BV1WoRCBvE52 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:00,760 朋友们 2 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,359 欢迎来到今天的深度拆解 3 00:00:03,359 --> 00:00:05,040 今天咱们要聊点儿 4 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,639 绝对能颠覆你认知的硬核内容 5 00:00:07,639 --> 00:00:09,320 我们要扒开表象 6 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:13,060 去看看一个正在疯狂扩张的隐藏收入流 7 00:00:13,060 --> 00:00:17,390 是怎么从根本上重写沃尔玛的财务基因的 8 00:00:17,390 --> 00:00:18,989 如果你到现在还觉得 9 00:00:18,989 --> 00:00:22,170 沃尔玛仅仅是一个卖便宜日用品的大超市 10 00:00:22,170 --> 00:00:26,300 那接下来的这些数据绝对会让你倒吸一口凉气 11 00:00:26,300 --> 00:00:26,739 好了 12 00:00:26,739 --> 00:00:27,420 废话不多说 13 00:00:27,420 --> 00:00:29,980 咱们直接过一下今天的核心路线图 14 00:00:29,980 --> 00:00:31,420 一共五个关键点 15 00:00:31,420 --> 00:00:33,988 咱们先解码什么是第二损益表 16 00:00:33,988 --> 00:00:37,429 接着直接拿他去对标一下老对手阿马逊 17 00:00:37,429 --> 00:00:40,548 然后聊聊沃尔玛怎么在利润和再投资 18 00:00:40,548 --> 00:00:41,670 之间玩平衡 19 00:00:41,670 --> 00:00:45,070 在看在华尔街的眼皮子底下到底漏算了什么 20 00:00:45,070 --> 00:00:47,170 最后把所有点串联起来 21 00:00:47,170 --> 00:00:49,850 看看沃尔玛这台可怕的市场飞轮 22 00:00:49,850 --> 00:00:51,359 是怎么转起来的 23 00:00:51,359 --> 00:00:53,920 咱们直接进入第一部分 24 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,039 解码第二损益表 25 00:00:56,039 --> 00:00:58,759 这到底是个什么神仙概念 26 00:00:58,759 --> 00:01:00,000 其实说白了 27 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,159 所谓的第二损益表根本不是什么玄学 28 00:01:03,159 --> 00:01:07,140 它指的就是沃尔玛在传统那种低买高卖的 29 00:01:07,140 --> 00:01:10,379 微利零售业务之外搞出来的全新的 30 00:01:10,379 --> 00:01:12,650 而且是高利润的赚钱渠道 31 00:01:12,650 --> 00:01:15,150 传统零售的利润薄的跟纸一样 32 00:01:15,150 --> 00:01:17,629 但这块新业务简直就是应妖机 33 00:01:17,629 --> 00:01:20,150 这才是改变游戏规则的关键 34 00:01:20,150 --> 00:01:22,849 你看他们正在搭建的这个生态圈 35 00:01:22,849 --> 00:01:24,530 主要就这五大核心 36 00:01:24,530 --> 00:01:26,790 第三方市场履约服务 37 00:01:26,790 --> 00:01:29,840 广告数据变现外加会员服务 38 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:31,579 是不是听着特别耳熟 39 00:01:31,579 --> 00:01:32,319 没错 40 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:33,599 这是一套特别轻 41 00:01:33,599 --> 00:01:36,239 自产又环环相扣的完美闭环 42 00:01:36,239 --> 00:01:37,500 把卖家拉进来 43 00:01:37,500 --> 00:01:39,180 帮他们搞定仓储发货 44 00:01:39,180 --> 00:01:40,000 卖广告位 45 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:40,640 给他们 46 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,180 顺手把庞大的消费者数据变现 47 00:01:43,180 --> 00:01:47,019 最后再用会员卡把你我这样的买家牢牢锁死 48 00:01:47,019 --> 00:01:48,509 来看这里 49 00:01:48,509 --> 00:01:50,890 这组预测数据太直观了 50 00:01:50,890 --> 00:01:53,609 研报预计只要到2030年 51 00:01:53,609 --> 00:01:56,150 这套副业的利润贡献就会直接反超 52 00:01:56,150 --> 00:01:57,379 传中的主业 53 00:01:57,379 --> 00:02:00,140 在沃尔玛预计高达537亿美元 54 00:02:00,140 --> 00:02:01,400 的总营业利润中 55 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,849 直接切走52%的蛋糕 56 00:02:03,849 --> 00:02:04,930 你能想象吗 57 00:02:04,930 --> 00:02:08,069 一家靠推着购物车大卖场旗下的百年巨头 58 00:02:08,069 --> 00:02:11,490 未来一半以上的利润根本不是靠卖货挣来的 59 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:14,949 这也就顺理成章地引出了我们的第二部分 60 00:02:14,949 --> 00:02:19,610 拿它和行业标杆亚马逊硬碰硬对标一下 61 00:02:19,610 --> 00:02:23,110 现在华尔街的分析师们天天都在挠头 62 00:02:23,110 --> 00:02:25,409 这套新业务到底能涨多大 63 00:02:25,409 --> 00:02:27,269 爆发期能持续多久 64 00:02:27,269 --> 00:02:29,408 所有人都知道沃尔玛在猛涨 65 