瑞银-Datadog公司（DDOG.US）：财报前瞻：仍持乐观态度-260504

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欢迎来到今天的硬核解析

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今天咱们得来做一回金融侦探

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去扒一扒市场里的一个大谜团

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你看现在整个软件板块可以说是一片哀鸿遍野

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血流成河对吧

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但偏偏在这个节骨眼上

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瑞云也就是UBS

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居然还死死咬定对data dog强烈买入评级

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这背后的底气到底在哪儿呢

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咱们这就来盘一盘

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咱们今天的调查路线非常清晰

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先看看data dog是怎么跑赢大盘的

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接着揪出市场到底在恐慌什么

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然后直接去听听一线客户的大实话

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再聊聊AI到底是来砸饭碗的还是送春风的

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最后呢咱们直接看瑞银给出的最终财务结论

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第一部分

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逆势狂飙

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简直是无视市场引力

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要解开这个谜

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咱们得先去案发现场看看

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现在的企业级软件市场

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那可真是挨了重重的一记闷棍

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这组数据的反差真的是绝了

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你看今年以来

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软件板块的中位数已经暴跌了

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大概27来左右

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惨不忍睹啊

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但在这种重力加速度般往下掉的行情里

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data dog居然硬生生的涨了三拍

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大家都在往深渊里掉

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他到底是怎么做到悬浮在半空中的

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这就自然引出了咱们的第二部分

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锁定那些让市场恐慌的嫌疑人

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在弄清楚data dog凭什么这么硬气之前

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咱们得先搞懂现在资本市场到底在怕什么

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说白了投资者现在晚上睡不着觉

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翻来覆去就是愁这三件事

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第一现在的估值倍数是不是太高的离谱了

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第2AI这么猛

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会不会自动化一搞就把他们给替代了

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第三个也是最现实的大环境不好

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企业客户的it预算是不是早就干涸了

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这其中最要命的一个概念叫one p风险

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也就是第一方风险

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你试想一下

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如果像OpenAI或者ANTHROPOPIC

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这种最顶级的AI巨头

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突然一拍脑袋说算了吧

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咱们自己内部搞个可观察性工具

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不给dthe dog交保护费了哇

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如果这事发生

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那整个看涨的逻辑可就瞬间土崩瓦解了

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第三部分来自前线的最真实的反馈

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为了弄清楚这些恐慌到底是杞人忧天

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还是确有其事

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瑞银的分析师干脆直接去拷问了四家超级企业

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客户

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得出的结论可以说是非常发人深省

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咱们先听听这家大型金融科技公司怎么说

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他们的话可以说是直接把宏观经济差

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导致砍预算的恐慌锤了个粉碎

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人家非常明确的表示

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今年给data dog的预算不但没砍

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还要增加八到十二百

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完全跟着整体云预算同步走

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更有意思的是

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他们对data dog新推的AI功能

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那是赞不绝口

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直接给出了wonderful

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也就是非常美妙的超高评价

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接着看这家大型保险公司

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这也就更有意思了

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反差感拉满他们公司的整体id预算

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今年预计要缩水10percent的以上

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这很符合咱们说的宏观寒气对吧

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但是他们在data dog上的花费居然预计还要涨十

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percent到15percent

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为啥呢

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因为为了省钱

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他们把基础设施往内部迁了

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而这恰恰需要一个更硬核的内部监控系统

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所以大头砍了data dog这块反而增收了

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然后这家数字银行的反馈

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更是把客户粘性这四个字体现得淋漓尽致

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他们爆了个猛料

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他们刚刚把一套用了10年的老系统

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给连根拔起了

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目的就一个把所有的监控需求

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全盘整合到data dog这一个平台上

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你想想这种底层迁移的

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拔出萝卜带出泥的转换成本有多高

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这也说明客户一旦上了data dog的船

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就极难再下去了

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O这也就引出了咱们的第四部分

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房间里的大象AI

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这场狂飙突进的人工智能浪潮

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到底会成为终结data dog的杀手

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还是带它起飞的顺风

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咱们抛开那些情绪输出

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直接看真金白银的数据

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Data dog

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来自纯AI原生客户的营收占比

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已经从当初微不足道的2.0100分之比

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直接飙升到了12:05分的一

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这简直就是教科书级别的证明啊

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他们正在精准的捕捉AI浪潮带来的巨大红利

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而不是被浪潮给吞噬

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说到底

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这里面最核心的逻辑还是企业的算账问题

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也就是成本效应

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权衡一条路是DIY自己动手丰衣足使

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但这也就意味着

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海量的工程师精力被消耗在非核心业务上

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还得烧掉巨额的AI token成本

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而且搞个实时预警还贼费劲

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另一条路呢直接花钱买data dog的统一平台

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云原生架构直接起飞

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然后把那些极其昂贵的工程师释放出来

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去干真正能给公司赚钱的合金业务

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就像那位金融客户说的一句大实话

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自己开发这么复杂的系统

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还得搭进去那么多的人力物力

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图啥呢

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直接交年费

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买市面上最好的软件不香吗

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毕竟跑token可是要花真金白银的

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企业

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可精明着呢

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他们只想让工程师去专心做产品

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而不是从零开始去手搓一个监控仪表盘

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刚才咱们担心的那个所谓EEP风险

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在这儿基本就不攻自破了

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终于到了第五部分

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最终的财务判决再过了一遍

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所有这些前线证据

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拨开市场的层层迷雾之后

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瑞银的分析师给出了他们最后的冷酷数字

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答案揭晓

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尽管外面风声鹤厉

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整个软件板块都在恐慌性抛售

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各种唱衰的声音满天飞

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但瑞银不仅一点没退缩

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反而死死咬住了

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高达195美元的巨大目标价

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这绝对是一个极其罕见且坚定的看涨信号

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咱们总结一下整个看多的逻辑

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现在完全闭环了

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瑞银重申买入评级

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预期一季度有31%的强劲增长

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2026年利润率稳定

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而这背后最坚实的靠山

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就是那不可思议的客户粘性

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以及现在看来出人意料极低的AI颠覆风险

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在今天的解析进入尾声的时候

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我想给大家留一个非常有意思的思考题

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顺着咱们刚才的逻辑去推导

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如果AI真的让写代码变得无限容易

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未来软件的数量绝对会呈现爆炸式的几

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何级增长对吧

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那么那些用来监控

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管理和保护着海量软件系统的工具

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难道不会成为未来星球上最有价值的资产吗

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在这个遍地是黄金的时代

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最大的赢家

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或许就是那些给淘金者提供极品铲子的卖水人

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感谢大家的专注陪伴

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希望今天的逻辑盘点对你有所启发

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咱们下期硬核解析不见不散

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