【Adam Khoo】彼得·林奇也曾亏损50%？看懂回撤，你才能翻倍

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因此，如果你的投资组合今年下跌了

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我们称之为回撤

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嗯

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你并不孤单

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我也是

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我的投资组合前三个月至今下跌了11%

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这意味着什么

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这说明我是个蠢货吗

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你是个蠢货

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那我们应该怎么办呢

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让我在这段视频中讲解回撤的心理学

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所以截至目前我的投资组合下跌了11.05%

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这比标普500的回撤略大

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标普500下跌了9%

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稍后我会解释原因

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如果你想知道的话

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呃

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然后为什么你的图表看起来有点奇怪

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比如

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为什么这里突然有跳跃

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为什么1月14日股价突然上涨

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这是因为这实际上是我新创建的企业账户

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因为原本所有股票投资都在我和妻子的联名账户里

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如你所见

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因为我们年纪大了

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我的担忧是如果我突然去世

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联名账户可能面临美国遗产税

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美国政府征收40%的税率

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如果我去世的话

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所以为了避免遗产税

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我完全避免了遗产税

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我将99%的股票从联名账户转出

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你可以看到

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我将580万美元转入新企业账户

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1月14日存入

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从现在起我会使用这个企业账户

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将所有资金转入企业账户或信托账户的好处

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是公司和信托不会死亡

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因此无需担心遗产税

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唯一的问题是企业账户只能在1月14日启用

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因此今年前13天

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市场表现非常好

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未被新账户记录

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看起来比实际更糟

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如果你看我1月1日开设的原账户

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1月初期段

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今年实际收益为7.67%

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实际上我的回撤略低于标普500

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不过算了

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我接受下跌11%的事实以简化情况

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现在再来一次

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如果你看标普500指数

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你可以看到回撤实际上约9%

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所以为什么呢

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我的投资组合下跌超过9%

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如果你下跌超过9%

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原因非常简单

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是因为你没有持有任何能源股

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所以从年初至今

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许多股票

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事实上下跌超过9%

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许多下跌了20%

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30%甚至更多，但其中很多都是优质公司

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你的微软

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你的英伟达

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你的Meta

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这些硅谷巨头

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优秀公司却大幅下跌

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而我持有这些公司

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但为什么标普

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只下跌9%

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因为被能源股支撑

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为什么油价都在上涨

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能源公司赚得盆满钵满

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正如你所知

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我投资组合中购买的多数股票集中在这些板块

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比如医疗科技

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金融股

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通信服务

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消费类股票

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也称为消费周期股

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因为这些板块内的股票

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增长速度更快

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利润率更高

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经济韧性更强

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资本回报率高于标普500

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从长期来看

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这些板块

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将大幅跑赢标普500

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长期来看

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但今年我们称之为反常

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反常时期

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没错

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通常标普中的公司

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比如

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这些板块表现最差

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由于对AI颠覆的担忧

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在我看来这是不理性的

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而且很多都是无根据的

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当然还有中东危机的影响

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对

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通常我不买的行业

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这些行业长期来看无法超越市场表现

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标普指数

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他们拥有

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呃

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更薄的利润率

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更高的负债

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更低的资本回报率

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比如能源股

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基础材料

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公用事业

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消费防御板块

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这些今年又异常突出

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正是这些板块支撑着市场表现

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投资者应该怎么做

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如果你像我一样

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是否应该说

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好的

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那我就卖掉所有这些垃圾股

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好的然后买入表现好的股票

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不

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我不应该这样做

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好的

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我会坚持计划继续持有已投资的公司

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因为我清楚很快就会出现均值回归

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当所有价格回落时

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当金顿与加约拉达成协议后

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呃

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这些股票就会下跌

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随后它们会回升

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最终会恢复原状

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时间问题

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当然

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现在正是增持优质下跌股票的好机会

