BV1WiGQ6XEkr · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:05,219 大家好 2 00:00:05,219 --> 00:00:07,360 今天是5月27号星期三 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,000 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:10,400 本期内容如下 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,720 我们先看美光的分析 6 00:00:14,539 --> 00:00:15,939 那么今天我们来拆解 7 00:00:15,939 --> 00:00:18,699 美光科技暴涨背后的核心逻辑 8 00:00:18,699 --> 00:00:21,359 这不是一次简单的周期反转 9 00:00:21,359 --> 00:00:24,429 而是市场认知的范式转移 10 00:00:24,429 --> 00:00:28,289 镁光正从传统的存储周期股 11 00:00:28,289 --> 00:00:33,710 转为AI算力不可或缺的核心基础设施提供商 12 00:00:33,710 --> 00:00:34,950 关键证据是 13 00:00:34,950 --> 00:00:39,429 2026年全年HBM产能已经售罄 14 00:00:39,429 --> 00:00:41,890 而且美光打破了行业惯例 15 00:00:41,890 --> 00:00:46,488 与客户签署了长达5年的战略供货协议 16 00:00:46,488 --> 00:00:50,560 这远超竞争对手两到3年的协议期限 17 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:51,679 更重要的是 18 00:00:51,679 --> 00:00:53,600 即便产能全开 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,399 中期内也只能满足客户50% 20 00:00:56,399 --> 00:00:58,329 到66%的需求 21 00:00:58,329 --> 00:01:03,359 这种供需缺口赋予了镁光极强的定价权 22 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:04,920 反映在财务上 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,420 就是毛利率从37.9% 24 00:01:08,420 --> 00:01:10,739 飙升至74.9% 25 00:01:10,739 --> 00:01:15,939 单科HBM的利润是传统内存的十倍以上 26 00:01:17,739 --> 00:01:20,420 我们来看财务数据的具体表现 27 00:01:20,420 --> 00:01:22,500 2026财年第二季度 28 00:01:22,500 --> 00:01:26,439 美光的毛利率达到了74.9% 29 00:01:26,439 --> 00:01:29,228 而去年同期只有37.9% 30 00:01:29,228 --> 00:01:30,569 几乎翻了一倍 31 00:01:30,569 --> 00:01:31,828 更惊人的是 32 00:01:31,828 --> 00:01:34,588 公司给出的第三季度毛利率指引 33 00:01:34,588 --> 00:01:36,370 高达81% 34 00:01:36,370 --> 00:01:39,409 这在存储行业历史上都是罕见的 35 00:01:39,409 --> 00:01:41,290 这种盈利能力的质变 36 00:01:41,290 --> 00:01:44,930 核心来自HBM产品的超高溢价 37 00:01:44,930 --> 00:01:48,170 单科HBM的利润是传统DDD 38 00:01:48,170 --> 00:01:50,269 R4内存的十倍以上 39 00:01:50,269 --> 00:01:53,689 当然这种高增长也伴随着高投入 40 00:01:53,689 --> 00:01:55,969 美国2026财年的资本开支 41 00:01:55,969 --> 00:01:58,120 预计超过200亿美元 42 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:03,259 用于产能扩张和下一代HBM4技术的研发 43 00:02:03,259 --> 00:02:05,759 这种高投入高回报的模式 44 00:02:05,759 --> 00:02:10,618 正是成长股区别于传统股的典型特征 45 00:02:13,319 --> 00:02:14,939 从业务结构来看 46 00:02:14,939 --> 00:02:17,879 美光正面临一个甜蜜的烦恼 47 00:02:17,879 --> 00:02:19,979 HBM虽然利润丰厚 48 00:02:19,979 --> 00:02:23,870 但它的生产及其消耗产能 49 00:02:23,870 --> 00:02:26,009 由于裸片尺寸更大 50 00:02:26,009 --> 00:02:27,370 工艺更复杂 51 00:02:27,370 --> 00:02:29,669 生产同样数量的HPM 52 00:02:29,669 --> 00:02:32,110 