BV1YXZSBVEQj · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,700 --> 00:00:01,540 Hi everyone 2 00:00:01,540 --> 00:00:02,680 I'm albrooks 3 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:07,650 Louis asked me to mention the upcoming workshop in macaw in june 4 00:00:07,650 --> 00:00:09,050 I hope to see as many of you 5 00:00:09,050 --> 00:00:11,650 There as possible and in addition 6 00:00:11,650 --> 00:00:13,369 This is the start of the chinese new year 7 00:00:13,369 --> 00:00:14,130 And i want to wish 8 00:00:14,130 --> 00:00:15,050 All of you in your 9 00:00:15,050 --> 00:00:18,550 Family's happiness health and great trading profits 10 00:00:18,550 --> 00:00:20,210 I hope to see you in june 11 00:00:20,210 --> 00:00:21,710 Thank you 12 00:00:22,439 --> 00:00:23,199 大家好 13 00:00:23,199 --> 00:00:26,199 现在是东部时间的早上呃 14 00:00:26,199 --> 00:00:27,559 9.55分 15 00:00:27,559 --> 00:00:30,199 我正在交易微软的看涨期权 16 00:00:30,199 --> 00:00:32,679 我现在挂了一个限价买单 17 00:00:32,679 --> 00:00:34,090 挂在500块钱 18 00:00:34,090 --> 00:00:35,939 看一下能不能成交 19 00:00:35,939 --> 00:00:38,659 今天是农历大年初一 20 00:00:38,659 --> 00:00:42,530 我特地请l books录了一个简短的拜年视频 21 00:00:42,530 --> 00:00:46,289 祝全球各地的华人交易者新春愉快 22 00:00:46,289 --> 00:00:49,729 本来我是想在春节做一期非常重要的节目 23 00:00:49,729 --> 00:00:52,128 来讲一讲如何靠交易为生 24 00:00:52,128 --> 00:00:53,709 但是做不完了 25 00:00:53,709 --> 00:00:56,168 再过八九个小时我就要带家人 26 00:00:56,168 --> 00:00:58,439 还有好多亲戚出国旅游 27 00:00:58,439 --> 00:01:01,880 所有的事情都是我来安排太多东西了 28 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,219 那最近我一直在关注微软 29 00:01:04,219 --> 00:01:07,840 然后我觉得呃现在去建立一个观察仓位 30 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,638 稍微买一点尝试去做多是合理的 31 00:01:10,638 --> 00:01:13,319 所以我们来录一个边做边讲试试看 32 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:15,769 OK成交了500美金 33 00:01:15,769 --> 00:01:17,329 每手合约买了27首 34 00:01:17,329 --> 00:01:19,450 正好很久没有讲美股了 35 00:01:19,450 --> 00:01:23,209 所以我们今天借这个机会来讲一讲 36 00:01:25,780 --> 00:01:27,859 这个是微软的日K线 37 00:01:27,859 --> 00:01:30,659 我们来看一个大概的整体的结构 38 00:01:30,659 --> 00:01:34,299 然后我说一说为什么最近我一直在关注它 39 00:01:34,870 --> 00:01:38,810 首先是因为它的价格经历了大幅的回调 40 00:01:38,810 --> 00:01:41,049 从这个地方开始嗯 41 00:01:41,049 --> 00:01:44,390 就是从去年10月底第二个高点 42 00:01:44,390 --> 00:01:46,769 从这个地方到呃 43 00:01:46,769 --> 00:01:49,688 前段时间大约是回调了29% 44 00:01:49,688 --> 00:01:51,420 将近30% 45 00:01:51,420 --> 00:01:53,299 那微软这个公司 46 00:01:53,299 --> 00:01:56,519 它上一次回调30%是什么时候 47 00:01:56,519 --> 00:01:59,519 我们看一下从这个地方到呃 48 00:01:59,519 --> 00:02:00,439 贸易战的时候 49 00:02:00,439 --> 00:02:02,079 回调了26%点几 50 00:02:03,159 --> 00:02:04,390 然后再往前 