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这些股票长期将跑赢标普指数

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但我知道

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尤其是新投资者

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看到投资组合缩水会非常痛苦

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看到自己持有的股票

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那些你以为是好公司

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为什么它们在下跌

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现在完全不合逻辑

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我明白这可能带来心理创伤

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如果你是新手

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在这段视频中

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我将分享如何管理这些回调期的心理

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首先要理解这些投资组合价值下跌

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是常见现象

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这非常常见

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这种情况经常发生

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所以让我向你展示我的投资组合的历史

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这是过去七年的投资组合记录

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从2019年1月到今年1月

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你可以看到我的蓝⾊投资组合总收益达267%

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对比标普500指数

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绿色部分增长了175%

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但沿途你也看到了多次回撤

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例如

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2020年新冠疫情期间的熊市中

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我的投资组合下跌了36%

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事实上

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我的投资组合甚至比标普500更大幅回撤

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然后在2022年加息引发的熊市中

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当美联储激进加息时

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我的投资组合下跌了26%

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最近在2025年去年

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特朗普宣布全球加征关税即解放日

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我感到恐慌

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对吧

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我的投资组合也下跌了19%

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好的

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投资组合出现两位数跌幅并不罕见

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即使你持有像我这样的优质公司

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这种情况会发生

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是的

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今年以来到目前为止

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我的投资组合下跌了11%

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是否可能跌至15%到20%

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25%

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当然可能谁知道呢

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但我始终安慰自己

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即使是世界上最优秀的投资者

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也无法避免回撤

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即使是投资界传奇

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沃伦·巴菲特投资超过80年

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通过伯克希尔公司

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展现了其投资策略

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可以看到

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自1990年代以来

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伯克希尔实现了增长

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相比标普500增长4000%

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而标普500仅增长1200%

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两倍于标普

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实际上他实现了四倍增长

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超越标普500

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但同样

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看看途中的回撤情况

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在那个时期

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十九世纪末九十年代

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他的

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他的投资组合下跌了5.1%

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然后在

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呃

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两到三年

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下跌24%

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在二或五

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下跌18%至26%

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呃

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在金融危机期间

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下跌4.5%然后又跌2%

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这里下跌4%

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下跌19%

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下跌18点

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这里两次下跌6%

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事实上在新冠期间下跌31%

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呃

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2022年下跌27%

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最近这一年

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下跌15点

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7

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5%

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我另一个多年效仿的英雄是

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当然彼得·林奇

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他已经退休多年了

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但他被誉为有史以来最伟大的基金经理

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在他管理马格纳基金期间

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持续了十三年

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他使基金增长了604%，而标普指数仅增长223%

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标普500指数增长223%

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他的年复合增长率达29%

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这是否意味着他的投资组合每年恰好增长29%

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不

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这是否意味着直线增长

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不

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事实上他的投资组合每年都有回撤

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每当标普500下跌时

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他的投资组合跌幅更大

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然后

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标普500指数

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例如

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可以看到大幅回撤

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5

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6%这里

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然后27%这里

246
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42%这里

247
00:09:03,090 --> 00:09:03,929
32%这里

248
00:09:03,929 --> 00:09:04,669
所以再次

249
00:09:04,669 --> 00:09:07,529
他的回撤幅度超过标普500

250
00:09:07,529 --> 00:09:11,100
为什么因为你觉得他是一个伟大的投资者

251
00:09:11,100 --> 00:09:12,919
你必须做逆向投资者

252
00:09:12,919 --> 00:09:15,620
你必须买入别人不敢买的东西

253
00:09:15,620 --> 00:09:17,850
这就是当你发现它们严重被低估时如何获得机会

254
00:09:17,850 --> 00:09:20,450
问题是当你成为逆向投资者

255
00:09:20,450 --> 00:09:23,049
并买入严重被低估的资产

256
00:09:23,049 --> 00:09:25,070
通常处于下行趋势中

257
00:09:25,070 --> 00:09:27,090
没错，通常处于下行趋势

258
00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:27,850
即使价格已经很低

259
00:09:27,850 --> 00:09:31,230
低价在短期内可能变得更便宜

260
00:09:31,230 --> 00:09:36,470
这也是为什么许多伟大投资者在短期内

261
00:09:36,470 --> 00:09:38,610
它们可能比市场下跌得更多

262
00:09:38,610 --> 00:09:42,500
这就是为低价买入付出的代价

263
00:09:42,500 --> 00:09:45,350
这就是作为逆向投资者的代价

264
00:09:45,350 --> 00:09:52,190
但长期来看这样做能让回报远超市场

265
00:09:52,750 --> 00:09:54,240
这里有个有趣的事实

266
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:54,820
现在

267
00:09:54,820 --> 00:10:01,480
你知道在十三年期间，许多散户投资者在他的共同基金中投资

268
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:02,649
马格纳基金

269
00:10:02,649 --> 00:10:10,460
你知道超过50%的投资者在该基金中亏损

270
00:10:10,460 --> 00:10:11,419
想想这个

271
00:10:11,419 --> 00:10:16,139
我说他的基金是史上表现最好的基金

272
00:10:16,139 --> 00:10:22,460
但超过半数投资者在投入后亏损

273
00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:25,500
为什么因为大多数情况下

274
00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:26,639
大多数投资者

275
00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:29,340
你们认为他们是什么时候投资这个基金的