要比传统DRAM多 53 00:02:32,110 --> 00:02:34,860 消耗30%以上的晶元 54 00:02:34,860 --> 00:02:37,280 这种产能挤占效应 55 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,879 导致传统DRAM的供给被收紧 56 00:02:40,879 --> 00:02:43,590 反而推高了传统存储的价格 57 00:02:43,590 --> 00:02:46,289 目前公司的战略非常明确 58 00:02:46,289 --> 00:02:52,370 将资源向HBM3E以及下一代HBM4集中 59 00:02:52,370 --> 00:02:55,870 特别是为英伟达最新的vi rubin架构 60 00:02:55,870 --> 00:02:58,019 定制的HBM4 61 00:02:58,019 --> 00:03:00,658 爬坡速度比前代快了两倍 62 00:03:00,658 --> 00:03:02,139 但挑战在于 63 00:03:02,139 --> 00:03:04,859 美国目前在HBM市场的份额 64 00:03:04,859 --> 00:03:06,419 只有约20% 65 00:03:06,419 --> 00:03:09,949 仍然落后于SK海力士和三星 66 00:03:09,949 --> 00:03:15,550 在下一代AI平台的首发供应竞争中面临压力 67 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,259 美国的战略蓝图非常清晰 68 00:03:20,259 --> 00:03:24,840 首先通过与客户签署长达5年的战略供货协议 69 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,680 公司实际上构建了一个深层的商业护城河 70 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,740 这不仅锁定了未来几年的高利润 71 00:03:31,740 --> 00:03:32,840 更重要的是 72 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:37,669 将存储行业固有的周期波动风险降到了最低 73 00:03:37,669 --> 00:03:39,810 其次在技术路线上 74 00:03:39,810 --> 00:03:46,240 镁光正全力压住HBM4和后续的HBM4E 75 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,780 这些产品专为下一代AI架构优化 76 00:03:49,780 --> 00:03:53,539 目标是在2027年AI算力再次升级时 77 00:03:53,539 --> 00:03:55,069 抢占先机 78 00:03:55,069 --> 00:03:56,949 从市场规模来看 79 00:03:56,949 --> 00:04:00,310 HBM在数据中心DRAM中的占比 80 00:04:00,310 --> 00:04:03,769 预计将从2024年的不足15% 81 00:04:03,769 --> 00:04:07,250 提升到2026年的超过30% 82 00:04:07,250 --> 00:04:09,169 美光的目标很明确 83 00:04:09,169 --> 00:04:11,610 在这个高速增长的市场中 84 00:04:11,610 --> 00:04:13,930 将份额从目前的20% 85 00:04:13,930 --> 00:04:16,439 向行业领先水平提升 86 00:04:16,439 --> 00:04:21,560 彻底完成从周期股到成长股的转型 87 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,199 2026年超过200亿美元的资本开支 88 00:04:28,199 --> 00:04:31,829 这对任何公司的现金流管理都是巨大考验 89 00:04:31,829 --> 00:04:33,410 其次是内部信号 90 00:04:33,410 --> 00:04:35,850 近期公司内部人士的减持行为 91 00:04:35,850 --> 00:04:40,879 被市场解读为对短期估值透支的谨慎态度 92 00:04:40,879 --> 00:04:45,180 第三也是最关键的是竞技术竞争 93 00:04:45,180 --> 00:04:48,399 美国目前的HBM市场份额仅20% 94 00:04:48,399 --> 00:04:52,459 在HBM4的首发供应中仍落后于SK 95 00:04:52,459 --> 00:04:54,158 海力士和三星 96 00:04:54,158 --> 00:04:56,918 能否通过技术迭代缩小差距 97 00:04:56,918 --> 00:04:58,238 还有待观察 98 00:04:58,238 --> 00:05:01,980 最后地缘政治风险和供应链硬约束 99 00:05:01,980 --> 00:05:04,420 比如洁净式资源受限 100 00:05:04,420 --> 00:05:06,779 建厂周期长达数年 101 00:05:06,779 --> 00:05:09,740 都可能制约美光的产能释放速度 102 00:05:09,740 --> 00:05:14,540 这些因素都将决定美光估值上涨的可持续性 103 00:05:16,100 --> 00:05:18,019 最后我们来看一下美光暴涨 104 00:05:18,019 --> 00:05:19,939 对整个市场的深远影响 105 00:05:19,939 --> 00:05:22,399 第一是估值体系的重构 106 00:05:22,399 --> 00:05:24,060 镁光的成功转型 107 00:05:24,060 --> 00:05:27,269 证明存储行业可以从周期股估值 108 00:05:27,269 --> 00:05:30,019 切换到AI成长股估值 109 00:05:30,019 --> 00:05:34,509 这将带动整个存储板块的估值中枢上移 110 00:05:34,509 --> 00:05:36,569 第二行业竞争加剧 111 00:05:36,569 --> 00:05:40,560 SK海力士和三星绝不会坐视美光追赶 112 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,279 必将加速HBM产能扩张和技术迭代 113 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,279 未来3年将是决定行业格局的关键窗口期 114 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,769 第三成本结构重塑 115 00:05:50,769 --> 00:05:55,350 随着HBM在AI服务器成本中的占比越来越高 116 00:05:55,350 --> 00:05:59,089 下游的云厂商将不得不重构他们的算力 117 00:05:59,089 --> 00:06:01,769 采购策略和定价模型 118 00:06:01,769 --> 00:06:02,750 总结来说 119 00:06:02,750 --> 00:06:06,889 美光的暴涨不仅是一家公司的估值重构 120 00:06:07,209 --> 00:06:09,129 更是整个AI算力 121 00:06:09,129 --> 00:06:12,769 基础设施产业链价值重估的缩影 122 00:06:13,370 --> 00:06:15,550 好我们看一下今天市场的表现 123 00:06:15,550 --> 00:06:18,470 今天纳指是维持了一个微微震荡的态势 124 00:06:18,470 --> 00:06:20,889 那主要是3万点这个关口哈 125 00:06:20,889 --> 00:06:22,240 整数关口 126 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:24,720 那么市场呢应该还是要继续涨哈 127 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,759 因为空头没有人愿意做空 128 00:06:26,759 --> 00:06:28,839 我们看到空头还是比较疲弱 129 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,300 至少目前是这样 130 00:06:30,300 --> 00:06:32,699 因此呢我们不能提前踩顶 131 00:06:32,699 --> 00:06:34,699 这是我的逻辑哈 132 00:06:34,699 --> 00:06:37,709 我们看一下日内的表现嗯 133 00:06:37,709 --> 00:06:39,869 日内表现呢稍微回踩了一下哈 134 00:06:39,869 --> 00:06:41,168 但是又有所反弹 135 00:06:41,168 --> 00:06:43,189 表明还是有人愿意做多 136 00:06:43,189 --> 00:06:47,269 但是预测上涨并不代表着不要控制风险哈 137 00:06:47,269 --> 00:06:49,970 所以多头的止损要适当的提高 138 00:06:51,660 --> 00:06:53,660 好这是纳指 139 00:06:53,660 --> 00:06:55,339 我们再看一下哈 140 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,360 唉还可以吧 141 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:58,560 也就说有可能见顶 142 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,730 当然有可能一切皆有可能嘛 143 00:07:00,730 --> 00:07:02,290 但是他是顶吗 144 00:07:02,290 --> 00:07:03,970 你不知道我也不知道 145 00:07:03,970 --> 00:07:05,470 所以不知道就不是顶 146 00:07:05,470 --> 00:07:07,490 知道了才能置顶 147 00:07:08,329 --> 00:07:10,250 好我们看一下道指也是 148 00:07:10,250 --> 00:07:12,269 那么昨天是给出了一个回调 149 00:07:12,269 --> 00:07:13,529 测试了支撑位 150 00:07:16,550 --> 00:07:19,449 哎表明多头更倾向于做多哈 151 00:07:19,449 --> 00:07:22,149 而市场没有选择砸盘 152 00:07:23,939 --> 00:07:26,500 罗素也是空头强吗不强 153 00:07:28,019 --> 00:07:30,300 