【NaNa说美股】20260507终点站已到？

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大家好

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欢迎回来到南硕美股

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今天是5月7号

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周四

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美股四大股指从历史高位回落

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小幅收跌

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科技股表现分化

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半导体

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光通信存储

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数据中心等热门板块全线回调

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AI软件应用的走强

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资金高低切换

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在连续大涨之后

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部分资金也开始恐高了

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涌入英伟达等科技巨头避险

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投资者关注

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美国与伊朗潜在和平协议的最新进展

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盘前的时候

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有媒体报道称

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美国正在努力缓和以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击

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为维持停火并进入第二阶段谈判做准备

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美伊双方已经就霍尔木兹海峡逐步重新开放

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达成了共识

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局势即将迎来突破性的进展

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伊朗将允许滞留船只离开嗯

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革命卫队呢已经指定了两条航道供船只通行

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而一切都是好消息

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因此股指在早盘时间就继续走高

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但是随后伊朗国家电视台报道称

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美国必须先支付战争赔款

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霍尔木兹海峡才能够重新开放

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另外呢伊朗官方还发布了新的通行要求

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也规定

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船只必须向新成立的波斯湾海峡管理局

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提交详细信息啊

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才可以获得这个通行许可

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而且还得交钱哈

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这个举动呢

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正式确立了伊朗对这个海峡的控制权啊

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这一份名为船舶信息申报的文件

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就是由伊朗新成立的波斯湾海峡管理局

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发布的通行申请表

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伊朗议会国家安全官员还称

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川普关于会移除伊朗400kg油的说法呢

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是虚张声势和彻头彻尾的谎言

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没有任何油离开伊朗

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于是股指又应声下跌

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但是跌的也不多

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因为市场仍在等待进一步的消息

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而且在伊朗与川普之间

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华尔街当然选择听川普的

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只要双方的确有在谈判

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那川普就没有说谎

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至于谈不谈得成

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那又是另外一回事

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油价呢连续两天拉出了长下影线

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原油未平仓合约量跌到了8月以来的最低水平

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原因是交易员们因为霍尔木兹海峡封锁

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导致这个市场高度波动而撤离

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石油市场流动性急剧下降

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就没什么人去交易了

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法巴银行策略师呢

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他说了句真话

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他表示

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由于止损单最近频繁触发和难以预测的新闻

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原有市场已经变得几乎无法交易了

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那当然了

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游市现在全都是内幕交易在里面赚大钱

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没有内幕交易的人冲进去

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那都是送钱送人头的

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比如在昨天阿克修斯新闻网站曝出

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美姨即将达成A市值备忘录的前一个小时

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油市就出现了异动

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根据道琼斯市场数据

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当时有一位神秘交易员

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大手笔买入了近1万张原有空头合约

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名义价值高达9.2亿美元哈

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在阿克西斯消息发布后不久

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油价暴跌

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这一笔交易瞬间就盈利了1.25亿美元

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这一位神秘交易员呢随即就美滋滋的止盈离场

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伊朗官媒亲自下场

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这个称阿克修斯记者巴拉克拉维德

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多次就伊朗战事发布假消息

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连同他在美国政府内部的朋友们呃

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以操纵市场获利

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久发大财

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有小道消息说

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巴拉克拉维德其实是一名以色列摩萨德特工

