【Financial Education】明天我将重仓买入！ 买什么？为什么？

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你得把我的煎饼直接翻到地上

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看看这个宝贝

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呃

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今天公开统计这里预收了九万八千美元

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大家被狠狠打了一顿

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嘿

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你知道的

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这就是我们说的股市做生意

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对吧各位

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这段视频里有很多内容要讲

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首先

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我们要谈谈恐惧与贪婪指数

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最新的AI情绪数据刚刚出炉

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我想谈谈这个

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然后接下来要讨论哪些股票

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我明天会买入

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我要大量买入

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其实明天

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所以我来谈谈

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我在做什么

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为什么这么做

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然后我们要分析Adobe财报

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我想分享一些观点

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对Adobe的看法

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我想回应这个巨无霸

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呃

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这里有关市场行情的片段，听听这些人的观点

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然后分享我的看法和观点

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还有凯西·伍德和汤姆·李

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哦天哪

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这会很有趣

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期待在视频结尾回应这个

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感谢大家一如既往的支持

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非常感谢你们的到来

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还有很多内容要讲

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我直接开始吧

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呃

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如果你们不介意的话

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点个赞吧

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图标

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那个点赞按钮

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这就是我需要的

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好的

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如果你想订阅频道

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请务必订阅

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因为未来可能看到更多我的视频

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好的

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各位

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那我们马上开始吧

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呃

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显然公众今天经历了一个糟糕的日子

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这里损失了九万八千美元

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你知道我们面对的市场是

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我们可以称之为

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这是一只袋鼠

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归根结底

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这是一个下行趋势市场

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但我要非常明确地说明

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我们并未陷入崩盘

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现在的情况是

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我们可能陷入崩盘

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如果形势急剧恶化

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所有人都恐慌起来的话

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但我们要非常清楚

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这就是我所说的小幅修正

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过去几个月发生的情况

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这并非2022年的动态

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这也不是2020年的状况

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当然更不是2008-2009年的局面

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你可能会去那里

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这始终有可能

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但目前并非如此

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这一点必须理解

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尤其是对于正在观看的观众

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如果你是投资新手的第一年

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或前两年

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这就是你所面临的

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基本上每年都会发生

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几乎每年股市都会

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在某个时间点出现小幅回调

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小幅回调

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我们可以定在5%到10%区间

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对于标普500和纳斯达克

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现在开始讨论可能每两到三年发生的大幅回调

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那时我们将看到标普500和纳斯达克下跌20%

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移动幅度

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当我们谈到30%以上的跌幅

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标普500和纳斯达克的下跌

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通常每隔

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大约五到七年的周期

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这种情况并不常见

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但确实会发生

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所以请理解

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这就是当前状况

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我们面对的是袋鼠般的市场

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恐惧与贪婪指数

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听着

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我喜欢当前的发展

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我们现在进入极端

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恐惧阶段（恐惧与贪婪指数）

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这仍然不算特别低

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我之前见过三次

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我觉得之前见过两次

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我不认为我见过一次

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极度恐惧

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但我见过三次

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我见过四次

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见过七次

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呃 极度恐惧

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所以你知道这相当低

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但我们可以更低

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如果市场出现更多恐慌

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会有更多卖空

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期权买入活动

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会有更大规模的抛售

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会让VIX指数大幅上升

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恐惧贪婪指数可能飙升

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这不是我最关注的指标

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判断是否该买入股票

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更好的指标

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在我看来VIX超过三十

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非常好

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呃 VIX超过四十

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VIX超过五十

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满仓买入

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清仓卖出

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总之 我喜欢这个

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但我更喜欢VIX本身

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更适合判断

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是否该减少股票仓位

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新的人工智能投资者情绪数据出炉

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这是个人对市场未来六个月的看法

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呃

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降至三点

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百分之一

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刚过三点

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百分之二的人看好未来六个月市场

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同时升至四六

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百分之四的人看空未来六个月市场

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所以你知道

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这总是好的

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当接近五十个百分点时需关注反向指标

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你知道的

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投资者对未来六个月市场感到尴尬

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这对你们来说是好消息

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总体而言

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你

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这意味着已有大量恐慌情绪

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如果下周出现四十多或五十多的数字

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并持续几周

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这实际上真是非常好的消息

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如果你在考虑

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你知道的

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购买股票

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利用市场回调

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嗯

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你知道的

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最终在另一边坚持到底

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好的

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好的

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现在我们来聊聊一些股票

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我明天会考虑买入

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其中有几只

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呃

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我将会买入

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我明天会在公开账户买入

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我明天会在Patreon投资组合买入

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我明天几乎会在每个私人投资组合买入

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我也会在明天操作

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包括一些大额买入

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好的

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有些股票确实立刻想到

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一上来我就想到

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我必须买入一些elf on a shelf

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Elf

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你知道的

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今天这里交易价72美元

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这很划算

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呃

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嗯Elf

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Elf股票过去一年非常疯狂

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我说

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你知道的

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这只股票去年解放日附近一度低至

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约49美元

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随后一路上涨至接近150美元

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每股

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这里9月涨至146美元

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你知道的

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然后11月再次下跌

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约69美元

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今天这里72美元

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中间波动很大

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然后

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对于像我这样的投资者来说

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Elf是绝佳买入时机

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E o

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我感到惊讶

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你知道的

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Elf遭受了如此多的损失

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这支股票看起来像是

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你知道基本上突破了一百

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再也没有回来

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但自从我们经历了所有市场动荡后

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这只股票回调了

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你知道和整个市场一起下跌了

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所以在八十年代

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我觉得这是钢铁交易

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就像这可能是最好的事

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呃

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各位投资者

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这只股票在解放日创了新低

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就像elf

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大约四十九美元

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所以要记住这一点

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但没错

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El 我的意思是

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你知道的

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如果还没入场的投资者

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你

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你应该很幸运它又回到了一百以下

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同样适用于elf

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同样适用于elf

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这两只股票

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就像

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你知道的

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如果不是现在发生这些事

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这些股票不会再次跌破一百

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但最近市场如此疲软

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它们都跌破了一百且大幅低于一百

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不像

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它们现在在九十九左右

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明显大幅低于一百

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我仍在观察分析情况

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芝士蛋糕工厂

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是的

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今天大幅抛售

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这是个好买入机会

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但明天不会买入

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因为我持有太多蛋糕股

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但谁说得准呢

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我可能正确

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沐浴与身体护理

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我真的想建仓

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但我觉得要等到四月

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符合我标准的股票

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等到四月是沐浴与身体护理

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RH和惠而浦

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这三只股票

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我真的想等到四月再建仓

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我只是想完成一些现有持仓的建仓

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然后我才会关注新股票

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比如宝洁和丝塔芙

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我们这个年龄段

255
00:07:03,959 --> 00:07:04,658
惠而浦

256
00:07:04,658 --> 00:07:05,678
这类股票

257
00:07:05,678 --> 00:07:07,800
我还有更多股份要买

258
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,800
我想在我的投资组合中增持这些现有持仓

259
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:11,860
比如艾尔芙

260
00:07:11,860 --> 00:07:13,120
比如欧莱雅

261
00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,278
对的，所以我...

