【Ross Cameron - Warrior Trading】日内交易：不要踩坑！最容易亏钱的5大致命错误

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在今天的节目中

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我将和你分享前五大原因

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为什么大多数交易员最终会亏损

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并非因为你不够渴望

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也不是因为你不够努力

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而是因为我们从一开始就注定失败

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当谈到市场交易时

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如果你跟随本能冲动

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几乎注定会亏损

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你的本能会是在下跌时卖出并恐慌，在上涨时追涨

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而在行情走高时盲目追涨

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而我们知道必须反其道而行

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我们需要在支撑位买入

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以明确的风险水平操作并在大幅上涨时卖出

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要持续盈利的唯一方法是找到途径

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克服直觉判断

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并具备纪律性和执行力遵循策略

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现在

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要相信这个策略有效

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必须经过回测验证

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当你在模拟盘交易或参考长期实盘数据

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或通过他人多年交易数据回测策略

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你就能理解

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好的

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这是一个有效策略

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但我必须严格遵循规则

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现在我将讲解前五大原因

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为什么大多数交易员会亏损

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让我们从第一点开始

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首要失败原因是对自身技能的高估

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认为自己比实际水平更高

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而我们很多人都会这样做

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这是一种认知偏差，认为自己表现极佳

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初入交易时总觉得自己技能超群

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或许你看过几段YouTube视频

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或许尝试过几次平台演示

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你进入交易

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并意识到按按钮其实很简单

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免费经纪商

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他们希望你频繁交易

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因为交易次数越多

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他们赚得越多

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所以不会限制你的交易

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尽管这对我们的长期交易不利

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应专注于高质量交易机会

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事实上他们会反其道而行

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鼓励你大量交易

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因此他们让交易变得异常简单

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但当你高估了自己的能力

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这到底是什么样子的

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看起来你自信满满地交易

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尽管实际上你并不真正了解自己在做什么

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我当时就是这样做的

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在我刚开始学习时

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我做不到

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我实在不好意思承认

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但当我刚开始交易时

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我会将全部账户资金投入一个仓位

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我频繁进行大额交易

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我会买入两万股

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三十万股我会买入所有能承受的股票

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我要告诉你这绝对会招致灾难

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你可能已经知道这一点

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也许但我的直觉是

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我的直觉告诉我

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我想扩大账户规模

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我如此坚信这只股票会成功，便将全部资金投入其中

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所以你应该这样做

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你必须记住六个月后的自己会更擅长大仓位交易

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比现在的你更有能力处理大股数

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毫无疑问

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一年后的你甚至会更擅长大仓位交易

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你现在必须愿意为技能不足付出代价

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当我提到低于技能水平时

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我真正想说的是技能与风险之间的差距

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如果你的技能相对较低

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因为你是新手交易者

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假设你现在处于

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你知道的

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初级水平

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仅为了建立一个体系

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而在风险方面

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你应该用百股左右进行交易

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但我当时却处于初级水平

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却突然开始交易一万、两万、三万股

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没错

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这就是技能与风险的错配

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这种错配的根源在于我高估了自己的能力

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我认为自己能胜任大仓位交易

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看到别人赚大钱

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我也想赚大钱

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所以恐惧错失机会

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害怕错过机会，我的理性大脑

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却说

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尽管你只有两个月的交易经验

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还是下注大仓位买入这只股票吧

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市场这么火热

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你会没事的

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但在数周数月后结果会如何

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你可能会有一次或两次幸运的初学者交易

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你知道的

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新手交易者获胜

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新手运气确实很宝贵

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但最终在数周数月后这不会持续获利

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结果会是

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事实上即将发生的情况是

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你的账户将呈现这样的走势

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你开始进行交易

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或许你确实有一点新手运气

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但最终新手运气会耗尽

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你会有一笔交易亏损

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你会陷入恐慌

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你会持仓过久

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你遭受巨大亏损

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这笔巨额亏损抵消了新手阶段的所有收益

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有多少人经历过这种情况

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随后可能有一段盘整行情

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你可能会

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你知道的

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横盘整理

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绿色交易日

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你正在试图弄清楚发生了什么

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然后突然

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再次发生

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突然你的账户开始亏损

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现实是很多人放弃交易

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并非因为他们无法成为成功交易者

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而是因为他们曾一度陷入困境

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事实上就在一周前我在战士交易社群看到一位成员

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他表示2022年年初开始交易

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应该是2021年

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2022年

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类似这样的时间

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他开始交易

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随即获得了一点新手运气

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2022年初市场行情较好

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随后开始亏损

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经历了长期回撤

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现在情况好转了

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他们已完全回本至此

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目前他们就处于这个位置

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他说我决定停止交易了

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因为这行不通

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我已坚持五年

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差不多了却收益寥寥

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我说

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等等

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如果换个角度看待

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仅仅通过这个镜头

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就在过去的十八个月里

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在我看来确实如此

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你知道你在做什么

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他说我愿意

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但到目前为止我赚到的总金额

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我的意思是

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我不记得他具体提取了多少

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但他提取的总金额

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他赚取的总金额

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他觉得这不足以继续下去

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我觉得这真的很可惜

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因为这里是一个交易员

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我认为他本可以非常成功

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事实上

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在过去的十八个月期间

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他们确实取得了成功

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每天赚五十美元和五百美元的区别

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这是十倍差距

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这是很大差异

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没错五百美元每天

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相当于年收入十万美元

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这已是六位数薪资

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显然值得继续专注每天五十美元交易

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每年一万不值一提

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不值得继续

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五十美元和五百美元的区别在哪

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是扩大仓位规模

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暂且假设

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让我们假设

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这位交易员过去一年使用了百股仓位

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使用较小规模且回撤可控

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恢复情况也很正常

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如果他们将仓位提升到千股

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如果他们增至万股

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突然间就是十倍差距

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就是十倍差距

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现在你可以说

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每天五千元

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而不是五

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而不是五百或五十

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现在变成

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需要注意的是利润不能简单线性增长

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随着仓位扩大

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存在边际效益递减点

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但确实可以从百股规模逐步扩大

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在出现递减效应前能大幅提升

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在此案例中

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这位交易员低估了自己的能力

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并忽视了已取得的重大进展

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因为在过去五年的总体表现中，他们并没有赚到自己想要的那么多

