【NaNa说美股】20260526过气股王不如狗！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月26号

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周二这三天的长周末时间哈

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消息面呢几乎没有安静过

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各路媒体不断传出

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美伊谈判取得重大进展的好消息

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双方即将达成协议

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结束战争

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虽然目前尚不清楚协议究竟何时落定

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具体条款如何执行

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但资金已经提前开始交易

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海峡开放的预期

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原油价格的连续下跌

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全球股市应声走强

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就在川普发帖表示谈判进展顺利的同时

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美军在周二对伊朗南部的岛导弹

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发射阵地和布雷艇发动了自卫性空袭

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同时强调

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美方仍希望维持停火框架

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另一边

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以色列也猛攻黎巴嫩

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真主党已经越过了伊犁停火线

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在黎巴嫩南部展开地面攻势

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谴责美国违反停火承诺

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并且表示在相关条件完全满足之前

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不会轻易达成最终协议

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受此消息影响

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市场情绪再次出现了摇摆

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欧洲和亚洲股市涨跌互现

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部分周一已经开市并且提前大涨的市场的

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今天都出现了回落或者震荡整理

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而像韩国美股等周一休市的市场呢

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则在今天周二出现了不涨

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原有市场依然是当前最敏感的风向标

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2WTI原油期货价格虽然整体继续回落

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但是盘中波动明显加剧

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尽管局势仍然脆弱

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但是美伊双方未来几天依然存在

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达成协议的可能性

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呃虽然这个消息面非常的混乱哈

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但资金呢呃开始提前定价

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冲突最终会逐渐降温的未来

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换句话说

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中东风险虽然还没有真正的结束

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但市场交易的已经不再是战争全面升级哈

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而是局势逐渐降温之后

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全球经济的重新回到AI与增长逻辑主导的预期

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10年期美收益率持续回落到4.5%以下

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反映出市场对以协议进展的乐观预期

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推动通胀与利率预期降温

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标普与纳指都收涨

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报纸呢因为石油医疗保险消费板块下跌被拖累

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本周交易时间缩短

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周四早盘时间08:30和十点之间

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经济数据扎堆公布

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包括第一季度GDP修正值

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4月核心PC耐用品订单以及初请数据等

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由于夏季交易季非正式开始

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市场整体流动性通常会季节性下降

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这种短交易周和数据高度集中

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以及夏季流动性降低的组合呢

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通常会加剧市场的波动

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引发呃

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这暴涨暴跌行情促使机构在周三和周四早盘

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可能会提前进行仓位调整

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同时周三的原有库存数据

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是观察能源供应的窗口哈

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当前霍尔木兹海峡局势进展

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也是这个夏季市场走势的关键

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企业财报方面呢最受瞩目的是嗯

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South force snowflake

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迈威尔科技

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戴尔科技

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还有COSTCO呃

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他们几个的财报分别代表了AI软件

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半导体基建以及消费底层这三大方向

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其中source force核心看点在于它的agent force

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AI的采用率

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市场呢急需确认AI能否真正转化为大额订单

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加速销售周期或者提高客户的留存

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snowflake的业绩

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则将检验云数据仓库的经济效应

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以及AI驱动的消费增长

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回答数据分析支出在竞争加剧下

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能否维持高增加

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迈威尔科技财报前下

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华尔街就密集上调了嗯该股的目标价

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并且一致维持看涨评级

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市场重点关注它的AI定制芯片

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与数据中心互联业务

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它的指引将会证明

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除了英伟达之外的半导体生态

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是否同样在大口吃肉

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大口喝酒

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赛尔科技呢将会揭示企业it支出模式

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AI服务器发展势头

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以及企业是否仍在维持技术基础设施投资

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还是开始表现出经济谨慎

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cos co的财报

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通过他的会员制仓储式零售模式

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为消费者的健康状况提供关键评估

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上一周

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另一家零售巨头沃尔玛股价在财报后下跌

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让投资者对COSTCO的财报呢也持谨慎观望态度

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沃尔玛倒在了油价和供应链成本上

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那本周市场就会拿着放大镜去看COSTCO的毛利率

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看他强大的会员费收入和议价能力

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能否抗住上周沃尔玛所警告的宏观成本压力

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标普500指数今天跳空高开

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一举战胜了7500点

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日内最低都没有再跌破

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油价一下跌

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这个华尔街呢就配合川普

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摩根大通

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四大ELLE

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还有black coco等多家机构今天都迫不及待的跳出来

