【NaNa说美股】20260410还是美股魔幻！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月10号周五

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在经历了连续七天的暴力拉涨后

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市场在周末前露出了疲态

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进入观望模式

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盘前公布的CPI数据显示

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受油价飙升影响

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美国3月CPI同比大涨3.3%

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创近两年新高

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环比0.9%的增幅呢

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更是创2022年以来的新高

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汽油价格的创纪录上涨

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贡献了当月CPI涨幅的近34哈

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但是剔除掉食品和能源类别之后的核心指标呢

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显示通胀趋于稳定

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而且都低于市场的预期

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直接对冲了油价冲击带来的恐慌

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由于市场此前嗯

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已经为这个强劲通胀数据做好了准备

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所以今天略低于预期的数据

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给市场的担忧带来了一些缓解

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问题在于这种冲击到底是暂时性的

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还是更具持续性的嗯

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美联储无效喇叭尼克

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他说一个月的数据啊证明不了什么

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他们尚未反应伊朗战争的全部影响

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可能更多的能源影响

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包括机票价格

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运输价格的上涨还在前面

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就目前来看的话

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这个通胀仍处于高位

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而且具有粘息

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美联储有空间保持耐心

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数据公布之后呢

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市场压住

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美联储年内降息一次的概率略微有所上升

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美股股指期货集体走高

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但盘中小幅回落

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最后收市特拉股指涨跌不一

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标普云造指都小幅收跌

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纳指仍然小幅收涨

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下跌的股票数量要多于上涨的数量

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人们的注意力仍集中在这个周末的美伊谈判上

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川普表示对双方达成协议非常乐观

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但又警告说

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如果没能达成协议的话

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美国将会采取军事行动

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多艘战舰正重新装填弹药

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以防对话失败呃

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就又玩这种一边施压一边弹的路子啊

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大家都看累了

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伊朗副外长呢则表示

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各方已经达成共识

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伊朗的十点计划将作为谈判的基础

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其实如果觉得他们双方是鸡同鸭讲哈

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各自都觉得自己胜利一番

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但社长显然还是选择了相信这个和平

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目前市场的定价更倾向于

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达成更广泛的停火协议

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而不是冲突的继续升级

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油价呢维持在每桶100美元下方

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也为这种情绪提供了支撑

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国际油价本周录的近九个月来最大单周跌幅

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尽管霍尔木兹海峡

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目前通行量仍远远低于正常水平的10%

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但市场呢似乎已在本周末会谈前

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进入了一种偏乐观的均衡状态

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嗯当前市场定价计入霍尔木兹海峡运输

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将会在未来数月内较快恢复的预期

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包括5月份恢复大约一半正常流量

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6月份全面恢复

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能源市场现在已经降级为背景噪音

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只要油价后面不继续疯涨的话

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股市就默认地缘风险在减弱

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波动率指数VIX今天收盘了

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已经跌破了20的心理红线

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意味着市场恐慌情绪明显缓解

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仓位基本完成了重置

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整体波动性大幅下降

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此前由于避险而持有的大量现金

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正在逐步回流股市

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不过VIX回落也意味着期权保险开始变便宜了

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机构反而更倾向于在这个位置买入远期put

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来对冲潜在的这个嗯谈判破裂的突发风险

