BV1Z15T6REJ8 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,740 大家好 2 00:00:00,740 --> 00:00:02,379 咱们直接进入正题 3 00:00:02,379 --> 00:00:06,879 最近美国小盘软件股刚刚交出了一季度的答卷 4 00:00:06,879 --> 00:00:08,939 不过如果你一直在盯盘 5 00:00:08,939 --> 00:00:10,919 估计这会儿正满头问号 6 00:00:10,919 --> 00:00:12,580 很多投资者都在纳闷儿 7 00:00:12,580 --> 00:00:16,170 因为市场跑出了一些极其反常识的现象 8 00:00:16,170 --> 00:00:20,530 今天咱们就借着杰弗瑞最近出炉的一份深度投研报告 9 00:00:20,530 --> 00:00:23,728 把这个让人摸不着头脑的开局给拆解明白 10 00:00:23,728 --> 00:00:27,489 看看美国软件市场现在到底在玩什么新花样 11 00:00:27,489 --> 00:00:31,160 咱们先来抛出一个有点不可思议的谜题 12 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,880 华尔街为什么会毫不留情地下掉 13 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,350 一只刚刚超预期完成盈利目标的股票的评级 14 00:00:39,350 --> 00:00:40,409 想象一下啊 15 00:00:40,409 --> 00:00:42,369 你平时测验都考80分 16 00:00:42,369 --> 00:00:44,710 这次超常发挥考了95分 17 00:00:44,710 --> 00:00:45,539 全班第一 18 00:00:45,539 --> 00:00:49,848 结果呢老师反而把你的期末综合评级给降了 19 00:00:49,848 --> 00:00:51,209 听着挺离谱对吧 20 00:00:51,209 --> 00:00:55,399 但这真真实实的在现在的软件板块上演着 21 00:00:55,399 --> 00:00:56,679 杰弗瑞的报告里 22 00:00:56,679 --> 00:00:58,100 直接点出了这个悖论 23 00:00:58,100 --> 00:01:01,189 你看一边是营收预期上调 24 00:01:01,189 --> 00:01:04,450 也就是说这些公司实际跑出来的业务不仅稳健 25 00:01:04,450 --> 00:01:06,650 甚至比分析师预想的还要好 26 00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:08,069 卖出了更多的软件 27 00:01:08,069 --> 00:01:09,219 赚了更多的钱 28 00:01:09,219 --> 00:01:11,579 但另一边简直让人大跌眼镜 29 00:01:11,579 --> 00:01:14,039 他们的目标价居然被吓掉了 30 00:01:14,039 --> 00:01:15,759 基本面明明在向好 31 00:01:15,759 --> 00:01:17,478 目标价却在大幅缩水 32 00:01:17,478 --> 00:01:19,459 这中间到底发生了什么 33 00:01:19,459 --> 00:01:20,239 好的 34 00:01:26,090 --> 00:01:31,709 现在咱们看到的是杰弗瑞报告里最原始的变更汇总表 35 00:01:31,709 --> 00:01:35,810 我知道这张表第一眼看上去密密麻麻的 36 00:01:35,810 --> 00:01:37,450 全是财务预测呀 37 00:01:37,450 --> 00:01:38,890 估值倍数之类的 38 00:01:38,890 --> 00:01:40,170 有点让人眼晕 39 00:01:40,170 --> 00:01:41,329 不过别担心 40 00:01:41,329 --> 00:01:42,650 为了方便理解 41 00:01:42,650 --> 00:01:44,730 我已经把这里头最关键 42 00:01:44,730 --> 00:01:47,769 最让人觉得匪夷所思的数据单拎出来了 43 00:01:47,769 --> 00:01:49,379 咱们接着往下看 44 00:01:49,379 --> 00:01:52,659 你看这几家大家都比较关注的软件公司 45 00:01:52,659 --> 00:01:54,459 像CLUVIOPEOCITY 46 00:01:54,459 --> 00:01:55,159 还有par 47 00:01:55,159 --> 00:01:58,239 他们的营收预期其实是被华尔街上调了的 48 00:01:58,239 --> 00:02:01,420 尤其是par营收预期上调了3% 49 00:02:01,420 --> 00:02:03,359 但这目标价好家伙 50 00:02:03,359 --> 00:02:06,370 从34美元直接腰斩到了18美元 51 00:02:06,370 --> 00:02:08,689 clavier和PEOCITY也没逃掉 52 00:02:08,689 --> 00:02:10,620 目标价都被大幅削减 53 00:02:10,620 --> 00:02:11,840 但有意思的是 54 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:13,680 同在一个赛道的rain central呢 