我的正股和期权投资框架

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大家好

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今天我想用10分钟分享一套我长期在用

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也在不断打磨的投资框架

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这套框架只回答三个问题

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第一买什么

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由基本面分析来回答

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第二什么价格什么时候买

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由技术面分析来回答

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第三买入之后如何持续创造额外收益和现金流

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由期权策略来回答

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用一句话概括就是

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基本面决定方向

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技术面决定时机

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弃权提取短期现金流

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三者缺一不可

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在进入正题之前

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我们先把整个框架的轮廓描出来

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第一个问题买什么

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答案来自基本面分析

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核心是判断产品的长期重要性

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以及公司在产业链中的地位

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第二个问题

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什么价格什么时候买

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答案来自技术面分析

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在基本面已经确认没问题的前提下

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挑一个赔率更好的入场区域

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第三个问题

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买入前后如何持续创造收益

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这里用到的是现金担保卖看跌期权

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也就是CSP以及持股卖看涨期权

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也就是cc这两个工具

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把等待和持有的时间也变成了有现金流的资产

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接下来我们逐一展开

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要理解后面的策略

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必须先把期权最基础的两个角色讲清楚

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第一个角色是买方

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也叫浪方

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买方支付权利金换来的是一种权利

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最大亏损就是已经付出去的权利金收益

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理论上没有上限

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买方通常预期市场会发生比较大的波动

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第二个角色是卖方

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也叫顺方

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卖方收取权利金

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但同时承担一种义务

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卖方最大的收益就是那笔权利金亏损

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在裸卖的情况下

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理论上可以非常大

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所以卖方必须用现金或正股来覆盖风险

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卖方通常预期波动有限

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时间站在自己这边

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在我的框架里

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主要用的是两种卖方策略

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一是用现金做担保的

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卖看跌期权

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也就是CSP

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二是持有正股之后卖看涨期权

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也就是cc期权

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只有两种合约

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看涨期权和看跌期权

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每种都可以买或者卖

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加起来就是四种基本动作

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第一种买看涨期权立场是看大涨

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付出权利金换来

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在到期前按行权价买入股票的权利

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盈亏特征是上不封顶

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最多亏掉权利金

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用一句话说就是用小钱博大涨

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第二种买看跌期权立场是看大跌

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或者为持仓做对冲

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付出权利金换来按行权价卖出股票的权利

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下行收益丰厚

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最多亏掉权利金

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用一句话说就是给持仓买保险

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第三种卖看涨期权

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我实际做的是持股卖看涨

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也就是cover call

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在持有100股正股的基础上收取权利金

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承担在股价超过行权价时

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以该价格卖出股票的义务

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等于给手里的股票挂了一个带奖金的限价卖单

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第四种卖看跌期权

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我实际做的是现金担保

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卖看跌

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也就是cash secure put

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预留等额现金收取权利金

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承担在股价跌破行权价时

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以该价格买入股票的义务

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等于给自己挂了一个带奖金的限价买单

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后两种策略就是我整套框架的收益增强核心

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很多人一上来就看K线

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各种技术指标

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我认为这个顺序是错的

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不知道为什么要持有一家公司

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技术指标在花少也没有任何意义

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所以基本面试第一关我只问两个问题

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第一个问题

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这个产品未来重要吗

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具体来说他解决的需求是否长期存在

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而且越来越关键

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未来一到5年

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这个产品会不可或缺

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还是可有可无

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举几个例子

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先进制程半导体

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硅光子

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人工智能

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算力

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电网基础设施

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这些都属于需求端的长期结构性变量

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第二个问题

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这家公司在产业链中的位置如何

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他是卡脖子的关键环节

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还是随时可以被替代的

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中间商有没有护城河

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比如技术壁垒

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客户绑定规模效应或者专利

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毛利率

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自由现金流投入

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资本回报率能不能撑得起他讲的商业故事

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两个问题都通过进入候选池

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只有进了候选池的标的

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才值得用技术面去讨论价格和时机

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这个顺序绝对不能反基本面告诉我

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这家公司值得拥有

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但好公司不等于随时都是好价格

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技术面的作用是帮我在基本面已经确认

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没问题的前提下

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挑一个赔率更好的位置入场

