BV1XeAmzLETd · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:00,960 天啊，这些烟民 2 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:02,720 松饼又开始翻转了 3 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,879 女士们先生们，前后连贯不断 4 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:09,119 今天又有非常好的交易，公共账户又增加了二十五万美元 5 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:10,619 在公共账户里 6 00:00:10,619 --> 00:00:14,640 所以我们有很多股票正在大幅波动 7 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:15,960 大幅波动 8 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,219 Honest今日上涨超20% 9 00:00:18,219 --> 00:00:20,129 Revolve上涨近8% 10 00:00:20,129 --> 00:00:22,690 Celsius上涨约7%，服务现在 11 00:00:22,690 --> 00:00:25,750 它上涨到Shopify，我的特斯拉对冲也上涨了 12 00:00:25,750 --> 00:00:27,809 CRM为负 13 00:00:27,809 --> 00:00:31,129 昨夜盘后交易非常低迷 14 00:00:31,129 --> 00:00:33,460 但今日最终上涨约5% 15 00:00:33,460 --> 00:00:35,560 今天我们有很多股票要讨论 16 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:35,979 嗯 17 00:00:35,979 --> 00:00:37,060 有些机会是什么 18 00:00:37,060 --> 00:00:39,539 哪些股票有望继续大幅上涨 19 00:00:39,539 --> 00:00:40,759 以及类似的话题 20 00:00:40,759 --> 00:00:41,100 好的 21 00:00:41,100 --> 00:00:41,500 嗯 22 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:43,420 收盘后Dingo发布了财报 23 00:00:43,420 --> 00:00:43,979 多邻国 24 00:00:43,979 --> 00:00:45,619 我们来谈谈我的看法 25 00:00:45,619 --> 00:00:46,709 这些观点 26 00:00:46,709 --> 00:00:47,988 他们不想出现在这个视频里 27 00:00:47,988 --> 00:00:49,029 这非常重要 28 00:00:49,029 --> 00:00:54,789 巨头英伟达CEO黄仁勋谈软件股 29 00:00:54,789 --> 00:00:55,229 好的 30 00:00:55,229 --> 00:01:00,070 这是目前整个股市中最被低估的板块 31 00:01:00,070 --> 00:01:03,869 我认为现在应该引起大家注意 32 00:01:03,869 --> 00:01:05,489 应该引起很多人注意 33 00:01:05,489 --> 00:01:05,959 好的 34 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,959 AI对软件股的影响被高估了 35 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:09,659 丹尼 36 00:01:09,659 --> 00:01:10,439 艾德亚丹尼 37 00:01:10,439 --> 00:01:11,799 我期待回应这个观点 38 00:01:11,799 --> 00:01:14,120 如何判断软件股底部 39 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:15,599 我们一般讨论底部 40 00:01:15,599 --> 00:01:16,719 关于股市 41 00:01:16,719 --> 00:01:17,519 以及所有相关内容 42 00:01:17,519 --> 00:01:17,840 好的 43 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:18,799 感谢大家收看 44 00:01:18,799 --> 00:01:19,180 一如既往 45 00:01:19,180 --> 00:01:19,599 有一点 46 00:01:19,599 --> 00:01:21,599 只需要做一件事 47 00:01:21,599 --> 00:01:23,599 请点个赞 48 00:01:23,599 --> 00:01:25,319 请点个赞 49 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:26,539 这就是我需要的 50 00:01:26,539 --> 00:01:27,698 感谢你们的支持 51 00:01:27,698 --> 00:01:29,039 嗯，顺便也谢谢大家 52 00:01:29,039 --> 00:01:30,138 大家都订阅了频道 53 00:01:30,138 --> 00:01:32,099 我们现在到了 54 00:01:32,799 --> 00:01:34,200 我不知道有多少订阅者 55 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:35,819 最近我没在关注这个频道的订阅情况 56 00:01:35,819 --> 00:01:37,599 我知道我们达到了历史最高订阅量 57 00:01:37,599 --> 00:01:38,799 但这个数字很大 58 00:01:38,799 --> 00:01:39,859 我来查一下 59 00:01:39,859 --> 00:01:40,719 稍后看看 60 00:01:40,719 --> 00:01:43,469 我也感谢每一位在这里的你们 61 00:01:43,469 --> 00:01:46,799 另外如果你有访问xstocks.com的权限 62 00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:47,920 只是提醒一下 63 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:48,760 我确实发过这个 64 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:49,280 我说不太确定 65 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,039 如果你们看到千禧X网站的新改进版会议功能 66 00:01:53,039 --> 00:01:56,819 我们现在甚至在千禧X有实时会议 67 00:01:56,819 --> 00:01:59,319 我说我花了很多钱来实现这一切 68 00:01:59,319 --> 00:02:00,760 同时也感谢特雷弗 69 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:01,180 呃 70 00:02:01,180 --> 00:02:02,500 作为这个项目的负责人 71 00:02:02,500 --> 00:02:05,739 接下来三到六个月会有更多酷炫内容 72 00:02:05,739 --> 00:02:07,819 今年我在千禧X上投入了很多资金 73 00:02:07,819 --> 00:02:09,780 我正努力让它成为 74 00:02:09,780 --> 00:02:12,439 市场上最好的长期投资者工具 75 00:02:12,439 --> 00:02:16,319 在高级软件和一站式服务方面 76 00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:17,599 所以就是这样 77 00:02:17,599 --> 00:02:18,240 激动人心的时刻 78 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:19,680 如果你想访问千禧Xtalks 79 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,199 获取我的私密群组权限 80 00:02:21,199 --> 00:02:22,039 私密Discord 81 00:02:22,039 --> 00:02:22,259 聊天 82 00:02:22,259 --> 00:02:23,099 独家周视频 83 00:02:23,099 --> 00:02:23,719 所有优质内容 84 00:02:23,719 --> 00:02:24,919 那个置顶评论就在那里 85 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:26,180 你可以点击那个筛选表单 86 00:02:26,180 --> 00:02:29,110 看看是否适合加入我们 87 00:02:29,110 --> 00:02:29,689 好的 88 00:02:29,689 --> 00:02:30,469 好的 89 00:02:30,469 --> 00:02:31,310 女士们先生们 90 00:02:31,310 --> 00:02:33,590 现在聊聊股票吧 91 00:02:33,590 --> 00:02:34,310 我们想要它吗 92 00:02:34,310 --> 00:02:36,439 我们来分析这只股票 93 00:02:36,439 --> 00:02:38,719 这次走势让人震惊 94 00:02:38,719 --> 00:02:43,479 很多人因为股票在昨晚盘后下跌了约7% 95 00:02:43,479 --> 00:02:46,939 但今天却上涨了20%以上 96 00:02:46,939 --> 00:02:48,229 没错，大家可能在想 97 00:02:48,229 --> 00:02:51,110 你知道关于营收的情况吗 98 00:02:51,110 --> 00:02:52,210 我们都知道这个 99 00:02:52,210 --> 00:02:53,229 大家都清楚这个 100 00:02:53,229 --> 00:02:54,810 连祖母都知道这个对吧 101 00:02:54,810 --> 00:02:57,210 我们知道他们目前正在进行的业务正在重组 102 00:02:57,210 --> 00:02:58,909 他们正在退出一些不良业务 103 00:02:58,909 --> 00:02:59,590 他们之前参与的业务 104 00:02:59,590 --> 00:03:00,830 那些低利润率的业务 105 00:03:00,830 --> 00:03:03,650 在卡洛来之前就存在的老旧业务 106 00:03:03,650 --> 00:03:04,770 现任首席执行官 107 00:03:04,770 --> 00:03:05,969 就在公司面临 108 00:03:05,969 --> 00:03:07,789 你知道破产的风险时 109 00:03:07,789 --> 00:03:10,319 她彻底扭转了这家企业 110 00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:14,520 如今利润率令人惊叹，未来趋势如何 111 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,060 他们将使自己处于能够持续增长的位置 112 00:03:17,060 --> 00:03:18,639 让公司可持续发展 113 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:20,459 年复一年如此 114 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,080 简直是奇迹 115 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,219 说实话就是如此 116 00:03:24,219 --> 00:03:26,759 但我认为最重要的是股票回购 117 00:03:26,759 --> 00:03:28,379 现在这个 118 00:03:28,379 --> 00:03:29,259 这次回购 119 00:03:29,259 --> 00:03:31,399 他们宣布了两千万美元 120 00:03:31,399 --> 00:03:36,118 比普通公司宣布回购更具影响力 121 00:03:36,118 --> 00:03:37,310 原因在于 122 00:03:37,310 --> 00:03:38,990 假设你是英伟达 123 00:03:38,990 --> 00:03:41,530 如果正确实施回购 124 00:03:42,050 --> 00:03:43,090 如果你是英伟达 125 00:03:43,090 --> 00:03:44,110 进行一次回购 126 00:03:44,110 --> 00:03:46,829 你知道英伟达每天交易多少股 127 00:03:46,829 --> 00:03:48,068 来回波动不断 128 00:03:48,068 --> 00:03:49,229 数量巨大对吧 129 00:03:49,229 --> 00:03:50,588 所以特斯拉就像 130 00:03:50,588 --> 00:03:52,539 我们打算进行股票回购 131 00:03:52,539 --> 00:03:53,219 天啊 132 00:03:53,219 --> 00:03:54,419 人们正在交易特斯拉股票 133 00:03:54,419 --> 00:03:55,439 简直疯狂 134 00:03:55,439 --> 00:03:56,419 每天如此 135 00:03:56,419 --> 00:03:58,810 汉斯特并非高流动性股票 136 00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:00,530 在制作此视频前 137 00:04:00,530 --> 00:04:03,330 我查看了汉斯特的交易量 138 00:04:03,330 --> 00:04:06,389 在单日交易中 139 00:04:06,389 --> 00:04:09,949 日均交易量不足两万股 140 00:04:09,949 --> 00:04:10,969 股价约两美元 141 00:04:10,969 --> 00:04:12,310 大致如此 142 00:04:12,310 --> 00:04:13,370 计算一下这个数据 143 00:04:13,370 --> 00:04:14,870 数量其实不大 144 00:04:14,870 --> 00:04:19,500 如果每天要回购十万股 145 00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:24,370 或类似两万股用于回购 146 00:04:25,009 --> 00:04:27,089 这将是市场大买家 147 00:04:27,089 --> 00:04:29,189 成为最大买家 148 00:04:29,189 --> 00:04:31,300 对于这种规模的股票 149 00:04:31,300 --> 00:04:33,720 这就是为什么这次回购 150 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,459 我认为对汉斯特股价影响巨大 151 00:04:37,459 --> 00:04:41,310 继续前进，这其实非常 genius 152 00:04:41,310 --> 00:04:44,790 而且它的影响力远超普通股票 153 00:04:44,790 --> 00:04:45,209 比如 154 00:04:45,209 --> 00:04:45,670 假设 155 00:04:45,670 --> 00:04:47,319 苹果进行大规模回购 156 00:04:47,319 --> 00:04:47,519 你知道的 157 00:04:47,519 --> 00:04:50,000 每天有多少人在交易苹果股票 158 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,329 有多少基金在频繁买卖 159 00:04:52,329 --> 00:04:54,850 这只股票几乎没什么流动性 160 00:04:54,850 --> 00:04:55,970 当他们进行回购时 161 00:04:55,970 --> 00:04:58,779 这是市场上的大买家啊 162 00:04:58,779 --> 00:05:01,920 并且可以持续每日买入 163 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,060 周复一周 164 00:05:03,060 --> 00:05:03,899 月复一月 165 00:05:03,899 --> 00:05:06,649 好消息是如果他们再做两次 166 00:05:06,649 --> 00:05:08,408 假设他们用完这2500万 167 00:05:08,408 --> 00:05:09,149 假设他们这样做 168 00:05:09,149 --> 00:05:11,968 接下来3到6个月内回购大量股份 169 00:05:11,968 --> 00:05:12,968 并耗尽所有2500万 170 00:05:12,968 --> 00:05:13,709 2500万美元 171 00:05:13,709 --> 00:05:15,310 资产负债表上有大量现金 172 00:05:15,310 --> 00:05:18,769 这是未来业务应产生的资金 173 00:05:18,769 --> 00:05:20,230 他们完全可以 174 00:05:20,230 --> 00:05:21,750 然后再次进行两次 175 00:05:21,750 --> 00:05:23,189 2500万美元的回购 176 00:05:23,189 --> 00:05:27,649 Honest将持续保持上升势头 177 00:05:27,649 --> 00:05:28,129 但这并不意味着 178 00:05:28,129 --> 00:05:30,610 Honest每天都会上涨 179 00:05:30,610 --> 00:05:32,769 但将持续保持上升势头 180 00:05:32,769 --> 00:05:34,100 Rvlv 181 00:05:34,100 --> 00:05:35,680 女士们先生们 182 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,000 让我这么说 183 