【Ticker Symbol YOU】我正在疯狂扫货具备极致定价权的核心标的

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一场重大市场冲击即将来临，华尔街对此毫无准备

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媒体对此视而不见

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而它的规模远超大多数投资者的认知

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因为它将同时从两个方向冲击市场

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裂痕已经开始显现

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但几乎无人关注

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我叫亚历克斯

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我在MIT担任电气工程师和AI研究员八年

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这帮助我提前发现英伟达等股票

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台积电和美光科技

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远在市场之前

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这正是投资者获利的绝佳布局

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只要知道该关注哪些股票并懂得贪婪

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当他人恐惧时

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这就是我将在视频中展示的内容

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因为这才是致富的稳妥之道

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你的时间很宝贵

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让我们直接进入正题

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市场正面临两线作战

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第一战场显而易见

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霍尔木兹海峡已封锁六十天

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过去两个月油价上涨超50%

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这将推高我们投资公司的成本并压缩利润

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伊朗提出结束冲突的方案

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但美国予以拒绝

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接下来的11天至关重要

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总统可无需国会批准部署美军

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持续至多60天

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特朗普总统的60天窗口将于5月11日到期

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这意味着三大重大事件即将冲击市场

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特朗普要么在剩余时间升级冲突

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撤除美军封锁

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或争取国会授权延期

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每个选项都将对油价和全球供应链产生巨大影响

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这些因素尚未被市场定价

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拖延问题绝非长久之计

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正如我之前所说

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裂痕已经开始显现

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台湾97%能源依赖进口

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40%电力来自中东天然气

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台积电仅存约11天液化天然气库存

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全球30%氦气供应来自卡塔尔

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氦气用于冷却制造全球先进芯片的机器

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若氦气供应中断

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芯片生产也将停滞

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目前芯片厂仍在运转

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但企业需数月重建库存却仅需数日耗尽

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若海峡持续封锁

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供应链面临更多延误

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保险和油价进一步上涨，利润持续压缩

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第二个市场冲击完全不同，而且明显得多

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这也是媒体未能发现关联的原因

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但如今OpenAI的估值已接近一万亿

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他们的AI模型是需求增长的核心驱动力

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持续推高AI概念股的价格

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但最新消息显示OpenAI数月来未达营收和用户目标

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现在他们正与马斯克对簿公堂

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这场审判可能彻底改写整个AI行业的未来

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让我提醒几个关键细节

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展示他们处境有多么岌岌可危

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山姆·阿尔特曼签署了协议

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承诺OpenAI投入约一点

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这些AI基建投资协议飙升

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另一边的股票

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我已在之前的视频中详细分析过这些协议

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但我整理了这份总结表格

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让你看清整体局势

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有些协议远比表面更疯狂

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AMD协议

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OpenAI有权以每股一美分收购AMD公司10%

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若达成部署里程碑

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随着AMD股价上涨

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这笔协议价值将远超纸面金额

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承诺金额达1400亿美元

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OpenAI当前营收年化为250亿美元

