BV1Z15T6REtE · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,980 嘿大家好 2 00:00:00,980 --> 00:00:04,990 今天咱们来拆解一份挺让人意外的金融报告 3 00:00:04,990 --> 00:00:09,230 我们的主角是一家正从现象级社交媒体爆款 4 00:00:09,230 --> 00:00:12,890 努力转型成全球IP巨头的公司 5 00:00:12,890 --> 00:00:14,089 跑跑马特 6 00:00:14,089 --> 00:00:16,870 如果你平时稍微关注一点潮玩儿 7 00:00:16,870 --> 00:00:18,649 绝对对他们不陌生 8 00:00:18,649 --> 00:00:22,030 但是摩根士丹利最近发的一份预测 9 00:00:22,030 --> 00:00:24,829 却在市场上砸出了不小的水花 10 00:00:24,829 --> 00:00:28,170 今天我们就来扒一扒这背后的真实逻辑 11 00:00:28,170 --> 00:00:29,210 准备好了吗 12 00:00:29,210 --> 00:00:30,429 咱们直接开始 13 00:00:30,429 --> 00:00:34,250 首先呢咱们得看看这个特别抓人眼球的矛盾点 14 00:00:34,250 --> 00:00:35,130 你想啊 15 00:00:35,130 --> 00:00:36,170 就在去年 16 00:00:36,170 --> 00:00:39,149 泡泡mart的勒布布简直是火的一塌糊涂 17 00:00:39,149 --> 00:00:40,729 全网都在抢 18 00:00:40,729 --> 00:00:41,979 一娃难求 19 00:00:41,979 --> 00:00:45,740 结果呢在这种看起来明明是赢麻了的局面 20 00:00:45,740 --> 00:00:48,920 像华尔街的分析师们却突然踩了刹车 21 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,439 大幅下调了对他们未来的预期 22 00:00:51,439 --> 00:00:53,098 这到底是怎么回事 23 00:00:53,098 --> 00:00:54,719 是大家审美疲劳了 24 00:00:54,719 --> 00:00:56,640 还是华尔街看走眼了 25 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,740 OK咱们赶紧切入正题 26 00:00:58,740 --> 00:01:01,079 今天就分四步把这事聊透 27 00:01:01,079 --> 00:01:04,319 第一步聊聊社交媒体退烧的影响 28 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,978 第二步揭秘他们转战线下的这波大反转 29 00:01:07,978 --> 00:01:11,709 第三步算算美国关税带来的意外红利 30 00:01:11,709 --> 00:01:16,349 最后咱们再一起看看机构对未来的终极预测啊 31 00:01:16,349 --> 00:01:17,670 先看第一部分 32 00:01:17,670 --> 00:01:20,099 社交媒体热潮退去 33 00:01:20,099 --> 00:01:24,319 咱们先直面一下目前市场里那些所谓的坏消息 34 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,590 你看看这个惊人的数字啊 35 00:01:26,590 --> 00:01:29,718 30 35%啥意思呢 36 00:01:29,718 --> 00:01:36,719 就是摩根史丹利对泡泡玛特明后两年海外线上销售额狠狠砍下的一刀 37 00:01:36,719 --> 00:01:37,680 你想啊 38 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:44,340 去年有多少人是纯粹被网上的狂热气氛带着跑跟风在线上买的拉布布 39 00:01:44,340 --> 00:01:47,640 很多人甚至连实体店的大门朝哪开都不知道 40 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:49,480 一旦网上的热度散去 41 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,319 这部分冲动消费肯定就没了对吧 42 00:01:52,319 --> 00:01:54,459 所以说热度一降温 43 00:01:54,459 --> 00:01:57,789 盈利预期自然就得跟着往下调 44 00:01:57,789 --> 00:02:02,049 摩根士丹利非常直接把目标价砍了11帕 45 00:02:02,049 --> 00:02:05,989 从278港元降到了247港元 46 00:02:05,989 --> 00:02:09,750 同时对明后两年的盈利预测也下调了 47 00:02:09,750 --> 00:02:13,400 光听这些是不是觉得情况好像有点糟 48 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,419 但是我们得拉长时间来看 49 00:02:16,419 --> 00:02:18,900 根据2026年的预测 50 00:02:18,900 --> 00:02:20,979 第三季度确实是个低谷 51 00:02:20,979 --> 00:02:23,650 