30分钟看懂巴菲特！“股神”是如何炼成的？巴菲特到底是怎么赚钱的？

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1957年起

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他一笔一划写下致合伙人与股东的信

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于80封

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讲的是原则

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不是故事

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1965年起

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他60次登上伯克希尔的讲台

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面对成千上万投资者

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数小时答疑

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从不回避

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还有无数次讲演

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访谈授课

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他反复讲述

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反复强调

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甚至反复引用自己

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That's as much of myself

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As you

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Can i mean

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You're you're your own

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Biggest asset by far

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And i do know what i call my circle of competence

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So i i i stay within that circle

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And i don't worry about things

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They're outside that circle

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I've got this rule

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The rule

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You know the first rule is don't lose in the

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Second rule is never forget the first rule doesn't take brains

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It takes temperamcharlie munger

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My partner

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I in fifty four years now

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We've never made a decision

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Based on an economic

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不能这么

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他的语言简单清晰

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逻辑自洽

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让人听完觉得你也许能照着去做

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但几十年来从来没有人真正做到

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如果方法已经摆在那儿

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为什么没人能复制巴菲特

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故事要从一场崩溃开始讲起

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1929年

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美国股市崩盘

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大萧条席卷全国

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银行倒闭

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工厂停工

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1930年

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仅芝加哥一地就有近45万人失业

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整个国家被焦虑与贫困吞没

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就在那一年

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1930年8月30日

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在内布拉斯加州奥马哈

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一个男孩出生了沃伦巴菲特

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他的家庭普通却不寻常

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父亲是证券经纪人

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后来成为国会议员

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祖父经营着一家靠诚信与算盘维持的小杂货铺

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在这样的环境中

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这个孩子从小就对数字

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六岁时

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他挨家挨户兜售批发来的可口可乐

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七岁那年

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他从图书馆借到一本书

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名字叫赚1000美元的1000种方法

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这本书点燃了他对商业世界的想象

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他希望靠投币体重计发财

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并幻想自己能成为体重计行业的洛克菲勒

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他的童年在衰退中启蒙

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在战争中成长

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1939年二战爆发

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1941年

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日本偷袭珍珠港

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美国正式加入二战工厂昼夜运转

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军舰战机坦克源源不断地使出产线

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战争重塑了世界

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也重塑了美国的经济结构

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就在那个时代

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年仅11岁的巴菲特

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完成了人生第一次股票投资

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以每股38.25美元的价格

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买入三股city service的优先股

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他的人生就此踏入资本的世界

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到了13岁

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她填了人生第一份纳税申报表

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当时靠送报纸卖口香糖

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倒卖高尔夫球和可乐

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赚取了几百美元收入

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这些小买卖不仅带来现金流

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也锻炼了他对成本利润

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库存周转的理解

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1945年

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战争结束

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欧洲与日本满目疮痍

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而美国站在了全球经济的制高点

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制造业强劲

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消费爆发

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生产力大幅跃升

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这是美国黄金时代的开端

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就在这片土壤中

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15岁的巴菲特靠送报纸卖口香糖

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运营投币式弹球机

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攒下了人生第一桶金

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5000美元

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在当时

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这笔钱足以在奥马哈买下一套房子

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1950年代的美国

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估值便宜

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监管宽松

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机构投资者尚未崛起

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这是一个真正属于价值投资的黄金时代

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而他正好在这片土壤中扎根

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1947年

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17岁的巴菲特考入宾夕法尼亚大学

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沃顿商学院

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但课堂上的内容空洞公式化

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他觉得学不到真正的赚钱之道

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两年后

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他转学回内布拉斯加大学提前毕业

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他要更快的走进那个自己早已锁定的世界投资

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1950年

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20岁的他申请哈佛商学院却被拒之门外

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但他没有气馁

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他发现自己的偶像

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著名投资人本杰明

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格雷厄姆正在哥伦比亚大学授课

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他立刻改报并顺利被录取

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Ben graham did all kinds of things for me

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And he never expected one thing in return

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1954年

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24岁的巴菲特如愿加入格雷厄姆纽曼公司

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成为格雷厄姆亲手挑选的分析师

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当年可可豆价格从每磅五美分

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飙升到60美分以上

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可全美最大的可可加工商ROCKWOOD口却进退两难

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他们囤了大量低价库存

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但一旦卖出

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就要按后进先出会计法缴进50%的水

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幸好1954年税法新增条款

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若将库存分发给股东

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作为缩小业务安排

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可免税

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ROCKWOOD借此宣布业务重组

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提出回购股票

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每股兑80磅可可豆

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既处理库存又避税

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巴菲特敏锐捕捉到其中机会

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他在公开市场大量买入ROKEWOOD的股票

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再以股份兑换可可豆

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转手卖出获利

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完成了一笔稳健套利

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最终rock wood股价也从15美元涨到近100美元

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这成为他投资生涯中

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最早也最经典的烟蒂股案例

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捡起地上那根看似抽完的雪茄

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哪怕只剩最后一口

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也还能再点一次火

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The cigar

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But approach to investing words is where you try

