BV1WYRkBAE6q · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:00,800 大约一周前 2 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:01,459 埃隆·马斯克 3 00:00:01,459 --> 00:00:05,679 向特斯拉股东介绍了公司未来一年左右的计划 4 00:00:05,679 --> 00:00:10,300 但在演讲中他提到的内容令投资者措手不及 5 00:00:10,300 --> 00:00:13,470 事实上这完全扭转了股价走势 6 00:00:13,470 --> 00:00:14,429 就在当天早些时候 7 00:00:14,429 --> 00:00:17,050 公司财报发布后股价上涨了4% 8 00:00:17,050 --> 00:00:19,399 但在告诉你他说了什么之前 9 00:00:19,399 --> 00:00:23,120 你必须了解特斯拉投资者当前的处境 10 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,289 因为他们现在承受着巨大压力 11 00:00:26,289 --> 00:00:30,370 如你所见，公司营收增长在过去几年已明显停滞 12 00:00:30,370 --> 00:00:33,899 但与此同时投资者仍抱有希望 13 00:00:33,899 --> 00:00:35,640 尽管盈利在下滑 14 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:37,619 股价却在上涨 15 00:00:37,619 --> 00:00:42,750 以至于投资者现在支付了340倍的市盈率 16 00:00:42,750 --> 00:00:43,210 是的 17 00:00:43,210 --> 00:00:44,570 这意味着当前表现 18 00:00:44,570 --> 00:00:46,049 如果你现在买入股票 19 00:00:46,049 --> 00:00:49,628 大约需要340年才能回本 20 00:00:49,628 --> 00:00:52,130 但这里有个关键点 21 00:00:52,130 --> 00:00:54,770 投资者并非在做最糟糕的赌注 22 00:00:54,770 --> 00:00:57,969 只是他们预期公司未来将大幅增长利润 23 00:00:57,969 --> 00:00:58,990 在未来一两年内 24 00:00:58,990 --> 00:01:02,380 如果实现将使市盈率回归正常 25 00:01:02,380 --> 00:01:03,179 利润将提升 26 00:01:03,179 --> 00:01:04,280 市盈率将下降 27 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,030 这正是特斯拉投资者的希望所在 28 00:01:07,030 --> 00:01:10,730 但现在马斯克要求他们多些耐心 29 00:01:10,730 --> 00:01:14,640 因为他宣布公司不再专注于赚钱 30 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,170 而是大幅增加支出 31 00:01:18,170 --> 00:01:18,590 是的 32 00:01:18,590 --> 00:01:23,650 马斯克刚宣布未来一年资本支出将大幅增加 33 00:01:23,650 --> 00:01:26,569 为实现更高未来营收增长 34 00:01:26,569 --> 00:01:30,849 我们将大幅增加未来投资 35 00:01:30,849 --> 00:01:34,390 你将看到资本支出显著增长 36 00:01:34,390 --> 00:01:35,269 但我觉得 37 00:01:35,269 --> 00:01:39,859 这对未来大幅增长的营收流是合理的 38 00:01:39,859 --> 00:01:40,920 据CBC报道 39 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,799 特斯拉资本支出同比激增67%至249亿美元 40 00:01:44,799 --> 00:01:45,040 四 41 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,319 本季度达到249亿美元 42 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,579 首席财务官表示这仅是开始 43 00:01:50,579 --> 00:01:54,400 公司计划今年总资本支出250亿美元 44 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,560 较上季度预测增长25% 45 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:02,140 相比2025年支出增加86亿美元 46 00:02:05,500 --> 00:02:10,650 特斯拉采取了先投入再求回报的策略 47 00:02:10,650 --> 00:02:12,250 显然特斯拉并非孤例 48 00:02:12,250 --> 00:02:13,569 你已看到大多数 49 00:02:13,569 --> 00:02:14,340 或许全部 50 00:02:14,340 --> 00:02:16,180 当然，主要科技公司 51 00:02:16,180 --> 