51 00:02:04,390 --> 00:02:06,670 这个是21年的熊市啊 52 00:02:06,670 --> 00:02:08,009 美股几乎跌了一整年 53 00:02:08,009 --> 00:02:09,110 这里回调的比较多 54 00:02:09,110 --> 00:02:10,509 回调了38% 55 00:02:10,509 --> 00:02:13,210 但是途中他经常有一些大的反弹 56 00:02:13,210 --> 00:02:15,210 然后这里这个是疫情啊 57 00:02:15,210 --> 00:02:17,110 我稍微放大一点 58 00:02:17,110 --> 00:02:18,110 疫情的时候 59 00:02:18,110 --> 00:02:19,430 因为流动性危机 60 00:02:19,430 --> 00:02:23,079 所以一个月就跌了30%左右 61 00:02:23,079 --> 00:02:26,679 那大家看到我这里画了一个很大的很宽的通道 62 00:02:26,679 --> 00:02:29,739 其实和我们刚才讲的本质上是一回事 63 00:02:29,739 --> 00:02:32,580 我这里稍微补充说一下呃 64 00:02:32,580 --> 00:02:34,379 大家用的通道也好 65 00:02:34,379 --> 00:02:36,860 然后还有什么趋势线 66 00:02:36,860 --> 00:02:38,580 还有均线 67 00:02:38,580 --> 00:02:42,149 包括有的交易者用布林带这种指标 68 00:02:42,149 --> 00:02:44,729 它们的参考原理其实是一样的 69 00:02:44,729 --> 00:02:45,568 就两个词 70 00:02:45,568 --> 00:02:46,568 一个是波动率 71 00:02:46,568 --> 00:02:48,370 还有一个是均值回归 72 00:02:48,370 --> 00:02:49,729 你可以说诶 73 00:02:49,729 --> 00:02:50,610 微软这支股票 74 00:02:50,610 --> 00:02:53,530 好像每次回调30%左右的时候 75 00:02:53,530 --> 00:02:55,370 就有人大量买入 76 00:02:55,370 --> 00:02:58,110 这个是从波动率的范围去思考 77 00:02:58,110 --> 00:03:00,479 那它体现在图表上 78 00:03:00,479 --> 00:03:04,280 直观的就是说哎好像每次跌到通道下沿啊 79 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:05,419 就有人买入 80 00:03:05,419 --> 00:03:08,330 每次涨到通道上沿就有人卖出 81 00:03:08,729 --> 00:03:10,270 所以这是大的背景 82 00:03:10,270 --> 00:03:13,599 为什么我在这个价格这个位置选择 83 00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:16,800 先用一点看涨期权来建立一个观察仓位 84 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,709 然后再决定要不要大量买入 85 00:03:18,709 --> 00:03:20,669 那么买入的理由有了 86 00:03:20,669 --> 00:03:22,549 接下来就是到底怎么入场 87 00:03:22,549 --> 00:03:23,109 大家看到 88 00:03:23,109 --> 00:03:24,588 我这里把400块钱 89 00:03:24,588 --> 00:03:26,909 这个重要的整数位标记出来了 90 00:03:26,909 --> 00:03:29,750 早盘如果他是呃强势的突破 91 00:03:29,750 --> 00:03:31,189 能够站在400上方 92 00:03:31,189 --> 00:03:32,990 那么我就是突破买入 93 00:03:32,990 --> 00:03:34,509 但是突破失败了 94 00:03:34,509 --> 00:03:36,669 总体来说仍然是下降趋势 95 00:03:36,669 --> 00:03:38,389 又没有强势的突破 96 00:03:38,389 --> 00:03:41,069 那你只能尽可能低的逢低买入 97 00:03:41,069 --> 00:03:42,919 如果一定要做多的话 98 00:03:42,919 --> 00:03:43,240 呃 99 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,699 第一根K线看起来有非常不错的买压 100 00:03:45,699 --> 00:03:47,699 所以假设在这个低点下方 101 00:03:47,699 --> 00:03:49,000 更多人是去买入 102 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:50,530 而不是再去卖出了 103 00:03:50,530 --> 00:03:53,439 所以我在这个地方去挂单 104 00:03:53,879 --> 00:03:57,039 订单是09:56分成交的 105 00:03:57,039 --> 00:03:58,960 我们从一分钟图上看一看 106 00:04:01,549 --> 00:04:03,269 反正在这个区域运气比较好 