我们看一下标普 154 00:07:30,949 --> 00:07:32,990 标普也是收涨的感觉 155 00:07:32,990 --> 00:07:34,470 对吧好 156 00:07:34,470 --> 00:07:36,269 我们简单看一下原油哈 157 00:07:36,269 --> 00:07:39,259 原油呢目前还是震荡区间啊 158 00:07:39,259 --> 00:07:42,100 我估计维持震荡的概率很高哈行吧 159 00:07:42,100 --> 00:07:43,399 咱们就不去猜了 160 00:07:43,399 --> 00:07:45,139 不要去交易这种标题哈 161 00:07:45,139 --> 00:07:47,230 难度极大 162 00:07:47,750 --> 00:07:50,870 好我们看下市场分布的情况啊 163 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,639 诶今天的半导体和软件基础设施是有回调 164 00:07:54,639 --> 00:07:57,000 因为我们的大盘是十字星K线 165 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,480 所以必然有领涨也有领跌的哈 166 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,279 但都是微微波动而已 167 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:04,560 我看到互联网和消费电子是微涨 168 00:08:05,089 --> 00:08:05,689 药品 169 00:08:05,689 --> 00:08:07,449 互联网零售是领涨 170 00:08:07,449 --> 00:08:10,269 半导体设备是下地 171 00:08:10,750 --> 00:08:12,389 航空航天是微涨哈 172 00:08:12,389 --> 00:08:14,970 所以今天大盘整体是十字星的话 173 00:08:14,970 --> 00:08:18,009 各个行业就是说该回调的回调 174 00:08:18,009 --> 00:08:19,855 该继续微涨的微涨 175 00:08:20,370 --> 00:08:23,300 我们看一下领涨的板块啊 176 00:08:23,300 --> 00:08:26,120 今天比较热门的还是加密矿企哈 177 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,560 这个IREN我们之前也跟进过哈 178 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,370 待会我们现在就可以看一眼嗯 179 00:08:32,370 --> 00:08:35,370 那市场呢将去尝试突破76这一带哈 180 00:08:35,370 --> 00:08:36,889 那么现在是67 181 00:08:36,889 --> 00:08:40,203 多头应该继续持仓看涨 182 00:08:41,058 --> 00:08:41,578 是吧 183 00:08:41,578 --> 00:08:43,339 但是也要以波段交易为主哈 184 00:08:43,339 --> 00:08:44,958 因为这都没准的事 185 00:08:44,958 --> 00:08:48,739 对我们不了解的标题一定以局部波段交易为主 186 00:08:49,950 --> 00:08:51,730 好我们继续回到这列表 187 00:08:51,730 --> 00:08:54,289 那么焦炭行业微涨吧 188 00:08:54,289 --> 00:08:55,889 邮轮传统股微涨 189 00:08:55,889 --> 00:08:58,279 因为今天我们的道指是领涨对吧 190 00:08:58,279 --> 00:08:59,919 也不能说领涨微微上涨嘛 191 00:08:59,919 --> 00:09:03,469 都是然后是社交媒体诶 192 00:09:03,469 --> 00:09:04,769 这个meta终于涨了哈 193 00:09:04,769 --> 00:09:07,649 那我们看一眼嗯 194 00:09:07,649 --> 00:09:09,049 我是有根据的哈 195 00:09:09,049 --> 00:09:10,049 所谓终于涨了 196 00:09:10,049 --> 00:09:11,850 就是要摆脱这个震荡区间了 197 00:09:11,850 --> 00:09:12,769 做啥呀 198 00:09:12,769 --> 00:09:14,889 做多抄底正当时嘛 199 00:09:14,889 --> 00:09:16,230 理论上是的哈 200 00:09:16,230 --> 00:09:17,710 我们能踩顶吗 201 00:09:17,710 --> 00:09:19,570 不能能踩底吗 202 00:09:19,570 --> 00:09:20,690 勉强可以哈 203 00:09:20,690 --> 00:09:22,299 因为现在是牛市 204 00:09:22,299 --> 00:09:23,580 有人说他终于涨了 205 00:09:23,580 --> 00:09:24,360 是的哈 206 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,808 我们看一下15分钟图还不错吧 