预计要跌10~15percent 52 00:02:23,650 --> 00:02:24,849 可你猜怎么着 53 00:02:24,849 --> 00:02:28,810 紧接着的第四季度马上就能强势反弹 54 00:02:28,810 --> 00:02:29,689 10percent 55 00:02:29,689 --> 00:02:34,449 也就是说市场其实早就把这个下跌的预期给消化掉了 56 00:02:34,449 --> 00:02:36,449 只要熬过三季度那个坎儿 57 00:02:36,449 --> 00:02:39,139 后面反而是一个重新加速的型号 58 00:02:39,139 --> 00:02:45,229 这就非常自然地带我们进入了第二部分线下扩张的战略转移 59 00:02:45,229 --> 00:02:48,319 这也是整个故事里最大的剧情反转 60 00:02:48,319 --> 00:02:50,580 表面上看是数据在掉 61 00:02:50,580 --> 00:02:55,159 但其实人家的底层战略正在闷声进化呢 62 00:02:55,159 --> 00:02:58,599 其实摩根士丹利在报告里说的非常明白 63 00:02:58,599 --> 00:03:04,530 原话就是我们认为泡泡玛特的海外发展逻辑并未被破坏 64 00:03:04,530 --> 00:03:07,879 而且他们依然维持了增持的评级 65 00:03:07,879 --> 00:03:13,819 说白了现在只不过是在消化之前过高的互联网热度而已 66 00:03:13,819 --> 00:03:15,400 这是在蓄力 67 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:16,909 绝不是凉了 68 00:03:16,909 --> 00:03:20,219 咱们对比一下这两拨截然不同的人 69 00:03:20,219 --> 00:03:26,159 一边儿呢是去年被全网跟风浪潮卷进来的一次性买家 70 00:03:26,159 --> 00:03:30,719 而另一边才是泡泡马特现在真正眼红的猎物 71 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:32,360 线下回头客 72 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,840 实体店能提供那种沉浸式的IP体验 73 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,469 这可是冷冰冰的网购给不了的 74 00:03:38,469 --> 00:03:43,250 只要把路人粉实打实的变成愿意经常光顾的死忠粉 75 00:03:43,250 --> 00:03:46,050 那才是真正细水长流的生意 76 00:03:46,050 --> 00:03:48,530 为了圈住这些死忠粉 77 00:03:48,530 --> 00:03:52,250 他们开店的速度简直可以用疯狂来形容 78 00:03:52,250 --> 00:03:53,229 记住啊 79 00:03:53,229 --> 00:03:57,349 R70这个数字预计到明年年底 80 00:03:57,349 --> 00:04:03,479 泡泡玛特的海外门店要从185家狂飙到270家 81 00:04:03,639 --> 00:04:09,139 这就是他们为了扩大经常性客户群体在桌面上压下的重注 82 00:04:09,139 --> 00:04:11,199 接下来是第三部分 83 00:04:11,199 --> 00:04:13,099 美国关税的顺风车 84 00:04:13,099 --> 00:04:15,699 在他们大力铺设线下的时候 85 00:04:15,699 --> 00:04:18,620 外部环境也送来了一波神助攻 86 00:04:18,620 --> 00:04:23,350 尤其是在挑战极大的美国市场看财报的时候 87 00:04:23,350 --> 00:04:26,050 你可能会被这些枯燥的数据吓到 88 00:04:26,050 --> 00:04:28,569 哎呀净利润率收缩了 89 00:04:28,569 --> 00:04:30,959 管理费用率也飙升了 90 00:04:30,959 --> 00:04:32,540 但咱们来想一想 91 00:04:32,540 --> 00:04:34,050 那又怎样呢 92 00:04:34,050 --> 00:04:38,389 其实说白了你要在海外大刀阔斧地开实体店 93 00:04:38,389 --> 00:04:39,449 养团队 94 00:04:39,449 --> 00:04:41,680 这些钱是必须得花的呀 95 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,500 这叫战略性支出 96 00:04:43,500 --> 00:04:46,769 钱是实实在在花在了刀刃上 97 00:04:46,769 --> 00:04:49,850 而且他们算盘打得极其精明 98 00:04:49,850 --> 00:04:51,788 咱们来看这个因果链条 99 00:04:51,788 --> 00:04:56,389 首先预测他们在美国面临的关税可能会从30~40 100 00:04:56,389 --> 00:04:58,889 percent的骤降到5~10percent 101 00:04:58,889 --> 00:05:01,189 有了这么大一块缓冲利润 102 00:05:01,189 --> 00:05:06,319 第二步泡泡mart顺势把美国市场部分新品降了3~5美元 103 00:05:06,319 --> 