00:02:18,439 大幅增加资本投入 52 00:02:18,439 --> 00:02:20,240 我们也将采取相同行动 53 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,539 我认为这将在很大程度上产生回报 54 00:02:22,539 --> 00:02:24,219 这很可能就是实际情况 55 00:02:24,219 --> 00:02:28,479 但问题在于这正在不断拉伸特斯拉投资者 56 00:02:28,479 --> 00:02:30,769 他们是否会继续支持还不得而知 57 00:02:30,769 --> 00:02:33,949 这就是我们看到特斯拉的两面性 58 00:02:33,949 --> 00:02:37,949 这也是特斯拉股票本质争议的原因 59 00:02:37,949 --> 00:02:41,110 两方显然是多头和空头 60 00:02:41,110 --> 00:02:41,949 空头阵营 61 00:02:41,949 --> 00:02:44,500 他们看到一家二十家公司中 62 00:02:44,500 --> 00:02:45,000 两成 63 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:46,520 本季度营收四亿美元 64 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,340 仅保留了四亿七千七百万 65 00:02:48,340 --> 00:02:48,780 你知道的 66 00:02:48,780 --> 00:02:50,159 这家公司的十二个月滚动 67 00:02:50,159 --> 00:02:51,639 每股收益为三点八 68 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,539 六亿美元 69 00:02:52,539 --> 00:02:55,360 估值高达一千二百亿美元 70 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,539 市盈率超过三百 71 00:02:57,539 --> 00:02:57,860 然后 72 00:02:57,860 --> 00:03:01,500 今年资本支出成本增加八十六亿美元 73 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:02,879 他们根本不愿接受 74 00:03:02,879 --> 00:03:04,319 他们会另寻获利途径 75 00:03:04,319 --> 00:03:05,789 但另一方面 76 00:03:05,789 --> 00:03:08,590 多头不仅看到公司现状 77 00:03:08,590 --> 00:03:10,439 更关注未来发展潜力 78 00:03:10,439 --> 00:03:12,219 他们不将特斯拉视为单一车企 79 00:03:12,219 --> 00:03:15,599 而是未来变革性业务的集合 80 00:03:15,599 --> 00:03:17,300 全部在特斯拉旗下 81 00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:19,099 但关键在于 82 00:03:19,099 --> 00:03:21,080 若市盈率飙升 83 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,919 暗示投资者预期公司增长 84 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,259 这会启动一个倒计时 85 00:03:26,259 --> 00:03:29,329 因为投资者不会无限等待 86 00:03:29,329 --> 00:03:30,769 就像这里看到的英伟达 87 00:03:30,769 --> 00:03:33,288 投资者曾愿意在一段时间内推高股价 88 00:03:33,288 --> 00:03:34,829 尽管利润在下降 89 00:03:34,829 --> 00:03:39,000 因为他们预期增长拐点即将来临 90 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,979 正如这里市盈率飙升 91 00:03:41,979 --> 00:03:43,199 但几季后 92 00:03:43,199 --> 00:03:45,509 市盈率回落至前期水平 93 00:03:45,509 --> 00:03:49,349 因为公司开始显著提升每股收益 94 00:03:49,349 --> 00:03:51,270 使比率恢复正常 95 00:03:51,270 --> 00:03:52,539 投资者率先行动 96 00:03:52,539 --> 00:03:53,699 利润随后跟进 97 00:03:53,699 --> 00:03:54,979 市盈率回归 98 00:03:54,979 --> 00:03:56,740 但投资者不会抱太大希望 99 00:03:56,740 --> 00:03:59,340 若英伟达无法提升利润 100 00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:01,919 我们仍然会看到市盈率的正常化 101 00:04:01,919 --> 00:04:03,919 但这是通过股价下跌实现的 102 00:04:03,919 --> 00:04:07,039 这就是特斯拉处境的非常诡异之处 103 00:04:07,039 --> 