262
00:07:16,278 --> 00:07:19,360
这个已经跌到二十美元以下

263
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:20,660
这在过去不会发生

264
00:07:20,660 --> 00:07:22,399
最近市场没有明显弱势

265
00:07:22,399 --> 00:07:22,879
没错

266
00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:24,829
这个涨到了三十二美元

267
00:07:24,829 --> 00:07:26,189
并且持续上涨

268
00:07:26,189 --> 00:07:27,470
这简直难以置信

269
00:07:27,470 --> 00:07:30,870
你知道这个在解放日附近创了新低

270
00:07:30,870 --> 00:07:32,889
股价一度跌破十美元

271
00:07:32,889 --> 00:07:34,930
随后飙升至三十二美元

272
00:07:34,930 --> 00:07:37,100
现在大幅回调至十七美元

273
00:07:37,100 --> 00:07:39,060
作为长期投资者

274
00:07:39,060 --> 00:07:40,459
可能尚未建仓的人

275
00:07:40,459 --> 00:07:41,860
但到目前为止

276
00:07:41,860 --> 00:07:42,860
你需要只是说

277
00:07:42,860 --> 00:07:43,399
谢谢

278
00:07:43,399 --> 00:07:45,949
因为如果不是这些波动

279
00:07:45,949 --> 00:07:46,529
现在

280
00:07:46,529 --> 00:07:48,550
你不会以十七美元买到股票

281
00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:50,470
不符合公司增长速度

282
00:07:50,470 --> 00:07:51,310
它们的表现令人惊叹

283
00:07:51,310 --> 00:07:52,149
 Celsius

284
00:07:52,149 --> 00:07:53,250
同样的情况

285
00:07:53,250 --> 00:07:54,170
Celsius 是其中之一

286
00:07:54,170 --> 00:07:55,889
我真想明天买入Celsius

287
00:07:55,889 --> 00:07:58,350
所以目前为止我们有Celsius

288
00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:01,329
所以欧莱雅和艾尔芙

289
00:08:01,329 --> 00:08:02,548
主要买入目标

290
00:08:02,548 --> 00:08:03,588
很可能买艾尔芙

291
00:08:03,588 --> 00:08:05,728
Sofi和Celsius 对我来说

292
00:08:05,728 --> 00:08:06,209
Hood

293
00:08:06,209 --> 00:08:07,300
我正在关注

294
00:08:07,300 --> 00:08:07,980
这就是那种

295
00:08:07,980 --> 00:08:09,560
如果最终买入

296
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,240
要等到第二季度

297
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:12,879
第二季度从四月开始

298
00:08:12,879 --> 00:08:15,180
这是我正在观察的标的

299
00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:15,899
说实话

300
00:08:15,899 --> 00:08:18,009
我也可以明天买入这个

301
00:08:18,009 --> 00:08:22,470
在明天的购买优先级列表中，这并不靠前

302
00:08:22,470 --> 00:08:24,290
但我真的很想听听真实意见

303
00:08:24,290 --> 00:08:25,370
为什么它仍然低于三美元

304
00:08:25,370 --> 00:08:26,769
这依然是两美元装的普通酒

305
00:08:26,769 --> 00:08:29,189
所以耐克NK

306
00:08:29,189 --> 00:08:30,430
天啊

307
00:08:30,430 --> 00:08:32,570
我们需要对耐克进行干预吗

308
00:08:32,570 --> 00:08:33,990
这只股票简直

309
00:08:33,990 --> 00:08:36,250
现在走势极其疲软

310
00:08:36,250 --> 00:08:38,230
这又是我之前看涨的品种之一

311
00:08:38,230 --> 00:08:39,629
当时看起来不错

312
00:08:39,629 --> 00:08:41,789
然后市场突然转弱

313
00:08:41,789 --> 00:08:43,870
再次暴跌

314
00:08:43,870 --> 00:08:45,190
跌至五美元四

315
00:08:45,190 --> 00:08:46,480
我说

316
00:08:46,799 --> 00:08:48,139
这只就是钢铁股

317
00:08:48,139 --> 00:08:49,200
我实在不知道该说什么

318
00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,279
作为长期投资者

319
00:08:50,279 --> 00:08:51,580
有些股票你必须持有

320
00:08:51,580 --> 00:08:52,919
这纯粹是钢铁股

321
00:08:52,919 --> 00:08:53,759
当我看耐克时

322
00:08:53,759 --> 00:08:55,220
就像这种交易

323
00:08:55,220 --> 00:08:57,419
它长期严重失宠

324
00:08:57,419 --> 00:09:01,600
但最终公司会公布财报

325
00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,100
我认为耐克未来几年表现会很出色

326
00:09:04,100 --> 00:09:07,450
这将是PayPal44

327
00:09:07,450 --> 00:09:07,769
是的

328
00:09:07,769 --> 00:09:08,389
值得买入

329
00:09:08,389 --> 00:09:13,000
但最终结果如何呢

330
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:13,320
我

331
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,000
我通常不看好看涨期权

332
00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,990
但不得不考虑是否适合PayPal

333
00:09:19,149 --> 00:09:19,730
你知道的

334
00:09:19,730 --> 00:09:23,730
假设被收购后股价大幅上涨

335
00:09:23,730 --> 00:09:25,350
潜在收购可能

336
00:09:25,350 --> 00:09:26,610
但风险是

337
00:09:26,610 --> 00:09:27,809
收购从未发生

338
00:09:27,809 --> 00:09:29,070
股价持续低迷

339
00:09:29,070 --> 00:09:30,120
资金

340
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:31,480
这存在一定风险

341
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,919
但我在想该死的看涨期权

342
00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:36,100
看涨期权价值已大幅上涨

343
00:09:36,100 --> 00:09:37,679
自从收购传闻开始后

344
00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:38,759
需记住这一点

345
00:09:38,759 --> 00:09:40,269
如果我要买入看涨期权

346
00:09:40,269 --> 00:09:42,549
可能选择2026年1月到期

347
00:09:42,549 --> 00:09:45,429
以防协议到第三季度才宣布

348
00:09:45,429 --> 00:09:46,090
第四季度

349
00:09:46,090 --> 00:09:47,639
这样就覆盖了

350
00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,340
梅塔一直是买入选择

351
00:09:50,340 --> 00:09:51,460
除了亚马逊

352
00:09:51,460 --> 00:09:52,039
就在那里

353
00:09:52,039 --> 00:09:52,919
这些股票不受青睐

354
00:09:52,919 --> 00:09:53,919
我多次提到过

355
00:09:53,919 --> 00:09:57,250
我认为昨晚在主频道讨论过它们

356
00:09:57,250 --> 00:09:59,330
我现在对服务现在很满意

357
00:09:59,330 --> 00:10:00,850
所以

358
00:10:03,759 --> 00:10:05,639
我可能获得更多服务现在

359
00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:07,100
我可能多一点

360
00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:07,679
呃

361
00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,419
惠而浦提到那个Fubo

362
00:10:09,419 --> 00:10:10,159
是的

363
00:10:10,159 --> 00:10:11,080
一美元

364
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:11,879
好的

365
00:10:11,879 --> 00:10:12,639
亚马逊

366
00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:15,820
马上会讨论Adobe

367
00:10:15,820 --> 00:10:16,700
美国运通

368
00:10:16,700 --> 00:10:17,379
是的

369
00:10:17,379 --> 00:10:18,120
是的

370
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,620
给我所有美国运通股份，维持在三百美元附近

371
00:10:21,620 --> 00:10:22,759
尤其是低于三百美元

372
00:10:22,759 --> 00:10:24,690
绝对CRM

373
00:10:24,690 --> 00:10:25,970
我现在持有CRM

374
00:10:25,970 --> 00:10:26,730
在此时此刻

375
00:10:26,730 --> 00:10:28,590
我的仓位已建好

376
00:10:28,590 --> 00:10:29,610
我感觉很安心

377
00:10:29,610 --> 00:10:32,870
关于Adobe的持仓情况

378
00:10:32,870 --> 00:10:34,460
Adobe财报已公布

379
00:10:34,460 --> 00:10:34,940
呃

380
00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:35,139
是的

381
00:10:35,139 --> 00:10:35,600
猜怎么着

382
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:36,639
世界并未终结

383
00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:37,179
哦

384
00:10:37,179 --> 00:10:37,580
哦

385
00:10:37,580 --> 00:10:37,879
是的

386
00:10:37,879 --> 00:10:38,379
Adobe

387
00:10:38,379 --> 00:10:38,820
一切正常

388
00:10:38,820 --> 00:10:41,940
财报评级B+

389
00:10:41,940 --> 00:10:43,360
确实有亮点

390
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,120
但也存在问题

391
00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,899
Adobe营收增长12%

392
00:10:47,899 --> 00:10:49,629
成本强劲

393
00:10:49,629 --> 00:10:51,590
总成本仅增7%

394
00:10:51,590 --> 00:10:54,610
毛利率升至13%

395
00:10:54,610 --> 00:10:56,029
研发费用增8%

396
00:10:56,029 --> 00:10:56,859
表现不错

397
00:10:56,859 --> 00:10:59,339
销售与市场费用增14%

398
00:10:59,339 --> 00:10:59,818
不太理想

399
00:10:59,818 --> 00:11:02,259
不希望增速快于营收

400
00:11:02,259 --> 00:11:05,279
GA费用在第二季度飙升至26%

401
00:11:05,279 --> 00:11:08,620
我们最近看到许多公司遭受了重大打击

402
00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:09,539
你知道的

403
00:11:09,539 --> 00:11:09,840
具体来说

404
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,759
上个季度增长了26%

405
00:11:12,759 --> 00:11:14,840
而营收增长率只有12%

406
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,039
总运营费用约13%

407
00:11:17,039 --> 00:11:20,279
我们不希望运营费用增速快于营收

408
00:11:20,279 --> 00:11:23,669
这就是为什么我用红色标出运营利润增长了12%

409
00:11:23,669 --> 00:11:24,549
这是一个不错的数字

410
00:11:24,549 --> 00:11:26,669
我这里用了蓝色和绿色

411
00:11:26,669 --> 00:11:28,210
因为这个数字非常出色

412
00:11:28,210 --> 00:11:33,120
但我们更希望运营利润增速快于营收

413
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:34,899
如果营收增长12%

414
00:11:34,899 --> 00:11:37,679
你希望运营利润增长14到16%

415
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,080
18到20%左右

416
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:40,399
对吧

417
00:11:40,399 --> 00:11:42,159
但他们有几个项目

418
00:11:42,159 --> 00:11:45,139
需要在未来一段时间内降温

419
00:11:45,139 --> 00:11:46,860
他们在所得税方面遭受重创

420
00:11:46,860 --> 00:11:47,600
这里他们出现了一个

421
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,220
同比增长44%

422
00:11:50,220 --> 00:11:51,340
受到所得税的影响

423
00:11:51,340 --> 00:11:55,970
许多公司都遇到了奇怪的税务打击

424
00:11:55,970 --> 00:11:56,529
在年底时

425
00:11:56,529 --> 00:11:58,409
我想部分原因与重大法案有关

426
00:11:58,409 --> 00:11:59,929
以及相关的税务政策变化

427
00:11:59,929 --> 00:12:01,440
他们遭受了巨大损失

428
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,490
净利润同比仅增长4%

429
00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:06,610
但大部分原因在于

430
00:12:06,610 --> 00:12:09,230
所得税同比激增4%

431
00:12:09,230 --> 00:12:09,960
没错

432
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,159
最疯狂的是摊薄每股收益

433
00:12:12,159 --> 00:12:13,879
仍达11%

434
00:12:13,879 --> 00:12:16,559
即使面临巨额税负

435
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,100
这让人不禁思考

436
00:12:18,100 --> 00:12:19,700
如果没有那次巨额税负

437
00:12:19,700 --> 00:12:22,860
摊薄每股收益可能轻松增长15-20%

438
00:12:22,860 --> 00:12:25,299
没错所以我给了B+

439
00:12:25,299 --> 00:12:28,330
这是份扎实的利润表

440
00:12:28,330 --> 00:12:29,549
但还不够出色

441
00:12:29,549 --> 00:12:31,500
如果这些项目能降温

442
00:12:31,500 --> 00:12:33,340
这份利润表会非常出色

443
00:12:33,340 --> 00:12:34,480
我可以给A级

444
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,799
甚至A+级

445
00:12:36,799 --> 00:12:38,779
但由于这些项目偏高

446
00:12:38,779 --> 00:12:39,519
最终得了B+

447
00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:40,070
所以

448
00:12:40,070 --> 00:12:41,529
这就是Adobe的情况

449
00:12:41,529 --> 00:12:42,730
关于Adobe

450
00:12:42,730 --> 00:12:44,389
我必须指出一个重要问题

451
00:12:44,389 --> 00:12:45,490
没有人理解这一点

452
00:12:45,490 --> 00:12:46,269
你知道的内容

453
00:12:46,269 --> 00:12:47,590
现在看着这些内容，就能理解我们

454
00:12:47,590 --> 00:12:47,809
好的

455
00:12:47,809 --> 00:12:50,840
看看他们最近季度的营收增长

456
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,000
增长了12%

457
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:52,360
好的

458
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:53,570
这非常重要

459
00:12:53,570 --> 00:12:56,870
因为大家都在担心Adobe是否会被颠覆

460
00:12:56,870 --> 00:12:57,850
他们是否正在被颠覆

461
00:12:57,850 --> 00:12:59,889
过去几年推出了所有这些AI工具

462
00:12:59,889 --> 00:13:00,129
好的

463
00:13:00,129 --> 00:13:00,889
看看这个

464
00:13:00,889 --> 00:13:04,769
之前预计他们增长10%

465
00:13:04,769 --> 00:13:05,730
实际增长了12%

466
00:13:05,730 --> 00:13:07,289
上季度增长10%

467
00:13:07,289 --> 00:13:08,929
10% 10%

468
00:13:08,929 --> 00:13:10,190
我们看的是年同比增长率

469
00:13:10,190 --> 00:13:10,789
顺便说一句

470
00:13:10,789 --> 00:13:13,059
11% 10%

471
00:13:13,059 --> 00:13:14,220
10%

472
00:13:14,220 --> 00:13:15,460
11%

473
00:13:15,460 --> 00:13:16,849
11%

474
00:13:16,849 --> 00:13:18,089
10%

475
00:13:18,089 --> 00:13:20,440
10%和9.