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:37,439 好的 184 00:05:37,439 --> 00:05:39,339 关于Rvlv股票 185 00:05:39,339 --> 00:05:40,829 Rv lv 186 00:05:40,829 --> 00:05:42,310 天啊 187 00:05:42,310 --> 00:05:44,709 看看这家公司的财务数据 188 00:05:45,829 --> 00:05:47,589 简直令人惊叹 189 00:05:47,589 --> 00:05:50,899 我在主频道视频中提到过Rvlv 190 00:05:50,899 --> 00:05:52,899 不知道你们是否关注主频道的财经教育 191 00:05:52,899 --> 00:05:54,120 我相信很多人都会欣赏 192 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:56,079 你们也在这里观看我的视频 193 00:05:56,079 --> 00:05:57,930 但当时我提到这支股票时 194 00:05:57,930 --> 00:05:59,990 大家注意到这家公司的财报了吗 195 00:05:59,990 --> 00:06:03,750 大家看到前七周的销售数据了吗 196 00:06:03,750 --> 00:06:08,250 大家意识到这正是Z世代女性的首选品牌 197 00:06:08,250 --> 00:06:11,230 天啊，想想这个世代未来 198 00:06:11,230 --> 00:06:11,850 嗯，你知道的 199 00:06:11,850 --> 00:06:13,290 将在未来十年二十年积累多少财富 200 00:06:13,290 --> 00:06:16,329 如果这个品牌能引起他们的共鸣 201 00:06:16,329 --> 00:06:17,529 天啊 202 00:06:17,529 --> 00:06:18,550 这太重大了 203 00:06:18,550 --> 00:06:20,298 所以rv lv 204 00:06:20,298 --> 00:06:22,158 这里有个很激动人心的机会 205 00:06:22,158 --> 00:06:22,978 摄氏度 206 00:06:22,978 --> 00:06:24,959 他们发布了财报 207 00:06:24,959 --> 00:06:25,738 如果我没记错的话 208 00:06:25,738 --> 00:06:26,718 我给他们 209 00:06:26,718 --> 00:06:28,119 我甚至可以查看这里 210 00:06:28,119 --> 00:06:35,240 我相信我给celsius打了B- 211 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:35,779 是的 212 00:06:35,779 --> 00:06:37,579 这里给celsius打了B- 213 00:06:37,579 --> 00:06:39,339 这是他们发布的财报 214 00:06:39,339 --> 00:06:40,000 如果我没记错的话 215 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:40,959 就是今天早上 216 00:06:40,959 --> 00:06:42,120 所以七百二十 217 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,560 从三百三十二万毛利到三百四十一万 218 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,129 从一百六十六万 219 00:06:47,129 --> 00:06:49,009 销售一般行政费用 220 00:06:49,009 --> 00:06:51,490 同比去年同一季度的二十三五或一八五 221 00:06:51,490 --> 00:06:54,170 业务增长到这个程度很正常 222 00:06:54,170 --> 00:06:55,209 他们有一笔一次性费用 223 00:06:55,209 --> 00:06:58,490 这里有个大额分销终止费 224 00:07:00,879 --> 00:07:04,139 这在本季度拖累了利润 225 00:07:04,139 --> 00:07:06,019 但营业利润达到二 226 00:07:06,019 --> 00:07:07,180 六百万美元正值 227 00:07:07,180 --> 00:07:09,819 相比去年同期的负十八万 228 00:07:09,819 --> 00:07:12,600 加上那八千万 229 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:13,939 这里有一笔一次性费用 230 00:07:13,939 --> 00:07:14,160 比如 231 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,230 现在简直太惊人了 232 00:07:16,230 --> 00:07:19,870 至于其他运营费用 233 00:07:19,870 --> 00:07:21,930 大约三十四万美元 234 00:07:21,930 --> 00:07:23,529 利息支出明显上升 235 00:07:23,529 --> 00:07:25,339 因为收购等因素 236 00:07:25,339 --> 00:07:26,540 这在拖累他们 237 00:07:26,540 --> 00:07:27,379 但最终 238 00:07:27,379 --> 00:07:28,740 净利润达到二 239 00:07:28,740 --> 00:07:32,899 四百万美元对比去年同期负十八万 240 00:07:32,899 --> 00:07:39,870 扣除优先股股息九一百一十万 241 00:07:39,870 --> 00:07:43,100 正净利润对比负二 242 00:07:43,100 --> 00:07:44,639 五百万去年同期 243 00:07:44,639 --> 00:07:46,399 Udps四美分对比十一美分 244 00:07:46,399 --> 00:07:47,420 B-级评价很合理 245 00:07:47,420 --> 00:07:48,100 总体而言他们 246 00:07:48,100 --> 00:07:52,040 他们有很大空间提升利润率 247 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:52,819 你知道的 248 00:07:52,819 --> 00:07:54,079 今年后半段 249 00:07:54,079 --> 00:07:56,220 然后到二七和二八年 250 00:07:56,220 --> 00:08:00,480 目前重点主要放在收入和毛利润上 251 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,459 对啊，正如我之前所说，这些数据非常稳健 252 00:08:04,459 --> 00:08:06,459 他们在净利润方面还有很多工作要做 253 00:08:06,459 --> 00:08:07,519 但天啊，像 254 00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:09,579 对于 Celsius 来说，前景一片光明 255 00:08:09,579 --> 00:08:11,920 整体而言非常令人兴奋 256 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:12,759 对于这只股票 257 00:08:12,759 --> 00:08:14,899 市场严重低估的股票 258 00:08:14,899 --> 00:08:15,579 在我看来 259 00:08:15,579 --> 00:08:17,079 非常被低估的服务 260 00:08:17,079 --> 00:08:19,000 今天看到了一些上涨动能 261 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,600 我们现在要讨论软件股 262 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:21,139 稍后会说到 263 00:08:21,139 --> 00:08:22,439 Salesforce 的交易 264 00:08:22,439 --> 00:08:24,408 这次交易规模巨大 265 00:08:24,408 --> 00:08:26,259 这确实很大 266 00:08:26,660 --> 00:08:29,389 各位但我们将拭目以待 267 00:08:29,389 --> 00:08:29,928 你知道的 268 00:08:29,928 --> 00:08:30,329 我们拭目以待 269 00:08:30,329 --> 00:08:30,749 呃 270 00:08:30,749 --> 00:08:31,709 接下来会发生什么 271 00:08:31,709 --> 00:08:32,249 你知道的 272 00:08:32,249 --> 00:08:33,649 这类股票未来走势如何 273 00:08:33,649 --> 00:08:34,908 人们可能会感到兴奋 274 00:08:34,908 --> 00:08:36,149 然后又抛售 275 00:08:36,149 --> 00:08:40,409 就像 Duolingo 的整体情况一样 276 00:08:40,409 --> 00:08:41,169 小小的叮叮 277 00:08:41,169 --> 00:08:42,500 他们发布了财报 278 00:08:43,048 --> 00:08:46,048 并如预期般交出一份 A+级利润表 279 00:08:46,048 --> 00:08:47,168 数据非常出色 280 00:08:47,168 --> 00:08:48,369 这就是 Duolingo 的特点 281 00:08:48,369 --> 00:08:48,668 比如 282 00:08:48,668 --> 00:08:50,948 这对投资者来说是个难题 283 00:08:50,948 --> 00:08:53,269 因为这家公司的数据非常亮眼 284 00:08:53,269 --> 00:08:54,269 堪称完美 285 00:08:54,269 --> 00:08:56,009 上季度是 A 级加 286 00:08:56,009 --> 00:08:58,350 本季度几乎每个季度都是 A+级 287 00:08:58,350 --> 00:08:59,879 在利润表方面 288 00:08:59,879 --> 00:09:00,440 但需注意 289 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,539 成功股票的因素有很多 290 00:09:02,539 --> 00:09:05,179 这些因素不完全取决于利润表 291 00:09:05,179 --> 00:09:05,659 没错 292 00:09:05,659 --> 00:09:08,129 但收入达到2.8亿美元 293 00:09:08,129 --> 00:09:09,720 2000万 vs 2.09亿美元 294 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:10,360 毛利润 295 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,440 2.05亿美元 vs 1.5亿美元 296 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:12,840 没错 297 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,519 总运营费用从1.36亿增至1.62亿 298 00:09:15,519 --> 00:09:16,360 这表现不错 299 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,620 因此营业利润激增至4亿美元 300 00:09:18,620 --> 00:09:21,659 去年同期同一季度的1300万美元中，有300万美元 301 00:09:21,659 --> 00:09:24,299 利息收入达到1150万美元 302 00:09:24,299 --> 00:09:25,539 相比去年同期的1060万美元 303 00:09:25,539 --> 00:09:27,039 税前收入500万美元 304 00:09:27,039 --> 00:09:29,200 400万美元对2200万美元 305 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:33,038 净利润4100万美元 vs 1390万美元 306 00:09:33,038 --> 00:09:35,438 多邻国整体表现亮眼 307 00:09:35,438 --> 00:09:40,629 但盘后股价暴跌超20% 308 00:09:40,629 --> 00:09:42,289 所以你认为 309 00:09:42,289 --> 00:09:43,240 为什么 310 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:44,919 像多邻国这样的公司 311 00:09:44,919 --> 00:09:46,659 发布这些优异财报后 312 00:09:46,659 --> 00:09:49,679 股价为何持续下跌 313 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,370 我认为股价已从高点下跌超80% 314 00:09:53,370 --> 00:09:54,330 从峰值以来 315 00:09:54,330 --> 00:09:55,590 去年这个时候 316 00:09:55,590 --> 00:09:57,629 女士们先生们去年 317 00:09:57,629 --> 00:09:59,210 原因在于 318 00:09:59,409 --> 00:10:03,850 观察他们的新增会员或新客户数量 319 00:10:03,850 --> 00:10:05,889 无论叫什么新用户 320 00:10:05,889 --> 00:10:08,549 增长大幅放缓 321 00:10:08,549 --> 00:10:09,629 他们当时 322 00:10:09,629 --> 00:10:11,419 比如一年前 323 00:10:11,419 --> 00:10:14,120 六个月前吸引了大量 324 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:14,639 你知道的 325 00:10:14,639 --> 00:10:18,379 新用户使用应用的情况已大幅减少 326 00:10:18,379 --> 00:10:19,679 就像图表显示的 327 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,279 他们仍在增加新用户 328 00:10:22,279 --> 00:10:26,500 但增速远低于六个月前水平 329 00:10:26,500 --> 00:10:27,240 十二个月前 330 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:28,240 十八个月前 331 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,559 这使股价陷入危险境地 332 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,839 人们担心未来 333 00:10:34,839 --> 00:10:36,599 比如两季度后 334 00:10:36,599 --> 00:10:37,558 三季后 335 00:10:37,558 --> 00:10:38,818 四季度后 336 00:10:38,818 --> 00:10:42,719 公司用户基数可能开始萎缩 337 00:10:42,719 --> 00:10:44,179 而非扩张 338 00:10:44,179 --> 00:10:46,240 这有充分依据 339 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:47,000 公平地说 340 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,559 新增用户数持续恶化 341 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,309 在吸引新用户方面 342 00:10:52,309 --> 00:10:53,830 若无法扭转局面 343 00:10:53,830 --> 00:10:57,250 公司面临的问题是 344 00:10:57,250 --> 00:11:01,799 若看销售与营销支出 345 00:11:01,799 --> 00:11:04,700 他们大幅增加了投入 346 00:11:04,700 --> 00:11:07,519 营销费用从2400万增至3400万 347 00:11:07,519 --> 00:11:11,720 销售与营销支出增加近1000万美元 348 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:16,159 却更难吸引大量新用户 349 00:11:16,159 --> 00:11:17,879 相比以往能力 350 00:11:17,879 --> 00:11:19,940 这就是多邻国带来的恐惧 351 00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:22,399 我希望我持有那两个olingo看跌期权 352 00:11:22,399 --> 00:11:25,000 这些股票现在价值 353 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:25,519 呃 354 00:11:25,519 --> 00:11:28,720 三十四万美元 355 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:29,990 女士们先生们 356 00:11:29,990 --> 00:11:31,490 我以五十万美元卖出 357 00:11:31,490 --> 00:11:33,269 大约几千美元赚了 358 00:11:33,269 --> 00:11:33,769 你知道的 359 00:11:33,769 --> 00:11:34,850 非常快速的利润 360 00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:35,970 但天啊 361 00:11:35,970 --> 00:11:40,350 如果我持有三十四万美元 362 