207 00:09:27,808 --> 00:09:30,970 这阳线表现的嗯 208 00:09:31,570 --> 00:09:32,970 就他最慢了哈 209 00:09:32,970 --> 00:09:36,019 还有微软好 210 00:09:36,019 --> 00:09:39,080 那其他的这个室温超导这种 211 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:40,179 咱们就不看了哈 212 00:09:40,179 --> 00:09:43,639 好我们回到我们的龙头股列表 213 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,279 所以呢今天市场整体分布呢是一个呃震荡势哈 214 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,379 你看我们之前的能源股PLUG啊 215 00:09:52,379 --> 00:09:54,639 我们之前在这些区域说做多是吧 216 00:09:54,639 --> 00:09:57,259 你看他已经基本涨到这个颈线位置了 217 00:09:57,259 --> 00:09:59,179 这是一个头肩底架构 218 00:09:59,179 --> 00:10:02,179 因此呢多头呢应该继续做多哈 219 00:10:02,179 --> 00:10:04,220 同时我们把这一条上涨线啊 220 00:10:04,220 --> 00:10:05,849 上涨的趋势线画好 221 00:10:05,849 --> 00:10:08,408 当然我们也要提防它继续恢复到震荡行情 222 00:10:08,408 --> 00:10:10,068 也就是说再掉下来的可能性 223 00:10:10,068 --> 00:10:13,649 所以这条趋势线非常的重要好 224 00:10:13,649 --> 00:10:14,850 接下来突破颈线的话 225 00:10:14,850 --> 00:10:17,669 那就要走头头肩底的运动了对吧 226 00:10:17,669 --> 00:10:22,089 但应该是上去之后有可能会有些回调的动作哈 227 00:10:22,288 --> 00:10:25,168 好接下来就关注能不能站到颈线上方 228 00:10:25,168 --> 00:10:28,649 不能的话就不要恋战哈 229 00:10:29,500 --> 00:10:33,679 好额我们看一下美光哈 230 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:35,480 说镁光为什么变呢 231 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:36,700 刚才我们的分析呢 232 00:10:36,700 --> 00:10:39,600 已经把大概的逻辑给大家梳理了一下 233 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,139 大家也可以自己截图保存啊 234 00:10:42,139 --> 00:10:44,460 那么对于他的估值逻辑 235 00:10:44,460 --> 00:10:46,980 他是有了一个新的变化哈 236 00:10:46,980 --> 00:10:48,519 那么在基础面上呢 237 00:10:48,519 --> 00:10:49,980 你看今天又是收涨 238 00:10:49,980 --> 00:10:51,879 尽管收出红色的阳线啊 239 00:10:51,879 --> 00:10:53,019 收盘价比昨天高 240 00:10:53,019 --> 00:10:54,779 但它终究是阳线 241 00:10:54,779 --> 00:10:56,019 说现在拆顶吗 242 00:10:57,019 --> 00:10:57,940 不好说 243 00:10:57,940 --> 00:11:00,039 所以说拆顶是一个难活 244 00:11:00,039 --> 00:11:01,919 我们看下还在15分钟图 245 00:11:01,919 --> 00:11:03,610 你看是吧 246 00:11:03,610 --> 00:11:04,529 昨天是拉升 247 00:11:04,529 --> 00:11:08,409 今天在这里是微微的上涨嗯 248 00:11:08,409 --> 00:11:10,629 我们再看一下日线吧 249 00:11:10,870 --> 00:11:13,200 不能提前裁定哈 250 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,240 这就是煤矿把他单独拎出来 251 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,480 就是为了研究一下这个芯片的估值的变更啊 252 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,080 变化情况 253 00:11:23,220 --> 00:11:25,500 好下边我们看一下亚马逊 254 00:11:25,500 --> 00:11:26,139 亚马逊 255 00:11:26,139 --> 00:11:27,840 你看今天的阳线漂亮吧 256 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,730 我们之前说基本预期是先回踩这个支撑位是吧 