476
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:21,019
2%

477
00:13:21,019 --> 00:13:22,799
他们的增速在加快

478
00:13:22,799 --> 00:13:23,620
女士们先生们

479
00:13:23,620 --> 00:13:25,860
Adobe的营收增长率在加速

480
00:13:25,860 --> 00:13:27,159
在Adobe这里

481
00:13:27,159 --> 00:13:30,129
关于这些担忧

482
00:13:30,129 --> 00:13:33,429
哦Adobe完了还是Adobe要死了

483
00:13:33,830 --> 00:13:38,039
当营收增速在加快时如何证明这一点

484
00:13:38,039 --> 00:13:39,779
如果你想辩论

485
00:13:39,779 --> 00:13:41,120
他们的利润率会受影响

486
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,279
或短期内过度支出

487
00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:44,019
或类似的问题

488
00:13:44,019 --> 00:13:45,440
可以提出这些论点

489
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:46,940
这些辩论是合理的

490
00:13:46,940 --> 00:13:49,909
但当公司市值达到

491
00:13:49,909 --> 00:13:50,970
Adobe的股价处于

492
00:13:50,970 --> 00:13:53,850
对了看Adobe的股价

493
00:13:53,850 --> 00:13:55,309
就估值而言

494
00:13:55,309 --> 00:13:56,669
这将非常惊人

495
00:13:56,669 --> 00:13:58,450
记住如果明天股价下跌

496
00:13:58,450 --> 00:13:58,950
对

497
00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:00,809
CEO离开公司担任CEO

498
00:14:00,809 --> 00:14:01,909
我相信已有十八年

499
00:14:01,909 --> 00:14:02,590
所以他

500
00:14:02,590 --> 00:14:02,990
呃

501
00:14:02,990 --> 00:14:04,009
我觉得大概要

502
00:14:04,009 --> 00:14:04,669
有点像

503
00:14:04,669 --> 00:14:05,879
呃

504
00:14:05,879 --> 00:14:07,539
我们叫它和平道别吧

505
00:14:07,539 --> 00:14:09,139
他应该还会继续参与公司事务

506
00:14:09,139 --> 00:14:12,360
但看起来他已准备好至少半退休

507
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,698
对了，Adobe的十一倍市盈率，快点快点

508
00:14:15,698 --> 00:14:18,979
Adobe公司四十一倍市盈率，增长加速

509
00:14:18,979 --> 00:14:20,220
你知道的

510
00:14:20,500 --> 00:14:21,519
我觉得值得买入

511
00:14:21,519 --> 00:14:22,940
我可能明天就买些股份

512
00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:23,639
咱们拭目以待

513
00:14:23,639 --> 00:14:24,559
咱们拭目以待好吧

514
00:14:24,559 --> 00:14:25,440
我们聊聊市场

515
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:26,559
然后再说汤米

516
00:14:26,559 --> 00:14:30,240
这过山车般的旅程我们之前一直在经历

517
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,830
今天主要的置顶评论是

518
00:14:32,830 --> 00:14:34,629
如果你想申请加入我的私有股票群组

519
00:14:34,629 --> 00:14:36,649
获取所有我的高级课程

520
00:14:36,649 --> 00:14:38,210
进入我的私有Discord

521
00:14:38,210 --> 00:14:40,559
获得独家周视频的聊天权限

522
00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:41,639
在私有群组内

523
00:14:41,639 --> 00:14:43,039
获取数千只股票

524
00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:43,539
点com

525
00:14:43,539 --> 00:14:44,340
我的高级软件

526
00:14:44,340 --> 00:14:46,360
日常使用的工具

527
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:47,779
非常深入细致

528
00:14:47,779 --> 00:14:49,779
我们正在推向更高层次

529
00:14:49,779 --> 00:14:51,240
你可以运行预测

530
00:14:51,250 --> 00:14:52,759
中期预测

531
00:14:52,759 --> 00:14:54,700
你可以运行基准情景

532
00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:57,149
熊市和牛市情景

533
00:14:57,149 --> 00:14:59,549
还有我们的高级预测

534
00:14:59,549 --> 00:15:01,730
如果你想全力出击

535
00:15:01,730 --> 00:15:03,769
可以预测到2030年

536
00:15:03,769 --> 00:15:06,658
这里还有无数项目

537
00:15:06,658 --> 00:15:07,219
嗯

538
00:15:07,219 --> 00:15:08,698
我们有精美的图表

539
00:15:08,698 --> 00:15:13,200
展示对比功能，可对比三只股票

540
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:14,519
所有不同指标

541
00:15:14,519 --> 00:15:15,919
全部排列整齐啊

542
00:15:15,919 --> 00:15:16,519
太漂亮了

543
00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:17,120
总之

544
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,559
这就是今天的置顶评论

545
00:15:19,559 --> 00:15:22,450
哦还要收听财报电话会议

546
00:15:22,450 --> 00:15:24,769
看看这个并获取AI转录

547
00:15:24,769 --> 00:15:26,440
天啊

548
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,559
我们正在推向千倍更高层次

549
00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:29,399
女士们先生们

550
00:15:29,399 --> 00:15:32,279
这就是加入我们的置顶申请

551
00:15:32,279 --> 00:15:34,340
享受六位数、七位数和八位数的会员

552
00:15:34,340 --> 00:15:35,919
过去十天的大部分时间里

553
00:15:35,919 --> 00:15:38,779
不幸的是我们都变成了石油交易员

554
00:15:38,779 --> 00:15:42,309
问题是现在的专业石油交易者

555
00:15:42,309 --> 00:15:44,909
甚至对自己依赖的分析不再有信心

556
00:15:44,909 --> 00:15:49,899
过去基于市场情绪和持仓的判断已导致这种脱节

557
00:15:49,899 --> 00:15:54,990
现在一切都围绕一场极其复杂激烈的军事行动

558
00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:57,309
我们看到大量头条新闻

559
00:15:57,309 --> 00:16:02,279
这对石油交易行业意味着参与度下降

560
00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:03,700
交易量也在减少

561
00:16:03,700 --> 00:16:07,279
如果看2月底的原油现货日均成交量

562
00:16:07,279 --> 00:16:11,919
上周接近周末时为每天三万手合约

563
00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:14,359
今日已升至一百万手合约

564
00:16:14,359 --> 00:16:16,759
周日夜间涨至119美元

565
00:16:16,759 --> 00:16:19,549
此后每天成交量都在下降

566
00:16:19,549 --> 00:16:21,870
这正是波动剧烈的环境

567
00:16:21,870 --> 00:16:24,149
不幸的是我们可能继续下跌

568
00:16:24,149 --> 00:16:24,450
是的

569
00:16:24,450 --> 00:16:27,090
但结构性上我们仍处于市场中

570
00:16:27,090 --> 00:16:31,149
目前仍位于200日均线1.5%上方

571
00:16:31,149 --> 00:16:33,330
现在少即是多

572
00:16:33,330 --> 00:16:36,360
这是一个需要退后观察的时刻

573
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,440
观察环境让局势自然发展

574
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,000
牛市可能迅速结束

575
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,330
如果形势进一步恶化

576
00:16:45,330 --> 00:16:45,929
你知道的

577
00:16:45,929 --> 00:16:47,409
有人认为已经进入下行

578
00:16:47,409 --> 00:16:49,509
从石油和能源角度看

579
00:16:49,509 --> 00:16:51,899
各位听我说

580
00:16:51,899 --> 00:16:54,409
我需要稍作澄清

581
00:16:54,409 --> 00:16:58,649
我不认为当前是牛市

582
00:16:58,649 --> 00:17:01,629
这很客观

583
00:17:01,629 --> 00:17:03,649
你看这里

584
00:17:03,649 --> 00:17:07,759
我们早在12月就见到了纳斯达克峰值

585
00:17:07,759 --> 00:17:09,900
现在已是3月深陷其中

586
00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:12,589
12月仿佛就在昨天

587
00:17:12,589 --> 00:17:15,349
纳斯达克从历史高点下跌7%

588
00:17:15,349 --> 00:17:18,210
12月创下的纪录再次被跌破

589
00:17:18,210 --> 00:17:18,769
没错

590
00:17:18,769 --> 00:17:20,369
这已不是牛市的感觉

591
00:17:20,369 --> 00:17:21,789
此刻确实如此

592
00:17:21,789 --> 00:17:25,049
感觉像下跌的袋鼠市场

593
00:17:25,049 --> 00:17:28,549
这就是当前状态

594
00:17:28,549 --> 00:17:29,869
这就是我们现在的处境

595
00:17:29,869 --> 00:17:31,450
可能重回牛市

596
00:17:31,450 --> 00:17:33,630
也可能进入熊市

597
00:17:33,630 --> 00:17:35,460
必须明确说明

598
00:17:35,460 --> 00:17:37,259
需要大幅波动

599
00:17:37,259 --> 00:17:39,200
我不认为会再次进入牛市

600
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:39,859
除非突破新高

601
00:17:39,859 --> 00:17:41,700
纳斯达克指数创历史新高

602
00:17:41,700 --> 00:17:42,920
所以直到发生这种情况

603
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,680
我不能说我们处于牛市

604
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,380
也不能说我们处于熊市

605
00:17:48,380 --> 00:17:50,929
因为下跌了7%

606
00:17:50,929 --> 00:17:52,209
纳斯达克指数创历史新高

607
00:17:52,209 --> 00:17:53,299
没有出现异常情况

608
00:17:53,299 --> 00:17:54,839
现在开始讨论10%

609
00:17:54,839 --> 00:17:55,119
好的

610
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,099
现在变得有趣了

611
00:17:56,099 --> 00:17:57,480
现在15%到20%

612
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:58,650
我们正在讨论

613
00:17:58,650 --> 00:17:59,049
20%

614
00:17:59,049 --> 00:17:59,690
加上是的

615
00:17:59,690 --> 00:18:01,869
此时已进入全面熊市

616
00:18:01,869 --> 00:18:03,618
所以是的

617
00:18:03,618 --> 00:18:06,719
并引发乔纳森·林斯基的反应

618
00:18:06,719 --> 00:18:07,719
当我们开播时

619
00:18:07,719 --> 00:18:10,519
刚刚发布了一份报告

620
00:18:10,519 --> 00:18:12,079
其中他表示

621
00:18:12,079 --> 00:18:12,839
呃

622
00:18:12,839 --> 00:18:18,049
标普6550至6600点现在关键

623
00:18:19,049 --> 00:18:20,569
收盘跌破6550点

624
00:18:20,569 --> 00:18:25,990
将暗示重要顶部并下探至6000点

625
00:18:25,990 --> 00:18:29,430
这是BG的乔纳森·奎斯尼克刚发布的

626
00:18:29,430 --> 00:18:31,269
其中他表示失去耐心

627
00:18:31,269 --> 00:18:31,730
喘息

628
00:18:31,730 --> 00:18:37,140
侵蚀和金融脆弱性已无法忽视

629
00:18:37,140 --> 00:18:37,539
你怎么看

630
00:18:37,539 --> 00:18:37,700
不

631
00:18:37,700 --> 00:18:38,779
这让我感觉不好

632
00:18:38,779 --> 00:18:41,839
但在此之前我们表现良好

633
00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:44,240
现在标普500指数仅下跌2%

