【全哥爱分享】新作上线，快来看看！

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小博啊

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摆在你面前的有三种不同类型的酒

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你都知道它是什么品牌吗

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从左边数第一个什么品牌茅台

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第二个呢50年的茅台哇

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哦第三个呢是迈凯伦

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迈凯伦是威士忌对吧对

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那第四个呢我不知道这是啥

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这是这念什么牌子呀

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不知道是烈酒

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反正大偶大偶

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那大欧的话

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你知道它属于哪个公司的吗

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不知道它属于澳大利亚分父母公司嗯

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叫傅艺嗯

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如果你投资的话

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你会投哪个公司呀

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啊选迈凯伦

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你为什么选迈凯伦呢

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因为他很认真

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他怎么认真了

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觉得酒不认真吗

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嗯它可以符合威士忌的嗯年轻人的未来哦

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你觉得你们年轻人未来都喜欢喝威士忌啊

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啊我个人觉得吧哈如果选一个投资方式啊

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我会从三个角度

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第一呢商业模式角度

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第二呢就是它的估值角度

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第三个呢从股东回报

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还有他管理层角度

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那首先呢你看如果商业模式角度来选

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你觉得哪个公司的商业模式最好

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茅台对呀

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他的茅台的酒呢你看越放越好

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喝越贵越值钱

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越年份越老越值钱是吧

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你茅台50年一瓶酒的话将近3万块

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你看我从这个cos口买的这个一升的茅台啊

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是529还是39美金

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加上税的话将近550

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对不对

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那30年

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昨天啊那个汽车配件的叔叔送的这一瓶的话

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3万块送过

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我很开心呀

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是不是我都不舍得喝

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放那里珍藏一下

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但是呢你看这个红酒

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你觉得它放的时间长了好喝吗

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好喝对啊

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它的储存是有年份的对吧

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而且这个红酒还有什么特点

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它很难标准化

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就每一批的葡萄不一样

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你做出来的口感也不一样

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所以为什么红酒的市值不高吗

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这个富裕集团的市值才30多亿美元嗯

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是不是啊

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对那这个迈卡伦你觉得它值多少钱

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它值75

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迈凯伦的市值呢也就是几10亿啊

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应该是三四十亿美金吧

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但他没有上市

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所以你买不了他的股票

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所以从商业模式的角度

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你看是不是茅台的商业模式最好

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那第二个角度呢

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我们看他的回报率角度

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你觉得这些公司谁的回报率最高

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就分红

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谁的分红率最高

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嗯不知道这分红啊

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这个副E啊

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分红率最高

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九个点的分红就是这个DLL这个母公司啊

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啊他为什么股息率高呢

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是因为第一个呢这家公司啊

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他也没有资本开支太多

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懂吗

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就是说白了第一不会研发

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第二不需要扩大规模

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第三啊

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这个红酒的成本也很低

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毛利也很高

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对不对

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赚了钱只要不扩张都可以分掉

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也不影响经营

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对不对

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所以这里面股息率最高呢

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反而是这个复议

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然后第二高的是谁啊

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是茅台没错

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茅台现在是四个点的股息

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你觉得四个点的股息对当下的这种投资来讲

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好还是不好好

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现在银行的股投资回报率多少

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银行的分红多少

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不知道不到一个点了啊

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所以你要是从这个分红角度

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是不是茅台作为这种啊国债的模式做法还可以

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是不是对

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那第三个呢用迈凯伦对迈凯伦没有上市

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但如果说你要是做投资的话

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你是不是还要看他的长期的增长性

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长期的估值

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对不对

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对

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你这里面谁的估值最高呀

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是

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茅台没错

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茅台的估值最高现在是20倍左右

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你知道谁的矛盾

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谁的估值最低啊

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是拉萨人

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估值最低呢是这个大偶

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就这个副翼

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他现在估值不到十倍啊

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不到十倍估值啊

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所以说你看这几年

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这个烈酒的趋势是变好还是变差了

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最近这45年变差了

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没错都变差了

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无论是茅台

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无论是威士忌

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还无论是红酒

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这个估值啊

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都腰斩在腰斩了

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他为什么这个酒啊

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他这个趋势变差了呢

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什么原因呢

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你觉得嗯感觉现在因为那个禁酒它又来了嗯

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第一中国是禁酒令

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对不对对

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欧美呢减肥年轻人就要减肥

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还有一个呢就是喝酒

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对所以你觉得如果未来想投资白酒的话

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你用什么方式投白酒才能写

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那个箱子上面写着会有害健康

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好喝酒有害健康

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所以以前能喝的人好像喝的也少了

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是不是对

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那你觉得如果未来想投资白酒的人

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要用什么方式投才会赚到钱呢

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嗯慢慢投哎

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第一个呢你就不能梭哈白酒了对吧

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你要做资产配置

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对不对

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第二个呢你要把当成一种国债啊

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比如说比放银行强就行了

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最关键你知道啥吗

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嗯就是你要选对能够持续带来股东回报的公司

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对吧

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你不要选那些快倒闭的

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你知道这两年你知道烈酒公司啊

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烈酒公司你知道股价是多少吗

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很多公司快倒闭了

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所以未来呢又是一个变成了一个头部品牌

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集中度越来越高

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腰部品牌呢越来越难受

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然后呢

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如果你的产品呢不能跟上未来年轻人的需求

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是不是就被市场淘汰了

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所以说酒类的投资呢

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是一定不能用成长股的逻辑

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而是要用什么逻辑

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用躺平分红的逻辑

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对不对嗯

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