还有活的空头吗？NaNa说美股(2026.05.08)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是5月8号周五

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美股三大股指集体收涨

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昨天半导体回调一天之后哈

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资金就迫不及待的回来抄底了

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以半导体和大型科技股为首的AI概念股呢再次爆发

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英特尔美光科技上帝全都涨疯了

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带领娜子再次刷新历史记录高位

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本周标普500指数又累涨了2.33%

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连续第六周上涨

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纳指本周更是累涨了4.51%

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数据面上

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美国4月非农就业人数激增11.5万人

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远超预期的6.5万

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创近一年来最强连续增长

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虽然科技和信息行业持续裁员

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联邦政府就业也连续萎缩

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当时医疗保健

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运输与仓储业

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零售这三个行业的就业增长强劲

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建筑业与休闲和酒店业呢连续第二个月回升

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嗯数据中心建设项目列为今年支撑建筑用工需求的潜在驱动力之一

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4月份失业率维持4.3%不变

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符合预期

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薪资增速环比增长0.2%

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同比增长3.6%

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都低于预期

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这个呢缓解了部分通胀担忧

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本周其他劳动力市场数据整体也指向企稳

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首请和续请世界经济人数都维持低位

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劳动力市场的任性为美联储应对伊朗战争引发的通胀压力

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赢得了观望空间

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短期降息紧迫性进一步下降

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所以数据公布之后

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市场的反应积极

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美股股指期货呢守住了盘前涨幅

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美债收益率小幅下行

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美元走软

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降息预期削弱

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美联储能够维持利率更长的时间

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美债收益率却不升反降哈

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这有点反直觉嗯

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这是因为今天公布的这一份非农报告

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各项数据恰到好处

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虽然就业增长强劲

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失业率低

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但是呢平均时薪增长温和

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劳动力参与率保持在62.5%

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没有引发工资通胀螺旋上升

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但又所以这是一份金发姑娘的这个报告

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就业增长足以支撑经济扩张

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但是薪资增速呢又不足以导致经济过热

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迫使美联储进一步收紧货币政策

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所以现在是想要什么数据都可以做出来哈

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都是恰到好处

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毕竟数据如果不好的话

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统计局局长就得下台

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另外市场对美伊可能达成和平协议的预期持续升温

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嗯尽管霍尔木兹海峡今天还是小摩擦不断

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但是市场没关系哈

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无所谓

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不在乎

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油价呢连续数日下跌

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缓解了通胀担忧

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这也为债券市场提供了支撑

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一些分析师认为

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收益率可能已在一段时间内见顶了

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川普又一次成功守住了4.5%这条红线

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展望后市

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市场焦点将转向下周公布的CPI与PPI数据

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以进一步确认通胀趋势

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如果通胀数据温和

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10年期骗收益率可能测试4.2%的支撑位

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反之如果CPI火热

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那收益率可能迅速反弹至4.5%以上

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还是那句话

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想要什么数据都可以做出来哈

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完全取决于川普是想买call还是想买put

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费城半导体指数呢

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昨天跌了2.7%了

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今天就加倍涨回来了

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这情绪实在是太强了

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资金真的是迫不及待的这个跑回来啊

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成分股中呢

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英特尔林在有报道称

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在白宫的牵线搭桥下

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但是目前尚不清楚英特尔将为苹果制造哪些产品的芯片

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近一年来都与呃苹果CEO库克

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英伟达CEO黄仁勋

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还有SPACEX掌门马斯克多次会面

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推动他们与英特尔开展业务

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而随着苹果牵制

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英特尔现在总算是与这三大科技巨头全部都搭上了线

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建立了合作关系

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股价4月至今翻了足足三倍多

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这不是一只妖股啊

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这是一次一个科技巨头啊

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一个月的时间股价翻三倍多

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你说这太夸张了哈

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QQ今天开盘直接站上了月度和年度主力700美元

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这个位置原本被很多技术交易员视为年内最难跨过去的一道墙

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结果呢市场不仅跨过去了

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而且几乎没怎么回头

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科技股几乎吸走了市场所有氧起

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QQ出现了5年来最大的资金流入