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And find a a really uh kind of pathetic company

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But it smells so cheap that you think there's one good free

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Puff left in it

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And and we used to pick up a lot of soggy cigar

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Butts

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这一年

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巴菲特第一次系统接触到价值投资的核心理念

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安全边际

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他开始理解投资不是压住未来的故事

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而是以足够低的价格买入现实中

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被市场忽视的价值

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I wouldn't be remotely

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Where i am without without ben graham

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Graham gave you the principal

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然而1956年

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格雷厄姆对投资失去了兴趣

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于是退休基金清算

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26岁的巴菲特并没有留在华尔街

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而是回到奥马哈

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用10.5万美元亲友资金成立了buffet partnership party

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1957年

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巴菲特partnership刚成立不久

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巴菲特就发现了一个冷门

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但极具解构价值的机会

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这家公司叫sample map

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主营业务是地图绘制

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为保险公司提供详细城市地图

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用于评估火灾风险

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制定保费标准

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几十年来

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这项业务曾垄断全美市场

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但到了1950年代

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竞争者崛起

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市场饱和

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业务开始大幅萎缩

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盈利能力逐年下滑

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成了资本市场的老年病号

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但巴菲特却在他的年报里发现了另一个故事

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Sample map

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把多年来的利润悄悄投进了股票市场

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这些资产由公司投资部门管理

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到了1958年

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光是这笔投资组合的市值

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就已超过公司自身的总市值

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也就是说

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你在市场上以每股45美元的价格买森博

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实际上可以拥有价值65美元的股票组合

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而地图业务几乎是免费负责

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巴菲特果断出手

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持续买入

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很快持股比例超过40%

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成为第一大股东

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他没有公开敌意收购

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也没有炒作题材

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而是悄悄进入董事会

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开始推动公司做一件事

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把投资组合分拆出来

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直接发给股东

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这是标准的资产解锁操作

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公司不需要清盘

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不需要改名

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只需要把那笔躺在账上的钱回到股东手里

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最终他做到了sample map

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向股东分派了手中的投资证券

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并将剩余地图业务保留在公司内运营

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巴菲特不仅成功释放了这笔被忽视的价值

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也用这一案例证明了他对资产重估

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结构重组的掌控能力

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从1956年起

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远远跑赢标普指数

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以远低于价值的价格买入

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然后耐心等待他回归

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在那个属于慢

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属于深思

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属于认真阅读财报的年代

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这种逻辑正好击中了市场的漏洞所

235
00:08:22,540 --> 00:08:27,009
We bought a big a rated security and made a lot of money

236
00:08:27,009 --> 00:08:30,029
But mostly he was buying more obscure

237
00:08:30,029 --> 00:08:32,779
Securities that were incredibly cheap

238
00:08:32,779 --> 00:08:33,299
Well

239
00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:35,620
He always said it was less distracting to be there

240
00:08:35,620 --> 00:08:40,298
Among all the rumors in action on in manhattan

241
00:08:40,298 --> 00:08:44,918
I would say he was making most of his money in a very solitary fashion

242
00:08:44,918 --> 00:08:46,979
Just by sifting a lot of dated

243
00:08:46,979 --> 00:08:48,259
And thinking a lot

244
00:08:48,259 --> 00:08:50,480
And he could do that as well in omaha

245
00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,929
As he could in wall street in fact better

246
00:08:52,929 --> 00:08:55,090
你可以学会他的分析方法

247
00:08:55,090 --> 00:08:59,759
但你复制不了那个允许你靠方法身处的时代

248
00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:02,480
接下来是另一个秘密

249
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:03,960
别人没有的钱

250
00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,559
他有

251
00:09:07,500 --> 00:09:08,820
在多数人眼中

252
00:09:08,820 --> 00:09:10,559
巴菲特是个选股天才

253
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:12,059
但很少人意识到

254
00:09:12,059 --> 00:09:15,818
他的投资帝国其实建在一片并不耀眼的土地上

255
00:09:15,818 --> 00:09:19,289
保险业其实早在1951年

256
00:09:19,289 --> 00:09:20,669
21岁的巴菲特

257
00:09:20,669 --> 00:09:23,179
读到格雷厄姆著作中的一句只言片语

258
00:09:23,179 --> 00:09:25,279
便亲自坐火车赶到该口总部

259
00:09:25,279 --> 00:09:26,240
他敲开了门

260
00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,039
和盖克副总裁洛里莫戴维森聊了整整四个小时