00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:42,349 现在价值会是 363 00:11:43,068 --> 00:11:44,708 这简直是巨额财富 364 00:11:45,788 --> 00:11:46,470 哦好吧 365 00:11:46,470 --> 00:11:47,590 这就是生意成本 366 00:11:47,590 --> 00:11:48,029 没错 367 00:11:48,029 --> 00:11:48,389 好的 368 00:11:48,389 --> 00:11:49,769 我们来谈谈软件 369 00:11:49,769 --> 00:11:50,990 软件行业 370 00:11:50,990 --> 00:11:52,830 他们所说的软件末日 371 00:11:52,830 --> 00:11:54,009 看看律所 372 00:11:54,009 --> 00:11:55,710 网络安全公司上周 373 00:11:55,710 --> 00:12:00,710 而本周IBM股价单季度最大跌幅 374 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:02,940 市场是否过度反应 375 00:12:02,940 --> 00:12:06,100 还是投资者有充分理由认为 376 00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:06,320 呃 377 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:06,720 哦 378 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,279 这将彻底改变这些根深蒂固的行业 379 00:12:10,279 --> 00:12:13,330 这些行业早已根深蒂固 380 00:12:13,330 --> 00:12:15,589 我认为存在深层误解 381 00:12:15,589 --> 00:12:18,048 云计算确实具有革命性 382 00:12:18,048 --> 00:12:20,428 这是AI的拐点 383 00:12:20,428 --> 00:12:23,129 这是AI首次具备感知能力 384 00:12:23,129 --> 00:12:24,090 能够推理 385 00:12:24,090 --> 00:12:25,889 还能执行任务 386 00:12:25,889 --> 00:12:27,409 实际上能完成 387 00:12:27,409 --> 00:12:28,029 例如 388 00:12:28,029 --> 00:12:28,690 它能够 389 00:12:28,690 --> 00:12:29,090 你知道的 390 00:12:29,090 --> 00:12:29,990 编写软件 391 00:12:29,990 --> 00:12:31,870 为你创建网站 392 00:12:31,870 --> 00:12:35,289 为你安排行程 393 00:12:35,289 --> 00:12:37,779 并真正执行任务 394 00:12:37,779 --> 00:12:38,600 而这正是 395 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,440 这就是我们称之为代理的原因 396 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,860 它们本质上具有代理性 397 00:12:42,860 --> 00:12:44,700 哪些软件公司 398 00:12:44,700 --> 00:12:46,440 之所以令人兴奋 399 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,419 当然是因为它们能编写软件 400 00:12:48,419 --> 00:12:50,990 即将发生的是企业工具 401 00:12:50,990 --> 00:12:51,590 这个平台 402 00:12:51,590 --> 00:12:52,490 独立软件供应商 403 00:12:52,490 --> 00:12:53,230 SaaS公司 404 00:12:53,230 --> 00:12:54,250 工具公司 405 00:12:54,250 --> 00:12:58,860 他们将使用系统开发软件 406 00:12:58,860 --> 00:13:02,639 但企业不会自行开发软件 407 00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:05,720 他们会使用代理调用这些工具 408 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:10,419 因此很可能发生的是代理不会取代工具 409 00:13:10,419 --> 00:13:12,230 但代理会使用工具 410 00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:15,639 这就是我们说代理是工具使用者的原因 411 00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:16,940 为何要自己编写 412 00:13:16,940 --> 00:13:17,700 为何要编写 413 00:13:17,700 --> 00:13:18,940 重写浏览器 414 00:13:18,940 --> 00:13:21,019 当浏览器已存在只需使用它 415 00:13:21,019 --> 00:13:22,539 为何重写Excel 416 00:13:22,539 --> 00:13:23,399 当Excel 417 00:13:23,399 --> 00:13:23,759 已存在 418 00:13:23,759 --> 00:13:24,679 只需使用它 419 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,159 我们今天使用的所有工具 420 00:13:27,159 --> 00:13:30,679 无论是Cadence还是Synopsys或ServiceNow或SAP 421 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,159 这些工具存在有根本性原因 422 00:13:34,159 --> 00:13:41,429 AI将成为智能软件代理这些工具 423 00:13:41,429 --> 00:13:42,909 帮助我们更高效 424 00:13:42,909 --> 00:13:44,929 因此可能发生的是 425 00:13:44,929 --> 00:13:47,328 这非常反直觉 426 00:13:47,328 --> 00:13:48,568 在继续之前先说明 427 00:13:48,568 --> 00:13:49,889 他列举了很多内容 428 00:13:49,889 --> 00:13:51,769 我必须强调这一点 429 00:13:52,769 --> 00:13:54,700 你看到的那个人 430 00:13:54,700 --> 00:14:01,779 正是引发软件恐惧焦虑的主要原因 431 00:14:01,779 --> 00:14:04,259 因为大家担心所有岗位都会被取代 432 00:14:04,259 --> 00:14:05,419 等等 433 00:14:05,419 --> 00:14:11,529 因为他过去几年不断炒作 434 00:14:11,529 --> 00:14:13,559 谈论他的芯片 435 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,159 以及它们的特殊性 436 00:14:15,159 --> 00:14:17,159 如何改变世界 437 00:14:17,159 --> 00:14:20,470 你知道这些内容 438 00:14:20,470 --> 00:14:24,330 他确实是引发全球如此清晰担忧的最大原因 439 00:14:24,330 --> 00:14:28,909 他是无可争议的最大原因 440 00:14:28,909 --> 00:14:30,789 导致如此担忧 441 00:14:30,789 --> 00:14:32,169 因为他说服了所有人 442 00:14:32,169 --> 00:14:37,179 投入巨额资金采购他的芯片 443 00:14:37,179 --> 00:14:40,159 他坚信这是颠覆性变革 444 00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:42,519 而我们就在通用人工智能的拐点 445 00:14:42,519 --> 00:14:44,999 就像通用人工智能 446 00:14:44,999 --> 00:14:47,438 即将取代所有人 447 00:14:47,438 --> 00:14:47,759 你知道的 448 00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:49,559 所有人的工作 449 00:14:49,559 --> 00:14:51,279 因此大家纷纷得出这些结论 450 00:14:51,279 --> 00:14:51,480 啊 451 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:52,740 我们不再需要软件了 452 00:14:52,740 --> 00:14:53,480 哦你知道的 453 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:53,840 呃 454 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,039 没人会再有工作了 455 00:14:55,039 --> 00:14:56,659 白领阶层将不复存在 456 00:14:56,659 --> 00:15:00,049 他就是这个游戏的最大祸首 457 00:15:00,049 --> 00:15:01,110 这非常有趣 458 00:15:01,110 --> 00:15:03,769 现在他不得不自己压低价格 459 00:15:03,769 --> 00:15:06,610 实际上在努力解释 460 00:15:06,610 --> 00:15:07,350 不像这样 461 00:15:07,350 --> 00:15:09,230 这不会只是消除一切 462 00:15:09,230 --> 00:15:11,070 这在百分之百准确上 463 00:15:11,070 --> 00:15:15,279 它不会完全消除一切，你仍需要数据 464 00:15:15,279 --> 00:15:17,919 软件公司掌握着数据 465 00:15:17,919 --> 00:15:24,889 然后这些公司会将代理作为产品以多种方式销售 466 00:15:24,889 --> 00:15:26,690 在许多不同的 467 00:15:26,690 --> 00:15:27,629 你知道的 468 00:15:27,629 --> 00:15:29,590 他们销售的各种产品 469 00:15:29,590 --> 00:15:33,590 然后客户可以使用这些公司的产品 470 00:15:33,590 --> 00:15:37,700 接着LLM公司可以从SaaS公司获利 471 00:15:37,700 --> 00:15:40,720 公司在这个过程中充当中间商 472 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,340 这些是必要的 473 00:15:42,620 --> 00:15:44,019 总之 474 00:15:44,019 --> 00:15:46,539 在这里詹森真是有趣 475 00:15:46,539 --> 00:15:48,649 现在不得不解释为什么 476 00:15:48,649 --> 00:15:51,570 软件公司非常关键且不可或缺 477 00:15:51,570 --> 00:15:55,210 很可能因为我们公司有大量代理 478 00:15:55,210 --> 00:15:58,769 现在工具使用量将实际增加 479 00:15:59,809 --> 00:16:03,210 你可以到处看到 480 00:16:03,210 --> 00:16:05,710 我们使用的C编译器数量 481 00:16:05,710 --> 00:16:07,210 Python程序员的数量 482 00:16:07,210 --> 00:16:09,349 我们拥有的Python程序 483 00:16:09,349 --> 00:16:12,749 实例数量正在快速增长 484 00:16:12,749 --> 00:16:15,208 因为我们使用的代理数量 485 00:16:15,208 --> 00:16:17,049 这些工具在增加 486 00:16:17,049 --> 00:16:21,149 我有四万两千名生物员工 487 00:16:21,149 --> 00:16:24,429 我将拥有数十万数字员工 488 00:16:24,429 --> 00:16:27,450 我们将使用更多工具 489 00:16:27,450 --> 00:16:32,230 但这意味着你认为他们不会颠覆这些公司 490 00:16:32,230 --> 00:16:33,409 比如Salesforce 491 00:16:33,409 --> 00:16:34,529 或许多其他公司 492 00:16:34,529 --> 00:16:35,389 在过程中 493 00:16:35,389 --> 00:16:38,769 你认为他们仍会使用来自 494 00:16:38,769 --> 00:16:41,330 当前被市场出售的那些公司的工具 495 00:16:41,330 --> 00:16:43,730 当前被市场出售的那些公司 496 00:16:43,730 --> 00:16:46,110 我认为市场判断错了 497 00:16:46,110 --> 00:16:52,190 我认为这些公司很可能会推出 498 00:16:52,190 --> 00:16:54,570 运行在他们平台上的代理 499 00:16:54,570 --> 00:16:55,789 存在这些代理 500 00:16:55,789 --> 00:16:57,629 当然他们还没有被介绍 501 00:16:57,629 --> 00:17:01,929 他们已经有了这些产品，比如Salesforce现在就在销售 502 00:17:01,929 --> 00:17:03,769 他们现在已经开始从中盈利了 503 00:17:03,769 --> 00:17:04,390 不像 504 00:17:04,390 --> 00:17:04,549 啊 505 00:17:04,549 --> 00:17:06,109 三年后他们就能从中赚钱 506 00:17:06,109 --> 00:17:06,809 现在五年了 507 00:17:06,809 --> 00:17:08,309 不不今天 508 00:17:08,309 --> 00:17:08,910 嘿 509 00:17:08,910 --> 00:17:09,869 你能想象这笔钱的数量吗 510 00:17:09,869 --> 00:17:10,410 他们即将赚到 511 00:17:10,410 --> 00:17:11,150 两年后 512 00:17:11,150 --> 00:17:12,309 从四年后开始 513 00:17:12,309 --> 00:17:13,170 六年后 514 00:17:13,170 --> 00:17:14,490 现在正是服务时机 515 00:17:14,490 --> 00:17:15,650 所有这些公司比如 516 00:17:15,650 --> 00:17:16,390 并不是像 517 00:17:16,390 --> 00:17:17,829 他们只是突然 518 00:17:17,829 --> 00:17:18,710 然后就说垃圾 519 00:17:18,710 --> 00:17:20,509 让我们想办法在这里创造点东西 520 00:17:20,509 --> 00:17:20,789 不不 521 00:17:20,789 --> 00:17:21,829 他们已经启动了 522 00:17:21,829 --> 00:17:22,430 呃 523 00:17:22,430 --> 00:17:25,059 他们必须精通自己的领域 524 00:17:25,059 --> 00:17:27,980 没有人比Service Now更了解客户服务 525 00:17:27,980 --> 00:17:30,500 他们会开发出非常优秀的代理 526 00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:34,700 经过精细调优并针对现有工具的工作类型 527 00:17:34,700 --> 00:17:35,680 最终 528 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,130 另外啊 529 00:17:37,130 --> 00:17:43,940 我们需要工具完成工作并将信息以我们能理解的方式存回 530 00:17:43,940 --> 00:17:46,279 这就是我们所说的系统记录 531 00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:49,519 每个工具都有自己系统的记录 532 00:17:49,519 --> 00:17:54,680 这些系统记录存在是因为我们创建并使用它们 533 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,900 这样才能理解最终完整的信息 534 00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:01,000 因此这些系统记录仍是基准 535 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,269 它们将继续作为基准 536 00:18:03,269 --> 00:18:04,569 现在这些代理将 537 00:18:04,569 --> 00:18:05,269 你知道帮助 538 00:18:05,269 --> 00:18:06,049 他们会使用它 539 00:18:06,049 --> 00:18:10,819 并将填充使用平台现有工具的系统记录 540 00:18:10,819 --> 00:18:14,279 我认为一个有帮助的思维实验是 541 00:18:14,279 --> 00:18:19,160 想象有一天我们有了家庭机器人 542 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,609 机器人不太可能创造出新的烹饪艺术 543 00:18:23,609 --> 00:18:27,490 机器人只会阅读烹饪艺术手册并使用它 544 00:18:27,490 --> 00:18:32,309 与其想出新的微波加热方式 545 00:18:32,309 --> 00:18:34,710 