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而且个别个股哈

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比如美观科技

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还有那个英特

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他们的期权成交量甚至超过了标普500指数

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就大盘基准指数的这个成交量

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所以这个市场的结构是越来越集中

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标普500指数呢在短短一个多月时间里

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硬生生狂飙了接近1000点

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整个上涨过程堪称是神挡杀神

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佛挡杀佛

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一路把所有技术阻力位摧枯拉朽般的碾压过去

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无论是均线压制前高套牢盘

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还是情绪上的恐高区哈

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通通都被资金给暴力推平

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回头看3月底的时候

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哪怕是最乐观

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最激进的多头

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都不敢相信市场能在一个月内完成这种级别的冲刺哈

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就连那个华尔街死多头汤姆利

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前几天他也只敢把目标看到7300点啊

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美银技术策略师给出的目标是7373点

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至于狗剩

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那更是从一周前就开始喊着超买了

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要散崩了

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结果今天盘中指数直接冲上了7400点

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现在哈我们回头看这一轮行情已经不仅仅是AI牛市的问题了

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它更像是一场有流动性

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盈利预期与仓位回补共同推动的全球风险资产的重估哈

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重新定价

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真正让这个市场越涨越疯狂

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越疯狂越看涨的核心是企业盈利

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标普500指数

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2026年第一季度盈利同比增长了27%

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创下自2021年第四季度以来最快的盈利增速嗯

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这不仅仅是普通意义上的超预期哈

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4月初的时候嗯

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分析师们认为盈利可能增长12%

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这直接就翻倍了

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是历史级别的盈利散修冲击

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换句话说

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市场现在并不是单纯靠逼空情绪来硬拉的

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而是在重新定价

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AI周期到底能把美国企业利润推高到什么程度哈

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是一场革命性的趋势

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过去呢市场担心估值太贵

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现在市场开始相信盈利增长速度可能要比估值扩张还要更快

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这也是为什么近期很多传统估值逻辑几乎全部失效

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因为当盈利预期不断被散修的时候

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原本看起来昂贵的估值呢会被下一轮盈利增长迅速的消化

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在这种逻辑的推动之下

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大量踏空资金被迫回补

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空头不断被挤压

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机构仓位重新追高

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散户分布情绪那更是全面升温

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前天周三标普500指数看涨期权的成交额

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直接就把名义价值干到了2.6万亿美元哈

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散户和交易员是疯抢看涨期权啊

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疯狂压住指数继续新高

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在这种极端情绪下呢

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做市商位的对冲风险只能被迫不断的买入正股和股指期货来进行对冲

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整个市场已经开始形成了典型的伽马CRIPT正反馈循环

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现在一直在循环当中

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美股天天刷新高

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而且所有人都默认明天还能继续涨

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继续新高

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踏空的焦虑彻底地压过了估值焦虑

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在下个周5月度期权到期日之前

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指数上方还能称得上主力的位置

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就只剩下7450和7500点整数心理关口了哈

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在逼空真正发生之前

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没有人能够想象到行情会疯狂到什么程度

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同样的

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在市场真正拐头之前

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也没人知道究竟需要什么级别的利空才能打破这种近乎失控的狂热

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但是john邓普顿曾说过

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行情总在绝望中诞生

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在半信半疑中成长

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在憧憬中成熟

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在希望中毁灭

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我不知道现在呃这个市场是处于憧憬中呢

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还是希望中

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但是所有人该进场的都已经进场了

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大家不仅是相信

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并且确信AI不是泡沫了

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所以这一轮行情应该已经成熟了吧

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在个股方面

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云服务提供商AKM股价呢暴涨了26.6%

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据知情人士透露

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onto pick与他签署了一项18亿美元

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为期7年的云计算协议

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但是双方都拒绝自拼

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所以不能确定这消息是否属实

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股价倒是先暴利

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拉升了数据中心开发商IREN股价今天涨超7.6%

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英伟达官宣将向其投资21亿美元

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这是双方更广泛合作计划的一部分

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目标呢是加速AI基础设施建设

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根据双方声明

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IREN呢已经同意向英伟达授予一项为期5年的认购权

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允许后者以每股70美的行权价嗯购买最多3000万股AMEN股票

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00:10:18,500 --> 00:10:19,200
与此同时

207
00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:24,259
双方还计划联合部署价值数10亿美元的AI算力资源