634
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:45,559
我知道损失巨大

635
00:18:45,559 --> 00:18:46,119
严重

636
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,680
标普500下方情况更糟

637
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,099
但能守住这点令人鼓舞

638
00:18:51,099 --> 00:18:54,069
你仍在看到不同轮动现象

639
00:18:54,069 --> 00:18:56,289
市场厌恶不确定性

640
00:18:56,289 --> 00:18:58,470
战争带来最大痛苦

641
00:18:58,470 --> 00:18:59,950
我们不清楚细节

642
00:18:59,950 --> 00:19:00,769
我们完全不知

643
00:19:00,769 --> 00:19:02,259
将持续多久

644
00:19:02,259 --> 00:19:03,059
我们

645
00:19:03,059 --> 00:19:06,339
我们每天可能有新进展

646
00:19:06,339 --> 00:19:07,539
所有人新的推文

647
00:19:07,539 --> 00:19:08,140
没错

648
00:19:08,140 --> 00:19:09,079
在负面方面

649
00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:10,259
显然油价正在

650
00:19:10,259 --> 00:19:10,920
而且就是这样

651
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,779
看到市场走势如此迅猛令人担忧

652
00:19:13,779 --> 00:19:15,700
但当你现在在加油站思考这个问题

653
00:19:15,700 --> 00:19:19,390
现在油价在三美元六十美分，实际上处于历史水平

654
00:19:19,390 --> 00:19:21,730
回看2022和2023年的情况

655
00:19:21,730 --> 00:19:25,099
感谢布赖恩·斯利文今早早些时候指出这一点

656
00:19:25,099 --> 00:19:25,619
嗯

657
00:19:25,619 --> 00:19:26,980
这不是要求破坏

658
00:19:26,980 --> 00:19:27,359
听着

659
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,059
我们不仅在事实层面

660
00:19:30,059 --> 00:19:31,500
我们并不处于牛市

661
00:19:31,500 --> 00:19:33,519
你知道我们已经很久没有处于牛市了

662
00:19:33,519 --> 00:19:35,420
真正的牛市在十月结束

663
00:19:35,420 --> 00:19:36,140
在我看来

664
00:19:36,140 --> 00:19:38,068
因为那时我们看到了最大的

665
00:19:38,068 --> 00:19:39,868
全球最具影响力的公司

666
00:19:39,868 --> 00:19:41,269
股市中最重要的企业

667
00:19:41,269 --> 00:19:42,368
它们几乎都达到了峰值

668
00:19:42,368 --> 00:19:44,279
我知道Meta在万圣节前后达到顶峰

669
00:19:44,279 --> 00:19:45,220
看看英伟达

670
00:19:45,220 --> 00:19:47,099
英伟达早在十月就已见顶

671
00:19:47,099 --> 00:19:48,839
十月仿佛是百年前的事

672
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:48,960
现在

673
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,019
此时此刻

674
00:19:50,019 --> 00:19:51,579
看这里

675
00:19:51,579 --> 00:19:52,599
回溯到十月

676
00:19:52,599 --> 00:19:54,159
万圣节前不久

677
00:19:54,159 --> 00:19:57,358
英伟达一度触及207点左右

678
00:19:57,358 --> 00:19:58,298
大约在这个位置

679
00:19:58,298 --> 00:20:00,479
此后从未回到那里

680
00:20:00,479 --> 00:20:02,068
所以你知道

681
00:20:02,068 --> 00:20:03,888
当英伟达创出历史新高时

682
00:20:03,888 --> 00:20:05,990
我不知道这是否会在近期发生

683
00:20:05,990 --> 00:20:07,170
但一旦发生

684
00:20:07,170 --> 00:20:07,450
好的

685
00:20:07,450 --> 00:20:08,750
我们就可以重新定义牛市

686
00:20:08,750 --> 00:20:10,750
或者当市场进入熊市阶段

687
00:20:10,750 --> 00:20:12,829
当市场进入熊市

688
00:20:12,829 --> 00:20:13,109
对

689
00:20:13,109 --> 00:20:14,470
然后市场触底

690
00:20:14,470 --> 00:20:15,829
然后从底部开始回升

691
00:20:15,829 --> 00:20:16,509
那时我可以说

692
00:20:16,509 --> 00:20:18,539
我们再次进入牛市

693
00:20:18,539 --> 00:20:25,000
但当前是震荡下行的跳水行情，为买家提供绝佳机会

694
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,730
这并不令人意外

695
00:20:26,730 --> 00:20:27,170
你知道的

696
00:20:27,170 --> 00:20:30,930
估值在第一季度变得极度膨胀

697
00:20:30,930 --> 00:20:31,450
或者请原谅

698
00:20:31,450 --> 00:20:32,190
在第四季度

699
00:20:32,190 --> 00:20:34,279
去年第四季度的初期阶段

700
00:20:34,279 --> 00:20:35,420
去年第四季度的开头部分

701
00:20:35,420 --> 00:20:36,880
估值在

702
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:37,539
英伟达

703
00:20:37,539 --> 00:20:38,660
在元宇宙领域

704
00:20:38,660 --> 00:20:39,079
你知道的

705
00:20:39,079 --> 00:20:40,138
所有股票都这样

706
00:20:40,138 --> 00:20:40,558
嗯

707
00:20:40,558 --> 00:20:41,138
并不泡沫

708
00:20:41,138 --> 00:20:42,398
从这样的角度来看

709
00:20:42,398 --> 00:20:42,699
天啊

710
00:20:42,699 --> 00:20:44,459
这个市场简直严重高估了

711
00:20:44,459 --> 00:20:45,719
我们需要暴跌50%

712
00:20:45,719 --> 00:20:46,179
不

713
00:20:46,179 --> 00:20:48,459
但许多股票的估值确实被拉高了

714
00:20:48,459 --> 00:20:49,999
像Palantir这样的股票

715
00:20:49,999 --> 00:20:50,598
Palantir

716
00:20:50,598 --> 00:20:51,419
另一个发言者

717
00:20:51,419 --> 00:20:52,490
孩子的

718
00:20:52,490 --> 00:20:53,150
你知道的

719
00:20:53,150 --> 00:20:57,029
一只备受追捧的股票

720
00:20:57,029 --> 00:20:58,450
估值炒作

721
00:20:58,450 --> 00:20:59,410
看看这个

722
00:20:59,410 --> 00:21:00,589
这个在

723
00:21:00,589 --> 00:21:02,049
万圣节前后达到顶峰

724
00:21:02,049 --> 00:21:03,430
就在那里

725
00:21:03,430 --> 00:21:06,180
所以核心观点是

726
00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:07,819
我们不在熊市

727
00:21:07,819 --> 00:21:09,079
我们不在牛市

728
00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:13,359
我们现在处于袋鼠式下跌市场

729
00:21:14,380 --> 00:21:17,210
直到出现大幅下跌

730
00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:18,750
我们不能说是熊市

731
00:21:18,750 --> 00:21:21,569
或直到突破历史新高并跌破部分股票

732
00:21:21,569 --> 00:21:23,250
不能说是牛市

733
00:21:23,250 --> 00:21:25,150
只要在这些区间震荡

734
00:21:25,150 --> 00:21:26,869
我们只是处于袋鼠市场

735
00:21:26,869 --> 00:21:29,309
有时会持续数月

736
00:21:29,309 --> 00:21:31,150
有时可能持续一两年

737
00:21:31,150 --> 00:21:33,150
我们现在已进入袋鼠市场

738
00:21:33,150 --> 00:21:33,990
我认为已经

739
00:21:33,990 --> 00:21:35,150
你知道的

740
00:21:35,150 --> 00:21:37,009
大约六个月

741
00:21:37,009 --> 00:21:38,190
暂且算到这里

742
00:21:38,190 --> 00:21:40,509
大约六个月处于袋鼠市场

743
00:21:40,509 --> 00:21:41,569
这很正常

744
00:21:41,569 --> 00:21:42,430
长期投资者

745
00:21:42,430 --> 00:21:44,369
可以捡到优质股票

746
00:21:44,369 --> 00:21:45,230
绝佳估值

747
00:21:45,230 --> 00:21:45,789
嘿

748
00:21:45,789 --> 00:21:46,980
如果你持有分红股

749
00:21:46,980 --> 00:21:47,900
你会获得分红

750
00:21:47,900 --> 00:21:49,420
每季度领取丰厚股息

751
00:21:49,420 --> 00:21:50,599
三点六十的景色很美

752
00:21:50,599 --> 00:21:51,059
然而

753
00:21:51,059 --> 00:21:53,039
显然这就是我们现在等待的原因

754
00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:55,200
这就是那种负面和不安的感觉

755
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,559
我也不太喜欢

756
00:21:56,559 --> 00:21:58,900
冯·诺依曼持续看涨

757
00:21:58,900 --> 00:22:00,990
但积极的一面

758
00:22:00,990 --> 00:22:04,130
斯科特，经济数据其实还不错

759
00:22:04,130 --> 00:22:04,750
相当不错

760
00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:05,869
亚特兰大联储追踪指标

761
00:22:05,869 --> 00:22:08,029
我知道我可能抢了你的风头

762
00:22:08,029 --> 00:22:08,509
吉米

763
00:22:08,509 --> 00:22:09,329
但目前在两点

764
00:22:09,329 --> 00:22:10,329
百分之七

765
00:22:10,329 --> 00:22:13,150
周五非农就业数据让大家恐慌

766
00:22:13,150 --> 00:22:16,019
今早初请失业金表现良好

767
00:22:16,019 --> 00:22:18,759
零售销售数据也很强劲

768
00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:19,720
看看好市多

769
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:20,680
看看迪克斯

770
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:21,660
看看沃尔玛

771
00:22:21,660 --> 00:22:23,920
我只是觉得这些指标虽然

772
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:24,640
它们都很好

773
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:25,779
但几乎毫无意义

774
00:22:25,779 --> 00:22:28,519
因为生产力才是我刚才要说的重点

775
00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:31,140
而生产力并非如此

776
00:22:31,140 --> 00:22:32,700
生产力不是后视镜指标

777