00:05:09,730 结果呢毛利润几乎被完美保护住了 104 00:05:09,730 --> 00:05:12,170 但东西却变得更具性价比 105 00:05:12,170 --> 00:05:15,629 这不就直接把大批新客户给吸引过来了吗 106 00:05:15,629 --> 00:05:18,129 你想象一下这个画面 107 00:05:18,129 --> 00:05:19,889 现在的经济环境 108 00:05:19,889 --> 00:05:22,870 别的同行都被成本逼着涨价 109 00:05:22,870 --> 00:05:24,449 泡泡骂的倒好 110 00:05:24,449 --> 00:05:26,079 反而变便宜了 111 00:05:26,079 --> 00:05:29,319 在消费者对价格极其敏感的时期 112 00:05:29,319 --> 00:05:33,149 这种战略性降价简直是完美踩中了节奏 113 00:05:33,149 --> 00:05:36,889 绝对是抢占北美市场的一招妙棋好了 114 00:05:36,889 --> 00:05:39,680 看清了短期的阵痛和长远的布局 115 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,279 咱们进入最后一部分 116 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,160 对未来的情景预测 117 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,449 咱们看看华尔街到底是怎么给它定价的 118 00:05:46,449 --> 00:05:48,709 怎么直接把底牌亮出来 119 00:05:48,709 --> 00:05:51,319 摩根士丹利给了三种预测情景 120 00:05:51,319 --> 00:05:53,980 你看即便是所谓的基准情景 121 00:05:53,980 --> 00:05:56,129 也就是不吹不黑的正常情况 122 00:05:56,129 --> 00:05:59,290 目标价依然定在了247港元 123 00:05:59,290 --> 00:06:01,930 要知道这份报告刚出炉的时候 124 00:06:01,930 --> 00:06:04,110 股价才168港元左右 125 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:05,079 这说明啥 126 00:06:05,079 --> 00:06:07,579 这意味着即便是下调了预期 127 00:06:07,579 --> 00:06:11,610 它依然有足足47percent的巨大上涨空间啊 128 00:06:11,610 --> 00:06:15,910 这张风险回报图真正有趣的地方在于它的形态 129 00:06:15,910 --> 00:06:19,649 你看右边这个巨大的灰色锥形区域 130 00:06:19,649 --> 00:06:23,418 他非常直观地展示了机构眼里的未来 131 00:06:23,418 --> 00:06:26,699 简单来说像跌的风险是有限的 132 00:06:26,699 --> 00:06:28,478 但往上涨的空间呢 133 00:06:28,478 --> 00:06:30,050 那可是海阔天空 134 00:06:30,050 --> 00:06:33,850 只要挺过这段社交媒体降温的消化期 135 00:06:33,850 --> 00:06:35,689 等海外销售一反弹 136 00:06:35,689 --> 00:06:37,949 估值重估马上就会到来 137 00:06:37,949 --> 00:06:42,569 归根结底你可别真把人家当成个只卖盲盒的玩具商了 138 00:06:42,569 --> 00:06:44,230 人家的野心大着呢 139 00:06:44,230 --> 00:06:47,550 路线图上对标的可是三笠佑万代乐高 140 00:06:47,550 --> 00:06:48,790 甚至迪士尼 141 00:06:48,790 --> 00:06:52,329 作为咱们本土成长起来的全球消费品牌 142 00:06:52,329 --> 00:06:55,269 他们正在用直接面对消费者的模式 143 00:06:55,269 --> 00:06:57,839 疯狂收购全球的大同市场 144 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,379 这才是他们真正的护城河 145 00:07:00,379 --> 00:07:04,060 这也就是咱们今天拆解的核心了 146 00:07:04,060 --> 00:07:07,379 表面上是下调预期背后 147 00:07:07,379 --> 00:07:11,290 其实在下一盘全球实体布局的大棋 148 00:07:11,290 --> 00:07:15,829 等泡泡玛特慢慢褪去那种病都史爆红的浮躁 149 00:07:15,829 --> 00:07:18,290 这波扎实的线下转型 150 00:07:18,290 --> 00:07:23,800 会不会成为他们彻底锁减全球IP市场的终极钥匙呢 151 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,180 咱们拭目以待接下来的财报吧 152 00:07:26,180 --> 00:07:27,879 感谢收看今天的拆解 153 00:07:27,879 --> 00:07:29,079 咱们下期见
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