00:02:29,408 --> 00:02:30,868 但整个投资市场 66 00:02:30,868 --> 00:02:34,129 是不是对他的天花板有点太缺乏想象力了 67 00:02:34,129 --> 00:02:37,469 你看这组数据绝对会让你眼前一亮 68 00:02:37,469 --> 00:02:38,129 注意看 69 00:02:38,129 --> 00:02:40,539 在同样的业务规模起点上 70 00:02:40,539 --> 00:02:43,639 沃尔玛第三方市场的真实增长速度 71 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,439 其实比当年的阿马逊还要快得多 72 00:02:46,439 --> 00:02:50,319 这就好比是一个自带庞大线下流量基数的巨人 73 00:02:50,319 --> 00:02:51,639 突然换上了跑鞋 74 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,919 冲进线上赛道 75 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,399 这爆发力简直不可思议 76 00:02:55,399 --> 00:02:56,818 但有意思的是 77 00:02:56,818 --> 00:02:57,838 反过来看 78 00:02:57,838 --> 00:02:59,639 沃尔玛目前的广告收入 79 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,818 却没跟上阿玛桑当年的步伐 80 00:03:01,818 --> 00:03:02,919 诶等等 81 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,340 别以为这是坏事啊 82 00:03:04,340 --> 00:03:07,860 这恰恰说明他前面还有一条巨大无比 83 00:03:07,860 --> 00:03:10,539 完全没有天花板的加速跑道 84 00:03:10,539 --> 00:03:14,120 随着沃尔玛把线上成千上万实体店的屏幕 85 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,659 和线上的媒体网络彻底打通 86 00:03:16,659 --> 00:03:20,099 这里的广告变现潜力绝对是个天文数字 87 00:03:20,099 --> 00:03:23,810 那么赚了这么多钱该怎么花呢 88 00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:26,550 九就到了我们的第三部分 89 00:03:26,550 --> 00:03:29,479 利润与再投资的权衡 90 00:03:29,479 --> 00:03:32,979 投资者现在最眼巴巴盯着的问题就是 91 00:03:32,979 --> 00:03:35,939 沃尔玛是会大方的把这些高利润 92 00:03:35,939 --> 00:03:37,300 直接当股息发了 93 00:03:37,300 --> 00:03:41,280 还是会拿这笔巨资去疯狂补贴零售商品 94 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,620 用绝对的白菜价把竞争对手按在地上 95 00:03:44,620 --> 00:03:46,360 摩擦去抢地盘儿 96 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:47,680 剧情反转了 97 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:48,340 朋友们 98 00:03:48,340 --> 00:03:49,560 沃尔玛表示 99 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,139 小孩子才做选择 100 00:03:51,139 --> 00:03:53,318 我全都要他 101 00:03:53,318 --> 00:03:56,838 这个第二损益表的现金流实在是太猛了 102 00:03:56,838 --> 00:04:00,329 多到让他可以非常凡尔赛底的双管齐下 103 00:04:00,329 --> 00:04:03,248 以便把整体利润率稳稳拉升到大概 104 00:04:03,248 --> 00:04:04,300 6.5% 105 00:04:04,300 --> 00:04:06,419 一边还能每年舒舒服服地 106 00:04:06,419 --> 00:04:09,159 掏出80到100亿美金去砸市场 107 00:04:09,159 --> 00:04:10,620 搞业务升级 108 00:04:10,620 --> 00:04:13,080 这种两头通吃的战略优势 109 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,379 对手看了估计都要绝望了 110 00:04:15,379 --> 00:04:17,379 给你看个硬核指标 111 00:04:17,379 --> 00:04:20,040 就因为这套新业务的利润垫太厚了 112 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:21,300 哪怕5年之后 113 00:04:21,300 --> 00:04:22,899 沃尔玛传统零售部门 114 00:04:22,899 --> 00:04:25,079 为了打价格战而牺牲利润率 115 00:04:25,079 --> 00:04:26,800 这种自残式的降价 116 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,860 对它整体利润底线的冲击 117 00:04:28,860 --> 00:04:31,788 也会比今天骤降整整33帕 118 00:04:31,788 --> 00:04:32,728 也就是说 119 00:04:32,728 --> 00:04:35,749 未来的沃尔玛如果发起狠来搞低价促销 120 00:04:35,749 --> 00:04:38,279 他在财务上根本不带怕的 121 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,259 接着咱们聊聊第四部分 122 00:04:40,259 --> 00:04:42,040 也是最扎心的问题 123 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,000 市场到底漏算了什么 124 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,740 为什么现在入局可能依然不晚 125 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:50,319 