261
00:09:30,039 --> 00:09:31,419
那时他就意识到

262
00:09:31,419 --> 00:09:34,279
保险是个拥有巨大杠杆的生意

263
00:09:34,279 --> 00:09:37,929
The insurance business provides us with float

264
00:09:37,929 --> 00:09:39,850
And float is money that we hold it

265
00:09:39,850 --> 00:09:41,250
Doesn't belong to us

266
00:09:41,250 --> 00:09:43,809
It's like a bank having deposit

267
00:09:43,809 --> 00:09:45,649
保险公司有一个独特的机制

268
00:09:45,649 --> 00:09:46,809
叫做浮存金

269
00:09:46,809 --> 00:09:48,710
是客户预先支付的保费

270
00:09:48,710 --> 00:09:49,710
在理赔前

271
00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:51,230
这笔钱归公司支配

272
00:09:51,230 --> 00:09:52,629
他不用支付利息

273
00:09:52,629 --> 00:09:54,190
也无需归还本金

274
00:09:54,190 --> 00:09:55,490
是一种低成本

275
00:09:55,490 --> 00:09:58,429
长期可自由投资的他人值钱

276
00:09:58,429 --> 00:09:59,610
1962年

277
00:09:59,610 --> 00:10:01,090
巴菲特开始买入一家

278
00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:03,210
日薄西山的新英格兰纺织厂

279
00:10:03,210 --> 00:10:04,960
伯克希尔哈撒韦

280
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,299
当时这只是一家传统制造公司

281
00:10:07,299 --> 00:10:10,620
但他很快意识到它可以成为一个控股平台

282
00:10:10,620 --> 00:10:11,860
1967年

283
00:10:11,860 --> 00:10:14,320
伯克希尔首次收购了national endemity

284
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:15,960
一家小型保险公司

285
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,509
从此巴菲特真正拥有了第一桶

286
00:10:18,509 --> 00:10:20,149
属于自己的浮存金

287
00:10:20,149 --> 00:10:22,649
That you know that the job is to get it

288
00:10:22,649 --> 00:10:24,250
Get it in increasing quantities

289
00:10:24,250 --> 00:10:25,450
But above all get it cheap

290
00:10:25,450 --> 00:10:27,570
And that's we work at it

291
00:10:27,570 --> 00:10:29,009
I mean in nineteen sixty seven

292
00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:31,169
We were not looked at that way in the insurance of business

293
00:10:31,169 --> 00:10:34,750
We were we've built a position of competitive

294
00:10:34,750 --> 00:10:35,110
Strengths

295
00:10:35,110 --> 00:10:36,570
And in the case of geio

296
00:10:36,570 --> 00:10:37,850
They had it without us

297
00:10:37,850 --> 00:10:41,575
But what but we have we have bought into it over time

298
00:10:41,870 --> 00:10:43,049
1976年

299
00:10:43,049 --> 00:10:44,649
在GEO深陷困境时

300
00:10:44,649 --> 00:10:46,370
巴菲特果断增持

301
00:10:46,370 --> 00:10:47,529
1996年

302
00:10:47,529 --> 00:10:50,529
改口全自并入伯克希尔和national endemity

303
00:10:50,529 --> 00:10:52,340
组成浮存金的双引擎

304
00:10:52,340 --> 00:10:53,899
浮存金的稳定支持

305
00:10:53,899 --> 00:10:56,559
为他的投资提供了坚实的资金来源

306
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:57,759
喜事糖果

307
00:10:57,759 --> 00:10:58,919
华盛顿邮报

308
00:10:58,919 --> 00:11:02,950
可口可乐改口全资收购内布拉斯加家具城

309
00:11:02,950 --> 00:11:05,389
每一次买入背后都是可调度的

310
00:11:05,389 --> 00:11:06,789
大规模低成本资金

311
00:11:07,870 --> 00:11:08,899
1970年

312
00:11:08,899 --> 00:11:11,559
伯克希尔的浮存金为3900万美元

313
00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:12,820
到了2025年

314
00:11:12,820 --> 00:11:15,519
这个数字已高达1740亿美元

315
00:11:15,519 --> 00:11:17,389
且几乎是零利率

316
00:11:17,389 --> 00:11:19,990
普通人能控制的是回报率与时间

317
00:11:19,990 --> 00:11:22,230
但巴菲特比别人多了一块

318
00:11:22,230 --> 00:11:24,068
别人根本拿不到的拼图

319
00:11:24,068 --> 00:11:26,529
资金来源的结构性优势

320
00:11:26,529 --> 00:11:27,850
没有复存金

321
00:11:27,850 --> 00:11:29,690
巴菲特也许依然优秀

322
00:11:29,690 --> 00:11:32,149
但没有人能在没有复存金的前提下

323
00:11:32,149 --> 00:11:34,009
复制他的路径

324
00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:39,399
如果说保险浮存金

325
00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:41,879
给了巴菲特源源不断的资金河流

326
00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:45,620
那么查理芒格改变了这条河流的方向

327
00:11:45,620 --> 00:11:49,039
1960年初夏洛杉矶的一场参会

328
00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:51,539
沃伦巴菲特遇见了查理芒格

329
00:11:51,539 --> 00:11:54,220
两人第一次聊天就聊了四个小时

330
00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:56,039
从投资谈到人生

331
00:11:56,039 --> 00:11:57,549
再谈到人性

332
00:11:57,549 --> 00:12:01,669
从此他们开始了一段持续60多年的思想合伙

333
00:12:01,669 --> 00:12:04,750
那时的巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生

