【Financial Education】Tom Lee：95%跌幅已过去，我的最新买入清单

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啊，老天啊，这些人

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今天这里有些煎饼在疯狂翻转

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各种疯狂的操作

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好的

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今天fubo股价上涨了近25%

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我们必须谈谈这个视频

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视频开头提到的这只股票

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我们必须谈谈视频开头的sofi股票

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来聊聊这些股票

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同时在视频开头展示我的潜在买入清单

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我这里有很多股票要讨论

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接下来我要回应这个视频

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汤姆·李

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这些股票的风险回报相当不错

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现在汤姆·李说

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期待在视频中做出反应

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然后是杰米·迪亚蒙德

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可能是世界上最重要的人

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在金融银行领域

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没错

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他发布了年度股东信

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谈到了很多风险因素

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诸如此类的内容

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期待回应他的视频内容

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顺便感谢大家的加入

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有一点

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只需要大家一点支持

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点个赞按钮

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希望你们度过了美好的长周末

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我准备好摇滚了，嗯

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深入探讨这些疯狂行情和财报季

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即将到来啊

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即将拉开序幕

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这周然后尤其是下周

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接下来四周将非常疯狂

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之后

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好的

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今天在下方评论区留言

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为大家准备了一个免费工作坊

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如何管理你的投资组合

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财富各阶段

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从首笔五千元到百万以上

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所以无论怎样

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你在财富旅程中的阶段

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关于投资组合管理

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我会提供一些技巧

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窍门

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步骤

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如何最佳管理投资组合

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无论情况如何

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你现在的位置是第三

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这是一个将被置顶的五分钟视频

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请在下方评论

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这个是可以免费访问的

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好的

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明白了

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那我们到这里开始吧

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好的

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一开始就要注意

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听着

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如果你是amd股东

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你必须非常兴奋

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你必须非常兴奋

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好的

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自从伊朗局势爆发以来

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amd股价已上涨近11%

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而标普500指数下跌

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amd表现强劲，涨幅达3.5%

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未来几个月这种超额表现可能更显著

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原因是45系列芯片将在夏季大规模量产

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随着春季的到来

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简而言之

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我认为会有大量 hype 和兴奋

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持续流入amd股票

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随着我们接近一些惊人数据

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你知道的

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我们之前从未见过amd这样的增长速度

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我们将在今年晚些时候宣布

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我们很久很久没见到amd这样的增长了

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amd目前的增长率非常出色

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但我觉得他们即将进入全新阶段

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amd的未来非常令人兴奋

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如果你是amd股东

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就坐下来享受接下来的时间吧

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好的

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呃

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fubo今日大幅上涨

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约两

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4.25%

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今日股价已上涨至此

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关于他们

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因此他们今日发布了令人振奋的消息

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fubo今日调整了调整后ebitda（息税折旧摊销前利润）

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税项

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折旧

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摊销展望，涵盖2026和2028财年

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并确认了现金预测

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呃

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fubo tv处于公司历史最佳财务状态

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基于当前展望

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是大卫

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甘特勒

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是的

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百分百确定

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我觉得这完全是一个很公平的观点

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就像了解损益表的人

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资产负债表

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这类东西

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Foo处于最佳位置

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他们从未有过如此好的局面

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差距巨大

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没错

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指引和长期财务目标

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财政2026年

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调整后息税折旧前利润

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指引为80至1亿美元

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就是今年对吧

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财政2028年

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调整后息税前利润目标为

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至少

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这是关键

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至少3亿美元

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所以就在两年后

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不像

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这是十年后的预测

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还有几年时间对吧

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谈论至少调整后息税折旧前利润3亿美元

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这将是巨大的正向自由现金流

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预计2020年

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按当前运营计划的财政2027年和2028年

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这规模巨大

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基于当前展望

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我们预计在财政2026年实现调整后息税前利润80-1亿美元

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财政2026年调整后息税前利润

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并瞄准至少3亿美元调整后

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财政2028年息税前利润

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哇

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我的意思是

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这有点

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相当可观

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现在相当可观

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最大的收获就是

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最终对吧

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最大的收获是

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这意味着Fubo前景良好

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从现在开始

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他们不需要外部资本

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他们不需要

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你知道的

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稀释股东价值

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他们不需要这些

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他们状态很好

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他们表现不错，所以我不需要背负巨额债务

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或者类似的情况

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现在他们状态很好

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在当前时间节点

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现在此刻

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他们曾讨论过

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基于我们当前运营计划

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我们有足够的现金支持业务

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这一点至关重要

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所以如果你在想

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哦

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不会有大幅稀释吗？不

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他们已经完全排除了这个选项

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现在

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我们有足够的现金支持业务

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包括债务义务并投资增长

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我们预计将处于净现金状态

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呃

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净现金状况

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现金及现金等价物

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超过所有债务

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在2028财年管理债务水平

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同时延长债务到期日

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我们有约3.23亿美元债务义务

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直到2029年无到期日

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截至3月

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我们的2029年债券接近面值交易

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我们认为这反映了信用

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投资者信心

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我们的财务稳定

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这一点并未反映在股价中

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我同意这持续改善

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重要的是

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我们预计这一趋势将持续

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我对公司未来充满信心

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财务状况使我们具备投资灵活性

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以更高水平竞争并服务客户，超越历史任何阶段

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我的意思是

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这是关于Fubo最好的消息

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这并不意外

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不过

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这完全不出所料

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哦

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顺便说一句

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Fubo

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公司持续通过Hulu Plus Live TV提供NBC环球内容

