BV1YMXUBdEqH · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:03,160 你好 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:04,759 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:04,759 --> 00:00:07,419 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:07,419 --> 00:00:10,960 这是震荡区间的第五节课 5 00:00:13,919 --> 00:00:16,039 我会先讲解真空效应 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,640 市场是如何被吸引到支撑位和阻力位的 7 00:00:22,719 --> 00:00:25,839 然后我会讲解反其道而行之的逻辑 8 00:00:25,839 --> 00:00:31,039 如果在支撑或阻力附近出现非常强的突破 9 00:00:32,299 --> 00:00:36,100 那么压住突破失败更容易赚到钱 10 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,299 市场强势上涨 11 00:00:42,299 --> 00:00:46,259 但是看这里突然就被反转了 12 00:00:46,259 --> 00:00:48,420 即使是非常强势的上涨趋势 13 00:00:48,420 --> 00:00:50,659 也可以突然被反转 14 00:00:54,799 --> 00:00:57,500 如果这是日内的5分钟K线图 15 00:00:57,500 --> 00:01:00,359 尾盘发生这样的跳水 16 00:01:00,759 --> 00:01:03,909 然后你打开新闻新闻会告诉你 17 00:01:03,909 --> 00:01:06,670 市场突然下跌是因为某个新闻事件发生了 18 00:01:06,670 --> 00:01:10,829 他们尝试让你相信是新闻导致了一切 19 00:01:11,189 --> 00:01:14,489 他们尝试让你相信一切都是新闻引起的 20 00:01:14,489 --> 00:01:18,030 他们没有支撑和阻力的概念 21 00:01:18,780 --> 00:01:21,700 他们不知道市场在不断的寻找公平的价格 22 00:01:21,700 --> 00:01:23,620 新闻是他们赚钱的手段 23 00:01:23,620 --> 00:01:26,260 他们知道有好几百万人在看新闻 24 00:01:26,260 --> 00:01:27,900 所以他们要让你们相信 25 00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:30,299 新闻主导了一切涨跌 26 00:01:30,299 --> 00:01:32,700 事实上这很愚蠢 27 00:01:32,700 --> 00:01:34,379 这是完全错误的 28 00:01:34,379 --> 00:01:36,040 市场做出任何行为 29 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,040 都是因为交易者在寻找公平的价格 30 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:40,420 有时价格不得不走过头 31 00:01:40,420 --> 00:01:42,079 才知道合适的区域在哪里 32 00:01:42,079 --> 00:01:43,799 即我们所说的矫枉过正 33 00:01:43,799 --> 00:01:46,189 然后价格会突然反转 34 00:01:46,189 --> 00:01:47,989 一天24小时 35 00:01:47,989 --> 00:01:50,430 时刻都有新闻发生 36 00:01:51,989 --> 00:01:54,590 如果反转期间正好有某个新闻 37 00:01:54,590 --> 00:01:57,310 电视会告诉你是新闻导致了反转 38 00:01:57,310 --> 00:02:00,000 但事实上他们毫无关联 39 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,099 反转发生的原因是市场上涨去测试阻力 40 00:02:04,099 --> 00:02:08,439 然后知道在那个价格没有足够的买家愿意追高 41 00:02:08,439 --> 00:02:10,819 所以市场不得不快速下跌 42 00:02:10,819 --> 00:02:13,180 来找到更多愿意买入的人 43 00:02:13,180 --> 00:02:16,759 新闻记者不理解支撑和阻力 44 00:02:18,300 --> 00:02:20,800 他们不理解市场如何运作 45 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,539 即使金融相关媒体的记者也不懂 46 00:02:22,539 --> 00:02:23,379 祝懂的话 47 00:02:23,379 --> 00:02:25,259 他干嘛还做记者呢 48 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,560 这个向下反转是因为新闻引起的吗 49 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:32,919 如果你打开电视 50 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,519 他们会说是的 51 00:02:35,979 --> 00:02:37,039 如果你问我 52 00:02:37,039 --> 00:02:38,060 我会告诉你 53 00:02:38,060 --> 00:02:39,740 这是因为支撑和阻力 54 00:02:39,740 --> 00:02:41,919 第一段上涨之后继续突破 55 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:43,080 有一点点回调 56 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,599 然后很快到达了上方的MM目标位 57 00:02:45,599 --> 00:02:47,599 当市场开始接近目标时 58 00:02:47,599 --> 00:02:49,379 每个人都知道他会达到目标 59 00:02:49,379 --> 00:02:51,000 所以空头不会做空 60 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:52,740 多头积极的买入 61 00:02:52,740 --> 00:02:54,319 然后一旦到达了目标 62 00:02:54,319 --> 00:02:55,719 多头就卖出止盈 63 00:02:55,719 --> 00:02:56,879 空头也知道这一点 64 00:02:56,879 --> 00:02:59,259 他们心想这是一个不错的做空价格 65 00:02:59,259 --> 00:03:01,259 多头和空头都在卖出 66 00:03:01,259 --> 00:03:04,020 所以市场反转下跌 67 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,819 看左边这个强势的上涨 68 00:03:11,819 --> 00:03:15,039 测试了抛售高潮的起跌点 69 00:03:15,349 --> 00:03:18,090 同时这很可能是一个即将形成的 70 00:03:18,090 --> 00:03:19,569 震荡区间的上沿 71 00:03:19,569 --> 00:03:23,189 这是市场反转下跌的另一个原因 72 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,680 市场不断在尝试找到最佳价格 73 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,460 也就是让交易最大化的价格 74 00:03:35,460 --> 00:03:37,199 如果市场上涨太高 75 00:03:37,199 --> 00:03:39,800 就没有足够多愿意追涨的买家 76 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,610 成交量会消失 77 00:03:41,610 --> 00:03:43,069 如果跌的太低 78 00:03:43,069 --> 00:03:45,650 愿意卖出的交易者也不够多 79 00:03:45,650 --> 00:03:48,879 所以市场不断的上探和下探 80 00:03:48,879 --> 00:03:53,000 尝试找到让交易最大化的价格 81 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,039 一旦市场接近一个公平价格 82 00:04:00,039 --> 00:04:03,409 或市场认为这是公平的价格 83 00:04:03,610 --> 00:04:06,969 振幅和K线往往就会变小 84 00:04:07,050 --> 00:04:08,789 买卖双方达成共识 85 00:04:08,789 --> 00:04:13,490 认为这个通道区域是一个合理的买卖价格 86 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,680 定价的过程涉及无数的变量 87 00:04:18,910 --> 00:04:21,629 他们都在不断变化 88 00:04:22,170 --> 00:04:23,529 在某个时刻 89 00:04:23,529 --> 00:04:25,490 价格不再那么公平 90 00:04:25,490 --> 