00:22:32,700 --> 00:22:34,019
但实际生产力

778
00:22:34,019 --> 00:22:37,420
但这就是我要补充的第四点结论

779
00:22:37,420 --> 00:22:39,709
这些其他因素当然会变化

780
00:22:39,709 --> 00:22:42,250
但目前数据情况是

781
00:22:42,250 --> 00:22:44,720
数据和生产力构成重大利好

782
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,819
这是一个强劲的顺风，能抵消压力

783
00:22:46,819 --> 00:22:47,799
最后一件事

784
00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:49,539
一项重大利好尚未落地

785
00:22:49,539 --> 00:22:52,740
这将有助于缓解

786
00:22:52,740 --> 00:22:53,630
油价

787
00:22:53,630 --> 00:22:55,630
可能缓解通胀压力

788
00:22:55,630 --> 00:22:56,869
抱歉打断

789
00:22:56,869 --> 00:22:57,589
吉米和乔什

790
00:22:57,589 --> 00:23:00,490
我完全认同你根本性的观点

791
00:23:00,490 --> 00:23:01,888
我们当前的处境

792
00:23:01,888 --> 00:23:05,669
能否守住霍尔木兹海峡

793
00:23:05,669 --> 00:23:07,608
所有问题都归结于此

794
00:23:07,608 --> 00:23:08,638
如果我们能做到

795
00:23:08,638 --> 00:23:10,838
则惩罚性环境将持续

796
00:23:10,838 --> 00:23:12,659
如果我们能守住它

797
00:23:12,659 --> 00:23:15,818
那么我们就能回家，这完全是二选一

798
00:23:15,818 --> 00:23:18,569
市场显然在对此反应

799
00:23:18,569 --> 00:23:24,829
摩根大通交易部门发出战术看空信号

800
00:23:24,829 --> 00:23:26,138
今早

801
00:23:26,138 --> 00:23:29,118
做多能源和能源股，做空股票

802
00:23:29,118 --> 00:23:30,650
其实就这么简单

803
00:23:30,650 --> 00:23:31,349
他们说

804
00:23:31,349 --> 00:23:31,569
引述

805
00:23:31,569 --> 00:23:33,730
如果我们在周日期货开盘时

806
00:23:33,730 --> 00:23:34,809
没有达成解决方案

807
00:23:34,809 --> 00:23:38,609
我们认为风险资产将面临更激进的抛售

808
00:23:38,609 --> 00:23:39,210
呃

809
00:23:39,210 --> 00:23:42,670
我建议你去CNBC Pro订阅

810
00:23:42,670 --> 00:23:45,509
你就能阅读更多此类内容

811
00:23:45,509 --> 00:23:48,009
因为有关于

812
00:23:48,009 --> 00:23:50,839
摩根大通交易部门对

813
00:23:50,839 --> 00:23:54,180
如何从战术角度应对市场

814
00:23:54,180 --> 00:23:56,480
这与乔所说的相符

815
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,609
这是一个二元问题

816
00:23:58,609 --> 00:24:00,029
直接开盘

817
00:24:01,109 --> 00:24:03,199
股票直线收盘

818
00:24:03,199 --> 00:24:04,298
股票陷入困境

819
00:24:04,298 --> 00:24:06,038
这是一个二元问题斯科特

820
00:24:06,038 --> 00:24:06,838
我同意

821
00:24:06,838 --> 00:24:07,398
然而

822
00:24:07,398 --> 00:24:08,959
还有另一个维度

823
00:24:08,959 --> 00:24:09,598
那就是时间

824
00:24:09,598 --> 00:24:11,199
这将持续多久

825
00:24:11,199 --> 00:24:12,398
持续时间越长

826
00:24:12,398 --> 00:24:14,118
造成的损害将越严重

827
00:24:14,118 --> 00:24:16,058
总统表示这是为期四周的行动

828
00:24:16,058 --> 00:24:19,230
如果情况属实且在接下来两周内局势打开

829
00:24:19,230 --> 00:24:19,829
我想可能

830
00:24:19,829 --> 00:24:20,809
将会造成损害

831
00:24:20,809 --> 00:24:23,429
将损害利润和盈利增长

832
00:24:23,429 --> 00:24:25,108
这将是暂时性的

833
00:24:25,108 --> 00:24:27,048
我们甚至可以停止讨论

834
00:24:27,048 --> 00:24:31,750
四周或五周的月份是因为信息传递如此不一致

835
00:24:31,750 --> 00:24:33,269
因为今天早上

836
00:24:33,269 --> 00:24:35,630
我们将坚守阵地直到他们失败

837
00:24:35,630 --> 00:24:36,769
只要需要的时间

838
00:24:36,769 --> 00:24:38,470
谢谢

839
00:24:38,470 --> 00:24:38,809
是的

840
00:24:38,809 --> 00:24:40,029
百分百同意

841
00:24:40,029 --> 00:24:41,390
你不能相信这些时间表

842
00:24:41,390 --> 00:24:42,329
就像我不会感到意外

843
00:24:42,329 --> 00:24:43,369
如果你知道

844
00:24:43,369 --> 00:24:45,970
团队明天宣布几天后的胜利

845
00:24:45,970 --> 00:24:47,920
如果局势仍在持续

846
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,640
几个月后

847
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,900
或者胜利会被宣布

848
00:24:52,900 --> 00:24:56,299
但幕后仍有大量事情在进行

849
00:24:56,299 --> 00:24:56,900
你知道的

850
00:24:56,900 --> 00:24:58,940
甚至可能仍有地面部队存在

851
00:24:58,940 --> 00:25:01,559
你知道这里有很多游戏可以玩

852
00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:03,779
所以最终将由市场来决定

853
00:25:03,779 --> 00:25:05,460
只是基于言论行动吗

854
00:25:05,460 --> 00:25:06,500
还是会更多

855
00:25:06,500 --> 00:25:07,700
取决于实际行动

856
00:25:07,700 --> 00:25:10,119
我的猜测是股市将更多基于

857
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,180
基于实际行动

858
00:25:11,180 --> 00:25:13,019
无论说了什么话

859
00:25:13,019 --> 00:25:15,710
我不认为这些现在会更重要

860
00:25:15,710 --> 00:25:16,190
哦

861
00:25:16,190 --> 00:25:17,230
我们该结束这段了

862
00:25:17,230 --> 00:25:18,230
或者胜利时

863
00:25:18,230 --> 00:25:19,750
我认为市场会关注行动

864
00:25:20,750 --> 00:25:22,369
实际发生的情况

865
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,160
这就是决定方式

866
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,200
如果市场想转向风险或避险

867
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,750
如果我们重回真正的牛市

868
00:25:29,750 --> 00:25:31,069
或者将进入熊市

869
00:25:31,069 --> 00:25:31,950
我们将保持考拉行情

870
00:25:31,950 --> 00:25:33,150
如果你要押注于此

871
00:25:33,150 --> 00:25:35,509
我不知道需要四到五天或现在

872
00:25:35,509 --> 00:25:37,289
四到五周或四到五个月

873
00:25:37,289 --> 00:25:37,980
祝你好运

874
00:25:37,980 --> 00:25:38,480
是的

875
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,420
我同意你的观点，信息传递每天都在变化

876
00:25:42,420 --> 00:25:43,319
甚至更频繁

877
00:25:43,319 --> 00:25:45,909
但我要说的是我没有改变立场

878
00:25:45,909 --> 00:25:49,628
继续投资广泛分散的股票组合

879
00:25:49,628 --> 00:25:52,740
所以我还没采纳摩根大通的建议

880
00:25:52,740 --> 00:25:54,960
原因正如你说的斯科特

881
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,019
正如你说的乔

882
00:25:56,019 --> 00:25:58,019
如果明天街道开放

883
00:25:58,019 --> 00:26:00,440
或是一周后、两周后

884
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,059
我认为不会造成足够损害动摇

885
00:26:03,059 --> 00:26:06,400
经济和市场的积极力量

886
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,500
无论是预算法案的刺激措施

887
00:26:08,500 --> 00:26:10,000
还是人工智能发展

888
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,569
资本支出

889
00:26:11,569 --> 00:26:13,150
海峡关闭

890
00:26:13,150 --> 00:26:14,089
将留下印记

891
00:26:14,089 --> 00:26:15,369
但这不会致命

892
00:26:15,369 --> 00:26:17,529
如果本周结束前开放

893
00:26:17,529 --> 00:26:21,680
我想指出关于石油的一点，这里存在缓冲空间

894
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,200
我们必须记住在开始前

895
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,388
供应远超需求的显著过剩

896
00:26:27,388 --> 00:26:28,608
现在并非如此

897
00:26:28,608 --> 00:26:28,949
你知道的

898
00:26:28,949 --> 00:26:30,989
贝克休斯钻机指数回升只是时间问题

899
00:26:30,989 --> 00:26:32,788
特别是美国市场已严重低迷

900
00:26:32,788 --> 00:26:35,930
但石油市场仍有缓冲空间

901
00:26:35,930 --> 00:26:37,809
只要本周结束前保持开放

902
00:26:37,809 --> 00:26:38,970
你意识到今天是星期四

903
00:26:38,970 --> 00:26:39,170
不

904
00:26:39,170 --> 00:26:39,769
我确实

905
00:26:39,769 --> 00:26:40,089
对不起

906
00:26:40,089 --> 00:26:40,890
如果我说错了

907
00:26:40,890 --> 00:26:42,150
我是说月底前

908
00:26:42,150 --> 00:26:42,950
好的

909
00:26:42,950 --> 00:26:44,599
关于

910
00:26:44,599 --> 00:26:45,079
你知道的

911
00:26:45,079 --> 00:26:46,339
我们这里确实有问题

912
00:26:46,339 --> 00:26:47,700
我稍后会详细说明

913
00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:48,579
让我们月底前完成

914
00:26:48,579 --> 00:26:49,119
谢谢

915
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,779
我必须明确到月底前

916
00:26:51,779 --> 00:26:52,500
好的

917
00:26:52,500 --> 00:26:56,369
今天乔什在评论中提到

918
00:26:56,369 --> 00:26:56,690
你知道的

919
00:26:56,690 --> 00:26:58,329
显然涉及宏观风险

920
00:26:58,329 --> 00:27:00,880
这正是整个故事的核心

921
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:01,720