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这还未扣除运营成本

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你知道一个年营收130亿美元的公司

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如何承担1400亿美元的支出承诺

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你明白吗

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四千亿美元的支出承诺

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你听说过这些批评吗

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我们营收远超这个数字第二点布拉德

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如果你想出售股份

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我帮你找买家

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我足够

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马斯克的诉讼加剧了这场危机

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要求法院强制OpenAI恢复非营利性质

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要求全面更换管理层

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并要求赔偿134亿美元

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返还至OpenAI的非营利分支

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营利部门承担1400亿美元债务

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非营利组织无法上市

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微软130亿美元持股将化为乌有

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若马斯克胜诉

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现实来看

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我认为不会发生

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但中间方案仍可能重创OpenAI

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法院可能允许其保持营利性质

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但需支付60亿美元罚金

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五亿美元或更多捐赠给非营利分支

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OpenAI去年在十三亿美元营收中亏损八亿美元

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这张支票足以让他们破产，远在另一张之前

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尽管如此，标普

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五百指数和纳斯达克均创下历史新高

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我自2016年起一直在投资英伟达等股票

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这种实际发生情况与市场定价之间的巨大差距

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正形成有史以来最大的买入机会

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这是我近年来见过的

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只要做好准备和自我保护

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说到这个

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并更改你的数字位置

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这就是Surfshark的作用

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本视频的赞助商

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Surfshark是一款超快且易于使用的

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只需一个账户即可保护自己和全家

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他们还提供Surfshark警报等附加功能

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若你的邮箱

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信用卡或个人信息在数据泄露中被泄露

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简直是救星

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许多在线商店会根据你的位置提价

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但使用Surfshark

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总能以最佳价格购买机票等高价商品

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酒店房间和租车

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如果你关心家庭隐私并喜欢省钱

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请访问Surfshark官网

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Slash ticker开启七天免费试用并获赠四个月

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Surfshark提供30天无理由退款

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通过下方链接尝试，无风险

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好的

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接下来谈谈保护投资组合

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这并不意味着恐慌

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今天抛售股票明天抢购低点

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而是基于数据和事实做出明智决策而非直觉

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接下来分析市场数据

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首先看重大崩盘的规模及持续时间

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这是第一信托在彭博社的图表

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展示标普500在牛熊市中的表现

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追溯至第二次世界大战

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X轴为时间，Y轴为总回报率

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结果显示牛市平均持续四年

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而熊市仅持续十一个月

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牛市平均回报率达151%

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熊市平均亏损约3%

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熊市平均亏损约3%

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熊市平均亏损约3.2%

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换句话说

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牛市持续时间是熊市的四倍以上

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而回报率几乎是熊市跌幅的五倍

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这就是为什么百万富翁会在股市崩盘中诞生

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这是买入优质股票的最佳折扣机会

