【Daniel Pronk】9年以来最便宜！科技巨头估值逻辑全拆解

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最近我经常被问到对微软股票的看法

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这是因为该股票正处于大约25%的回调行情中

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在公布最新财报后

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所以在今天的视频中

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我想分享我对微软股票的研究

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并最终回答这个问题

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该股票今天是否被低估了

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言归正传

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我们直接进入正题吧

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首先

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让我们看一下微软的最新财报

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因为正是这引发了抛售

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我们可以看到他们报告了813亿美元的营收

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同比增长17%

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或按固定汇率计算增长15%

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营业利润达到383亿美元

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同比增长21%或按固定汇率计算19%

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GAAP净利润为385亿美元

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同比增长60%

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然而按非GAAP计算

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净利润为390亿美元

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同比增长23%

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净利润为390亿美元

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同比增长23%

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同比增长2%

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GAAP每股收益为5.16美元

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再次同比增长16%

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而按非GAAP计算

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每股收益为14.14美元

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同比增长24%

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同比增长24%

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微软最新财报的亮点数据其实非常

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相当不错

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营收增长17%

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营业利润增长21% 每股收益增长24%

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我认为投资者应该关注本季度的非GAAP earnings

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因为GAAP earnings包含微软对OpenAI投资的未实现收益

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这不是经常性收益

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更像是账面收益

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换句话说

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换句话说

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公司实际营业利润本季度增长约24%

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本季度营业利润增长约24%

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而非GAAP指标正是显示这一点

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但总体来看微软本季度表现良好

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但回到截图内容

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CEO表示我们才处于AI扩散的初期阶段

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而微软已打造的AI业务规模已超过部分核心业务

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微软云业务本季度营收突破500亿美元

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反映其服务组合强劲需求

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所以微软似乎认为其AI业务仍处于初期阶段

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尽管它已经是整个业务中最大的细分领域之一

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现在切换到下一张截图

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这张图展示了微软各业务板块的增长率对比

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微软365商业云收入增长17%

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微软365消费者云收入增长2.9%

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领英收入增长11% 动态业务

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365业务收入增长19%

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智能云整体收入达329亿美元

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同比增长29%

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Azure及其他云服务收入增长39%

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今年39%的收入增长非常亮眼

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但相比上季度微软略有放缓

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我们稍后会详细讨论这一点

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但首先可以看到个人计算业务收入143亿美元

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同比下滑3%

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Windows OEM及设备增长1%

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Xbox内容与服务下滑5%

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搜索与广告收入增长约10%

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当我查看这些所有数据时

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很明显微软的增长主要来自

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云业务

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领英收入仅增长11%

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部分传统业务趋于平缓甚至下滑

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微软增长主要依赖云业务

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下一张截图展示AWS

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谷歌云和微软的年同比增长率

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这里可以看到谷歌云表现优异

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年同比增长48%，AWS也在加速

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达到24%的年同比增长

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这也是三年来的最高增速

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但观察微软365业务

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它在这里显得与众不同

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和

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它是唯一未实现收入增长加速的公司

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并且

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预计下一季度将进一步放缓

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与此同时分析师预期AWS

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的增长将持续加速

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到2026年底或达30%

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看来微软

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Azure

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是唯一预计2026年增长持续放缓的云服务商

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AWS的增长加速

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和GCP部分得益于与Anthropic及Claude的合作