他们指出

922
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,440
我们认为市场可能低估了

923
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,630
全球同步放缓的可能性

924
00:27:05,630 --> 00:27:10,730
新兴市场布局已更清晰，新机遇浮现

925
00:27:10,730 --> 00:27:14,819
这与人们原本认为的更好机会一致

926
00:27:14,819 --> 00:27:17,420
嗯在新兴市场

927
00:27:17,420 --> 00:27:18,819
而不是美国市场

928
00:27:18,819 --> 00:27:21,160
因多种因素

929
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,920
我们此时无需深入讨论

930
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:24,559
我不认为

931
00:27:24,559 --> 00:27:27,819
但市场低估了

932
00:27:27,819 --> 00:27:32,529
全球同步放缓的情景

933
00:27:32,529 --> 00:27:35,529
所有人都担忧并关注

934
00:27:35,529 --> 00:27:36,430
嗯

935
00:27:36,430 --> 00:27:37,009
你知道的

936
00:27:37,009 --> 00:27:38,029
汽油价格上涨

937
00:27:38,029 --> 00:27:41,700
普通美国人每周需多花十美元

938
00:27:41,700 --> 00:27:42,740
或二十美元

939
00:27:42,740 --> 00:27:43,920
或三十美元

940
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:44,180
很好

941
00:27:44,180 --> 00:27:44,539
嗯

942
00:27:44,539 --> 00:27:45,799
加油车用确实很贵

943
00:27:45,799 --> 00:27:46,500
这令人担忧

944
00:27:46,500 --> 00:27:49,549
但真正更大的担忧在于

945
00:27:49,549 --> 00:27:51,829
如果你要思考

946
00:27:51,829 --> 00:27:53,549
担心经济问题

947
00:27:53,549 --> 00:27:55,750
进而可能影响盈利

948
00:27:55,750 --> 00:27:58,329
或类似情况

949
00:27:58,329 --> 00:27:59,789
其实存在更大的问题

950
00:27:59,789 --> 00:28:01,138
我认为应该讨论这个

951
00:28:01,138 --> 00:28:02,798
这是高端消费者

952
00:28:02,798 --> 00:28:08,659
如果我们了解过去几年支撑经济复苏的关键因素

953
00:28:08,659 --> 00:28:10,479
实际上一直是高端消费者在支撑

954
00:28:10,479 --> 00:28:12,318
大部分消费支出都来自这里

955
00:28:12,318 --> 00:28:13,000
没错

956
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:14,299
高端消费者群体

957
00:28:14,299 --> 00:28:17,039
我们在高端消费者群体中确实存在一些问题

958
00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:17,319
没错

959
00:28:17,319 --> 00:28:19,329
当我提到高端消费者时

960
00:28:19,329 --> 00:28:20,170
我指的是谁呢

961
00:28:20,170 --> 00:28:24,769
我指的是年收入数百万美元以上的人群

962
00:28:24,769 --> 00:28:25,349
没错

963
00:28:25,349 --> 00:28:28,619
我指的是净资产达百万美元的人群

964
00:28:28,619 --> 00:28:29,440
没错

965
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,980
经济中的大部分消费确实来自这里

966
00:28:33,259 --> 00:28:34,579
我们确实存在这些问题

967
00:28:34,579 --> 00:28:35,019
好的

968
00:28:35,019 --> 00:28:36,910
第一个问题是

969
00:28:36,910 --> 00:28:39,970
人们对AI可能取代工作的担忧很多

970
00:28:39,970 --> 00:28:41,329
我们都清楚这一点对吧

971
00:28:41,329 --> 00:28:43,509
因此形成了这样的动态

972
00:28:43,509 --> 00:28:44,549
如果你身处

973
00:28:44,549 --> 00:28:48,190
你知道在AI可能威胁就业的领域

974
00:28:48,190 --> 00:28:49,710
因AI带来的就业不安全感

975
00:28:49,710 --> 00:28:52,579
可能会让你减少消费对吧

976
00:28:52,579 --> 00:28:55,519
此外对于高净值人群

977
00:28:55,519 --> 00:28:58,119
他们大量投资股市

978
00:28:58,119 --> 00:28:58,660
特别是

979
00:28:58,660 --> 00:28:59,859
大量投资科技股对吧

980
00:28:59,859 --> 00:29:01,250
以及许多大型科技公司

981
00:29:01,250 --> 00:29:04,009
还有比特币、以太坊这类资产

982
00:29:04,009 --> 00:29:04,609
嗯

983
00:29:04,609 --> 00:29:06,539
比如比特币、以太坊这类

984
00:29:06,539 --> 00:29:07,920
表现并不理想

985
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,039
当然没错

986
00:29:09,039 --> 00:29:09,420
呃

987
00:29:09,420 --> 00:29:12,420
比特币从去年峰值下跌约44-50%

988
00:29:12,420 --> 00:29:13,759
去年曾触及历史新高

989
00:29:13,759 --> 00:29:15,440
具体时间我记不清了

990
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,000
是夏天还是秋天达到顶峰

991
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,259
但此后已下跌40-45%

992
00:29:20,259 --> 00:29:22,319
以太坊跌幅超过50%

993
00:29:22,319 --> 00:29:23,380
如果你持有这些资产

994
00:29:23,380 --> 00:29:24,339
你知道的

995
00:29:24,339 --> 00:29:24,779
你知道的

996
00:29:24,779 --> 00:29:26,099
财富效应并不明显

997
00:29:26,099 --> 00:29:27,559
纳斯达克指数也在下跌

998
00:29:27,559 --> 00:29:29,180
距历史高点回落约7%

999
00:29:29,180 --> 00:29:29,700
当时曾触及

1000
00:29:29,700 --> 00:29:31,299
去年早些时候就已达到

1001
00:29:31,299 --> 00:29:33,160
所以如果你在考虑

1002
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,519
这就是为什么如果你在考虑美国运通股票的话

1003
00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:38,099
作为长期投资者我非常喜欢

1004
00:29:38,099 --> 00:29:39,500
接下来几个月我会尽可能多地买入

1005
00:29:39,500 --> 00:29:40,949
但我接下来几个月的情况还不确定

1006
00:29:40,949 --> 00:29:43,659
短期我们还不清楚对吧

1007
00:29:43,659 --> 00:29:44,719
短期来看

1008
00:29:44,719 --> 00:29:45,259
你知道的

1009
00:29:45,259 --> 00:29:46,459
可能稍微有点不稳定

1010
00:29:46,459 --> 00:29:47,598
在高端消费领域

1011
00:29:47,598 --> 00:29:49,200
可能会有回调

1012
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,519
作为长期投资者这完全没问题

1013
00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:52,200
这就是现状

1014
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,789
但短期你确实需要从经济角度担心

1015
00:29:55,789 --> 00:29:58,230
因为这真正拯救了经济

1016
00:29:58,230 --> 00:30:00,219
过去几年我们可能本会经历

1017
00:30:00,219 --> 00:30:00,939
我说

1018
00:30:00,939 --> 00:30:04,138
我认为我们几乎有极高的概率

1019
00:30:04,138 --> 00:30:07,740
本会经历一场严重衰退

1020
00:30:08,460 --> 00:30:12,640
但过去几年高端消费确实支撑了经济

1021
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,079
总之

1022
00:30:14,079 --> 00:30:14,660
你知道的

1023
00:30:14,660 --> 00:30:18,440
富人和高收入群体会受到很多指责

1024
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:18,980
但我要说

1025
00:30:18,980 --> 00:30:20,079
我只想对你们坦诚

1026
00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:21,440
他们确实拯救了经济

1027
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,069
从过去几年的事实和数据来看

1028
00:30:25,069 --> 00:30:28,950
我觉得大局是

1029
00:30:28,950 --> 00:30:30,069
我实在

1030
00:30:30,069 --> 00:30:33,420
我记不清标普指数

1031
00:30:33,420 --> 00:30:36,599
如今接近历史新高

1032
00:30:36,599 --> 00:30:40,170
但市场信心却如此低迷

1033
00:30:40,170 --> 00:30:41,849
这真是令人惊叹

1034
00:30:41,849 --> 00:30:45,609
我认为轮动是这一切可能的原因

1035
00:30:45,609 --> 00:30:50,150
我们的问题在于表现好的股票被低估

1036
00:30:50,150 --> 00:30:56,519
规模不足以满足交易者需求

1037
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:59,960
而真正重要的股票却表现不佳

1038
00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:03,240
当你考虑能源行业时

1039
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,680
全年最大赢家板块

1040
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:06,759
27%

1041
00:31:06,759 --> 00:31:07,599
截至今年

1042
00:31:07,599 --> 00:31:11,099
我当然一直在大力推荐埃克森美孚

1043
00:31:11,099 --> 00:31:13,920
该公司近期表现强劲

1044
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:14,359
嗯

1045
00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:15,759
但还有

1046
00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:16,999
几只这类股票

1047
00:31:16,999 --> 00:31:18,338
并非上百只

1048
00:31:18,338 --> 00:31:18,638
比如

1049
00:31:18,638 --> 00:31:21,358
在软件或半导体板块

1050
00:31:21,358 --> 00:31:22,619
只有少数几只

1051
00:31:22,619 --> 00:31:23,259
呃

1052
00:31:23,259 --> 00:31:25,720
然后你得下探到小写字母

1053
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:26,680
嗯，对了

1054
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:28,680
这对市场来说有点问题

1055
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:33,829
另一个问题是存在缓慢的负面新闻循环