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而不是用来预测股价的

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我关注四个维度非常朴素

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第一趋势与均线结构

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看日线周线级别的趋势是否健康

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避免在明显的下降通道中去接飞刀

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50日线和200日线的位置和方向很重要

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第二关键支撑位

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前期成交密集区

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重要均线以及缺口位置

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这些是大概率会停一下的地方

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适合作为目标买入区域

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第三隐含波动率水平

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当隐含波动率偏高的时候

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卖七全能收到更丰厚的权利金

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是做CSP更好的时机

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第四量价配合

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放量突破和缩量回踩给我不同的信号

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权重用来确认或过滤入场时机

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现在把前面的分析整合成一个具体动作

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用现金担保卖看跌期权

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在心仪的价位买入想长期持有的标的

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操作路径分四步

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第一步

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从后选区挑一只标的

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基本面已经过关

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第二步

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用技术面定一个自己愿意买入的目标价格

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第三步卖出行全价接近目标价的看跌期权

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用等额现金做担保

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第四步接受两种结局结局

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A股价没有跌破型全价期权到期作废

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我白收一笔权利金

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继续滚动下一轮CSP结局

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B股价跌破行权价

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期权被行权

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我以本来就想要的价格拿到筹码

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而且实际买入成本还要扣掉已经收到的权利金

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买入价比目标价还要更低

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关键心法

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无论被不被行权

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我都愿意接受结果

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这也是CSP能长期跑下去的前提

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卖期权的标的必须是你本来就想拥有的好公司

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delta是判断被行权概率的近似指标

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选择不同的delta

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代表你在要钱和要货之间做取舍

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如果主要目标是稳定赚权利金

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不太希望被行权

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那就选delta

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0.15到0.25的区间

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行权价离现价较远

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被行权概率低

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权利金相对少一些

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但胜率高

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如果真的想要拿到这只股票的筹码

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希望被行权

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那就选delta

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0.3到0.45的区间行权价更贴近现价

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被行权概率显著提高

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收到的权利金也更丰厚

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简单说

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想要钱就往左选

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想要货就往右选

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搞清楚自己的真实意图再定delta

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不要被高权利金诱惑而偏离本意

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被行权拿到100股之后

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策略切换到持股卖看涨期权

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也就是cc操作路径同样是三步

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第一步

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选一个即使被叫走也感到满意的卖出价格

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第二步卖出该行全价的看涨期权

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收取权利金

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第三步同样接受两种结局

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结局A股价没有涨过行权价

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期权作废

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白收一笔权利金

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下周继续滚动结局

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B股价涨过型

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全价被叫走

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已预设的满溢价格落袋

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加上权利金

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总收益也很不错

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然后回到候选池

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开启下一轮CSP闭环

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重新启动

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delta的选择同样有讲究

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0.15到0.25

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适合主打多收权利金

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少被叫走的情形

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如果已经决定在某个价位兑现

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就选更高的delta

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让被叫走变成大概率事件

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这时候cc就等于一个带奖金的限价卖单

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把整套流程串成一个完整的循环

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从基本面筛选开始

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找出候选池里值得长期拥有的标的

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然后用技术面定位找到赔率更好的入场区域

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接着卖出现金担保

228
00:09:12,460 --> 00:09:13,379
看低期权

229
00:09:13,379 --> 00:09:15,049
也就是CSP

230
00:09:15,049 --> 00:09:16,610
如果没有被行权

231
00:09:16,610 --> 00:09:17,590
收权利金

232
00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:18,529
继续滚动

233
00:09:18,529 --> 00:09:21,690
CSP如果被行权拿到正股

234
00:09:21,690 --> 00:09:24,049
切换到持股卖看涨期权

235
00:09:24,049 --> 00:09:27,240
也就是cc如果没有被叫走

236
00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,179
收权利金继续滚动

237
00:09:29,179 --> 00:09:31,139
cc如果被叫走

238
00:09:31,139 --> 00:09:33,539
以满溢价落袋加上权力金

239
00:09:33,539 --> 00:09:36,879
然后回到候选池重启下一轮

240
00:09:36,879 --> 00:09:39,559
这个闭环最迷人的地方就在于

241
00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:40,980
无论市场震荡

242
00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:42,639
下跌还是上涨

243
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:45,539
每一步都有一个我也愿意接受的结局

244
00:09:45,539 --> 00:09:48,200
而不是被动等待行情

245
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,159
最后强调三条安全前提

246
00:09:51,159 --> 00:09:54,799
这三条都成立整套策略才安全

247
00:09:54,799 --> 00:09:55,679
第一条

248
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,919
CSP必须卖在你本来就想长期拥有的好公司上

249
00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:04,328
不是哪个权利金高就卖哪个标的的质量是底线

250
00:10:04,328 --> 00:10:05,229
第二条

251
00:10:05,229 --> 00:10:09,669
cc必须卖在你本来就愿意卖出的价位上被叫走

252
00:10:09,669 --> 00:10:12,669
这件事必须是你也满意的结局

253
00:10:12,669 --> 00:10:15,850
不能让自己在被叫走之后感到后悔

254
00:10:15,850 --> 00:10:16,909
第三条

255
00:10:16,909 --> 00:10:20,419
仓位和delta要匹配你真实的持有意愿

256
00:10:20,419 --> 00:10:22,139
想要钱还是想要货

257
00:10:22,139 --> 00:10:23,980
先想清楚再定参数

258
00:10:23,980 --> 00:10:28,460
不要被高权利金数字诱惑而偏离自己的本意

259
00:10:28,460 --> 00:10:31,799
用一句话总结我的投资理念

260
00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:33,600
基本面决定买什么

261
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,720
技术面决定何时买期权

262
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:39,419
在持有和等待的过程中持续产生现金流

263
00:10:39,419 --> 00:10:41,139
谢谢大家

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