机器人只会使用微波炉 546 00:18:34,710 --> 00:18:37,170 这些工具存在自有其道理 547 00:18:37,170 --> 00:18:39,180 所以听好 548 00:18:40,700 --> 00:18:41,299 精彩的观点 549 00:18:41,299 --> 00:18:42,329 刚刚提到的 550 00:18:42,329 --> 00:18:43,390 绝妙的观点 551 00:18:43,390 --> 00:18:44,829 为什么要这么麻烦 552 00:18:44,829 --> 00:18:49,289 假设十年后你的家里有一台特斯拉机器人 553 00:18:49,289 --> 00:18:49,799 好的 554 00:18:49,799 --> 00:18:51,119 我们这里有一台特斯拉机器人 555 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:51,660 是的 556 00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:53,680 为什么特斯拉机器人会像 557 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:54,880 你知道我要做什么 558 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,529 我要造全新的烤箱 559 00:18:58,089 --> 00:18:59,500 为什么啊 560 00:19:00,059 --> 00:19:01,299 这样有什么道理 561 00:19:01,299 --> 00:19:03,420 我需要收集各种零件组装起来 562 00:19:03,420 --> 00:19:06,220 然后确保它不会过热 563 00:19:06,220 --> 00:19:07,900 接着还要测试它 564 00:19:07,900 --> 00:19:08,569 像这样 565 00:19:08,569 --> 00:19:10,410 它只是学会用烤箱 566 00:19:10,410 --> 00:19:11,869 你家里的那个 567 00:19:11,869 --> 00:19:13,289 同理 568 00:19:13,289 --> 00:19:16,369 你觉得它会想建整个销售团队 569 00:19:16,369 --> 00:19:19,859 然后为每个人重复这样做 570 00:19:20,259 --> 00:19:21,960 这太荒谬了 571 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,259 不过我认为这是个很好的例子 572 00:19:24,259 --> 00:19:25,319 詹森说的没错 573 00:19:25,319 --> 00:19:25,929 呃 574 00:19:25,929 --> 00:19:27,108 所以人们可以 575 00:19:27,108 --> 00:19:27,548 理解到 576 00:19:27,548 --> 00:19:27,769 明白了 577 00:19:27,769 --> 00:19:28,430 我懂了 578 00:19:28,430 --> 00:19:28,849 我 579 00:19:28,849 --> 00:19:32,150 我认为未来机器人会用螺丝刀和扳手 580 00:19:32,150 --> 00:19:33,029 你知道的 581 00:19:33,029 --> 00:19:34,190 还有钳子之类的工具 582 00:19:34,190 --> 00:19:38,059 这些工具本质上是数字化的 583 00:19:38,059 --> 00:19:39,900 来自你提到的公司 584 00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:41,779 它们不会取代工具 585 00:19:41,779 --> 00:19:43,299 只会取代我们 586 00:19:43,299 --> 00:19:46,589 使用这些工具的人类 587 00:19:46,710 --> 00:19:48,309 这是个有趣的思维实验 588 00:19:48,309 --> 00:19:49,269 我想帮助我们 589 00:19:49,269 --> 00:19:50,250 它们会帮助我们 590 00:19:50,250 --> 00:19:50,710 好的 591 00:19:50,710 --> 00:19:52,089 我们接受这种帮助 592 00:19:52,089 --> 00:19:53,009 它们会帮助我们 593 00:19:53,009 --> 00:19:53,329 是的 594 00:19:53,329 --> 00:19:54,388 它们会帮助我们 595 00:19:54,388 --> 00:19:56,528 原因在于 596 00:19:56,528 --> 00:20:00,819 事实上对于大多数软件工程师 597 00:20:01,220 --> 00:20:02,740 编程是他们的工作 598 00:20:02,740 --> 00:20:03,880 就像对于ceo 599 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,449 打字是我的工作 600 00:20:05,449 --> 00:20:07,169 但打字的目的 601 00:20:07,169 --> 00:20:10,509 编码的目的就是解决问题和解决我们从未想过的问题 602 00:20:10,509 --> 00:20:11,729 那些我们甚至未曾想到的问题 603 00:20:11,729 --> 00:20:12,108 解决问题 604 00:20:12,108 --> 00:20:13,440 这就是创新 605 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,660 因此工作的目的不会改变 606 00:20:15,660 --> 00:20:18,250 因此我们需要大量软件工程师 607 00:20:18,250 --> 00:20:19,549 但也许他们不需要 608 00:20:19,549 --> 00:20:20,869 他们根本不需要编码 609 00:20:20,869 --> 00:20:21,170 比如 610 00:20:21,170 --> 00:20:22,069 他们以前需要编码 611 00:20:22,069 --> 00:20:23,609 他们会以新方式编码 612 00:20:23,609 --> 00:20:25,710 他们会以一种 613 00:20:26,190 --> 00:20:30,450 他们会向代理描述自己的意图 614 00:20:30,450 --> 00:20:31,970 他们拥有的想法类型 615 00:20:31,970 --> 00:20:34,409 代理将编写实际软件 616 00:20:34,409 --> 00:20:37,969 因此我们将工作在更高层次的抽象层面 617 00:20:37,969 --> 00:20:39,750 我们将大大提高效率 618 00:20:39,750 --> 00:20:40,269 你知道的 619 00:20:40,269 --> 00:20:41,549 希望你知道 620 00:20:41,549 --> 00:20:44,900 创造大量新事物并解决大量新问题 621 00:20:44,900 --> 00:20:45,339 是的 622 00:20:45,339 --> 00:20:46,039 我的意思是 623 00:20:46,039 --> 00:20:47,299 当你处于 624 00:20:47,299 --> 00:20:47,720 嗯 625 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:48,579 这非常重要 626 00:20:48,579 --> 00:20:50,279 每个人都应该理解这个道理 627 00:20:50,279 --> 00:20:53,799 每当遇到某种新技术时 628 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:55,759 总会充满兴奋 629 00:20:55,759 --> 00:20:57,160 周围充满炒作 630 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,920 然后人们开始害怕它 631 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:01,720 这无关紧要 632 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,779 无论它是什么，你都可以追溯到 633 00:21:03,779 --> 00:21:06,440 当农民开始使用机器辅助时 634 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:11,579 当时开始出现恐惧 635 00:21:11,579 --> 00:21:13,160 所有工作都会被取代 636 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,160 我们有了新工具 637 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,230 因此这将消除人类的需求 638 00:21:19,230 --> 00:21:19,849 对吧 639 00:21:19,849 --> 00:21:22,089 你可以回到技术革命时期 640 00:21:23,089 --> 00:21:24,190 你可以说 641 00:21:24,190 --> 00:21:24,369 哦 642 00:21:24,369 --> 00:21:24,809 天啊 643 00:21:24,809 --> 00:21:27,269 人们开始在线订购东西 644 00:21:27,269 --> 00:21:29,059 他们将全部在线订购 645 00:21:29,059 --> 00:21:30,500 这意味着莎莉 646 00:21:30,500 --> 00:21:32,140 她通常为我结账 647 00:21:32,140 --> 00:21:33,638 我不再需要她了 648 00:21:33,638 --> 00:21:33,999 对吧 649 00:21:33,999 --> 00:21:35,038 因此她将失去工作 650 00:21:35,038 --> 00:21:36,558 店里那些人 651 00:21:36,558 --> 00:21:37,959 他们通常负责补货货架 652 00:21:37,959 --> 00:21:38,618 天啊 653 00:21:38,618 --> 00:21:40,019 我以后再也不需要他们了 654 00:21:40,019 --> 00:21:41,369 首先说 655 00:21:41,369 --> 00:21:42,690 现在是22:26 656 00:21:42,690 --> 00:21:45,569 我们仍然有很多仍在补货货架的商店 657 00:21:45,569 --> 00:21:46,809 你仍然可以去沃尔玛 658 00:21:46,809 --> 00:21:48,309 你仍然可以去Target 659 00:21:48,309 --> 00:21:50,150 你仍然可以去超市 660 00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:51,529 五年后甚至十年后 661 00:21:51,529 --> 00:21:53,069 你仍然能够 662 00:21:53,069 --> 00:21:56,109 也许有一天实体店就不存在了 663 00:21:56,109 --> 00:21:56,549 但天啊 664 00:21:56,549 --> 00:21:57,589 这需要很长时间 665 00:21:57,589 --> 00:21:58,239 好的 666 00:21:59,628 --> 00:22:03,469 必须考虑新技术带来的新工作 667 00:22:03,469 --> 00:22:05,588 人们总认为这是零和游戏 668 00:22:05,588 --> 00:22:06,729 没有新工作 669 00:22:06,729 --> 00:22:06,949 不 670 00:22:06,949 --> 00:22:11,329 从这个新平台诞生了大量新工作 671 00:22:11,329 --> 00:22:12,500 这个新事物 672 00:22:12,500 --> 00:22:13,779 所以想想看 673 00:22:13,779 --> 00:22:14,700 就亚马逊而言 674 00:22:14,700 --> 00:22:15,299 你会觉得 675 00:22:15,299 --> 00:22:16,019 哦亚马逊的 676 00:22:16,019 --> 00:22:17,079 他们要消灭所有工作 677 00:22:17,079 --> 00:22:17,299 嗯 678 00:22:17,299 --> 00:22:20,539 这些人是否考虑了仓库所需的人手 679 00:22:20,539 --> 00:22:22,220 去补那些货架 680 00:22:22,220 --> 00:22:24,059 然后正确取货 681 00:22:24,059 --> 00:22:25,489 然后你知道的 682 00:22:25,489 --> 00:22:26,429 完成订单处理 683 00:22:26,429 --> 00:22:29,148 然后配送订单 684 00:22:29,148 --> 00:22:29,848 等等 685 00:22:29,848 --> 00:22:30,548 等等之类的 686 00:22:30,548 --> 00:22:31,189 天啊 687 00:22:31,189 --> 00:22:32,148 看看现在的亚马逊 688 00:22:32,148 --> 00:22:34,690 已成为全球最大雇主之一 689 00:22:35,490 --> 00:22:38,490 在技术革命初期 690 00:22:38,490 --> 00:22:38,849 天啊 691 00:22:38,849 --> 00:22:40,369 这将消灭 692 00:22:40,369 --> 00:22:41,789 所有这些工作 693 00:22:41,789 --> 00:22:43,809 结果反而创造了大量工作 694 00:22:43,809 --> 00:22:46,349 再想想所有间接相关企业 695 00:22:46,349 --> 00:22:48,650 当年可能进不了沃尔玛货架 696 00:22:48,650 --> 00:22:50,130 沃尔玛货架当年 697 00:22:50,130 --> 00:22:52,109 货架空间有限 698 00:22:52,109 --> 00:22:56,210 但现在他们可以开网店在亚马逊销售 699 00:22:56,210 --> 00:23:02,940 比如如果你生产第四畅销的平底锅 700 00:23:02,940 --> 00:23:05,240 你当年可能没去沃尔玛买东西 701 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,259 因为沃尔玛不需要四把不同款的铲子 702 00:23:07,259 --> 00:23:08,619 他们可能只需要两到三把就够了 703 00:23:08,619 --> 00:23:09,799 没错 704 00:23:10,959 --> 00:23:13,818 如果你是亚马逊的卖家 705 00:23:13,818 --> 00:23:18,160 你可能成为第15名最受欢迎的铲子 706 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,750 但依然能做不错的生意对吧 707 00:23:20,750 --> 00:23:24,250 新技术创造的就业岗位数量 708 00:23:24,250 --> 00:23:25,640 大家总是关注这一点 709 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,119 总会有这样的浪潮 710 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:27,480 啊 711 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:28,160 这很糟糕 712 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:29,000 这很可怕 713 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,609 这就是那些事情对吧 714 00:23:30,609 --> 00:23:31,009 但 715 00:23:31,009 --> 00:23:33,730 他们总是忽略由此创造的新岗位数量 716 00:23:33,730 --> 00:23:35,049 我举个很好的例子 717 00:23:35,049 --> 00:23:35,730 比如互联网 718 00:23:35,730 --> 00:23:41,059 就像我开始创业做房地产营销公司 719 00:23:41,059 --> 00:23:43,059 我开始做摄影 720 00:23:43,059 --> 00:23:46,140 开始为房屋拍摄无人机视频和照片 721 00:23:46,140 --> 00:23:48,650 那时这还是超级新科技 722 00:23:48,650 --> 00:23:50,250 大家都觉得太酷了 723 00:23:50,250 --> 00:23:50,769 天啊 724 00:23:50,769 --> 00:23:53,289 你用无人机拍摄这个豪华房产 725 00:23:53,289 --> 00:23:55,569 当年我做这件事简直疯狂 726 00:23:55,569 --> 00:23:59,809 三十年或四十年前不可能做到 727 00:23:59,809 --> 00:24:01,390 当我十年前 728 00:24:01,390 --> 00:24:02,130 多年前开始做这件事 729 00:24:02,130 --> 00:24:02,950 这简直 730 00:24:02,950 --> 00:24:03,609 天啊 731 00:24:03,609 --> 00:24:05,289 这太棒了还有YouTube 732 00:24:05,289 --> 00:24:07,130 真是棒极了 733 00:24:07,130 --> 00:24:09,539 新科技带来的东西实在太多 734 00:24:09,539 --> 00:24:10,000 嗯 735 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:10,579 你知道的 736 00:24:10,579 --> 00:24:11,960 这些新技术会催生很多新事物 737 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,159 