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提醒一下

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Hulu Plus Live TV以更大规模运营

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虽然我们承认fubo服务目前不包含nbcu内容

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我们整体公司的影响相对有限

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这是因为fubo服务的影响低于预期

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此外许多客户包括现有fubo用户寻求nbcu内容

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可通过hulu plus live tv访问该节目

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因为这是其他事项之一

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因为你知道像奥运会是在NBC播出的

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以及类似的事情对吧

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所以对我来说这完全在预料之中

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这也是我一直在买入fubo股票的原因

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但我认为对于任何有担忧的人来说

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并不清楚对吧

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我认为这正是从fubo高层听到的好消息

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所以这是好消息

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总之这对fubo来说都是好消息

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如果你是fubo股东

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今天是个非常激动人心的日子

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fubo股票未来会有更好的日子

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我可以肯定这一点

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好的

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好的

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接下来我们要看的是elf几乎上涨了4%

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日 cheesecake

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上涨约3%

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嗯celsius

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看看celsius

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今天

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上涨4%

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所以我现在

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关于sofi的情况是

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听着如果市场即将反弹

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风险偏好回升

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所以我可以大胆

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你知道这家公司有强劲的增长率

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一旦市场再次转向风险偏好

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资金会迅速回流到

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因此最终他们拥有强劲增长

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在银行业领域

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在金融科技领域

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你很难找到增长速度

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所以我确实

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他们是独一无二的存在

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所以需要理解

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一旦市场转向风险偏好

245
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,139
sofi将再次大幅上涨

246
00:07:30,139 --> 00:07:30,839
接下来

247
00:07:30,839 --> 00:07:32,000
我可能重回20上方

248
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:32,399
现在

249
00:07:32,399 --> 00:07:33,829
我们能否突破30

250
00:07:33,829 --> 00:07:37,250
这可能需要更长时间

251
00:07:37,250 --> 00:07:38,269
请记住这一点

252
00:07:38,269 --> 00:07:39,629
股票很多时候

253
00:07:39,629 --> 00:07:41,029
如果你长期在市场中

254
00:07:41,029 --> 00:07:41,990
你应该知道这个说法

255
00:07:41,990 --> 00:07:43,329
他们上楼走楼梯

256
00:07:43,329 --> 00:07:44,670
下楼坐电梯

257
00:07:44,670 --> 00:07:47,088
所以股票可能上涨

258
00:07:47,088 --> 00:07:47,408
继续上涨

259
00:07:47,408 --> 00:07:48,209
但你知道

260
00:07:48,209 --> 00:07:49,048
当局势混乱时

261
00:07:49,048 --> 00:07:50,769
它们会暴跌

262
00:07:50,769 --> 00:07:52,168
尤其是对于大盘股

263
00:07:52,168 --> 00:07:54,548
这家沙发公司绝对是一只高增长股票

264
00:07:54,548 --> 00:07:58,228
因此，一旦市场转向风险偏好，该股将表现极佳

265
00:07:58,228 --> 00:07:59,949
如果市场再次抛售

266
00:07:59,949 --> 00:08:01,329
所以我也会随市场抛售

267
00:08:01,329 --> 00:08:03,009
这正是绝佳的买入机会

268
00:08:03,009 --> 00:08:04,709
对于希望投资这家公司的投资者

269
00:08:04,709 --> 00:08:05,529
并非所有人都会这样做

270
00:08:05,529 --> 00:08:06,649
伴随的风险也存在

271
00:08:06,649 --> 00:08:07,389
所以我说

272
00:08:07,389 --> 00:08:09,290
他们处于银行业领域

273
00:08:09,290 --> 00:08:10,930
他们专注于借贷业务

274
00:08:10,930 --> 00:08:12,790
他们尽可能轻资产运营

275
00:08:12,790 --> 00:08:15,889
这有助于度过市场风暴

276
00:08:15,889 --> 00:08:17,709
他们力求技术驱动

277
00:08:17,709 --> 00:08:19,410
正如你所知

278
00:08:19,410 --> 00:08:21,338
收取费用而非

279
00:08:21,338 --> 00:08:22,178
你知道的

280
00:08:22,178 --> 00:08:25,529
承担全部贷款风险

281
00:08:25,529 --> 00:08:27,029
但话说回来

282
00:08:27,029 --> 00:08:27,589
嗯

283
00:08:27,589 --> 00:08:27,970
你知道的

284
00:08:27,970 --> 00:08:29,490
该股票仍存在风险

285
00:08:29,490 --> 00:08:30,829
我们都清楚这一点

286
00:08:30,829 --> 00:08:33,370
但这是我愿意承担的风险

287
00:08:33,370 --> 00:08:35,450
为银行业和金融科技的未来

288
00:08:35,450 --> 00:08:36,830
凭借这样的增长速度

289
00:08:36,830 --> 00:08:40,879
我愿意承担这个风险，美国运通今日小幅上涨

290
00:08:40,879 --> 00:08:46,019
让我展示我的潜在买入清单顺便说一下

291
00:08:46,019 --> 00:08:47,279
我认为这很有趣

292
00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:48,620
在介绍潜在买入前

293
00:08:48,620 --> 00:08:51,330
观察列表是芬尼

294
00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:51,889
我抱歉打断

295
00:08:51,889 --> 00:08:52,129
嗯

296
00:08:52,129 --> 00:08:52,710
科技巨头

297
00:08:52,710 --> 00:08:54,519
科技巨头仍是混合状态

298
00:08:54,519 --> 00:08:58,860
这让人感觉市场仍在寻找方向

299
00:08:58,860 --> 00:09:00,889
市场仍在寻找方向

300
00:09:00,889 --> 00:09:02,850
你知道当科技巨头未动

301
00:09:02,850 --> 00:09:04,289
目前仍处于高度不确定性中

302
00:09:04,289 --> 00:09:06,669
特斯拉依然非常疲软

303
00:09:06,669 --> 00:09:08,279
微软的走势依然疲弱

304
00:09:08,279 --> 00:09:10,240
你知道这只股票明显被重挫过

305
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,500
它已脱离近期低点

306
00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:16,480
但软银先生过去数月经历惨烈下跌

307
00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:17,019
六个月时间

308
00:09:17,019 --> 00:09:21,609
软银先生下跌28%，而标普500仅跌2%

309
00:09:21,609 --> 00:09:22,609
在三个月周期内

310
00:09:22,609 --> 00:09:26,249
微软下跌21%，对标普500仅跌5%

311
00:09:26,249 --> 00:09:29,100
这可不是好消息

312
00:09:29,100 --> 00:09:31,139
软银先生确实被重创了

313
00:09:31,139 --> 00:09:33,700
其实我甚至在一整年周期内看好这只股票

314
00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:35,039
微软仅上涨4%

315
00:09:35,039 --> 00:09:35,419
与此同时

316
00:09:35,419 --> 00:09:38,500
标普500过去五年上涨30%

317
00:09:38,500 --> 00:09:39,120
看看这个

318
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,279
即使在五年周期内

319
00:09:40,279 --> 00:09:41,600
微软现在开始走弱

320
00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,720
而标普500过去五年上涨60%

321
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,259
微软上涨45%

322
00:09:46,259 --> 00:09:47,399
我喜欢微软当前的走势

323
00:09:47,399 --> 00:09:48,139
但我并不狂热

324
00:09:48,139 --> 00:09:49,179
可能不会买入

325
00:09:49,179 --> 00:09:51,559
因为我认为现在市场有更好的机会

326
00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,179
不过话说回来真是惊人

327
00:09:54,179 --> 00:09:56,320
看到它跌到这个位置真是有趣

328
00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:00,419
MU股再次走强，成为最典型的高风险高回报标的

329
00:10:00,419 --> 00:10:01,840
当前市场中最受关注的股票

330
00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:02,980
这就是那种

331
00:10:02,980 --> 00:10:03,860
你知道的

332
00:10:03,860 --> 00:10:05,200
市场开始上涨时

333
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,139
天啊

334
00:10:06,139 --> 00:10:08,940
MU股突然爆发式上涨，市场回调时

335
00:10:08,940 --> 00:10:10,139
MU股遭到重挫

336
00:10:10,139 --> 00:10:12,529
现在市场典型的高风险偏好切换

337
00:10:12,529 --> 00:10:13,110
让我展示给你看

338
00:10:13,110 --> 00:10:14,669
我的潜在买入观察列表

339
00:10:14,669 --> 00:10:18,850
这就是我的潜在买入观察列表嗯

340
00:10:18,850 --> 00:10:20,690
没有特定顺序

341
00:10:20,690 --> 00:10:21,110
没错

342
00:10:21,110 --> 00:10:22,570
宝洁公司在此列

343
00:10:22,570 --> 00:10:24,759
我真的很想

344
00:10:24,759 --> 00:10:25,500
或许建立仓位

345
00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:25,799
这只股票

346
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:26,980
如果涨到15美元

347
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,080
16美元区间

348
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:29,039
17美元也很合适

349
00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:29,320
我的意思是

350
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,220
即使18美元也很合理，估值实在太低了

351
00:10:32,220 --> 00:10:33,220
用于沐浴和身体护理

352
00:10:33,220 --> 00:10:35,200
不过我希望它能稍微低一点

353
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:35,519
说实话

354
00:10:35,519 --> 00:10:36,759
我真的非常欣赏诚实

355
00:10:36,759 --> 00:10:39,220
比如我认为股票年底前会涨到五倍以上

356
00:10:39,220 --> 00:10:40,720
无论市场状况如何

357
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:41,659
但我们将拭目以待

358
00:10:41,659 --> 00:10:43,600
不过我很想再多买一些诚实品牌

359
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:44,000
这里

360
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:44,460
耐克

361
00:10:44,460 --> 00:10:47,210
我们都清楚我对耐克服务的看法

362
00:10:47,210 --> 00:10:47,830
是的

363
00:10:47,830 --> 00:10:49,889
这只股票仍值得在百元左右买入

364
00:10:49,889 --> 00:10:51,769
尤其是能以低于百元的价格购入服务股

365
00:10:51,769 --> 00:10:52,129
作为买入选择

366
00:10:52,129 --> 00:10:52,850
在我看来

367
00:10:52,850 --> 00:10:54,429
Meta是长期持有标的

368
00:10:54,429 --> 00:10:54,610
只是

369
00:10:54,610 --> 00:10:56,149
不要对短期波动过于兴奋

370
00:10:56,149 --> 00:10:57,610
对吧嗯

371
00:10:57,610 --> 00:10:59,549
他们还对Meta做了有趣调整

372
00:10:59,549 --> 00:11:00,690
不知道你们有没有看到这个

373
00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,678
但他们在逐步退出

374
00:11:03,678 --> 00:11:06,099
允许人们用信用卡支付广告费

375
00:11:06,099 --> 00:11:07,139
据我了解

376
00:11:07,139 --> 00:11:08,058
他们开始提供

377
00:11:08,058 --> 00:11:10,178
比如

378
00:11:10,889 --> 00:11:13,769
他们玩这个游戏的方式很有趣

379
00:11:13,769 --> 00:11:14,590
他们

380
00:11:14,590 --> 00:11:18,220
也在类似给予用户信用额度

381
00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:20,799
比如长期大量投放广告的用户

382
00:11:20,799 --> 00:11:22,409
相当于给予他们

383
00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:23,769
几乎像一种

384
00:11:23,769 --> 00:11:24,870
我不想称之为信用

385
00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:25,889
因为它并非真正的信用

386
00:11:27,289 --> 00:11:28,889
以便投放更多广告

387
00:11:28,889 --> 00:11:29,230
没错

388
00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:30,669
即使只是社交媒体上的一个人

389
00:11:30,669 --> 00:11:31,850
前几天他在谈论

390
00:11:31,850 --> 00:11:33,309
我们现在多了一点

391
00:11:33,309 --> 00:11:34,649
两百万美元可支配资金

392
00:11:34,649 --> 00:11:35,190
用于投放广告

393
00:11:35,190 --> 00:11:36,049
这很有趣

394
00:11:36,049 --> 00:11:38,370
因为我认为如果他们这样做

395
00:11:38,370 --> 00:11:40,679
可能会提升广告金额

396
00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,039
他们能显著提高广告收费

397
00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:45,159
这对Meta显然非常有利

398
00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:46,759
所以我不确定会如何发展

399
00:11:46,759 --> 00:11:48,840
他们肯定已经做了详细测算

400
00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,299
他们所做的任何事情都是正确的决定对吧