00:04:26,449 要么太高 91 00:04:26,449 --> 00:04:27,250 要么太低 92 00:04:27,250 --> 00:04:30,290 所以市场必须迅速移动到新的公平价格 93 00:04:30,290 --> 00:04:32,449 所以你会看到突破 94 00:04:35,319 --> 00:04:37,040 市场不断上下测试 95 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,680 想要找到区间的边缘 96 00:04:40,250 --> 00:04:42,029 这里区间收敛 97 00:04:42,029 --> 00:04:44,529 价格达到三角形的顶点 98 00:04:44,529 --> 00:04:47,620 然后市场向下突破 99 00:04:47,779 --> 00:04:48,899 在某些时候 100 00:04:48,899 --> 00:04:51,199 市场决定现在的价格太高了 101 00:04:51,199 --> 00:04:52,120 必须下跌 102 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,139 才能找到足够多的买家来维持交易的活跃 103 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,480 我大部分时间在讲解日内的K线图 104 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,658 但市场在所有的时间周期都在寻找最佳的价格 105 00:05:07,658 --> 00:05:11,418 这是标普500指数的月K线图 106 00:05:14,579 --> 00:05:16,379 它从这个高点下跌 107 00:05:16,379 --> 00:05:19,158 然后从这个低点附近开始反弹 108 00:05:19,158 --> 00:05:21,158 这也是50%回调 109 00:05:21,158 --> 00:05:22,759 然后强势上涨 110 00:05:22,759 --> 00:05:24,199 当市场到达这个高点时 111 00:05:24,199 --> 00:05:25,559 发生了什么反转 112 00:05:25,559 --> 00:05:26,360 下跌了 113 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,540 市场再次认为这个价格太高了 114 00:05:29,540 --> 00:05:33,800 在这里买入的多头对下跌的幅度非常失望 115 00:05:34,550 --> 00:05:38,110 他们很高兴市场能回到他们的初始价格 116 00:05:38,110 --> 00:05:40,290 给了他们打平离场的机会 117 00:05:40,290 --> 00:05:42,980 这就是形成双顶的常见原因 118 00:05:42,980 --> 00:05:45,100 这里的情况正好相反 119 00:05:45,100 --> 00:05:46,579 空投看到了这个崩盘 120 00:05:46,579 --> 00:05:48,240 一些空投在这里卖出 121 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,649 他们对大幅的反弹感到非常失望 122 00:05:51,649 --> 00:05:54,129 市场好不容易跌回到他们的初始价格 123 00:05:54,129 --> 00:05:57,790 给了那些空头打平离场的机会 124 00:05:58,350 --> 00:06:00,509 所以空头和多头都在这里买入 125 00:06:00,509 --> 00:06:03,029 于是市场再次上涨 126 00:06:05,860 --> 00:06:07,500 基本面不断变化 127 00:06:07,500 --> 00:06:09,750 有无数的变量 128 00:06:09,829 --> 00:06:12,029 没有人知道所有的变量 129 00:06:12,029 --> 00:06:15,610 结果就是区间不断的变化 130 00:06:15,930 --> 00:06:19,529 公平价格的区间不断的变化 131 00:06:21,259 --> 00:06:25,420 然而价格总是会在某个支撑或阻力位反转 132 00:06:26,740 --> 00:06:28,860 2009年有这个大崩盘 133 00:06:28,860 --> 00:06:31,480 看看价格在哪里反转上涨 134 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,639 如果你把这些低点连成一条趋势线 135 00:06:34,639 --> 00:06:36,319 它刚好突破这条趋势线 136 00:06:36,319 --> 00:06:37,480 然后反转上涨 137 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:39,040 我在这里没有展示出来 138 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,110 但这是1987年的崩盘 139 00:06:41,110 --> 00:06:45,480 它也从那些低点的趋势线开始反转上涨 140 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:47,480 市场测试到支撑位 141 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,699 也是前期低点的支撑 142 00:06:49,699 --> 00:06:52,100 在稍低的价格找到了很多买家 143 00:06:52,100 --> 00:06:54,240 于是反转上涨 144 00:06:56,060 --> 00:06:59,420 这是欧元兑日元的月K线图 145 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,350 市场在所有时间周期上都在不断的测试 146 00:07:05,350 --> 00:07:07,670 想要找到最公平的价格 147 00:07:07,670 --> 00:07:09,189 在任何一个给定的时刻 148 00:07:09,189 --> 00:07:11,459 任何时间周期都可能成为最重要的 149 00:07:11,459 --> 00:07:12,180 那个时间周期 150 00:07:12,180 --> 00:07:14,860 即使你再看5分钟或一分钟的K线图 151 00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:19,459 有时月K线上的支撑和阻力也很重要 152 00:07:20,579 --> 00:07:22,220 基本面不断变化 153 00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:24,408 有无数的变量 154 00:07:24,408 --> 00:07:28,848 不可能知道所有的变量结果是公平的 155 00:07:28,848 --> 00:07:32,220 价格也在不断变化啊 156 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,939 月K线上有一个非常强的空头突破 157 00:07:37,939 --> 00:07:39,839 但市场在这里反转上涨 158 00:07:39,839 --> 00:07:40,279 为什么 159 00:07:40,279 --> 00:07:41,939 因为价格来到了通道的下沿 160 00:07:41,939 --> 00:07:43,480 这是一个楔形的下降通道 161 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,720 我可以在上沿画一条趋势线 162 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,908 这是一个三推楔形底 163 00:07:47,908 --> 00:07:49,988 有一个看起来很不错的做多信号 164 00:07:49,988 --> 00:07:52,428 K线同时价格在2000年的低点附近 165 00:07:52,428 --> 00:07:54,230 开始反转上涨 166 00:07:54,230 --> 00:07:56,750 这是对2000年低点的测试 167 00:07:58,629 --> 00:08:01,139 这是支撑啊 168 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:05,800 强势上涨 169 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,180 非常非常强势 170 00:08:07,180 --> 00:08:09,959 但迅速的反转下跌 171 00:08:11,048 --> 00:08:13,408 这是因为某些新闻报道吗 172 00:08:13,408 --> 00:08:14,649 当然不是 173 00:08:14,649 --> 00:08:16,468 这与时间周期也无关 174 00:08:16,468 --> 00:08:17,829 可能是一分钟途 175 00:08:17,829 --> 00:08:20,259 可能是周K线或月K线 176 00:08:20,259 --> 00:08:21,680 市场强势上涨 177 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,420 然后反转下跌是因为价格行为 178 00:08:24,420 --> 00:08:27,689 而不是因为新闻总是有新闻在发生 179 00:08:27,689 --> 00:08:30,069 新闻只是众多的变量之一 180 00:08:30,069 --> 00:08:34,279 但更重要的变量是支撑和阻力 181 