创造大量新岗位 738 00:24:13,159 --> 00:24:13,919 但人们 739 00:24:13,919 --> 00:24:16,919 总会有阶段只关注 740 00:24:16,919 --> 00:24:18,640 潜在的负面影响 741 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:19,900 这只会带来坏处 742 00:24:19,900 --> 00:24:21,039 我们都会被淘汰 743 00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:23,609 再次回到我九年级后的研究 744 00:24:23,609 --> 00:24:25,210 你是否在思考这些 745 00:24:25,210 --> 00:24:26,269 观察科技行业时 746 00:24:26,269 --> 00:24:26,549 在思考 747 00:24:26,549 --> 00:24:27,930 这里到底发生了什么 748 00:24:27,930 --> 00:24:30,449 如果这项新技术 749 00:24:30,449 --> 00:24:33,048 如果你能使用Salesforce 750 00:24:34,249 --> 00:24:38,960 它可以穿透你的客户列表并告诉你 751 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,240 你需要联系这个客户 752 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,619 你需要处理这个客户 753 00:24:41,619 --> 00:24:42,519 我来帮你做 754 00:24:42,519 --> 00:24:44,940 我马上要给这个客户打电话联系他们 755 00:24:45,089 --> 00:24:48,940 还有这些潜在客户，你可能能够开发 756 00:24:48,940 --> 00:24:49,759 谁知道呢 757 00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:51,500 每年数十万美元 758 00:24:51,500 --> 00:24:52,740 数百万甚至上亿 759 00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:55,339 取决于你的企业规模，可能是数千万 760 00:24:55,339 --> 00:24:57,970 这是过去无法获得的东西 761 00:24:57,970 --> 00:24:59,589 有了这笔额外资金 762 00:24:59,589 --> 00:25:00,509 嗯 763 00:25:00,509 --> 00:25:02,990 你可以直接从企业中提取去花掉 764 00:25:02,990 --> 00:25:04,230 这意味着更多就业机会 765 00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:04,950 没错 766 00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:10,420 或者你可以雇佣更多员工做更多事情 767 00:25:10,420 --> 00:25:12,559 你可以向软件公司投入更多资金 768 00:25:12,559 --> 00:25:14,480 这意味着他们也有更多钱可花 769 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,390 你知道这背后有很多好处 770 00:25:18,390 --> 00:25:19,309 我不认为 771 00:25:19,309 --> 00:25:21,430 人们没有考虑到这一点，非常重要 772 00:25:21,430 --> 00:25:24,670 我觉得每个人都应该研究一下软件股 773 00:25:24,670 --> 00:25:25,819 几乎可以这么说 774 00:25:25,819 --> 00:25:28,460 特别是Salesforce和ServiceNow 775 00:25:28,460 --> 00:25:29,440 呃 776 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,500 12月7日 777 00:25:30,500 --> 00:25:34,859 我们决定调整投资建议 778 00:25:38,839 --> 00:25:41,980 我们认为他们投入数据中心的资金太多 779 00:25:41,980 --> 00:25:46,880 由于他们在数据中心的巨额支出 780 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,200 呃，我们还 781 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:48,779 呃 782 00:25:48,779 --> 00:25:49,980 超配权重 783 00:25:49,980 --> 00:25:52,640 转向全球化而非本土化 784 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,599 这些策略效果相当不错 785 00:25:54,599 --> 00:25:56,359 我觉得他们还有很长的路要走 786 00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,799 我认为这对牛市持续非常健康 787 00:26:00,799 --> 00:26:04,309 这对仍重仓的人并不轻松 788 00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:06,829 不过仍有疑问 789 00:26:06,829 --> 00:26:11,210 关于这部分市场是否过长 790 00:26:11,210 --> 00:26:12,430 是否已经超买 791 00:26:12,430 --> 00:26:13,130 我的意思是 792 00:26:13,130 --> 00:26:13,890 如果确实如此 793 00:26:13,890 --> 00:26:16,579 然后科技股会出现疲软 794 00:26:16,579 --> 00:26:18,180 可能导致市场问题 795 00:26:18,180 --> 00:26:18,460 是的 796 00:26:18,460 --> 00:26:21,619 他们开始减仓避险 797 00:26:23,500 --> 00:26:27,380 他基本上从十月底左右就开始活跃了 798 00:26:27,380 --> 00:26:30,099 迈克尔·巴里当时把他提起来 799 00:26:30,099 --> 00:26:35,159 这些公司盈利能力的相关问题 800 00:26:35,159 --> 00:26:35,519 呃 801 00:26:35,519 --> 00:26:40,159 海外再平衡自去年年初就开始了 802 00:26:40,159 --> 00:26:41,789 在大局中 803 00:26:41,789 --> 00:26:42,430 呃 804 00:26:42,430 --> 00:26:43,789 在股市历史中 805 00:26:43,789 --> 00:26:47,180 这其实相当新颖 806 00:26:47,180 --> 00:26:48,359 这类发展 807 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:49,720 这说明什么 808 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:50,160 我是说 809 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,630 你见过那么多市场波动 810 00:26:51,630 --> 00:26:54,269 你又研究过那么多历史时期 811 00:26:54,269 --> 00:26:55,789 这又说明什么 812 00:26:55,789 --> 00:27:00,130 当你看到一个市场被迅速推动和左右 813 00:27:00,130 --> 00:27:02,509 由一个晦涩的资源记录 814 00:27:02,509 --> 00:27:06,170 或者对可能发生的事情的预测 815 00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:07,529 这说明什么 816 00:27:07,529 --> 00:27:07,730 制造 817 00:27:07,730 --> 00:27:09,660 让你对市场产生某种感受 818 00:27:09,660 --> 00:27:10,160 你正在观察 819 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:10,500 是的 820 00:27:10,500 --> 00:27:12,799 我是说事后看得很清楚 821 00:27:12,799 --> 00:27:16,819 表明狂热与人工智能 822 00:27:16,819 --> 00:27:17,460 呃 823 00:27:17,460 --> 00:27:18,819 不可持续 824 00:27:18,819 --> 00:27:19,660 然后 825 00:27:19,660 --> 00:27:21,799 转变为人工智能疲劳 826 00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:22,720 而现在 827 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,519 呃 828 00:27:23,519 --> 00:27:28,319 我担心几乎成了人工智能错乱综合征 829 00:27:28,319 --> 00:27:33,819 我是说人们已经彻底疯了，认为这会导致大量失业 830 00:27:33,819 --> 00:27:36,740 各种可怕的预言 831 00:27:36,740 --> 00:27:41,420 我认为这些都是极端的，而且恐惧卖得很好 832 00:27:41,420 --> 00:27:43,400 你知道你可以写这种粉丝小说 833 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:44,200 哦你知道的 834 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:45,579 人工智能消灭所有这些工作 835 00:27:45,579 --> 00:27:48,990 从而消灭这一切然后消失 836 00:27:48,990 --> 00:27:51,410 我也可以为你写一篇类似的粉丝小说 837 00:27:51,410 --> 00:27:54,900 你知道这个国家向那个国家发射核弹 838 00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:56,359 他们反击一击 839 00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:56,839 轰 840 00:27:56,839 --> 00:27:57,890 轰轰 841 00:27:58,210 --> 00:27:59,130 我们都死了 842 00:27:59,130 --> 00:27:59,609 你知道的 843 00:27:59,609 --> 00:28:00,049 呃 844 00:28:00,049 --> 00:28:00,970 小行星来袭 845 00:28:00,970 --> 00:28:01,490 哦 846 00:28:01,490 --> 00:28:03,740 他们都死了像我们 847 00:28:03,740 --> 00:28:04,700 我们可以整天做这件事 848 00:28:04,700 --> 00:28:05,240 很简单 849 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:05,619 轻轻松松 850 00:28:05,619 --> 00:28:05,900 柠檬 851 00:28:05,900 --> 00:28:07,180 挤得像你知道的那样 852 00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:10,250 如果人们没有充分了解 853 00:28:10,250 --> 00:28:13,170 我想他们会非常非常害怕的 854 00:28:13,170 --> 00:28:17,039 我的意思是想象一个不了解小行星的人 855 00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:18,420 或者对历史知之甚少 856 00:28:18,420 --> 00:28:19,160 然后我就像 857 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:19,440 哦 858 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:20,980 我觉得我看到一颗大陨石来了 859 00:28:20,980 --> 00:28:21,319 我就像 860 00:28:21,319 --> 00:28:24,079 你听说过叫小行星撞击地球的事吗 861 00:28:24,079 --> 00:28:24,730 我们完成了 862 00:28:24,730 --> 00:28:26,349 我觉得我看到外面有一颗 863 00:28:26,349 --> 00:28:27,049 哦哦 864 00:28:28,049 --> 00:28:29,289 你知道像 865 00:28:29,289 --> 00:28:30,009 天啊 866 00:28:30,009 --> 00:28:31,410 这就是股市的本质 867 00:28:31,410 --> 00:28:31,809 就像 868 00:28:31,809 --> 00:28:35,730 很多人对股市了解不多 869 00:28:35,730 --> 00:28:37,679 所以你给他们制造恐惧 870 00:28:37,679 --> 00:28:39,398 哦然后你再增加一些恐惧 871 00:28:39,398 --> 00:28:40,338 再增加更多恐惧 872 00:28:40,338 --> 00:28:42,869 最终他们会非常害怕 873 00:28:43,230 --> 00:28:49,180 最终之后发生的是他们不再害怕 874 00:28:49,180 --> 00:28:50,000 嗯 875 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,079 那时他们已经 876 00:28:51,079 --> 00:28:52,059 承受了太多恐惧 877 00:28:52,059 --> 00:28:53,339 被反复灌输恐惧 878 00:28:53,339 --> 00:28:55,039 最终恐惧开始消退 879 00:28:55,039 --> 00:28:57,200 很好的例子是2022年 880 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,619 到2022年底 881 00:28:58,619 --> 00:29:01,039 你再也无法吓唬市场了 882 00:29:01,039 --> 00:29:01,799 因为已经经历了太多 883 00:29:01,799 --> 00:29:03,519 美联储 884 00:29:03,519 --> 00:29:03,980 加息 885 00:29:03,980 --> 00:29:04,559 通胀失控 886 00:29:04,559 --> 00:29:05,839 俄罗斯 887 00:29:05,839 --> 00:29:06,200 乌克兰 888 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:06,720 等等 889 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:07,380 所以经历这么多后 890 00:29:07,380 --> 00:29:10,039 它变得 891 00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:10,700 你再也无法真正压低市场 892 00:29:10,700 --> 00:29:14,528 因为已经经历了太多 893 00:29:14,528 --> 00:29:17,328 市场开始持续上涨 894 00:29:17,328 --> 00:29:19,348 我认为AI是强大工具 895 00:29:19,348 --> 00:29:23,440 我们都将用工具提升效率 896 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,059 我认为这是积极的 897 00:29:26,059 --> 00:29:31,390 但市场现在正在经历各种心理博弈 898 00:29:31,390 --> 00:29:34,659 毕竟软件行业显然是核心领域 899 00:29:34,659 --> 00:29:35,519 最大的 900 00:29:35,519 --> 00:29:37,569 该领域的下滑 901 00:29:37,569 --> 00:29:40,230 X 我认为类似三十年前的金融危机 902 00:29:40,230 --> 00:29:40,630 是的 903 00:29:40,630 --> 00:29:41,809 那些年确实如此 904 00:29:41,809 --> 00:29:42,329 是的 905 00:29:42,329 --> 00:29:43,410 这是否过度反应了 906 00:29:43,410 --> 00:29:44,019 是的 907 00:29:44,019 --> 00:29:46,319 我认为在某种程度上确实过度了 908 00:29:46,319 --> 00:29:47,140 但话说回来 909 00:29:47,140 --> 00:29:49,019 在这种情况下必须精选个股 910 00:29:49,019 --> 00:29:52,549 我不确定是否该买入软件股ETF 911 00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:54,029 因为有些公司可能撑不过去 912 00:29:54,029 --> 00:29:55,109 而另一些则会成功 913 00:29:55,109 --> 00:29:57,829 看这些年轻人在这里翻炒煎饼 914 00:29:57,829 --> 00:29:59,869 非常非常非常棒 915 00:30:00,778 --> 00:30:02,298 考虑到我们这里有很多 916 00:30:02,298 --> 00:30:04,519 我们不清楚最终结果如何 917 