107 00:04:03,269 --> 00:04:04,468 正好买在低位 108 00:04:04,468 --> 00:04:06,500 而且成交了 109 00:04:06,860 --> 00:04:09,400 现在应该有一点点赚钱啊 110 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:10,280 浮盈800 111 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,469 不过这个我打算至少持有观察一两个礼拜 112 00:04:14,469 --> 00:04:17,629 所以日内的这些波动我就没有那么在乎啊 113 00:04:17,629 --> 00:04:19,689 就几乎不用去看它 114 00:04:19,889 --> 00:04:21,649 所以所谓的入场 115 00:04:21,649 --> 00:04:24,990 其实就是在关键的支撑或者阻力 116 00:04:24,990 --> 00:04:26,250 你找一个理由 117 00:04:26,250 --> 00:04:28,000 找一个方式去开仓 118 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,199 要么等待强势的突破去追 119 00:04:30,199 --> 00:04:33,399 要么等待好的反转结构和信号K 120 00:04:33,399 --> 00:04:35,879 要么就是尽可能逢低买入 121 00:04:35,879 --> 00:04:37,418 逢高卖出 122 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,439 我们上一次讲美股 123 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:43,879 还是上一次 124 00:04:43,879 --> 00:04:45,279 我记得我还是直播讲的 125 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,399 在呃9月底10月初的时候 126 00:04:47,399 --> 00:04:49,259 这根大阴线是10月9号 127 00:04:49,259 --> 00:04:51,420 我是在这个地方我自己清仓了 128 00:04:51,420 --> 00:04:53,509 然后觉得有必要提醒大家啊 129 00:04:53,509 --> 00:04:54,910 美股有回调的风险 130 00:04:54,910 --> 00:04:56,790 当然了呃没有大幅下跌 131 00:04:56,790 --> 00:04:59,240 但是一直横盘到现在呃 132 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,040 指数大盘横盘 133 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,639 很多个股却跌的非常的惨啊 134 00:05:03,639 --> 00:05:06,750 比如我们今天看到的微软啊 135 00:05:06,750 --> 00:05:08,269 然后还有这个oracle 136 00:05:08,269 --> 00:05:10,449 甲骨文额跌了好多 137 00:05:10,449 --> 00:05:11,949 跌了60%了 138 00:05:11,949 --> 00:05:13,110 非常的恐怖 139 00:05:13,110 --> 00:05:15,490 英伟达也是横盘嗯 140 00:05:15,490 --> 00:05:18,439 talent teer也是有一些下跌 141 00:05:18,879 --> 00:05:20,600 博通也是横盘 142 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,730 然后嗯特斯拉也是横盘 143 00:05:25,009 --> 00:05:28,050 基本上都啊除了这个少部分股票 144 00:05:28,050 --> 00:05:29,110 台积电啊 145 00:05:29,110 --> 00:05:30,850 还是在继续上涨趋势 146 00:05:30,850 --> 00:05:34,699 然后还有呃美光科技啊 147 00:05:34,699 --> 00:05:35,418 涨的很好 148 00:05:35,418 --> 00:05:37,579 就除了这少部分的呃 149 00:05:37,579 --> 00:05:38,478 芯片股 150 00:05:38,478 --> 00:05:40,218 大部分的都跌的非常多 151 00:05:40,218 --> 00:05:41,418 尤其是小盘股啊 152 00:05:41,418 --> 00:05:44,189 小盘股额跌的很恐怖了 153 00:05:44,189 --> 00:05:46,290 所以我之前讲过啊 154 00:05:46,290 --> 00:05:49,019 就是没有必要去做小盘股 155 00:05:49,459 --> 00:05:52,959 而且如果你观察它是什么时候开始下跌的话 156 00:05:52,959 --> 00:05:55,779 看这个就是10月初的时候啊 157 00:05:55,779 --> 00:05:59,120 这些小盘股都开始了下降趋势 158 00:06:00,439 --> 00:06:01,980 这个是10月15号 159 00:06:01,980 --> 