276
00:10:29,340 --> 00:10:31,899
他们在一波上涨后投资

277
00:10:31,899 --> 00:10:33,679
在大幅上涨之后

278
00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,490
所有人都会涌入这里投入资金

279
00:10:36,490 --> 00:10:39,149
好的，当他们投入所有资金后会发生什么

280
00:10:39,149 --> 00:10:41,009
然后基金暴跌55%

281
00:10:41,009 --> 00:10:41,570
6个百分点

282
00:10:41,570 --> 00:10:41,769
他们惊呼

283
00:10:41,769 --> 00:10:42,409
天啊

284
00:10:42,409 --> 00:10:45,899
我们完了，他们立即卖出

285
00:10:45,899 --> 00:10:46,980
导致亏损

286
00:10:46,980 --> 00:10:49,039
整个循环不断重复

287
00:10:49,039 --> 00:10:50,139
基金再次上涨

288
00:10:50,139 --> 00:10:50,539
他们说

289
00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:50,840
好吧

290
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,120
他又成功了对吧

291
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:53,080
他又表现良好

292
00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:53,980
于是他们在这里买入

293
00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:55,000
在他表现良好后

294
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:56,399
然后下跌27%

295
00:10:56,399 --> 00:10:56,879
天啊

296
00:10:56,879 --> 00:10:57,799
他又失灵了

297
00:10:57,799 --> 00:11:00,070
基金在这里暴跌，他们又在那里买入

298
00:11:00,070 --> 00:11:00,889
在这里卖出

299
00:11:00,889 --> 00:11:01,549
在那里买入

300
00:11:01,549 --> 00:11:02,470
他们在这里出售

301
00:11:02,470 --> 00:11:05,210
这就是为什么他超过一半的客户亏损了

302
00:11:05,210 --> 00:11:06,570
所以我到底在说什么

303
00:11:06,570 --> 00:11:10,529
我要表达的观点是你可以投资最好的基金

304
00:11:10,529 --> 00:11:11,769
最好的etf

305
00:11:11,769 --> 00:11:13,828
你可以挑选最好的公司

306
00:11:13,828 --> 00:11:15,188
但你仍可能亏损

307
00:11:15,188 --> 00:11:16,428
如果你高价买入

308
00:11:16,428 --> 00:11:18,028
当所有人都兴奋时

309
00:11:18,028 --> 00:11:20,818
而在大家恐慌时低价卖出

310
00:11:20,818 --> 00:11:22,178
所以你可以再次看到

311
00:11:22,178 --> 00:11:29,809
70%的投资成功归因于心理因素，归根结底是管理情绪

312
00:11:29,809 --> 00:11:31,169
如果你想成为优秀投资者

313
00:11:31,169 --> 00:11:35,970
我强烈推荐阅读摩根士丹利的研究文章

314
00:11:35,970 --> 00:11:38,769
由迈克尔·莫尔撰写于

315
00:11:38,769 --> 00:11:39,928
以及丹·卡勒甘

316
00:11:39,928 --> 00:11:41,168
这篇文章是去年撰写的

317
00:11:41,168 --> 00:11:44,808
2025年5月21日发布的两页研究报告

318
00:11:44,808 --> 00:11:48,960
讨论股市回撤的现实

319
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:49,320
现在

320
00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:50,679
我将快速总结

321
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:50,960
现在

322
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,179
这是文章中的一些惊人事实

323
00:11:53,179 --> 00:11:54,970
我将为您朗读第一条

324
00:11:54,970 --> 00:12:00,110
他们指出回撤是长期收益的入场费

325
00:12:00,110 --> 00:12:04,029
从1985年到2024年，六千五百只

326
00:12:04,029 --> 00:12:09,049
美国股票的中位数最大回撤达85%

327
00:12:09,049 --> 00:12:09,970
这意味着

328
00:12:09,970 --> 00:12:17,690
市场中位数股票在上涨过程中会下跌85%

329
00:12:17,690 --> 00:12:19,019
好的现在

330
00:12:19,019 --> 00:12:21,259
即使是最优秀的公司

331
00:12:21,259 --> 00:12:22,600
前六家财富

332
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,850
创造像苹果

333
00:12:24,850 --> 00:12:25,549
微软

334
00:12:25,549 --> 00:12:26,289
英伟达

335
00:12:26,289 --> 00:12:28,529
字母表、亚马逊和埃克森美孚

336
00:12:28,529 --> 00:12:29,649
这些伟大公司

337
00:12:29,649 --> 00:12:30,889
顶尖中的顶尖

338
00:12:30,889 --> 00:12:35,318
平均最大回撤达80%

339
00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:39,019
这说明即使你买入全球最佳公司

340
00:12:39,019 --> 00:12:41,678
你也必须心理准备价格下跌

341
00:12:41,678 --> 00:12:44,519
市场价格可能下跌80%

342
00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:45,820
有时

343
00:12:45,820 --> 00:12:46,600
好的

344
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:47,600
例如

345
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,860
亚马逊从1999年到2001年下跌95%

346
00:12:51,860 --> 00:12:54,519
最终现在价值2.1万亿美元

347
00:12:55,879 --> 00:13:00,710
最近亚马逊在2022年下跌56%

348
00:13:00,710 --> 00:13:01,110
是的

349
00:13:01,110 --> 00:13:02,669
我一直坚持持有

350
00:13:02,669 --> 00:13:03,110
它

351
00:13:03,110 --> 00:13:07,840
2024年和2025年下跌了33%

352
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,570
事实上两次，今年更是下跌了23%

353
00:13:11,570 --> 00:13:12,990
所以再次

354
00:13:12,990 --> 00:13:15,399
你需要专注如一

355
00:13:15,399 --> 00:13:18,059
坚定的承诺与纯粹

356
00:13:18,059 --> 00:13:23,129
意志力去持有优质公司以获取良好回报

357
00:13:23,129 --> 00:13:23,750
没错

358
00:13:23,750 --> 00:13:25,850
亚马逊增长了258倍

359
00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:29,289
相比标普500指数增长567%