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标普500指数呢结束了前面七连阳走势

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今天日K收出一根小阴线

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从技术面来看

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当前日K已经过于偏离这条5日均线

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存在较强的均线修复需求

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这通常呢会通过横盘震荡或者快速回调

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来完成修复

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神奇九转指标已经运行到数字七

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一般要走到九才更接近阶段高点

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ISI已经进入了短线超卖区

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当时尚未达到极端水平

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这些信号并不意味着趋势马上就要逆转

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但是多头博弈的胜率正在下降呃

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就像你开车看到前方路口黄灯开始闪烁

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提醒风险逐步累积

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但是红灯尚未亮起

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下周可能就是多头冲刺的最后一个窗口嗯

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资金面上

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高盛预计未来一周

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CCTA将会买入大约450亿美元的美国股票

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这将是有史以来第二高的买入力度

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这会让期权做市商在6800~7000点

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这个区间的对冲压力呢达到顶峰

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推动指数陷入一场有算法驱动的机械性冲顶

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在这种不计成本的无脑的这个买盘推动之下啊

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标普500不排除宰下周三VX结算日

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或者下周5月度结算日呃

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到来之前被快速推升到6900~7000点区域

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而这正是这个摩根大通交易平台所预测的剧本

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然后这一波嘎空行情呢才会动能耗尽啊

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早先低位布局的资金借机兑现收益

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让CCTA来当这个最后的接盘侠

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所以散户的这个时候他是逢高卖出退的哈

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这时候就只有CCTA

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还有期权做市商的对冲买盘来这个进行推动

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不过即便后面指数出现回调

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下方的承接力依然存在

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因为有银行股领衔的美股Q1财报季即将开启

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华尔街五大行呢将会率先登场

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其中高盛下周一盘前打头阵

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摩根大通周二公布业季

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花齐眉

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赢摩根三类紧随其后

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与此同时

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台积电

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银行业作为经济的温度计

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它的表现呢将会直接为整个财报基定调

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德银预计银行整体业绩依然稳健甚至偏强

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同时摩根大通和美国银行有望上调或收紧

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全年净利息收入指引

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反映出贷款需求与利率环境的支撑

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不过呢从期权市场来看的话啊

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情绪却明显的偏谨慎

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除了高盛之外

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其余几大行的未平仓google比呢嗯普遍则高于一

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摩根三类

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甚至达到了1.4

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这显示资金在财报前集中对冲压注

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银行股季后下跌

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正是这种拥挤的看空

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反而意味着

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如果财报结果超预期了

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那反而就啊可能再次触发空头回补哈

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带来股价的快速反弹

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在宏观层面的分歧依然存在

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摩根大通CEO吉米哥在股东信中提到

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通胀加息风险

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地缘政治以及监管环境等多重不确定性

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但是整体对银行业前景仍保持乐观

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black coconer则泼出冷水哈

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认为市场对全年盈利预期过于乐观了

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当前华尔街分析师普遍预计

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标普500盈利增长大约16%

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如果实现的话

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将会是自2021年以来最强表现

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但是black cock警告

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市场可能低估了通胀粘性与油价

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长期高位运行的风险

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这些因素啊都可能会对企业盈利预期构成压制

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盘面上嗯

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AI与算力链条依旧是最强主线

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贯通性板块持续走强

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LITECU称