00:30:04,519 --> 00:30:08,789 不如顺势而为进入能源材料 918 00:30:08,789 --> 00:30:10,670 消费必需品 919 00:30:11,710 --> 00:30:12,630 这些板块表现一直不错 920 00:30:12,630 --> 00:30:15,220 当然还有海外市场 921 00:30:15,220 --> 00:30:20,119 你之前提到韩国及其他市场的动态 922 00:30:20,119 --> 00:30:23,990 但能源只是微小资本的极小部分 923 00:30:23,990 --> 00:30:25,609 很难超配 924 00:30:25,609 --> 00:30:28,750 必需品板块表现确实强劲 925 00:30:28,750 --> 00:30:29,130 是的 926 00:30:29,130 --> 00:30:30,190 也许它们已经过贵了 927 00:30:30,190 --> 00:30:30,750 是的 928 00:30:30,750 --> 00:30:31,190 我意思是 929 00:30:31,190 --> 00:30:33,750 这些市场领域不会让你感到 930 00:30:33,750 --> 00:30:34,000 哦 931 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:34,279 好的 932 00:30:34,279 --> 00:30:35,200 我将重点布局这里 933 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,880 我认为标普指数这里潜力巨大 934 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,279 金融业近期确实被严重打压 935 00:30:42,279 --> 00:30:44,579 因为AI恐惧情绪 936 00:30:44,579 --> 00:30:45,059 嗯 937 00:30:45,059 --> 00:30:46,400 但正如Jamie Diamond 938 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,140 摩根大通CEO 939 00:30:49,140 --> 00:30:50,480 所解释 940 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:51,210 嗯 941 00:30:51,210 --> 00:30:54,630 他预计将在一年内投入20亿美元 942 00:30:54,630 --> 00:30:55,289 用于 943 00:30:55,289 --> 00:31:00,289 特定人工智能技术领域，最终 944 00:31:00,289 --> 00:31:02,269 这将成为重大生产力提升 945 00:31:02,269 --> 00:31:04,470 我认为许多金融业都会如此 946 00:31:04,470 --> 00:31:06,130 区域性金融机构 947 00:31:06,130 --> 00:31:07,539 我认为你会看到 948 00:31:07,539 --> 00:31:08,740 受益于人工智能 949 00:31:08,740 --> 00:31:11,000 但也能从h m和a中获益 950 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,000 而所有这些疯狂的支出最终意味着什么 951 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,589 大量就业机会 952 00:31:17,589 --> 00:31:18,410 听着 953 00:31:18,410 --> 00:31:20,109 你想把所有钱投入科技 954 00:31:20,109 --> 00:31:22,029 你想把所有钱投入基建 955 00:31:22,029 --> 00:31:23,009 还有所有这些建筑 956 00:31:23,009 --> 00:31:24,509 以及正在建造的所有数据中心 957 00:31:24,509 --> 00:31:27,230 所有这些都不是免费的 958 00:31:27,230 --> 00:31:30,029 它不会凭空发生 959 00:31:30,029 --> 00:31:30,910 上次我检查时 960 00:31:30,910 --> 00:31:32,769 我们并没有到处都是特斯拉机器人 961 00:31:32,769 --> 00:31:33,430 建造所有这些设施 962 00:31:33,430 --> 00:31:35,230 必须由人类来完成 963 00:31:35,230 --> 00:31:36,450 所有这些运输 964 00:31:36,450 --> 00:31:37,589 所有这些运输的 965 00:31:37,589 --> 00:31:42,829 各种芯片、机架等等的大规模 966 00:31:42,829 --> 00:31:44,150 大量就业岗位 967 00:31:44,150 --> 00:31:46,089 对经济最有利的事情之一 968 00:31:46,089 --> 00:31:48,959 未来几年最大的公司 969 00:31:48,959 --> 00:31:50,199 挥金如土 970 00:31:50,199 --> 00:31:53,038 如果你只是囤积资金并进行股票回购 971 00:31:53,038 --> 00:31:54,558 对经济毫无帮助 972 00:31:54,558 --> 00:31:56,079 这只是事实 973 00:31:56,079 --> 00:31:57,079 没有主观意见 974 00:31:57,079 --> 00:31:58,619 这就像事实一样 975 00:31:58,619 --> 00:31:59,839 这对经济有什么好处 976 00:31:59,839 --> 00:32:00,759 和这没什么不同 977 00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:03,539 假设我每年靠股票赚五百万 978 00:32:03,539 --> 00:32:07,869 好吧，我从不外出消费 979 00:32:07,869 --> 00:32:08,990 我从不去餐厅 980 00:32:08,990 --> 00:32:09,900 在这里的拉斯维加斯 981 00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:11,220 我从不乘坐任何航班 982 00:32:11,220 --> 00:32:13,119 我从不旅行 983 00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:14,380 我只是囤积资金 984 00:32:14,380 --> 00:32:15,559 我从不买新车 985 00:32:15,559 --> 00:32:16,519 我从不买新房 986 00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:18,960 我只是待在家里囤钱 987 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:19,920 我可以这么做 988 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,500 但这对经济有好处吗 989 00:32:21,500 --> 00:32:23,039 当然没有 990 00:32:23,039 --> 00:32:24,279 如果我去餐厅 991 00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:25,319 我会这样做 992 00:32:25,319 --> 00:32:26,759 我要去旅行 993 00:32:26,759 --> 00:32:29,779 大家都能从我这里赚钱对吧 994 00:32:29,779 --> 00:32:33,789 公司也是如此 995 00:32:33,789 --> 00:32:35,430 当公司大额支出时 996 00:32:35,430 --> 00:32:36,789 对经济是巨大利好 997 00:32:36,789 --> 00:32:38,329 实际上在未来几年 998 00:32:38,329 --> 00:32:40,190 他们不花钱 999 00:32:40,470 --> 00:32:41,910 这就是你陷入麻烦的地方 1000 00:32:41,910 --> 00:32:43,589 这就是市场放缓的时候 1001 00:32:43,589 --> 00:32:44,930 你需要人们消费 1002 00:32:44,930 --> 00:32:47,150 你需要企业消费 1003 00:32:47,150 --> 00:32:50,289 这对经济来说是非常非常好的事 1004 00:32:50,289 --> 00:32:51,809 我们谈论软件 1005 00:32:51,809 --> 00:32:55,450 今天似乎正在尝试扭转局面 1006 00:32:55,450 --> 00:32:56,549 有些你知道的 1007 00:32:56,549 --> 00:32:59,009 观察价格走势和这些股票名称，可能会说 1008 00:32:59,009 --> 00:33:00,970 也许我们正在筑底 1009 00:33:00,970 --> 00:33:04,278 如果你看Salesforce股价下跌 1010 00:33:04,278 --> 00:33:05,378 让我们看看Salesforce 1011 00:33:05,378 --> 00:33:07,809 因为上次查看时该股已转为上涨 1012 00:33:07,809 --> 00:33:09,910 而它仍是领涨标的 1013 00:33:09,910 --> 00:33:10,490 表现不佳 1014 00:33:10,490 --> 00:33:11,609 从营收角度看 1015 00:33:11,609 --> 00:33:13,410 他们宣布了50亿美元回购计划 1016 00:33:13,410 --> 00:33:13,869 不过 1017 00:33:13,869 --> 00:33:14,890 利好效应减弱 1018 00:33:14,890 --> 00:33:15,349 你知道的 1019 00:33:15,349 --> 00:33:16,910 站出来表示现在情况 1020 00:33:16,910 --> 00:33:18,410 这有点荒谬了 1021 00:33:18,410 --> 00:33:21,750 他在与吉姆·克莱默的节目中情绪激动 1022 00:33:21,750 --> 00:33:22,930 昨晚 1023 00:33:22,930 --> 00:33:26,930 谈论市场为何在他看来不公平地惩罚这些股票 1024 00:33:26,930 --> 00:33:28,109 听着 1025 00:33:28,990 --> 00:33:32,650 我们预计营收462亿美元 1026 00:33:32,650 --> 00:33:34,230 吉姆，我第一次上你的节目时 1027 00:33:34,230 --> 00:33:35,980 当时营收还是一亿美元 1028 00:33:35,980 --> 00:33:38,359 现在我们谈到462亿美元 1029 00:33:38,359 --> 00:33:41,710 自2008年以来股价已涨至46倍 1030 00:33:41,710 --> 00:33:43,089 当我刚到2009年时 1031 00:33:43,089 --> 00:33:44,829 我记得第一次是在八号 1032 00:33:44,829 --> 00:33:46,609 真是令人惊叹，吉姆 1033 00:33:46,609 --> 00:33:47,230 是的 1034 00:33:47,230 --> 00:33:48,470 吉姆，没错 1035 00:33:48,470 --> 00:33:50,849 当然这是我们首个SaaS末日 1036 00:33:50,849 --> 00:33:51,349 你知道的 1037 00:33:51,349 --> 00:33:54,009 还记得你说我必须来节目 1038 00:33:54,009 --> 00:33:55,470 因为当时是SaaS末日 1039 00:33:55,470 --> 00:33:58,920 然后我们经历了2020年的SaaS末日 1040 00:33:58,920 --> 00:33:59,359 当你听到 1041 00:33:59,359 --> 00:33:59,559 哦 1042 00:33:59,559 --> 00:34:01,679 如何在疫情中生存 1043 00:34:01,679 --> 00:34:02,659 而如今我们又到了 1044 00:34:02,659 --> 00:34:02,919 吉姆 1045 00:34:02,919 --> 00:34:04,699 我们正经历新一轮SaaS末日 1046 00:34:04,699 --> 00:34:07,750 这是一系列SaaS末日 1047 00:34:08,230 --> 00:34:08,750 好的 1048 00:34:08,750 --> 00:34:10,829 马克·本尼和克雷默走了 1049 00:34:10,829 --> 00:34:13,670 也许这次和之前不同 1050 00:34:13,670 --> 00:34:14,389 不确定 1051 00:34:14,389 --> 00:34:14,630 丹 1052 00:34:14,630 --> 00:34:15,050 我之前说过 1053 00:34:15,050 --> 00:34:15,650 强劲的季度表现 1054 00:34:15,650 --> 00:34:16,570 他降低了目标价 1055 00:34:16,570 --> 00:34:18,369 降至325美元 1056 00:34:18,369 --> 00:34:22,150 从375美元下调以反映较低倍数 1057 00:34:22,150 --> 00:34:24,949 今天至少有五次目标价下调 1058 00:34:24,949 --> 00:34:27,568 我看到的最低价是194美元 1059 00:34:27,568 --> 00:34:30,429 伯恩斯坦下调至跑输大盘 1060 00:34:30,429 --> 00:34:31,329 罗布，你 1061 00:34:31,329 --> 00:34:33,559 你持有这些股票和这只股票 1062 00:34:33,559 --> 00:34:34,800 我持有其他股票 1063 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,349 我认为未来某个时候可能继续上涨 1064 00:34:38,349 --> 00:34:40,590 但我们还没准备好确认底部 1065 00:34:40,590 --> 00:34:41,329 呃 1066 00:34:41,329 --> 00:34:46,480 今日反应显示这些股票已被严重超卖 1067 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:51,340 半导体与软件板块的持仓已过度拉长 1068 00:34:51,340 --> 00:34:57,360 这些公司在此领域几乎都是有罪推定 1069 00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:02,090 终端增长率存在合理质疑 1070 00:35:02,090 --> 00:35:03,469 这一点毋庸置疑 1071 00:35:03,469 --> 00:35:03,829 但 1072 00:35:03,829 --> 00:35:05,409 但我觉得我们已处于关键位置 1073 00:35:05,409 --> 00:35:08,670 股市中存在几种贪婪策略 1074 00:35:08,670 --> 00:35:12,818 一种是借入大量债务加杠杆 1075 00:35:12,818 --> 00:35:14,739 通过融资等方式投入更多资金 1076 00:35:14,739 --> 00:35:16,079 这是贪婪的一种方式 1077 00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:17,278 这不是明智之举 1078 00:35:17,278 --> 00:35:19,769 第二种贪婪方式是 1079 00:35:19,769 --> 00:35:24,230 假设某股票严重高估 1080 00:35:24,230 --> 00:35:26,929 我仍不打算卖出这只股票 1081 00:35:26,929 --> 00:35:27,630 因为 1082 00:35:27,630 --> 00:35:28,329 你知道的 1083 00:35:28,329 --> 00:35:30,570 尽管它极度高估 1084 00:35:30,570 --> 00:35:31,528 嗯 1085 00:35:31,528 --> 00:35:32,608 你知道的 1086 00:35:32,608 --> 00:35:34,708 我认为可能再涨10% 1087 00:35:34,708 --> 00:35:36,168 因为它有强劲势头 1088 00:35:36,168 --> 00:35:36,648 这就是一种方式 1089 00:35:36,648 --> 00:35:37,849 另一种贪婪方式是 1090 00:35:37,849 --> 00:35:38,929 另一种贪婪方式是 1091 00:35:38,929 --> 00:35:41,280 当你看到优质公司 1092 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:42,760 真正伟大的公司 1093 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,360 巨额营收 1094 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:45,739 巨额利润持续增长 1095 00:35:45,739 --> 00:35:47,440 业绩表现卓越 1096 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,449 优秀管理团队以极低估值交易 1097 00:35:51,449 --> 00:35:53,710 而你关心他们的长期未来 1098 00:35:53,710 --> 00:35:56,170 而且它们处于极具吸引力的价格 1099 00:35:56,170 --> 00:35:58,110 你说我不会去买 1100 00:35:58,110 --> 00:36:01,818 因为它们可能会下跌一些 1101 00:36:01,818 --> 00:36:05,739 这是一种贪婪的表现，也是重大错误 1102 00:36:06,829 --> 00:36:09,449 这就是你会错失机会的原因 1103 00:36:09,449 --> 00:36:13,809 比如Meta股票在2022年大幅下跌 1104 00:36:13,809 --> 00:36:15,170 当时股价回落到2022年 1105 00:36:15,170 --> 00:36:16,409 跌至125美元 1106 00:36:16,409 --> 00:36:16,980 对吧 1107 00:36:16,980 --> 00:36:17,420 嗯 1108 00:36:17,420 --> 00:36:18,699 你可以玩这个游戏 1109 00:36:18,699 --> 00:36:20,170 我暂时不买 1110 00:36:20,170 --> 00:36:22,730 因为它可能还会再跌 1111 00:36:22,730 --> 00:36:24,650 所以你等待着，它继续下跌 1112 00:36:24,650 --> 00:36:25,650 持续下跌 1113 00:36:25,650 --> 00:36:28,300 最终一路跌到88美元左右 1114 00:36:28,300 --> 00:36:28,420 是的 1115 00:36:28,420 --> 00:36:29,659 我觉得可能还会再跌一点 1116 00:36:29,659 --> 00:36:32,960 当我以低于100美元大量买入Meta时 1117 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:34,559 在100美元附近有很多人 1118 00:36:34,559 --> 00:36:34,719 哦 1119 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:35,420 要跌到50了 1120 00:36:35,420 --> 00:36:36,400 要跌到35了 1121 00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:37,199 要跌到20了 1122 00:36:37,199 --> 00:36:37,800 你知道的 1123 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,059 不断报出疯狂的低价 1124 00:36:39,059 --> 00:36:39,528 没错 1125 00:36:39,528 --> 00:36:40,969 所以你可以玩这个游戏 1126 00:36:40,969 --> 00:36:42,309 可能还会更低 1127 00:36:42,309 --> 00:36:43,809 所以我暂时不买 1128 00:36:43,809 --> 00:36:45,269 这就是输家的游戏 1129 00:36:45,269 --> 00:36:45,869 比如 1130 00:36:45,869 --> 00:36:47,650 必须一路买到底 1131 00:36:47,650 --> 00:36:48,869 如果是一家好公司 1132 00:36:48,869 --> 00:36:53,079 并且你相信这家公司未来5、10、7、3年 1133 00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:57,010 必须一路买到底 1134 00:36:57,010 --> 00:36:58,769 股价跌得越深 1135 00:36:58,769 --> 00:37:00,909 你的买入越要加码 1136 00:37:00,909 --> 00:37:03,369 不要贪婪试图精准抄底 1137 00:37:03,369 --> 00:37:04,550 完美价格 1138 00:37:04,550 --> 00:37:05,570 无法做到 1139 00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:06,110 好吧 1140 00:37:06,110 --> 00:37:08,230 我确实持有在88美元买入的Meta股票 1141 00:37:08,230 --> 00:37:09,010 94美元 1142 00:37:09,010 --> 00:37:11,449 并非因为我有多聪明 1143 00:37:11,449 --> 00:37:13,530 并且准确预判了底部 1144 00:37:13,530 --> 00:37:14,110 不是 1145 00:37:14,110 --> 00:37:15,289 因为我还持有其他股份 1146 00:37:15,289 --> 00:37:16,900 我在93美元时买入 1147 00:37:16,900 --> 00:37:18,719 我也买了些在一百多元价位的股票 1148 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:22,260 低价位百元左右、中价位百元左右、高于百元价位 1149 00:37:22,260 --> 00:37:25,010 可能持有两百元左右价位的股票 1150 00:37:25,409 --> 00:37:26,050 这没问题 1151 00:37:27,170 --> 00:37:27,409 比如 1152 00:37:27,409 --> 00:37:28,730 你知道你抓不到最低点 1153 00:37:28,730 --> 00:37:30,030 这就是底线了 1154 00:37:30,030 --> 00:37:32,320 如果你持有正在交易的股票 1155 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,280 极其便宜 1156 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,409 你必须简单地买入这些股票 1157 00:37:37,409 --> 00:37:38,070 服务 1158 00:37:38,070 --> 00:37:44,889 这些企业最终可能是这些变化的受益者 1159 00:37:44,889 --> 00:37:45,769 也许并非如此 1160 00:37:45,769 --> 00:37:49,699 他们想让你相信这一点，而我们确实如此 1161 00:37:49,699 --> 00:37:53,329 我们之前见过这些黑暗时期 1162 00:37:53,329 --> 00:37:59,260 它们最终成为许多企业运营方式的重要组成部分 1163 00:37:59,260 --> 00:38:06,010 他们可以开发有用的AI代理来辅助技术和服务 1164 00:38:06,010 --> 00:38:07,309 我觉得有一份备忘录 1165 00:38:07,309 --> 00:38:09,889 本周或周末有一份备忘录发出 1166 00:38:09,889 --> 00:38:11,489 在备忘录中 1167 00:38:11,489 --> 00:38:12,130 嗯 1168 00:38:12,130 --> 00:38:12,909 这就像 1169 00:38:12,909 --> 00:38:13,289 呃 1170 00:38:13,289 --> 00:38:13,969 隐喻性的 1171 00:38:13,969 --> 00:38:14,429 并非实际 1172 00:38:14,429 --> 00:38:15,769 没有人写成文字 1173 00:38:15,769 --> 00:38:18,559 但我觉得背后有过私下讨论 1174 00:38:18,559 --> 00:38:19,280 嗯 1175 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:20,840 够了迪亚罗 1176 00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,130 不要再播新节目了 1177 00:38:22,130 --> 00:38:23,449 微软那边的人 1178 00:38:23,449 --> 00:38:24,869 没人想再听你的发言了 1179 00:38:24,869 --> 00:38:25,369 要么 1180 00:38:25,369 --> 00:38:26,090 嗯 1181 00:38:26,090 --> 00:38:26,550 这 1182 00:38:26,550 --> 00:38:28,030 够了这种言论 1183 00:38:28,030 --> 00:38:32,719 现在我们需要来自科技AI层的支持性言论 1184 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,710 否则会有非常愤怒的客户 1185 00:38:35,710 --> 00:38:37,570 所有这些都在软件行业 1186 00:38:37,570 --> 00:38:39,079 但你怎么做到 1187 00:38:39,079 --> 00:38:39,460 你并不 1188 00:38:39,460 --> 00:38:39,739 甚至 1189 00:38:39,739 --> 00:38:40,440 你知道的 1190 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,219 行动胜于言辞 1191 00:38:41,219 --> 00:38:42,099 言行一致 1192 00:38:42,099 --> 00:38:42,980 他们无需多言 1193 00:38:42,980 --> 00:38:48,670 持续推出新产品和创新，比如Perplexity 1194 00:38:48,670 --> 00:38:49,710 他们在过去 1195 00:38:49,710 --> 00:38:50,710 让我完成这个思路 1196 00:38:50,710 --> 00:38:52,559 我想你会同意我接下来要说的 1197 00:38:52,559 --> 00:38:54,619 自从这次以来我们看到的情况是 1198 00:38:54,619 --> 00:38:56,380 这个假设的呃 1199 00:38:56,380 --> 00:38:57,940 幕后进行的对话 1200 00:38:57,940 --> 00:38:59,619 在我的行业中我们看到 1201 00:38:59,619 --> 00:39:05,590 LPL宣布与凯文·诺兰合作推出重大举措，他负责财富管理 1202 00:39:05,590 --> 00:39:07,710 垂直领域anthropic 1203 00:39:07,710 --> 00:39:09,800 这不是关于 1204 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,019 我们要替换多少名理财顾问 1205 00:39:12,019 --> 00:39:12,820 听着 1206 00:39:12,820 --> 00:39:15,519 LPL规模几乎相当于摩根士丹利 1207 00:39:15,519 --> 00:39:17,219 从顾问人数来看 1208 00:39:17,219 --> 00:39:18,840 我们正在开展合作项目 1209 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,940 Anthropic将为人类 1210 00:39:23,159 --> 00:39:25,460 硅谷现在怎么称呼它们 1211 00:39:25,460 --> 00:39:26,519 见面吧电脑 1212 00:39:26,519 --> 00:39:29,340 这些真正服务客户的前线机器 1213 00:39:29,340 --> 00:39:32,059 这不是Anthropic的颠覆性公告 1214 00:39:32,059 --> 00:39:33,300 而是合作性质的 1215 00:39:35,590 --> 00:39:37,429 如果你厨房里有机器人 1216 00:39:37,429 --> 00:39:39,389 你是想发明新菜系艺术 1217 00:39:39,389 --> 00:39:42,260 还是让机器人学会使用这种菜系艺术 1218 00:39:42,260 --> 00:39:45,159 Cuisart是Salesforce的绝佳替代 1219 00:39:45,159 --> 00:39:46,059 对于ServiceNow 1220 00:39:46,059 --> 00:39:46,739 对于Workday 1221 00:39:46,739 --> 00:39:47,840 对于所有这些工具 1222 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:52,719 更可能的是代理学会使用SaaS产品 1223 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:56,340 而非如何快速摧毁它们并制造新武器 1224 00:39:56,340 --> 00:39:58,179 这大概就是原因 1225 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,139 在Squawk Box节目中 1226 00:40:04,139 --> 00:40:05,860 他发表了以下观点 1227 00:40:07,590 --> 00:40:09,130 我认为市场判断有误 1228 00:40:09,130 --> 00:40:11,429 我认为很可能 1229 00:40:11,429 --> 00:40:17,610 我们讨论的这些公司将推出运行在自身平台上的代理 1230 00:40:17,610 --> 00:40:18,809 这些代理 1231 00:40:18,809 --> 00:40:22,570 当然必须精通自身领域 1232 00:40:22,570 --> 00:40:25,489 没有人比ServiceNow更懂客户服务 1233 00:40:25,489 --> 00:40:28,010 他们将开发真正精细 1234 00:40:28,010 --> 00:40:31,050 调校并优化的工作代理 1235 00:40:31,050 --> 00:40:31,590 如果你想知道 1236 00:40:31,590 --> 00:40:33,070 为何他说ServiceNow 1237 00:40:33,070 --> 00:40:34,849 具体指他 1238 00:40:34,849 --> 00:40:35,730 以及ServiceNow 1239 00:40:35,730 --> 00:40:36,570 首席执行官 1240 00:40:36,570 --> 00:40:37,190 呃 1241 00:40:37,190 --> 00:40:37,809 麦克德莫特 1242 00:40:37,809 --> 00:40:37,969 比尔 1243 00:40:37,969 --> 00:40:38,610 麦克德莫特 1244 00:40:38,610 --> 00:40:38,969 呃 1245 00:40:38,969 --> 00:40:40,289 这些人关系非常非常亲密 1246 00:40:40,289 --> 00:40:42,849 他们多年来一起做了很多采访 1247 00:40:42,849 --> 00:40:43,864 呃 1248 00:40:44,250 --> 00:40:45,389 他们就像最好的朋友 1249 00:40:45,389 --> 00:40:45,809 你知道的 1250 00:40:45,809 --> 00:40:46,389 我不知道 1251 00:40:46,389 --> 00:40:47,170 其实是最铁的朋友 1252 00:40:47,170 --> 00:40:47,909 但他们更像是 1253 00:40:47,909 --> 00:40:48,449 你知道的 1254 00:40:48,449 --> 00:40:50,849 那里肯定有很亲密的关系 1255 00:40:50,849 --> 00:40:51,449 我们暂且称之为 1256 00:40:51,449 --> 00:40:53,039 那就是他们拥有的 1257 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:53,800 好的 1258 00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,380 现在杰森在辩护 1259 00:40:55,380 --> 00:40:56,360 在某些方面 1260 00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,019 软件行业 1261 00:40:58,019 --> 00:40:59,030 呃 1262 00:40:59,030 --> 00:41:03,380 Snowflake公司公布的营收指引也很不错 1263 00:41:03,380 --> 00:41:05,599 股价却没有良好反应 1264 00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:07,039 要么是斯蒂夫 1265 00:41:07,039 --> 00:41:08,400 这里到底怎么回事 1266 00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,719 至少有七次目标下调 1267 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,179 首选股B类 1268 00:41:12,179 --> 00:41:12,360 哇 1269 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:12,440 哇 1270 00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:12,599 哇 1271 00:41:12,599 --> 00:41:12,880 哇 1272 00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:13,400 别急着下结论 1273 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:15,340 Snowflake 1274 00:41:15,340 --> 00:41:16,900 还是雪片 1275 00:41:16,900 --> 00:41:17,880 依然混乱 1276 00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,190 混乱 1277 00:41:19,190 --> 00:41:20,889 我不是在说足球 1278 00:41:20,889 --> 00:41:21,969 女士们先生们 1279 00:41:21,969 --> 00:41:23,349 看看这个 1280 00:41:23,349 --> 00:41:24,429 这里在哪里 1281 00:41:24,429 --> 00:41:26,559 看看雪景 1282 00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:27,760 D减 1283 00:41:29,079 --> 00:41:30,460 营收看起来很棒 1284 00:41:30,460 --> 00:41:31,559 毛利率也很出色 1285 00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:32,599 之后 