咱们得算算他现在的股价到底合不合理 126 00:04:50,319 --> 00:04:53,730 用金融圈常用的逆向折现现金流分析 127 00:04:53,730 --> 00:04:55,790 咱们就能像做ct扫描一样 128 00:04:55,790 --> 00:04:57,529 直接扒开它的骨架 129 00:04:57,529 --> 00:05:01,029 看看华尔街潜意识里对他长期的增长预期 130 00:05:01,029 --> 00:05:02,459 到底是个什么数字 131 00:05:02,459 --> 00:05:04,300 这结果一目了然呐 132 00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:08,298 现在的股价反映出的预期简直保守的离谱 133 00:05:08,298 --> 00:05:10,358 哪怕是在乐观情景下 134 00:05:10,358 --> 00:05:14,310 股价里隐含的长期利润率才6.1percent 135 00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:17,829 但专业分析师根据这套新业务爆发给出的预测 136 00:05:17,829 --> 00:05:20,370 潜力可是高达10.3percent 137 00:05:20,370 --> 00:05:22,529 中间这么大的一段真空地带 138 00:05:22,529 --> 00:05:24,050 对于敏锐的人来说 139 00:05:24,050 --> 00:05:26,439 这就是妥妥的估值洼地呀 140 00:05:26,439 --> 00:05:29,430 研报里的这句话可以说是一针见血了 141 00:05:29,430 --> 00:05:30,649 数据明摆着 142 00:05:30,649 --> 00:05:34,529 华尔街那帮人压根儿就没有把沃尔玛能追平 143 00:05:34,529 --> 00:05:36,800 甚至赶超阿马逊历史战绩 144 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,798 这种极具现实可能性的剧本算进现在的股价里 145 00:05:40,798 --> 00:05:43,298 他们说到底还是戴着有色眼镜 146 00:05:43,298 --> 00:05:46,918 固执地把沃尔玛当成一个传统的线下大卖场 147 00:05:46,918 --> 00:05:47,740 来看待 148 00:05:47,740 --> 00:05:51,019 最后第五部分市场飞轮效益 149 00:05:51,019 --> 00:05:53,759 看看底层机器是怎么狂飙的 150 00:05:53,759 --> 00:05:56,639 这套飞轮的底层动力简直绝了 151 00:05:56,639 --> 00:05:58,480 第三方卖家一年猛增50 152 00:05:58,480 --> 00:05:58,980 Percent 153 00:05:58,980 --> 00:06:01,939 商品种类直接干到5亿个 154 00:06:01,939 --> 00:06:03,040 更可怕的是 155 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,000 靠着全美星罗棋布的门店当微型舱 156 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:07,060 他居然能做到 157 00:06:07,060 --> 00:06:10,399 对美国95的地区实现三小时内送达 158 00:06:10,399 --> 00:06:11,459 毫无悬念 159 00:06:11,459 --> 00:06:13,240 这种变态级的送货速度 160 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,139 直接吸引了超过一半的卖家 161 00:06:15,139 --> 00:06:16,990 花钱去用他的履约服务 162 00:06:16,990 --> 00:06:18,910 这简直就是一个一旦转起来 163 00:06:18,910 --> 00:06:21,379 就根本停不下来的超级生态 164 00:06:21,379 --> 00:06:24,579 如果这套飞轮继续像现在这样 165 00:06:24,579 --> 00:06:26,250 势如破竹的转下去 166 00:06:26,250 --> 00:06:27,269 分析显示 167 00:06:27,269 --> 00:06:29,189 在最欢乐的推演下 168 00:06:29,189 --> 00:06:30,310 不出10年 169 00:06:30,310 --> 00:06:32,089 也就是到2035年 170 00:06:32,089 --> 00:06:33,629 这些所谓的副业 171 00:06:33,629 --> 00:06:36,490 新业务将会占据沃尔玛总利润的 172 00:06:36,490 --> 00:06:37,290 准备好了吗 173 00:06:37,290 --> 00:06:39,279 大约九十百分 174 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,319 这哪还是什么副业补充啊 175 00:06:41,319 --> 00:06:43,240 这简直就是脱胎换骨 176 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,319 是整个商业帝国底层代码的彻底重置 177 00:06:47,319 --> 00:06:51,810 所以这就抛给我们一个必须深思的终极问题 178 00:06:51,810 --> 00:06:55,050 看完这台利润爆表的第二损益表印钞机 179 00:06:55,050 --> 00:06:57,269 这张无敌的三小时路网 180 00:06:57,269 --> 00:07:00,709 再加上还没有被市场完全消化的估值潜力 181 00:07:00,709 --> 00:07:04,038 你真的还觉得他是个老派的线下超市吗 182 00:07:04,038 --> 00:07:06,019 还是说咱们的眼皮底下 183 00:07:06,019 --> 00:07:07,939 其实一直潜伏着一个战时 184 00:07:07,939 --> 00:07:12,449 伪装成传统大卖场的顶级科技与电商巨头 185 00:07:12,449 --> 00:07:15,910 希望今天的深度拆解能帮你打通任督二脉 186 00:07:15,910 --> 00:07:17,790 给你提供一个全新的视角 187 00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:20,000 咱们下期解析不见不散
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