260428-高盛-中远海运能源：2026年第一季度业绩回顾：略好于下调后的市场预期；行业整合持续；成品油轮运力趋紧；买入

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嗨大家好

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如果你最近一直在盯全球航运板块

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那你绝对能感受到市场里那股炽热的情绪

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今天咱们的这期解析

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就要直接拆解一份非常有意思的高盛研报

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看看华尔街的分析师们

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为什么现在会对中远海能这家公司爱得深沉

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咱们不玩虚的

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就完全跟着这份研报里的核心数据和逻辑

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带你把这股热潮背后的底层驱动力扒个底朝天

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一上来最抓人眼球的就是这个数字了

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说实话

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当你在一份极其严谨的机构研报里

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看到他们对H股给出了高达69.2%

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的潜在上涨空间时

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真的很难不让人多看两眼

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这自然就会引出一个非常关键的问题

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究竟是什么样的主线逻辑和基本面力量

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敢支撑起这么夸张的预期增长呢

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为了彻底搞清楚这一点呢

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咱们接下来的拆解会分五步走

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首先看看大宏观上的游轮超级周期

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接着咱们钻进微观

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去拆解一下他们一季度的财报

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然后再对比一下原油和成品邮轮的市场现状

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理顺了这些

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咱们再来盘一盘高盛的核心看涨逻辑

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最后当然也不能忘了

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客观地评估一下未来的预测和潜在风险

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好了

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咱们先进入第一部分

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聊聊这个正在酝酿的游轮超级周期

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在咱们一头扎进那些复杂的财务模型之前呀

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有必要先对个暗号

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也就是VLCC超大型原油轮

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千万别觉得这是个干巴巴的缩写

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这些家伙可是真正的海上巨兽

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是全球原油贸易里永远不知疲倦的主力军

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你就把它们想象成

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能在海上移动的巨型油库就行了

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更关键的是

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他们正是中远海能手里最核心的王牌资产

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所以懂了VLCC现在的处境

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你基本就看懂这份报告的底色了

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另外一个咱们必须要懂的行话

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叫TCE

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全称是等价期租租金诶

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别被这个专业词汇给绕晕了

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其实特别好懂

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说白了就是华尔街甚至整个航运圈

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用来衡量这些大船

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每天到底能往口袋里穿多少钱的一个基准指标

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在接下来的利润分析里

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你会发现这个收益体检表简直无处不在

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那么重点来了

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高盛在报告里毫不避讳地指出

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一场VLCC超级周期正在上演

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大家注意啊

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超级周期这种词

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分析师平时可绝对不会轻易掏出来用的

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按照研报的说法

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这个周期之所以成型

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靠的就是眼下极度紧缺的航运运力

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再加上行业内部一刻没停的资源整合

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这简直就是一个教科书级别的供不应求大叙事

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带着刚才说的大宏观背景

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咱们进入第二步

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拿放大镜

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看看中原海能今年一季度的财报

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到底打出了怎样的底盘

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毫不夸张的说

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他们这次是狠狠地超出了市场的预期

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一季度直接拿下了21亿人民币的

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调整后净利润

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你要知道

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去年第四季度其实稍微有点低迷

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当时整个市场的情绪是偏悲观的

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甚至把预期调低到了18~19个亿

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但结果呢

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靠着咱们刚才提到的VLC

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CTC1费率的强势兑现

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人家轻轻松松就跨过了这道坎儿

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咱们再细看这笔账啊

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虽说因为整体航运周转量稍微降了一点点

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导致他们没能完全够到高盛自己设定的

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24个亿的超高预期

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但是咱们退一步看大盘

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人家财报上写的可是实打实的22亿人民币

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净利润跟去年同期一比

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我的天啊

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直接飙升到惊人的207percent

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就算扣除掉那些一次性的处置收益

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那也是咱们刚才说的20一个亿

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这种同比增速真的是非常强悍的

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盈利引擎在轰鸣了

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你肯定会好奇

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到底多大的家底才能造出这么强的利润机器

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看看这个船队规模分布图就懂了

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他们手里握着的