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,500 但你必须能够找到支撑和阻力 182 00:08:37,500 --> 00:08:40,879 才能发现潜在的反转机会 183 00:08:42,178 --> 00:08:44,679 多头在这里的反弹比较弱 184 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,320 看起来像一个雄奇 185 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:47,399 第一段上涨 186 00:08:47,399 --> 00:08:50,000 然后出现了这个非常强的第二段上涨 187 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,750 于是很多多头认为太好了 188 00:08:52,750 --> 00:08:54,960 这是上涨趋势的开始 189 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,299 我们制造了多头突破回调 190 00:08:57,299 --> 00:09:00,589 然后进入通道肯定会继续大涨 191 00:09:00,589 --> 00:09:05,109 然而每当市场有很多震荡区间的价格行为时 192 00:09:05,109 --> 00:09:08,428 他经常有一个非常强的第二段 193 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,419 诱导交易者相信震荡区间即将结束 194 00:09:12,419 --> 00:09:15,879 市场正在突破进入趋势 195 00:09:17,519 --> 00:09:21,440 这是震荡区间或宽通道中的第二段陷阱 196 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:23,940 他们会被反转 197 00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:26,289 而不是继续上涨 198 00:09:26,899 --> 00:09:29,179 很多交易者看到这个会说哇 199 00:09:29,179 --> 00:09:30,200 太厉害了 200 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,840 很可能第一次向下反转的尝试会失败 201 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,080 还会有更多的上涨波段不对 202 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:37,639 这是第二段陷阱 203 00:09:37,639 --> 00:09:39,620 不管突破看上去多么强势 204 00:09:39,620 --> 00:09:42,200 都很可能被突然反转 205 00:09:44,580 --> 00:09:47,200 两段下跌一反弹二 206 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:48,960 第二段比第一段更强 207 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,419 交易者被套牢了 208 00:09:53,419 --> 00:09:54,379 两段上涨 209 00:09:54,379 --> 00:09:55,360 一回调 210 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:56,820 二反转下跌 211 00:09:58,179 --> 00:09:59,620 强势的第二段上涨 212 00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:02,139 测试震荡区间的上沿 213 00:10:02,590 --> 00:10:04,070 强势的第二段上涨 214 00:10:04,070 --> 00:10:05,750 看上去好像要突破了一样 215 00:10:05,750 --> 00:10:07,769 然而它却反转下跌 216 00:10:07,769 --> 00:10:11,450 这根K线收盘价高于这根K线的最高点 217 00:10:11,450 --> 00:10:13,690 好像也超过了过去20根K线的最高点 218 00:10:13,690 --> 00:10:15,370 一些交易者会想啊 219 00:10:15,370 --> 00:10:16,250 要突破了 220 00:10:16,250 --> 00:10:18,309 要进入上涨趋势了不对 221 00:10:18,309 --> 00:10:21,610 这是震荡区间中的第二段陷阱 222 00:10:23,019 --> 00:10:24,000 两段下跌 223 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:25,440 一反弹二 224 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,700 第二段下跌非常非常强势 225 00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:30,629 收盘价低于过去30或40根K线的最低点 226 00:10:30,629 --> 00:10:33,509 看起来这应该是一个下降趋势的开始 227 00:10:33,509 --> 00:10:37,240 交易者预期突破后会有第二段下跌 228 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,399 然而价格反转上涨了 229 00:10:39,399 --> 00:10:40,620 为什么会这样 230 00:10:40,620 --> 00:10:44,389 因为它仍然可能是震荡区间的一部分 231 00:10:44,389 --> 00:10:45,370 两段下跌 232 00:10:45,370 --> 00:10:46,950 第二段看起来足够强势 233 00:10:46,950 --> 00:10:48,450 好像要形成趋势 234 00:10:48,450 --> 00:10:50,230 但是反转了 235 00:10:50,230 --> 00:10:52,070 记住我的80%法则 236 00:10:52,070 --> 00:10:55,450 80%的震荡区间突破尝试会失败 237 00:10:55,450 --> 00:10:57,870 他们会被反转 238 00:10:58,529 --> 00:11:00,970 第一段上涨极其强势的 239 00:11:00,970 --> 00:11:02,649 第二段上涨 240 00:11:02,889 --> 00:11:05,789 收盘价高于过去40或50根K线的最高点 241 00:11:05,789 --> 00:11:08,720 但是看后面的跟随反转大阴线 242 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:09,500 多头预期 243 00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:11,139 这是上涨趋势的开始 244 00:11:11,139 --> 00:11:14,009 于是追涨结果全部被套牢了 245 00:11:14,009 --> 00:11:17,450 80%突破的尝试会失败 246 00:11:19,539 --> 00:11:24,019 市场总是不断被磁铁支撑和阻力吸引 247 00:11:24,509 --> 00:11:26,389 就像其他任何磁铁一样 248 00:11:26,389 --> 00:11:27,590 价格离它越近 249 00:11:27,590 --> 00:11:29,789 移动的就越快 250 00:11:32,019 --> 00:11:34,820 磁铁就是指支撑和阻力 251 00:11:34,820 --> 00:11:38,080 我使用磁铁一词来指代支撑和阻力 252 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:39,919 支撑阻力有很多类型 253 00:11:39,919 --> 00:11:44,169 趋势线mm目标位前期的高点低点 254 00:11:44,169 --> 00:11:48,129 这里有一条趋势线反转下跌 255 00:11:48,289 --> 00:11:52,230 这里有一条趋势线反转下跌通道 256 00:11:52,230 --> 00:11:56,059 下沿的通道线跌破失败 257 00:11:56,059 --> 00:11:57,179 然后反转上涨 258 00:11:57,179 --> 00:12:00,299 这里也是把这些高点连成趋势线 259 00:12:00,299 --> 00:12:02,340 反转下跌 260 00:12:03,620 --> 00:12:05,080 前期的高点和低点 261 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,320 市场测试了这个高点反转下跌 262 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,549 测试了这个高点反转下跌 263 00:12:09,549 --> 00:12:11,210 测试了这个低点 264 00:12:11,210 --> 00:12:12,730 空头买入止盈 265 00:12:12,730 --> 00:12:14,210 多头买入开仓 266 00:12:14,210 --> 00:12:17,289 测试了这个低点空头买入止盈 267 00:12:17,289 --> 00:12:18,450 多头买入开仓 268 00:12:18,450 --> 00:12:21,320 所以市场反转上涨啊 269 00:12:23,279 --> 00:12:26,759 mm目标在这里反转上涨 270 00:12:26,759 --> 00:12:29,679 到达了mm目标位 271 00:12:30,100 --> 00:12:32,559 震荡区间被向下突破 272 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,059 跌到MM附近 273 00:12:34,059 --> 00:12:36,340 开始反转上涨 274 00:12:37,379 --> 00:12:40,179 这个高点到那个低点之间的缺口 275 00:12:40,179 --> 00:12:41,940 可能是测量型缺口 276 00:12:41,940 --> 00:12:44,980 结果他确实是一个测量型缺口 277 00:12:49,820 --> 00:12:53,740 一旦市场接近震荡区间的上沿或下沿 278 00:12:53,740 --> 00:12:57,799 价格就处于区间边缘的引力场内 279 00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:00,980 它通常无法摆脱这种引力 280 00:13:00,980 --> 00:13:02,720 直到他达到目标 281 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,559 然后磁力突然消失 282 00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:08,559 就像任何磁铁一样 283 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,519 越接近磁力越强 284 00:13:10,519 --> 00:13:13,080 价格移动得越快 285 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,019 急速下跌到区间下沿 286 00:13:17,019 --> 00:13:18,360 然后反转上涨 287 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:19,799 急速跌破支撑 288 00:13:19,799 --> 00:13:22,240 然后反转上涨 289 00:13:23,899 --> 00:13:25,639 急速上涨到阻力 290 00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:27,940 然后反转下跌 291 00:13:28,090 --> 00:13:29,830 超级强势的暴涨 292 00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:32,950 但只被磁铁吸到前期高点的阻力 293 00:13:32,950 --> 00:13:35,250 然后反转下跌 294 00:13:41,299 --> 00:13:45,039 一旦市场达到磁铁及支撑或阻力 295 00:13:45,039 --> 00:13:46,139 磁力消失 296 00:13:46,139 --> 00:13:51,188 然后市场就会反转去测试相反的支撑或阻力 297 00:13:52,589 --> 00:13:54,448 市场决定价格跌过头了 298 00:13:54,448 --> 00:13:56,799 需要向上探索寻找卖价 299 00:13:56,799 --> 00:13:58,940 市场决定价格涨过头了 300 00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:01,519 需要向下探索寻找买家 301 00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:03,740 市场在不断的寻找最佳价格 302 00:14:03,740 --> 00:14:08,940 通常需要走过头才知道哪里是最合适的 303 00:14:13,179 --> 00:14:17,399 反转发生地方通常不止一种类型的支撑或阻力 304 00:14:17,399 --> 00:14:19,240 在起作用 305 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,620 这里有一个扩张三角形 306 00:14:21,620 --> 00:14:23,559 也是区间的下沿河 307 00:14:23,559 --> 00:14:28,818 上沿价格尝试突破前期的最高点和最低点 308 00:14:29,340 --> 00:14:32,620 通常也会有mm目标位 309 00:14:36,460 --> 00:14:40,519 看这里这个蓝色框框就在支撑上方 310 00:14:40,519 --> 00:14:42,960 多头和空头都看到下沿 311 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:44,578 知道这是支撑 312 00:14:44,578 --> 00:14:46,538 所以会发生什么呢 313 00:14:46,538 --> 00:14:49,350 嗯当市场下跌时 314 00:14:49,350 --> 00:14:50,450 每个人都知道 315 00:14:50,450 --> 00:14:54,230 市场可能会跌到支撑甚至更低一点 316 00:14:54,230 --> 00:14:57,154 那么机构会怎么做 317 00:14:58,350 --> 00:14:59,990 如果你是一个看涨的机构 318 00:14:59,990 --> 00:15:01,750 你知道价格会跌到下面 319 00:15:01,750 --> 00:15:03,210 你会在这里就买入吗 320 00:15:03,210 --> 00:15:05,440 不会多头不会在这里买入 321 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,000 一个看跌的计算机算法 322 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:08,980 比如是做高频交易的程序 323 00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:11,039 看到市场在快速下跌 324 00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:12,360 下面有一个磁铁 325 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,009 他会卖出做空 326 00:15:14,009 --> 00:15:16,429 所以空头在不断卖出 327 00:15:16,429 --> 00:15:17,889 而多头不买入 328 00:15:17,889 --> 00:15:22,850 结果就是市场必须继续下跌来找到买家 329 00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:29,068 空头预期市场会跌到支撑位甚至更低 330 00:15:29,068 --> 00:15:31,249 所以他们为什么要在这里买入回补 331 00:15:31,249 --> 00:15:32,469 他们知道会继续下跌 332 00:15:32,469 --> 00:15:34,208 所以他们目前还不会买入止盈 333 00:15:34,208 --> 00:15:35,489 空头不买入 334 00:15:35,489 --> 00:15:36,729 多头不买入 335 00:15:36,729 --> 00:15:40,629 而空头在卖出就导致了买卖力量的失衡 336 00:15:40,629 --> 00:15:44,029 市场迅速跌到支撑位 337 00:15:49,039 --> 00:15:53,299 因为多头和空头都认为市场会继续下跌一些 338 00:15:53,299 --> 00:15:57,580 所以在这里买入对多头和空头来说都没有意义 339 00:15:57,580 --> 00:15:58,799 没有人愿意买入 340 00:15:58,799 --> 00:16:01,820 于是市场迅速跌到支撑位 341 00:16:07,340 --> 00:16:10,320 结果通常是一两个非常大的大阴线 342 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:11,980 跌破支撑 343 00:16:13,009 --> 00:16:15,309 价格被吸到支撑位 344 00:16:15,309 --> 00:16:18,450 被吸到支撑位的下方 345 00:16:21,919 --> 00:16:23,559 但接下来会发生什么 346 00:16:23,559 --> 00:16:25,740 看这里市场突然反转 347 00:16:25,740 --> 00:16:28,159 为什么会这样呢 348 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:30,419 到了支撑位 349 00:16:30,419 --> 00:16:34,159 多头决定这是一个好的买入价格 350 00:16:35,070 --> 00:16:36,110 市场在前面 351 00:16:36,110 --> 00:16:38,129 这里和这里都被埋起来了 352 00:16:38,129 --> 00:16:40,009 而现在又到达了这个区域 353 00:16:40,009 --> 00:16:43,639 所以多头突然出现再次开始买入空头 354 00:16:43,639 --> 00:16:45,679 也知道市场会在这里反转上涨 355 00:16:45,679 --> 00:16:47,440 在这里和这里反转上涨 356 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,000 所以他们也买入止盈 357 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:49,840 