334
00:12:04,750 --> 00:12:06,599
专注烟蒂股策略

335
00:12:06,599 --> 00:12:08,558
哪怕是濒临倒闭的公司

336
00:12:08,558 --> 00:12:11,639
只要价格够低就能套利退出

337
00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:13,299
而芒格则告诉他

338
00:12:13,299 --> 00:12:15,220
与其买一家八折公司

339
00:12:15,220 --> 00:12:17,960
不如用合理价格买一流企业

340
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,080
他说服巴菲特改变方向

341
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,899
从捡便宜转向卖优秀

342
00:12:22,899 --> 00:12:25,740
It ainly field that a feel differently on

343
00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:26,659
Really goes way back

344
00:12:26,659 --> 00:12:29,100
When he when he weaned me away

345
00:12:29,100 --> 00:12:31,879
He actually hit me over the head with him two by four

346
00:12:31,879 --> 00:12:38,340
But from the idea of buying social companies at very cheap prices

347
00:12:38,340 --> 00:12:40,399
Knowing that there was some small profit in

348
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:42,279
And looking for really wonderful businesses that

349
00:12:42,279 --> 00:12:43,480
We could buy in fair prices

350
00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,860
So he is in terms of quality of business

351
00:12:46,860 --> 00:12:48,299
Quality of individual

352
00:12:48,299 --> 00:12:49,139
I mean he

353
00:12:49,139 --> 00:12:50,240
He is

354
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:51,600
He's kept me from a

355
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:56,028
Lot of mistakes in terms of getting in with people

356
00:12:56,028 --> 00:12:58,589
That might be a mistake to be in with as well

357
00:12:58,589 --> 00:13:00,299
As as business as he's

358
00:13:00,299 --> 00:13:01,919
It's been heavy lifting out his part

359
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:04,940
But he's he's improved my behavior ha ha

360
00:13:04,940 --> 00:13:06,139
I don't think i did anything

361
00:13:06,139 --> 00:13:09,590
But maybe cause warn to go

362
00:13:09,590 --> 00:13:10,870
Where he was gonna go anyway

363
00:13:10,870 --> 00:13:11,850
A little faster

364
00:13:11,850 --> 00:13:13,309
And i don't think i changed him

365
00:13:13,309 --> 00:13:14,980
I think he would have been there anyway

366
00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:17,480
巴菲特第一次把这套理念付诸实践

367
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:18,779
是在1972年

368
00:13:18,779 --> 00:13:20,740
伯克希尔收购了喜事糖果

369
00:13:20,740 --> 00:13:22,679
投资仅2500万美元

370
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,818
却在未来几十年带来持续现金流

371
00:13:25,818 --> 00:13:27,099
接下来的几年

372
00:13:27,099 --> 00:13:28,678
伯克希尔陆续出手

373
00:13:28,678 --> 00:13:31,318
1973年增持华盛顿邮报

374
00:13:31,318 --> 00:13:34,279
与凯瑟琳格雷厄姆建立深厚信任

375
00:13:34,279 --> 00:13:37,320
1983年收购内布拉斯加家具城

376
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,789
典型的本土零售护城河企业

377
00:13:39,789 --> 00:13:42,470
1988年大举买入可口可乐

378
00:13:42,470 --> 00:13:44,009
持股约6.7%

379
00:13:44,009 --> 00:13:46,568
成为最成功的长期投资之一

380
00:13:46,568 --> 00:13:47,808
1978年

381
00:13:49,948 --> 00:13:53,129
两人组成了投资史上最重要的合伙人组合

382
00:13:53,129 --> 00:13:55,129
There was more potential for the long paul

383
00:13:55,129 --> 00:13:56,809
And getting in the good companies

384
00:13:56,809 --> 00:13:57,490
Nice

385
00:13:57,490 --> 00:13:58,289
We both wanted them

386
00:13:58,289 --> 00:13:58,940
Cheap

387
00:13:58,940 --> 00:13:59,779
But cheap

388
00:13:59,779 --> 00:14:03,769
Good companies was the field that we shifted to