1286 00:41:32,599 --> 00:41:37,119 除了吉娜之外唯一的好消息就是 1287 00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:37,858 一团糟 1288 00:41:37,858 --> 00:41:39,119 看看运营亏损 1289 00:41:39,119 --> 00:41:40,358 三百一十八万美元 1290 00:41:40,358 --> 00:41:40,918 你说啊 1291 00:41:40,918 --> 00:41:42,739 比去年同期好多了 1292 00:41:42,739 --> 00:41:43,498 三百八十六 1293 00:41:43,498 --> 00:41:44,599 这确实没错 1294 00:41:44,599 --> 00:41:47,269 但依然很糟糕 1295 00:41:47,269 --> 00:41:48,650 税前亏损 1296 00:41:48,650 --> 00:41:49,989 三百零一万美元 1297 00:41:49,989 --> 00:41:52,349 相比去年同期同一季度的三百三十万美元 1298 00:41:52,349 --> 00:41:53,710 唉 1299 00:41:53,869 --> 00:41:55,369 这依然很糟糕 1300 00:41:55,369 --> 00:41:57,030 所以就像他们 1301 00:41:57,030 --> 00:41:58,829 他们拥有 1302 00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:00,670 至少 1303 00:42:00,670 --> 00:42:01,429 呃 1304 00:42:01,429 --> 00:42:03,949 可能还需要两到三年才能开始 1305 00:42:03,949 --> 00:42:05,409 或许能实现盈利 1306 00:42:05,409 --> 00:42:05,710 即使 1307 00:42:05,710 --> 00:42:07,030 希望如此 1308 00:42:07,030 --> 00:42:09,010 这仍然是个严峻的局面 1309 00:42:09,010 --> 00:42:13,050 最乐观的情况可能还要一年 1310 00:42:13,050 --> 00:42:14,210 最佳情况 1311 00:42:14,210 --> 00:42:15,530 他们能实现收支平衡 1312 00:42:15,530 --> 00:42:18,239 但我不确定这会不会发生 1313 00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,860 可能要等到两三年后 1314 00:42:20,860 --> 00:42:22,219 或许能实现收支平衡 1315 00:42:22,219 --> 00:42:24,840 然后可能在二十年代后期 1316 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,719 之后才能真正聚焦盈利能力 1317 00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:28,980 但天啊 1318 00:42:28,980 --> 00:42:30,500 等待这么久 1319 00:42:30,500 --> 00:42:32,019 尤其是如果考虑 1320 00:42:32,019 --> 00:42:32,820 可能商业模式 1321 00:42:32,820 --> 00:42:33,860 可能会被颠覆 1322 00:42:33,860 --> 00:42:35,869 或者类似情况 1323 00:42:35,869 --> 00:42:36,230 你知道的 1324 00:42:36,230 --> 00:42:40,269 我不喜欢将Snowflake与服务类公司相提并论 1325 00:42:40,269 --> 00:42:40,710 现在 1326 00:42:40,710 --> 00:42:42,329 作为Salesforce 1327 00:42:42,329 --> 00:42:44,099 他们利润惊人 1328 00:42:44,099 --> 00:42:45,739 顶级软件公司 1329 00:42:45,739 --> 00:42:49,380 贝恩资本给出的五比一九五估值 1330 00:42:49,380 --> 00:42:50,639 市场表现评级 1331 00:42:50,639 --> 00:42:51,139 所以 1332 00:42:51,139 --> 00:42:53,019 这是怎么回事 1333 00:42:55,500 --> 00:42:57,659 去年他们确实表现很好 1334 00:42:57,659 --> 00:42:59,420 而前年则非常糟糕 1335 00:42:59,420 --> 00:43:00,679 这股票波动性很大 1336 00:43:00,679 --> 00:43:06,110 但我认为这些数据支持股票长期上涨 1337 00:43:06,110 --> 00:43:07,969 产品收入增长30% 1338 00:43:07,969 --> 00:43:10,909 谁能实现产品收入30%增长 1339 00:43:10,909 --> 00:43:13,590 RPO增长42% 1340 00:43:13,590 --> 00:43:15,889 巨额递延收入 1341 00:43:15,889 --> 00:43:17,369 31% 1342 00:43:17,369 --> 00:43:20,349 净留存率125% 1343 00:43:20,349 --> 00:43:22,250 他们的客户非常喜爱产品 1344 00:43:22,250 --> 00:43:23,769 新产品即将推出 1345 00:43:23,769 --> 00:43:25,110 指导方针非常合理 1346 00:43:25,110 --> 00:43:26,349 我觉得稍微保守了些 1347 00:43:26,349 --> 00:43:31,090 但我们正在学习这个管理团队实际上比之前的管理团队更加保守 1348 00:43:31,090 --> 00:43:33,889 我认为利润率最终能达到十五% 1349 00:43:33,889 --> 00:43:37,210 运营利润率最终可能达到十五% 1350 00:43:37,210 --> 00:43:38,829 我的意思是他们刚做到了九% 1351 00:43:38,829 --> 00:43:42,030 我觉得这个业务有很强的运营杠杆效应 1352 00:43:42,030 --> 00:43:42,969 我觉得这其实 1353 00:43:42,969 --> 00:43:43,389 呃 1354 00:43:43,389 --> 00:43:45,929 正在与整个软件行业同步 1355 00:43:45,929 --> 00:43:47,409 我认为这就是机会所在 1356 00:43:47,409 --> 00:43:47,750 不过 1357 00:43:47,750 --> 00:43:54,510 这家公司产品收入增长一直保持二十五到三十个百分点 1358 00:43:54,510 --> 00:43:56,699 我认为这种情况还会持续相当长时间 1359 00:43:56,699 --> 00:43:58,179 所以你增持了Synopsis 1360 00:43:58,179 --> 00:44:00,059 这就是你之前提到的那个 1361 00:44:00,059 --> 00:44:00,579 当你 1362 00:44:00,579 --> 00:44:02,108 你说你减持了亚马逊 1363 00:44:02,108 --> 00:44:03,708 然后增持了其他标的 1364 00:44:03,708 --> 00:44:05,628 这就是那个标的 1365 00:44:06,860 --> 00:44:08,139 这就是那个 1366 00:44:08,139 --> 00:44:09,360 这就是那个标的 1367 00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,139 这季度表现非常出色 1368 00:44:11,139 --> 00:44:13,139 这是一个非常保守的指引 1369 00:44:13,139 --> 00:44:15,400 这就是股价下跌五个百分点的原因 1370 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,090 但该股从高点已下跌三五个百分点 1371 00:44:18,090 --> 00:44:19,570 earnings增长24% 1372 00:44:19,570 --> 00:44:21,710 营收增长66% 1373 00:44:21,710 --> 00:44:24,940 设计自动化业务增长96% 1374 00:44:24,940 --> 00:44:27,360 这些都是关键业务 1375 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:28,380 这些产品已经售出 1376 00:44:28,380 --> 00:44:31,489 销售给半导体公司的软件 1377 00:44:31,489 --> 00:44:34,219 面向先进半导体公司的产品 1378 00:44:34,219 --> 00:44:35,940 随着AI技术的日益复杂 1379 00:44:35,940 --> 00:44:37,940 他们越需要Synopsis和Cadence 1380 00:44:37,940 --> 00:44:38,519 顺便说一句 1381 00:44:38,519 --> 00:44:40,199 并且交易市盈率仅六倍 1382 00:44:40,199 --> 00:44:41,460 相比Cadence折价 1383 00:44:41,460 --> 00:44:44,429 他们刚刚完成了重大收购 1384 00:44:44,429 --> 00:44:46,809 我认为这将推动增长 1385 00:44:46,809 --> 00:44:51,840 使公司可拓展市场从今日的三十一亿美元扩大至五 1386 00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:53,719 八亿美元到2028年 1387 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,909 我实在看不出为什么股价下跌这么多 1388 00:44:56,909 --> 00:44:58,570 尤其是在近期表现良好的情况下 1389 00:44:58,570 --> 00:44:59,909 但指引较为保守 1390 00:44:59,909 --> 00:45:02,090 这是一个保守的指引 1391 00:45:02,090 --> 00:45:06,420 就我们认为被低估的股票而言 1392 00:45:06,420 --> 00:45:07,539 显然被低估 1393 00:45:07,539 --> 00:45:08,179 被严重低估 1394 00:45:08,179 --> 00:45:09,139 Service Titan 1395 00:45:09,139 --> 00:45:10,099 我们来看看这个 1396 00:45:10,099 --> 00:45:11,699 因为这只股票下跌了34% 1397 00:45:11,699 --> 00:45:12,480 今年以来 1398 00:45:15,179 --> 00:45:17,000 而且很可能没有下跌34% 1399 00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:17,739 今年以来的情况 1400 00:45:17,739 --> 00:45:19,519 因为股市上涨接近7% 1401 00:45:19,519 --> 00:45:20,159 嗯 1402 00:45:20,159 --> 00:45:23,429 这是怎么回事？你的股票今天突然大涨 1403 00:45:23,429 --> 00:45:24,909 所以我又加仓了这只 1404 00:45:24,909 --> 00:45:26,929 并在期间加仓了Toast 1405 00:45:26,929 --> 00:45:27,349 呃 1406 00:45:27,349 --> 00:45:28,409 那些不愉快的事情 1407 00:45:28,409 --> 00:45:28,849 呃 1408 00:45:28,849 --> 00:45:30,170 上周不是这周 1409 00:45:30,170 --> 00:45:33,340 嗯，我认为最明显的话要说 1410 00:45:33,340 --> 00:45:35,280 以Service Titan为例 1411 00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,380 这家公司成立至今 1412 00:45:37,380 --> 00:45:40,679 上市仅一年一个月左右 1413 00:45:40,679 --> 00:45:42,980 他们缺乏机构支持 1414 00:45:42,980 --> 00:45:45,480 当人们开始抛售软件股时 1415 00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,000 这并非所有相关股票 1416 00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:48,139 股价暴跌 1417 00:45:48,139 --> 00:45:49,679 人们甚至不了解公司业务 1418 00:45:49,679 --> 00:45:51,739 这就是它跌到那个低点的原因 1419 00:45:51,739 --> 00:45:53,289 这简直是世界上最蠢的事 1420 00:45:53,289 --> 00:45:54,090 如果你认为 1421 00:45:54,090 --> 00:45:59,469 木工、水管工和电工会跑去自己开发客户管理软件 1422 00:45:59,469 --> 00:46:01,929 这显然永远不会发生 1423 00:46:01,929 --> 00:46:03,090 所以嗯 1424 00:46:03,090 --> 00:46:04,610 这在我看来是个绝佳机会 1425 00:46:04,610 --> 00:46:05,750 这就是我继续加仓的原因 1426 00:46:05,750 --> 00:46:06,590 而且呃 1427 00:46:06,590 --> 00:46:08,679 我不说会立刻涨回100 1428 00:46:08,679 --> 00:46:11,079 我无法理解理性的人 1429 00:46:11,079 --> 00:46:14,739 会认为这个东西面临AI威胁 1430 00:46:14,739 --> 00:46:15,360 好的 1431 00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,480 Zoom也是类似情况，听好了 1432 00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:18,980 Josh Brown 1433 00:46:18,980 --> 00:46:20,519 你根本不懂，听好了 1434 00:46:20,519 --> 00:46:21,440 你根本不懂 1435 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:22,139 先生 1436 00:46:22,139 --> 00:46:22,940 呃 1437 00:46:22,940 --> 00:46:27,789 显然因为特斯拉机器人要取代所有水管工和电工 1438 00:46:27,789 --> 00:46:29,119 就在明年 1439 00:46:29,119 --> 00:46:30,119 当然你知道像 1440 00:46:30,119 --> 00:46:30,840 天啊 1441 00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:31,340 总之 1442 00:46:31,340 --> 00:46:31,679 呃 1443 00:46:31,679 --> 00:46:32,840 你知道这市场真是疯狂 1444 00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:34,719 疯狂的时间在下结论 1445 00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:35,719 恐惧如同 1446 00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:36,039 你知道的 1447 00:46:36,039 --> 00:46:36,780 只是疯狂的事情 1448 00:46:36,780 --> 00:46:37,469 但你知道的 1449 00:46:37,469 --> 00:46:38,510 作为长期投资者 1450 00:46:38,510 --> 00:46:39,730 专注于 1451 00:46:39,730 --> 00:46:41,030 你知道钱在哪里 1452 00:46:41,030 --> 00:46:44,269 专注于在优质公司中建立股权并且啊 1453 00:46:44,269 --> 00:46:44,929 玩这个游戏 1454 00:46:44,929 --> 00:46:45,230 好的 1455 00:46:45,230 --> 00:46:46,670 感谢大家一如既往地加入我 1456 00:46:46,670 --> 00:46:47,570 非常感谢你们的到来 1457 00:46:47,570 --> 00:46:48,750 今天锁定评论区 1458 00:46:48,750 --> 00:46:50,980 如果你想加入我的私人股票群 1459 00:46:50,980 --> 00:46:52,340 获取我的Discord权限 1460 00:46:52,340 --> 00:46:53,960 与六七位数成员交流 1461 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,239 我们已超过三千名成员 1462 00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,480 私密群中实力强劲 1463 00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,119 获取所有课程大纲 1464 00:47:00,119 --> 00:47:01,869 获取独家每周视频 1465 00:47:01,869 --> 00:47:03,230 了解优秀的损益表 1466 00:47:03,230 --> 00:47:04,130 所有这些好东西 1467 00:47:04,130 --> 00:47:06,179 好的，充满爱意，祝你度过美好一天
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