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一致说呃

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美联储应该尽快降息以支撑经济

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目前呢大盘仍处于正干卖区间

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这意味着做市商会在下跌的时候买入

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上涨的时候适当卖出做对冲

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这种机制会自动压低市场波动

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大幅急跌的概率被结构性压制

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市场更倾向于缓慢爬升

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现在最密集的多头筹码已经集中在7600

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7700点

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只要这个周四的数据别太爆炸

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或者中东不再爆发热战

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那多头将会继续向新高发起冲锋

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最近华尔街对AI的乐观情绪也是越来越夸张

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摩根大通今天高呼标普500

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未来一年要冲散9000点

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另一边摩根三类发布的研报显示

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AI算力军备竞赛已经进入停不下来的阶段

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就是不管成本高不高哈

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科技巨头们都会不计代价的继续加码

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建设AI数据中心

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因为他们担心的不是花多少钱

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而是就怕花不够

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导致错过下一轮AI时代

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华尔街现在是越来越相信

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AI会像当年的互联网一样大幅提升生产效率

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并且持续推高美国企业盈利

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顶级投行近期对AI超级周期

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重塑生产率的这个坚定看涨呢

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正在成为推动这一轮残牛的核心信仰

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不过需要注意的是哈

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虽然机构嘴上是非常的乐观了

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但是他们在衍生品市场里呢

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还是悄摸摸的

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这个做了不少的防御性对冲布局哈

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这说明大资金并不是完全没有戒心

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他们也在偷偷的防备着市场突然回调

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接下来一个非常关键的观察点呢就是小盘股

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因为过去这段时间

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美股主要是靠AI和半导体支撑

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其他板块的跟涨幅度有限

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接下来大盘能否维持在正伽马区间

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温和的向上爬升

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并且借助小盘股的突破

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将牛市的管度推向各行各业

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就是让市场管度改善

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这将会是这个夏季交易季最关键的胜负手

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最近小盘股aw m呢开始有转强迹象了哈

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今天就跳空高开

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已经突破了5月前高

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300点附近

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已经出现了不少的期权大单提前埋伏

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通常这种资金动作会比价格本身更早透露

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主力依托嗯

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300已经是现在的市场目标了

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如果后面小盘股真的能够突破300的话

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拿来代表市场风险偏好

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正在从AI芯片扩散到更广泛的行业哈