389
00:14:03,929 --> 00:14:05,549
他们用几十年的时间

390
00:14:05,549 --> 00:14:06,490
把伯克希尔

391
00:14:06,490 --> 00:14:10,339
从套利机器变成了优质企业的长期持有平台

392
00:14:10,339 --> 00:14:11,658
Because of charlie

393
00:14:11,658 --> 00:14:12,938
I've become a lot better than

394
00:14:12,938 --> 00:14:14,658
I would have been he stretched

395
00:14:14,658 --> 00:14:15,359
My thinking

396
00:14:15,359 --> 00:14:16,019
Opened up

397
00:14:16,019 --> 00:14:16,870
My vision

398
00:14:16,870 --> 00:14:19,309
He helped me evolve from an ape to a human

399
00:14:19,309 --> 00:14:21,549
Being at record speed without him

400
00:14:21,549 --> 00:14:23,980
I'd probably be a lot poorer

401
00:14:24,259 --> 00:14:25,460
2023年

402
00:14:25,460 --> 00:14:26,759
查理芒格去世

403
00:14:26,759 --> 00:14:28,120
享年99岁

404
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:29,700
留下的不只是智慧

405
00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:32,818
更是一种难以复制的伙伴关系

406
00:14:33,019 --> 00:14:35,019
一个人可以学会投资方法

407
00:14:35,019 --> 00:14:37,979
但他复制不了另一个查理芒格

408
00:14:40,679 --> 00:14:43,019
2008年金融危机爆发

409
00:14:43,019 --> 00:14:44,440
市场陷入恐慌

410
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,200
雷曼兄弟轰然倒塌

411
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:47,970
高盛也岌岌可危

412
00:14:47,970 --> 00:14:49,549
就在最混乱的时刻

413
00:14:49,549 --> 00:14:50,850
巴菲特出手了

414
00:14:50,850 --> 00:14:52,070
他只用一个电话

415
00:14:52,070 --> 00:14:55,529
一封传真便敲定向高盛注资50亿美元

416
00:14:55,529 --> 00:14:56,850
没有讨价还价

417
00:14:56,850 --> 00:14:58,409
没有冗长谈判

418
00:14:58,409 --> 00:14:59,830
因为在那个时刻

419
00:14:59,830 --> 00:15:02,289
他的名字本身就是星星

420
00:15:02,289 --> 00:15:04,159
这一切并非偶然

421
00:15:04,159 --> 00:15:05,960
早在1970年代末

422
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,509
巴菲特就已经为生育资本埋下伏笔

423
00:15:08,509 --> 00:15:11,490
当时伯克希尔旗下的blue chip stamps

424
00:15:11,490 --> 00:15:14,279
正在逆势收购wesco financial的控股权

425
00:15:14,279 --> 00:15:15,460
恰逢熊市

426
00:15:15,460 --> 00:15:16,580
美股暴跌

427
00:15:16,580 --> 00:15:18,620
市场对内幕交易高度紧张

428
00:15:18,620 --> 00:15:20,059
在公众压力下

429
00:15:20,059 --> 00:15:21,860
美国证监会发起调查

430
00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:26,649
面对调查

431
00:15:26,649 --> 00:15:29,149
巴菲特和芒格没有请律师设防

432
00:15:29,149 --> 00:15:30,509
也没有任何拖延

433
00:15:30,509 --> 00:15:33,139
他们选择全程配合所有文件

434
00:15:33,139 --> 00:15:34,019
通信记录

435
00:15:34,019 --> 00:15:36,059
资产评估悉数公开

436
00:15:36,059 --> 00:15:37,269
毫无保留

437
00:15:40,309 --> 00:15:42,210
威斯科成功并入伯克希尔

438
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:45,259
那一次

439
00:15:47,860 --> 00:15:49,059
1991年

440
00:15:49,059 --> 00:15:50,860
所罗门事件震动华尔街

441
00:15:50,860 --> 00:15:53,580
所罗门兄弟因在国债拍卖中违规操作

442
00:15:55,750 --> 00:15:57,129
就在最危急的关头

443
00:15:57,129 --> 00:15:58,450
巴菲特临危受命

444
00:15:58,450 --> 00:15:59,669
出任代理CEO

445
00:15:59,669 --> 00:16:00,899
带队自救

446
00:16:00,899 --> 00:16:03,299
他亲自走上国会听证会的发言席

447
00:16:03,299 --> 00:16:05,100
对满屋议员说出那句

448
00:16:05,100 --> 00:16:07,659
至今仍被投资圈反复引用的警告

449
00:16:07,659 --> 00:16:09,220
Lose money for the firm

450
00:16:09,220 --> 00:16:11,740
And i will be understanding lose a shredder

451
00:16:11,740 --> 00:16:12,940
Reputation for the firm

452
00:16:12,940 --> 00:16:14,840
And i will be ruthless

453
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:15,980
那一刻

454
00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:18,019
巴菲特用声誉守住了所罗门

455
00:16:18,019 --> 00:16:20,320
也守住了伯克希尔的信条底线

456
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,620
之后的几十年里

457
00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,049
伯克希尔一次次在复杂场景中做出选择

458
00:16:25,049 --> 00:16:26,509
收购JI后

459
00:16:26,509 --> 00:16:28,950
他们主动清理所有历史遗留风险

460
00:16:28,950 --> 00:16:30,129
宁可赔钱

461
00:16:30,129 --> 00:16:31,549
也绝不隐瞒

462
00:16:31,549 --> 00:16:33,769
收购BNSF铁路公司时

463
00:16:33,769 --> 00:16:35,029
面对整合压力

464
00:16:35,029 --> 00:16:37,289
巴菲特承诺保留现有劳动合同

465
00:16:37,289 --> 00:16:38,629
守住信任基础

466
00:16:38,629 --> 00:16:40,990
富国银行假账户丑闻爆发

467
00:16:40,990 --> 00:16:42,049
作为大股东

468
00:16:42,049 --> 00:16:43,549
他没有为利润辩解

469
00:16:43,549 --> 00:16:44,590
只说了一句

470
00:16:44,590 --> 00:16:46,389
这是我们文化中的耻辱

471
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:48,330
We can afford to lose money