00:04:10,219 因为特斯拉拥有类似教派的追随者 104 00:04:10,219 --> 00:04:12,379 投资者实际上抱有希望 105 00:04:12,379 --> 00:04:16,480 并且从2024年3月以来一直如此 106 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:18,160 市盈率一直在攀升 107 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:19,278 利润却在下滑 108 00:04:19,278 --> 00:04:22,139 但投资者对未来仍持乐观态度 109 00:04:22,139 --> 00:04:22,778 事实上 110 00:04:22,778 --> 00:04:24,298 随着利润下降 111 00:04:24,298 --> 00:04:25,559 股价却在上涨 112 00:04:25,559 --> 00:04:29,720 此后市盈率一直稳步攀升 113 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,540 达到超过300倍的极度高估水平 114 00:04:32,540 --> 00:04:36,928 但为何投资者对马斯克如此宽容 115 00:04:36,928 --> 00:04:37,389 嗯 116 00:04:37,389 --> 00:04:41,028 这取决于他所打造的公司类型 117 00:04:41,028 --> 00:04:45,038 特斯拉是一家非常特殊的公司，马斯克 118 00:04:45,038 --> 00:04:50,829 他似乎总将业务转向未来科技的方向 119 00:04:50,829 --> 00:04:51,250 当时 120 00:04:51,250 --> 00:04:51,870 例如 121 00:04:51,870 --> 00:04:55,779 公司最初的计划只是制造电动汽车 122 00:04:55,779 --> 00:04:56,519 仅此而已 123 00:04:56,519 --> 00:04:58,259 如果你阅读原始计划书 124 00:04:58,259 --> 00:05:03,199 内容是制造三款电动汽车和少量电力生成设备 125 00:05:03,199 --> 00:05:05,829 这是马斯克当时对未来的科技构想 126 00:05:05,829 --> 00:05:07,470 随后转向自动驾驶 127 00:05:07,470 --> 00:05:09,170 让汽车实现自动驾驶 128 00:05:09,170 --> 00:05:11,519 接着转向人形机器人 129 00:05:11,519 --> 00:05:15,009 而近期则聚焦数据中心和芯片工厂 130 00:05:15,009 --> 00:05:18,790 由于马斯克自认是技术狂人 131 00:05:18,790 --> 00:05:23,449 这意味着特斯拉始终在规划重大项目 132 00:05:23,449 --> 00:05:24,649 全新的事物 133 00:05:24,649 --> 00:05:26,430 未来有潜力的项目 134 00:05:26,430 --> 00:05:28,269 这表明公司 135 00:05:28,269 --> 00:05:32,459 始终有支撑乐观未来的叙事 136 00:05:32,459 --> 00:05:34,120 投资者可以依附 137 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,769 总有一个在推进的计划能证明当前高股价的合理性 138 00:05:38,769 --> 00:05:41,050 总有一种情况让投资者可以说 139 00:05:41,050 --> 00:05:41,250 是的 140 00:05:41,250 --> 00:05:42,990 但想想五年后的利润 141 00:05:42,990 --> 00:05:44,490 一旦完成xyz项目 142 00:05:44,490 --> 00:05:48,790 这对公司持续创新和成长是绝佳的 143 00:05:48,790 --> 00:05:50,550 但从投资角度 144 00:05:50,550 --> 00:05:51,470 由于这一点 145 00:05:51,470 --> 00:05:52,569 这只股票 146 00:05:52,569 --> 00:05:58,879 几乎整个存在期间都维持高估值 147 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:00,519 这就是特斯拉的棘手之处 148 00:06:00,519 --> 00:06:01,240 因为我们现在处于 149 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:02,959 极度乐观的节点 150 00:06:02,959 --> 00:06:09,069 任何季度更新中提供的数字几乎完全无关紧要 151 00:06:09,069 --> 00:06:10,529 从他们的角度来看 152 00:06:10,529 --> 00:06:14,230 最终都取决于马斯克对未来增长项目的更新 153 00:06:14,230 --> 00:06:17,980 目前投资者主要关注五个业务板块 154 00:06:17,980 --> 00:06:20,560 首先是完全自动驾驶的机器人出租车平台 155 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,779 这是特斯拉故事的核心未来收入驱动点 