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我明白这个情况

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但大多数新手交易者的现实是，他们入场时的技能水平只有1级

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并且使用与技能水平不匹配的持仓规模进行交易

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这与你的实际能力严重不符

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问题在于你会经历剧烈波动

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我见过太多交易者入场后

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单日盈利七千五百美元

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在我们的聊天室里，会员时长会显示徽章

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根据会员时长授予不同徽章

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当我看到新会员发布七千五百美元的盈利日

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我总是会提醒谨慎

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你正在使用过大的仓位规模

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为你取得的胜利感到高兴

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但大概率是新手运气

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因为你频繁开立十万股头寸

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其中某个头寸可能暴跌一美元

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你会像撞见车灯的鹿一样

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陷入慌乱

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完全不知所措

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下一秒就会犹豫不决

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你知道的

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股价跌至三到四美元

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亏损三四十万美元

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是的

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那七千五百美元的首胜很诱人

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但很快就会消失

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建议你使用更小的持仓规模

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甚至比你认为的更小

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尽管这会感觉违背直觉

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通过缩小仓位规模

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你能专注识别模式

231
00:08:57,779 --> 00:09:00,279
专注交易优质股票

232
00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:02,980
不会被盈亏情绪过度影响

233
00:09:02,980 --> 00:09:06,159
相比那些仓位过大导致情绪波动的交易者

234
00:09:06,159 --> 00:09:09,679
他们处于当前水平却使用过大仓位

235
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:10,659
导致频繁亏损

236
00:09:10,659 --> 00:09:12,340
我现在处于这样的状态

237
00:09:12,340 --> 00:09:15,159
偶尔我会开仓五万股

238
00:09:15,159 --> 00:09:16,759
七万五万股

239
00:09:16,759 --> 00:09:18,500
甚至一百万股

240
00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:20,799
因为我有长期经验

241
00:09:20,799 --> 00:09:21,860
如果你也在交易

242
00:09:21,860 --> 00:09:24,049
即使使用两万股

243
00:09:24,049 --> 00:09:28,409
十万股大概率还是过大

244
00:09:28,409 --> 00:09:33,349
收益水平直接反映技能水平

245
00:09:33,349 --> 00:09:37,038
但需要时间精进技能

246
00:09:37,038 --> 00:09:41,239
需要时间培养理性直觉

247
00:09:41,239 --> 00:09:43,798
而非依赖情绪冲动

248
00:09:43,798 --> 00:09:48,860
而是基于统计数据判断股票类型

249
00:09:48,860 --> 00:09:50,940
你每天的交易时间能赚到最多的钱

250
00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:51,919
我赚的钱最多

251
00:09:51,919 --> 00:09:52,259
我是说

252
00:09:52,259 --> 00:09:56,659
我始终在交易符合我选股五要素的股票

253
00:09:56,659 --> 00:09:59,029
因为我清楚这些就是能赚钱的股票类型

254
00:09:59,029 --> 00:10:00,110
我赚最多钱的地方

255
00:10:00,110 --> 00:10:00,870
所以每天

256
00:10:00,870 --> 00:10:02,799
当我打开扫描器时

257
00:10:02,799 --> 00:10:04,259
这不是猜测

258
00:10:04,259 --> 00:10:04,639
哦

259
00:10:04,639 --> 00:10:06,860
这可能是我应该交易的股票类型

260
00:10:06,860 --> 00:10:12,730
这是基于这些扫描器已整合了我的全部交易历史

261
00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:16,049
现在开始在市场中寻找这类股票