257 00:11:31,730 --> 00:11:33,490 诶剧本确实是这样 258 00:11:33,490 --> 00:11:34,169 回踩了一下 259 00:11:34,169 --> 00:11:35,129 止跌了吧 260 00:11:35,129 --> 00:11:36,090 看啥呀 261 00:11:36,090 --> 00:11:38,149 看涨今天的阳气还不错啊 262 00:11:38,149 --> 00:11:39,610 比较漂亮 263 00:11:40,289 --> 00:11:42,269 我们看一下特斯拉是不是也在涨 264 00:11:42,269 --> 00:11:43,610 是的呀 265 00:11:43,610 --> 00:11:45,570 好那就不要去猜顶哈 266 00:11:45,570 --> 00:11:47,649 我们把这个局部趋势线给它画一条吧 267 00:11:48,690 --> 00:11:50,789 因为有时候他要继续震荡什么的对吧 268 00:11:50,789 --> 00:11:53,115 哎先往上走一走 269 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:55,919 好这是这几个哈 270 00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:57,679 我们好几天没看苹果了哈 271 00:11:57,679 --> 00:11:58,799 看一眼苹果 272 00:11:58,799 --> 00:12:00,000 今天还是阳线哈 273 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,230 demo是的 274 00:12:03,999 --> 00:12:05,278 我们看一下戴尔吧 275 00:12:05,278 --> 00:12:06,399 戴尔也是服务器 276 00:12:06,399 --> 00:12:08,318 你看涨了吧 277 00:12:08,318 --> 00:12:11,159 戴尔这是我们之前说的头肩大帝 278 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,840 我们的经典案例都是永远存在着哈 279 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:15,059 这些龙头股 280 00:12:15,059 --> 00:12:17,980 我们的经验就是这么一点一点积累起来的 281 00:12:17,980 --> 00:12:19,120 现在能猜顶吗 282 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,970 不能谷歌 283 00:12:21,970 --> 00:12:24,809 谷歌目前似乎是一个窄幅横盘啊 284 00:12:24,809 --> 00:12:26,940 所以多头可以在这里定一个止损点 285 00:12:26,940 --> 00:12:28,379 如果他猛烈的下跌的话 286 00:12:28,379 --> 00:12:29,700 可能踩到更深的位置 287 00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:32,320 如果他只是简单横盘就没事了 288 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,500 那么今天这波涨不低哈 289 00:12:35,019 --> 00:12:36,100 先不用管啊 290 00:12:36,100 --> 00:12:39,000 不用理睬好 291 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,940 接下来是红色区域哈 292 00:12:40,940 --> 00:12:42,980 红色区域未必意味着暴跌哈 293 00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:44,360 我们看下英伟达 294 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,679 因为大家终于也是踩到了这个位置 295 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,240 那么参考刚才亚马逊的玩法呢 296 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,480 可能接下来一到两个交易日要有反弹哈 297 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:52,600 说他不反弹的 298 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,049 那我也没办法 299 00:12:54,049 --> 00:12:55,950 它的趋势越来越平缓 300 00:12:55,950 --> 00:12:57,590 它的通道越来越宽 301 00:12:57,590 --> 00:12:59,450 但他还是牛市哈 302 00:12:59,450 --> 00:13:01,909 我们看一下15分钟图嗯 303 00:13:01,909 --> 00:13:03,169 那么接下来一到两个交易日 304 00:13:03,169 --> 00:13:04,929 看能不能有效向上突破一下 