空头仓位 358 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:50,919 空头买入止盈 359 00:16:50,919 --> 00:16:52,120 多头买入做多 360 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:53,299 建立多头仓位 361 00:16:53,299 --> 00:16:55,509 压住支撑位会继续有效 362 00:16:55,509 --> 00:16:57,429 当市场处于震荡区间时 363 00:16:57,429 --> 00:17:00,009 市场通常会穿过支撑位的一点点 364 00:17:00,009 --> 00:17:01,950 然后反转 365 00:17:05,019 --> 00:17:08,630 相反的情况发生在震荡区间的上沿 366 00:17:08,630 --> 00:17:10,690 在前期的高点下方 367 00:17:10,690 --> 00:17:12,329 市场快速上涨 368 00:17:12,329 --> 00:17:16,009 你认为空头会在这里开始卖出做空吗 369 00:17:16,009 --> 00:17:18,289 不会他们知道价格会到达那个高点 370 00:17:18,289 --> 00:17:19,890 所以空头现在不会卖出 371 00:17:19,890 --> 00:17:21,589 现在市场上是没有空投的 372 00:17:21,589 --> 00:17:24,400 而多头现在看到很多上涨的动能 373 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,509 他们知道市场有很高的可能性会继续上涨 374 00:17:27,509 --> 00:17:29,630 于是他们更加积极的买入 375 00:17:29,630 --> 00:17:31,450 所以多头在激进的买入 376 00:17:31,450 --> 00:17:32,990 而没有空投在卖出 377 00:17:32,990 --> 00:17:36,710 结果就是价格快速上涨到阻力位 378 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,319 在阻力位的下方没有人卖出 379 00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:45,619 因为多头和空头都知道市场会继续上涨 380 00:17:45,619 --> 00:17:48,490 至少涨到阻力位甚至更高一点 381 00:17:48,490 --> 00:17:50,329 空投不会在这里卖出 382 00:17:50,329 --> 00:17:54,390 因为他们知道可以在更高的价格卖出 383 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,400 直到价格达到穿过阻力位 384 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,119 空投才会开始卖出 385 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:00,440 他们大量卖出 386 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,329 尤其是当他们看到市场开始反转下跌时 387 00:18:04,339 --> 00:18:08,730 他们相信这会是一个短期的高点 388 00:18:09,529 --> 00:18:11,309 多头的预期也是一样 389 00:18:11,309 --> 00:18:12,849 他们看到同样的事情 390 00:18:12,849 --> 00:18:15,410 他们看到价格达到了震荡区间的上沿 391 00:18:15,410 --> 00:18:16,819 大阳线突然暴涨 392 00:18:16,819 --> 00:18:18,779 对于多头而言是一个礼物 393 00:18:18,779 --> 00:18:21,900 K线对于他们而言是一个非常好的止盈的机会 394 00:18:21,900 --> 00:18:23,700 所以多头也在卖出 395 00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:26,250 所以当市场上涨到卖出区域 396 00:18:26,250 --> 00:18:31,220 前期的高点附近或者是任何阻力位置嗯 397 00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:35,599 你会看到突然的反转 398 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,839 一个新手不明白发生了什么 399 00:18:40,839 --> 00:18:43,980 他只能看到这根K线哇 400 00:18:43,980 --> 00:18:45,680 好大的大阳线呀 401 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,960 这将是上涨趋势的开始 402 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,559 他忽略了左边的所有这些阻力 403 00:18:51,799 --> 00:18:53,700 他只能看到那个大阳线 404 00:18:53,700 --> 00:18:55,309 他想在这里买入 405 00:18:55,309 --> 00:18:57,690 压住多头的突破会成功 406 00:18:57,690 --> 00:18:58,529 几分钟后 407 00:18:58,529 --> 00:19:01,109 他看到这个委屈的想到我靠 408 00:19:01,109 --> 00:19:02,390 太不公平了 409 00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:03,819 怎么会这样 410 00:19:03,819 --> 00:19:05,839 但这种事一直在发生 411 00:19:05,839 --> 00:19:07,700 新手总是低位卖出 412 00:19:07,700 --> 00:19:10,569 压住空头突破会成功 413 00:19:10,690 --> 00:19:12,410 新手也总是在高位买入 414 00:19:12,410 --> 00:19:14,680 压住多头的突破会成功 415 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:19,160 他们总是期待这些强势的K线之后会有第二段 416 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:20,579 但在震荡区间中 417 00:19:20,579 --> 00:19:21,759 这就是第二段 418 00:19:21,759 --> 00:19:23,359 他们被套牢了 419 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:24,900 第一段回调 420 00:19:24,900 --> 00:19:27,549 第二段不会有第三段了 421 00:19:27,549 --> 00:19:31,250 市场直接反转下跌价格被吸到阻力位 422 00:19:31,250 --> 00:19:32,909 被吸到支撑位 423 00:19:32,909 --> 00:19:35,409 然后多空双方同时都在买入 424 00:19:35,409 --> 00:19:37,189 多空双方同时都在卖出 425 00:19:37,189 --> 00:19:38,509 制造了突然的反转 426 00:19:38,509 --> 00:19:41,269 而不是成功的突破 427 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,240 新手在这里买入的另一个原因是 428 00:19:48,470 --> 00:19:51,150 他们害怕错过这个巨大的上涨趋势 429 00:19:51,150 --> 00:19:53,390 尽管他们看到了左边的这些反转 430 00:19:53,390 --> 00:19:56,000 他们当然也害怕再次反转 431 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,480 他们希望尽可能地减少风险 432 00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:03,319 所以他们在突破的过程中立即买入 433 00:20:03,849 --> 00:20:05,789 而不是耐心等待突破后的跟随 434 00:20:05,789 --> 00:20:07,170 他们想提前入场 435 00:20:07,170 --> 00:20:08,369 再下眼也是一样 436 00:20:08,369 --> 00:20:09,529 他们看到突破 437 00:20:09,529 --> 00:20:11,650 他们想减少风险 438 00:20:11,650 --> 00:20:13,630 他们害怕账户发生亏损 439 00:20:13,630 --> 00:20:15,269 新手的账户通常比较小 440 00:20:15,269 --> 00:20:16,730 所以他们卖出做空希望 441 00:20:16,730 --> 00:20:18,960 这是一个巨大下降趋势的开始 442 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,279 但他们完全忽略了概率 443 00:20:21,279 --> 00:20:25,569 看看左边多头突破的成功率有多大 444 00:20:25,569 --> 00:20:29,349 空投突破的成功率有多大 445 00:20:29,829 --> 00:20:32,369 这是新手的常见的错误之一 446 