156 00:06:23,779 --> 00:06:24,759 客观地说 157 00:06:24,759 --> 00:06:28,019 现在他们确实接近完成这项任务 158 00:06:28,019 --> 00:06:31,839 我们有一系列重大自动驾驶改进方案 159 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:36,800 我们相信这将实现全球无监督完全自动驾驶 160 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,420 在法律允许的范围内 161 00:06:38,420 --> 00:06:40,220 然后是版本十五 162 00:06:40,220 --> 00:06:41,300 可能在今年年底 163 00:06:41,300 --> 00:06:42,860 最迟明年年初 164 00:06:42,860 --> 00:06:46,339 这将是软件架构的全面升级 165 00:06:46,339 --> 00:06:47,560 并将运行在人工智能上 166 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:53,790 届时我们将真正将FSD安全水平提升至超越人类 167 00:06:53,790 --> 00:06:54,370 甚至更高 168 00:06:54,370 --> 00:06:54,709 我认为 169 00:06:54,709 --> 00:06:56,189 即使在版本十四 170 00:06:56,189 --> 00:06:58,829 我们已显著优于人类水平 171 00:06:58,829 --> 00:06:59,569 但版本十五 172 00:06:59,569 --> 00:07:01,220 我们将再上一个台阶 173 00:07:01,220 --> 00:07:02,779 这无疑是特斯拉的重大转折点 174 00:07:02,779 --> 00:07:05,160 他们将从与 175 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:05,420 比如 176 00:07:05,420 --> 00:07:10,500 像比亚迪或通用在电动车销售的竞争转向 177 00:07:10,500 --> 00:07:13,339 成为提供自动驾驶出租车服务的公司 178 00:07:13,339 --> 00:07:16,600 这项服务已在奥斯汀 179 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:17,480 得克萨斯州上线 180 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:21,339 马斯克刚宣布将扩展至达拉斯和休斯顿 181 00:07:21,339 --> 00:07:22,519 这就是第一点 182 00:07:22,519 --> 00:07:26,000 特斯拉看好的第二个未来收入驱动点是 183 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:27,079 当然还有擎天柱 184 00:07:27,079 --> 00:07:28,620 人形机器人 185 00:07:28,620 --> 00:07:31,879 这是一个更长期的战略布局 186 00:07:31,879 --> 00:07:35,519 你可能还记得这是2021年8月宣布的 187 00:07:35,519 --> 00:07:37,860 当时只是穿着防护服的人形 188 00:07:37,860 --> 00:07:38,519 擎天柱 189 00:07:38,519 --> 00:07:39,300 客观而言 190 00:07:39,300 --> 00:07:41,100 在短时间内已取得显著进展 191 00:07:41,100 --> 00:07:42,939 在视频中完成基础任务 192 00:07:42,939 --> 00:07:44,240 在特斯拉工厂内行走 193 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,158 操作物体等动作 194 00:07:46,158 --> 00:07:49,478 但这一进展仍远未达到 195 00:07:49,478 --> 00:07:52,860 甚至接近人类水平的实用程度 196 00:07:52,860 --> 00:07:53,360 马斯克 197 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:58,360 明确将其视为特斯拉未来业务的核心支柱 198 00:07:58,360 --> 00:07:59,250 未来发展方向 199 00:07:59,250 --> 00:08:01,189 正如我之前多次提到的 200 00:08:01,189 --> 00:08:03,709 我认为擎天柱将是我们的最大产品 201 00:08:03,709 --> 00:08:05,550 不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品 202 00:08:05,550 --> 00:08:08,029 可能是有史以来最大的产品 203 00:08:08,029 --> 00:08:10,399 我依然坚信这个结论 204 00:08:10,399 --> 00:08:11,439 埃隆在电话会议中提到 205 00:08:11,439 --> 00:08:14,439 他们希望擎天柱能在特斯拉之外具备一定实用性 206 00:08:14,439 --> 00:08:16,079 明年某个时候 207 00:08:19,250 --> 00:08:20,370 不是一年两年内 208 00:08:20,370 --> 00:08:22,579 但可能在未来五到十年 209 00:08:22,579 --> 00:08:25,060 但这能维持梦想的延续 210 00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:28,860 并帮助维持其最新季度财报的市盈率 211 00:08:28,860 --> 00:08:33,340 特斯拉指出，首批大规模擎天柱工厂筹备将于二季度启动 212 00:08:33,340 --> 00:08:35,940 首代生产线设计年产一百万台机器人 213 00:08:35,940 --> 00:08:38,980 将取代弗里蒙特工厂的Model S和Model X生产线 214 00:08:38,980 --> 00:08:42,120 我们同时正在为第二代生产线筹备得克萨斯州超级工厂 215 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,159 该设计具有长期规划性 216 00:08:44,159 --> 00:08:46,779 年产能达十万台机器人 217 00:08:46,779 --> 00:08:48,450 特斯拉空头称其疯狂 218 00:08:48,450 --> 00:08:52,570 但特斯拉多头仍愿意为未来愿景买单 219 00:08:52,570 --> 00:08:55,799 接下来特斯拉第三大未来增长驱动力是 220 00:08:55,799 --> 00:08:56,820 当然他们的能源业务 221 00:08:56,820 --> 00:09:00,379 包括家用太阳能电池和电网级解决方案 222 00:09:00,379 --> 00:09:04,120 尽管其储能部署在一季度降至88吉瓦时 223 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,480 特斯拉首席财务官指出 224 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,818 公司预计2026年将超越2025年 225 00:09:09,818 --> 00:09:16,509 这项业务曾被宣称潜力甚至超过汽车业务 226 00:09:16,509 --> 00:09:17,590 为什么呢 227 00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:20,419 因为它正在重塑汽车未来 228 00:09:20,419 --> 00:09:23,700 到重塑整个电力电网的未来 229 00:09:23,700 --> 00:09:26,860 该业务长期将显著受益 230 00:09:26,860 --> 00:09:30,500 随着全球电网持续增加电池储能 231 00:09:30,500 --> 00:09:31,460 对于这项业务 232 00:09:31,460 --> 00:09:34,799 公司正在德克萨斯州休斯顿外建设新超级工厂 233 00:09:34,799 --> 00:09:38,929 计划建造特斯拉超级电池组用于超级工厂区块 234 00:09:38,929 --> 00:09:40,649 将于今年晚些时候启动 235 00:09:40,649 --> 00:09:44,529 接下来埃隆在财报电话中提到的第四大营收驱动力是 236 00:09:44,529 --> 00:09:48,960 当然特斯拉卡车这是真正有趣的产品 237 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:53,519 它早在2017年11月就已宣布 238 00:09:53,519 --> 00:09:56,710 计划两年后投产 239 00:09:56,710 --> 00:09:58,090 快进到今天 240 00:09:58,090 --> 00:10:00,870 市面上仅有少数客户测试车辆 241 00:10:00,870 --> 00:10:03,309 但情况即将改变 242 00:10:03,309 --> 00:10:08,409 随着内华达州原超级工厂转型为特斯拉卡车工厂 243 00:10:08,409 --> 00:10:09,350 一旦产能提升 244 00:10:09,350 --> 00:10:12,828 该工厂计划年产约五万辆卡车 245 00:10:12,828 --> 00:10:14,428 重塑物流行业格局 246 00:10:14,428 --> 00:10:14,948 说实话 247 00:10:14,948 --> 00:10:15,308 你知道的 248 00:10:15,308 --> 00:10:16,469 这个听起来有点无聊 249 00:10:16,469 --> 00:10:20,480 但其实我对这款产品的最终表现很感兴趣 250 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,480 尤其是因为卡车运输纯粹是经济问题 251 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,960 外观不重要，零到六十英里加速也不重要 252 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,179 这纯粹是老派经济学 253 00:10:29,179 --> 00:10:31,700 而这也是华尔街视为变革性产品之一 254 00:10:31,700 --> 00:10:32,539 总共有十八 