472
00:16:48,330 --> 00:16:50,139
Even a lot of money

473
00:16:50,139 --> 00:16:52,600
We cannot afford to lose reputation

474
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,919
Even a shredder reputation

475
00:16:54,919 --> 00:16:56,360
不需要解释的信任

476
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,240
资本成为伯克希尔的隐形护城河

477
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,039
也是别人无法复制的资本

478
00:17:04,618 --> 00:17:05,118
Yes

479
00:17:05,118 --> 00:17:06,759
Warren likes to win

480
00:17:06,759 --> 00:17:08,538
Warren is so competitive that

481
00:17:08,538 --> 00:17:09,538
If you watch his life

482
00:17:10,538 --> 00:17:11,179
You will find that

483
00:17:11,179 --> 00:17:12,219
He doesn't play

484
00:17:12,219 --> 00:17:13,598
But he's not good at

485
00:17:14,230 --> 00:17:17,170
在投资这门看似靠聪明决胜的游戏里

486
00:17:17,170 --> 00:17:20,569
巴菲特始终强调的是能力圈

487
00:17:20,569 --> 00:17:23,170
And important thing in investing is not

488
00:17:23,170 --> 00:17:24,670
How big your circle is

489
00:17:24,670 --> 00:17:26,250
It's knowing where the parameter is

490
00:17:26,250 --> 00:17:28,369
So that you stay within uh

491
00:17:28,369 --> 00:17:29,809
The circle

492
00:17:29,970 --> 00:17:30,890
几十年来

493
00:17:30,890 --> 00:17:33,190
太多新概念新模式席卷市场

494
00:17:33,190 --> 00:17:34,890
千禧年的互联网泡沫

495
00:17:34,890 --> 00:17:36,289
后来的社交网络

496
00:17:36,289 --> 00:17:37,888
区块链加密货币

497
00:17:37,888 --> 00:17:39,209
在这些热潮中

498
00:17:39,209 --> 00:17:41,108
巴菲特大多选择不参与

499
00:17:41,108 --> 00:17:43,750
不是因为他不关注不研究

500
00:17:43,750 --> 00:17:46,089
而是因为他认为我不懂

501
00:17:46,089 --> 00:17:47,589
所以我不碰

502
00:17:47,589 --> 00:17:50,789
And i do know what i call my circle of competence

503
00:17:50,789 --> 00:17:53,089
So i i i stay within that circle

504
00:17:53,089 --> 00:17:55,029
And i don't worry about things

505
00:17:55,029 --> 00:17:57,119
They're outside that circle

506
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:58,660
他错过了微软

507
00:17:58,660 --> 00:18:00,000
错过了亚马逊

508
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,920
错过了无数能让他账面财富翻倍的机会

509
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,680
但他从不后悔

510
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,789
I met bill gates on july

511
00:18:07,789 --> 00:18:08,150
Fifth

512
00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:08,509
Nineteen

513
00:18:08,509 --> 00:18:09,509
Ninety one

514
00:18:09,509 --> 00:18:11,109
He spent about ten hours

515
00:18:11,109 --> 00:18:12,690
Explaining microsoft to me

516
00:18:12,690 --> 00:18:13,049
He

517
00:18:13,049 --> 00:18:14,130
He did it with an orangutan

518
00:18:14,130 --> 00:18:14,490
The next day

519
00:18:14,490 --> 00:18:15,410
He said that was easier

520
00:18:15,410 --> 00:18:16,849
But uh uh uh

521
00:18:16,849 --> 00:18:18,930
And i you know i knew he was a terrific guy

522
00:18:18,930 --> 00:18:21,388
And a terrific manager and microsoft was a terrific company

523
00:18:21,388 --> 00:18:24,429
But i i didn't know enough to make the decision

524
00:18:24,429 --> 00:18:26,588
I really didn't know what other people were doing in the field

525
00:18:26,588 --> 00:18:30,299
And and so it was outside of what i call my circle of competence

526
00:18:30,299 --> 00:18:33,119
I don't worry about the things that i missed that are outside

527
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,259
My circle of competence of evaluating

528
00:18:35,259 --> 00:18:38,279
I do i have missed things who are within my circle

529
00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:39,880
And that's a terrible mistake

530
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:40,940
直到苹果

531
00:18:40,940 --> 00:18:42,759
他才破例重仓科技股

532
00:18:42,759 --> 00:18:44,119
不是因为科技

533
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,740
而是因为他终于看懂了苹果不是科技公司

534
00:18:47,740 --> 00:18:49,449
是消费品牌

535
00:18:49,449 --> 00:18:51,449
他理解品牌的护城河

536
00:18:51,449 --> 00:18:52,848
理解用户粘性

537
00:18:52,848 --> 00:18:54,128
理解现金流

538
00:18:54,128 --> 00:18:55,449
所以他买

539
00:18:55,449 --> 00:18:57,588
而其他那些他不理解的公司

540
00:18:57,588 --> 00:18:59,169
他解释不了的模型

541
00:18:59,169 --> 00:19:00,769
他无法评估的预期

542
00:19:00,769 --> 00:19:02,249
即使市场再热

543
00:19:02,249 --> 00:19:03,819
他也不会碰

544
00:19:03,819 --> 00:19:05,519
他投的是自己看得懂

545
00:19:05,519 --> 00:19:08,119
摸得着长期稳定的生意

546
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,880
这份专注也带来了超越时间的复利

547
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,119
Well that was the most useful idea that band graham