00:20:32,369 --> 00:20:34,029 他们太在乎风险了 447 00:20:34,029 --> 00:20:35,450 他们想减少风险 448 00:20:35,450 --> 00:20:37,289 所以他们想尽早入场 449 00:20:37,289 --> 00:20:41,240 这就导致赚钱的概率非常小啊 450 00:20:43,420 --> 00:20:45,359 新手在这个反弹的时候做空 451 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:46,759 认为这是一个雄起 452 00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:48,460 期待第二段下跌 453 00:20:48,460 --> 00:20:51,400 然而这个小阴线就是第二段的全部了 454 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,740 只是略微下跌 455 00:20:52,740 --> 00:20:55,740 甚至没有跌破之前的低点 456 00:20:57,579 --> 00:21:01,019 新手在这个强势大阳线的收盘买入 457 00:21:01,019 --> 00:21:02,599 或者会在这里买入 458 00:21:02,599 --> 00:21:03,900 希望第二段上涨 459 00:21:03,900 --> 00:21:06,119 因为他觉得这非常强势 460 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:10,180 市场肯定会涨到更高的价格啊 461 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:19,779 新手无法相信回调不断的发展发展 462 00:21:19,980 --> 00:21:21,339 它在这里反弹的时候 463 00:21:21,339 --> 00:21:22,880 卖出压注会再次下跌 464 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,799 这里是第二做空入场点注 465 00:21:24,799 --> 00:21:26,400 但做空信号并不好 466 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,450 第一第二 467 00:21:27,450 --> 00:21:29,710 然而市场不断的上涨上涨 468 00:21:29,710 --> 00:21:30,769 他在这里买入 469 00:21:30,769 --> 00:21:33,210 期待这个强势突破后的第二段上涨 470 00:21:33,210 --> 00:21:35,779 然后眼睁睁的看看着价格永无止境的回调 471 00:21:35,779 --> 00:21:36,700 不断下跌 472 00:21:36,700 --> 00:21:41,569 最终他在震荡区间的下沿卖出止损在下沿卖出 473 00:21:41,569 --> 00:21:45,329 做空的新手会在上沿买入止损 474 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,119 最后的结果是新手在低位做空 475 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,160 在高位追涨 476 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:51,980 在低位止损多头仓位 477 00:21:51,980 --> 00:21:53,960 然后开仓做空 478 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,400 在高位止损空头仓位 479 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:57,880 然后开仓做多 480 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,200 期待这次突破也许会成功 481 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:09,359 正好和专业交易员所做的事情完全相反 482 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,039 新手在低位卖出做空 483 00:22:16,039 --> 00:22:17,339 然后在高位买入回补 484 00:22:17,339 --> 00:22:18,640 他在高位买入做多 485 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,259 然后在低位卖出止损 486 00:22:20,259 --> 00:22:21,859 他止损空头仓位的地方 487 00:22:21,859 --> 00:22:24,160 正好是专业交易员开仓做空的地方 488 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:25,700 他止损多头仓位的地方 489 00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:28,160 正好是专业交易员开仓做多的地方 490 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,888 完全和震荡区间中应该做的事情反过来了 491 00:22:33,489 --> 00:22:34,628 在震荡区间里 492 00:22:34,628 --> 00:22:35,689 你应该在低位买入 493 00:22:35,689 --> 00:22:36,509 而不是卖出 494 00:22:36,509 --> 00:22:38,108 你应该在高位卖出 495 00:22:38,108 --> 00:22:40,288 而不是买入 496 00:22:43,700 --> 00:22:45,720 价格不断被吸到下沿 497 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,480 又被吸到上沿 498 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,779 然后一直重复这个过程 499 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,019 有经验的交易者明白 500 00:22:59,019 --> 00:23:01,480 当市场处于震荡区间时 501 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,460 你必须反其道而行之 502 00:23:03,460 --> 00:23:05,710 用反常的逻辑去交易 503 00:23:05,710 --> 00:23:08,009 你必须压住突破会失败 504 00:23:08,009 --> 00:23:09,369 这个趋势不一样 505 00:23:09,369 --> 00:23:13,269 在趋势中你压住突破会成功 506 00:23:15,660 --> 00:23:17,920 这是趋势还是震荡区间 507 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,460 显然是震荡区间 508 00:23:25,500 --> 00:23:27,319 接下来我要说的是真的 509 00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:30,519 尽管我无法直接提供行业内这些秘密的证据 510 00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:32,599 如果我在运行计算机算法 511 00:23:32,599 --> 00:23:34,509 这是我会做的事 512 00:23:35,069 --> 00:23:36,750 如果我是一家做空的机构 513 00:23:36,750 --> 00:23:37,890 我想在高位卖出 514 00:23:37,890 --> 00:23:40,039 但我想说服其他机构和交易者 515 00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:42,720 让他们相信市场还会继续涨 516 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,640 让他们再上演买入做多 517 00:23:46,150 --> 00:23:49,829 很多做空的机构在这里会先买入做多 518 00:23:49,829 --> 00:23:51,630 做剥头皮交易 519 00:23:51,630 --> 00:23:53,549 让上涨动能继续保持 520 00:23:53,549 --> 00:23:56,230 然后在其他机构追涨被套牢之后 521 00:23:56,230 --> 00:23:59,089 就迅速大量的卖出做空 522 00:23:59,089 --> 00:24:02,700 这就是抢购高潮形成的部分原因 523 00:24:02,859 --> 00:24:04,480 他们在上涨时买入 524 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,160 尽可能的制造强势的超买现象 525 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,410 然后预期剧烈的反转下跌 526 00:24:10,569 --> 00:24:12,609 相反的情况发生在低位 527 00:24:12,609 --> 00:24:16,180 做多的机构会在先这里卖出 528 00:24:16,539 --> 00:24:19,079 尽可能的制造强势的超卖现象 529 00:24:19,079 --> 00:24:21,140 然后迅速大量的买入 530 