00:06:03,439 16号 160 00:06:05,139 --> 00:06:10,620 然后这个10月1号最高点一直跌到现在 161 00:06:10,620 --> 00:06:11,920 25块钱 162 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:13,639 跌到现在只有八块钱 163 00:06:13,639 --> 00:06:15,019 除了微软之外 164 00:06:15,019 --> 00:06:19,449 我也关注oracle甲骨文公司的嗯机会 165 00:06:19,449 --> 00:06:21,689 你们看这一天跳空高开 166 00:06:21,689 --> 00:06:24,509 财报之后涨了40%多 167 00:06:24,509 --> 00:06:28,389 然后他的老板短暂的可能持续了几个小时 168 00:06:28,389 --> 00:06:32,100 或者几天身价超过马斯克成为全球首富 169 00:06:32,100 --> 00:06:34,720 现在呢从340多块钱 170 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,899 最低跌到130多 171 00:06:36,899 --> 00:06:39,970 60%夸张 172 00:06:39,970 --> 00:06:42,129 还有一个adobe 173 00:06:42,129 --> 00:06:46,120 我把他的这个支撑区域我画出来再关注 174 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,240 大家看到每次跌到这个价格之前 175 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,000 在这个价格大幅上涨 176 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,110 多头大量的买入买入 177 00:06:53,110 --> 00:06:55,449 然后回调到这里再次大量买入 178 00:06:55,449 --> 00:06:57,019 现在又到这个区域了 179 00:06:57,019 --> 00:06:59,040 会不会再次买入 180 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:00,819 但是它相对来说不好啊 181 00:07:00,819 --> 00:07:03,959 就是跟微软和甲骨文没有办法比 182 00:07:03,959 --> 00:07:06,420 不过也算是大企业吧 183 00:07:06,420 --> 00:07:09,639 呃那个PHOTOSHOP女生拍照用的P图 184 00:07:09,639 --> 00:07:11,579 就是这个公司搞出来的 185 00:07:11,579 --> 00:07:13,040 市值也不低啊 186 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,680 市值现在有1000多亿美金之前更高一些 187 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,319 他一定要等一个更好的机会啊 188 00:07:20,319 --> 00:07:23,339 至少有一个第二次反转才能去做多 189 00:07:23,339 --> 00:07:25,750 不然的话不好买的这个股票 190 00:07:25,750 --> 00:07:30,230 尤其是他所属的板块叫s a a s software 191 00:07:30,230 --> 00:07:31,329 As a service 192 00:07:31,329 --> 00:07:32,129 这一类 193 00:07:32,129 --> 00:07:34,490 因为被人工智能挑战了啊 194 00:07:34,490 --> 00:07:37,550 所以这些公司全都跌的很厉害 195 00:07:37,550 --> 00:07:39,209 下降通道太窄了 196 00:07:39,209 --> 00:07:41,470 所以第一次反转肯定是不能做的 197 00:07:41,470 --> 00:07:45,480 如果有第二次反转机会的话再说 198 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,600 我其实倾向于不去讲股票 199 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:49,720 要讲的话 200 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:50,480 为了避嫌 201 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,439 我也只讲世界级的大公司 202 00:07:53,439 --> 00:07:55,480 所以它不是什么投资建议 203 00:07:57,519 --> 00:08:01,139 我们来看一下各大机构给微软的估值 204 00:08:01,139 --> 00:08:04,480 五百五十六百五十六百三十五 205 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,720 美国银行给的是最低的520 206 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,240 然后高盛是600 207 