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因为Claude当前表现极为强劲

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亚马逊和谷歌已绑定Anthropic

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即Claude所属公司

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然而微软选择了OpenAI

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而OpenAI近期被视为市场负担

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而并非作为一项资产

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因此微软将业务与OpenAI深度绑定的事实

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我认为

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这也是其云业务可能未加速增长的另一个原因

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随着Anthropic的快速发展显而易见

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而且

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也可能成为近期市场对微软股票看空的原因之一

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但让我们回到微软的财报分析

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从现金流表中我们可以看到，运营现金流创下了惊人表现

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本季度运营现金流接近360亿美元

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相比去年的223亿美元

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微软运营现金流同比增长60%

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所以再次

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这确实是一个惊人的季度

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然而

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微软的资本支出大幅增加，同比近翻倍

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这也是投资者本季度的主要担忧

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接下来的截图展示了微软下一季度的指引

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这里显示预计营收增长16%

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而Azure将实现37%的增长

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这标志着该业务进一步放缓

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相比此前39%的增长率

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Azure增长速率的进一步放缓

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恰逢微软资本支出激增

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同比增长100%

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因此投资者开始担忧微软的资本支出

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尤其是这些投入未能有效回报

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因为微软仍是唯一未见营收增速提升的云服务商

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而资本支出也在持续膨胀

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然而

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在财报电话会上，CFO艾米·胡德指出

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Azure的增长仍受电力供应限制

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意味着公司受限于数据中心建设和GPU部署速度

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而非客户需求不足

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管理层

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还表示高额支出将持续至2026年底

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以扩展AI基础设施并满足客户需求

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但鉴于所有因素

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资本支出增加

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预计全年运营利润率将小幅下降

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由于大规模基建投资导致折旧增加

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但总体来看，Azure仍面临产能限制

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微软实际上缺乏支撑业务需求的基础设施

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换句话说

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如果微软拥有足够基础设施

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Azure的营收增速会更高

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并可能实现加速增长

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就像谷歌云和AWS目前的情况

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简而言之

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Azure营收放缓并非客户需求不足所致

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这是由于微软在基础设施方面的不足

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要解决这个问题

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微软显然在资本支出上投入了更多资金

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但他们的资本支出成本同比翻倍

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看起来他们现在试图追赶

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赶上谷歌云和AWS

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通过大幅增加资本支出进行投资

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以满足Azure当前的需求

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我这里有一个有趣的图表

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实际上显示微软在资本支出上落后于谷歌和亚马逊

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但过去并非如此

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在2023年第二季度

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微软的资本支出与谷歌基本持平

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甚至略高一些

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但如果我们快进到现在

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我们可以看到

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微软过去12个月资本支出达830亿美元

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而亚马逊为1320亿美元，谷歌为915亿美元

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微软在资本支出上不如谷歌或亚马逊

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这也是微软更受制于产能的原因

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同时谷歌和亚马逊的云业务增速加快

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因为他们持续投入云基础设施建设

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现在

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这也说明亚马逊和谷歌的资本支出是合理的

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并已产生回报

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因为这些业务正在加速增长

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当微软回到转录内容时

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Amy Hood还表示

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正如我们讨论的几个季度以来

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需求持续超过我们的供应能力

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本季度我们上线了约1吉瓦的新容量

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但下一季度末仍将面临产能限制

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零收入增长39%

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但增长受产能限制影响

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由于AI需求依然很高

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然后

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CEO表示

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我们的增长受限于数据中心基建建设速度

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以及向各区域提供电力和计算资源

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现在想想微软的情况

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好的

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市场正在抛售他们的股票

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部分原因是Azure营收增速放缓

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但CFO和CEO指出这不是需求问题

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而是缺乏基础设施支撑

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以支持云业务的加速发展

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因此微软需要

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增加资本支出以消除这一限制

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并重新加速云业务增长

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但通过增加资本支出

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投资者也担心这可能无法盈利

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因此他们再次抛售股票

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微软目前正处于这一阶段

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他们无论怎么做都会陷入困境

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不做也会陷入困境

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如果不增加资本支出以加速云业务

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市场会将其视为看跌信号

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如果增加资本支出以加速云业务

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市场同样会对此支出表示担忧

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在我看来

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我认为微软应该采取的措施是

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对业务基本面最有利的长期选择

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大幅增加资本支出

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确保不面临产能限制

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能够执行当前业务所见的所有需求

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这是最佳方案

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因为市场无论是否花钱都会看空

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00:10:16,899 --> 00:10:18,820
无论是否使用这笔资金

