉得你说一个卖鸡蛋的

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你天天他的估值三倍啊

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明年变成了三四倍

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很正常呀

231
00:08:25,230 --> 00:08:27,509
实际上我讲的最后你就是后本周期

232
00:08:27,509 --> 00:08:28,949
就是我投这个公司

233
00:08:28,949 --> 00:08:30,310
我多少年哎

234
00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:30,850
收回北京

235
00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:31,470
我就这样

236
00:08:31,470 --> 00:08:35,440
我说过北京你能不能接受这3年两年是吧

237
00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,600
因为我们理我们理想中是呃

238
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,000
我也能赚估值的钱

239
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:40,200
我也能赚成长的钱

240
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:41,320
我还能赚分红的钱

241
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:42,240
我能赚回购的钱

242
00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,359
这理想型态大部分时间我们只能赚一个钱对吧

243
00:08:45,359 --> 00:08:46,198
你赚了分红

244
00:08:46,198 --> 00:08:47,999
你就赚不了成长是吧

245
00:08:47,999 --> 00:08:48,639
你赚到成长

246
00:08:48,639 --> 00:08:50,590
你赚不了分红对吧

247
00:08:50,590 --> 00:08:51,330
那估值呢

248
00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:52,909
那实际上大部分估值都在走低

249
00:08:52,909 --> 00:08:54,990
为啥他他这个公司它它就没有成长

250
00:08:54,990 --> 00:08:56,580
因为它的估值肯定变低了

251
00:08:56,580 --> 00:09:00,240
所以做到最后你发现你只能赚一个类型的钱

252
00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,759
但是呢人总是希望通过每个点的钱都能赚到

253
00:09:03,759 --> 00:09:08,789
我总是希望银行股价的几十个维度我都能抓到

254
00:09:08,789 --> 00:09:12,019
但往往是你抓的越多

255
00:09:12,340 --> 00:09:13,879
你越抓不到重点

256
00:09:13,879 --> 00:09:15,200
往往都这样的

257
00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:17,139
就像我们每次见亲家见面会

258
00:09:17,139 --> 00:09:19,440
我们见到不同的人之后

259
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:24,299
那我也发现就是你发现他越是结果好的人呢

260
00:09:24,299 --> 00:09:25,730
他反而越简单

261
00:09:25,730 --> 00:09:28,519
他他他他在意的很少啊

262
00:09:28,519 --> 00:09:30,379
他再一两个就行了

263
00:09:30,379 --> 00:09:33,080
越是呢就是什么都想要的

264
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,740
反而最后什么都做不到

265
00:09:35,740 --> 00:09:36,259
哎呀

266
00:09:36,259 --> 00:09:37,139
所以我我有时候想过

267
00:09:37,139 --> 00:09:39,940
我说这个哎这这这个人生啊就很有意思

268
00:09:39,940 --> 00:09:41,100
你知道吗

269
00:09:42,369 --> 00:09:47,620
但是人生呢永远不能成为张艺恒那种

270
00:09:47,620 --> 00:09:48,860
就我昨天我就拍视频

271
00:09:48,860 --> 00:09:54,519
我就说如果张雪峰他早点看巴菲特看过左轮手枪的故事

272
00:09:54,519 --> 00:09:58,460
左轮手枪的故事就是你已经有一个亿了

273
00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:00,059
给你一把手枪

274
00:10:00,059 --> 00:10:01,379
一百一百颗子弹

275
00:10:01,379 --> 00:10:03,960
只要是枪没响

276
00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:05,639
你就变成两个亿了

277
00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:08,820
巴伯特说的原话是我有一个亿了

278
00:10:08,820 --> 00:10:10,379
我有两个亿干嘛呢

279
00:10:10,379 --> 00:10:12,149
是我付一次就够了呀

280
00:10:13,149 --> 00:10:14,970
那如果枪真的响了

281
00:10:14,970 --> 00:10:18,000
那墓碑上写什么呢

282
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,759
说这个人很牛逼

283
00:10:19,759 --> 00:10:21,100
曾经赚过一个亿

284
00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:23,870
最后呢啊为了赚两个

285
00:10:23,870 --> 00:10:24,809
一路上没了

286
00:10:24,809 --> 00:10:26,049
有什么意义呢

287
00:10:26,049 --> 00:10:28,730
所以我昨天晚上到了一点的时候

288
00:10:28,730 --> 00:10:30,269
我还写了篇文章

289
00:10:30,269 --> 00:10:31,169
我就说这个故事

290
00:10:31,169 --> 00:10:35,620
我说如果张雪峰早一点看到巴菲特的故事

291
00:10:35,620 --> 00:10:38,309
他早就像我一样退了

292
00:10:38,909 --> 00:10:39,909
到点停止

293
00:10:39,909 --> 00:10:41,009
这就是我的想法

294
00:10:41,009 --> 00:10:44,399
到点永远不走到另外一个极端

295
00:10:44,399 --> 00:10:45,980
5年一个阶段

296
00:10:45,980 --> 00:10:47,299
5年一个台阶

297
00:10:47,299 --> 00:10:49,059
5年一个故事

298
00:10:49,059 --> 00:10:50,299
5年一个轮回

299
00:10:50,299 --> 00:10:53,850
到点就停不恋难不纠结

300
00:10:53,850 --> 00:10:57,899
不在意做什么样都是自己很开心做到的

301
00:10:57,899 --> 00:11:00,330
所以结果怎么样

302
00:11:00,330 --> 00:11:01,850
实际上都不重要

303
00:11:01,850 --> 00:11:04,230
就是我讲的张雪峰

304
00:11:04,230 --> 00:11:11,990
他没有想明白我自我忘我无我就是我关于我的含义

305
00:11:11,990 --> 00:11:15,070
赵永鹏他只在第一层面自我上

306
00:11:15,070 --> 00:11:18,059
但他没有忘到忘我和无我

307
00:11:18,059 --> 00:11:21,039
所以实际上投资是门哲学

308
00:11:21,039 --> 00:11:22,419
人生是门哲学

309
00:11:22,419 --> 00:11:25,220
哼我觉得人生比投资重要多了

310
00:11:25,220 --> 00:11:27,980
对开心啊

311
00:11:27,980 --> 00:11:32,860
干杯了干杯干杯干杯影响好多人啊

312
00:11:34,070 --> 00:11:36,059
5年结束

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