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这也是我专注长期投资的原因

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市场从底部反弹到顶部需要数年时间

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我想尽可能多地提供数据支持

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换个角度来看

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这里有一项将熊市分为两部分的研究

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1956年的下跌与复苏阶段

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标普500指数在15个月内下跌21%

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随后又用11个月从底部反弹并创出新高

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对比疫情初期的情况

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市场单月暴跌34%

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仅用五个月就完成复苏

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平均熊市从底部到触顶需约13个月

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再需四个月完全恢复

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无论怎样分析数据

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买入机会持续数月

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而非几分钟

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这给明智投资者充足时间规划行动

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建立现金仓位并准备逢低吸纳

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当他人恐慌时

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这才是真金白银的积累之道

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这也是为何不应恐慌

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Excel

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你反而应该开始买入

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当血流成河时

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即使部分血迹属于你自己

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但如何判断何时恐惧何时贪婪

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答案是更多数据

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这是CNN恐惧与贪婪指数

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下方附有链接

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方便你自行收藏

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这是一个0到100的单一数值

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当指数偏低时

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投资者正在恐慌

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当指数偏高时

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投资者变得贪婪

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并为股票支付过高价格

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若放眼一年时间线

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情况更加有趣

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投资者目前接近一年期贪婪纪录高位

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但贪婪开始逆转

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裂痕逐渐显现

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但冲击尚未定价

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这正是理想布局时机

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若你准备抓住机会

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顺便说一句，当他人即将恐慌时

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查看过去一年中恐惧与贪婪指数中的两个底部

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11月20日和3月30日

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它们与标普500指数两次最大下跌底部完全吻合

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标普500指数

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这就是为什么我们要依赖数据而非直觉判断

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而当前数据显示投资者仍保持贪婪

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尽管股市正在两线作战

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在供应端因霍尔木兹海峡关闭60天

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在需求端因OpenAI未达目标并陷入诉讼

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现在你已掌握完整背景和数据

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让我们谈谈如何靠实力致富而非运气

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随着这一切的发展

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如果你觉得我值得

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请点赞并订阅频道

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这对我帮助很大并激励我制作更多此类视频

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每当市场多线作战时

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优秀投资者化身狙击手

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这意味着他们做到三点

214
00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,470
华尔街其他人不会首先

215
00:10:40,470 --> 00:10:41,769
他们占据高位

216
00:10:41,769 --> 00:10:43,490
以便纵观全局

217
00:10:43,490 --> 00:10:44,629
他们拉远镜头

218
00:10:44,629 --> 00:10:47,818
分析数据并明确自身定位

219
00:10:47,818 --> 00:10:51,739
这就是我们刚才做的，预见市场即将面临的两次冲击

220
00:10:51,739 --> 00:10:55,078
并借助历史数据判断可能走势

221
00:10:55,078 --> 00:10:56,309
下一秒

222
00:10:56,309 --> 00:10:58,149
狙击手锁定目标

223
00:10:58,149 --> 00:11:00,830
保持关注的股票短名单

224
00:11:00,830 --> 00:11:03,029
观察这些股票的动向

225
00:11:03,029 --> 00:11:05,049
他们不会关注所有股票

226
00:11:05,049 --> 00:11:07,370
只专注优质标的

227
00:11:07,370 --> 00:11:07,889
第三点

228
00:11:07,889 --> 00:11:10,450
等待最佳时机出手

229
00:11:10,450 --> 00:11:11,289
他们保持耐心

230
00:11:11,289 --> 00:11:12,970
当其他人恐慌时

231
00:11:12,970 --> 00:11:14,990
当恐惧贪婪指数闪烁

232
00:11:14,990 --> 00:11:15,960
极度恐惧时

233