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,449 那微软现在只有400块钱嗯 208 00:08:11,449 --> 00:08:13,870 这些估值基本都在500多600多 209 00:08:13,870 --> 00:08:16,910 所以如果要看基本面的话 210 00:08:16,910 --> 00:08:19,509 我觉得这是可以作为一个参考 211 00:08:19,509 --> 00:08:22,529 然后甲骨文的话都是200多 212 00:08:22,529 --> 00:08:24,949 甲骨文现在是150块钱 213 00:08:24,949 --> 00:08:28,930 所以离估值仍然是有一定的空间呃 214 00:08:28,930 --> 00:08:31,689 adobe分歧好像就比较大一点 215 00:08:31,689 --> 00:08:32,950 价格分歧很大 216 00:08:32,950 --> 00:08:34,690 而且时间都比较久远 217 00:08:34,690 --> 00:08:37,330 都至少隔了两三个月了呃 218 00:08:37,330 --> 00:08:39,690 最近更新也是给出最低估值的 219 00:08:39,690 --> 00:08:42,399 就是高盛290 220 00:08:42,399 --> 00:08:45,120 他现在价格都260了嗯 221 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,500 所以离得已经比较近了 222 00:08:47,500 --> 00:08:51,399 然后上面这几家机构也可能随时更新 223 00:08:51,399 --> 00:08:53,059 把它的评级下调 224 00:08:53,059 --> 00:08:56,639 所以相比微软和甲骨文adobe 225 00:08:56,639 --> 00:08:58,559 我觉得不管从价格行为上 226 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,659 还是从基本面都没有那么好 227 00:09:01,659 --> 00:09:05,870 那现在的价格大幅低于各大机构的估值 228 00:09:05,870 --> 00:09:08,309 是不是代表它就一定会上涨 229 00:09:08,309 --> 00:09:11,269 是不是代表这就是千载难逢的买入的 230 00:09:11,269 --> 00:09:12,309 绝佳的机会 231 00:09:12,309 --> 00:09:13,450 其实不一定的 232 00:09:13,450 --> 00:09:14,149 我跟大家讲 233 00:09:14,149 --> 00:09:17,889 为什么这个是美国原油期货 234 00:09:17,889 --> 00:09:19,889 2020年5月份的合约 235 00:09:19,889 --> 00:09:21,330 因为很久以前了 236 00:09:21,330 --> 00:09:22,870 所以我去找历史图形 237 00:09:22,870 --> 00:09:25,649 这个是美式K线图呃 238 00:09:25,649 --> 00:09:26,870 这个东西是开盘价 239 00:09:26,870 --> 00:09:29,090 然后下面右边这个是收盘价 240 00:09:29,090 --> 00:09:32,440 当天十几块20块不到开盘 241 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,399 然后一度跌到-40多块钱 242 00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:36,460 这个零下了 243 00:09:36,460 --> 00:09:38,529 收盘在-40块钱 244 00:09:38,529 --> 00:09:39,490 也就是说 245 00:09:39,490 --> 00:09:41,210 如果你想买一桶原油 246 00:09:41,210 --> 00:09:42,750 我非但不收你钱 247 00:09:42,750 --> 00:09:45,509 我还倒贴你40多块美金 248 00:09:45,509 --> 00:09:46,669 你每买一桶原油 249 00:09:46,669 --> 00:09:48,389 我就倒贴你40美金 250 00:09:48,389 --> 00:09:51,490 如果对商品期货不了解的朋友 251 00:09:51,490 --> 00:09:54,419 其实很难想象为什么会出现这种情况 252 00:09:54,419 --> 00:09:57,460 这个其实是我给专题课准备的课件 253 00:09:57,460 --> 00:09:59,779 到时候再详细的跟大家讲 254 00:09:59,779 --> 00:10:03,960 期货里面为什么价格有时候甚至可以跌到负数 255 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,720 在价格跌到五美金十美金一桶的时候 256 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:09,720 你会觉得那肯定可以买入 257 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:10,159 做多 258 00:10:10,159 --> 00:10:11,019 非常的合理 259 00:10:11,019 --> 00:10:13,720 原油的价格不可能只有五美金十美金一桶 260 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:14,629 那肯定会涨 261 00:10:14,629 --> 00:10:16,110 那你判断的对不对呢 262 00:10:16,110 --> 00:10:17,070 完全正确 263 00:10:17,070 --> 00:10:19,870 你看第二天它就反弹到十几块钱 264 00:10:19,870 --> 00:10:21,519 然后后面还继续上涨 265 00:10:21,519 --> 00:10:23,720 二十三十四十一直往上涨 266 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,519 所以你的判断完全正确 267 00:10:25,519 --> 00:10:27,360 但问题是在上涨之前 268 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,099 它先跌到-40块钱 269 00:10:29,099 --> 00:10:31,259 在这个过程中你早就爆仓了 270 00:10:31,259 --> 00:10:32,519 你的所有的钱都亏完了 271 00:10:32,519 --> 00:10:33,678 被强制平仓了 272 00:10:33,678 --> 00:10:34,778 后面再怎么涨 273 00:10:34,778 --> 00:10:36,139 你判断再怎么正确 274 00:10:36,139 --> 00:10:37,500 跟你都没关系了 275 00:10:37,500 --> 00:10:39,639 还有经典的GME事件 276 00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:42,039 他从五美金开始暴涨 277 00:10:42,039 --> 00:10:44,519 实际上几个月之前他只有一块多 278 00:10:44,519 --> 00:10:47,190 所以到这里他已经翻了好几倍了 279 00:10:47,190 --> 00:10:50,389 然后几天时间从五块钱涨到16块 280 00:10:50,389 --> 00:10:51,190 翻了三倍多 281 00:10:51,190 --> 00:10:52,990 那很多人觉得这就是垃圾股吗 282 00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:55,120 炒作的嘛最多就值十块钱 283 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:55,799 对不对 284 00:10:55,799 --> 00:10:56,740 完全正确 285 00:10:56,740 --> 00:10:58,960 但是在它跌到十块钱之前 286 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,580 它先涨到120块 287 00:11:00,580 --> 00:11:02,679 这里我只能用对数坐标啊 288 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,240 呃如果用普通坐标的话 289 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,159 就根本看不清这些K线 290 00:11:06,159 --> 00:11:09,480 所以价格也许最终是会回归到基本面 291 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,419 但是在这之前它可以大幅的偏移 292 00:11:12,419 --> 00:11:15,839 所以说所有还没有盈利的交易者 293 00:11:15,839 --> 00:11:18,818 最好都不要用限价单去做交易 294 00:11:18,818 --> 00:11:20,178 不要说在这里买入 295 00:11:20,178 --> 00:11:22,179 我逢低再加仓再加仓 296 00:11:22,179 --> 00:11:23,840 一旦遇到一些什么事件 297 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,740 你的账户就会遇到毁灭性的亏损 298 00:11:26,740 --> 00:11:29,980 而你是没有能力去处理这种情况的 299 00:11:29,980 --> 00:11:31,620 所以最好的做法就是 300 00:11:31,620 --> 00:11:35,269 首先就不要把自己放在这种危险的情况之中 301 00:11:35,269 --> 00:11:37,570 如果一定要用限价单入场 302 00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:39,190 应该遵循第一个 303 00:11:39,190 --> 00:11:40,809 既然你是逢低买入 304 00:11:40,809 --> 00:11:44,500 那么你买入的价格越低越好 305 00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:46,240 就是宁愿买不到 306 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,720 也不要买得太高 307 00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:50,960 