401
00:11:51,299 --> 00:11:51,919
呃

402
00:11:51,919 --> 00:11:53,659
Adobe仍然是买入选择

403
00:11:53,659 --> 00:11:54,929
Paypal

404
00:11:55,289 --> 00:11:56,090
Paypal

405
00:11:56,090 --> 00:11:56,610
呃

406
00:11:56,610 --> 00:11:57,529
惠而浦是其中之一

407
00:11:57,529 --> 00:11:59,129
我还在仔细查看这里

408
00:11:59,129 --> 00:12:01,409
亚马逊对长期投资者来说始终是买入选择

409
00:12:01,409 --> 00:12:03,740
自90年代上市以来一直是买入标的

410
00:12:03,740 --> 00:12:04,960
今天依然保持买入建议

411
00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,500
美国运通始终是买入选择

412
00:12:06,500 --> 00:12:07,940
今日仍维持买入评级

413
00:12:07,940 --> 00:12:08,980
罗宾hood

414
00:12:08,980 --> 00:12:11,500
你知道如果比特币见底了

415
00:12:11,500 --> 00:12:12,899
那么罗宾hood已经见底

416
00:12:12,899 --> 00:12:14,769
但如果它继续下跌

417
00:12:14,769 --> 00:12:17,750
假设比特币跌至3万美元区间

418
00:12:17,750 --> 00:12:20,080
这个季度罗宾hood跌幅更大

419
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,159
在这种环境下罗宾hood肯定会跌破50