255 00:10:32,539 --> 00:10:34,259 美国有六百万家企业 256 00:10:34,259 --> 00:10:34,659 这些运营商 257 00:10:34,659 --> 00:10:35,220 一辆卡车 258 00:10:35,220 --> 00:10:35,809 是的 259 00:10:35,809 --> 00:10:39,870 总计十三万辆卡车，其中三万辆为半挂车 260 00:10:39,870 --> 00:10:43,379 因此很想知道这款产品的需求有多大 261 00:10:43,379 --> 00:10:45,519 如果他们能做好成本控制 262 00:10:45,519 --> 00:10:48,578 尤其是柴油价格保持高位 263 00:10:48,578 --> 00:10:50,119 或成变革性因素 264 00:10:50,119 --> 00:10:54,259 这让我们来到特斯拉投资者期待的第五大增长驱动力 265 00:10:54,259 --> 00:10:57,019 那就是他们的Terra Fab芯片制造项目 266 00:10:57,019 --> 00:10:58,419 该项目最近才宣布 267 00:10:58,419 --> 00:10:59,940 目前细节尚不明确 268 00:10:59,940 --> 00:11:03,879 计划在奥斯汀建设半导体制造综合体 269 00:11:03,879 --> 00:11:06,559 围绕特斯拉未来业务 270 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:07,080 自动驾驶出租车 271 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:07,440 Optimus AI训练与自主推理 272 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,909 都需要大量定制芯片 273 00:11:09,909 --> 00:11:13,090 因此不再完全依赖台积电或三星等外部供应商 274 00:11:13,090 --> 00:11:17,159 马斯克希望特斯拉掌控更多研发与制造环节 275 00:11:17,159 --> 00:11:23,220 我们仍在完善Terra Fab的细节 276 00:11:23,220 --> 00:11:26,090 特斯拉将在得州工厂建设研发晶圆厂 277 00:11:26,090 --> 00:11:29,950 预计这将是约30亿美元的计划 278 00:11:29,950 --> 00:11:34,639 每月可生产数千片晶圆 279 00:11:34,639 --> 00:11:37,539 但主要目的是测试新概念 280 00:11:37,539 --> 00:11:40,309 研发晶圆厂 281 00:11:40,309 --> 00:11:41,350 我们有一些改进芯片制造技术的想法 282 00:11:41,350 --> 00:11:44,950 并想测试一些新物理原理 283 00:11:44,950 --> 00:11:47,470 然后SpaceX将负责 284 00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:50,250 规模化生产的初期阶段 285 00:11:50,250 --> 00:11:53,309 这就是目前已知的进展 286 00:11:53,309 --> 00:11:55,379 因此这就是特斯拉未来的五大支柱 287 00:11:55,379 --> 00:11:58,500 这是马斯克在本季度财报中提到的 288 00:11:58,500 --> 00:12:01,259 所有这些项目潜力巨大 289 00:12:01,259 --> 00:12:03,259 但短期内尚未产生收入 290 00:12:03,259 --> 00:12:06,460 因此当前业绩对股价影响有限 291 00:12:06,460 --> 00:12:11,750 未来叙事越强 292 00:12:11,750 --> 00:12:13,590 当前估值越坚挺 293 00:12:13,590 --> 00:12:16,169 同时盈利下降 294 00:12:16,169 --> 00:12:17,769 也导致市盈率飙升至难以维持的水平 295 00:12:17,769 --> 00:12:23,149 但话说回来 296 00:12:23,149 --> 00:12:24,639 这也让特斯拉股东处境紧张 297 00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:27,759 因为股价已完全押注所有项目成功 298 00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:32,679 如果这些都未能顺利实现 299 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,320 随着这些项目逐步推进 300 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:36,379 特别是自动驾驶出租车 301 00:12:36,379 --> 00:12:39,309 全自动驾驶技术已接近成熟 302 00:12:39,309 --> 00:12:39,590 你知道的 303 00:12:39,590 --> 00:12:43,990 未来几年特斯拉股东可能会经历相当动荡的时期 304 00:12:43,990 --> 00:12:45,720 如果进展不完美 305 