219
00:10:18,820 --> 00:10:23,500
因此应投入资金确保Azure业务最大化增长

220
00:10:23,500 --> 00:10:26,139
我认为微软正在做正确的事

221
00:10:26,139 --> 00:10:30,980
我也认为亚马逊和谷歌

222
00:10:30,980 --> 00:10:33,110
云业务的增加资本支出已见效

223
00:10:33,110 --> 00:10:36,029
因为这推动了业务加速增长

224
00:10:36,029 --> 00:10:37,710
因此作为投资者

225
00:10:37,710 --> 00:10:40,940
我希望微软效仿并采取相同行动

226
00:10:40,940 --> 00:10:42,759
以便零也能加速

227
00:10:42,759 --> 00:10:44,379
回到转录内容

228
00:10:44,379 --> 00:10:49,789
他们还报告剩余履约义务同比激增110%

229
00:10:49,789 --> 00:10:51,809
但需注意四

230
00:10:51,809 --> 00:10:55,759
微软5%的RPO来自OpenAI

231
00:10:55,759 --> 00:10:59,669
这也是针对微软的看跌因素

232
00:10:59,669 --> 00:11:03,570
可见微软剩余履约义务从2025年第三季度的392亿

233
00:11:03,570 --> 00:11:08,320
增至2025年第四季度的625亿

234
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,350
截至2025年第四季度

235
00:11:10,350 --> 00:11:13,269
环比增长幅度巨大

236
00:11:13,269 --> 00:11:15,909
但市场似乎不再为此担忧

237
00:11:15,909 --> 00:11:18,620
如同2025年对Oracle的反应

238
00:11:18,620 --> 00:11:23,460
当前市场视RPO增长为无关因素

239
00:11:23,460 --> 00:11:24,120
但就我个人而言

240
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:24,860
我认为

241
00:11:24,860 --> 00:11:28,179
微软确实拥有大量非关联RPO

242
00:11:28,179 --> 00:11:30,419
这些业务不受OpenAI影响

243
00:11:30,419 --> 00:11:33,740
在我看来业务仍将稳健发展

244
00:11:33,740 --> 00:11:36,690
这种风险在我看来毫无意义

245
00:11:36,690 --> 00:11:39,159
现在让我们查看微软当前市盈率

246
00:11:39,159 --> 00:11:43,240
我喜欢使用现金流市盈率分析所有超大规模云公司

247
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,090
因为它们都在大幅投入资本支出

248
00:11:47,090 --> 00:11:52,049
现金流市盈率更能反映业务估值

249
00:11:52,049 --> 00:11:54,179
相对于其运营利润

250
00:11:54,179 --> 00:11:59,460
目前微软的现金流市盈率为18.6

251
00:11:59,460 --> 00:12:04,059
自2017年以来，其长期平均值一直保持在23.1

252
00:12:04,059 --> 00:12:06,179
中位数也维持在24

253
00:12:06,179 --> 00:12:12,220
微软股票以远低于历史平均市销比率的价格交易

254
00:12:12,220 --> 00:12:16,299
有趣的是在2022年股市回调期间

255
00:12:16,299 --> 00:12:20,289
微软的市运营现金流比降至19.5

256
00:12:20,289 --> 00:12:24,818
目前的市盈率仍低于2022年回调时水平

257
00:12:24,818 --> 00:12:28,078
微软的市运营现金流倍数也低于

258
00:12:28,078 --> 00:12:31,250
2020年危机时期的水平

259
00:12:31,250 --> 00:12:33,450
你必须追溯到

260
00:12:33,450 --> 00:12:35,330
2018年末的那次回调

261
00:12:35,330 --> 00:12:40,659
以及2019年初才能找到更低的市销倍数

262
00:12:40,659 --> 00:12:45,669
微软目前处于九年来的最低市运营现金流价

263
00:12:45,669 --> 00:12:48,210
其交易价低于2022年水平

264
00:12:48,210 --> 00:12:50,169
也低于2020年水平

265
00:12:50,169 --> 00:12:54,279
同时当前交易价远低于历史平均倍数

266
00:12:54,279 --> 00:12:56,360
我还快速做了微软的DCF分析

267
00:13:00,190 --> 00:13:03,870
我认为微软能够持续增长其运营现金流

268
00:13:03,870 --> 00:13:06,000
年增长率至少13%

269
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,279
在这一阶段结束时

270
00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:10,980
预计其市盈率将约为20倍运营现金流

271
00:13:10,980 --> 00:13:14,429
这是从当前交易水平的温和倍数扩张

272
00:13:14,429 --> 00:13:18,330
但仍远低于过去

273
00:13:18,330 --> 00:13:19,649
近九年的历史平均水平

274
00:13:19,649 --> 00:13:22,450
在此DCF模型中，股价复合年增长率

275
00:13:22,450 --> 00:13:25,399
达到15.7%

276
00:13:25,399 --> 00:13:31,210
公允价值516美元，未来股价809美元

277
00:13:31,210 --> 00:13:35,509
这相当于当前股价的大约两倍

278
00:13:35,509 --> 00:13:39,240
我认为微软可能实现年均超13%的增长

279
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:39,899
再次强调

280
00:13:39,899 --> 00:13:45,120
当前20倍的市运营现金流倍数仍低于历史水平

281
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,179
因此我认为这是对微软的保守DCF估值

282
00:13:49,179 --> 00:13:50,620
让我解释原因

283
00:13:56,100 --> 00:13:58,600
现在我们来看微软的总收入

284
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,879
及其微软云业务收入

285
00:14:00,879 --> 00:14:04,740
显然微软云收入自2020年以来以约2.6%

286
00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:07,710
年复合增长率增长

287
00:14:07,710 --> 00:14:12,399
而微软整体收入年复合增长率约为15%

288
00:14:12,399 --> 00:14:13,419
2020年时

289
00:14:13,419 --> 00:14:15,299
微软云业务占总收入的39%

290
00:14:15,299 --> 00:14:17,950
今日其云业务占比已达62%

291
00:14:17,950 --> 00:14:22,450
且仍以约2.6%年复合率增长

292
00:14:22,450 --> 00:14:24,429
微软业务正越来越聚焦云计算

293
00:14:24,429 --> 00:14:25,960
年复合增长率约2.6%

294
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:30,740
微软的业务正越来越集中于云计算

295
00:14:30,740 --> 00:14:32,820
这意味着微软总收入

296
00:14:36,269 --> 00:14:38,700
云计算业务的表现

297
00:14:38,700 --> 00:14:39,580
此外

298
00:14:39,580 --> 00:14:43,940
微软的经营现金流利润率自2015年以来持续扩大

299
00:14:43,940 --> 00:14:46,779
目前达到十年高位5%

300
00:14:46,779 --> 00:14:48,200
2.6%

301
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:49,120
在我看来

302
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:54,710
这是因为利润率极高的云业务仍在以快于整体业务的速度增长