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这会让这轮牛市呢变得更健康

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也更有持续性

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因为一般来说

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牛市的这个中后阶段通常都是群魔乱舞

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小盘股集体升天的费城半导体指数呢

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今天怒涨5.53%哈

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涨疯了

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大幅跑赢美股大盘

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反正每次大家觉得这个硬件炒的差不多了

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应该炒一下软件应用了

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结果市场总是又会绕到这些硬件上面

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与此同时

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加密市场哈却走出了这个明显的背离

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据彭博社报道

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随着交易活动低迷以及投机资金兴趣转移

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比特币期权避险需求减弱

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比特币的波动率呢降到了九个月低点

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就像那些存储呀

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太空板块呀

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更刺激导致流入加密市场的热钱减少

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而较低的交易量又通常会压低实际波动率

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进而呢进一步拉低这隐含波动率

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美国现货比特币ETF

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在5月份已经出现了约10亿美元的净流出

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扭转了前面连续两个月的净流入趋势

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这就表明投资者需求降温

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散户的兴趣正在转向其他交易机会

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目前比特币交易价格大约为7.6

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7.7万美元嗯

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比去年10月创下的12.6万美元的历史高点

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仍然下跌了近40%

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其实也不仅仅是比特币被存储

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太空板块吸血哈

209
00:09:50,950 --> 00:09:52,009
像英伟达

210
00:09:52,009 --> 00:09:55,328
微软亚马逊现在全都一个个贫血了

211
00:09:55,328 --> 00:09:58,089
不仅跑输费半跑输大盘

212
00:09:58,089 --> 00:09:59,589
也跑输小盘股

213
00:09:59,589 --> 00:10:03,629
呃那些其他虾兵蟹将们个个涨势凶猛哈

214
00:10:03,629 --> 00:10:06,500
看看这个诺基亚股价都翻了好几倍了

215
00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:13,210
就英伟达过气古玩不如狗哈

216
00:10:13,210 --> 00:10:15,509
嗯当然那个微软也不争气了

217
00:10:15,509 --> 00:10:19,429
感觉市场现在已经把英伟达视为另一个苹果了

218
00:10:19,429 --> 00:10:21,599
股价已经连续下跌了几天

219
00:10:21,599 --> 00:10:24,499
今天收盘都没能够拉回到嗯

220
00:10:24,499 --> 00:10:25,499
二百十五

221
00:10:25,499 --> 00:10:28,219
就接下来几天需要尽快反弹

222
00:10:28,219 --> 00:10:29,519
拉回到二百十五

223
00:10:29,519 --> 00:10:31,009
230这个区间

224
00:10:31,009 --> 00:10:31,750
否则的话

225
00:10:31,750 --> 00:10:35,450
若进一步这下行有效跌破二百十五的话

226
00:10:35,450 --> 00:10:37,490
那可能就要看下200了

227
00:10:37,490 --> 00:10:40,700
等6月中旬SPACEX上市哈

228
00:10:40,700 --> 00:10:44,600
可能第一个要被虹吸流动性的就是英伟达

229
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,320
因为它的盘子最大嘛

230
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,919
黄金这一边目前还在高位震荡

231
00:10:48,919 --> 00:10:50,299
虽然美债收益率回落

232
00:10:50,299 --> 00:10:53,419
对黄金这种没有利息的资产呢算是利好

233
00:10:53,419 --> 00:10:56,580
但是金价并没有出现特别强的突破哈

234
00:10:56,580 --> 00:11:00,019
说明市场还在等待新的宏观催化剂

235
00:11:00,019 --> 00:11:02,500
现在短线资金呢在美元

236
00:11:02,500 --> 00:11:05,690
利率和避险情绪之间来回的摇摆

237
00:11:05,690 --> 00:11:09,250
多空双方暂时都没有形成压倒性的优势

238
00:11:09,250 --> 00:11:13,809
如果黄金重新站稳4595美元上方

239
00:11:13,809 --> 00:11:16,529
可能会吸引更多的趋势资金追涨

240
00:11:16,529 --> 00:11:20,029
但如果跌破4500美元附近的支撑的话

241
00:11:20,029 --> 00:11:22,409
那市场情绪可能会转向更谨慎

242
00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:24,450