55 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,219 营收预期几乎没动 56 00:02:15,219 --> 00:02:16,699 涨幅不到1% 57 00:02:16,699 --> 00:02:20,580 目标价反而逆势从29美元飙到了40美元 58 00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:21,840 都是做软件的 59 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,620 待遇怎么就差这么多呢 60 00:02:23,620 --> 00:02:25,759 这就引出了我们的第二部分 61 00:02:25,759 --> 00:02:27,460 估值倍数压缩 62 00:02:27,460 --> 00:02:30,099 华尔街到底在算计什么 63 00:02:30,099 --> 00:02:32,000 要破解刚才那个谜团 64 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,139 咱们得先认识一下今天故事里的头号反派 65 00:02:35,139 --> 00:02:36,819 估值倍数压缩 66 00:02:36,819 --> 00:02:39,120 说白了这是一种金融现象 67 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:42,000 当一家公司实实在在的赚了更多钱 68 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:43,819 但他的股价却原地踏步 69 00:02:43,819 --> 00:02:46,199 甚至往下跌的时候就是他在作祟 70 00:02:46,199 --> 00:02:47,219 为什么会这样 71 00:02:47,219 --> 00:02:49,259 因为投资者的心态变了呀 72 00:02:49,259 --> 00:02:52,580 大家现在不愿意再为这些公司所谓的未来高增长 73 00:02:52,580 --> 00:02:54,340 支付以前那样的高溢价了 74 00:02:54,340 --> 00:02:55,159 换句话说 75 00:02:55,159 --> 00:02:58,579 市场给同一份利润开出的估值乘数变小了 76 00:02:58,579 --> 00:03:01,718 这也就解释了为什么公司明明赚得更多 77 00:03:01,718 --> 00:03:04,199 华尔街给的目标价却更低了 78 00:03:04,199 --> 00:03:08,310 咱们听听杰富瑞的分析师是怎么大白话讲这件事的 79 00:03:08,310 --> 00:03:10,169 在分析配OCITY的时候 80 00:03:10,169 --> 00:03:12,050 人家直接在报告里写 81 00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:13,830 尽管我们上调了预期 82 00:03:13,830 --> 00:03:17,270 但还是把目标价降到了135美元 83 00:03:17,270 --> 00:03:19,930 主要原因就是最近整个软件行业 84 00:03:19,930 --> 00:03:23,930 特别是人力资本管理板块出现了估值倍数压缩 85 00:03:23,930 --> 00:03:25,830 这话说的再明白不过了 86 00:03:25,830 --> 00:03:29,219 目标价下调真不是因为人家业务能力不行 87 00:03:29,219 --> 00:03:33,159 纯粹是大环境的估值逻辑被彻底洗牌了 88 00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:34,979 那么到了第三部分 89 00:03:34,979 --> 00:03:37,180 咱们聊聊效率重心转移 90 00:03:37,180 --> 00:03:38,520 面对这种局面 91 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,169 企业是怎么硬核反击的 92 00:03:41,169 --> 00:03:44,610 面对华尔街翻脸不认人的估值逻辑 93 00:03:44,610 --> 00:03:47,310 各大软件巨头破媒坐以待毙 94 00:03:47,310 --> 00:03:50,099 他们正在疯狂地调整战略方向 95 00:03:50,099 --> 00:03:54,379 这里咱们还得翻译一个华尔街的行话叫r i if 96 00:03:54,379 --> 00:03:59,319 也就是咱们常说的裁员或者是永久性的人员缩减 97 00:03:59,319 --> 00:04:01,479 在这场效率保卫战里 98 00:04:01,479 --> 00:04:04,110 这可是大家最常用的一把尖刀 99 00:04:04,110 --> 00:04:05,750 目的极其明确 100 00:04:05,750 --> 00:04:07,210 横砍运用费用 101 00:04:07,210 --> 00:04:08,930 死死保住利润率 102 00:04:08,930 --> 00:04:13,069 既然资本市场不愿再为虚无缥缈的增长梦掏钱 103 00:04:13,069 --> 00:04:19,449 那公司就得靠真金白银的省钱来证明自己能把利润实打实的留在账上 104 00:04:19,449 --> 00:04:21,670 这种转型到底有多狠呢 105 00:04:21,670 --> 00:04:23,449 咱们看看陈善的数字 106 00:04:23,449 --> 00:04:24,918 30% 107 00:04:24,918 --> 00:04:26,759 这可不是闹着玩呢 108 00:04:26,759 --> 00:04:32,298 这是bill这家公司预计在2026财年第四季度前要砍掉的员工比例 109 00:04:32,298 --> 00:04:34,778 直接裁掉近1/3的人 110 00:04:34,778 --> 00:04:35,978 这足以看出 111 00:04:35,978 --> 00:04:37,259 为了提升效率 112 00:04:37,259 --> 00:04:39,838 现在这些软件大厂下手有多重 113 00:04:39,838 --> 00:04:41,180 决心有多大 114 00:04:41,180 --> 00:04:43,160 裁掉30%的人 115 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,029 财务上的效果绝对是立竿见影 116 00:04:46,029 --> 00:04:48,029 杰夫瑞的报告算了一笔账 117 00:04:48,029 --> 00:04:49,589 BIU这么一刀切下去 118 00:04:49,589 --> 00:04:51,310 每年能省下大便一点 119 00:04:51,310 --> 00:04:52,959 1亿美元的总成本 120 00:04:52,959 --> 00:04:53,879 当然了 121 00:04:53,879 --> 00:04:56,360 省下来的钱也不是全捂在被窝里 122 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,800 他们打算把其中两三千万拿出来 123 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,750 在2027财年重新投回核心业务 124 00:05:01,750 --> 00:05:04,389 这就是标准的断臂求生打法 125 00:05:04,389 --> 00:05:06,370 把低效部门的血抽出来 126 00:05:06,370 --> 00:05:07,930 输给真正能造血 127 00:05:07,930 --> 00:05:10,149 能带来现金流的主力军 128 00:05:10,149 --> 00:05:12,110 咱们再看个绝佳的例子 129 00:05:12,110 --> 00:05:13,910 vertex今年4月 130 00:05:13,910 --> 00:05:17,720 他们风风火火地推出了一个叫价值创造计划的行动 131 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,199 名字听着挺高大上 132 00:05:19,199 --> 00:05:20,759 其实目标极其直接 133 00:05:20,759 --> 00:05:25,850 要在2027年实打实的省出6000万到7000万美元的现金 134 00:05:25,850 --> 00:05:26,529 分析师 135 00:05:26,529 --> 00:05:28,009 看完直接拍手叫好 136 00:05:28,009 --> 00:05:33,189 把他们调整后的EBRDI利润率预测一口气拔高了425个基点 137 00:05:33,189 --> 00:05:35,730 你看现在的市场就是这么现实 138 00:05:35,730 --> 00:05:36,750 谁能省钱 139 00:05:36,750 --> 00:05:37,910 谁能抠出利润 140 00:05:37,910 --> 00:05:39,470 谁就能获得认可 141 00:05:39,470 --> 00:05:41,990 接着咱们进入第四部分 142 00:05:41,990 --> 00:05:44,589 透过财务数据看本质 143 00:05:44,589 --> 00:05:47,029 咱们拿CLAVIAL来解剖一下 144 00:05:47,029 --> 00:05:49,959 前面聊了那么多大趋势和狠招 145 00:05:49,959 --> 00:05:52,779 现在咱们跟着杰弗瑞的视角 146 00:05:52,779 --> 00:05:54,959 直接翻开CLAVIAL的账本 147 00:05:54,959 --> 00:05:56,439 深入研究一下 148 00:05:56,439 --> 00:06:02,180 虽然他也身处刚刚咱们说的估值倍数被疯狂压缩的恶劣环境里 149 00:06:02,180 --> 00:06:05,459 但你仔细看它的毛利润和营业利润率 150 00:06:05,459 --> 00:06:07,560 这几行不仅极其健康 151 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,680 而且是一路走高的 152 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:16,550 这妥妥地证明了公司本身的造血能力和运营底子其实是在不断变强的 153 00:06:16,550 --> 00:06:20,930 咱们把clove view未来的营收预期画成柱状图来看 154 00:06:20,930 --> 00:06:25,038 这种基本面和股价的撕裂感就更明显了 155 00:06:25,038 --> 00:06:25,658 你看啊 156 00:06:25,658 --> 00:06:28,279 从二五财年到二七财年 157 