【UNRIVALED INVESTING】Adobe：为何大空头迈克尔·伯里在疯狂抄底？

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今日无与伦比的国家，我们今天要讨论的是Adobe或B股票

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许多聪明的投资者正在挠头思考

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在思考这个问题

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随着股价承压

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在这段视频中我现在就要下结论

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我认为Adobe是一家深度价值型股票

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一家市盈率偏低的公司

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自由现金流市盈率较低

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尤其是考虑到其极高的质量价值

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因此我认为重要的是要认识到深度价值

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许多非常精明的投资者现在开始买入Adobe股票

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这是其中一个观点

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我完全理解这个观点

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另一个我认为也值得探讨和分享的观点

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我将在本视频中谈到我的个人投资清单

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无与伦比的投资清单

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因此频道名称为'无与伦比投资'

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而这份清单

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大多数公司都会失败

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并且清单是设计得与众不同

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特立独行地设计

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因此它符合我个人的选股标准，而Adobe

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虽然属于深度价值

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一些非常精明的投资者或正在捡漏

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Adobe表现良好我并不感到意外

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如果Adobe从现在开始表现良好

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但它并未通过我的清单标准，所以我们在这段视频中要兼顾两方面

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Adobe当前的情况如何

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如果你喜欢教育性的投资内容

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请务必点赞支持

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点击订阅按钮

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现在让我们看看Adobe的情况

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这并不令人意外

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一些深度价值投资者开始关注

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因为过去五年股价已损失近50%价值

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与此同时

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核心销售额

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现金流

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盈利能力持续扩张

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因此你拥有

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Michael Berry指出

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你知道的

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知名做空者同时也是

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你知道的

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长期看好方的精明投资者

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据报道正在增持Adobe股票

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我认为这一点非常重要

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并需对此保持警惕

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在经历了这五年周期后

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股价已损失近50%

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投资者开始说

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等等，等等

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相对于企业而言自由现金流相当便宜

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我认为人工智能也在捕捉到这一点

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因为当我使用这个免费工具时，它利用了

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最前沿的技术

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随着人工智能的提升

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Flash也会变得更强大

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因此它可以分析全球任何公司并提供框架

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你知道的

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帮助你理解它

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免费播客

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免费视频

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免费获取全球任何公司的深度研究报告

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所以当它分析Adobe时

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它表示肯定

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总体风险收益比有利

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 upside高达数百个百分点

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 downside可能下跌

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甚至可能更好

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因此

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我的观点基本与该框架一致

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我们看到什么

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从他们的财报来看

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当我们查看财报时

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第一季度营收达64亿美元

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仅在第一季度

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这是一家业务多元化的公司

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仍在以约12%的速度增长

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仍保持着极高的利润率

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利润率约40%

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可以看到他们创下了纪录

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本季度运营现金流近30亿美元

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想想看60亿美元营收和近30亿美元运营现金流

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这是一家优质企业

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这就是现金奶牛

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他们积极回购股票

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回购了800万股

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但股价仍下跌约8%

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在许多人看来

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嗯

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这似乎是个强劲季度

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为何股价下跌

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有几个原因

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为什么

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首先CEO即将离职

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担任CEO十八年

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在Adobe任职十八年

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他说道

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是的

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我要离开了

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我们要找一个能经营公司的接班人

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他说

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听着

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我已经做了

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你知道的

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上百次财报电话会议

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我经验丰富

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但我想要找到下一个能带领公司十年发展的领导者

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考虑到当前对

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AI冲击Adobe的担忧

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看到顶头上司离职

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这让人信心不足

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我们在很多软件公司都见过这种情况

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你知道的，你看

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我不会点名

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沃伦·巴菲特说过

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呃

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你知道的

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被行业批评

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被个人表扬

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但有些公开的CEO会说

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我觉得我的股票被低估了

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然后他们

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你知道他们会抛售数千万美元的股票

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这种故事在软件行业司空见惯

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我们必须认识到这一点

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呃

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所以我看他赚得盆满钵满

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每年赚数千万美元

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现在形势艰难了

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现在

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这可能是最严峻的挑战

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他并不特别老

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他刚过六十岁

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让CEO在

