BV1Z15T6RELo · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,560 哈喽大家好 2 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:02,359 欢迎来到这期的深度解读啊 3 00:00:02,359 --> 00:00:04,019 咱们今天直奔主题 4 00:00:04,019 --> 00:00:07,038 今天我们要拆解一份分量特别重的报告 5 00:00:07,038 --> 00:00:11,070 高盛最新发布的中国房地产市场第19周周报 6 00:00:11,070 --> 00:00:13,470 对于关注经济和投资的朋友来说 7 00:00:13,470 --> 00:00:16,089 房地产绝对是咱们绕不开的核心话题 8 00:00:16,089 --> 00:00:17,170 但说实话啊 9 00:00:17,170 --> 00:00:20,809 平时面对铺天盖地的新闻和眼花缭老恩的数据 10 00:00:20,809 --> 00:00:22,609 我们确实很容易看晕 11 00:00:22,609 --> 00:00:26,129 所以今天就让我们一起穿透这些繁杂的数据表象 12 00:00:26,129 --> 00:00:31,350 去看看最近的房地产市场里那些隐藏在头条背后的真实动态 13 00:00:31,350 --> 00:00:34,939 相信现在大家心里可能都有个大大的问号 14 00:00:34,939 --> 00:00:38,939 咱们的房地产市场究竟是还在谷底磨盘 15 00:00:38,939 --> 00:00:41,359 还是已经迎来了真正的转折点 16 00:00:41,359 --> 00:00:42,840 准备开始加速了 17 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,479 面对这份信息量巨大的金融报告 18 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:46,340 大家别急 19 00:00:46,340 --> 00:00:47,840 咱们一起抽丝剥茧 20 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,929 把里面的门道给看清楚 21 00:00:49,929 --> 00:00:53,890 高盛在这份报告里提到了一个特别核心的点 22 00:00:53,890 --> 00:00:56,850 可以说是表象与暗流的博弈 23 00:00:56,850 --> 00:00:58,119 他们原话是说 24 00:00:58,119 --> 00:01:01,340 虽然看整体交易量出现了温和的回落 25 00:01:01,340 --> 00:01:05,359 但领先指标显示市场动能正在重新加速 26 00:01:05,359 --> 00:01:09,120 简单来说就是如果你只看最表面的数据 27 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:10,959 确实它轻微下滑了 28 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,420 但你要是觉得市场这就凉了 29 00:01:13,420 --> 00:01:15,198 那可就大错特错了 30 00:01:15,198 --> 00:01:17,959 其实在这些平淡的表面数据之下 31 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,519 更深层的市场动能正在悄悄蓄力呢 32 00:01:21,519 --> 00:01:23,579 这到底是怎么一回事啊 33 00:01:23,579 --> 00:01:25,579 为了彻底弄懂这个问题 34 00:01:25,579 --> 00:01:28,769 咱们今天的解读就按着这个清晰的思路来 35 00:01:28,769 --> 00:01:31,170 先聊聊政策和市场动能 36 00:01:31,170 --> 00:01:33,930 接着去追踪一下交易量的数据 37 00:01:33,930 --> 00:01:36,659 然后衡量一下目前的市场情绪 38 00:01:36,659 --> 00:01:39,840 再去看看库存跟竣工的趋势 39 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,340 最后呢咱们落脚在开发商的股票估值上 40 00:01:43,340 --> 00:01:46,150 看看资本市场是怎么想的好 41 00:01:46,150 --> 00:01:48,829 那咱们就先从第一部分聊起来 42 00:01:48,829 --> 00:01:52,650 看看地方性宽松是怎么变成催化剂的 43 00:01:52,650 --> 00:01:53,870 大家都知道 44 00:01:53,870 --> 00:01:56,090 市场想重新跑起来 45 00:01:56,090 --> 00:01:58,290 绝对离不开背后的推手 46 00:01:58,290 --> 00:02:00,310 现在这波政策非常有意思 47 00:02:00,310 --> 00:02:01,689 它不是一刀切的 48 00:02:01,689 --> 00:02:03,010 而是精准滴灌 49 00:02:03,010 --> 00:02:05,120 各地都有各地的奇招 50 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,960 比如惠州把公积金贷款的上限给大幅拉高了 