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,000
他们已严阵以待

234
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:21,089
并准备买入长期跟踪的股票

235
00:11:21,089 --> 00:11:23,928
这就是如何靠实力致富

236
00:11:23,928 --> 00:11:28,440
目前只有两类股票值得纳入目标

237
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:34,210
首先是拥有强大定价权的公司

238
00:11:34,210 --> 00:11:36,889
其次是营收规模庞大的企业

239
00:11:36,889 --> 00:11:38,450
巨额自由现金流

240
00:11:38,450 --> 00:11:42,230
及充足资金应对市场冲击

241
00:11:42,230 --> 00:11:44,849
现在逐一分析我的目标

242
00:11:44,849 --> 00:11:48,960
第一目标股票是Micron，代码MU

243
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:50,879
该股自我关注以来涨幅近五倍

244
00:11:50,879 --> 00:11:52,259
我仍认为其被低估

245
00:11:52,259 --> 00:11:54,519
这就是我的选择

246
00:11:54,519 --> 00:11:57,620
美光是市场上唯一一家美国内存公司

247
00:11:57,620 --> 00:12:00,179
市场由三星和SK海力士主导

248
00:12:00,179 --> 00:12:02,279
这两家都是韩国公司

249
00:12:02,279 --> 00:12:06,399
韩国通过霍尔木兹海峡获取了超过一半的氦气

250
00:12:06,399 --> 00:12:08,000
如果海峡保持封锁

251
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:12,078
韩国内存生产将比美光更早放缓

252
00:12:12,078 --> 00:12:16,078
而美光是唯一能作为第二供应源的公司

253
00:12:16,078 --> 00:12:17,538
用于高带宽内存

254
00:12:17,538 --> 00:12:22,940
正是英伟达下一代AI芯片所需的关键内存

255
00:12:22,940 --> 00:12:24,840
如果伊朗冲突持续

256
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,940
韩国芯片制造商面临供应压力

257
00:12:27,940 --> 00:12:30,259
美光能对相同产品提高价格

258
00:12:30,259 --> 00:12:33,639
客户名单将排到街角

259
00:12:33,639 --> 00:12:35,899
这就是我说的定价权

260
00:12:35,899 --> 00:12:38,879
华尔街尚未意识到的关键点是

261
00:12:38,879 --> 00:12:42,659
美光的市盈率低于八倍

262
00:12:42,659 --> 00:12:47,389
成为整个AI供应链中最便宜的大市值公司

263
00:12:47,389 --> 00:12:52,029
预计明年利润将增长近100%

264
00:12:52,029 --> 00:12:53,828
下次股价下跌时

265
00:12:53,828 --> 00:12:55,308
这是第一个

266
00:12:55,308 --> 00:12:57,428
我选择第二只股票

267
00:12:57,428 --> 00:12:57,908
我正在观察

268
00:12:57,908 --> 00:12:59,168
是ASML

269
00:12:59,168 --> 00:13:00,688
地球上唯一

270
00:13:00,688 --> 00:13:04,309
制造最先进芯片所需机器的公司

271
00:13:04,309 --> 00:13:05,309
并非最佳

272
00:13:05,309 --> 00:13:07,129
唯一拥有紫外

273
00:13:07,129 --> 00:13:12,798
光刻机是人类制造的最复杂设备之一

274
00:13:12,798 --> 00:13:13,918
台积电

275
00:13:13,918 --> 00:13:18,889
三星和英特尔无法生产先进芯片

276
00:13:18,889 --> 00:13:20,750
这就是现在的重要性

277
00:13:20,750 --> 00:13:23,039
即使供应链受阻

278
00:13:23,039 --> 00:13:28,730
全球所有芯片制造商仍需持续采购ASML设备

279
00:13:28,730 --> 00:13:31,480
目前没有可替代的大规模方案

280
00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,720
他们无法延迟采购

281
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,120
否则将落后于竞争对手

282
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,839
无法与ASML议价

283
00:13:38,839 --> 00:13:40,658
因为没有第二供应商

284
00:13:40,658 --> 00:13:43,119
他们于4月15日公布财报

285
00:13:43,119 --> 00:13:46,909
正值伊朗战争期间及ASML销售期

286
00:13:46,909 --> 00:13:50,129
营收和指引均增长

287
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:52,710
尽管面临持续供应冲击

288
00:13:52,710 --> 00:13:54,730
当客户别无选择时

289
00:13:54,730 --> 00:13:56,190
你不会有问题

290
00:13:56,190 --> 00:13:59,889
这让我想到台积电

291
00:13:59,889 --> 00:14:01,720
股票代码TM

292
00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,200
我研究台积电股票已五年

293
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,529
尽管股价上涨五倍

294
00:14:07,529 --> 00:14:09,909
我的信心反而更坚定

295
00:14:09,909 --> 00:14:14,070
台积电生产全球约90%的最先进芯片

296
00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:15,769
每一台英伟达GPU

297
00:14:15,769 --> 00:14:17,470
每一台苹果处理器

298
00:14:17,470 --> 00:14:19,690
以及中间几乎所有东西

299
00:14:19,690 --> 00:14:21,480
如果台积电放缓

300
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,899
整个AI经济也会随之放缓

301
00:14:24,899 --> 00:14:26,220
正如我之前所说

302
00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:29,299
台湾进口了97%的能源

303
00:14:29,299 --> 00:14:32,559
台积电现场储备了11天天然气

304
00:14:32,559 --> 00:14:34,609
还有约一周的氦气储备

305
00:14:34,609 --> 00:14:38,269
如果海峡封锁足够久耗尽库存

306
00:14:38,269 --> 00:14:40,629
台积电必须开始筛选

307
00:14:40,629 --> 00:14:42,229
哪些订单可以执行

308
00:14:42,229 --> 00:14:44,830
他们会优先满足高利润

309
00:14:44,830 --> 00:14:45,789
客户需求

310
00:14:45,789 --> 00:14:47,099
其余订单将被延迟

311
00:14:47,099 --> 00:14:48,578
他们将收取更高费用

312
00:14:48,578 --> 00:14:53,159
因为他们将有限产能分配给愿意支付的客户

313
00:14:53,159 --> 00:14:55,120
如果ASML制造烤箱

314
00:14:55,120 --> 00:15:00,240
那么台积电掌控厨房并持续服务最高利润客户

315
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:01,559
就是英伟达

316
00:15:01,559 --> 00:15:04,029
这也是为什么英伟达在我的名单上

317
00:15:04,029 --> 00:15:04,570
看

318
00:15:04,570 --> 00:15:06,679
我知道我经常提到他们

319
00:15:06,679 --> 00:15:08,340
但有充分理由

320
00:15:08,340 --> 00:15:12,399
英伟达是整个AI革命的核心

321
00:15:12,399 --> 00:15:15,830
视频中的其他公司提供原料

322
00:15:15,830 --> 00:15:17,110
或供应成品

323
00:15:17,110 --> 00:15:19,529
但英伟达在负责烹饪

324
00:15:19,529 --> 00:15:22,970
英伟达占据数据中心GPU市场90%以上份额

325
00:15:22,970 --> 00:15:24,070
无其他公司能望其项背

326
00:15:24,070 --> 00:15:27,039
但这里为何成为目标

327
00:15:27,039 --> 00:15:28,919
在市场特殊时刻

328
00:15:28,919 --> 00:15:30,879
当天然气和氦气库存

329
00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:33,600
在韩国和台湾耗尽时

330
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:39,230
视频将获得所有晶圆厂的最高优先级