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来自美国超大规模云产商的资本开支

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正在加速扩张

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对光学组件的需求远超预期

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按照当前的趋势发展

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未来两个季度内

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公司到2028年的产能

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就可能会被提前预定一空嗯

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他还补充称

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AI基础设施建设仍处于高景气周期

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并且有望持续到至少5年嗯

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产业链上游的核心环节呢

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也同样交出了亮眼成绩

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台积电发布公告称

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一季度营收同比增长35%

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不仅超出市场预期

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而且也触及了此前指引的上限

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3月单月营收就创下历史新高

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环比和同比都大幅增长

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这说明即便在地缘政治扰动之下

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有英伟达和苹果等巨头驱动的

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AI芯片需求呢依然强劲

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整个半导体产业链的景气度仍在持续强化

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算力需求的爆发

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也正在向数据中心和云基础设施公司传导

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however股价今天又续涨了10.9%

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ONTOPICK与COVID达成了合作协议

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租用COVID的数据中心算力

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以支持cloud模型的部署

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随着AI模型训练和推理需求持续增长

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COVIV呢

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已经将多家头部模型开发商

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纳入了他的客户体系

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进一步巩固了他在AI算力租赁市场的地位

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这个二房东的地位越做越稳了哈

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API昨天股价季后下跌

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今天反弹

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公司2026财年第三财季

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营收同比增长139%

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净亏损大约1亿美元

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较上年同期大幅收窄

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都好于是残余期

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而且分析师整体看法也偏向积极

211
00:09:43,059 --> 00:09:46,009
公司订单执行进展基本符合预期

212
00:09:46,009 --> 00:09:49,750
目前呢正在等待超大规模客户的租约落地

213
00:09:49,750 --> 00:09:53,659
昨天呃股价下跌可能就纯粹是洗盘

214
00:09:53,659 --> 00:09:55,980
软件股失血不止哈

215
00:09:55,980 --> 00:10:00,149
全球信贷评分巨头FO的跌势明显

216
00:10:00,149 --> 00:10:03,590
股价从年初大约1860美元的高点

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00:10:03,590 --> 00:10:04,429
一路下滑

218
00:10:04,429 --> 00:10:05,659
目前已经腰斩

219
00:10:05,659 --> 00:10:09,279
而且始终运行在50日均线下方

220
00:10:09,279 --> 00:10:11,230
空头趋势非常明显

221
00:10:11,230 --> 00:10:14,950
下跌的核心原因来自监管与竞争压力

222
00:10:14,950 --> 00:10:17,759
公司目前呢正面临参议院调查

223
00:10:17,759 --> 00:10:21,980
重点针对公司在抵押贷款中使用的信用评分

224
00:10:21,980 --> 00:10:23,210
收费模式

225
00:10:23,210 --> 00:10:25,169
这个调查引发市场担忧

226
00:10:25,169 --> 00:10:27,830
就是信用评分的定价是否过高

227
00:10:27,830 --> 00:10:31,519
是否影响普通消费者的贷款可负担性呃

228
00:10:31,519 --> 00:10:33,440
进而脱离了股价表现

229
00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,659
还有来自vantage score

230
00:10:35,659 --> 00:10:37,440
日益激烈的竞争哈

231
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,589
也加剧了FEKO面临的挑战

232
00:10:39,589 --> 00:10:41,808
在三大信用局的支持之下

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00:10:41,808 --> 00:10:45,129
vantage corner正以显著较低的价格

234
00:10:45,129 --> 00:10:48,909
在抵押贷款市场积极推销哈的评分模型

235
00:10:48,909 --> 00:10:52,549
直接挑战了PICO历史上长期占据了主导地位

236
00:10:52,549 --> 00:10:53,769
以及盈利模式

237
00:10:53,769 --> 00:10:57,970
这场价格战可能导致PO的市场份额被蚕食

238
00:10:57,970 --> 00:10:59,730
以及利润率收债

239
00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:02,440
华尔街对他的态度也趋于谨慎

240
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,200
摩根大通已经将fecal

241
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,279
目标价从1825美元

242
00:11:06,279 --> 00:11:08,840
大幅下调到1325美元

243
00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,000
并且维持中性评级

244
00:11:15,039 --> 00:11:18,720
比如联邦住房金融局可能采取的进一步行动

245
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:19,799
整体来看哈

246
00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:22,820
当前美股市场的主线呢依然很清晰

247
00:11:22,820 --> 00:11:25,080
AI产业链全面开花

248
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:26,370
从光模块

249
00:11:26,370 --> 00:11:31,149
芯片制造到算力租赁都维持这个高景气

250
00:11:31,149 --> 00:11:33,470
就AI基础设施哈

251
00:11:33,470 --> 00:11:36,940
硬件呃全都得到资金扎堆

252
00:11:36,940 --> 00:11:38,120
但与此同时呢

253
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,179
个股层面的分化正在加剧

254
00:11:40,179 --> 00:11:44,159
资金开始更加注重业绩兑现与基本面的支撑

255
00:11:44,159 --> 00:11:46,730
而并非单纯的概念驱动行

256
00:11:46,730 --> 00:11:49,129
今天我们就简单说到这里

257
00:11:49,129 --> 00:11:51,129
那这个周末我们好好休息

258
00:11:51,129 --> 00:11:52,419
下次见拜拜

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