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公开的身份呢是以川普公关团队成员身份啊

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呃做新闻工作

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操纵石油期货呃

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但巴拉克拉维德

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他否认了有关于白宫内部人士串通牟利的指控

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所以还是那句话

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原有市场看看就好了哈

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那个是大鳄鱼们厮杀的地方

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小鱼小虾米就别凑热闹了

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QQ今天在这个月度和年度阻力700美元

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预祝回落

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日K还没有回踩5日均线哈

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还有一段距离

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虽然美股呢正处于AI盈利散休的周期

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有基本面的支撑

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中产期仍有上涨空间

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今年年底肯定会比现在这个位置更高

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但是技术面上

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短线已经具备了阶段性过热和回调的条件

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标普500指数

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日内最高拉到7385点之后回落

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距离美银所说的这个阶段性顶部

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7377点呢只相差了八个点

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也许这一次真的让美银给蒙对了嗯

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市场可能会在下周二CPI与PPI数据公布之前哈

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先冷静下来

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自3月低点以来

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这一轮历史级别的反攻行情

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将投资者情绪呢推向了彭博策略十分编制的

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一项量化模型所显示的狂热区域哈

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这并不意味着崩盘立即到来

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因为这种背景通常与后续的进一步上涨

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同时出现

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只是涨幅会更温和温和

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上涨过后呢

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往往就会迎来一段调整时期了

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根据模型

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在2012年到2023年期间

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在市场情绪达到类似的狂热水平后的三个月内

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罗素3000指数平均回报率为2.9%

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就是三个月后哈

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美股还是入的正收益的

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在这些时期

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大盘股的表现往往会更好嗯

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标普500指数跑赢小盘股

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罗素2000指数约178个基点

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换句话来说

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接下来三个月又轮到大科技来表演了

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中小盘股前面疯涨

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现在要先休息一段时间

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如果没有英伟达值成者

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可能会跌更多

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最近这个废板走势实在太疯狂了

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资金扎堆抢购半导体股票

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就卖房卖车

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卖老婆

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卖儿子

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全都这个呃

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去炒半导体了哈

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周度ISSI

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都飙到1999年以来最高水平了

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是时候改回调了

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不然的话别说空投早就死绝了

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多头都快拿不住了

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好不好

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个股方面

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arm的股价呢跌超10%

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业绩与下个季度的营收指引都略高于市场预期

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表面上看财报并不差哈

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但是管理层在电话会议上提到

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新的CPU卡呢

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是面临供应链与成本端的不确定性呃

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市场于是迅速就把关注点从新产品打开

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增量空间

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切换到了新业务

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执行面临难度和盈利质量上

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对于arm这类前期涨幅较大

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估值本来就不低的股票而言

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执行层面任何的这一个推迟疑虑哈

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往往比单季数据更容易引发短线回吐呃

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这个股价日线有点像走出双头形态

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得突破周三这一根日K的高点才能够解除风险

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继续打开上行空间

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受业绩利好刺激

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AI应用软件股呢今天集体走强

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IGV跳空上涨

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触及上方半年线阻力哎

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所谓的业绩好那只是借口了嗯

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之前业绩企好之

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不见他涨

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就纯粹今天半导体回调嘛