51 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,400 贵阳呢直接用真金白银补贴里 52 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:11,849 差 53 00:02:11,849 --> 00:02:12,770 更狠的是 54 00:02:12,770 --> 00:02:17,509 广州花都区直接甩出了买房就能享受入学权益这个杀手锏 55 00:02:17,509 --> 00:02:21,789 你想想这些公积金的优化和曲线级别的强力支持 56 00:02:21,789 --> 00:02:24,210 对于那些还在观望的买房人来说 57 00:02:24,210 --> 00:02:27,770 绝对是促使他们赶紧入场的绝佳催化剂 58 00:02:27,770 --> 00:02:29,830 接下来咱们进入第二部分 59 00:02:29,830 --> 00:02:32,069 去追踪一下交易量数据 60 00:02:32,069 --> 00:02:35,829 带你揭开刚才说的表象之下的真相 61 00:02:35,829 --> 00:02:37,528 看了这组数据 62 00:02:37,528 --> 00:02:39,689 有的朋友可能会有点黄 63 00:02:39,689 --> 00:02:40,650 乍一看 64 00:02:40,650 --> 00:02:42,990 不管是新房还是二手房 65 00:02:42,990 --> 00:02:46,870 交易量跟上一周比都降了大概3%到四 66 00:02:46,870 --> 00:02:48,689 感觉是不是有点软 67 00:02:48,689 --> 00:02:49,810 大家别急 68 00:02:49,810 --> 00:02:54,139 把注意力集中在右边这个二手房的同比数据上 69 00:02:54,139 --> 00:02:55,699 虽然环比降了 70 00:02:55,699 --> 00:02:57,719 但你跟去年这个时候一比 71 00:02:57,719 --> 00:03:01,759 二手房的交易量竟然一口气飙升了23% 72 00:03:01,759 --> 00:03:07,680 也就是说市场的底层活跃度其实比你想象的要强劲得多 73 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,719 现在屏幕上这个图表表特别完美的印证了咱们刚才的说法 74 00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:15,199 大家看今年累计到现在 75 00:03:15,199 --> 00:03:18,789 一手房的销售面积同比是掉了16percent的 76 00:03:18,789 --> 00:03:22,180 但你在看二手房仅仅微降了3percent 77 00:03:22,180 --> 00:03:23,639 更关键的是什么 78 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,560 在第19周这个时间点 79 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:31,110 二手房市场依然稳稳当当的保持着超过20percent的强劲同比增长 80 00:03:31,110 --> 00:03:31,990 毫无疑问 81 00:03:31,990 --> 00:03:37,610 二手房市场的这股韧性已经成了当前整个房地产市场的压舱石 82 00:03:37,610 --> 00:03:39,310 好那我们接着往下看 83 00:03:39,310 --> 00:03:40,389 进入第三部分 84 00:03:40,389 --> 00:03:43,110 咱们来衡量一下市场情绪感受 85 00:03:43,110 --> 00:03:45,689 领先指标里涌动的暗流 86 00:03:45,689 --> 00:03:48,669 咱们常说成交量是滞后指标 87 00:03:48,669 --> 00:03:50,030 你要想提前预判 88 00:03:50,030 --> 00:03:51,879 就得盯紧市场情绪 89 00:03:51,879 --> 00:03:55,139 大家仔细看看买房人的这个行为转化漏斗 90 00:03:55,139 --> 00:03:56,159 太有意思了 91 00:03:56,159 --> 00:03:56,919 第一步 92 00:03:56,919 --> 00:03:58,800 大家开始在网上搜新房了 93 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:00,620 热度涨了四1% 94 00:04:00,620 --> 00:04:02,819 然后不光是在手机上看 95 00:04:02,819 --> 00:04:05,439 大家真真实实的出门去看房了 96 00:04:05,439 --> 00:04:08,990 二手房带看量蹭的一下猛增了12% 97 00:04:08,990 --> 00:04:14,568 最绝的是最后这一步看房直接转化成了真金白银的购买意愿 98 00:04:14,568 --> 00:04:17,949 二手房认购量环比直接暴涨了21% 99 00:04:17,949 --> 00:04:19,050 这说明啥 100 00:04:19,050 --> 00:04:21,470 说明观望的情绪正在消散 101 00:04:21,470 --> 00:04:25,000 买家们真的在用脚投票加速进场了 102 