331
00:15:39,230 --> 00:15:45,419
因为他们是最高利润客户且供应链下游依赖他们

332
00:15:45,419 --> 00:15:49,059
投资者需注意英伟达是最敏感的股票

333
00:15:49,059 --> 00:15:50,659
若OpenAI局势恶化

334
00:15:50,659 --> 00:15:53,240
AI若超大规模支出收缩

335
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,860
英伟达将首当其冲

336
00:15:55,860 --> 00:15:58,990
但若AI需求保持或增长

337
00:15:58,990 --> 00:16:01,429
英伟达将捕获大部分收益

338
00:16:01,429 --> 00:16:05,000
若市场恐慌导致英伟达股价暴跌

339
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,139
我将准备再次布局

340
00:16:07,139 --> 00:16:07,919
好的

341
00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:11,480
除了市场定价权最强的企业

342
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,279
我还重点关注

343
00:16:13,279 --> 00:16:15,220
营收规模庞大的企业

344
00:16:15,220 --> 00:16:19,480
巨额自由现金流和足够抵御风暴的储备

345
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:20,289
亚马逊

346
00:16:20,289 --> 00:16:21,129
微软

347
00:16:21,129 --> 00:16:25,190
谷歌和Meta平台是购买英伟达芯片的公司

348
00:16:25,190 --> 00:16:27,690
他们拥有台积电制造的自有芯片

349
00:16:27,690 --> 00:16:29,809
由阿斯麦机器制造

350
00:16:29,809 --> 00:16:32,019
使用美光生产的内存

351
00:16:32,019 --> 00:16:35,860
我们刚刚走过的整个厨房在很大程度上

352
00:16:35,860 --> 00:16:42,179
正是因为这四家公司愿意向亚马逊云服务的数百万企业供应这些芯片

353
00:16:42,179 --> 00:16:43,039
微软

354
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:43,620
Azure

355
00:16:43,620 --> 00:16:44,549
谷歌云

356
00:16:44,549 --> 00:16:47,009
并在Meta平台进行广告投放

357
00:16:47,009 --> 00:16:51,419
这就是大多数投资者反复犯的错误

358
00:16:51,419 --> 00:16:56,500
他们认为公司规模大就意味着没有增长空间

359
00:16:56,500 --> 00:16:59,440
所以让我们像往常一样看看数据

360
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,559
如果你一年前买入Meta股票

361
00:17:01,559 --> 00:17:03,659
今日已上涨20%

362
00:17:03,659 --> 00:17:05,279
如果你买入亚马逊股票

363
00:17:05,279 --> 00:17:05,759
相反

364
00:17:05,759 --> 00:17:09,259
涨幅达40%，远超整体市场

365
00:17:09,259 --> 00:17:12,509
而如果你像我一直在高喊的那样买入谷歌

366
00:17:12,509 --> 00:17:16,069
一年内涨幅达180%

367
00:17:16,069 --> 00:17:20,039
这只从未让人彻夜难眠的股票

368
00:17:20,039 --> 00:17:23,150
这就是我们触底时的核心要点

369
00:17:23,150 --> 00:17:25,190
当市场开始复苏时

370
00:17:25,190 --> 00:17:25,809
机构

371
00:17:25,809 --> 00:17:29,670
不会直接从债券转向市场最激进的股票

372