262
00:10:16,049 --> 00:10:18,210
我赚最多钱的股票

263
00:10:18,210 --> 00:10:22,259
因此我的交易方式变得相当枯燥

264
00:10:22,259 --> 00:10:24,559
因为这不关乎

265
00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,019
那些大赚特赚或疯狂操作

266
00:10:27,019 --> 00:10:33,419
只需每天按策略步骤清单执行

267
00:10:33,419 --> 00:10:36,269
这需要很强的自律

268
00:10:36,269 --> 00:10:36,830
所以

269
00:10:36,830 --> 00:10:41,629
首要失败原因就是高估自身能力

270
00:10:41,629 --> 00:10:44,289
与实际水平不符

271
00:10:44,289 --> 00:10:46,070
并过度加仓

272
00:10:46,070 --> 00:10:46,769
承担过多风险

273
00:10:46,769 --> 00:10:49,169
在交易中持有过多股票

274
00:10:49,169 --> 00:10:50,250
第二点

275
00:10:50,250 --> 00:10:57,129
第二大失败原因是未识别市场环境

276
00:10:57,129 --> 00:10:58,789
当前交易的市场

277
00:10:58,789 --> 00:10:59,509
这是

278
00:10:59,509 --> 00:11:02,419
许多交易者现在面临的难题

279
00:11:02,419 --> 00:11:05,169
我们目前处于市场冷热交替阶段

280
00:11:05,169 --> 00:11:08,809
有时会有股票单日暴涨700-800%

281
00:11:08,809 --> 00:11:10,590
出现大量优质行情

282
00:11:10,590 --> 00:11:12,450
但次日便毫无动静

283
00:11:12,450 --> 00:11:13,350
完全无交易机会

284
00:11:13,350 --> 00:11:14,710
这非常困难

285
00:11:14,710 --> 00:11:17,590
你可能在错误时机加码激进操作

286
00:11:17,590 --> 00:11:18,649
却无股票可交易

287
00:11:18,649 --> 00:11:19,750
你会亏损

288
00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:20,429
另一方面

289
00:11:20,429 --> 00:11:21,309
如果交易不足

290
00:11:21,309 --> 00:11:22,190
当市场火热时

291
00:11:22,190 --> 00:11:26,339
无法充分把握机会

292
00:11:26,379 --> 00:11:28,139
这就是我的应对方式

293
00:11:28,139 --> 00:11:31,259
这项技能完全在我们掌控之中

294
00:11:31,259 --> 00:11:32,159
我们可以控制

295
00:11:32,159 --> 00:11:34,159
新技能的积累程度

296
00:11:34,159 --> 00:11:35,818
练习的频率

297
00:11:35,818 --> 00:11:38,599
市场状况是外部变量

298
00:11:38,599 --> 00:11:40,499
完全超出我们的控制范围

299
00:11:40,499 --> 00:11:41,719
市场可能会非常火热

300
00:11:41,719 --> 00:11:45,179
市场可能非常冷清，我们必须现在适应

301
00:11:45,179 --> 00:11:46,899
让许多交易者感到沮丧的是

302
00:11:46,899 --> 00:11:51,929
同样的策略在两天内表现可能截然不同

303
00:11:51,929 --> 00:11:52,789
当市场火热时

304
00:11:52,789 --> 00:11:55,129
当天可能出现大幅盈利

305
00:11:55,129 --> 00:11:56,029
市场冷清时

306
00:11:56,029 --> 00:11:57,389
盈利可能非常微小

307
00:11:57,389 --> 00:12:00,629
甚至可能出现红色交易日

308
00:12:00,950 --> 00:12:03,210
如何在一天开始时判断

309
00:12:03,210 --> 00:12:06,109
当前市场处于何种状态

310
00:12:06,109 --> 00:12:08,908
最终有几个不同的方法可以尝试

311
00:12:08,908 --> 00:12:13,710
但最佳方式之一是慢慢试探

312
00:12:13,710 --> 00:12:15,580
在每日交易开始时

313
00:12:15,580 --> 00:12:18,059
不要全仓入场

314
00:12:18,059 --> 00:12:19,919
根据你的全仓标准

315
00:12:19,919 --> 00:12:21,610
在第一笔交易时

316
00:12:21,610 --> 00:12:26,960
我喜欢在第一笔交易中建立起始仓位

317
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,120
如果这笔交易顺利

318
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:30,340
我立即锁定利润

319
00:12:30,340 --> 00:12:32,589
现在当天已有一定缓冲空间

320
00:12:32,589 --> 00:12:35,548
在好日子里会有大量机会

321
00:12:35,548 --> 00:12:38,659
但坏日子里机会极少

322
00:12:38,659 --> 00:12:42,600
在坏日子里首笔起始仓位交易失败

323
00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:44,429
我止损离场

324
00:12:44,429 --> 00:12:45,909
但亏损很小

325
00:12:45,909 --> 00:12:49,129
立即发出警示信号

326
00:12:49,129 --> 00:12:49,850
现在我知道

327
00:12:49,850 --> 00:12:50,599
糟糕了

328
00:12:50,599 --> 00:12:51,619
这笔首笔交易

329
00:12:51,619 --> 00:12:53,139
因为我交易的所有股票

330
00:12:53,139 --> 00:12:54,578
以及所有子账户

331
00:12:54,578 --> 00:12:56,519
都符合我的五项选股原则

332
00:12:56,519 --> 00:12:59,490
并符合我依赖的蜡烛图模式

333
00:12:59,490 --> 00:13:03,730
如果已知在好日子里有效的模式

334
00:13:03,730 --> 00:13:05,750
在好市场中不奏效

335
00:13:05,750 --> 00:13:09,639
这立即表明当前市场类型

336
00:13:09,639 --> 00:13:09,919
现在

337
00:13:09,919 --> 00:13:13,200
还有一些其他方法可评估市场强度

338
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,679
其中之一是每日查看我们的涨幅榜

339
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,480
无论使用我的扫描器还是其他平台工具

340
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:20,419
其实并不重要

341
00:13:20,419 --> 00:13:22,690
但当你查看这些扫描器时

342
00:13:22,690 --> 00:13:26,409
要观察有多少股票涨幅超过100%

343
00:13:26,409 --> 00:13:27,649
目前有一只股票

344
00:13:27,649 --> 00:13:29,210
涨幅达1200%

345
00:13:29,210 --> 00:13:30,879
但成交量极低

346
00:13:30,879 --> 00:13:34,980
这通常是股票完成反向拆分

347
00:13:34,980 --> 00:13:37,879
从OTC市场转板

348
00:13:37,879 --> 00:13:40,720
或进行简单调整等情况所致

349
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,460
并且错误显示上涨了百分之一千二

350
00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:46,340
所以第二大涨幅股

351
00:13:46,340 --> 00:13:48,940
但成交量达七千万股的是Cox公司

352
00:13:48,940 --> 00:13:50,500
上涨了百分之七十九

353
00:13:50,500 --> 00:13:53,850
因此今天市场上没有股票

354
00:13:53,850 --> 00:14:01,309