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资金就找一个还处于低位的软件板块来这个呃

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避险

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顺便拉一下是吧

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云安全公司利他dog

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第一季度业绩超出华尔街预期

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营收10.06亿美元

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同比增长32%

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调整后每股收益60美分

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都好于预期

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季度末有4550名客户

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每年经产性收入至少为10万美元

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比去年增加了21%

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公司持有现金

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现金等价物48亿美元

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而且上调了2026财年业绩指引

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股价今天暴涨之后

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已经重返历史高位水平了

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阿波罗V股价日内低开高走

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收涨6.4%

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Q1营收同比增长59%

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净利润12亿美元

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同比增长109%

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第二季度指引也好

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于是残余期

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所以这盘前下跌简直毫无理由哈

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要么就是单纯为了诱空

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要么就是这个后面从半导体流出来的资金

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往软件这边跑

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所以又把股价给拉起来了

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现在股价需要突破

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并且站稳五百四三美元这条颈线之上

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才能够解除日线前面这个M双顶形态

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半年限与年限目前已来到这条颈线附近

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所以如果能突破这个水平

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对于修复市场信心呢有极大的帮助嗯

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FTNT股价暴涨了20%

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公司Q1营收同比增长20%

218
00:09:06,299 --> 00:09:09,179
每股收益同比增长41%

219
00:09:09,179 --> 00:09:10,659
达到82美分

220
00:09:10,659 --> 00:09:12,360
自有现金流创纪录

221
00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,159
达到了10.1亿美元

222
00:09:14,159 --> 00:09:15,700
Q2指引也乐观

223
00:09:15,700 --> 00:09:16,960
股价跳空高开后

224
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,940
同样回到了去年年初高位附近

225
00:09:19,940 --> 00:09:24,429
这些软件股此前一直遭受市场无情的打压

226
00:09:24,429 --> 00:09:25,970
如今借着财报

227
00:09:25,970 --> 00:09:28,070
尤其是借着半导体回调哈

228
00:09:28,070 --> 00:09:29,879
这修复的力度也是很强

229
00:09:29,879 --> 00:09:31,960
北美外卖平台的大事

230
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:33,659
股价今天呢高开低走

231
00:09:33,659 --> 00:09:36,249
尾盘收窄到2%嗯

232
00:09:36,249 --> 00:09:38,649
公司QE业绩超预期

233
00:09:38,649 --> 00:09:40,568
营收同比增长33%

234
00:09:40,568 --> 00:09:44,470
但是净利润下滑了5%到1.84亿美元

235
00:09:44,470 --> 00:09:46,549
公司此前因为油价飙升

236
00:09:46,549 --> 00:09:49,529
推出面向美国司机的燃油补贴计划

237
00:09:49,529 --> 00:09:53,089
导致相关成本压力一度超过了5000万美元

238
00:09:53,089 --> 00:09:57,828
二季度marketplace总订单额指引也高于预期

239
00:09:57,828 --> 00:10:02,349
显示配送需求和平台活跃度仍有任性

240
00:10:02,349 --> 00:10:06,029
就是消费者们还是呃愿意点外卖吃的哈

241
00:10:06,029 --> 00:10:09,460
这个并没有因为嗯通胀物价上升

242
00:10:09,460 --> 00:10:11,159
这减少这方面的支出

243
00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:12,759
昨天UBER的财报中呢

244
00:10:12,759 --> 00:10:16,039
也反映呃这个北美外卖业务的强劲

245
00:10:16,039 --> 00:10:18,659
如果二季度油价能快速回落的话

246
00:10:18,659 --> 00:10:21,980
公司成本下降有利于盈利预期的修正

247
00:10:21,980 --> 00:10:26,159
股价目前仍然较去年10月高点285美元

248
00:10:26,159 --> 00:10:28,059
回撤了约42%

249
00:10:28,059 --> 00:10:32,000
FLNC1季度业绩频频净亏损

250
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,879
从上年同期的3100万美元

251
00:10:34,879 --> 00:10:37,259
收窄到2090万美元

252
00:10:37,259 --> 00:10:38,159
公司表示

253
00:10:38,159 --> 00:10:41,200
已经与两家超大规模数据中心运营商

254
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:42,639
签署了供应协议

255
00:10:42,639 --> 00:10:45,240
股价呢飙升了近40%

256
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,000
夸张了

257
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,179
这个和昨天咱们视频里提到的那一家

258
00:10:49,179 --> 00:10:52,799
HUT的情况几乎可以说是一模一样哈

259
00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:55,000
都是同样的炒作逻辑

260
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,799
嗯就是嗯签订了某个长期租赁协议

261
00:10:58,799 --> 00:11:00,960
或者是某个供应协议

262
00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,828
股价立即就原地起飞

263
00:11:03,828 --> 00:11:06,708
尽管前景吹得天花乱坠

264
00:11:06,708 --> 00:11:08,469
但是有个点奇怪

265
00:11:08,469 --> 00:11:09,828
就是公司还重申了

266
00:11:09,828 --> 00:11:12,679
他的全年业绩遇期并没有上调哦

267
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,039
如果真的那么大的订单

268
00:11:15,039 --> 00:11:16,679
那么好的前景是吧

269
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,929
为什么不上调全年业绩指引呢

270
00:11:18,929 --> 00:11:21,009
呃但是无脑炒作的话

271
00:11:21,009 --> 00:11:22,009
不用管那么多啦

272
00:11:22,009 --> 00:11:23,149
反正干一炮就走

273
00:11:23,149 --> 00:11:25,320
谁有兴趣了解那么多啊是吧

274
00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:26,159
套友的话

275
00:11:26,159 --> 00:11:28,179
谁想知道他父母做什么的

276
00:11:28,179 --> 00:11:30,019
这这个年收入多少

277
00:11:30,019 --> 00:11:33,600
公司应该赶紧改行去做燃料电池嘛

278
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:34,860
学隔壁的那个BE

279
00:11:34,860 --> 00:11:37,679
那就等于跳上AI电力财富列车了

280
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,399
锂矿巨头美国雅宝

281
00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:42,299
股价指去年6月以来几乎每个月上涨