420
00:12:23,159 --> 00:12:26,279
甚至可能跌至40或30区间

421
00:12:26,279 --> 00:12:28,708
如果这种情况发生的话

422
00:12:28,708 --> 00:12:29,308
我们之前已经讨论过

423
00:12:29,308 --> 00:12:32,168
现在丝芙兰70美元是绝佳买入点

424
00:12:32,168 --> 00:12:32,589
我的意思是

425
00:12:32,589 --> 00:12:34,428
尤其是能以低于这个价格入手

426
00:12:34,428 --> 00:12:37,110
始终是买入或H的情况很有趣

427
00:12:38,190 --> 00:12:40,470
我还没准备好入场

428
00:12:40,470 --> 00:12:40,809
RH

429
00:12:40,809 --> 00:12:41,850
但我会持续关注

430
00:12:41,850 --> 00:12:43,068
持续关注它

431
00:12:43,068 --> 00:12:44,428
Elf是当前重大买入机会

432
00:12:44,428 --> 00:12:45,589
凯斯尔也是绝佳买入标的

433
00:12:45,589 --> 00:12:47,428
RH我现在就会买入

434
00:12:47,428 --> 00:12:48,188
如果不是因为这个

435
00:12:48,188 --> 00:12:49,629
市场上还有太多其他机会

436
00:12:49,629 --> 00:12:52,600
比如我该选择买入RH1美元

437
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,100
还是Elf63美元左右

438
00:12:55,100 --> 00:12:55,440
呃

439
00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:56,399
凯斯尔3.5美元

440
00:12:56,399 --> 00:12:58,639
我肯定会买入凯斯尔

441
00:12:58,639 --> 00:12:59,980
这在当前市场很困难

442
00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:02,080
现在有很多优质机会

443
00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:02,879
但必须做出选择

444
00:13:02,879 --> 00:13:03,960
挑选最佳标的

445
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:04,559
没错

446
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:06,679
Hymns仍是买入Fubo

447
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:07,039
顺便说一句

448
00:13:07,039 --> 00:13:08,399
今日涨幅已达25%

449
00:13:08,399 --> 00:13:09,059
依然保持买入

450
00:13:09,059 --> 00:13:10,568
为了明确一下关于fubo

451
00:13:10,568 --> 00:13:13,708
所以你知道这只股票已经被送进屠宰场了

452
00:13:13,708 --> 00:13:14,469
所以是的

453
00:13:14,469 --> 00:13:16,568
即使上涨了百分之五也还是今天

454
00:13:16,568 --> 00:13:18,629
 hymns在关注这只股票

455
00:13:18,629 --> 00:13:21,110
还在继续深入调查

456
00:13:21,110 --> 00:13:21,710
好的

457
00:13:21,710 --> 00:13:22,389
好的

458
00:13:22,389 --> 00:13:22,549
现在

459
00:13:22,549 --> 00:13:23,190
我们继续吧

460
00:13:23,190 --> 00:13:24,129
我们来回应一些视频

461
00:13:24,129 --> 00:13:25,389
包括tall

462
00:13:25,389 --> 00:13:26,129
呃

463
00:13:26,129 --> 00:13:26,769
顺便说一下

464
00:13:26,769 --> 00:13:28,070
今天下方的第二个置顶评论

465
00:13:28,070 --> 00:13:31,429
如果你想访问所有我的高级课程

466
00:13:31,429 --> 00:13:32,870
加入我的私人Discord聊天室

467
00:13:32,870 --> 00:13:34,169
独家每周视频

468
00:13:34,169 --> 00:13:35,450
所有这些优质内容

469
00:13:35,450 --> 00:13:37,129
那就是下方的置顶评论

470
00:13:37,129 --> 00:13:38,370
或者下方的第二个置顶评论

471
00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:39,730
再次指向第一个置顶评论

472
00:13:39,730 --> 00:13:41,259
将是这个免费

473
00:13:41,259 --> 00:13:42,399
三五分钟工作坊

474
00:13:42,399 --> 00:13:44,799
我为大家准备的关于管理投资组合

475
00:13:44,799 --> 00:13:45,879
适用于财富各个阶段

476
00:13:45,879 --> 00:13:47,048
Tumely fun

477
00:13:47,048 --> 00:13:47,688
Strat资本

478
00:13:47,688 --> 00:13:49,989
以及CNBC专栏作者

479
00:13:49,989 --> 00:13:51,448
很高兴见到你Tom March

480
00:13:51,448 --> 00:13:51,969
呃

481
00:13:51,969 --> 00:13:54,149
像熊市一样入场

482
00:13:54,710 --> 00:13:55,409
保持稳定

483
00:13:55,409 --> 00:13:56,950
保持像熊市的状态

484
00:13:56,950 --> 00:14:01,019
我认为它在标普指数开盘时接近6869

485
00:14:01,019 --> 00:14:02,320
我们得到63

486
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:03,580
大约50

487
00:14:03,580 --> 00:14:05,139
然后上周反弹

488
00:14:05,139 --> 00:14:06,220
我们回到65

489
00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:06,779
80

490
00:14:06,779 --> 00:14:08,250
你的选择

491
00:14:08,610 --> 00:14:11,009
我觉得像你们的很多预测

492
00:14:11,009 --> 00:14:13,129
近期会有波动

493
00:14:13,129 --> 00:14:16,990
但最终会成功解决

494
00:14:16,990 --> 00:14:19,789
三月的情况并未如此

495
00:14:19,789 --> 00:14:22,470
也许事情进展比你预期更久

496
00:14:22,470 --> 00:14:23,509
对于这场战争

497
00:14:23,509 --> 00:14:25,990
但只是推迟了一个月

498
00:14:25,990 --> 00:14:26,929
不是吗

499
00:14:26,929 --> 00:14:28,539
是的 嗯

500
00:14:28,539 --> 00:14:29,299
你知道吗

501
00:14:29,299 --> 00:14:31,950
随着三月的展开

502
00:14:31,950 --> 00:14:34,570
这场战争似乎不会是一场短期战争

503
00:14:34,570 --> 00:14:35,809
但你知道这可能更持久

504
00:14:35,809 --> 00:14:38,649
我认为市场已经对此进行了调整

505
00:14:38,649 --> 00:14:39,590
嗯

506
00:14:39,590 --> 00:14:40,529
但正如你所知

507
00:14:40,529 --> 00:14:42,409
我们仍处于战争迷雾之中

508
00:14:42,409 --> 00:14:42,610
因为

509
00:14:42,610 --> 00:14:43,830
我们不知道何时结束

510
00:14:43,830 --> 00:14:48,789
但我们回顾了过去七次重大战争事件

511
00:14:48,789 --> 00:14:52,309
股市调整得相当迅速

512
00:14:52,309 --> 00:14:56,529
在战争持续时间的前十分之一阶段

513
00:14:56,529 --> 00:14:58,470
股市通常见底

514
00:14:58,470 --> 00:14:59,679
所以你知道

515
00:14:59,679 --> 00:15:02,019
二战持续了近五年

516
00:15:02,019 --> 00:15:04,899
而市场在开战五个月后就见底

517
00:15:04,899 --> 00:15:09,440
因此我认为尽管三月很糟糕

518
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:13,179
我们可能已看到大部分调整

519
00:15:13,179 --> 00:15:16,590
现在我认为股票的风险收益比相当理想

520
00:15:16,590 --> 00:15:21,679
九十到九十五%的利空已成过去

521
00:15:21,679 --> 00:15:22,580
在你看来

522
00:15:22,580 --> 00:15:23,340
是的

523
00:15:23,340 --> 00:15:26,320
我认为人们有些犹豫

524
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:30,000
因为如果有人在三月卖出并持有

525
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,970
他们可能在高点下跌三到四个百分点

526
00:15:32,970 --> 00:15:35,090
而现在仅下跌了五个百分点

527
00:15:36,169 --> 00:15:37,289
他们陷入两难

528
00:15:37,289 --> 00:15:41,399
因为市场仅比他们卖出时略低

529
00:15:41,399 --> 00:15:44,700
但市场只需小幅反弹即可恢复

530
00:15:44,700 --> 00:15:49,769
因此我认为持有现金的投资者必须开始考虑

531
00:15:49,769 --> 00:15:51,289
 bingo

532
00:15:51,289 --> 00:15:53,299
女士们先生们请听

533
00:15:53,539 --> 00:15:56,600
这就是卖出股票最困难的地方

534
00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,139
清仓并玩这场游戏

535
00:15:59,139 --> 00:15:59,580
哦

536
00:15:59,580 --> 00:16:00,820
我认为市场还会继续下跌

537
00:16:00,820 --> 00:16:03,509
所以我会在某个时间点重新买入

538
00:16:03,509 --> 00:16:04,950
没错，就像

539
00:16:04,950 --> 00:16:05,490
好的

540
00:16:05,490 --> 00:16:07,269
假设你在三月的某个时间点这样做

541
00:16:07,269 --> 00:16:08,730
当大家都在抛售时

542
00:16:08,730 --> 00:16:09,669
现在你开始观察

543
00:16:09,669 --> 00:16:11,070
然后你会想

544
00:16:11,070 --> 00:16:13,500
也许股价接近你卖出时的价格

545
00:16:13,500 --> 00:16:14,740
也许略低一些

546
00:16:14,740 --> 00:16:15,919
也许略高一些

547
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:17,700
但现在你正在玩这场危险游戏

548
00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:19,000
然后你会说

549
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:19,899
我该怎么办

550
00:16:19,899 --> 00:16:20,639
我该怎么办

551
00:16:20,639 --> 00:16:21,440
我要买回来吗

552
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:22,620
我要在场边等待吗

553
00:16:22,620 --> 00:16:23,759
你知道的

554
00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:25,639
想象一下市场再次转向风险偏好

555
00:16:25,639 --> 00:16:26,799
接下来你就会发现

556
00:16:26,799 --> 00:16:28,639
纳斯达克重回新旧高点

557
00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:29,779
道指创下历史新高

558
00:16:29,779 --> 00:16:33,340
P五也该现在入场了

559
00:16:33,340 --> 00:16:33,679
比如

560
00:16:33,679 --> 00:16:34,360
你知道吗

561
00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:37,379
这确实是个棘手的局面

562
00:16:37,379 --> 00:16:42,370
人们总会在这种疯狂时期恐慌

563
00:16:42,370 --> 00:16:43,169
千万别这么做

564
00:16:43,169 --> 00:16:45,090
兄弟保持冷静

565
00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:45,899
坚持下去

566
00:16:45,899 --> 00:16:46,259
我不管

567
00:16:46,259 --> 00:16:47,720
即使遭遇50%崩盘

568
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:48,460
保持投资

569
00:16:48,460 --> 00:16:50,529
你知道这种情况几乎不会发生

570
00:16:50,529 --> 00:16:52,529
但如果你全程持有

571
00:16:52,529 --> 00:16:53,490
逢低全仓买入

572
00:16:53,490 --> 00:16:54,710
收入超过支出

573
00:16:54,710 --> 00:16:55,629
你随时可以行动

574
00:16:55,629 --> 00:16:56,870
你又不明天就退休

575
00:16:56,870 --> 00:16:58,590
这就是游戏规则

576
00:16:58,590 --> 00:16:59,009
对吧

577
00:16:59,009 --> 00:17:00,269
否则你将陷入这种模式

578
00:17:00,269 --> 00:17:01,509
只会惨不忍睹

579
00:17:01,509 --> 00:17:01,850
我说

580
00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:06,509
这种心理消耗简直令人精疲力尽