单日上涨超百分之一百，表明市场现在稍显冷清

355
00:14:01,309 --> 00:14:02,570
这就是我们身处的市场

356
00:14:02,570 --> 00:14:04,889
需要股票上涨超百分之一百才能引起兴奋

357
00:14:04,889 --> 00:14:07,279
当我们有股票上涨超百分之一百时

358
00:14:07,279 --> 00:14:09,879
就能看到真正的大幅波动

359
00:14:09,879 --> 00:14:12,339
今天早些时候确实有行情波动

360
00:14:12,339 --> 00:14:13,678
这也是有帮助的

361
00:14:13,678 --> 00:14:15,778
观察那些大幅波动的股票总和

362
00:14:15,778 --> 00:14:19,679
这里有一只从约两美元涨到六美元

363
00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:21,379
真是强劲的走势

364
00:14:21,379 --> 00:14:23,740
但未能持续

365
00:14:23,740 --> 00:14:27,389
事实上公司甚至没有利好消息支撑

366
00:14:27,389 --> 00:14:29,789
当我们看到这种情况时

367
00:14:29,789 --> 00:14:32,730
出现快速上涨后随即回落

368
00:14:32,730 --> 00:14:34,879
这也是需要注意的现象

369
00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:39,139
每天早晨可以检查市场动态

370
00:14:39,139 --> 00:14:41,059
查看涨幅前列的股票

371
00:14:41,059 --> 00:14:44,710
它们涨幅多少并观察今日触发扫描的股票

372
00:14:44,710 --> 00:14:46,350
关注领涨股

373
00:14:46,350 --> 00:14:47,570
是否大幅拉升

374
00:14:47,570 --> 00:14:49,799
随后大幅回落

375
00:14:49,799 --> 00:14:51,879
因为这说明市场

376
00:14:51,879 --> 00:14:53,740
虽然略显浮躁

377
00:14:53,740 --> 00:14:54,960
因为我们看到大幅波动

378
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,230
但未能持续走强

379
00:14:57,230 --> 00:15:01,070
即使你的技术非常娴熟

380
00:15:01,070 --> 00:15:05,809
若无法准确判断当前市场状态

381
00:15:05,809 --> 00:15:06,929
仍会失败

382
00:15:06,929 --> 00:15:08,049
会遇到问题

383
00:15:08,049 --> 00:15:09,470
因为你将会

384
00:15:09,470 --> 00:15:10,870
在市场不建议时承担大量风险

385
00:15:10,870 --> 00:15:13,250
在行情不佳的日子里过度交易

386
00:15:13,250 --> 00:15:14,190
在毫无价值的日子里过度操作

387
00:15:14,190 --> 00:15:16,139
在行情糟糕的日子里

388
00:15:16,139 --> 00:15:17,559
而在行情火爆时

389
00:15:17,559 --> 00:15:18,759
可能交易不足

390
00:15:18,759 --> 00:15:20,019
可能进行几次交易

391
00:15:20,019 --> 00:15:21,549
获利后便结束一天

392
00:15:21,549 --> 00:15:23,350
因此有一本书

393
00:15:23,350 --> 00:15:24,570
我推荐几本书

394
00:15:24,570 --> 00:15:26,409
我将在白板上写下

395
00:15:26,409 --> 00:15:30,188
这两本书《思考，快与慢》和《何时离开》

396
00:15:30,188 --> 00:15:31,028
《何时离开》讲的是知进退

397
00:15:31,028 --> 00:15:32,989
《思考，快与慢》涉及理性决策

398
00:15:32,989 --> 00:15:35,629
在信息不全时做出明智选择，这与交易很像

399
00:15:35,629 --> 00:15:36,469
这确实是真的

400
00:15:36,469 --> 00:15:39,210
这是一本值得阅读的绝佳书籍

401
00:15:39,210 --> 00:15:41,970
当考虑风险控制时

402
00:15:41,970 --> 00:15:43,029
这确实是一本好书

403
00:15:43,029 --> 00:15:44,009
当涉及到认知判断

404
00:15:44,009 --> 00:15:45,190
何时选择退出

405
00:15:45,190 --> 00:15:47,149
如果你过早离开

406
00:15:47,149 --> 00:15:48,669
在任何一天

407
00:15:48,669 --> 00:15:50,470
你正在错失收益

408
00:15:50,470 --> 00:15:51,309
另一方面

409
00:15:51,309 --> 00:15:52,710
如果你留得太久

410
00:15:52,710 --> 00:15:54,309
你正在放弃利润

411
00:15:54,309 --> 00:16:00,470
因此必须准确评估当前市场强度

412
00:16:00,470 --> 00:16:03,549
并做出相应反应

413
00:16:03,549 --> 00:16:06,289
这需要彻底接纳

414
00:16:06,289 --> 00:16:10,710
必须接受市场完全独立于你

415
00:16:10,710 --> 00:16:12,049
我对此毫无控制

416
00:16:12,049 --> 00:16:13,899
如果是好日子太棒了

417
00:16:13,899 --> 00:16:15,059
我会做出反应

418
00:16:15,059 --> 00:16:16,159
如果是坏日子

419
00:16:16,159 --> 00:16:16,559
好吧

420
00:16:16,559 --> 00:16:17,960
我现在要应对这种情况

421
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:19,820
想象有人去冲浪

422
00:16:19,820 --> 00:16:22,289
无论你想到的冲浪地点

423
00:16:22,289 --> 00:16:22,629
夏威夷

424
00:16:22,629 --> 00:16:24,269
不管你想去哪里

425
00:16:24,269 --> 00:16:25,190
你走出岸边

426
00:16:25,190 --> 00:16:28,830
观察海洋假设风平浪静

427
00:16:28,830 --> 00:16:31,250
完全没有波浪

428
00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:31,950
嗯

429
00:16:31,950 --> 00:16:34,129
这预示了今天的状况

430
00:16:34,129 --> 00:16:35,750
今天不会有浪可冲

431
00:16:35,750 --> 00:16:37,860
不如找其他事情做

432
00:16:37,860 --> 00:16:38,860
另一方面

433
00:16:38,860 --> 00:16:41,139
你冲入海中发现巨浪

434
00:16:41,139 --> 00:16:42,220
看起来非常完美

435
00:16:42,220 --> 00:16:45,899
第三种情况你冲入海中

436
00:16:45,899 --> 00:16:46,620
台风来袭

437
00:16:46,620 --> 00:16:48,039
遭遇巨大风暴

438
00:16:48,039 --> 00:16:48,460
啊

439
00:16:48,460 --> 00:16:49,919
这同样风险极高

440
00:16:49,919 --> 00:16:51,139
就是这样

441
00:16:51,139 --> 00:16:51,720
现在就是关键

442
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,440
视觉上非常直观

443
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:55,779
观察海洋状态

444
00:16:55,779 --> 00:16:57,340
你眼前就能看到

445
00:16:57,340 --> 00:17:04,058
但解读市场状态对许多交易者来说却异常困难

446
00:17:04,058 --> 00:17:07,750
我认为这困难源于固执

447
00:17:07,750 --> 00:17:12,450
困难在于局势可能从平静突然

448
00:17:12,450 --> 00:17:13,869
股票大幅波动

449
00:17:13,869 --> 00:17:15,210
你有一个绝佳的机会

450
00:17:15,210 --> 00:17:16,630
这确实如此

451