今天早晨微软的入场 308 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:52,700 我觉得是一个很好的模范 309 00:11:52,700 --> 00:11:57,610 第一根K线它其实是大跌大涨这样一个十字星 310 00:11:57,610 --> 00:12:00,169 所以我需要看到更强势的大阳线 311 00:12:00,169 --> 00:12:02,789 收在最高站稳在400上方 312 00:12:02,789 --> 00:12:04,960 我才愿意去追涨 313 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,620 但他不但没有突破 314 00:12:06,620 --> 00:12:09,500 反而啊如果你看到第一根K线去做多 315 00:12:09,500 --> 00:12:10,960 反而要被套牢亏钱 316 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:12,990 所以它仍然是下降趋势啊 317 00:12:12,990 --> 00:12:14,590 最多最多是震荡区间 318 00:12:14,590 --> 00:12:15,789 如果它继续下跌的话 319 00:12:15,789 --> 00:12:16,850 我毫不意外 320 00:12:16,850 --> 00:12:19,529 所以要尽可能低的逢低去买 321 00:12:19,529 --> 00:12:21,230 刚才浮盈2000块钱 322 00:12:21,230 --> 00:12:24,370 现在只剩1350美金了 323 00:12:24,509 --> 00:12:26,450 第二个任何一笔交易 324 00:12:26,450 --> 00:12:29,610 首先要想清楚自己的风险是多少 325 00:12:29,610 --> 00:12:31,049 尤其是限价单 326 00:12:31,049 --> 00:12:33,370 因为突破单入场是有信号的 327 00:12:33,370 --> 00:12:34,690 它跌破信号的话 328 00:12:34,690 --> 00:12:35,570 你就止损离场 329 00:12:35,570 --> 00:12:36,490 这很简单 330 00:12:36,490 --> 00:12:38,970 但是限价单你在入场的一瞬间 331 00:12:38,970 --> 00:12:40,730 你是对抗这个趋势的 332 00:12:40,730 --> 00:12:43,139 那很容易一直对抗下去 333 00:12:43,139 --> 00:12:45,320 这个几乎每期节目都在讲 334 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:46,940 我实在是不想多讲了 335 00:12:46,940 --> 00:12:48,700 今天就稍微提一下 336 00:12:48,700 --> 00:12:50,179 回到这笔交易 337 00:12:50,179 --> 00:12:54,159 我们刚才讲了所有的这么多买入的理由啊 338 00:12:54,159 --> 00:12:55,759 比如每次跌30% 339 00:12:55,759 --> 00:12:56,820 都有人大量买入 340 00:12:56,820 --> 00:12:58,480 或者现在处在通道下沿 341 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,429 还有基本面的估值等等 342 00:13:00,429 --> 00:13:03,870 但如果美股大盘接下来回调十二十%呢 343 00:13:03,870 --> 00:13:06,970 那微软它完全有可能再跌个二十三十% 344 00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:08,429 如果发生这种事情的话 345 00:13:08,429 --> 00:13:10,230 我完全不会感到意外 346 00:13:10,230 --> 00:13:13,690 还有如果美国和伊朗突然开战的话 347 00:13:13,690 --> 00:13:15,889 很可能会有一个恐慌性的抛售 348 00:13:15,889 --> 00:13:17,710 过段时间再反弹回来 349 00:13:17,710 --> 00:13:19,389 甚至我们乱说啊 350 00:13:19,389 --> 00:13:22,250 就微软这家公司有没有可能就此没落了 351 00:13:22,250 --> 00:13:23,710 在人工智能的时代 352 00:13:23,710 --> 00:13:24,909 它逐渐被淘汰 353 00:13:24,909 --> 00:13:29,000 甚至整个人工智能这个泡沫是不是过于夸张 354 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:30,480 如果这个泡沫破裂 355 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:31,480 接下来美股 356 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,559 所有的科技股在接下来的几年都要下跌 357 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:36,500 但也不能因噎废食啊 