00:17:29,670 --> 00:17:32,029
他们会逐步增加风险

373
00:17:32,029 --> 00:17:34,809
因此这些巨头股成为首选

374
00:17:34,809 --> 00:17:38,369
这四家公司创造数千亿美元营收

375
00:17:38,369 --> 00:17:40,930
数百亿美元现金流

376
00:17:40,930 --> 00:17:45,779
他们有足够的韧性应对未来任何冲突

377
00:17:45,779 --> 00:17:52,019
这些正是大资金回流股市时首选的公司

378
00:17:52,019 --> 00:17:56,619
在回流前持有它们正是早期布局

379
00:17:56,619 --> 00:17:59,250
从而在谷歌等股票上翻倍获利

380
00:17:59,250 --> 00:18:01,930
若马斯克法庭案对Open不利

381
00:18:01,930 --> 00:18:05,809
AI领域每家公司都有自身战略

382
00:18:05,809 --> 00:18:08,650
自有模型和客户群体

383
00:18:08,650 --> 00:18:10,849
微软收购了Inflection

384
00:18:10,849 --> 00:18:12,420
谷歌拥有Gemini

385
00:18:12,420 --> 00:18:14,180
Meta拥有Llama和Muse

386
00:18:14,180 --> 00:18:17,339
Spark和亚马逊重仓Anthropic

387
00:18:17,339 --> 00:18:19,159
并拥有定制芯片

388
00:18:19,159 --> 00:18:22,578
若OpenAI需求受挫不会消失

389
00:18:22,578 --> 00:18:25,038
将转向能交付的公司

390
00:18:25,038 --> 00:18:26,700
这就是超大规模玩家

391
00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:27,799
若非模型

392
00:18:27,799 --> 00:18:29,920
则肯定转向基础设施

393
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,359
重大冲击即将来临

394
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,250
华尔街毫无准备

395
00:18:33,250 --> 00:18:36,329
因为它将同时从两个方向冲击市场

396
00:18:36,329 --> 00:18:38,509
媒体还没察觉到这一点

397
00:18:38,509 --> 00:18:40,380
但现在你发现了

398
00:18:40,380 --> 00:18:41,799
你占据了制高点

399
00:18:41,799 --> 00:18:42,960
你掌握了我的目标

400
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,779
甚至可能还有你自己的

401
00:18:44,779 --> 00:18:47,690
恐惧与贪婪指数会告诉你何时开火

402
00:18:47,690 --> 00:18:49,849
剩下的就是等待

403
00:18:49,849 --> 00:18:52,230
评论区告诉我你在关注哪些袜子

404
00:18:52,230 --> 00:18:56,950
以及当OpenAI诉讼和伊朗冲突持续时你的计划是什么

405
00:18:56,950 --> 00:18:59,910
如果你想看看我正在买入哪些股票来致富

406
00:18:59,910 --> 00:19:01,099
而不靠运气

407
00:19:01,099 --> 00:19:03,539
不管怎样都看看这个视频

408
00:19:03,539 --> 00:19:04,319
感谢观看

409
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:06,900
下次再见，这里是Ticker Symbol

410
00:19:06,900 --> 00:19:07,339
你

411
00:19:07,339 --> 00:19:08,500
我是亚历克斯

412
00:19:08,500 --> 00:19:11,589
提醒你最好的投资就是

413
00:19:11,589 --> 00:19:13,109
就是你自己

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