00:17:16,630 --> 00:17:22,859
但事情会从毫无波动突然变成全年的最佳交易吗

452
00:17:22,859 --> 00:17:24,920
通常不会

453
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,180
如果你要做出全年的最佳交易

454
00:17:27,180 --> 00:17:30,109
最佳交易往往出现在中间阶段

455
00:17:30,109 --> 00:17:32,730
你一直在看到可预测的突破行情

456
00:17:32,730 --> 00:17:34,089
你会充满信心

457
00:17:34,089 --> 00:17:37,809
不断加大仓位直到最终

458
00:17:37,809 --> 00:17:39,710
最终迎来全年的最佳交易

459
00:17:39,710 --> 00:17:41,940
这通常是发展的过程

460
00:17:41,940 --> 00:17:44,220
它不会凭空出现

461
00:17:44,220 --> 00:17:45,700
也不会在某一天突然发生

462
00:17:45,700 --> 00:17:46,940
这完全疯狂

463
00:17:46,940 --> 00:17:48,690
你无法信任任何信号

464
00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:51,549
这是我一直在思考的问题

465
00:17:51,549 --> 00:17:53,289
我有个不错的预感

466
00:17:53,289 --> 00:17:56,138
市场在未来几个月会改善

467
00:17:56,138 --> 00:17:57,638
周期性规律通常如此

468
00:17:57,638 --> 00:18:00,119
我们即将迎来重大催化剂

469
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:01,380
所以我告诉自己

470
00:18:01,380 --> 00:18:02,900
能否耐心等待时机

471
00:18:02,900 --> 00:18:03,960
能否保持耐心

472
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:05,339
能否坚持付出

473
00:18:05,339 --> 00:18:06,720
能否熬过这段时期

474
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,779
能否记住六周后

475
00:18:08,779 --> 00:18:09,599
也就是一个月

476
00:18:09,599 --> 00:18:10,200
六周时间

477
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,329
我们可能会看到更多活跃行情

478
00:18:13,329 --> 00:18:15,450
只需度过这个阶段

479
00:18:15,450 --> 00:18:20,339
只需生存下来

480
00:18:20,339 --> 00:18:23,819
生存越久越有利

481
00:18:23,819 --> 00:18:25,940
保持资金安全

482
00:18:25,940 --> 00:18:30,529
你会逐渐积累技能提升直觉

483
00:18:30,529 --> 00:18:32,490
在市场中停留的时间越长

484
00:18:32,490 --> 00:18:38,039
这也是不贸然重仓交易的理由

485
00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:40,799
然后六周内爆仓

486
00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:44,108
六周时间不足以积累

487
00:18:44,108 --> 00:18:47,009
我今天的这种专业判断

488
00:18:47,009 --> 00:18:49,220
我已积累多年

489
00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:52,779
即使市场收益不高

490
00:18:52,779 --> 00:18:55,920
但每天都在提升技能

491
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,679
积累更多经验

492
00:18:57,679 --> 00:19:00,558
最终会受益

493
00:19:00,558 --> 00:19:04,469
必须把交易当作马拉松

494
00:19:04,469 --> 00:19:07,299
而非短跑第三点

495
00:19:07,299 --> 00:19:12,990
第三大失败原因是缺乏纪律

496
00:19:12,990 --> 00:19:15,650
要有小仓位交易的纪律

497
00:19:24,269 --> 00:19:28,179
你想要进入的市场需要自律

498
00:19:28,179 --> 00:19:32,699
自律无疑是新手交易者面临的最大挑战之一

499
00:19:32,699 --> 00:19:35,799
即使是经验更丰富的交易者也会面临这个挑战

500
00:19:35,799 --> 00:19:39,319
因为自律不像骑自行车那样

501
00:19:39,319 --> 00:19:40,279
一旦掌握就永远掌握

502
00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:43,460
自律只能维持一段时间

503
00:19:43,460 --> 00:19:45,559
然后可能会逐渐消失

504
00:19:45,559 --> 00:19:50,289
必须像锻炼肌肉一样持续练习

505
00:19:50,289 --> 00:19:52,369
所以你知道如果每天锻炼

506
00:19:52,369 --> 00:19:55,099
你可以看出我显然每天都锻炼

507
00:19:55,099 --> 00:19:56,220
你会增强肌肉

508
00:19:56,220 --> 00:19:57,220
你会增强肌肉

509
00:19:57,220 --> 00:19:58,839
停止锻炼六个月

510
00:19:58,839 --> 00:20:00,019
你会变得有些懈怠

511
00:20:00,019 --> 00:20:01,140
你的手臂看起来很棒

512
00:20:01,140 --> 00:20:02,599
我不需要每天锻炼

513
00:20:02,599 --> 00:20:04,440
然后一切开始出现问题

514
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:05,480
你回到健身房

515
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:05,839
哦

516
00:20:05,839 --> 00:20:07,039
你做不到

517
00:20:07,039 --> 00:20:07,660
或者

518
00:20:07,660 --> 00:20:08,509
或者更糟

519
00:20:08,509 --> 00:20:09,009
你知道的

520
00:20:09,009 --> 00:20:10,309
假设你爆了胎

521
00:20:10,309 --> 00:20:11,289
你需要换轮胎

522
00:20:11,289 --> 00:20:13,269
现在你的肌肉严重退化

523
00:20:13,269 --> 00:20:14,509
甚至换不了轮胎

524
00:20:14,509 --> 00:20:15,630
哦我太尴尬了

525
00:20:15,630 --> 00:20:17,740
我连自己换胎都不会

526
00:20:17,740 --> 00:20:18,740
当你需要的时候

527
00:20:18,740 --> 00:20:20,500
它不再为你所用

528
00:20:20,500 --> 00:20:22,319
这正是自律的有趣之处

529
00:20:22,319 --> 00:20:24,420
当市场非常火热时

530
00:20:24,420 --> 00:20:27,700
通常可以表现得不那么自律却仍能获利

531
00:20:27,700 --> 00:20:30,940
因为一切似乎都在不断上涨

532
00:20:30,940 --> 00:20:35,109
牛市中顺风顺水，所有船只都能受益

533
00:20:35,109 --> 00:20:37,250
但当形势突然变得艰难

534
00:20:37,250 --> 00:20:39,638
需要刹车减速

535
00:20:39,638 --> 00:20:42,919
但从长期顺利的时期

536
00:20:42,919 --> 00:20:44,278
你会变得有些懈怠

537
00:20:44,278 --> 00:20:45,539
你变得有些松懈

538
00:20:45,539 --> 00:20:49,299
无需继续强化自律这根肌肉

539
00:20:49,299 --> 00:20:50,839
而很可能你没有

540
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:53,440
这意味着当形势最终放缓

541
00:20:53,759 --> 00:20:55,180
你可能开始失控

542