282
00:11:42,299 --> 00:11:44,940
之前由于欧美电动车需求下滑

283
00:11:44,940 --> 00:11:47,110
离行业呢遭遇了资本寒冬

284
00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:49,830
股价从回撤85%哇

285
00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:52,370
这跌到谷底50美元了

286
00:11:52,370 --> 00:11:54,570
现在已经回到了200美元附近

287
00:11:54,570 --> 00:11:57,179
公司一季度业绩远超市场

288
00:11:57,179 --> 00:11:59,480
与其营收增长了33%

289
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,090
实现净利润3.19亿美元

290
00:12:02,090 --> 00:12:05,769
而去年同期只有4930万美元

291
00:12:05,769 --> 00:12:06,409
数据中心

292
00:12:06,409 --> 00:12:09,889
能源需求已经成为锂矿行业的新增长了

293
00:12:09,889 --> 00:12:13,330
公司在一季度偿还了13亿美元债务

294
00:12:13,330 --> 00:12:15,370
显著降低了利息成本

295
00:12:15,370 --> 00:12:17,269
提高了财务灵活性

296
00:12:17,269 --> 00:12:20,870
一季度还产生了自由现金流约2.48亿美元

297
00:12:20,870 --> 00:12:23,529
这表明公司在利润回升的同时呢

298
00:12:23,529 --> 00:12:26,500
保持了健康的现金创造能力

299
00:12:26,500 --> 00:12:28,440
在经历了前面多年

300
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,860
供应过剩和价格低迷的至暗时刻之后啊

301
00:12:31,860 --> 00:12:35,379
离行业算是步入了新一轮景气周期

302
00:12:35,379 --> 00:12:40,039
先卖后服公司see z l1季度业绩超预期

303
00:12:40,039 --> 00:12:41,639
营收增长29%

304
00:12:41,639 --> 00:12:43,779
调整后每股收益1.43美元

305
00:12:43,779 --> 00:12:46,279
大幅高于预期的19美分

306
00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:49,100
公司还上调了2026财年指引

307
00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:51,639
股价盘出一度暴涨30%

308
00:12:51,639 --> 00:12:52,950
而盘中回落

309
00:12:52,950 --> 00:12:55,049
尾盘涨幅呢收窄了一半

310
00:12:55,049 --> 00:12:59,019
日K跳空高开后收出这么一根啊大十字新哈

311
00:12:59,019 --> 00:13:02,159
虽然股价较去年7月高点回撤了近半

312
00:13:02,159 --> 00:13:04,139
但是呢我们看年线走势

313
00:13:04,139 --> 00:13:05,860
股价连续3年上涨

314
00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:09,019
今年年初以来还落得57%的涨幅呢