当前的这个金价嗯

243
00:11:24,450 --> 00:11:26,990
技术结构更像是叙事阶段哈

244
00:11:26,990 --> 00:11:29,379
而不是单边行情的尾声

245
00:11:29,379 --> 00:11:30,620
其他个股方面

246
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:33,830
存储概念今天就是集体走高

247
00:11:33,830 --> 00:11:36,370
美光科技飙升超19%

248
00:11:36,370 --> 00:11:39,490
创下2011年以来最大单日涨幅

249
00:11:39,490 --> 00:11:41,649
市值突破了1万亿美元

250
00:11:41,649 --> 00:11:45,089
年初至今涨幅已经高达二百十四%

251
00:11:45,089 --> 00:11:47,489
川普在5月22号嗯

252
00:11:47,489 --> 00:11:52,720
在纽约举行的大型集会上公开点名赞扬美观

253
00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:54,509
科技撑起真的很棒

254
00:11:54,509 --> 00:11:56,230
盛产炒作美观

255
00:11:56,230 --> 00:11:59,720
科技可能会成为下一个美国政府要入股的企业

256
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,100
美观科技的这个管理层

257
00:12:02,100 --> 00:12:04,679
也在摩根大通年度科技峰会上表

258
00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,139
是存储芯片的供应紧张局面

259
00:12:07,139 --> 00:12:09,860
预计将会持续到2026年后

260
00:12:09,860 --> 00:12:13,539
AI应用对高性能存储需求强劲

261
00:12:13,539 --> 00:12:16,100
而供应端呢受制于技术瓶颈

262
00:12:16,100 --> 00:12:17,789
难以快速扩产

263
00:12:17,789 --> 00:12:21,269
任意银呢也大幅上调美观目标价哈

264
00:12:21,269 --> 00:12:24,169
给出了1600美元的天价

265
00:12:24,169 --> 00:12:27,169
对应市值大约1.8万亿美元

266
00:12:27,169 --> 00:12:28,610
美光科技的衍生品

267
00:12:28,610 --> 00:12:32,820
在高杠杆多头拥挤中还在继续扩张

268
00:12:32,820 --> 00:12:36,259
那些未平仓合约就资金用脚投票嘛

269
00:12:36,259 --> 00:12:39,360
呃宁愿在宏观不安的这个背景之下

270
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,049
继续压住科技成长哈

271
00:12:42,049 --> 00:12:46,929
也不愿意对这个原有地缘溢价的方向性

272
00:12:46,929 --> 00:12:47,690
进行博弈

273
00:12:47,690 --> 00:12:50,960
就是将那些地缘风险暂时放到一边

274
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,240
而是全力压住这个存储方向

275
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,000
太空板块呢今天也是全线走高

276
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,578
在space x ipo上市之前

277
00:12:59,578 --> 00:13:01,798
热钱持续流入这个板块

278
00:13:01,798 --> 00:13:03,000
炒作气氛

279
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:07,519
MNPS宣布增发最多2亿美元的股票

280
00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:09,980
他现在市值才1.55亿美元呀

281
00:13:09,980 --> 00:13:12,110
就等于增发一个王子

282
00:13:12,110 --> 00:13:14,389
他自己股价居然不跌反涨

283
00:13:14,389 --> 00:13:16,599
单日飙升140%

284
00:13:16,599 --> 00:13:19,639
所以你看这formal情绪有多么疯狂哈

285
00:13:19,639 --> 00:13:22,119
这股票完全就是一只僵尸股

286
00:13:22,119 --> 00:13:23,620
没有任何的基本面

287
00:13:23,620 --> 00:13:26,879
2020年通过spark合并上市以来

288
00:13:26,879 --> 00:13:29,259
在当时的spark投机狂热中

289
00:13:29,259 --> 00:13:32,089
被散户们无脑爆炒了一段时间

290
00:13:32,089 --> 00:13:35,269
然后2021年2月份摸顶之后呢

291
00:13:35,269 --> 00:13:37,448
机构就露出了锋利的镰刀

292
00:13:37,448 --> 00:13:39,059
开始收割了股价

293
00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:40,600
持后就一直跌跌不休

294
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,100
跌去了99.9%

295
00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:46,279
期间这股票进行了多次合股

296
00:13:46,279 --> 00:13:47,539
50股合一股

297
00:13:47,539 --> 00:13:49,019
20股合一股

298
00:13:49,019 --> 00:13:51,159
合股之后再继续下跌

299
00:13:51,159 --> 00:13:55,379
现在呢借助SPACEX掀起的太空板块的投机狂热哈

300
00:13:55,379 --> 00:13:57,279
这僵尸股也回魂了

301
00:13:57,279 --> 00:14:02,159
另一只太空概念股小月亮LUNR盘中翻车了

302
00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:04,399
因为突然爆出了一个突发消息

303
00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:06,840
就说公司在NASA的呃

304
00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,600
月球地形车长期服务合同的第一阶段

305
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,639
这个意外落选了

306
00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:13,259
第一阶段

307
00:14:13,259 --> 00:14:16,539
总计大约4.4亿美元的车体研发与交付

308
00:14:16,539 --> 00:14:21,429
合同呢被公司的两个核心竞争对手给拿走了

309
00:14:21,429 --> 00:14:23,529
LUA呢虽然没有被剥夺

310
00:14:23,529 --> 00:14:27,120
后续啊这个NASA合同的生态参与权

311
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:31,679
他的着陆器继续中标第三次月球基地任务哈