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:26,800 刚才看了买家 103 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,819 那卖家是怎么想的呢 104 00:04:28,819 --> 00:04:33,649 中原地产的这个指数显示出了一个非常有意思的分化 105 00:04:33,649 --> 00:04:39,449 代表中介老哥看法的这个CSI指数呢环比微降了0.4个百分点 106 00:04:39,449 --> 00:04:41,430 感觉中介还比较谨慎 107 00:04:41,430 --> 00:04:43,550 但是呀代表房东 108 00:04:43,550 --> 00:04:49,418 也就是卖家真实心态的CAI指数反而上升了0.2个百分点 109 00:04:49,418 --> 00:04:50,639 这意味着什么 110 00:04:50,639 --> 00:04:53,879 这就是说卖家现在心里有底儿了 111 00:04:53,879 --> 00:04:56,620 他们不再着急忙慌的降价抛售了 112 00:04:56,620 --> 00:05:01,490 买卖双方的心理天平正在发生非常微妙的倾斜 113 00:05:01,490 --> 00:05:03,269 聊完了情绪 114 00:05:03,269 --> 00:05:08,288 咱们在第四部分来看看硬核的库存和竣工趋势 115 00:05:08,288 --> 00:05:11,740 看看供给端是怎么慢慢消化的 116 00:05:11,740 --> 00:05:15,779 库存去化周期这个数字大家肯定都非常关心 117 00:05:15,779 --> 00:05:18,689 目前的数字是28.9个月 118 00:05:18,689 --> 00:05:21,129 老实说听起来还是很长对吧 119 00:05:21,129 --> 00:05:23,500 说明咱们还有大量房子得卖 120 00:05:23,500 --> 00:05:25,560 但关键在于它的趋势 121 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,540 要知道4月份的平均数据可是29.3个月呢 122 00:05:29,540 --> 00:05:31,379 现在明显在往下降 123 00:05:31,379 --> 00:05:34,220 库存余额环比下降0.200分比 124 00:05:34,220 --> 00:05:35,459 降幅确实不大 125 00:05:35,459 --> 00:05:37,579 但它结结实实的告诉我们 126 00:05:37,579 --> 00:05:39,060 市场正在缓慢 127 00:05:39,060 --> 00:05:41,720 但非常坚定地消化着现有的房子 128 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,769 这其实是一种极其稳健的复苏节奏 129 00:05:44,769 --> 00:05:47,149 那新房的竣工情况怎么样 130 00:05:47,149 --> 00:05:53,019 大家看高盛基于他们独家的模型算出来的这个GSPC追踪器数据 131 00:05:53,019 --> 00:05:58,879 它显示4月份的房屋竣工量预计同比下降了差不多十个百分比 132 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:04,990 这跟高盛预测的整个2026财年竣工量微降E百分比是非常吻合的 133 00:06:04,990 --> 00:06:06,649 供给端开始收缩了 134 00:06:06,649 --> 00:06:07,449 换句话说 135 00:06:07,449 --> 00:06:11,259 这也给咱们未来缓解库存压力腾出了不少空间 136 00:06:11,259 --> 00:06:14,579 终于到了大家最期待的第五部分了 137 00:06:14,579 --> 00:06:16,500 咱们去看看资本市场的表现 138 00:06:16,500 --> 00:06:18,970 聊聊开发商的股票估值 139 00:06:18,970 --> 00:06:21,129 咱们前面聊了半天的政策 140 00:06:21,129 --> 00:06:21,689 销量 141 00:06:21,689 --> 00:06:22,790 还有情绪 142 00:06:22,790 --> 00:06:27,149 最后这些统统都要反映在真金白银的股市里 143 00:06:27,149 --> 00:06:28,050 要知道 144 00:06:28,050 --> 00:06:30,689 资本的鼻子永远是最灵的 145 00:06:30,689 --> 00:06:34,470 大家一定要记住屏幕上这个数字13% 146 00:06:34,470 --> 00:06:37,910 这代表了目前离岸覆盖的开发商股票 147 00:06:37,910 --> 00:06:43,019 相较于2026年底预期资产净值的巨大折价幅度 148 00:06:43,019 --> 00:06:44,740 如果你平时搞投资 149 00:06:44,740 --> 00:06:46,160 看到这么深的折价 150 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,269 你脑子里的雷达应该已经狂想了吧 151 00:06:49,269 --> 00:06:52,870 说白了现在的股价被远远低估了 152 00:06:52,870 --> 