BV1WoRCBvEnc · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,500 大家好 2 00:00:00,500 --> 00:00:02,790 欢迎来到本期深度拆解 3 00:00:02,790 --> 00:00:05,870 今天咱们不聊那些酷炫的AI应用 4 00:00:05,870 --> 00:00:08,689 而是要潜入一份来自2026年5月 5 00:00:08,689 --> 00:00:12,039 摩根士丹利的独家实地调研纪要 6 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:14,480 咱们一起揭开一个鲜为人知的秘密 7 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,620 在全球AI热潮的背后究竟是怎样 8 00:00:17,620 --> 00:00:20,100 庞大而隐秘的物理基础建设 9 00:00:20,100 --> 00:00:22,989 在为这一切提供运转的动力 10 00:00:22,989 --> 00:00:24,969 你有没有想过一个问题 11 00:00:24,969 --> 00:00:26,910 AI到底住在哪 12 00:00:26,910 --> 00:00:29,390 每天咱们用AI写文章 13 00:00:29,390 --> 00:00:31,030 画画写代码 14 00:00:31,030 --> 00:00:33,859 但它总得有个落脚的地方对吧 15 00:00:33,859 --> 00:00:34,740 其实啊 16 00:00:34,740 --> 00:00:36,259 AI的物理现实 17 00:00:36,259 --> 00:00:37,759 正在现实世界里 18 00:00:37,759 --> 00:00:41,659 引发一场堪比淘金热的土地和电力争夺战 19 00:00:41,659 --> 00:00:43,899 这可不仅仅是代码的竞争 20 00:00:43,899 --> 00:00:45,460 更是真金白银 21 00:00:45,460 --> 00:00:49,700 甚至是关乎国家地理空间资源的疯狂角逐 22 00:00:49,700 --> 00:00:52,460 咱们今天手里的这份寻宝图 23 00:00:52,460 --> 00:00:55,659 是大摩亚太区研究团队的实地走访 24 00:00:55,659 --> 00:00:59,609 心血分析师们跑遍了中国顶尖的数据中心 25 00:00:59,609 --> 00:01:00,229 发现 26 00:01:00,229 --> 00:01:05,259 目前市场上存在一种未被充分认识的乐观情绪 27 00:01:05,259 --> 00:01:07,539 这份报告就像个哪行仪 28 00:01:07,539 --> 00:01:10,498 能帮我们彻底看清究竟是谁 29 00:01:10,498 --> 00:01:15,239 在为未来的科技帝国建造最硬核的动力引擎 30 00:01:15,239 --> 00:01:17,760 咱们直接进入第一部分 31 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,799 隐秘的AI淘金热 32 00:01:19,799 --> 00:01:24,180 看看这几瓦级别的需求激增到底有多猛 33 00:01:24,180 --> 00:01:27,579 四级瓦听起来可能没什么感觉是吧 34 00:01:27,579 --> 00:01:28,620 这么说吧 35 00:01:28,620 --> 00:01:32,039 这可是核电站级别的能量输出 36 00:01:32,039 --> 00:01:34,099 原本大摩的分析师觉得 37 00:01:34,099 --> 00:01:38,358 中国整体的数据中心需求也就3.5到四几瓦 38 00:01:38,358 --> 00:01:39,349 撑死了 39 00:01:39,349 --> 00:01:40,950 结果一去线下核查 40 00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:42,069 你猜怎么着 41 00:01:42,069 --> 00:01:44,950 实际需求直接冲破了这个天花板 42 00:01:44,950 --> 00:01:46,260 简直离谱 43 00:01:46,260 --> 00:01:48,079 这种级别的耗电量 44 00:01:48,079 --> 00:01:51,969 直接把以前互联网时代的常识按在地上摩擦 45 00:01:51,969 --> 00:01:54,849 那到底是谁在疯狂吃电呢 46 00:01:54,849 --> 00:01:58,010 答案就是超大规模的云计算巨头 47 00:01:58,010 --> 00:01:59,209 报告里透露 48 00:01:59,209 --> 00:02:02,510 有三家巨头正在抛出新一轮招标 49 00:02:02,510 --> 00:02:06,579 而且人家直接就是按几瓦这个量级来谈合同的 50 00:02:06,579 --> 00:02:09,520 大城市哪有那么多店和地给他们折腾 51 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,439 所以高达70%到80的需求 52 00:02:12,439 --> 00:02:14,419 直接砸向了偏远地区 53 00:02:14,419 --> 00:02:17,879 内蒙古宁夏这两地方正在疯狂暴兵 54 00:02:17,879 --> 00:02:21,919 迅速变成中国AI算力版图上的核心大枢纽 55 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:23,699 接着咱们看第二部分 56 00:02:23,699 --> 00:02:28,419 巨头赢家通吃数据中心市场的残酷洗牌 57 00:02:28,419 --> 00:02:32,580 现在这行业里可以说是真正的冰火两重天 58 00:02:32,580 --> 00:02:37,360 你看排名前四的三方大佬简直如鱼得水 59 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,139 每年四五百兆瓦的单子随便拿 60 00:02:40,139 --> 00:02:42,409 还在西部疯狂囤资源 61 00:02:42,409 --> 00:02:43,629 但另一边呢 62 00:02:43,629 --> 00:02:46,590 