208
00:10:24,259 --> 00:10:28,120
此外公司还公布了2026财年Q3业绩

209
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:29,840
营收为1.45亿美元

210
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,950
远低于分析师预期的2.2亿美元

211
00:10:32,950 --> 00:10:36,110
净亏损扩大了2.48亿美元

212
00:10:36,110 --> 00:10:40,220
较上个季度的1.55亿美元亏损显著扩大

213
00:10:40,220 --> 00:10:43,159
主要由于公司关闭了比特币矿场

214
00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:45,820
淘汰那些旧的挖矿设备

215
00:10:45,820 --> 00:10:49,750
一次性计提了1.4亿美元的巨额减值支出

216
00:10:49,750 --> 00:10:52,470
公司正在主动切断旧业务

217
00:10:52,470 --> 00:10:54,980
全面转向AI基础设施

218
00:10:54,980 --> 00:10:56,220
更值得注意的是

219
00:10:56,220 --> 00:11:01,879
现金储备在短短三个月内从32.6亿美元降到22.1亿美元

220
00:11:01,879 --> 00:11:05,379
就是一个季度就烧掉超过10亿美元的现金

221
00:11:05,379 --> 00:11:08,299
按照当前资本开支速度测算的话

222
00:11:08,299 --> 00:11:11,679
那公司大概只剩下两个季度左右的跑道哈

223
00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,779
之后很可能就要开启新一轮融资了

224
00:11:14,779 --> 00:11:16,080
从账面来看

225
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,679
短期财务状况相当的惨烈

226
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,480
但市场的选择忽略这一份惨淡业绩

227
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,529
将目光聚焦于公司长期发展前景

228
00:11:25,529 --> 00:11:27,570
与英伟达的战略性合作

229
00:11:27,570 --> 00:11:32,289
意味着公司业务结构的根本性转型已经全面展开

230
00:11:32,289 --> 00:11:34,809
虽然这仍然是一场极度烧钱

231
00:11:34,809 --> 00:11:37,210
而且高度稀释股权的豪赌哈

232
00:11:37,210 --> 00:11:38,940
但是有英伟达的背书呢

233
00:11:38,940 --> 00:11:42,580
显著降低了市场对其长期扩产失败的担忧

234
00:11:42,580 --> 00:11:44,620
这次财报电话会议上

235
00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:46,289
核心其实就只有一句话

236
00:11:46,289 --> 00:11:48,490
就是公司不想再做矿企了

237
00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:51,879
他想成为全球AI基础设施供应商呃

238
00:11:51,879 --> 00:11:54,659
甚至还提出了一个相当激进的目标

239
00:11:54,659 --> 00:11:59,240
就是到2028年将数据中心容量扩张到无极瓦

240
00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,120
如果ARE你真把这条路给走通了

241
00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,379
那股价未来涨到100美元也是有希望的

242
00:12:05,379 --> 00:12:07,899
但若是出现执行风险呢

243
00:12:07,899 --> 00:12:10,860
股价再次回落到40美元也同样不奇怪哈

244
00:12:10,860 --> 00:12:14,789
目前这个60美元附近的价格属于中性水平

245
00:12:14,789 --> 00:12:18,129
就是市场同时为两种结果定价

246
00:12:18,129 --> 00:12:20,090
多数软件股今天又不行了

247
00:12:20,090 --> 00:12:23,850
都被这个网络安全股克劳斯弗雷尔给带到沟里去了

248
00:12:25,159 --> 00:12:28,080
公司营收同比大幅增长34%

249
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:29,879
调整后每股收益25美分

250
00:12:29,879 --> 00:12:31,100
都好于预期

251
00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:36,110
二季度EPS是指引了与市场预期一致嗯

252
00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:40,669
但是营收指引略低于其公司宣布裁员约20%

253
00:12:40,669 --> 00:12:43,960
并且强调这次裁员并非是为了成本削减

254
00:12:49,818 --> 00:12:51,259
分析师普遍认为哈

255
00:12:51,259 --> 00:12:55,678
就是因为这个Q2指引法理与大规模裁员组合效应

256
00:12:55,678 --> 00:12:58,720
共同触发了市场的恐慌性抛售

257
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:01,519
一

258
00:13:01,519 --> 00:13:03,960
公司Q1营收20.8亿美元

259
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:05,220
同比增长翻倍

260
00:13:05,220 --> 00:13:07,759
高于预期的19.7亿美元

261
00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:11,580
表面上看依旧是标准的AI高增长故事

262
00:13:11,580 --> 00:13:15,450
但是赚钱能力没有跟上扩张的速度

263
00:13:15,450 --> 00:13:18,629
季度净亏损高达7.4亿美元

264
00:13:18,629 --> 00:13:23,889
相比去年同期3.15亿美元的亏损同比扩大了135%

265
00:13:23,889 --> 00:13:30,750
亏损迅速恶化的背后呢是公司正在疯狂砸钱扩建AI基础设施

266
00:13:30,750 --> 00:13:35,750
其中技术与基础设施成本同比暴增的127%

267
00:13:35,750 --> 00:13:37,269
到12.7亿美元

268
00:13:37,269 --> 00:13:41,589
销售和市场费用更是同比飙升超过六倍

269
00:13:41,589 --> 00:13:43,668
达到了6900万美元

270
00:13:43,668 --> 00:13:44,809
更致命的是

271
00:13:44,809 --> 00:13:48,470
利息支出哈已经开始压得公司喘不过气了

272
00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:53,700
净利息支出从去年同期的2.64亿美元飙升到了5.36亿美元