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可是目前全世界规模最大的上市邮轮船队

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62艘国际原油轮

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里面有45艘是咱们前面说的那种

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VRCC巨无爆

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另外还配了31艘国际成品油轮

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和54艘内贸邮轮

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这就意味着什么

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意味着只要市场上的运费一涨

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靠着这么庞大的规模效应

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他们绝对是吃肉吃的最多的那批人

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接下来是第三部分

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咱们把原油轮和成品油轮拆开来对比着

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看看报告里的图表

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把中远海能日均TC费率的狂飙展现的淋漓尽致

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一季度

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他们的原油轮TC同比直接大涨了166倍

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成品油轮这边也涨了29倍

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即便我们把那些长期协议和不同航线的差异

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都算进去

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这种真金白银往里进的收益跃升

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也是肉眼可见的清晰

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更有意思的是

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报告里还提到了一个极具戏剧性的市场怪象

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正在给这把火添柴

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你看啊

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因为原油市场的运费利润实在太香了

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又很多本来拉成品油的L22型船

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跑去接原油的单子了

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而且数量还创了记录

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这相当于什么呢

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就好像满大街的公交车突然全跑去干货拉拉了

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结果就是公交系统运力瞬间抽干

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你要打车的话

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那价格能不直线往上窜吗

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这种跨界直接把成品邮轮的运费给强行推高了

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懂了这些现象

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咱们来到第四部分

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把华尔街看涨

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它的核心逻辑给彻底串起来

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这个超级周期的形成

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就像是推倒了一排多米诺骨牌

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你顺着逻辑链儿看

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最开始是地缘政治摩擦

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逼着大船们不得不绕路走

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这一绕路航程自然就被拉长了

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船都在海上漂着

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回不来

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市场上的可用运力就被大量消耗

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最后水到渠成

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运费价格直接冲破屋顶

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这是一条由结构性需求抬升打造的完美闭环

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而且你要知道

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不仅是需求端在疯狂踩油门

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供给端这头还在死死的踩着刹车

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现在全球造船厂的新船订单少得可怜

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短期内根本指望不上新船下水来救火

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同时呢现有的全球船队都在慢慢变老

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更觉得是为了满足越来越严的环保法规

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那些老旧的船甚至还得被迫减速慢行

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来控制排放

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你品一品船本来就少

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变老了

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还跑得慢了

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这供给侧的瓶颈算是被彻底锁死了

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好最后咱们来到第五部分

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看看未来的财务预测和那些不能布防的风险

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也就是因为前面说的这种极其变态的供需失衡

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高盛在报告里大笔一挥

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把中原海能2026年的预期净资产收益率

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也就是大家常说的OOE

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大幅上调到了非常硬气的23.6帕

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正是因为有这种扎实的盈利预期托底

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才直接给咱们一开始看到的

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那个大幅上调的目标价

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提供了最硬核的估值支撑

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不过咱们做解析嘛肯定要保持绝对的客观

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不能光看贼吃肉

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不见贼挨打

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报告也很实诚地列出了三大下行风险

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第一如果OPEC那边突然决定大幅减产怎么办

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第二要是造船厂突然爆单

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新船交付速度远远超出预期吗

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第3万1

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全球经济大环境变差

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大家对石油的需求萎缩了呢

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这些都是悬在超级周期头顶上

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随时可能砸下来的达摩克利斯之剑

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好啦

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今天咱们把这个买入评级从里到外扒了一遍

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看清了全球航运两端

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那些极其坚固的结构性限制

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也盘点了未来的预测和风险

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最后我想把这个问题抛给你

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在这个充满了地缘博弈

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船队老化以及环保新规的复杂大航海时代

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你觉得这个游轮超级周期

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啾啾还有多大的狂奔空间呢

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希望今天的拆解能给你带来一些有价值的启发

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咱们下期解析不见不散

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