358 00:13:36,500 --> 00:13:38,320 不是说因为有小概率事件 359 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:39,480 所以我就不交易 360 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:41,440 你只要控制好仓位和风险 361 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,120 看到机会大胆的做 362 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,039 那就完全没有问题啊 363 00:13:45,039 --> 00:13:46,480 所以关键是每一笔交易 364 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,309 想清楚自己到底愿意承担多少风险 365 00:13:50,629 --> 00:13:51,230 看一下 366 00:13:51,230 --> 00:13:53,590 现在只剩1000美金了 367 00:13:53,590 --> 00:13:54,110 哦对了 368 00:13:54,110 --> 00:13:55,230 关于期权交易 369 00:13:55,230 --> 00:13:56,649 日内交易嗯 370 00:13:56,649 --> 00:13:57,788 在早盘的时候 371 00:13:57,788 --> 00:13:58,788 刚开盘的时候 372 00:13:58,788 --> 00:14:01,349 期权的隐含波动率是非常高的 373 00:14:01,349 --> 00:14:02,589 然后半个小时 374 00:14:02,589 --> 00:14:04,860 一个小时以后会逐渐降低 375 00:14:04,860 --> 00:14:07,100 这也是另外一个早盘 376 00:14:07,100 --> 00:14:08,460 除非是特别好的机会 377 00:14:08,460 --> 00:14:11,600 否则尽量不要去追涨或者追空的原因 378 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:16,330 因为除了你在价格上本身呃会开始亏钱之外 379 00:14:16,330 --> 00:14:17,529 他还有时间损耗 380 00:14:17,529 --> 00:14:20,009 还有就是隐含波动率的下降 381 00:14:20,009 --> 00:14:23,659 多个因素会让你期权贬值的更快 382 00:14:23,659 --> 00:14:26,720 卖出的一方反而可以利用这个特性 383 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:30,000 比如说在早盘价格冲高的时候去止盈 384 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,409 正好也是趁着它隐含波动率最高的时候 385 00:14:33,409 --> 00:14:36,850 那刚才提到这笔交易是目前的一个观察仓位 386 00:14:36,850 --> 00:14:37,809 一个尝试 387 00:14:37,809 --> 00:14:39,389 尤其接下来一个多礼拜 388 00:14:39,389 --> 00:14:40,590 我在旅游的时候 389 00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:43,049 没有办法去时刻去盯盘 390 00:14:43,049 --> 00:14:46,099 最差的结果也就是在接下来的两三个礼拜 391 00:14:46,099 --> 00:14:48,698 我把这个1万多的权利金亏完 392 00:14:48,698 --> 00:14:50,058 这就是最差的结果了 393 00:14:50,058 --> 00:14:53,090 运气好的话可以赚一点机票酒店钱 394 00:14:53,090 --> 00:14:56,980 但是现在我还没有到真正去呃 395 00:14:56,980 --> 00:14:58,659 大量投资微软的时候 396 00:14:58,659 --> 00:14:59,860 其中一个很重要的原因 397 00:14:59,860 --> 00:15:03,250 就是我对美股大盘没有特别大的信心呃 398 00:15:03,250 --> 00:15:05,549 如果他从高位开始回调的话 399 00:15:05,549 --> 00:15:09,659 所有的这些股票都会啊进一步的回调 400 00:15:09,659 --> 00:15:13,500 总之现在我比较关注微软和甲骨文 401 00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:15,220 这两家科技巨头的 402 00:15:15,220 --> 00:15:17,100 至少是反弹的机会 403 00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:19,779 再次祝各位新春快乐 404 00:15:19,779 --> 00:15:23,419 我们过一两个礼拜再见拜拜 405 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,320 喵啦喵啦
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