312
00:14:31,679 --> 00:14:34,200
但是市场原本以为能够

313
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,399
他独吞的这个蛋糕被分走了一部分

314
00:14:37,399 --> 00:14:41,710
这导致狂热的散户和期权多头瞬间踩踏

315
00:14:41,710 --> 00:14:44,070
盘中跌幅一度高达18%

316
00:14:44,070 --> 00:14:45,570
由于股价跌的太快

317
00:14:45,570 --> 00:14:48,009
还一度触发了熔断机制

318
00:14:48,009 --> 00:14:51,850
最后收盘呢回吐了日内17%的涨幅哈

319
00:14:51,850 --> 00:14:53,990
并且收跌9%呃

320
00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:54,710
尽管如此

321
00:14:54,710 --> 00:14:57,590
这个年内涨幅仍然高达一百十五%

322
00:14:57,590 --> 00:15:01,590
那我觉得这个股票可能需要挤一下泡沫呃

323
00:15:01,590 --> 00:15:03,429
再上车会比较合适

324
00:15:03,429 --> 00:15:04,090
当然了

325
00:15:04,090 --> 00:15:06,110
这个意外的这个跳水

326
00:15:06,110 --> 00:15:09,480
也可能让主力机构被套在高位的话

327
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,740
那他们也可能会继续在

328
00:15:11,740 --> 00:15:14,360
趁着这个SPACEX上市之前哈

329
00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,139
再继续拉高出货

330
00:15:16,139 --> 00:15:19,159
所以这股票就风险开始变大了

331
00:15:19,159 --> 00:15:21,399
附图的股价呢从谷底

332
00:15:21,399 --> 00:15:24,629
今天暴力反弹涨近20%

333
00:15:24,629 --> 00:15:26,009
我本来想抄底的哈

334
00:15:26,009 --> 00:15:28,389
结果因为看隔壁那个美观

335
00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:29,229
看呆了

336
00:15:29,229 --> 00:15:30,408
等我回过神来

337
00:15:30,408 --> 00:15:32,109
这边股价已经拉上去了

338
00:15:32,109 --> 00:15:33,568
所以拍断大腿

339
00:15:33,568 --> 00:15:36,769
标普全球品级呢发表报告指出

340
00:15:40,489 --> 00:15:42,328
进行了新一轮整顿

341
00:15:42,328 --> 00:15:46,328
但是鉴于公司在香港与海外的业务持续增长

342
00:15:46,328 --> 00:15:49,789
带动了2025年收入增长超过65%

343
00:15:49,789 --> 00:15:52,309
内地业务影响呢可能相对有限

344
00:15:52,309 --> 00:15:55,929
预计公司未来两年的业务流仍将保持平稳

345
00:15:55,929 --> 00:15:59,649
嗯附图将在这个周四盘前公布财报哈

346
00:15:59,649 --> 00:16:01,549
去年的业绩肯定很好

347
00:16:01,549 --> 00:16:05,909
最主要的还是得听一下公司管理层对于这个嗯

348
00:16:05,909 --> 00:16:09,330
这次监管事件对公司的后续影响

349
00:16:09,330 --> 00:16:11,220
以及未来的业绩指引

350
00:16:11,220 --> 00:16:12,460
其实嗯附土

351
00:16:12,460 --> 00:16:16,259
这几年你的确是一直在减少内地业务的比例

352
00:16:16,259 --> 00:16:18,289
大力开发这个北美市场

353
00:16:18,289 --> 00:16:20,769
对于北美客户们来说是没有什么影响啦

354
00:16:20,769 --> 00:16:23,210
就是国内那些想买美股的朋友们

355
00:16:23,210 --> 00:16:24,950
可能就会比较苦恼一些

356
00:16:24,950 --> 00:16:27,970
因为以前去香港开户

357
00:16:27,970 --> 00:16:29,899
拿港卡入境的途径呢

358
00:16:29,899 --> 00:16:33,179
可能正在被这个内地监管们给堵死哈

359
00:16:33,179 --> 00:16:34,240
如果可以的话

360
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,539
还是应该想个办法

361
00:16:35,539 --> 00:16:38,929
办个港澳或者海外身份什么的行

362
00:16:38,929 --> 00:16:40,470
今天我们就简单说到这里

363
00:16:40,470 --> 00:16:41,960
那我们明天见拜拜

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