315
00:13:09,019 --> 00:13:13,839
这要元甩另一家先买后付龙头CLARA1条街

316
00:13:13,839 --> 00:13:16,038
克莱纳自去年9月上市以来

317
00:13:16,038 --> 00:13:19,700
股价就开启了这个暴利级泡沫之路呀

318
00:13:19,700 --> 00:13:20,940
跌跌不休哈

319
00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:23,000
自高点回撤了约80%

320
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,059
早就已经跌破了它的发行价40美元了

321
00:13:26,059 --> 00:13:29,340
所以说欧洲公司在美股市场不受待见

322
00:13:29,340 --> 00:13:30,820
UPST的同行

323
00:13:30,820 --> 00:13:35,250
以色列AI信贷公司呃PGY股价高开

324
00:13:35,250 --> 00:13:37,269
触及半年线阻力后回落

325
00:13:37,269 --> 00:13:39,149
但是仍收涨4.5%

326
00:13:39,149 --> 00:13:42,419
二公司一季度营收3.18亿美元

327
00:13:42,419 --> 00:13:44,679
同比虽然增长了9.6%

328
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,370
但是不及预期的3.2亿美元

329
00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:49,769
每股收益73美分

330
00:13:49,769 --> 00:13:52,610
同比增长了5.8%

331
00:13:52,610 --> 00:13:55,230
大幅超过预期的20美分

332
00:13:55,230 --> 00:13:57,379
前瞻指引好坏参半

333
00:13:57,379 --> 00:14:00,779
公司预计二季度收入将会在3.45亿到

334
00:14:00,779 --> 00:14:02,179
3.65亿美元之间

335
00:14:02,179 --> 00:14:04,809
不及预期的3.675亿

336
00:14:04,809 --> 00:14:05,110
呃

337
00:14:05,110 --> 00:14:08,330
预计全年总收入将会在14亿到十

338
00:14:08,330 --> 00:14:09,629
5.8亿美元之间

339
00:14:09,629 --> 00:14:13,019
这中间只要略高于预期的14.8亿

340
00:14:13,019 --> 00:14:16,860
公司同时呢还宣布了CFO人事变动

341
00:14:16,860 --> 00:14:19,460
既然是一支以色列概念股

342
00:14:19,460 --> 00:14:24,700
那就意味着它的股价砸低拉高会非常的强烈

343
00:14:24,700 --> 00:14:26,328
属于妖股行列哈

344
00:14:26,328 --> 00:14:28,788
在美联储降息周期中呢

345
00:14:28,788 --> 00:14:32,000
这支股票预计会得到热情的炒作

346
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,639
公司基本面比那个UPT要好一些

347
00:14:35,639 --> 00:14:39,559
因为这个公司采用的是预先锁定资金的资产

348
00:14:39,559 --> 00:14:40,820
证券化模式

349
00:14:40,820 --> 00:14:42,929
2026年初至今

350
00:14:42,929 --> 00:14:46,750
他频繁发行高品级的abs债务

351
00:14:46,750 --> 00:14:48,529
资金端呢很充裕

352
00:14:48,529 --> 00:14:51,690
而且基本不占用它自身的资产负债表

353
00:14:51,690 --> 00:14:53,490
属于轻资产模式哈

354
00:14:53,490 --> 00:14:56,250
UPST历史上由于资金渠道

355
00:14:56,250 --> 00:15:00,649
就他那些银行合作伙伴们在加息周期中抽离了

356
00:15:00,649 --> 00:15:03,039
所以不得不将大量的贷款

357
00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:06,320
被迫留在UPST自己的资产负债表上

358
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,919
所以就承担了信用风险呃

359
00:15:08,919 --> 00:15:10,919
因此用PSD的基本面

360
00:15:10,919 --> 00:15:13,120
在当前的这个宏观周期下呢

361
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,940
要显著的弱于呃

362
00:15:14,940 --> 00:15:19,288
这个PGY电力股与vs st股价日内冲高回落

363
00:15:19,288 --> 00:15:22,200
从涨6%变成转跌了

364
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,139
日K收出一根带有长长上影线的光脚阴线

365
00:15:26,139 --> 00:15:27,970
日内抛压沉重哈

366
00:15:27,970 --> 00:15:29,909
公司一季度扭亏为盈

367
00:15:29,909 --> 00:15:32,559
实现净利润10.3亿美元

368
00:15:32,559 --> 00:15:36,059
一年前为净亏损2.68亿美元

369
00:15:36,059 --> 00:15:40,259
而且大幅好于市场预期的4.34亿美元

370
00:15:40,259 --> 00:15:42,519
营收56.4亿美元

371
00:15:42,519 --> 00:15:43,539
超预期哈

372
00:15:43,539 --> 00:15:45,700
同比大增43%

373
00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:48,600
美国的电力需求正创下历史新高

374
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:52,340
这促使公用事业公司加大在发电和输电

375
00:15:52,340 --> 00:15:54,220
基础设施方面的投资

376
00:15:54,220 --> 00:15:56,860
但是美国政府不让电费涨价呀

377
00:15:56,860 --> 00:15:58,279
而且现在利率高

378
00:15:58,279 --> 00:16:01,299
企业抑制这些公用事业电力股的估值

379
00:16:01,299 --> 00:16:05,019
不像那些不用靠电网的其他电力股哈

380
00:16:05,019 --> 00:16:07,029
比如涡轮机龙头机EV啦

381
00:16:07,029 --> 00:16:09,970
或者燃料电池的腰果V1啦等等

382
00:16:09,970 --> 00:16:12,980
他们就不用受这个政府的鸟企业

383
00:16:12,980 --> 00:16:14,679
不用管利率那么多哈

384
00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:17,049
只看需求强不强就行了

385
00:16:17,049 --> 00:16:21,090
所以公用事业股呢呃最近就走得不是很好

386
00:16:21,090 --> 00:16:22,889
一直承压盘后

387
00:16:22,889 --> 00:16:24,590
Conn base coo wave

388
00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:27,110
还有roket lab公布了财报

389
00:16:27,110 --> 00:16:29,129
股价呢涨跌不一啊

390
00:16:29,129 --> 00:16:30,830
咱们明天再细说那行

391
00:16:30,830 --> 00:16:32,139
咱们明天见拜拜

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