中小玩家简直是水深火热 63 00:02:46,590 --> 00:02:47,889 资金链紧绷 64 00:02:47,889 --> 00:02:50,009 交付压力大得喘不过气 65 00:02:50,009 --> 00:02:51,870 有些实在拿不到项目的 66 00:02:51,870 --> 00:02:56,069 只能硬着头皮转型去碰碰算力租赁的运气了 67 00:02:56,069 --> 00:02:58,439 为什么差距会拉的这么大 68 00:02:58,439 --> 00:03:01,000 核心全在于这个指标 69 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,889 50兆瓦最低门槛搞AI大模型 70 00:03:04,889 --> 00:03:07,169 可不是弄个普通的网页服务器 71 00:03:07,169 --> 00:03:10,060 他要的是极高的群集密度 72 00:03:10,060 --> 00:03:13,849 一个单体站点起步就得50兆瓦 73 00:03:13,849 --> 00:03:16,030 这个极其严苛的门槛 74 00:03:16,030 --> 00:03:18,800 直接成了中小玩家的催命符 75 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,919 同时也成了头部巨头 76 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,030 加速整合市场的超级加速器 77 00:03:24,030 --> 00:03:26,870 这块蛋糕实在太大了 78 00:03:26,870 --> 00:03:29,069 自然少不了监管的介入 79 00:03:29,069 --> 00:03:32,500 咱们来到第三部分监管观察名单 80 00:03:32,500 --> 00:03:36,280 看看政策是怎么重塑算力供应的 81 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,199 宏观层面绝对绕不开一个词儿 82 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:41,509 那就是东数西算 83 00:03:41,509 --> 00:03:45,349 大摩报告把严格执行这项政策作为了基准假设 84 00:03:45,349 --> 00:03:46,289 意思就是说 85 00:03:46,289 --> 00:03:48,460 上面正在用强有力的手段 86 00:03:48,460 --> 00:03:52,699 把东部快要爆炸的海量计算需求均准倒向西部 87 00:03:52,699 --> 00:03:54,530 那些早就建好机房的节点 88 00:03:54,530 --> 00:03:56,289 这不仅是为了解燃眉之急 89 00:03:56,289 --> 00:03:58,210 更是在下很大的一盘棋 90 00:03:58,210 --> 00:04:01,530 要快速盘活过去几年西部建设的闲置产能 91 00:04:01,530 --> 00:04:06,069 不过眼下呢整个行业连大气儿不敢喘 92 00:04:06,069 --> 00:04:10,090 全都在等一个东西叫窗口指道 93 00:04:10,090 --> 00:04:10,949 说白了 94 00:04:10,949 --> 00:04:15,580 这就是官方给数据中心项目发的通行证包包 95 00:04:15,580 --> 00:04:17,759 预计啊未来一两个月内 96 00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:20,899 新一波的审批配额就要下发了 97 00:04:20,899 --> 00:04:22,499 这些牌照发给谁 98 00:04:22,499 --> 00:04:23,418 发在哪儿 99 00:04:23,418 --> 00:04:25,939 直接决定了以后谁能吃肉 100 00:04:25,939 --> 00:04:26,928 谁能喝汤 101 00:04:26,928 --> 00:04:31,350 这绝对是撬动整个板块走势的超级催化剂 102 00:04:31,350 --> 00:04:33,529 搞清楚了政策大环境 103 00:04:33,529 --> 00:04:36,670 咱们再来感受一下市场的真实温度 104 00:04:36,670 --> 00:04:37,750 第四部分 105 00:04:37,750 --> 00:04:39,079 租赁与涨价 106 00:04:39,079 --> 00:04:42,040 一个完全由卖方主导的狂热市场 107 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,428 大摩分析师在报告里写了一句特别扎心的话 108 00:04:46,428 --> 00:04:49,069 算力租赁是一个卖方市场 109 00:04:49,069 --> 00:04:52,959 供应链能力仍然是最大的护城河 110 00:04:52,959 --> 00:04:55,060 这话说的太实在了 111 00:04:55,060 --> 00:04:57,800 在AI算力极度短缺的当下 112 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:59,040 谁手里有机器 113 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:00,180 有牛逼的机房 114 00:05:00,180 --> 00:05:01,300 谁就是大爷 115 00:05:01,300 --> 00:05:03,430 客户根本没资格讨价还价 116 00:05:03,430 --> 00:05:06,350 只要你能把算力稳稳当当地交付出来 117 00:05:06,350 --> 00:05:09,199 定价权就死死捏在你的手里 118 00:05:09,199 --> 00:05:10,920 在这么个卖方市场里 119 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,300 卖蒜粒的可以说是爽翻了 120 00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:14,740 客户为了抢机器 121 00:05:14,740 --> 00:05:17,269 心甘情愿砸下巨额预付款 122 00:05:17,269 --> 00:05:18,930 而且为了防风险 123 