00:20:55,180 --> 00:20:57,660
我见过许多交易者经历这种情况

543
00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:01,579
在火热市场中会有

544
00:21:01,579 --> 00:21:01,980
你知道的

545
00:21:01,980 --> 00:21:02,700
不错的利润

546
00:21:02,700 --> 00:21:03,619
一点回撤

547
00:21:03,619 --> 00:21:04,319
可观利润

548
00:21:04,319 --> 00:21:07,029
然后突然一切开始变慢

549
00:21:07,638 --> 00:21:08,679
你不会

550
00:21:08,679 --> 00:21:10,278
你没有准备好

551
00:21:10,278 --> 00:21:13,259
你知道第一次回撤来临时你会想

552
00:21:13,259 --> 00:21:13,598
好的

553
00:21:13,598 --> 00:21:14,759
我很快就能回本

554
00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:17,170
我要加大仓位

555
00:21:17,170 --> 00:21:17,670
等等

556
00:21:17,670 --> 00:21:20,650
这不是在提醒你第二阶段的状况吗

557
00:21:20,650 --> 00:21:24,049
整个市场不再适合你的策略

558
00:21:24,049 --> 00:21:25,269
当时在这里

559
00:21:25,269 --> 00:21:28,789
这难道不是该减仓的时候吗

560
00:21:28,789 --> 00:21:29,269
是的

561
00:21:29,269 --> 00:21:30,890
正是该减仓的时候

562
00:21:30,890 --> 00:21:33,309
但情绪却在告诉你相反

563
00:21:33,309 --> 00:21:34,809
继续加码

564
00:21:34,809 --> 00:21:37,929
这会加速亏损速度

565
00:21:37,929 --> 00:21:40,608
然后你会陷入大幅亏损

566
00:21:40,608 --> 00:21:41,588
情绪失控

567
00:21:41,588 --> 00:21:42,828
我刚回本了

568
00:21:42,828 --> 00:21:45,169
你知道六个月的进展全没了

569
00:21:45,599 --> 00:21:46,200
我做不到

570
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:47,579
我甚至不知道该怎么办

571
00:21:47,579 --> 00:21:49,680
只能孤注一掷

572
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,819
然后希望立刻反弹

573
00:21:51,819 --> 00:21:55,240
但你觉得这种情况多常见吗

574
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:56,079
几乎从不发生

575
00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:57,160
就像中彩票

576
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,700
几乎从不发生

577
00:21:59,700 --> 00:22:02,059
当你开始孤注一掷

578
00:22:02,059 --> 00:22:03,299
绝地反击

579
00:22:03,299 --> 00:22:05,240
买彩票式交易

580
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,339
这时就会陷入恶性循环

581
00:22:07,339 --> 00:22:08,519
一路下跌

582
00:22:08,519 --> 00:22:11,019
这过程令人恐惧

583
00:22:11,019 --> 00:22:12,619
作为交易者曾有过

584
00:22:12,619 --> 00:22:13,579
六个月

585
00:22:13,579 --> 00:22:14,500
一年十二个月

586
00:22:14,500 --> 00:22:15,650
持续进步

587
00:22:15,650 --> 00:22:17,789
突然一切崩盘

588
00:22:17,789 --> 00:22:20,839
你的技能曾在这里

589
00:22:20,839 --> 00:22:22,079
但市场变了

590
00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:23,240
市场变了

591
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,819
而你失去了第三要素

592
00:22:25,819 --> 00:22:26,799
纪律性

593
00:22:26,799 --> 00:22:30,740
缺乏应对市场变化的纪律

594
00:22:30,740 --> 00:22:33,200
我常说我的最大挑战

595
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,099
作为新手是学会及时收手

596
00:22:36,099 --> 00:22:37,500
现在我在这方面进步了

597
00:22:37,500 --> 00:22:38,440
随着我年龄的增长

598
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,549
我渐渐发现这似乎

599
00:22:40,549 --> 00:22:43,690
对我来说更容易选择放弃并顺应市场

600
00:22:43,690 --> 00:22:44,269
然后只是说

601
00:22:44,269 --> 00:22:44,849
哦不

602
00:22:44,849 --> 00:22:45,849
我不想再对抗了

603
00:22:45,849 --> 00:22:46,880
甚至不去尝试

604
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,380
因为我以前经历过

605
00:22:48,380 --> 00:22:49,640
当我试图反抗时

606
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:50,680
只会被狠狠击倒

607
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,299
亏损反而更大

608
00:22:52,299 --> 00:22:55,500
所以我更愿意在风暴中稳住阵脚

609
00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:56,359
然后说好吧

610
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,299
我已经受过一些打击

611
00:22:58,299 --> 00:23:00,039
没必要让情况更糟

612
00:23:00,039 --> 00:23:01,440
我只需耐心等待

613
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,039
近年来我有更多不交易的日子

614
00:23:06,039 --> 00:23:08,259
我只是说不不做

615
00:23:08,259 --> 00:23:11,589
而过去我会不断出现并奋力挣扎

616
00:23:11,589 --> 00:23:12,490
然后被击倒

617
00:23:12,490 --> 00:23:13,890
被打倒又受挫

618
00:23:13,890 --> 00:23:15,890
却一无所获

619
00:23:15,890 --> 00:23:17,009
我会感到气馁

620
00:23:17,009 --> 00:23:18,559
沮丧又愤怒

621
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:21,799
所有这些都会让我交易时更情绪化

622
00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:26,279
只会进一步加剧亏损

623
00:23:26,559 --> 00:23:27,640
所以冷静下来

624
00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:29,720
保持纪律

625
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,900
如果这意味着培养冥想习惯

626
00:23:32,900 --> 00:23:35,759
培养需要纪律的体能锻炼

627
00:23:35,759 --> 00:23:37,380
这也需要自律

628
00:23:37,380 --> 00:23:40,039
你可以在生活中其他方面培养纪律

629
00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:44,779
这种纪律会在你需要时帮助你交易