548
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,579
Ever had have the mindset of somebody

549
00:19:18,579 --> 00:19:21,640
That was buying into a business planning to hold for the long pol

550
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,849
Use that mindset from thinking of stocks

551
00:19:24,849 --> 00:19:26,490
And we nether one of us

552
00:19:26,490 --> 00:19:29,339
Have ever departed from that one

553
00:19:29,339 --> 00:19:30,519
1964年

554
00:19:30,519 --> 00:19:32,660
美国运通卷入色拉油丑闻

555
00:19:32,660 --> 00:19:33,720
市场恐慌

556
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:34,880
股价腰斩

557
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,740
但巴菲特发现品牌信任没有崩塌

558
00:19:37,740 --> 00:19:39,680
持卡人没有离开商户

559
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:40,609
依然在用

560
00:19:40,609 --> 00:19:41,410
The first one

561
00:19:41,410 --> 00:19:43,710
I ever a member of that kind of was american express

562
00:19:43,710 --> 00:19:45,049
When the salad oil

563
00:19:45,049 --> 00:19:46,029
Swindle

564
00:19:46,029 --> 00:19:47,319
Pretty well

565
00:19:47,319 --> 00:19:48,799
Clobbered that stock for a

566
00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:51,599
While warren went around in a lot of research

567
00:19:51,599 --> 00:19:54,159
And decided that it was a minor blip

568
00:19:54,159 --> 00:19:55,199
The market was wrong

569
00:19:55,199 --> 00:19:56,098
And he was right

570
00:19:56,098 --> 00:19:58,078
于是他重仓买入

571
00:19:58,078 --> 00:19:59,179
坚定持有

572
00:19:59,179 --> 00:20:02,099
直到今天已经将近60年

573
00:20:02,099 --> 00:20:03,440
1988年

574
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,019
可口可乐股价低迷

575
00:20:05,019 --> 00:20:06,039
前景不明

576
00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:07,319
巴菲特看懂了

577
00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:08,420
这不是饮料

578
00:20:08,420 --> 00:20:10,259
而是全球最强的品牌

579
00:20:10,259 --> 00:20:13,259
于是伯克希尔果断投入10.2亿美元

580
00:20:13,259 --> 00:20:14,970
持股约6.7%

581
00:20:14,970 --> 00:20:16,190
30多年过去

582
00:20:16,190 --> 00:20:18,750
这笔投资带来了数倍的账面回报

583
00:20:18,750 --> 00:20:21,119
更带来无数次稳定分红

584
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,779
I don't think that warren would have made all the money

585
00:20:23,779 --> 00:20:26,400
That berkshire made in coca cola

586
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:27,660
2000年

587
00:20:27,660 --> 00:20:29,759
穆迪从邓白氏集团独立上市

588
00:20:29,759 --> 00:20:32,440
巴菲特注意到他在全球评级体系中

589
00:20:34,049 --> 00:20:35,150
他低调建仓

590
00:20:35,150 --> 00:20:37,690
长期持有至今已超过20年

591
00:20:37,690 --> 00:20:40,259
依然是伯克希尔核心资产之一

592
00:20:40,259 --> 00:20:43,380
Competency is a relative concept

593
00:20:43,380 --> 00:20:44,940
And what a lot of us

594
00:20:44,940 --> 00:20:47,648
Need including the one speaking is

595
00:20:47,648 --> 00:20:50,169
What i needed to get ahead was to commit to meet

596
00:20:50,169 --> 00:20:52,128
Against idiots and luckily

597
00:20:52,128 --> 00:20:53,568
There's a large supply

598
00:20:53,568 --> 00:20:54,519
And

599
00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,869
这是巴菲特身上最被忽视也最难模仿的克制

600
00:21:00,869 --> 00:21:03,349
在聪明人都想多做一点的时代

601
00:21:03,349 --> 00:21:05,210
他却选择了少做一点

602
00:21:05,210 --> 00:21:07,109
但做得更久

603
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,319
Well i think the modern berkshire is pretty much

604
00:21:14,319 --> 00:21:16,109
All a reflection of warren

605
00:21:16,109 --> 00:21:17,750
巴菲特不抽雪茄

606
00:21:17,750 --> 00:21:19,049
不开豪车

607
00:21:19,049 --> 00:21:21,250
几十年住在同一栋房子

608
00:21:21,250 --> 00:21:24,009
每天去同一家餐厅喝可乐

609
00:21:24,009 --> 00:21:25,130
吃薯条

610
00:21:25,130 --> 00:21:26,230
翻财报

611
00:21:26,230 --> 00:21:28,490
过着简单重复的生活

612
00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:30,690
I constantly talk about berkshire