273
00:13:53,700 --> 00:13:56,419
占营收比例接近26%哈

274
00:13:56,419 --> 00:13:57,960
真的这太夸张了

275
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,809
成为当前利润端最大的黑洞

276
00:14:00,809 --> 00:14:04,230
管理层给出的未来故事当然还是非常的炸裂

277
00:14:04,230 --> 00:14:07,169
订单积压逼近千亿美元了

278
00:14:07,169 --> 00:14:09,629
同比激增284%

279
00:14:09,629 --> 00:14:11,330
环比增长50%

280
00:14:11,330 --> 00:14:14,440
2026年的全部产能已经预售一空

281
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,419
按理说这种级别的订单数据

282
00:14:17,419 --> 00:14:20,320
那应该公司大幅上调业绩指引啊

283
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,919
结果呢公司给出的Q2指引却差

284
00:14:22,919 --> 00:14:24,120
于是长预期

285
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,480
预计Q2营收24.5亿到26亿美元

286
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,710
不及预期的27亿美元

287
00:14:29,710 --> 00:14:34,029
预计调整后运营利润只有3000万到9000万美元

288
00:14:34,029 --> 00:14:37,320
更是远低于生产预期的1.54亿美元

289
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,480
而没有像市场此前所期待的那样哈

290
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:45,190
借着meta onto pe克超级大单顺势上调前三指引

291
00:14:45,190 --> 00:14:47,690
这种明显偏保守的姿态

292
00:14:47,690 --> 00:14:51,559
直接就给火热的市场情绪呢兜头浇了一盆冷水

293
00:14:51,559 --> 00:14:53,120
一些投资者就质疑啊

294
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,710
你这公司积压订单到底能否顺利转化为实际收入呀

295
00:14:59,909 --> 00:15:01,629
自3月底以来呃

296
00:15:01,629 --> 00:15:04,519
股价已经暴力反弹了约108%

297
00:15:04,519 --> 00:15:05,840
昨天出财报前

298
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,039
已经有仅剩的一些资金先出逃了哈

299
00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:10,440
股价跌了6.6%

300
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:11,440
今天财报出来呢

301
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:12,610
股价就直接跳水

302
00:15:12,610 --> 00:15:16,690
现在买入的话到底是接飞刀呢还是倒车接人

303
00:15:16,690 --> 00:15:17,450
不好说哈

304
00:15:17,450 --> 00:15:23,399
因为相对理想的抄底价格是股价回踩年限100美元附近

305
00:15:23,399 --> 00:15:27,328
但是呢目前数据中心板块情绪还是非常火热

306
00:15:27,328 --> 00:15:30,048
其他AI数据中心股全都在爆炒

307
00:15:30,048 --> 00:15:31,539
什么HUT啊

308
00:15:31,539 --> 00:15:34,080
呃CIFRAREN等等是吧

309
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,100
很多此前踏空的人可能就会抓住这次下跌的机会

310
00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:39,159
赶紧上车

311
00:15:39,159 --> 00:15:41,159
把股价很快就给拉起来

312
00:15:41,159 --> 00:15:44,240
而且管理层也知道这财报实在太难看了

313
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,600
所以也放话安抚投资者表示

314
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,279
利润率低谷已现

315
00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:51,080
下半年随着产能释放将会显著改善