360
00:13:29,289 --> 00:13:33,470
标普500指数增长了567%

361
00:13:33,470 --> 00:13:34,240
好的

362
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,320
有一位叫韦斯·格雷的人

363
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,289
他写了一篇标题很可爱的文章

364
00:13:39,289 --> 00:13:42,690
他的文章名为《即使上帝也会被解雇》

365
00:13:42,690 --> 00:13:45,309
你可以去谷歌搜索并阅读这篇文章

366
00:13:45,309 --> 00:13:46,190
非常有趣

367
00:13:46,190 --> 00:13:48,809
在这篇文章中他进行了研究

368
00:13:48,809 --> 00:13:53,350
即使构建一个拥有完美知识的组合

369
00:13:53,350 --> 00:13:56,719
比如上帝般拥有绝对知识

370
00:13:57,739 --> 00:14:00,289
选择表现最佳的股票

371
00:14:00,289 --> 00:14:07,789
你的组合仍会经历76%的回撤并伴随五次

372
00:14:07,789 --> 00:14:12,210
30%的回撤才能跑赢市场

373
00:14:12,929 --> 00:14:14,590
想想这个事实

374
00:14:14,590 --> 00:14:19,629
这意味着回撤并不能证明你错误

375
00:14:19,629 --> 00:14:23,470
这是权益投资的结构性特征

376
00:14:23,470 --> 00:14:24,490
换句话说

377
00:14:24,490 --> 00:14:27,710
如果你是股票投资者

378
00:14:27,990 --> 00:14:29,990
投资组合下跌20%

379
00:14:29,990 --> 00:14:30,470
30%

380
00:14:30,470 --> 00:14:34,200
50%

381
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,080
并非因为你愚蠢

382
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:38,159
不一定是你操作失误

383
00:14:38,159 --> 00:14:39,360
即使做对所有事情

384
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,849
买入优质公司

385
00:14:43,849 --> 00:14:45,339
仍会发生这是市场本质

386
00:14:45,339 --> 00:14:45,719
当然

387
00:14:45,719 --> 00:14:49,119
这是否意味着随便买入任何股票

388
00:14:49,119 --> 00:14:49,479
不

389
00:14:49,479 --> 00:14:53,970
若买入亏损公司的劣质股票

390
00:14:53,970 --> 00:14:56,269
当然会下跌且难以回本

391
00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:57,068
好的

392
00:14:57,068 --> 00:14:59,249
我之前多次强调

393
00:14:59,249 --> 00:15:03,089
市场中99%的股票不可投资

394
00:15:03,089 --> 00:15:03,668
我再次强调

395
00:15:03,668 --> 00:15:05,688
市场中99%的股票不可投资

396
00:15:05,688 --> 00:15:10,649
因为这些公司缺乏持续营收、利润和自由现金流增长

397
00:15:10,649 --> 00:15:12,649
可能负债率极高

398
00:15:12,649 --> 00:15:14,929
他们的利润率较低

399
00:15:14,929 --> 00:15:16,309
他们不具备高资本回报率

400
00:15:16,309 --> 00:15:18,068
他们缺乏强大的商业模式

401
00:15:18,068 --> 00:15:19,708
必须避开这些公司

402
00:15:19,708 --> 00:15:20,729
百分之九十九的情况

403
00:15:20,729 --> 00:15:26,568
我们只愿投资那些基本面极强的1%优质公司

404
00:15:26,568 --> 00:15:28,820
高权益回报率

405
00:15:28,820 --> 00:15:32,080
收入、利润和现金流持续增长

406
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:33,279
他们拥有

407
00:15:33,279 --> 00:15:34,059
呃

408
00:15:34,059 --> 00:15:35,279
保守的债务水平

409
00:15:35,279 --> 00:15:37,080
他们具备强大商业模式

410
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:37,340
没错

411
00:15:37,340 --> 00:15:39,379
这些就是我们要找的

412
00:15:39,379 --> 00:15:41,549
无论短期如何下跌

413
00:15:41,549 --> 00:15:43,330
长期终将反弹

414
00:15:43,330 --> 00:15:46,629
我们必须确保只持有优质公司

415
00:15:47,750 --> 00:15:52,730
文章还提到，若投资组合出现回撤

416
00:15:52,730 --> 00:15:54,610
不能盲目说

417
00:15:54,610 --> 00:15:56,190
一切都会好起来

418
00:15:56,190 --> 00:15:56,860
不

419
00:15:56,860 --> 00:16:02,730
需检查投资组合中的公司是否优质

420
00:16:03,049 --> 00:16:07,419
并判断股价下跌是否因周期性原因

421
00:16:07,419 --> 00:16:07,799
现在

422
00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:09,039
什么是周期性原因

423
00:16:09,039 --> 00:16:12,860
则说明下跌是短期因素导致

424
00:16:12,860 --> 00:16:14,700
市场恐慌

425
00:16:14,700 --> 00:16:15,700
市场恐慌

426
00:16:15,700 --> 00:16:16,320
呃

427
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:17,589
业绩不及预期

428
00:16:17,589 --> 00:16:18,068
那么

429