581
00:17:06,509 --> 00:17:08,028
哦要不要反向加仓

582
00:17:08,028 --> 00:17:09,028
你知道的

583
00:17:09,028 --> 00:17:11,799
然后市场开始反向打击你

584
00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:13,160
即使市场开始下跌

585
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:13,720
你也会说

586
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:14,220
我太聪明了

587
00:17:14,220 --> 00:17:16,539
我成功了对吧

588
00:17:16,539 --> 00:17:17,618
何时重新入场

589
00:17:17,618 --> 00:17:19,219
当标普500下跌

590
00:17:19,219 --> 00:17:19,739
10%

591
00:17:19,739 --> 00:17:21,078
或15%左右

592
00:17:21,078 --> 00:17:22,659
我们可能到20%或30%

593
00:17:22,659 --> 00:17:23,058
比如

594
00:17:23,058 --> 00:17:24,609
谁知道会跌到多低

595
00:17:24,609 --> 00:17:27,269
这游戏实在残酷

596
00:17:27,269 --> 00:17:32,138
所以我建议大家，统计和数学证明

597
00:17:32,138 --> 00:17:33,500
这也是个糟糕决定

598
00:17:33,500 --> 00:17:33,940
你知道的

599
00:17:33,940 --> 00:17:35,480
试图在市场外博弈

600
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:36,099
我在市场上

601
00:17:36,099 --> 00:17:39,940
听着兄弟，你可以把所有精力都花在什么上

602
00:17:39,940 --> 00:17:42,638
你把所有精力都花在专注上

603
00:17:43,650 --> 00:17:46,549
研究优秀公司和它们成功的原因对吧

604
00:17:46,549 --> 00:17:47,809
参加电话会议

605
00:17:47,809 --> 00:17:48,809
运行财务预测

606
00:17:48,809 --> 00:17:49,410
处理数据

607
00:17:49,410 --> 00:17:50,970
你可以花时间做这些

608
00:17:50,970 --> 00:17:53,640
好吧

609
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,420
这场战争与其说是危机

610
00:17:58,019 --> 00:18:00,119
人们最初只关注负面

611
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,519
但随后需要考虑机会

612
00:18:02,519 --> 00:18:05,259
他们提到石油市场的假启动

613
00:18:05,259 --> 00:18:06,679
当它暴跌时

614
00:18:06,679 --> 00:18:10,420
我们曾一度下跌两三百点

615
00:18:10,779 --> 00:18:11,839
特朗普发表了言论

616
00:18:11,839 --> 00:18:13,460
我们上涨了1300点

617
00:18:13,460 --> 00:18:16,700
现在是否仍处于超买状态

618
00:18:16,700 --> 00:18:17,859
但要谨慎

619
00:18:17,859 --> 00:18:18,480
就像

620
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:19,740
我觉得大家都说

621
00:18:19,740 --> 00:18:19,980
是的

622
00:18:19,980 --> 00:18:21,380
我们以前见过这种情况

623
00:18:21,380 --> 00:18:23,900
我们需要更多真实

624
00:18:24,220 --> 00:18:25,779
但在它再次行动前

625
00:18:25,779 --> 00:18:27,180
在它再次行动前

626
00:18:27,180 --> 00:18:27,460
就像这样

627
00:18:27,460 --> 00:18:28,700
但会有什么样的动作

628
00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:33,740
如果伊朗明确承认协议

629
00:18:33,740 --> 00:18:35,180
因为他们至今未承认任何事

630
00:18:35,180 --> 00:18:37,369
但这正是他们的策略

631
00:18:37,730 --> 00:18:38,170
是的

632
00:18:38,170 --> 00:18:38,710
我是说

633
00:18:38,710 --> 00:18:41,210
你认为真的超买吗

634
00:18:41,210 --> 00:18:41,849
因为首先

635
00:18:46,299 --> 00:18:49,970
这是股市最大驱动力

636
00:18:50,170 --> 00:18:53,849
股市因国防开支有所提振

637
00:18:53,849 --> 00:18:56,210
经济状况并不糟糕

638
00:18:56,210 --> 00:18:57,940
石油股表现良好

639
00:18:57,940 --> 00:18:58,559
对啊

640
00:18:58,559 --> 00:18:59,980
石油股表现不错

641
00:18:59,980 --> 00:19:01,759
但如果中东和平

642
00:19:01,759 --> 00:19:04,849
当然有长期利好

643
00:19:04,849 --> 00:19:08,420
如果出现意外战争结束

644
00:19:08,420 --> 00:19:10,740
反应会非常剧烈

645
00:19:10,740 --> 00:19:11,359
正如你所说

646
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:12,259
我只是想读给你听

647
00:19:12,259 --> 00:19:13,500
我们刚才讨论的内容

648
00:19:13,500 --> 00:19:14,940
莱斯莉之前提到的

649
00:19:14,940 --> 00:19:16,380
这是杰米·迪尔蒙德的信

650
00:19:16,380 --> 00:19:17,789
总体看涨

651
00:19:17,789 --> 00:19:19,549
但他提出了这一点

652
00:19:19,549 --> 00:19:20,369
呃

653
00:19:20,369 --> 00:19:21,210
在结尾部分

654
00:19:21,210 --> 00:19:22,529
大致一个章节

655
00:19:22,529 --> 00:19:23,029
他说

656
00:19:23,029 --> 00:19:24,009
派对里的臭鼬

657
00:19:24,009 --> 00:19:25,970
这可能在2026年发生

658
00:19:25,970 --> 00:19:28,880
现在相当于通胀

659
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,099
正在缓慢上升

660
00:19:30,099 --> 00:19:31,880
而非缓慢下降

661
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,220
这可能导致利率上升

662
00:19:34,220 --> 00:19:35,640
资产价格下跌

663
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,619
这会让凯文·沃尔什的工作更困难

664
00:19:38,619 --> 00:19:42,589
嗯，利率几乎像重力一样影响

665
00:19:42,589 --> 00:19:43,809
资产价格和下跌

666
00:19:43,809 --> 00:19:46,960
资产价格一旦变化会迅速影响情绪

667
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,700
并引发现金抢购

668
00:19:49,859 --> 00:19:51,099
你对此的反应

669
00:19:52,140 --> 00:19:52,740
顺便说一下

670
00:19:52,740 --> 00:19:54,039
这是他的下行情景

671
00:19:54,039 --> 00:19:56,109
这就是他的分析框架

672
00:19:56,109 --> 00:19:57,869
我认为这是大家的担忧

673
00:19:57,869 --> 00:20:01,029
因为我们过去六年经历了多次通胀冲击

674
00:20:01,029 --> 00:20:02,470
在最近的六年里

675
00:20:02,470 --> 00:20:05,059
首先是新冠供应链冲击

676
00:20:05,059 --> 00:20:06,880
然后是关税冲击

677
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,869
现在是战争引发的冲击

678
00:20:09,869 --> 00:20:14,049
没有人希望消费者突然预期价格上涨

679
00:20:14,049 --> 00:20:17,220
所以我认为大家都在密切关注

680
00:20:17,220 --> 00:20:20,859
但这并不意味着仅仅因为价格上涨

681
00:20:20,859 --> 00:20:23,539
由于汽油价格

682
00:20:23,539 --> 00:20:25,940
通胀预期就会脱锚

683
00:20:25,940 --> 00:20:31,759
我认为现在美联储必须保持信誉

684
00:20:31,759 --> 00:20:35,829
让消费者不预期未来价格上涨

685
00:20:35,829 --> 00:20:38,359
7700点仍是你的选择

686
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:39,059
呃

687
00:20:39,059 --> 00:20:42,420
我们在周五做了大量分析

688
00:20:42,420 --> 00:20:43,359
不知道你是否看到

689
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:44,519
耗费数小时

690
00:20:44,519 --> 00:20:45,359
我们做了一个小时

691
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,579
但我们带来了非常好的就业数据

692
00:20:48,579 --> 00:20:49,180
到

693
00:20:49,180 --> 00:20:49,960
呃

694
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,319
这令所有人意外

695
00:20:52,319 --> 00:20:53,079
ACE

696
00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:55,069
那个

697
00:20:55,069 --> 00:20:57,589
双重目标两侧的风险

698
00:20:57,589 --> 00:21:00,089
一直是大家关注的焦点

699
00:21:00,089 --> 00:21:00,549
你做不到

700
00:21:00,549 --> 00:21:01,670
就连他们两个都很糟糕

701
00:21:01,670 --> 00:21:03,489
你甚至分不清哪个更糟

702
00:21:03,489 --> 00:21:05,368
这是否缓解了

703
00:21:05,368 --> 00:21:07,230
疲软的劳动力市场

704
00:21:07,230 --> 00:21:07,750
担忧

705
00:21:08,529 --> 00:21:12,420
市场因战争滋生的担忧

706
00:21:12,420 --> 00:21:13,660
我 是的

707
00:21:13,660 --> 00:21:16,779
我认为投资者需要记住

708
00:21:16,779 --> 00:21:19,740
战时开支是

709
00:21:19,740 --> 00:21:21,140
你知道三十亿美元

710
00:21:21,140 --> 00:21:25,589
可能每月增至一百亿美元的经济刺激

711
00:21:25,589 --> 00:21:28,390
这确实提振了经济

712
00:21:28,390 --> 00:21:36,829
汽油每上涨十美元相当于每月四到五亿美元

713
00:21:36,829 --> 00:21:37,930
对消费者的冲击

714
00:21:37,930 --> 00:21:41,910
战争每月支出远高于

715
00:21:41,910 --> 00:21:43,509
石油的影响

716
00:21:43,509 --> 00:21:46,179
这是一种对

717
00:21:46,179 --> 00:21:46,838
嗯

718
00:21:46,838 --> 00:21:49,778
关于战争本质的

719
00:21:50,778 --> 00:21:53,459
这是否就是你

720
00:21:54,278 --> 00:21:54,979
呃

721
00:21:54,979 --> 00:21:56,699
不那么担心通胀

722
00:21:56,699 --> 00:21:58,618
长期坚持下去

723
00:21:58,618 --> 00:21:59,900
呃

724
00:22:00,380 --> 00:22:00,940
你知道的

725
00:22:00,940 --> 00:22:01,359
这

726
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,759
如果这是短期战争

727
00:22:03,759 --> 00:22:08,420
油价曲线似乎不认为会持续到你这边

728
00:22:08,420 --> 00:22:08,859
是的

729
00:22:08,859 --> 00:22:09,559
那么我

730