00:06:56,860 严重背离了这些公司实际持有的资产价值 153 00:06:56,860 --> 00:06:59,519 那资金现在都涌向哪里了呢 154 00:06:59,519 --> 00:07:03,089 过去一周的表现给出了极其明确的答案 155 00:07:03,089 --> 00:07:08,019 那种有强劲国企背景的开发商成了绝对的领头羊 156 00:07:08,019 --> 00:07:10,160 你看中国海外发展 157 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:11,240 中国经贸 158 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:12,540 短短一个星期 159 00:07:12,540 --> 00:07:16,000 股价双双飙升了惊人的19% 160 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:17,620 就算是民营开发商 161 00:07:17,620 --> 00:07:21,069 平均下来也有13%的强劲涨幅 162 00:07:21,069 --> 00:07:25,279 可以说整个板块直接迎来了全线爆发 163 00:07:25,279 --> 00:07:27,480 如果咱们看整体情况 164 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,850 这种跑赢大盘的程度就更夸张了 165 00:07:30,850 --> 00:07:33,290 你看图上离岸覆盖的内仿古 166 00:07:33,290 --> 00:07:36,350 一周内平均飙升了14% 167 00:07:36,350 --> 00:07:42,310 咱们找个参照物比对一下同一时期的MSCI中国指数涨了多少 168 00:07:42,310 --> 00:07:43,879 仅仅2% 169 00:07:43,879 --> 00:07:47,319 内房股以绝对的优势碾压了大盘 170 00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:50,879 这明摆着就是资本在疯狂压入赌 171 00:07:50,879 --> 00:07:54,240 咱们的房地产市场马上就要触底反弹了 172 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:58,678 最后这个估值数据绝对能把咱们今天的分析推向高潮 173 00:07:58,678 --> 00:07:59,559 大家看啊 174 00:07:59,559 --> 00:08:02,019 不管是按内还是案外覆盖的开发商 175 00:08:02,019 --> 00:08:05,629 现在市净率也就是在0.5倍到0.6倍之间徘徊 176 00:08:05,629 --> 00:08:06,629 这是个啥概念 177 00:08:06,629 --> 00:08:07,410 大家知道吗 178 00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:09,180 咱们往前翻翻历史记录 179 00:08:09,180 --> 00:08:11,779 只有在2008年全球金融危机 180 00:08:11,779 --> 00:08:12,759 2011年 181 00:08:12,759 --> 00:08:13,939 还有2014年 182 00:08:13,939 --> 00:08:15,680 房地产极度惨淡的时期 183 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,678 才出现过这么极端这么低的估值底部 184 00:08:18,678 --> 00:08:23,649 也就是说咱们现在其实就结结实实地站在了历史低谷的边缘上 185 00:08:23,649 --> 00:08:26,750 所以面对这样历史极为的极低估值 186 00:08:26,750 --> 00:08:30,250 市场是不是真的已经砸出了一个绝对的底部呢 187 00:08:30,250 --> 00:08:33,529 这正是今天留给大家去仔细思考的问题 188 00:08:33,529 --> 00:08:34,830 咱们这期看下来 189 00:08:34,830 --> 00:08:38,029 一方面表层交易量确实又温和回落 190 00:08:38,029 --> 00:08:40,169 但另一方面带看量暴涨 191 00:08:40,169 --> 00:08:41,370 国企股价狂飙 192 00:08:41,370 --> 00:08:42,730 政策精准发力 193 00:08:42,730 --> 00:08:47,139 深层的市场动能确确实实正在以惊人的速度重新加速 194 00:08:47,139 --> 00:08:51,779 这股暗流到底能不能在接下来的第20周彻底冲破水面 195 00:08:51,779 --> 00:08:52,899 扭转乾坤 196 00:08:52,899 --> 00:08:54,119 让我们拭目以待 197 00:08:54,119 --> 00:08:55,458 关注我们的后续更新 198 00:08:55,458 --> 00:08:58,438 我们下次继续为您带来最硬核的数据解析 199 00:08:58,438 --> 00:08:59,778 非常感谢大家的陪伴 200 00:08:59,778 --> 00:09:01,100 咱们下期见
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