303
00:14:54,710 --> 00:14:57,000
并占据更大营收比例

304
00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,460
由于云业务利润率更高

305
00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:02,639
这意味着微软的整体利润率也在同步扩张

306
00:15:02,639 --> 00:15:04,759
至少从经营现金流角度看

307
00:15:04,759 --> 00:15:06,100
简而言之

308
00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:10,940
如果营收增速持续加快且云业务带动利润率继续扩张

309
00:15:10,940 --> 00:15:13,539
随着其在微软整体业务中的占比提升

310
00:15:13,539 --> 00:15:17,779
我认为13%的DCF增速最终是过于悲观的

311
00:15:17,779 --> 00:15:18,779
总结一下

312
00:15:18,779 --> 00:15:24,080
微软目前的市销经营现金流比自2018年以来最低

313
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,299
远低于历史平均水平

314
00:15:26,299 --> 00:15:27,840
悲观的DCF估值

315
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:28,240
至少

316
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:29,120
在我看来

317
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:34,179
也表明股票从当前价格可能带来16%年化回报

318
00:15:34,179 --> 00:15:36,720
云业务依然表现强劲

319
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,919
且明显存在产能限制

320
00:15:38,919 --> 00:15:40,720
行业资本支出

321
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,639
我认为正在产生显著效果

322
00:15:42,639 --> 00:15:46,059
现在微软正在加大投入以追赶

323
00:15:46,059 --> 00:15:47,460
GCP和AWS

324
00:15:47,460 --> 00:15:50,720
正在履行的OpenAI剩余义务

325
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,519
在我看来这些因素无关紧要

326
00:15:52,519 --> 00:15:54,350
只是愚蠢的看空理由

327
00:15:54,350 --> 00:15:58,490
最终我认为这意味着微软当前估值被低估

328
00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:01,000
以上就是我对微软股票的看法

329
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,320
再次令人意外的是

330
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,740
我认为股票当前估值被低估

331
00:16:04,740 --> 00:16:06,919
这可能让许多听众感到意外

332
00:16:06,919 --> 00:16:11,419
因为我过去几年一直批评微软被高估

333
00:16:11,419 --> 00:16:16,179
但随着25%回调和微软基本面持续增长

334
00:16:16,179 --> 00:16:18,899
现在我认为股票被低估

335
00:16:18,899 --> 00:16:19,220
现在

336
00:16:19,220 --> 00:16:19,980
郑重声明

337
00:16:19,980 --> 00:16:23,529
我尚未在投资组合中配置微软股票

338
00:16:23,529 --> 00:16:28,840
但当前价格是我在考虑加入投资组合的标的

339
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,360
因为我认为确实被低估

340
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:37,059
我认为所有条件都指向该业务将持续加速营收增长

341
00:16:37,059 --> 00:16:40,139
且长期经营现金流将持续增长

342
00:16:40,139 --> 00:16:42,470
随着Azure加速发展

343
00:16:42,470 --> 00:16:45,830
我认为当前针对微软的所有看空理由

344
00:16:45,830 --> 00:16:47,190
都不太合理

345
00:16:47,190 --> 00:16:50,820
该业务长期基本面将持续增长

346
00:16:50,820 --> 00:16:53,039
当我使用较为悲观的参数

347
00:16:53,039 --> 00:16:55,440
至少在我看来进行DCF测算

348
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,379
我确实得到了一个表明该股票被低估的输出结果

349
00:16:58,379 --> 00:17:01,240
并且可能从此处产生跑赢市场的回报

350
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:01,879
所以再次

351
00:17:01,879 --> 00:17:03,299
这就是我对微软的看法

352
00:17:03,299 --> 00:17:06,348
也请在下方评论区告诉我你的看法

353
00:17:06,348 --> 00:17:07,509
如果你喜欢这个视频

354
00:17:07,509 --> 00:17:09,288
请记得为它点赞

355
00:17:09,288 --> 00:17:10,068
如果你是第一次来这里

356
00:17:10,068 --> 00:17:11,729
并且想看到更多类似内容

357
00:17:11,729 --> 00:17:14,739
请也考虑订阅我的频道

358
00:17:14,739 --> 00:17:16,278
非常感谢你的观看

359
00:17:16,278 --> 00:17:17,598
我真的很感激

360
00:17:17,598 --> 00:17:20,098
希望下次视频再见

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