00:24:21,140 --> 00:24:23,970 把在低位追空的机构套牢 531 00:24:23,970 --> 00:24:28,400 他们做多的仓位就可以赚钱了啊 532 00:24:31,740 --> 00:24:34,559 空投在区间顶部的下方先买入 533 00:24:34,559 --> 00:24:37,119 让多头相信突破会成功 534 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,539 他们想要骗多头在高位接盘 535 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,638 多头会在反转下跌时止损卖出 536 00:24:44,999 --> 00:24:46,919 在20或30年前 537 00:24:46,919 --> 00:24:48,739 很多机构会这么做 538 00:24:48,739 --> 00:24:50,630 这很重要 539 00:24:50,789 --> 00:24:54,670 这是造成反转发生的一个重要因素 540 00:24:59,019 --> 00:25:01,259 多头下沿先假装要卖出 541 00:25:01,259 --> 00:25:02,519 空头再上严 542 00:25:02,519 --> 00:25:03,900 先假装要买入 543 00:25:03,900 --> 00:25:06,690 主要是计算机在执行这些订单 544 00:25:06,690 --> 00:25:09,009 手动交易的速度太慢了 545 00:25:09,009 --> 00:25:10,390 无法执行这些交易 546 00:25:10,390 --> 00:25:11,970 然后瞬间反向操作 547 00:25:11,970 --> 00:25:15,670 我不确定现在这种做法对市场还有多大的影响 548 00:25:15,670 --> 00:25:20,470 但这确实是造成这些高潮反转的因素之一 549 00:25:26,819 --> 00:25:29,380 当市场下跌到支撑位时 550 00:25:29,380 --> 00:25:32,529 机构会反其道而行之 551 00:25:32,730 --> 00:25:36,410 做多的机构希望市场尽可能的超卖 552 00:25:36,410 --> 00:25:39,809 然后剧烈的反转上涨 553 00:25:40,619 --> 00:25:42,099 所以他们先做空 554 00:25:42,099 --> 00:25:44,579 然后快速止盈 555 00:25:45,939 --> 00:25:47,838 然后迅速大量的买入 556 00:25:47,838 --> 00:25:51,898 制造一个大的反转上涨抛售高潮越剧烈 557 00:25:51,898 --> 00:25:54,949 这些做多的公司就越受益 558 00:25:55,309 --> 00:25:57,369 因为反转的概率提高了 559 00:25:57,369 --> 00:26:01,309 而且反转的剧烈程度也会提高 560 00:26:02,589 --> 00:26:04,349 他们用尽所有的手段 561 00:26:04,349 --> 00:26:07,509 让市场尽可能极端的超卖 562 00:26:07,670 --> 00:26:09,890 然后期待强势的反转 563 00:26:09,890 --> 00:26:13,509 并且在反转上涨时大量买入 564 00:26:21,839 --> 00:26:24,119 这些多头会先卖出做空尝试 565 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,500 让市场加速下跌 566 00:26:25,500 --> 00:26:29,519 尝试吸引尽可能多的空头卖出做空 567 00:26:29,519 --> 00:26:32,319 他们希望空投压住突破成功 568 00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:34,480 这些做多的机构之所以这样做 569 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,619 是因为他们确信会有足够多的买盘 570 00:26:36,619 --> 00:26:38,880 无论是来自他们本身还是其他机构 571 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,400 让空投突破失败 572 00:26:43,019 --> 00:26:45,079 他们想让空头掉入陷阱 573 00:26:45,079 --> 00:26:49,119 而那些套牢的空投不得不在反转上涨开始时 574 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,319 在这里和这里买入止损离场 575 00:26:58,619 --> 00:27:01,160 尝试突破看起来很强势 576 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,240 但失败了 577 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:03,660 后续没有好的跟随 578 00:27:03,660 --> 00:27:04,460 被反转了 579 00:27:04,460 --> 00:27:06,259 多头尝试突破看起来很强势 580 00:27:06,259 --> 00:27:10,460 但是看后面的跟随反转大阴线 581 00:27:13,039 --> 00:27:15,299 被套牢的空头止损离场 582 00:27:15,299 --> 00:27:16,880 直到上涨到区间上延迟前 583 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,400 他们可能都不会再次做空了 584 00:27:20,079 --> 00:27:23,700 而在这里被套牢的多头止损离场 585 00:27:23,700 --> 00:27:25,579 直到下跌到区间下沿之前 586 00:27:25,579 --> 00:27:28,160 他们可能都不会再次买入了 587 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:33,839 在下言强 588 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:35,740 多头只赢空头仓位 589 00:27:35,740 --> 00:27:37,759 并且买入做多 590 00:27:38,679 --> 00:27:40,578 一些空投希望突破成功 591 00:27:40,578 --> 00:27:42,618 会下跌到MM目标位 592 00:27:42,618 --> 00:27:45,449 强多头从这些空投的手中大量买入 593 00:27:45,449 --> 00:27:47,769 这些空头卖出做空期望这是测量型缺口 594 00:27:47,769 --> 00:27:49,829 期待价格会跌到mm目标位 595 00:27:49,829 --> 00:27:50,869 他们在卖出 596 00:27:50,869 --> 00:27:52,809 而多头从他们手中买入 597 00:27:52,809 --> 00:27:54,849 最终那些空头放弃 598 00:27:54,849 --> 00:27:59,269 如果多头能制造出一个强势的反转上涨 599 00:28:00,309 --> 00:28:02,549 很多时候就会一直涨到区间的上沿 600 00:28:02,549 --> 00:28:04,430 这里多头成功了 601 00:28:08,220 --> 00:28:12,220 记住多头希望市场尽可能超卖抛售高潮 602 00:28:13,660 --> 00:28:16,909 他们希望制造尽可能大的阴线 603 00:28:18,450 --> 00:28:20,650 来套牢尽可能多的空头 604 00:28:22,049 --> 00:28:26,569 这样抛售高潮后的反转上涨就会更加剧烈 605 00:28:32,839 --> 00:28:36,380 他们尝试鼓励空投在低位卖出做空 606 00:28:36,380 --> 00:28:38,619 他们让空投相信突破会成功 607 00:28:38,619 --> 00:28:40,630 会跌到mm目标位 608 00:28:40,630 --> 00:28:42,269 然后他们把空头套牢 609 00:28:42,269 --> 00:28:43,890 空投不得不放弃离场 610 00:28:43,890 --> 00:28:45,480 空头止损离场 611 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,140 在涨到上沿之前 612 00:28:47,140 --> 00:28:50,839 他们都不会再次迈出了嗯 613 00:29:00,319 --> 00:29:01,859 在上涨过程中 614 00:29:01,859 --> 00:29:04,200 多头会尝试阻止回调 615 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,759 他们希望逼迫空头在更高的价格买入回补 616 00:29:09,859 --> 00:29:12,839 当价格在这里开始上涨时 617 00:29:12,839 --> 00:29:14,779 有一些空头仍然在卖出 618 00:29:14,779 --> 00:29:16,359 多头激进的买入 619 00:29:16,359 --> 00:29:18,549 试图阻止回调的发生 620 00:29:18,549 --> 00:29:23,009 逼迫空头不得不在非常高的价格买入回补 621 00:29:23,170 --> 00:29:28,289 而那个高价就是多头会卖出止盈的地方 622 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,339 