630
00:23:44,779 --> 00:23:47,069
纪律至关重要

631
00:23:47,069 --> 00:23:49,900
我认为这对许多新手交易者

632
00:23:49,900 --> 00:23:53,779
他们不会意识到纪律在职业生涯中的重要性

633
00:23:53,779 --> 00:23:58,309
直到遭遇首次回撤并感到慌乱

634
00:23:58,309 --> 00:23:59,390
第四点

635
00:23:59,390 --> 00:24:04,039
第四大失败原因是没有理解统计学

636
00:24:04,039 --> 00:24:04,859
我不是说

637
00:24:04,859 --> 00:24:08,640
你应该去上大学或高中统计课

638
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,410
任何统计学

639
00:24:10,410 --> 00:24:15,339
意味着你可以设定较低门槛以更容易盈利

640
00:24:15,339 --> 00:24:18,079
或设定较高门槛增加难度

641
00:24:18,079 --> 00:24:20,079
你更愿意选择设定低门槛

642
00:24:20,079 --> 00:24:20,960
设定高门槛

643
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,369
你应该设定低门槛

644
00:24:22,369 --> 00:24:23,769
新手交易者不做这样

645
00:24:23,769 --> 00:24:26,869
新手交易者不自觉地设定高门槛

646
00:24:26,869 --> 00:24:30,470
因为你不了解盈利所需的数据统计

647
00:24:30,470 --> 00:24:32,690
当我们谈论盈利能力时

648
00:24:32,690 --> 00:24:39,009
我们总是在比较风险与回报对吧

649
00:24:39,009 --> 00:24:43,569
如果你用一美元风险去赚取一美元

650
00:24:43,990 --> 00:24:48,240
要达到盈亏平衡的准确率是百分之五十

651
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,140
只要你有百分之五十的时间正确

652
00:24:50,140 --> 00:24:51,319
就能实现盈利交易

653
00:24:51,319 --> 00:24:51,799
你就会盈亏平衡

654
00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:53,240
即使五比一五

655
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:54,140
两百分比足够

656
00:24:54,140 --> 00:24:55,240
你就会盈利

657
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,628
如果用两美元风险只赚取一美元

658
00:24:58,628 --> 00:25:00,730
这就是我刚开始时的状态

659
00:25:00,730 --> 00:25:01,849
你需要正确

660
00:25:01,849 --> 00:25:02,950
六十六点

661
00:25:02,950 --> 00:25:03,250
六

662
00:25:03,250 --> 00:25:05,470
百分之七的时间才能盈亏平衡

663
00:25:05,470 --> 00:25:07,240
即使是新手交易者

664
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,099
我也无法达到这种准确度

665
00:25:10,099 --> 00:25:13,089
所以我一直在亏损

666
00:25:13,089 --> 00:25:14,049
另一方面

667
00:25:14,049 --> 00:25:17,400
如果用一美元风险赚取两美元

668
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:18,440
你只需要正确

669
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,579
百分之三十三的时间就能盈亏平衡

670
00:25:21,579 --> 00:25:25,068
现在我要你重点关注

671
00:25:25,068 --> 00:25:28,888
想象一下用一美元风险赚取两美元

672
00:25:28,888 --> 00:25:30,749
也许你投入十美元赚取二十

673
00:25:30,749 --> 00:25:33,890
但比例仍是1:2

674
00:25:33,890 --> 00:25:34,809
或者我们称之为

675
00:25:34,809 --> 00:25:38,349
并常称之为盈亏比率，以利润为首

676
00:25:38,349 --> 00:25:41,220
所以盈亏比是2:1

677
00:25:41,220 --> 00:25:43,920
专注于2:1的盈亏比率

678
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,700
你实际上降低了门槛

679
00:25:46,700 --> 00:25:49,549
即使只有百分之五十的正确率

680
00:25:49,549 --> 00:25:51,690
仍可能实现盈利

681
00:25:51,690 --> 00:25:56,980
但如何将知识转化为实际盈利

682
00:25:56,980 --> 00:26:00,470
这始于提升准确性

683
00:26:00,470 --> 00:26:02,309
如果你专注于准确性

684
00:26:02,309 --> 00:26:04,329
不需要每次都正确

685
00:26:04,329 --> 00:26:05,170
没有人能做到

686
00:26:05,170 --> 00:26:07,059
最终可以追求这个目标

687
00:26:07,059 --> 00:26:08,160
但这不现实

688
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,779
但若尽可能多正确交易

689
00:26:11,779 --> 00:26:15,619
必然要提高质量标准

690
00:26:15,619 --> 00:26:19,269
现在专注于符合五项选股原则的股票

691
00:26:19,269 --> 00:26:23,390
本集末尾我会提供选股课程链接

692
00:26:23,390 --> 00:26:26,950
如果你想观看，将交易最强K线形态

693
00:26:26,950 --> 00:26:28,549
我会在本集末尾添加K线形态视频链接

694
00:26:28,549 --> 00:26:30,730
视频

695
00:26:30,730 --> 00:26:33,390
因此你将交易最强股票与最佳形态

696
00:26:33,390 --> 00:26:37,210
随着准确率提升，你的准确性也会提高

697
00:26:37,210 --> 00:26:39,049
通过专注于高质量股票

698
00:26:39,049 --> 00:26:42,179
你关注的是那些能带来更大波动的股票类型

699
00:26:42,179 --> 00:26:47,519
这将延长并提升你的平均利润

700
00:26:47,519 --> 00:26:49,449
因此你的平均盈利股票规模更大

701
00:26:49,449 --> 00:26:53,148
通过聚焦更高质量的股票

702
00:26:53,148 --> 00:26:59,390
你必然避免了那些导致亏损的高风险股票

703
00:26:59,390 --> 00:27:00,638
规模过大

704
00:27:00,638 --> 00:27:02,219
对我来说作为新手

705
00:27:02,219 --> 00:27:05,398
我没有良好的质量评估能力

706
00:27:05,398 --> 00:27:07,098
所以我几乎在所有东西上交易

707
00:27:07,098 --> 00:27:07,838
小盘股

708
00:27:07,838 --> 00:27:08,759
大盘股期权

709
00:27:08,759 --> 00:27:09,740
 penny股票

710
00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:12,440
在所有交易中

711
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,880
我遭遇了一些巨大的亏损

712
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:20,339
每当进行交易时恐慌并补仓试图挽回单笔亏损