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,000 完全是稳扎打稳 158 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,480 步步高升的节奏 159 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,879 预计二七财年都要逼近18亿美元了 160 00:06:34,879 --> 00:06:39,339 这怎么看都不像是一个因为卖不动货而被看衰的业务吧 161 00:06:39,339 --> 00:06:43,100 所以他目标价从29美元掉到25美元 162 00:06:43,100 --> 00:06:45,639 罪魁祸首根本不是他自己不努力 163 00:06:45,639 --> 00:06:48,658 完全就是宏观估值大环境惹的祸 164 00:06:48,658 --> 00:06:50,238 最后第五部分 165 00:06:50,238 --> 00:06:52,699 软件行业的新生存法则 166 00:06:52,699 --> 00:06:55,300 盘完前面的数据和逻辑 167 00:06:55,300 --> 00:06:59,158 咱们必须得认清整个板块现在的新现实了 168 00:06:59,158 --> 00:07:00,319 核心就一句 169 00:07:00,319 --> 00:07:01,879 效率和现金流 170 00:07:01,879 --> 00:07:03,779 现在才是真正的王道 171 00:07:03,779 --> 00:07:06,459 在眼下这个宏观经济环境里 172 00:07:06,459 --> 00:07:09,040 你故事讲的再天花乱坠都没用 173 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:10,810 能不能生出现金流 174 00:07:10,810 --> 00:07:12,670 能不能保住利润率 175 00:07:12,670 --> 00:07:16,170 才是你抵御估值压缩唯一的护城河 176 00:07:16,170 --> 00:07:20,829 这也就解释了之前提到的rin central凭什么能逆天改命 177 00:07:20,829 --> 00:07:22,089 上调目标价 178 00:07:22,089 --> 00:07:24,490 杰弗瑞报告里写的明明白白 179 00:07:24,490 --> 00:07:27,050 因为人家一直在默默减少债务 180 00:07:27,050 --> 00:07:28,269 利息支出少了 181 00:07:28,269 --> 00:07:30,329 每股收益自然就上去了 182 00:07:30,329 --> 00:07:31,189 说到底 183 00:07:31,189 --> 00:07:36,129 踏踏实实的财务底线才是今天资本市场里最硬的硬通货 184 00:07:36,129 --> 00:07:40,839 咱们顺着这条时间轴回顾一下软件股估值逻辑的剧烈变迁 185 00:07:40,839 --> 00:07:44,480 过去呢大家信奉的是不惜一切代价换增长 186 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:45,980 哪怕你疯狂烧钱 187 00:07:45,980 --> 00:07:47,360 只要营收跑得够快 188 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,470 市场照样给你天价估值 189 00:07:49,470 --> 00:07:52,069 但现在我们正死死卡在中间 190 00:07:52,069 --> 00:07:55,720 这个阶段估值倍数压缩和市场重新定价 191 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,480 资本彻底失去了那种盲目的狂热 192 00:07:58,480 --> 00:07:59,459 往后看呢 193 00:07:59,459 --> 00:08:00,259 毫无疑问 194 00:08:00,259 --> 00:08:04,899 估值的锚点已经彻底焊死在严格的盈利能力和资本效率上了 195 00:08:04,899 --> 00:08:06,019 这不是选择题 196 00:08:06,019 --> 00:08:08,528 这是生存的必答题好了 197 00:08:08,528 --> 00:08:13,329 这就引出了咱们今天最后的也是留给大家思考的一个灵魂拷问 198 00:08:13,329 --> 00:08:16,089 在这个估值倍数全面缩水的时代 199 00:08:16,089 --> 00:08:19,389 当年风靡一时的不惜一切代价换增长模式 200 00:08:19,389 --> 00:08:21,668 是不是真的已经彻底死亡了 201 00:08:21,668 --> 00:08:26,728 当硅谷那些改变世界的梦想要直面华尔街冷冰冰的算盘时 202 00:08:26,728 --> 00:08:30,250 下一步的科技投资逻辑到底会如何重构 203 00:08:30,250 --> 00:08:34,490 希望今天的这期深度梳理能帮你在看现在的科技股行情时 204 00:08:34,490 --> 00:08:35,929 多一个不同的视角 205 00:08:35,929 --> 00:08:37,490 感谢大家的陪伴与收看 206 00:08:37,490 --> 00:08:39,019 咱们下期接着聊
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