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,519 股价可能会频繁波动 306 00:12:47,519 --> 00:12:50,019 每季度都会根据新信息调整股价 307 00:12:50,019 --> 00:12:52,240 随着新数据的披露 308 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:53,399 可能不是今年 309 00:12:53,399 --> 00:12:55,779 但明年和后年肯定如此 310 00:12:55,779 --> 00:12:57,240 这有点像Model 3生产阶段 311 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:58,039 三阶段产能爬坡 312 00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:01,059 你们可能还记得特斯拉 313 00:13:01,059 --> 00:13:02,340 生产这款车用了更长时间 314 00:13:02,340 --> 00:13:04,080 因此相关收入也延迟释放 315 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,299 如果观察特斯拉股票从2017年 316 00:13:06,299 --> 00:13:07,769 2018年到2019年 317 00:13:07,769 --> 00:13:09,830 市场波动非常剧烈 318 00:13:09,830 --> 00:13:10,230 没错 319 00:13:10,230 --> 00:13:14,190 因为投资者不再相信马斯克的完美未来叙事 320 00:13:14,190 --> 00:13:18,789 现在有了真实财务数据作为依据 321 00:13:18,789 --> 00:13:21,990 这是否意味着特斯拉注定失败 322 00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:25,370 不意味着特斯拉股票稳赚不赔 323 00:13:25,370 --> 00:13:26,629 最终结果 324 00:13:26,629 --> 00:13:29,230 没人能确定完全取决于执行能力 325 00:13:29,230 --> 00:13:30,970 但若让我分析 326 00:13:30,970 --> 00:13:31,889 我猜测 327 00:13:31,889 --> 00:13:35,830 特斯拉未来两到三年将高度波动 328 00:13:35,830 --> 00:13:37,440 作为投资者 329 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,500 建议提前做好心理准备 330 00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:41,279 不过话说回来 331 00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:46,100 如果你想学习如何全面分析企业 332 00:13:46,100 --> 00:13:47,019 我采用的方法 333 00:13:47,019 --> 00:13:48,559 巴菲特采用的方法 334 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:49,960 我非常乐意分享 335 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,220 如果你预定了我的书 336 00:13:51,220 --> 00:13:53,399 《新钱策略》这本书将于 337 00:13:53,399 --> 00:13:54,039 5月12日出版 338 00:13:54,039 --> 00:13:57,759 首先感谢至今支持的各位 339 00:13:57,759 --> 00:13:58,879 这是一项巨大工程 340 00:13:58,879 --> 00:14:02,039 非常感谢大家的支持 341 00:14:02,039 --> 00:14:03,980 迫不及待想让大家阅读 342 00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:05,320 当然我有偏见 343 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,440 但确实认为这是一本优秀书籍 344 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:08,600 请务必阅读 345 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:09,559 如果你有能力 346 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,059 我将感激不尽 347 00:14:11,059 --> 00:14:13,309 详情见描述和置顶评论 348 00:14:13,309 --> 00:14:15,710 总之各位感谢观看再见 349 00:14:15,710 --> 00:14:16,029 我同意 350 00:14:16,029 --> 00:14:17,049 如果你喜欢这个视频 351 00:14:17,049 --> 00:14:20,220 说到这里，我们下次再见
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