305 00:13:04,929 --> 00:13:05,690 突破谁呀 306 00:13:05,690 --> 00:13:07,850 突破这根下跌趋势线啊 307 00:13:08,210 --> 00:13:09,649 估计没有太大问题啊 308 00:13:10,649 --> 00:13:11,690 其实一切皆有可能 309 00:13:11,690 --> 00:13:14,330 这个这个估计呢就是一个不负责任啊 310 00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:17,549 我们得眼见为实好 311 00:13:17,549 --> 00:13:19,789 我们希望有像那个亚马逊那样啊 312 00:13:19,789 --> 00:13:21,350 给出这样的大阳线啊 313 00:13:21,350 --> 00:13:23,870 看能不能明天给一个 314 00:13:24,629 --> 00:13:26,110 我们看一下阿文哈 315 00:13:26,110 --> 00:13:28,879 阿文这个图呢走的还是可以的吧 316 00:13:28,879 --> 00:13:30,139 嗯继续做多 317 00:13:30,139 --> 00:13:31,580 但是趋势线画好 318 00:13:31,580 --> 00:13:33,059 他的上方套牢盘比较多 319 00:13:33,059 --> 00:13:35,460 要随时提防更深的回调 320 00:13:35,740 --> 00:13:39,110 现在回调可能这一节就本身就是回调哈 321 00:13:39,470 --> 00:13:40,990 现在空头也不是太强 322 00:13:40,990 --> 00:13:42,610 所以应该继续看涨 323 00:13:42,610 --> 00:13:44,230 甲骨文也是受益者啊 324 00:13:44,230 --> 00:13:47,149 他那个为履约合同很大的金额非常大 325 00:13:47,149 --> 00:13:48,599 几千亿是吧 326 00:13:48,599 --> 00:13:51,298 美国也是要签这种中长期合同哈 327 00:13:51,298 --> 00:13:53,599 都是好事 328 00:13:54,408 --> 00:13:55,668 我们看一下英特尔 329 00:13:55,668 --> 00:13:56,568 英特尔 330 00:13:56,568 --> 00:13:58,168 我估计估值逻辑也是 331 00:13:58,168 --> 00:14:00,678 把CPU这个事儿给他弄进来了 332 00:14:00,678 --> 00:14:02,698 所以应该问题不是太大 333 00:14:02,698 --> 00:14:04,509 看下15分钟图嗯 334 00:14:04,509 --> 00:14:06,710 更像是一个回撤止跌了对吧 335 00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:09,359 接下来稍微震荡震荡可能要继续涨 336 00:14:09,359 --> 00:14:10,359 能猜顶吗 337 00:14:10,359 --> 00:14:12,499 不能今天不能哈 338 00:14:12,499 --> 00:14:13,918 不保准过去几过 339 00:14:13,918 --> 00:14:15,678 再过几天不能对 340 00:14:15,678 --> 00:14:17,350 一天看一天 341 00:14:17,789 --> 00:14:19,269 我们看一下PENTER 342 00:14:19,269 --> 00:14:20,649 PENTER有点疲软 343 00:14:20,649 --> 00:14:23,769 这是我们一直让大家叮嘱的一个风险啊 344 00:14:23,769 --> 00:14:25,700 叮嘱的一个警惕哈 345 00:14:25,700 --> 00:14:27,779 这个警惕它暴跌的可能性啊 346 00:14:27,779 --> 00:14:29,860 因为资金轮动到那些图上来 347 00:14:29,860 --> 00:14:33,100 我们要有资金轮轮动的这种基本概念哈 348 00:14:33,100 --> 00:14:34,059 他不愿意拉涨 349 00:14:34,059 --> 00:14:36,100 是因为他估值比较高 350 00:14:36,730 --> 00:14:40,769 好我们看下AMAM似乎要有一些回调啊 351 00:14:40,769 --> 00:14:42,490 今天阴线略微大一点 352 00:14:42,490 --> 00:14:44,299 看下15分钟图啊 353 00:14:44,299 --> 00:14:45,779 大家关注这一片横盘 354 00:14:45,779 --> 00:14:47,720 往下跌的话可以适当的减持 355 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,759 最后呢欢迎大家成为我们的绿宝石会员哈 356 00:14:50,759 --> 00:14:52,019 观看更多的内容 357 00:14:52,019 --> 00:14:53,269 拓展思路 358 00:14:53,269 --> 00:14:54,720 好我们明天再见
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