316
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,710
第四季度有望恢复两位数利润率

317
00:15:53,710 --> 00:15:55,950
所以如果真的怕踏空的话

318
00:15:55,950 --> 00:15:57,909
想建仓还是可以买掉的

319
00:15:57,909 --> 00:16:02,389
但是呢也要做好股价可能会继续下探的心理准备哈

320
00:16:02,389 --> 00:16:03,769
不要一次性的就买完

321
00:16:03,769 --> 00:16:05,139
分几次买嗯

322
00:16:05,139 --> 00:16:07,419
现在因为打儿子们认得多了

323
00:16:07,419 --> 00:16:09,860
那这个其实也就不稀罕了

324
00:16:09,860 --> 00:16:10,779
就像一个皇帝

325
00:16:10,779 --> 00:16:11,480
儿子多了

326
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,940
随随便便一天杀几个也是可以的

327
00:16:13,940 --> 00:16:17,980
比如那个唐明皇太空概念股今天集体走高

328
00:16:17,980 --> 00:16:23,740
rocket lab暴涨超34.2%日K这么长的一根擎天柱

329
00:16:23,740 --> 00:16:24,759
太太牛了

330
00:16:24,759 --> 00:16:26,480
这真的是我看呆了

331
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,220
这情绪炸裂哈

332
00:16:28,220 --> 00:16:30,799
公司Q1业绩全面超预期

333
00:16:30,799 --> 00:16:32,480
营收暴增了64%

334
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,500
每股亏损较去年同期的12美分收窄的七美分

335
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:38,299
虽然仍处于亏损阶段

336
00:16:38,299 --> 00:16:40,779
但是盈利质量正在持续改善

337
00:16:40,779 --> 00:16:43,068
规模效应开始逐渐显现

338
00:16:43,068 --> 00:16:47,940
而且公司在财报发布当天集中释放了多项重磅利好

339
00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:51,899
直接就把市场情绪给彻底点燃啊

340
00:16:51,899 --> 00:16:54,080
公司宣布获得一份保密客户

341
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,480
签订了史上最大发是合同

342
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,580
进一步强化了他的商业航天订单能力

343
00:16:59,580 --> 00:17:04,019
与雷神合作入选黄金穹顶天机拦截器项目

344
00:17:04,019 --> 00:17:07,400
正式切入美国下一代太空防御体系

345
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:14,039
与国防科技公司angels签署的3000万美元高超音速试飞协议

346
00:17:14,039 --> 00:17:17,000
以及收购一家机器人公司呃

347
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,720
进一步补强了它的卫星平台

348
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,299
太空机器人以及深空任务能力

349
00:17:22,299 --> 00:17:23,759
生产开始意识到诶

350
00:17:23,759 --> 00:17:27,799
rocket lab好像不只是一个发火箭的公司了

351
00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:31,960
而是在朝着完整的太空基础设施平台转型啊

352
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,500
公司订单积压总额达到22亿美元

353
00:17:35,500 --> 00:17:38,359
较上个季度环比增长20.2%

354
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:42,079
同时超过了市场预期的19.9亿美元

355
00:17:42,079 --> 00:17:45,579
在马斯克的SPACEX上市之前呃

356
00:17:45,579 --> 00:17:52,039
这个working lab就是资本市场里最纯正也最具代表性的SPACEX的映射概念哈

357
00:17:52,039 --> 00:17:56,420
整个商业模式正在越来越像一个小号版的space x

358
00:17:56,420 --> 00:18:00,779
而且它的盘子嗯比起那个SPACEX来还相对很小

359
00:18:00,779 --> 00:18:04,119
所以呢吸引资金持续流入和追捧

360
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,420
在SPACEX正式上市之前

361
00:18:06,420 --> 00:18:08,559
这个股票都是可以进继续持有

362
00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:09,680
还会继续炒作

363
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:10,779
不知不觉中

364
00:18:10,779 --> 00:18:13,359
戴尔科技股价居然也涨了这么多

365
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,980
今天嗯川普公开喊话力挺戴尔

366
00:18:16,980 --> 00:18:19,960
唱这个让大家去买台戴尔电脑

367
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,990
并且呢称赞公司创始人对川普账户的贡献

368
00:18:23,990 --> 00:18:26,470
最近这些老登股什么戴尔科技啦

369
00:18:26,470 --> 00:18:27,170
高通啦

370
00:18:27,170 --> 00:18:28,549
全都满血复活

371
00:18:28,549 --> 00:18:32,839
因为热钱啊真的是在这个市场里面四处扫货哈

372
00:18:32,839 --> 00:18:35,519
嗯当然主要集中在AI板块

373
00:18:35,519 --> 00:18:39,710
什么角落里面的那些小疙瘩全都捡起来爆炒

374
00:18:39,710 --> 00:18:42,079
所以都是铁树开花

375
00:18:42,079 --> 00:18:46,279
这种情况就很可能延续到5月中旬哈

376
00:18:46,279 --> 00:18:48,480
5月中旬的时候是一个大考验

377
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,190
我们下个星期再细说

378
00:18:50,190 --> 00:18:50,670
那行

379
00:18:50,670 --> 00:18:51,750
那祝大家周末愉快

380
00:18:51,750 --> 00:18:53,119
我们下次见拜拜

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