00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:10,960
这将是通胀冲击

731
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:12,630
不是通胀

732
00:22:12,630 --> 00:22:16,470
但你不认为美联储近期会降息

733
00:22:16,470 --> 00:22:18,150
如果对就业不担忧

734
00:22:18,150 --> 00:22:19,289
画面

735
00:22:19,690 --> 00:22:20,049
不

736
00:22:20,049 --> 00:22:20,369
不会

737
00:22:20,369 --> 00:22:21,809
短期内没道理

738
00:22:21,809 --> 00:22:23,730
我的意思是市场预期正确

739
00:22:23,730 --> 00:22:23,890
正确

740
00:22:23,890 --> 00:22:24,829
没问题

741
00:22:24,829 --> 00:22:25,670
你知道的

742
00:22:25,670 --> 00:22:26,250
是的

743
00:22:26,250 --> 00:22:26,529
嗯

744
00:22:26,529 --> 00:22:30,490
能源股自战争爆发以来表现良好

745
00:22:30,490 --> 00:22:33,969
第二最佳资产是以太坊

746
00:22:33,969 --> 00:22:35,568
第三最佳是比特币

747
00:22:35,568 --> 00:22:40,088
两者绝对收益上涨并跑赢股市

748
00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:41,869
这个观点很有趣

749
00:22:41,869 --> 00:22:44,210
我们继续深入调查吧

750
00:22:44,210 --> 00:22:46,549
看看这里是否准确

751
00:22:46,549 --> 00:22:51,549
所以他想要比特币对吧

752
00:22:51,890 --> 00:22:56,650
首先我们需要查证事情的起始时间

753
00:22:56,650 --> 00:22:59,049
所以是四月底

754
00:22:59,319 --> 00:23:00,480
哎呀别闹

755
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,400
我的交易视图出问题了

756
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:03,299
天啊

757
00:23:03,299 --> 00:23:06,190
我的图表无法正常显示

758
00:23:06,190 --> 00:23:08,329
你翻我的煎饼啊

759
00:23:08,329 --> 00:23:09,289
或许我选三

760
00:23:09,289 --> 00:23:11,630
或者是因为比特币不允许我

761
00:23:11,630 --> 00:23:13,170
我们选三个月

762
00:23:13,170 --> 00:23:13,890
嗯不过

763
00:23:13,890 --> 00:23:14,789
还是三个月

764
00:23:14,789 --> 00:23:15,349
但总之

765
00:23:15,349 --> 00:23:18,250
我们需要撰写相关文章

766
00:23:19,220 --> 00:23:20,319
在这里看看

767
00:23:20,319 --> 00:23:21,200
好的

768
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:22,859
所以没错

769
00:23:22,859 --> 00:23:25,059
比特币对标普走势良好

770
00:23:25,059 --> 00:23:27,449
我们选择这个

771
00:23:27,769 --> 00:23:29,348
选择AMD

772
00:23:29,348 --> 00:23:34,128
AMD啊太棒了

773
00:23:34,128 --> 00:23:36,108
看以太坊超越AMD

774
00:23:36,108 --> 00:23:37,148
真是糟糕

775
00:23:37,148 --> 00:23:38,769
比特币落后AMD

776
00:23:38,769 --> 00:23:42,068
但三者均被标普500超越挺有意思的

777
00:23:42,068 --> 00:23:42,769
好的

778
00:23:42,769 --> 00:23:43,289
好吧

779
00:23:43,289 --> 00:23:43,869
汤姆·李

780
00:23:43,869 --> 00:23:45,109
接下来是

781
00:23:45,109 --> 00:23:47,289
杰米·迪隆可能是最重要的人

782
00:23:47,289 --> 00:23:48,789
它试图说未必

783
00:23:48,789 --> 00:23:50,609
他是金融和银行界最重要的人

784
00:23:53,569 --> 00:23:55,848
杰米·迪隆今早谈AI

785
00:23:55,848 --> 00:23:59,189
他表示AI投资不是投机泡沫

786
00:23:59,189 --> 00:24:04,380
长期将大幅提升生产力

787
00:24:04,380 --> 00:24:07,940
他肯定创造和淘汰部分岗位

788
00:24:07,940 --> 00:24:11,140
也会带来重大新风险

789
00:24:11,140 --> 00:24:14,380
从深度伪造到网络威胁

790
00:24:14,380 --> 00:24:17,140
私人信贷的漏洞问题

791
00:24:17,140 --> 00:24:18,200
指出实际

792
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:18,819
呃

793
00:24:18,819 --> 00:24:20,299
这是重大声明

794
00:24:20,299 --> 00:24:21,640
杰米·迪隆

795
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,059
他一向非常谨慎

796
00:24:25,059 --> 00:24:27,150
他通常比较谨慎

797
00:24:28,150 --> 00:24:29,849
告诉我那些恐怖的部分

798
00:24:29,849 --> 00:24:31,690
当杰米·迪蒙说这不是

799
00:24:31,690 --> 00:24:32,329
你知道的

800
00:24:32,329 --> 00:24:35,970
人工智能的支出不仅仅是投机性的疯狂

801
00:24:35,970 --> 00:24:37,519
支出或者类似的事情对吧

802
00:24:38,239 --> 00:24:39,378
这是个好消息对吧

803
00:24:39,378 --> 00:24:42,558
他非常认真地看待这些事情并持续跟进

804
00:24:42,558 --> 00:24:44,598
我的意思是能得到最深入的了解

805
00:24:44,598 --> 00:24:45,578
看看任何东西

806
00:24:45,578 --> 00:24:47,539
公平地说

807
00:24:47,539 --> 00:24:50,980
我认为大多数人工智能支出非常合理

808
00:24:50,980 --> 00:24:53,380
没错很多公司都是这样

809
00:24:53,380 --> 00:24:54,940
也许不是全部对吧

810
00:24:54,940 --> 00:24:56,699
永远不会有百分之百的

811
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,920
人工智能的应用场景在过去

812
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:03,460
我们可以称之为两到四个月对吧

813
00:25:03,460 --> 00:25:05,839
从几乎无人使用

814
00:25:05,839 --> 00:25:07,578
任何形式的人工智能

815
00:25:07,578 --> 00:25:08,979
就像两到四个月前

816
00:25:08,979 --> 00:25:12,338
除非你是超级技术前瞻型的人

817
00:25:12,338 --> 00:25:14,549
现在到了

818
00:25:14,549 --> 00:25:17,630
我可以说绝大多数人都在使用人工智能

819
00:25:17,630 --> 00:25:20,618
无论是编辑照片或视频

820
00:25:20,618 --> 00:25:21,419
可能

821
00:25:21,419 --> 00:25:23,138
用于工作相关的事情

822
00:25:23,138 --> 00:25:26,419
没错他们必须使用某种人工智能来辅助系统

823
00:25:26,419 --> 00:25:28,919
在某些方面可能只是个人生活

824
00:25:28,919 --> 00:25:33,479
比如使用Grok或Gemini或ChatGPT之类的

825
00:25:33,479 --> 00:25:38,049
现在我觉得几乎每个人都开始使用

826
00:25:38,049 --> 00:25:41,289
某种形式的人工智能

827
00:25:41,289 --> 00:25:44,430
这在两到四个月前简直是巨大的变化

828
00:25:44,430 --> 00:25:48,719
所以显然这些应用场景将继续攀升增长

829
00:25:48,719 --> 00:25:49,259
你知道的

830
00:25:49,259 --> 00:25:50,239
未来几年将持续发展

831
00:25:50,239 --> 00:25:53,159
可能甚至持续几十年

832
00:25:53,159 --> 00:25:57,170
所以所有支出都是合理的

833
00:25:57,170 --> 00:25:57,730
我不知道

834
00:25:57,730 --> 00:25:59,210
如何判断长期效果

835
00:25:59,210 --> 00:25:59,549
对吧

836
00:25:59,549 --> 00:26:00,750
比如说

837
00:26:00,750 --> 00:26:02,309
亚马逊今年投入两百亿

838
00:26:02,309 --> 00:26:03,269
这些是否都合理

839
00:26:03,269 --> 00:26:03,710
我不知道

840
00:26:03,710 --> 00:26:04,210
也许合理

841
00:26:04,210 --> 00:26:04,650
拭目以待

842
00:26:04,650 --> 00:26:05,190
你知道的

843
00:26:05,190 --> 00:26:06,690
AWS的数字如何

844
00:26:06,690 --> 00:26:07,329
Meta

845
00:26:07,329 --> 00:26:08,589
同样情况

846
00:26:08,589 --> 00:26:11,109
我们需要观察未来一两年的增长率

847
00:26:11,109 --> 00:26:14,549
这将立即告诉我们，当前水平已经略高于

848
00:26:14,549 --> 00:26:16,579
它们应与环境相对应

849
00:26:16,579 --> 00:26:18,269
他引用了某人的观点

850
00:26:18,269 --> 00:26:18,669
而且规模较大

851
00:26:18,669 --> 00:26:24,769
私人信贷通常缺乏透明度和严格的贷款估值

852
00:26:24,769 --> 00:26:26,029
他说在某个时候

853
00:26:29,888 --> 00:26:31,588
并指出如果出现问题

854
00:26:31,588 --> 00:26:34,289
零售投资者将寻求法院救济

855
00:26:34,289 --> 00:26:34,930
然而

856
00:26:34,930 --> 00:26:39,539
迪尔蒙德认为私人信贷可能不是系统性风险

857
00:26:39,539 --> 00:26:41,140
迪尔蒙德有一段长篇论述

858
00:26:41,140 --> 00:26:42,200
在信中提到

859
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,579
关于银行监管的内容

860
00:26:43,579 --> 00:26:49,490
他表示对几周前的新提案反应不一

861
00:26:49,490 --> 00:26:52,739
其中某些方面他认为是‘荒谬的’

862
00:26:52,739 --> 00:26:53,118
他说

863
00:26:53,118 --> 00:26:58,250
摩根大通可能需要为其大部分贷款持有多50%的资本

864
00:26:58,250 --> 00:27:01,490
相比通过这些提案的中型同行

865
00:27:01,490 --> 00:27:04,390
最后从宏观经济角度

866
00:27:04,390 --> 00:27:07,390
迪尔蒙德表示经济仍具韧性

867
00:27:07,390 --> 00:27:09,029
同时指出一些疲软迹象

868
00:27:09,029 --> 00:27:11,710
近期消费者有所疲软

869
00:27:11,710 --> 00:27:14,670
他重申了上个月在迈阿密对我们的说法

870
00:27:14,670 --> 00:27:16,960
那就像派对里的臭鼬

871
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,960
可能在2026年发生

872
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,759
他表示通胀将缓慢上升

873
00:27:21,759 --> 00:27:25,099
他说伊朗战争可能推高通胀和利率

874
00:27:25,099 --> 00:27:29,459
并警告未来可能出现更多石油和大宗商品波动

875
00:27:29,459 --> 00:27:30,470
各位

876
00:27:30,950 --> 00:27:31,509
莱斯利

877
00:27:31,509 --> 00:27:32,150
你的看法如何

878
00:27:32,150 --> 00:27:32,509
我意思是

879
00:27:32,509 --> 00:27:35,690
这封信中让我觉得有趣的部分是‘派对里的臭鼬’