713
00:27:20,339 --> 00:27:23,230
你知道那笔五万或十万的亏损

714
00:27:23,230 --> 00:27:25,650
这会拉低你的平均亏损

715
00:27:25,650 --> 00:27:27,369
因为相当于十乘以十五

716
00:27:27,369 --> 00:27:29,200
比平均值大二十倍

717
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,180
但最终要降低整体平均值

718
00:27:32,180 --> 00:27:33,529
亏损依然存在

719
00:27:33,529 --> 00:27:36,730
但没有盈利来弥补

720
00:27:36,730 --> 00:27:38,289
这才是真正令人沮丧的地方

721
00:27:38,289 --> 00:27:39,609
果然我会遭受巨额亏损

722
00:27:39,609 --> 00:27:41,529
却从未能实现巨额盈利

723
00:27:41,529 --> 00:27:43,660
因为当股票上涨时

724
00:27:43,660 --> 00:27:44,619
我会及时获利了结

725
00:27:44,619 --> 00:27:45,880
这是正确的做法

726
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,500
但当股票下跌时

727
00:27:47,500 --> 00:27:48,940
我会追加买入

728
00:27:48,940 --> 00:27:52,160
不断买入更多股份

729
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:53,799
直到最终股价回升

730
00:27:53,799 --> 00:27:54,440
然后平仓离场

731
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:55,460
可能保本

732
00:27:55,460 --> 00:27:57,888
或遭遇巨额亏损

733
00:27:57,888 --> 00:28:01,808
通过理解盈利统计规律

734
00:28:01,808 --> 00:28:06,000
你现在有了明确目标第五点

735
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,059
第五个导致交易者失败的原因是

736
00:28:08,059 --> 00:28:09,460
他们不愿尝试新方法

737
00:28:09,460 --> 00:28:10,609
这意味着什么

738
00:28:10,609 --> 00:28:11,809
这里有个非常有趣的现象

739
00:28:11,809 --> 00:28:13,529
这是我正在努力克服的问题

740
00:28:13,529 --> 00:28:14,910
这也是我自身存在的问题

741
00:28:14,910 --> 00:28:16,509
当市场表现极佳时

742
00:28:16,509 --> 00:28:18,009
你会变得懈怠没错

743
00:28:18,009 --> 00:28:19,390
无需保持严格纪律

744
00:28:19,390 --> 00:28:20,699
行情顺风顺水

745
00:28:20,699 --> 00:28:22,179
当市场走势良好时

746
00:28:22,179 --> 00:28:27,509
你可能缺乏开发备用策略的动力

747
00:28:27,509 --> 00:28:28,470
面包和黄油

748
00:28:28,470 --> 00:28:29,890
因为你赚了很多钱

749
00:28:29,890 --> 00:28:31,059
谁真的在乎

750
00:28:31,059 --> 00:28:34,599
但当你的主要策略市场降温时

751
00:28:34,599 --> 00:28:35,599
你正在思考

752
00:28:35,599 --> 00:28:36,059
啊

753
00:28:36,059 --> 00:28:37,549
我真希望我有备用方案

754
00:28:37,549 --> 00:28:39,190
但当市场冷清时

755
00:28:39,190 --> 00:28:42,479
这不是测试新策略的好时机

756
00:28:42,479 --> 00:28:46,739
因为你承担不起可能因错误导致的损失

757
00:28:46,739 --> 00:28:49,309
所以当市场火热时你不再实验

758
00:28:49,309 --> 00:28:50,750
当市场冷清时你也不实验

759
00:28:50,750 --> 00:28:52,839
现在你把自己困住了

760
00:28:52,839 --> 00:28:55,000
因此需要第三点

761
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,500
需要高度自律才能不断尝试新策略

762
00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:01,309
即使市场火热时

763
00:29:01,309 --> 00:29:05,650
但这是重要的，当市场冷清时会受益

764
00:29:05,650 --> 00:29:07,069
就是这样

765
00:29:07,069 --> 00:29:08,869
最常见的五个原因

766
00:29:08,869 --> 00:29:10,130
交易者亏损

767
00:29:10,130 --> 00:29:13,329
高估自身技能

768
00:29:13,329 --> 00:29:14,789
不了解当前市场

769
00:29:14,789 --> 00:29:16,759
缺乏自律

770
00:29:16,759 --> 00:29:18,400
不懂统计学

771
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,559
现在不进行实验

772
00:29:20,559 --> 00:29:24,170
如果你想查看我频道上的其他完整视频

773
00:29:24,170 --> 00:29:25,950
关于股票选择

774
00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:27,529
关于读蜡烛图

775
00:29:27,529 --> 00:29:29,430
希望大家观看

776
00:29:29,430 --> 00:29:30,690
链接就在那里

777
00:29:30,690 --> 00:29:33,009
再次提醒交易有风险

778
00:29:33,009 --> 00:29:34,599
我的结果非典型

779
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:37,460
管理风险并始终在模拟器练习

780
00:29:37,460 --> 00:29:39,619
在投入真实资金前

781
00:29:39,619 --> 00:29:41,839
如果你还没为本集点赞

782
00:29:41,839 --> 00:29:43,279
或订阅频道

783
00:29:43,279 --> 00:29:46,920
希望大家在进入下一课前都做这两件事

784
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,480
一如既往感谢收看

785
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,000
下次上传很快见

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