1056
00:31:33,829 --> 00:31:36,269
现在正演变为负面价格周期

1057
00:31:36,269 --> 00:31:38,929
在私募股权领域

1058
00:31:38,929 --> 00:31:39,808
非常低调地

1059
00:31:39,808 --> 00:31:42,400
XLF指数出现了13%的回撤

1060
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:43,759
这非常负面

1061
00:31:43,759 --> 00:31:45,319
我甚至不确定是否真的非常低调

1062
00:31:45,319 --> 00:31:46,920
我们要坦诚地对你说

1063
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,549
我不知道是否真的那么安静

1064
00:31:48,549 --> 00:31:50,230
我们已经讨论了一段时间

1065
00:31:50,230 --> 00:31:51,529
但这并不刺耳

1066
00:31:51,529 --> 00:31:53,138
它一直在持续

1067
00:31:53,138 --> 00:31:56,019
呃，有一段时间了，嘿

1068
00:31:56,019 --> 00:31:57,818
如果金融业继续出现

1069
00:31:57,818 --> 00:32:00,638
我多次说过，我们与多位嘉宾讨论过

1070
00:32:00,638 --> 00:32:03,118
如果金融业继续出现问题

1071
00:32:03,118 --> 00:32:04,719
你将很难

1072
00:32:04,719 --> 00:32:08,930
让市场恢复稳定和韧性

1073
00:32:09,289 --> 00:32:10,250
好吧，你曾有过

1074
00:32:10,250 --> 00:32:10,890
你曾有过

1075
00:32:10,890 --> 00:32:13,849
你曾发布了一份低于预期的劳动力报告

1076
00:32:13,849 --> 00:32:17,859
现在美国银行出现17%的回撤

1077
00:32:17,859 --> 00:32:21,679
信用卡公司同步金融下跌28%

1078
00:32:21,679 --> 00:32:23,719
Capital One下跌31%

1079
00:32:23,719 --> 00:32:28,338
再次，就业数据令人意外

1080
00:32:28,338 --> 00:32:30,269
负面且不理想

1081
00:32:30,269 --> 00:32:30,910
嗯

1082
00:32:30,910 --> 00:32:32,750
XLF指数处于回撤状态

1083
00:32:32,750 --> 00:32:35,819
几乎和解放日暴跌时一样严重

1084
00:32:35,819 --> 00:32:37,119
当时下跌了16%

1085
00:32:37,119 --> 00:32:38,259
我们下跌了13%

1086
00:32:38,259 --> 00:32:39,160
我们即将达到

1087
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:44,299
当然还有金融板块的PE/PC子类

1088
00:32:44,299 --> 00:32:47,339
目前已下跌50%

1089
00:32:47,339 --> 00:32:50,500
50%或更多回撤

1090
00:32:50,500 --> 00:32:54,440
随着摩根大通开始下调资产估值

1091
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,150
向这些私募信贷机构放贷

1092
00:32:57,150 --> 00:33:00,009
几乎形成自我实现的循环

1093
00:33:00,009 --> 00:33:00,769
当

1094
00:33:00,769 --> 00:33:01,369
嗯

1095
00:33:01,369 --> 00:33:02,869
新闻周期很糟糕

1096
00:33:02,869 --> 00:33:04,829
这促使更多赎回

1097
00:33:04,829 --> 00:33:06,650
使新闻周期更糟

1098
00:33:06,650 --> 00:33:08,470
加剧赎回行为

1099
00:33:08,470 --> 00:33:09,029
哦对

1100
00:33:09,029 --> 00:33:11,369
我认为这不会自行稳定

1101
00:33:11,369 --> 00:33:13,460
所以我清楚我们正在讨论原油

1102
00:33:13,460 --> 00:33:14,000
嗯

1103
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,099
我知道我们正在谈论霍尔木兹海峡

1104
00:33:16,099 --> 00:33:19,630
但各位如果这个问题明天解决

1105
00:33:19,630 --> 00:33:22,670
这并不能改变我们面临的更大问题

1106
00:33:22,670 --> 00:33:24,269
那就是缺乏坚定立场

1107
00:33:24,269 --> 00:33:25,109
最后一点

1108
00:33:25,109 --> 00:33:26,950
这就是灵活交易者在做的事

1109
00:33:26,950 --> 00:33:28,369
我给你们几个股票代码

1110
00:33:28,369 --> 00:33:29,819
把这些图表调出来

1111
00:33:29,819 --> 00:33:33,440
这里又是霍尔木兹相关供应中断

1112
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:34,019
嗯

1113
00:33:34,019 --> 00:33:35,700
这次发生在材料领域

1114
00:33:35,700 --> 00:33:37,160
看看这些上涨行情

1115
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:38,029
CF

1116
00:33:38,029 --> 00:33:42,089
上涨13%的MOSAIC（MOS）

1117
00:33:42,089 --> 00:33:44,219
上涨10%的道指

1118
00:33:44,219 --> 00:33:44,699
化工股

1119
00:33:44,699 --> 00:33:47,578
上涨8%的LIONEL

1120
00:33:47,578 --> 00:33:49,259
上涨7%

1121
00:33:49,259 --> 00:33:55,970
交易者正从霍尔木兹海峡关闭中寻找机会

1122
00:33:55,970 --> 00:33:58,029
这些止损单正在飙升

1123
00:33:58,029 --> 00:33:58,609
但再次强调

1124
00:33:58,609 --> 00:34:01,339
它们不足以抵消负面影响

1125
00:34:01,339 --> 00:34:01,720
不

1126
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:05,900
但机会往往在动荡中显现

1127
00:34:05,900 --> 00:34:07,299
正如我们所见

1128
00:34:07,299 --> 00:34:08,320
就是乔

1129
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,909
战争第一天

1130
00:34:10,909 --> 00:34:11,929
我觉得你得等待

1131
00:34:11,929 --> 00:34:12,409
呃

1132
00:34:12,409 --> 00:34:13,108
在继续之前

1133
00:34:13,108 --> 00:34:15,128
我想展示你们非常重要的一件事

1134
00:34:15,128 --> 00:34:18,599
这和他刚才讲的内容相关

1135
00:34:18,599 --> 00:34:22,909
当我们谈论市场中必须运作的股票

1136
00:34:22,909 --> 00:34:23,548
并非运作

1137
00:34:23,548 --> 00:34:23,869
是的

1138
00:34:23,869 --> 00:34:24,208
我的意思是

1139
00:34:24,208 --> 00:34:28,099
我刚才只是回撤到去年万圣节附近

1140
00:34:28,099 --> 00:34:28,539
对吧

1141
00:34:28,539 --> 00:34:30,039
英伟达此后下跌

1142
00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:32,320
亚马逊下跌约6.5%

1143
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:32,780
呃

1144
00:34:32,780 --> 00:34:34,429
特斯拉下跌约9%

1145
00:34:34,429 --> 00:34:36,170
美熹德下跌13.5%

1146
00:34:36,170 --> 00:34:38,449
Palantir下跌17%

1147
00:34:38,449 --> 00:34:40,989
AMD下跌约2.2%

1148
00:34:40,989 --> 00:34:43,588
微软下跌2.3%至IGV

1149
00:34:43,588 --> 00:34:45,168
这是一个软件ETF

1150
00:34:45,168 --> 00:34:47,469
所有软件股都遭受重创

1151
00:34:47,469 --> 00:34:50,349
但IGV本身现在大约是两七左右

1152
00:34:50,349 --> 00:34:53,630
这些是你需要在市场中运作的股票

1153
00:34:53,630 --> 00:34:55,269
如果你要让市场正常运转

1154
00:34:55,269 --> 00:34:56,550
但我们还没有做到

1155
00:34:56,550 --> 00:34:59,900
TF确定吗，这应该是最初的地方

1156
00:34:59,900 --> 00:35:01,239
我觉得你去了

1157
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,840
这导致市场缺乏信心

1158
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,050
当你经历了数月需要运作的股票

1159
00:35:08,050 --> 00:35:09,489
却未能运作

1160
00:35:09,690 --> 00:35:10,210
是的

1161
00:35:10,210 --> 00:35:13,130
这让寻找股票变得困难

1162
00:35:13,130 --> 00:35:17,289
这些可能在头条新闻中上涨的机会

1163
00:35:17,289 --> 00:35:21,880
中东当前发生的事件

1164
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,480
我们稍作讨论

1165
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:28,809
伊朗是尿素氮的重要出口国

1166
00:35:28,809 --> 00:35:29,809
这不可谈判

1167
00:35:29,809 --> 00:35:31,969
这是玉米种植的强制要求

1168
00:35:31,969 --> 00:35:35,730
CF在三月的空头持仓率为7%

1169
00:35:35,730 --> 00:35:36,050
一个

1170
00:35:36,050 --> 00:35:38,340
这是我发现极具吸引力的一点

1171
00:35:38,340 --> 00:35:41,179
非常低廉的估值正如Josh所言

1172
00:35:41,179 --> 00:35:43,260
75%的营收增长率

1173
00:35:43,260 --> 00:35:45,280
这正是我首先关注的地方

1174
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:46,719
我在1.04价位买入

1175
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,940
我要完全坦诚地说

1176
00:35:48,940 --> 00:35:50,480
我不知道

1177
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:51,940
我真的不知道

1178
00:35:51,940 --> 00:35:52,619
你是在建议

1179
00:35:52,619 --> 00:35:53,179
你并未使用

1180
00:35:53,179 --> 00:35:53,780
太

1181
00:35:53,780 --> 00:35:55,559
当前持仓情况

1182
00:35:55,559 --> 00:35:56,699
所以我将继续持有

1183
00:35:56,699 --> 00:35:57,900
我保持持仓

1184
00:35:57,900 --> 00:35:59,400
我正在提高止损位

1185
00:35:59,400 --> 00:35:59,719
好的

1186
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:00,420
但再次强调

1187
00:36:00,420 --> 00:36:01,818
这是二元选择

1188
00:36:01,818 --> 00:36:04,739
如果霍尔木兹海峡得到保障

1189
00:36:04,739 --> 00:36:07,699
CF工业将下跌10%

1190
00:36:07,699 --> 00:36:08,619
我知道这一点

1191
00:36:08,619 --> 00:36:09,460
因此可以说

1192
00:36:09,460 --> 00:36:09,719
好的

1193
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:10,858
我将少量卖出

1194
00:36:10,858 --> 00:36:11,378
嗯

1195
00:36:11,378 --> 00:36:11,978
我不太确定

1196
00:36:11,978 --> 00:36:12,418
我想这么做

1197
00:36:12,418 --> 00:36:15,929
我现在唯一在做的就是跟随止损

1198
00:36:15,929 --> 00:36:19,608
但这与战争直接相关

1199
00:36:20,048 --> 00:36:20,568
好的

1200
00:36:20,568 --> 00:36:23,188
接下来这个是汤姆·李

1201
00:36:23,188 --> 00:36:25,730
凯西在CBC的贡献者

1202
00:36:25,730 --> 00:36:28,429
哦这是怎么回事啊二零二一年发生了什么

1203
00:36:28,429 --> 00:36:28,929
天啊我的上帝

1204
00:36:28,929 --> 00:36:30,000
欢迎两位

1205
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:30,679
呃汤姆

1206
00:36:30,679 --> 00:36:32,659
你想先谈谈对市场的看法吗

1207
00:36:32,659 --> 00:36:34,940
为什么科技股这次没参与回调

1208
00:36:34,940 --> 00:36:35,320
这次的情况

1209
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:36,860
到目前为止它们一直是市场的稳定器