00:16:18,068 --> 00:16:21,048
这没问题，长期会恢复

430
00:16:21,048 --> 00:16:22,548
但若股价下跌

431
00:16:22,548 --> 00:16:24,129
因长期趋势

432
00:16:24,129 --> 00:16:27,950
长期削弱护城河

433
00:16:27,950 --> 00:16:31,929
收入利润呈现长期衰退

434
00:16:31,929 --> 00:16:34,049
丧失竞争优势

435
00:16:34,049 --> 00:16:34,809
是的

436
00:16:34,809 --> 00:16:37,330
在这种情况下我们无法确定

437
00:16:37,330 --> 00:16:41,399
需卖出这些公司并投资优质企业

438
00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:43,039
这也需要做到

439
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:45,299
例如以微软为例，尽管

440
00:16:45,299 --> 00:16:48,279
尽管股价暂时下跌

441
00:16:48,279 --> 00:16:50,279
但若观察基本面

442
00:16:50,279 --> 00:16:51,720
基本面正在增长

443
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:52,840
收入持续增长

444
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,500
营业利润增长

445
00:16:54,500 --> 00:16:55,740
现金流增长

446
00:16:55,740 --> 00:17:00,950
这些公司我会长期持有并在回撤时加仓

447
00:17:00,950 --> 00:17:03,169
但像卡夫亨氏这样的公司

448
00:17:03,169 --> 00:17:03,830
你可以看到

449
00:17:03,830 --> 00:17:04,150
你知道的

450
00:17:04,150 --> 00:17:05,690
随着股价下跌

451
00:17:05,690 --> 00:17:08,250
基本面随着时间恶化

452
00:17:08,250 --> 00:17:11,440
你可以看到收入正缓慢进入长期衰退

453
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,049
你可以看到营业利润在下降

454
00:17:14,049 --> 00:17:16,890
你可以看到自由现金流不稳定

455
00:17:16,890 --> 00:17:19,130
这些是我们想退出的

456
00:17:19,130 --> 00:17:20,888
这就是伯克希尔

457
00:17:20,888 --> 00:17:21,548
呃

458
00:17:21,548 --> 00:17:22,969
还削减了卡夫的法律费用

459
00:17:22,969 --> 00:17:23,368
亨氏

460
00:17:23,368 --> 00:17:24,568
当他们意识到

461
00:17:24,568 --> 00:17:24,749
是的

462
00:17:24,749 --> 00:17:26,608
这是一直的长期衰退

463
00:17:26,608 --> 00:17:28,348
作为投资者，我告诉人们

464
00:17:28,348 --> 00:17:29,929
你无法避免回撤

465
00:17:29,929 --> 00:17:31,969
不可避免会有些蠢货

466
00:17:31,969 --> 00:17:32,469
人们说

467
00:17:32,469 --> 00:17:35,449
但你为什么不提前卖出避免回撤

468
00:17:35,449 --> 00:17:36,808
现在你可以低价回购

469
00:17:37,808 --> 00:17:40,108
这让我想起一个有趣的暂停案例

470
00:17:40,108 --> 00:17:40,969
我想展示给你看

471
00:17:40,969 --> 00:17:41,368
这发生在

472
00:17:41,368 --> 00:17:43,159
嗯，杰夫

473
00:17:43,159 --> 00:17:44,058
他是一位基金经理

474
00:17:44,058 --> 00:17:45,818
他的客户曾给他

475
00:17:45,818 --> 00:17:47,419
发了一条短信

476
00:17:47,419 --> 00:17:47,838
你说

477
00:17:49,398 --> 00:17:50,118
我的股票怎么样

478
00:17:50,118 --> 00:17:53,130
所以杰夫说你和市场同步下跌了1%

479
00:17:53,130 --> 00:17:55,230
然后客户说好吧

480
00:17:55,230 --> 00:17:59,950
为什么你不能在市场下跌前卖出全部再低价买回

481
00:17:59,950 --> 00:18:02,400
我可能需要换顾问

482
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,759
这就是我不替人理财的原因

483
00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,160
因为我可能会自毁

484
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:07,599
如果遇到这样的客户

485
00:18:07,599 --> 00:18:08,660
这是人性使然

486
00:18:08,660 --> 00:18:10,000
总是会有这种后悔

487
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:10,160
哦

488
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:11,000
我当时应该这么做

489
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,279
我当时应该那样做

490
00:18:12,279 --> 00:18:14,119
就像我的一些学生

491
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:14,740
他们会说

492
00:18:14,740 --> 00:18:14,960
哦

493
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:15,160
你知道的

494
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,019
我本应在一个月前高位卖出

495
00:18:17,019 --> 00:18:20,730
现在股价下跌了，这非常危险

496
00:18:20,730 --> 00:18:21,250
嗯

497