00:05:18,930 --> 00:05:21,990 供应商还会逼得客户签那种覆盖设备 124 00:05:21,990 --> 00:05:24,259 整个生命周期的超长合约 125 00:05:24,259 --> 00:05:26,660 这利润空间咔咔往上涨 126 00:05:26,660 --> 00:05:27,939 更有意思的是 127 00:05:27,939 --> 00:05:30,959 对那些惹不起的超级大客户供应商 128 00:05:30,959 --> 00:05:33,120 往往不会傻乎乎的直接提价 129 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:35,240 而是变着法的优先塞给他们 130 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,168 一些高毛利的打包组合 131 00:05:37,168 --> 00:05:42,310 这种疯狂的供需不平衡肯定得反映到价格上 132 00:05:42,310 --> 00:05:44,810 涨价时间线十分清晰 133 00:05:44,810 --> 00:05:47,110 预计从第二季度开始 134 00:05:47,110 --> 00:05:50,680 云服务价格就会开启一波滚动式上涨 135 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,420 随着旧合同到期 136 00:05:52,420 --> 00:05:55,579 新合同签下这事儿会越来越明显 137 00:05:55,579 --> 00:05:59,430 重点是由于大多数合同是一年一签 138 00:05:59,430 --> 00:06:01,990 所以这波涨价带来的真金白银 139 00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:05,069 一年内就会实打实的砸进这些 140 00:06:05,069 --> 00:06:07,259 基础设施供应商的财报里 141 00:06:07,259 --> 00:06:09,459 国内市场卷成这样 142 00:06:09,459 --> 00:06:12,689 大佬们自然要把目光投向海外 143 00:06:12,689 --> 00:06:14,009 第五部分 144 00:06:14,009 --> 00:06:19,029 全球竞速追逐海外更丰厚的投资回报 145 00:06:19,029 --> 00:06:23,910 现在国内大厂的眼光啊全齐刷刷的盯上了香港 146 00:06:23,910 --> 00:06:24,629 泰国 147 00:06:24,629 --> 00:06:25,529 马来西亚 148 00:06:25,529 --> 00:06:26,699 还有印尼 149 00:06:26,699 --> 00:06:28,259 大摩调研发现 150 00:06:28,259 --> 00:06:31,470 出海建机房已经成了圈里的绝对共识 151 00:06:31,470 --> 00:06:33,970 为啥原因太真实了 152 00:06:33,970 --> 00:06:35,810 受访厂商纷纷表示 153 00:06:35,810 --> 00:06:38,288 外面的世界投资回报率更高啊 154 00:06:38,288 --> 00:06:39,228 你要知道 155 00:06:39,228 --> 00:06:42,468 想要这新时代石油的可不只是中国 156 00:06:42,468 --> 00:06:45,620 整个亚太地区都在为AI算力发狂 157 00:06:45,620 --> 00:06:49,220 不过呢出海可不是大家喊个口号就能一起冲 158 00:06:49,220 --> 00:06:49,560 线 159 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,779 里面的时间差大得惊人 160 00:06:51,779 --> 00:06:54,740 当绝大多数国内选手还在画PPT 161 00:06:54,740 --> 00:06:57,439 或者刚试探性地迈出第一步的时候 162 00:06:57,439 --> 00:07:02,399 行业老大哥万国数据也就是GD早就一骑绝尘了 163 00:07:02,399 --> 00:07:05,360 不告特意点出GDS在海外的布局 164 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,230 硬生生比同行领先了三到5年 165 00:07:08,230 --> 00:07:11,689 要知道干基建可是极度持先发优势的 166 00:07:11,689 --> 00:07:12,709 落后三到5年 167 00:07:12,709 --> 00:07:15,490 这几乎就是一道难以逾越的天堑 168 00:07:15,490 --> 00:07:20,149 好啦不知不觉咱们的深度拆解也接近尾声了 169 00:07:20,149 --> 00:07:23,819 最后我想抛给大家一个直击灵魂的问题 170 00:07:23,819 --> 00:07:28,040 当电力和偏远土地成了数字时代的硬通货 171 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:32,709 未来到底是谁在真正掌控全球AI的物理根基 172 00:07:32,709 --> 00:07:34,790 今天这份报告让我们看到 173 00:07:34,790 --> 00:07:36,620 轰轰烈烈的AI革命 174 00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:39,579 绝不仅是程序员在键盘上敲出来的 175 00:07:39,579 --> 00:07:42,459 他更是靠荒野里绵延不绝的电网 176 00:07:42,459 --> 00:07:46,339 和一座座吞噬庞大能量的钢铁堡垒堆出来的 177 00:07:46,339 --> 00:07:50,139 那么究竟谁握着我们数字时代底座的钥匙 178 00:07:50,139 --> 00:07:52,879 这个问题绝对值得咱们的每一个人 179 00:07:52,879 --> 00:07:54,060 好好琢磨琢磨 180 00:07:54,060 --> 00:07:55,399 感谢收看本期拆解 181 00:07:55,399 --> 00:07:56,879 咱们下期再见
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