1210
00:36:36,860 --> 00:36:38,659
在这轮抛售中

1211
00:36:39,099 --> 00:36:39,739
嗯是的

1212
00:36:39,739 --> 00:36:40,059
我意思是

1213
00:36:40,059 --> 00:36:43,519
我认为科技股整体表现相当稳健

1214
00:36:43,519 --> 00:36:44,260
包括软件行业

1215
00:36:45,260 --> 00:36:45,539
嗯

1216
00:36:45,539 --> 00:36:46,659
这合乎逻辑

1217
00:36:46,659 --> 00:36:50,230
我要做一个反直觉的论断

1218
00:36:50,230 --> 00:36:54,409
油价上涨对美股相对有利

1219
00:36:54,409 --> 00:36:55,449
因为首先

1220
00:36:55,449 --> 00:36:57,889
美国是石油净出口国

1221
00:36:57,889 --> 00:37:02,050
但人们担心高油价会拖累全球增长

1222
00:37:02,050 --> 00:37:04,179
他们更想持有成长型股票

1223
00:37:04,179 --> 00:37:07,809
这实际上促使他们增持美股

1224
00:37:07,809 --> 00:37:09,429
因为美股是成长型指数

1225
00:37:09,429 --> 00:37:11,190
尤其是魔七股和软件板块

1226
00:37:12,190 --> 00:37:12,769
嗯

1227
00:37:12,769 --> 00:37:16,630
所以我认为尽管如此

1228
00:37:16,630 --> 00:37:18,090
汤姆·李先生

1229
00:37:18,090 --> 00:37:20,230
我们并未看到这种迹象

1230
00:37:20,230 --> 00:37:22,170
我们并未看到这种迹象

1231
00:37:22,170 --> 00:37:25,050
我们看到成长股表现良好了吗

1232
00:37:25,050 --> 00:37:25,730
没有

1233
00:37:25,730 --> 00:37:31,469
所以你根本看不到这种证据油价暴涨

1234
00:37:31,469 --> 00:37:35,570
而这些风险资产股票

1235
00:37:35,570 --> 00:37:36,170
全都表现糟糕

1236
00:37:36,170 --> 00:37:38,090
它们就是这么做的

1237
00:37:38,090 --> 00:37:41,750
是的我听了今天的早前讨论

1238
00:37:41,750 --> 00:37:43,449
我也认同

1239
00:37:43,449 --> 00:37:46,880
我认为本月美股已见底

1240
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:47,320
好的

1241
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:47,940
那你觉得呢

1242
00:37:47,940 --> 00:37:48,900
杰弗里暴跌了

1243
00:37:48,900 --> 00:37:49,579
七个百分点

1244
00:37:49,579 --> 00:37:50,559
德意志银行下跌约

1245
00:37:50,559 --> 00:37:52,460
这可能听起来像是汤姆·李的大胆论断

1246
00:37:52,460 --> 00:37:53,568
但请听我说

1247
00:37:53,568 --> 00:37:55,750
我记得二零二二年

1248
00:37:55,750 --> 00:37:57,050
汤姆·李曾做出很多大胆预测

1249
00:37:57,050 --> 00:38:02,250
没错市场持续下跌

1250
00:38:02,250 --> 00:38:07,889
直到二零二二年第四季度才触底

1251
00:38:07,889 --> 00:38:08,909
所以先理解一下

1252
00:38:08,909 --> 00:38:09,949
仅仅因为汤姆·李说

1253
00:38:09,949 --> 00:38:10,150
哦

1254
00:38:10,150 --> 00:38:11,050
这个月我们可能触底

1255
00:38:11,050 --> 00:38:12,110
他可能说对了

1256
00:38:12,110 --> 00:38:13,268
但不喜欢

1257
00:38:13,268 --> 00:38:14,168
当作真理接受

1258
00:38:14,168 --> 00:38:17,228
并认为这肯定是我们市场见底

1259
00:38:17,228 --> 00:38:19,909
我们可能还会继续下跌一段时间

1260
00:38:19,909 --> 00:38:22,079
作为长期投资者该怎么做

1261
00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:23,360
抓住优质机会

1262
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,139
如果真的发生这种情况

1263
00:38:25,139 --> 00:38:26,960
很多人在四处观察

1264
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,849
探究这些私人信贷敞口可能在哪里

1265
00:38:29,849 --> 00:38:34,789
现在你对这个叙事怎么看汤姆

1266
00:38:34,789 --> 00:38:35,469
嗯

1267
00:38:35,469 --> 00:38:36,110
你知道的

1268
00:38:36,110 --> 00:38:37,849
私人信贷一直是问题

1269
00:38:37,849 --> 00:38:39,340
所以啊

1270
00:38:39,340 --> 00:38:40,440
我认为确实如此

1271
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,139
呃

1272
00:38:41,139 --> 00:38:42,559
越来越明显

1273
00:38:42,559 --> 00:38:43,719
正如杰米·迪亚蒙德所说

1274
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,260
更多蟑螂

1275
00:38:45,260 --> 00:38:46,199
嗯

1276
00:38:46,199 --> 00:38:49,900
我认为这可能不像我们担心的那么系统性

1277
00:38:49,900 --> 00:38:51,719
我知道人们还在用雷曼锤子

1278
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,159
认为这是重复2008年危机

1279
00:38:54,159 --> 00:38:56,280
但还有很多原因

1280
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:57,880
这不是系统性风险

1281
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,550
市场规模远未达到那个级别

1282
00:39:00,550 --> 00:39:05,329
看似信贷压力的信号其实不真实

1283
00:39:05,329 --> 00:39:06,929
就像2008年那样

1284
00:39:06,929 --> 00:39:07,739
所以我

1285
00:39:07,739 --> 00:39:08,300
你知道的

1286
00:39:08,300 --> 00:39:09,940
我认为现在金融行业受创

1287
00:39:09,940 --> 00:39:12,900
但我不认为这是市场或经济的广泛问题

1288
00:39:12,900 --> 00:39:13,420
凯西

1289
00:39:13,420 --> 00:39:14,300
你们在观察

1290
00:39:14,300 --> 00:39:14,980
如果我不同意

1291
00:39:14,980 --> 00:39:15,380
我做不到

1292
00:39:15,380 --> 00:39:16,559
我做不到凯西

1293
00:39:16,559 --> 00:39:17,079
好吧

1294
00:39:17,079 --> 00:39:18,159
所以听好

1295
00:39:18,159 --> 00:39:22,389
短期内会有大量混乱

1296
00:39:22,389 --> 00:39:24,369
许多担忧和类似情况

1297
00:39:24,369 --> 00:39:25,489
作为长期投资者

1298
00:39:25,489 --> 00:39:26,530
必须超越这些

1299
00:39:26,530 --> 00:39:27,849
要放眼三到五

1300
00:39:27,849 --> 00:39:30,929
七年十年后才能看清 新投资者入市

1301
00:39:30,929 --> 00:39:32,960
很难看得那么远

1302
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,440
因为你只专注于

1303
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:35,159
眼前的事物

1304
00:39:35,159 --> 00:39:36,400
你必须超越这一点

1305
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,059
你知道没有

1306
00:39:38,059 --> 00:39:39,400
你知道就像一个

1307
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,219
就像有人会说

1308
00:39:41,219 --> 00:39:41,980
我想保持身材

1309
00:39:41,980 --> 00:39:43,619
但我不想去健身房

1310
00:39:43,619 --> 00:39:45,219
也不想吃健康食物

1311
00:39:45,219 --> 00:39:45,960
然后你就会

1312
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:46,679
好吧

1313
00:39:46,679 --> 00:39:47,260
呃

1314
00:39:47,260 --> 00:39:48,059
祝你好运

1315
00:39:48,059 --> 00:39:49,000
这就是我听到的

1316
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,119
这就是我看到人们说时想到的

1317
00:39:51,119 --> 00:39:51,519
哦

1318
00:39:51,519 --> 00:39:52,068
你知道的

1319
00:39:52,068 --> 00:39:53,869
我无法长期专注

1320
00:39:53,869 --> 00:39:55,128
我只看短期

1321
00:39:55,128 --> 00:39:56,369
而我没有

1322
00:39:56,369 --> 00:39:58,199
你知道十年时间

1323
00:39:58,199 --> 00:39:59,000
你不该赌博

1324
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:00,039
你不该像赌博

1325
00:40:00,039 --> 00:40:02,128
在短期事务上打钱

1326
00:40:02,128 --> 00:40:04,349
如果你知道自己没时间折腾

1327
00:40:04,349 --> 00:40:04,869
没错

1328
00:40:04,869 --> 00:40:06,409
长期投资

1329
00:40:06,409 --> 00:40:09,940
我们必须为未来几年做投资决策

1330
00:40:09,940 --> 00:40:14,340
而不是今天讨论的内容

1331
00:40:14,340 --> 00:40:15,300
你开玩笑吗

1332
00:40:15,300 --> 00:40:16,460
或者明天会发生什么

1333
00:40:16,460 --> 00:40:18,280
他们会不会开门

1334
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:18,780
等等

1335
00:40:18,780 --> 00:40:19,019
等等

1336
00:40:19,019 --> 00:40:19,579
等等

1337
00:40:19,579 --> 00:40:20,380
兄弟

1338
00:40:20,380 --> 00:40:21,809
所以你知道

1339
00:40:21,809 --> 00:40:23,710
对于不想经历这些的人

1340
00:40:23,710 --> 00:40:26,909
你们就像那些说自己不去健身房

1341
00:40:26,909 --> 00:40:27,670
确实做不到

1342
00:40:27,670 --> 00:40:28,190
你知道的

1343
00:40:28,190 --> 00:40:29,699
吃健康食物就罢了

1344
00:40:29,699 --> 00:40:30,119
你知道的

1345
00:40:30,119 --> 00:40:30,559
祝你好运

1346
00:40:30,559 --> 00:40:31,420
祝你好运啊

1347
00:40:31,420 --> 00:40:32,780
我帮不上忙

1348
00:40:32,780 --> 00:40:35,778
但对于需要帮助的人

1349
00:40:35,778 --> 00:40:36,978
在下方评论

1350
00:40:36,978 --> 00:40:37,418
可以申请

1351
00:40:37,418 --> 00:40:40,320
加入一个私密群组，可访问我所有课程大纲

1352
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:40,940
私密Discord群组

1353
00:40:40,940 --> 00:40:42,139
观看专属每周视频

1354
00:40:42,139 --> 00:40:43,260
所有优质内容

1355
00:40:43,260 --> 00:40:43,460
好的

1356
00:40:43,460 --> 00:40:44,420
大家一如既往地喜欢

1357
00:40:44,420 --> 00:40:45,739
祝大家度过美好一天

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