880
00:27:35,690 --> 00:27:36,029
呃

881
00:27:36,029 --> 00:27:36,970
你提到的这一点

882
00:27:36,970 --> 00:27:38,410
以及私人信贷部分

883
00:27:38,410 --> 00:27:44,130
尽管如此，我认为他对私人信贷的评论

884
00:27:44,130 --> 00:27:47,130
虽未主张其系统性

885
00:27:47,130 --> 00:27:48,130
仍引发了一些疑问

886
00:27:48,130 --> 00:27:50,730
关于马克思相关部分的全部内容

887
00:27:50,730 --> 00:27:54,509
当思考立法或监管措施时

888
00:27:54,509 --> 00:27:56,130
人们会如何看待这些估值

889
00:27:56,130 --> 00:27:57,130
以及保险公司在标记这些资产的方式

890
00:27:57,130 --> 00:28:00,589
甚至保险公司在标记这些资产的方式

891
00:28:00,589 --> 00:28:02,829
这也是我认为非常有趣的部分

892
00:28:02,829 --> 00:28:05,130
因为我们多次听过他谈论私人信贷

893
00:28:05,130 --> 00:28:06,880
但具体聚焦

894
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,099
在透明度问题上

895
00:28:09,099 --> 00:28:12,369
关于马克思问题的部分让我感到很新

896
00:28:12,369 --> 00:28:16,179
此外，所有这些的监管影响

897
00:28:18,239 --> 00:28:19,420
其中很多

898
00:28:19,420 --> 00:28:22,140
当然都通过保险载体

899
00:28:22,140 --> 00:28:22,920
你有一个主题

900
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:23,680
例如

901
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,029
与阿波罗等机构相关

902
00:28:26,029 --> 00:28:28,569
还有零售投资者方面

903
00:28:28,569 --> 00:28:29,230
寻求补救

904
00:28:29,230 --> 00:28:32,589
这在一定程度上呼应了我们听到的 Lloyd Blankstein 的观点

905
00:28:32,589 --> 00:28:36,269
即如果卖给机构投资者

906
00:28:36,269 --> 00:28:40,269
但一旦大规模进入零售投资组合

907
00:28:40,269 --> 00:28:41,569
一旦出现问题

908
00:28:41,569 --> 00:28:44,640
可能带来重大声誉风险

909
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,819
我们上周显然目睹了 Blue Owl 的情况