613
00:21:30,690 --> 00:21:33,509
A seamless web of deserve trust

614
00:21:33,509 --> 00:21:35,710
It's such a simple idea

615
00:21:35,710 --> 00:21:38,640
Then bureaucracy has so much

616
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,460
Dysfunction and evil buried in it

617
00:21:41,460 --> 00:21:43,099
Even when the people in the

618
00:21:43,099 --> 00:21:44,819
Bureaucracy are not awful

619
00:21:44,819 --> 00:21:48,279
People running a system that has practically

620
00:21:48,279 --> 00:21:50,000
No bureaucracy at headquarters

621
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,519
Hugely advantages to berkshire

622
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,559
他们是怎么做到的

623
00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:02,339
不是靠制度创新

624
00:22:02,339 --> 00:22:04,470
而是靠常识与节制

625
00:22:04,470 --> 00:22:06,529
就像杂技演员在舞台上

626
00:22:06,529 --> 00:22:08,930
一次同时耍弄25个牛奶瓶

627
00:22:08,930 --> 00:22:10,849
他们并不是天赋异禀

628
00:22:10,849 --> 00:22:12,960
而是从一个瓶子开始

629
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,240
先练一个

630
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,700
再加到两个三个

631
00:22:16,700 --> 00:22:19,000
每天练不断练

632
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,250
慢慢的才能稳稳掌控所有

633
00:22:22,250 --> 00:22:23,869
伯克希尔也是一样

634
00:22:23,869 --> 00:22:26,430
他不是一开始就控制几十家公司

635
00:22:26,430 --> 00:22:28,369
而是从一家公司开始

636
00:22:28,369 --> 00:22:30,809
再到两家三家

637
00:22:30,809 --> 00:22:32,910
在不断试错与沉淀中

638
00:22:32,910 --> 00:22:35,029
逐步建立起一个完整系统

639
00:22:35,029 --> 00:22:37,529
But the truth is that does some extent berkshires

640
00:22:37,529 --> 00:22:38,430
My creation

641
00:22:38,430 --> 00:22:43,339
So i would like people to the tent that people regard that

642
00:22:43,339 --> 00:22:43,759
Well

643
00:22:43,759 --> 00:22:44,660
That's what counts

644
00:22:44,660 --> 00:22:45,059
I mean

645
00:22:45,059 --> 00:22:46,000
That's my painting

646
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,619
我们永远不会借钱买股票

647
00:22:49,179 --> 00:22:50,618
我们不预测市场

648
00:22:50,618 --> 00:22:52,338
只看公司

649
00:22:52,969 --> 00:22:55,808
我们唯一的任务是把股东的钱

650
00:22:55,808 --> 00:22:58,128
当自己的钱一样花

651
00:22:58,769 --> 00:23:00,490
这些话听起来朴素

652
00:23:00,490 --> 00:23:03,269
但构成了伯克希尔的核心文化

653
00:23:03,269 --> 00:23:06,170
克制诚实慢

654
00:23:06,170 --> 00:23:07,950
And i hope two things about it

655
00:23:07,950 --> 00:23:08,150
Actually

656
00:23:08,150 --> 00:23:11,909
I hope a that that people realize that that model works

657
00:23:11,909 --> 00:23:13,388
And why it works and so on

658
00:23:13,388 --> 00:23:15,669
Because it is it does conflict with certain

659
00:23:15,669 --> 00:23:18,380
Management theory that over the years

660
00:23:18,380 --> 00:23:19,740
And secondly

661
00:23:19,740 --> 00:23:22,180
The important thing is that it that it lasts well

662
00:23:22,180 --> 00:23:23,200
Beyond me

663
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,220
这不仅是他对一家公司最后的期待

664
00:23:26,220 --> 00:23:29,980
也是一个创作者对自己作品的最终托付

665
00:23:29,980 --> 00:23:34,210
为什么世界上没有第二个巴菲特时代的馈赠

666
00:23:34,210 --> 00:23:35,690
浮存金的魔法

667
00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:39,589
独一无二的芒格不解释的信任能力

668
00:23:39,589 --> 00:23:42,160
圈的坚守缺一不可

669
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,319
他的慷慨步道并不是为了教世界怎么投资

670
00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:49,240
而是几十年如一日的每天早晨走进办公室

671
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:53,210
就像米开朗基罗走进西斯廷教堂去作画

672
00:23:53,210 --> 00:23:54,309
对他而言

673
00:23:54,309 --> 00:23:56,990
伯克希尔哈撒韦就是那座教堂

674
00:23:56,990 --> 00:24:00,230
一笔一画几十年未曾停歇

675
00:24:00,509 --> 00:24:02,170
它既是他的投资标准

676
00:24:02,170 --> 00:24:04,849
也是他理想中企业运作的样子

677
00:24:04,849 --> 00:24:06,730
就像米开朗基罗曾说

678
00:24:06,730 --> 00:24:09,410
如果人们知道我为掌握这门技艺

679
00:24:09,410 --> 00:24:10,789
付出了多少努力

680
00:24:10,789 --> 00:24:13,880
他们就不会觉得这成就那么神奇

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