在区间的上沿 623 00:29:38,339 --> 00:29:40,759 空投会先买入做多 624 00:29:40,759 --> 00:29:44,880 尝试制造尽可能极端的抢购高潮 625 00:29:45,079 --> 00:29:47,400 这样反转下跌就会更剧烈 626 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,319 会跌的更多 627 00:29:49,689 --> 00:29:51,388 一旦到达他们的卖出区域 628 00:29:51,388 --> 00:29:52,888 他们就会止盈多头仓位 629 00:29:52,888 --> 00:29:55,108 然后转为大量的卖出做空 630 00:29:55,108 --> 00:29:56,279 他们卖给多头 631 00:29:56,279 --> 00:29:58,839 有些多头看到强势的突破 632 00:29:58,839 --> 00:30:01,740 希望这是一个强上涨趋势的开始 633 00:30:01,740 --> 00:30:03,980 他们期待市场会上涨到mm目标位 634 00:30:03,980 --> 00:30:06,480 也许是基于震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍 635 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,440 然而市场迅速反转下跌 636 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,400 那些多头被套牢了 637 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,920 他们不得不止损离场 638 00:30:17,359 --> 00:30:21,240 那些买入制造抢购高潮的空头 639 00:30:21,769 --> 00:30:24,289 在市场反转下跌时会疯狂地卖出 640 00:30:24,289 --> 00:30:26,559 单独一家机构并不一定能做到 641 00:30:26,559 --> 00:30:29,039 但如果有足够多的公司在这样做 642 00:30:29,039 --> 00:30:33,230 确信市场会保持在震荡区间内反转 643 00:30:33,230 --> 00:30:34,390 下跌就会发生 644 00:30:34,390 --> 00:30:35,470 正如之前所说 645 00:30:35,470 --> 00:30:37,289 当你看到一个震荡区间 646 00:30:37,289 --> 00:30:40,680 好像正在尝试突破80%的时间里 647 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:41,799 突破会失败 648 00:30:41,799 --> 00:30:43,039 市场会反转 649 00:30:43,039 --> 00:30:45,460 就算突破看上去非常强势 650 00:30:45,460 --> 00:30:47,039 像这样或这样 651 00:30:47,039 --> 00:30:49,119 他仍然大概率会失败 652 00:30:49,119 --> 00:30:52,259 嗯大部分机构是这样预期的 653 00:30:52,259 --> 00:30:54,079 一旦价格涨得足够高 654 00:30:54,079 --> 00:30:55,980 很多机构会开始卖出 655 00:30:55,980 --> 00:30:59,619 压倒那些期待突破成功的多头 656 00:31:07,660 --> 00:31:11,680 在区间上沿空投想尽可能的以高价卖出 657 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,980 他们希望市场尽可能超买 658 00:31:15,679 --> 00:31:17,659 因为那样有更大的概率 659 00:31:17,659 --> 00:31:20,319 可以制造一个大的反转下跌 660 00:31:20,319 --> 00:31:22,799 空头希望阳线越大越好 661 00:31:22,799 --> 00:31:26,019 他们预期市场突破的尝试会失败 662 00:31:26,019 --> 00:31:28,740 但他们希望他尽可能是一个强势的大阳线 663 00:31:28,740 --> 00:31:30,579 来让尽可能多的多头被套牢 664 00:31:30,579 --> 00:31:33,359 这让那些多头就不得不卖出止损 665 00:31:33,359 --> 00:31:36,460 这会助推价格加速下跌 666 00:31:42,980 --> 00:31:48,210 那些在这里买入并在这里止损卖出的多头 667 00:31:48,210 --> 00:31:50,529 你认为他们会在这里再次买入吗 668 00:31:50,529 --> 00:31:52,369 不会这么剧烈的反转 669 00:31:52,369 --> 00:31:55,170 至少会有第二段下跌到了下沿附近 670 00:31:55,170 --> 00:31:57,490 多头才会再次买入 671 00:31:57,490 --> 00:32:00,069 这让反弹出现的概率降低 672 00:32:00,069 --> 00:32:05,089 一并增加了空投会赚到更多钱的可能性 673 00:32:10,119 --> 00:32:12,960 那些在这里或这里卖出的空投 674 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,589 他们会继续疯狂地卖出 675 00:32:15,589 --> 00:32:18,710 他们想在短时间内把价格压得很低 676 00:32:18,710 --> 00:32:20,309 这就不会有反弹 677 00:32:20,309 --> 00:32:23,159 直到价格跌得足够远 678 00:32:23,358 --> 00:32:27,919 他们希望逼迫多头以很低的价格卖出止损 679 00:32:28,148 --> 00:32:33,088 这样多头在短期很多K线内就不会再次买入 680 00:32:33,088 --> 00:32:36,349 这增加了继续下跌的概率 681 00:32:36,589 --> 00:32:40,029 所以如果空头能让价格跌了很远之后才反弹 682 00:32:40,029 --> 00:32:44,630 那么止损的多头短期内就不会再次买入 683 00:32:46,079 --> 00:32:49,380 那些最初没有卖出的空头 684 00:32:49,380 --> 00:32:51,359 急切地想要卖出做空 685 00:32:51,359 --> 00:32:52,940 即使在这么低的价格 686 00:32:52,940 --> 00:32:54,140 他们也会卖出 687 00:32:54,140 --> 00:32:56,160 多头和空头都在卖出 688 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,440 造成了第二段下跌 689 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,650 对在这里卖出的机构来说 690 00:33:00,650 --> 00:33:03,809 快速把价格尽可能的压低是有利的 691 00:33:03,809 --> 00:33:04,869 因为这样的话 692 00:33:04,869 --> 00:33:08,329 套牢的多头就不得不止损 693 00:33:11,259 --> 00:33:14,019 而还没入场的空投也会迫切的追空 694 00:33:14,019 --> 00:33:16,380 第一次反转上涨的尝试会失败 695 00:33:16,380 --> 00:33:18,460 会有第二段下跌 696 00:33:26,940 --> 00:33:29,599 这节课我先讲了真空效应 697 00:33:29,599 --> 00:33:32,019 当市场接近支撑和阻力时 698 00:33:32,019 --> 00:33:33,400 他经常加速 699 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,970 然后一旦达到支撑或阻力 700 00:33:36,089 --> 00:33:37,589 或稍微超过它 701 00:33:37,589 --> 00:33:39,049 价格就会反转 702 00:33:40,130 --> 00:33:44,659 然后我讲了机构是如何反其道而行之的 703 00:33:45,138 --> 00:33:48,058 做多机构会在震荡区间下沿线做空尝试 704 00:33:48,058 --> 00:33:50,058 制造尽可能大的抛售高潮 705 00:33:50,058 --> 00:33:51,659 然后他们在大量买入 706 00:33:51,659 --> 00:33:56,910 而在区间的上沿做空的机构会先买入做多尝试 707 00:33:56,910 --> 00:33:58,970 让市场尽可能的超买 708 00:33:58,970 --> 00:34:02,470 制造尽可能大的抢购高潮 709 00:34:03,220 --> 00:34:04,819 然后他们不断卖出 710 00:34:04,819 --> 00:34:07,059 在下跌的波段中赚钱 711 00:34:07,059 --> 00:34:09,519 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 712 00:34:09,519 --> 00:34:12,260 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程 713 00:34:12,260 --> 00:34:15,500 震荡区间的第五节课就讲到这里
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