00:18:21,250 --> 00:18:22,069
让我解释原因

498
00:18:22,069 --> 00:18:23,130
对的，再说一次

499
00:18:23,130 --> 00:18:24,789
现在市场下跌了9%

500
00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:25,769
还有一些我的学生

501
00:18:25,769 --> 00:18:28,970
事实上发生的情况是当市场上涨时

502
00:18:28,970 --> 00:18:29,490
我们已经完成了

503
00:18:29,490 --> 00:18:29,930
我们已经上涨了

504
00:18:29,930 --> 00:18:30,390
我们已经完成了

505
00:18:30,390 --> 00:18:30,829
我们已经上涨了

506
00:18:30,829 --> 00:18:31,190
他们说

507
00:18:31,190 --> 00:18:31,950
嘿亚当

508
00:18:31,950 --> 00:18:32,549
你知道为什么

509
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:33,529
难道我们不在这里卖吗

510
00:18:33,529 --> 00:18:35,150
你知道因为你不需要上涨

511
00:18:35,150 --> 00:18:36,130
也可能下跌

512
00:18:36,130 --> 00:18:37,150
我说不

513
00:18:37,150 --> 00:18:38,390
我就继续持有

514
00:18:38,390 --> 00:18:40,009
我已经做了很多年

515
00:18:40,009 --> 00:18:41,650
现在它下跌了

516
00:18:41,650 --> 00:18:42,109
正如你看到的

517
00:18:42,109 --> 00:18:42,970
我早就告诉过你

518
00:18:42,970 --> 00:18:45,609
所以我告诉过你应该在那里看

519
00:18:46,130 --> 00:18:46,549
现在

520
00:18:46,549 --> 00:18:52,130
这样思考的问题在于一旦你相信上涨之后

521
00:18:52,130 --> 00:18:53,339
我接到一个电话

522
00:18:53,339 --> 00:18:58,420
未来和过去会有很多这样的情况

523
00:18:58,420 --> 00:19:01,440
如果你那样做就会错过市场最大涨幅

524
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:02,500
让我举个例子

525
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:02,759
对的

526
00:19:02,759 --> 00:19:04,480
所以如果你总是有这种恐惧

527
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:04,680
哦

528
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:05,680
每次市场上涨时

529
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:06,599
我就会赶紧退出

530
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,989
然后想象这个人

531
00:19:09,989 --> 00:19:11,189
市场上涨时他会离开

532
00:19:11,189 --> 00:19:11,828
天啊

533
00:19:11,828 --> 00:19:13,669
它要下跌了赶紧卖出

534
00:19:13,669 --> 00:19:14,229
结果会怎样

535
00:19:14,229 --> 00:19:17,660
他们错过那边的大涨或这里下跌

536
00:19:17,660 --> 00:19:18,519
他们恐慌了

537
00:19:18,519 --> 00:19:19,440
情况还会继续走低

538
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:20,059
他们卖出

539
00:19:20,059 --> 00:19:23,170
错过大涨然后市场回稳

540
00:19:23,170 --> 00:19:23,430
嗯

541
00:19:23,430 --> 00:19:24,869
再回溯历史看看

542
00:19:24,869 --> 00:19:25,859
同样的情况对吧

543
00:19:25,859 --> 00:19:26,539
嗯

544
00:19:26,539 --> 00:19:27,619
这里开始上涨

545
00:19:27,619 --> 00:19:28,940
然后下跌他们就会想

546
00:19:28,940 --> 00:19:29,380
天啊

547
00:19:29,380 --> 00:19:31,940
我要在一波上涨后退出，然后在这里卖出

548
00:19:31,940 --> 00:19:33,819
他们错过了最佳买入时机

549
00:19:34,019 --> 00:19:39,319
所以我能告诉你这个原因是因为我多年前曾这样做过

550
00:19:39,319 --> 00:19:40,779
随着时间推移市场会迎来上涨

551
00:19:40,779 --> 00:19:42,480
我会预判一波下跌

552
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,279
所以我退出试图在更低点回补

553
00:19:45,279 --> 00:19:48,539
我可以告诉你，退出后四到五次

554
00:19:48,539 --> 00:19:49,779
它确实开始下跌

555
00:19:49,779 --> 00:19:51,589
但在重新入场前

556
00:19:51,589 --> 00:19:53,349
它迅速反弹上涨

557
00:19:53,349 --> 00:19:56,069
然后我就失去了股票

558
00:19:56,069 --> 00:19:57,309
然后它上涨三到四

559
00:19:57,309 --> 00:19:58,409
五倍涨幅

560
00:19:58,409 --> 00:20:01,980
而我只能获得30%的收益

561
00:20:01,980 --> 00:20:03,799
过去我常常频繁进出

562
00:20:03,799 --> 00:20:04,259
跳进市场

563
00:20:04,259 --> 00:20:04,660
跳出市场

564
00:20:04,660 --> 00:20:05,839
在优质公司间频繁进出

565
00:20:05,839 --> 00:20:07,500
但这样我也赚到了钱

566
00:20:07,500 --> 00:20:08,579
但后来我发现

567
00:20:08,579 --> 00:20:11,200