910
00:28:46,819 --> 00:28:49,720
仍在持续亏损

911
00:28:49,759 --> 00:28:51,920
无论是其自身股价

912
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,638
还是那些想要退出这些载体的投资者

913
00:28:55,638 --> 00:28:58,699
问题是现在是否有人会进入这些载体

914
00:28:58,699 --> 00:29:01,538
以减轻他们的压力

915
00:29:01,538 --> 00:29:02,960
如果没有人这样做

916
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:03,900
会发生什么

917
00:29:03,900 --> 00:29:04,679
我意思是

918
00:29:04,679 --> 00:29:05,138
这种

919
00:29:05,138 --> 00:29:06,259
其中的讽刺之处在于

920
00:29:06,259 --> 00:29:07,778
我们尚未达到

921
00:29:07,778 --> 00:29:09,078
在私募信贷领域

922
00:29:09,078 --> 00:29:10,358
所有软件公司

923
00:29:10,358 --> 00:29:13,130
大家如此担忧的公司已破产

924
00:29:13,130 --> 00:29:16,289
因此尚未冲击信贷市场对吧

925
00:29:16,289 --> 00:29:19,609
所以一切都在预演

926
00:29:19,930 --> 00:29:20,369
是的

927
00:29:20,369 --> 00:29:21,849
这一点相当有趣

928
00:29:21,849 --> 00:29:23,599
在这些载体中的几例

929
00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:25,039
有趣的是

930
00:29:25,039 --> 00:29:28,930
尽管上周 Blue Owl 基金收到了大量赎回请求

931
00:29:28,930 --> 00:29:30,609
他们仍录得资金流入

932
00:29:30,609 --> 00:29:32,410
当然他们限制了赎回

933
00:29:32,410 --> 00:29:35,599
加上他们实施的赎回限制措施

934
00:29:35,599 --> 00:29:38,750
以及少量未被赎回的资金

935
00:29:38,750 --> 00:29:39,269
你知道的

936
00:29:39,269 --> 00:29:40,190
巨额赎回

937
00:29:40,190 --> 00:29:40,390
现在

938
00:29:40,390 --> 00:29:40,990
其中一些载体

939
00:29:40,990 --> 00:29:42,730
他们完全不允许赎回

940
00:29:42,730 --> 00:29:43,650
因此

941
00:29:43,650 --> 00:29:46,890
基金规模基本保持不变

942
00:29:46,890 --> 00:29:50,309
这意味着他们并未大幅损失管理费

943
00:29:50,309 --> 00:29:53,140
这个问题问得很好

944
00:29:53,140 --> 00:29:55,079
Andrew 是谁将

945
00:29:55,079 --> 00:29:55,559
你知道吗

946
00:29:55,559 --> 00:29:57,799
这里的边际流入量

947
00:29:57,799 --> 00:29:59,119
这不是针对零售客户

948
00:29:59,119 --> 00:30:00,920
机构投资者已无余力

949
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:01,480
是的

950
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:02,460
他们是否仍有兴趣

951
00:30:02,460 --> 00:30:04,279
鉴于所有负面新闻

952
00:30:04,279 --> 00:30:05,440
所以有件重要的事

953
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,099
我必须向大家解释

954
00:30:07,099 --> 00:30:07,660
好的

955
00:30:07,660 --> 00:30:09,000
听着

956
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,160
钱必须流向某个地方

957
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,440
钱必须流向某个地方对吧

958
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:14,940
拥有大量资金的人

959
00:30:14,940 --> 00:30:17,119
他们必须将其投入某个地方对吧

960
00:30:17,119 --> 00:30:17,970
嗯

961
00:30:17,970 --> 00:30:20,130
全世界有大量百万富翁

962
00:30:20,130 --> 00:30:21,240
千万富翁

963
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,640
你知道全球有亿万富翁对吧

964
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:24,359
简直难以置信

965
00:30:25,599 --> 00:30:26,079
我想说

966
00:30:26,079 --> 00:30:27,000
无限量的资金

967
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,750
巨额资金必须流向某个地方

968
00:30:31,750 --> 00:30:32,430
所以

969
00:30:32,430 --> 00:30:34,190
你有几个选择

970
00:30:34,190 --> 00:30:35,630
你可以直接持有现金

971
00:30:35,630 --> 00:30:36,109
听着

972
00:30:36,109 --> 00:30:37,589
我们处于通胀时期

973
00:30:37,589 --> 00:30:39,009
我们已持续处于通胀时期

974
00:30:39,009 --> 00:30:40,099
这并非新鲜事

975
00:30:40,099 --> 00:30:42,500
你只需持有现金

976
00:30:42,500 --> 00:30:43,429
直说

977
00:30:43,429 --> 00:30:45,388
美元正在贬值

978
00:30:45,388 --> 00:30:46,128
日复一日

979
00:30:46,128 --> 00:30:46,769
周复一周

980
00:30:46,769 --> 00:30:47,429
月复一月

981
00:30:47,429 --> 00:30:48,128
年复一年

982
00:30:48,128 --> 00:30:50,150
这真是糟糕的决定

983
00:30:50,150 --> 00:30:51,650
你不能只持有现金

984
00:30:51,650 --> 00:30:53,190
只是存放在大保险库

985
00:30:53,190 --> 00:30:54,710
这并非明智之举

986
00:30:54,710 --> 00:30:55,190
好的

987
00:30:55,190 --> 00:30:56,210
那接下来该怎么办

988
00:30:56,210 --> 00:30:56,809
你可以选择

989
00:30:56,809 --> 00:30:57,390
国债

990
00:30:57,390 --> 00:30:59,490
国债目前收益率不错

991
00:30:59,490 --> 00:31:02,089
过去半月国债大幅上涨

992
00:31:02,089 --> 00:31:05,500
大致而言你可以投资十年期

993
00:31:05,500 --> 00:31:06,380
也可以投资两年期

994
00:31:06,380 --> 00:31:07,380
你可以做你想做的事

995
00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:09,099
肯定有很多好的

996
00:31:09,099 --> 00:31:13,819
市面上有不少收益率显著高于通胀的优质投资

997
00:31:13,819 --> 00:31:15,029
你可以把钱放那里

998
00:31:15,029 --> 00:31:16,529
你可以投资私募信贷

999
00:31:16,529 --> 00:31:18,190
如果这就是你想做的

1000
00:31:18,190 --> 00:31:20,839
可以把钱交给风投投资者

1001
00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:22,319
如果这就是你的选择

1002
00:31:22,319 --> 00:31:27,539
或许投资能改变游戏规则的下一家华为公司

1003
00:31:27,539 --> 00:31:28,049
没错

1004
00:31:28,049 --> 00:31:28,730
好的

1005
00:31:28,730 --> 00:31:30,029
你可以投入房地产

1006
00:31:30,029 --> 00:31:32,589
房地产目前表现一般

1007
00:31:32,589 --> 00:31:32,910
没错

1008
00:31:32,910 --> 00:31:36,049
人们对房地产完全不感兴趣

1009
00:31:36,049 --> 00:31:36,900
现在

1010
00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:41,299
房地产投资者在市场几乎不存在

1011
00:31:41,299 --> 00:31:45,930
现在房地产基本无人问津

1012
00:31:45,930 --> 00:31:48,430
所以未来几年可能会有变化

1013
00:31:48,430 --> 00:31:50,430
但目前仍是如此

1014
00:31:50,430 --> 00:31:51,319
然后是股票

1015
00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:52,480
股票有些担忧

1016
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,960
现在有些人认为

1017
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:56,420
但其他人可能会关注

1018
00:31:56,420 --> 00:31:57,759
尤其是像SaaS领域

1019
00:31:57,759 --> 00:31:57,960
股票

1020
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:58,720
他们在讨论SaaS

1021
00:31:58,720 --> 00:31:59,039
股票没错

1022
00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:00,420
看看这些公司的估值

1023
00:32:00,420 --> 00:32:01,220
比如Salesforce

1024
00:32:01,220 --> 00:32:02,000
比如ServiceNow

1025
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:02,519
比如Adobe

1026
00:32:02,519 --> 00:32:04,380
看看它们的增长率

1027
00:32:04,380 --> 00:32:05,640
看看微软

1028
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,700
然后分析科技巨头的增长潜力

1029
00:32:08,700 --> 00:32:08,940
我说啊

1030
00:32:08,940 --> 00:32:10,200
Meta可能会有营收增长

1031
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,480
本季度预计增长30%以上

1032
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:14,059
天啊

1033
00:32:14,059 --> 00:32:15,160
这相当令人兴奋

1034
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,059
AWS的情况如何

1035
00:32:16,059 --> 00:32:17,200
本季度增长率

1036
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,710
亚马逊即将公布中20%左右

1037
00:32:19,710 --> 00:32:20,789
这很令人振奋

1038
00:32:20,789 --> 00:32:21,970
可能更高

1039
00:32:21,970 --> 00:32:23,130
如果超过这个水平

1040
00:32:23,130 --> 00:32:23,970
天啊

1041
00:32:23,970 --> 00:32:27,259
那该把钱投向哪里

1042
00:32:27,259 --> 00:32:29,339
资金必须去某个方向

1043
00:32:29,339 --> 00:32:30,960
每个人都必须理解

1044
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,460
资金必须流向某个地方

1045
00:32:32,460 --> 00:32:35,130
因此它可能会流向那里

1046
00:32:35,130 --> 00:32:37,089
它可以兴奋地流向那里

1047
00:32:37,089 --> 00:32:38,549
或者勉强流向那里

1048
00:32:38,549 --> 00:32:40,509
但资金正在流向某个地方

1049
00:32:40,509 --> 00:32:42,859
所以请记住

1050
00:32:42,859 --> 00:32:45,660
可能有很多人投入大量资金购买国债

1051
00:32:45,660 --> 00:32:46,299
在过去的

1052
00:32:47,299 --> 00:32:47,819
你知道的

1053
00:32:47,819 --> 00:32:49,700
六到七周时间

1054
00:32:50,579 --> 00:32:51,920
大量资金在那里

1055
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,700
因为国债一直在上涨

1056
00:32:53,700 --> 00:32:56,420
为什么不将资金转入国债而撤出股市呢

1057
00:32:56,420 --> 00:32:59,920
并且在过去的六周多时间里肯定有很多人抛售了股票

1058
00:33:01,700 --> 00:33:03,900
现在你可能会看到有趣的现象

1059
00:33:03,900 --> 00:33:06,380
假设国债因某种原因开始下跌

1060
00:33:06,380 --> 00:33:08,259
也许情况逐渐缓和

1061
00:33:08,259 --> 00:33:09,759
油价开始下跌

1062
00:33:09,759 --> 00:33:11,099
GSG开始下跌

1063
00:33:11,099 --> 00:33:11,740
通胀

1064
00:33:11,740 --> 00:33:12,929
恐惧开始消退

1065
00:33:12,929 --> 00:33:13,929
接下来你会发现

1066
00:33:13,929 --> 00:33:14,608
十年期国债

1067
00:33:14,608 --> 00:33:15,009
两年期国债

1068
00:33:15,009 --> 00:33:16,308
各类国债整体

1069
00:33:16,308 --> 00:33:18,009
突然开始下跌

1070
00:33:18,009 --> 00:33:19,989
然后资金突然意识到

1071
00:33:19,989 --> 00:33:21,549
让我们重新流入股市

1072
00:33:21,549 --> 00:33:22,509
接下来你会发现

1073
00:33:22,509 --> 00:33:24,359
市场达到历史新高

1074
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,599
所以这里需要注意

1075
00:33:26,599 --> 00:33:27,160
女士们先生们

1076
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,519
他的资金必须流向某个地方

1077
00:33:28,519 --> 00:33:31,119
永远不要忘记资金必须流向某个地方

1078
00:33:31,119 --> 00:33:32,839
并且可能勉强流向那里

1079
00:33:32,839 --> 00:33:34,569
必须放在这里

1080
00:33:34,569 --> 00:33:35,490
我就放在这里

1081
00:33:35,490 --> 00:33:37,329
或者以兴奋的方式流向那里

1082
00:33:37,329 --> 00:33:39,730
兴奋的方式通常出现在FOMO市场

1083
00:33:39,730 --> 00:33:42,900
或经历崩盘后人们变得兴奋

1084
00:33:42,900 --> 00:33:43,539
他们会说

1085
00:33:43,539 --> 00:33:43,740
哦

1086
00:33:43,740 --> 00:33:44,819
我们已经经历了崩盘

1087
00:33:44,819 --> 00:33:45,140
或者

1088
00:33:45,140 --> 00:33:45,720
你知道的

1089
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:45,980
哦

1090
00:33:45,980 --> 00:33:46,880
它要冲上天了

1091
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,769
你知道的

1092
00:33:49,769 --> 00:33:51,329
这视频就到这里

1093
00:33:51,329 --> 00:33:52,789
感谢大家一如既往地观看

1094
00:33:52,789 --> 00:33:53,950
非常感谢大家再次到来

1095
00:33:53,950 --> 00:33:55,109
那个免费工作坊

1096
00:33:55,109 --> 00:33:56,190
这是三个五分钟的工作坊

1097
00:33:56,190 --> 00:33:57,170
这是给你们的记录

1098
00:33:57,170 --> 00:33:58,410
几个周末前

1099
00:33:58,410 --> 00:34:01,450
这将是今天那里置顶的评论

1100
00:34:01,450 --> 00:34:03,450
这个主要置顶评论将免费开放访问

1101
00:34:03,450 --> 00:34:05,670
可以通过邮件或短信发送

1102
00:34:05,670 --> 00:34:06,740
无论你想通过哪种方式接收

1103
00:34:06,740 --> 00:34:08,119
今天的第二个置顶评论

1104
00:34:08,119 --> 00:34:10,400
对于想要组建自己预研股票小组的你们

1105
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,420
获取我所有精品课程的访问权限

1106
00:34:12,420 --> 00:34:14,139
访问千倍股票网

1107
00:34:14,139 --> 00:34:15,300
访问独家视频

1108
00:34:15,300 --> 00:34:16,000
由我提供

1109
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,019
查看市场动向

1110
00:34:17,019 --> 00:34:18,840
我每周都在制作所有优质内容

1111
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:19,179
好的

1112
00:34:19,179 --> 00:34:20,760
衷心祝福大家，祝您度过美好一天

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