如果长期持有优质公司

568
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:11,819
确实如此

569
00:20:11,819 --> 00:20:14,869
多年来的大幅波动

570
00:20:14,869 --> 00:20:15,690
你知道今天

571
00:20:15,690 --> 00:20:17,730
我可能早已成为亿万富翁

572
00:20:17,730 --> 00:20:20,029
你知道我会比现在更富有

573
00:20:20,029 --> 00:20:21,609
这就是一个教训

574
00:20:21,609 --> 00:20:23,529
我花了多年才学会

575
00:20:23,529 --> 00:20:24,029
现在

576
00:20:24,029 --> 00:20:24,930
另一个常见问题

577
00:20:24,930 --> 00:20:26,269
人们常问我

578
00:20:26,269 --> 00:20:30,049
那为什么你不调整投资组合

579
00:20:30,049 --> 00:20:32,369
如果你认为市场处于回调

580
00:20:32,369 --> 00:20:36,549
或熊市阶段，对于不了解对冲概念的你们

581
00:20:36,549 --> 00:20:39,630
对冲就像购买保险

582
00:20:39,630 --> 00:20:39,950
没错

583
00:20:39,950 --> 00:20:41,410
如果你认为市场将下跌

584
00:20:41,410 --> 00:20:42,069
你买入

585
00:20:42,069 --> 00:20:44,009
购买看跌期权

586
00:20:44,009 --> 00:20:45,450
当市场下跌时

587
00:20:45,450 --> 00:20:47,710
你的看跌期权会获利

588
00:20:47,710 --> 00:20:48,609
或者你可以

589
00:20:48,609 --> 00:20:50,289
当然押注市场

590
00:20:50,289 --> 00:20:51,549
或者购买反向ETF

591
00:20:51,549 --> 00:20:56,279
过去我经常进行对冲操作

592
00:20:56,599 --> 00:20:58,839
现在我不常对冲了

593
00:20:58,839 --> 00:21:02,640
原因是对冲并非免费且

594
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:03,519
当你对冲时

595
00:21:03,519 --> 00:21:05,359
即买入反向ETF

596
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:06,160
你押注市场下跌

597
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,589
你买入看跌期权

598
00:21:07,829 --> 00:21:08,369
是的

599
00:21:08,369 --> 00:21:12,829
我认为五分之一的时间市场会大幅下跌

600
00:21:12,829 --> 00:21:16,420
你的看跌期权对冲策略将获利

601
00:21:16,420 --> 00:21:20,529
但四到五次对冲后

602
00:21:20,529 --> 00:21:23,190
市场强劲反弹

603
00:21:23,190 --> 00:21:25,970
你的看跌期权亏损

604
00:21:25,970 --> 00:21:28,210
你的空头头寸亏损

605
00:21:28,210 --> 00:21:34,429
长期来看对冲实际上会降低收益

606
00:21:34,429 --> 00:21:42,089
这就是为什么投机者无法长期战胜市场

607
00:21:42,089 --> 00:21:44,190
他们无法击败标普500指数

608
00:21:44,190 --> 00:21:47,910
也无法超越巴菲特或彼得·林奇的投资组合

609
00:21:47,910 --> 00:21:49,289
因为他们不做对冲

610
00:21:49,289 --> 00:21:50,089
例如

611
00:21:50,089 --> 00:21:54,750
这是巴菲特与对冲基金团队著名的赌约

612
00:21:54,750 --> 00:21:57,210
他赌十年期

613
00:21:57,210 --> 00:22:01,390
对冲基金无法简单战胜定投策略

614
00:22:01,390 --> 00:22:05,569
这场赌约从2008年至2017年

615
00:22:05,569 --> 00:22:08,289
反对巴菲特的人

616
00:22:08,289 --> 00:22:09,309
他被允许

617
00:22:09,309 --> 00:22:09,769
嗯

618
00:22:09,769 --> 00:22:14,730
挑选五家顶级对冲基金

619
00:22:14,730 --> 00:22:16,009
存在这个基金

620
00:22:16,009 --> 00:22:20,910
基金A、B、C、D、E与标普500竞争

621
00:22:20,910 --> 00:22:23,250
后者不进行对冲

622
00:22:23,250 --> 00:22:26,069
十年后

623
00:22:26,069 --> 00:22:27,690
所有对冲基金

624
00:22:27,690 --> 00:22:31,970
最终收益21%

625
00:22:31,970 --> 00:22:32,690
42%

626
00:22:32,690 --> 00:22:33,609
87%

627
00:22:33,609 --> 00:22:34,089
2.8%

628
00:22:34,089 --> 00:22:34,829
8%

629
00:22:34,829 --> 00:22:36,339
27%

630
00:22:36,339 --> 00:22:39,980
远逊于标普500

631
00:22:39,980 --> 00:22:44,839
该指数十年收益125%

632
00:22:44,839 --> 00:22:47,559
我不是说对冲基金不好

633
00:22:47,559 --> 00:22:49,789
也不是说不该对冲

634
00:22:49,789 --> 00:22:51,869
我的问题是现在你的目标是什么

635
00:22:51,869 --> 00:22:55,150
如果你调整投资组合或选择对冲基金

636
00:22:55,150 --> 00:22:55,599
是的

637
00:22:55,599 --> 00:22:56,319
确实

638
00:22:56,319 --> 00:22:59,359
可能降低组合波动性

639
00:22:59,359 --> 00:22:59,859
换句话说

640
00:22:59,859 --> 00:23:02,119
减少回撤幅度

641
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,449
确实

642
00:23:03,449 --> 00:23:06,169
但降低回撤的成本

643
00:23:06,169 --> 00:23:10,190
是长期收益也会下降

644
00:23:10,470 --> 00:23:11,869
这是更近期的研究

645
00:23:11,869 --> 00:23:12,630
嗯

646
00:23:12,630 --> 00:23:13,750
完成的研究

647
00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:16,638
而这又是一个五到六年的周期

648
00:23:16,638 --> 00:23:20,078
从2020年1月到2024年

649
00:23:21,159 --> 00:23:21,939
你可以再次看到

650
00:23:23,779 --> 00:23:29,829
我们回报6.7%，而买入的标普指数回报14.5%

651
00:23:29,829 --> 00:23:30,609
结论

652
00:23:30,609 --> 00:23:33,559
如果你的投资组合出现类似我的回撤

653
00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:35,119
咬牙坚持

654
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,859
像个男人一样承受吧

655
00:23:37,859 --> 00:23:39,279
但要利用这个机会

656
00:23:39,279 --> 00:23:40,779
如果你有闲置资金

657
00:23:40,779 --> 00:23:42,180
如果你仓位未满

658
00:23:42,180 --> 00:23:43,888
这是买入机会

659
00:23:43,888 --> 00:23:48,608
在经历暂时回撤的优质公司中

660
00:23:48,608 --> 00:23:52,490
如果你想了解具体哪些公司有吸引力

661
00:23:52,490 --> 00:23:55,109
我很快会分享另一个视频

662
00:23:55,109 --> 00:23:57,089
所以订阅我的频道

663
00:23:57,089 --> 00:23:58,890
以便即时收到通知

664
00:23:58,890 --> 00:24:00,450
当新视频上线时

665
00:24:00,450 --> 00:24:01,970
我马上就会发布

666
00:24:01,970 --> 00:24:04,089
但我要以这个小

667
00:24:04,089 --> 00:24:04,529
嗯

668
00:24:04,529 --> 00:24:05,289
段

669
00:24:05,289 --> 00:24:06,940
数据与你分享

670
00:24:06,940 --> 00:24:08,859
你知道这是中期选举年

671
00:24:08,859 --> 00:24:11,019
中期选举将在11月举行

672
00:24:11,019 --> 00:24:13,619
正如我今年早些时候所说

673
00:24:13,619 --> 00:24:17,559
中期选举年通常非常动荡

674
00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:19,859
今年并不罕见

675
00:24:19,859 --> 00:24:23,380
这是中期选举年的正常表现

676
00:24:23,380 --> 00:24:25,009
如果你查看

677
00:24:25,009 --> 00:24:25,750
嗯

678
00:24:25,750 --> 00:24:28,869
自1950年以来的每一次中期选举年

679
00:24:28,869 --> 00:24:32,589
这些都是中期选举年的回撤数据

680
00:24:32,589 --> 00:24:35,349
有些年份下跌了12%

681
00:24:35,349 --> 00:24:39,349
负4%、负2%、6%、负20%、负25%、负35%

682
00:24:39,349 --> 00:24:43,808
计算中期选举年的平均回撤

683
00:24:43,808 --> 00:24:49,190
标普500的平均回撤达16%

684
00:24:49,509 --> 00:24:53,049
而我们目前仅下跌9%

685
00:24:53,049 --> 00:24:54,990
不必感到意外

686
00:24:54,990 --> 00:24:56,230
如果接下来还有

687
00:24:56,230 --> 00:24:58,950
可能再跌7%

688
00:24:58,950 --> 00:25:00,289
或再跌8%

689
00:25:00,289 --> 00:25:04,619
好消息是历史上回撤后

690
00:25:04,619 --> 00:25:06,059
一年后

691
00:25:06,059 --> 00:25:11,019
市场每次都会实现两位数涨幅

692
00:25:11,019 --> 00:25:15,630
中期回撤后的次年

693
00:25:15,630 --> 00:25:17,309
所以请订阅

694
00:25:17,309 --> 00:25:18,289
在我的下个视频中

695
00:25:18,289 --> 00:25:21,839
我将讨论可关注的行业和股票

696
00:25:21,839 --> 00:25:23,539
如果你想观看我的最新视频

697
00:25:23,539 --> 00:25:24,960
请点击订阅按钮

698
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:25,869
现在就点击

699
00:25:25,869 --> 00:25:26,849
点击铃铛图标

700
00:25:26,849 --> 00:25:28,289
以便即时收到通知

701
00:25:28,289 --> 00:25:30,589
当我上传最新视频时

702
00:25:30,589 --> 00:25:32,930
如果你想了解我的在线课程

703
00:25:32,930 --> 00:25:35,179
请访问piranha profits.com

704
00:25:35,179 --> 00:25:38,459
我们将学习如何投资和分析金融市场

705
00:25:38,459 --> 00:25:41,388
并从全球各地创收

706
00:25:41,388 --> 00:25:44,808
如果你想加入我的实时财富学院计划

707
00:25:44,808 --> 00:25:48,769
前往wealthacademyglobal.com了解更多学习详情

708
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:51,920
我是亚当·库尔

709
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:53,819
愿市场与你同在

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