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最敏感的时刻离职

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Adobe面临

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生存危机

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是的

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船上的其他人可能在想

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啊

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船长突然跳船了

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嗯

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这意味什么呢

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所以这就是

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股价承压的关键原因

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另一个关键原因是

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这有点过度解读财报细节

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因此你的年度经常性收入

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当你观察这家企业

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可以视为大量订阅服务的集合

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即其年度化后的表现

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在去年年底

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约为256亿美元

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增长至261亿美元

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仅略低于

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因此新增订阅收入增长约4亿美元

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他们的订阅收入

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其年度化经常性收入在本季度增长约4亿美元

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若观察前一年的情况

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增长接近4600万美元

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因此出现了明显放缓

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投资者预期这一阶段应接近4.5亿美元

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因此存在一定失望

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他们看到增速较前一年放缓

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部分源于规模效应

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部分源于担忧

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嗯

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AI是否正在侵蚀边缘市场

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比如不需要

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完整Adobe解决方案的创作者用户

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我

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就我个人而言

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当我考虑我的

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我曾使用创意云进行视频编辑

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那时我

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你知道的

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录制视频

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然后用创意云去除背景噪音

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我已不再这样操作

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找到了更低成本且功能更强的替代方案

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你知道的

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我认为Adobe仍将面临边际增长挑战

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对于那些认为

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或许我不需要法拉利

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当可以

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拥有特斯拉时

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这就是我的看法

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许多人会开始自我反思

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嗯

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面对各种解决方案

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这也是普遍观点

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因此新收入增长放缓

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但不会归零

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仍新增4亿美元

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数额巨大

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但需注意增速放缓令投资者担忧

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第三大股价下跌原因

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尽管上一季度表现强劲

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现在他们谈到视觉效果

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2026年圣丹斯电影节首映的85%电影均使用Adobe创意云解决方案制作

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采用Adobe创意云解决方案

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这意味着专业用户非常青睐这一工具

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这正是主导地位

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专业人士使用创意云高效完成工作

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用于剪辑影片

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让画面更美观

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然而

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他们也指出

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这是Adobe业务的又一牺牲品

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你知道的

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Adobe的业务

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其传统图库业务大幅下滑主要因AI技术

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因为人们不再会说

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为什么我要付费购买图库素材

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当我自己能生成AI图像时

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是的

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人们会接受这种观点

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这个AI图像同样出色

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可能比某些图库素材更好

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因此

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你知道的

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这又是另一个例子

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正在蚕食Adobe的利润空间

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现在

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当我们分析Adobe业务

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我之前已提到

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存在专业用户群体

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普通消费者

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创意创作者

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营销专业人士

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涵盖多个产品线

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当我们观察众多

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你知道的

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潜在客户

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当我们审视Adobe

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我说

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实际涉及数千万用户

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考虑三大用户群体

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包括企业与专业用户、普通消费者

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以及Acrobat

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00:08:49,779 --> 00:08:50,659
Acrobat负责

244
00:08:50,659 --> 00:08:51,000
你知道的

245
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:51,720
PDF创建

246
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:52,480
编辑

247
00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,359
电子签名及安全

248
00:08:54,359 --> 00:08:57,438
是轻量级设计工具，用于快速制作社交图形

249
00:08:57,438 --> 00:08:58,859
传单和演示文稿

250
00:08:58,859 --> 00:09:03,269
然后对于创作者和创意专业人士

251
00:09:03,269 --> 00:09:03,490
你知道的

252
00:09:03,490 --> 00:09:07,090
旗舰专业创意套件是创意云

253
00:09:07,090 --> 00:09:08,330
其中包括Photoshop

254
00:09:08,330 --> 00:09:08,769
Illustrator

255
00:09:08,769 --> 00:09:09,129
Premiere

256
00:09:09,129 --> 00:09:10,419
Pro After Effects

257
00:09:10,419 --> 00:09:11,039
嗯

258
00:09:11,039 --> 00:09:12,279
这也是用于设计

259
00:09:12,279 --> 00:09:13,120
照片编辑

260
00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:14,679
视频制作和插画

261
00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,460
Firefly正在利用生成式

262
00:09:17,460 --> 00:09:19,120
AI整合在所有功能之上

263
00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,179
然后还有营销工具

264
00:09:21,179 --> 00:09:21,679
你知道的

265
00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:22,179
例如

266
00:09:22,179 --> 00:09:25,159
他们的Adobe Experience Platform或AP

267
00:09:25,159 --> 00:09:30,399
这是一个实时客户数据平台，统一客户档案并驱动

268
00:09:30,399 --> 00:09:31,360
个性化

269
00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,440
分析和受众细分，助力企业营销

270
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:35,120
所以可以想象

271
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:35,980
正如你所知

272
00:09:35,980 --> 00:09:39,059
在企业中工作的人员想要了解

273
00:09:39,059 --> 00:09:39,259
嘿

274
00:09:39,259 --> 00:09:41,619
我们的广告预算有效吗

275
00:09:41,619 --> 00:09:42,019
你知道的

276
00:09:42,019 --> 00:09:45,250
这是否在帮助我们实现增长目标

277
00:09:45,250 --> 00:09:46,669
签约新客户

278
00:09:46,669 --> 00:09:48,690
这些确实是三大业务板块

279
00:09:48,690 --> 00:09:50,169
在思考Adobe时

280
00:09:50,169 --> 00:09:54,649
我的第一反应是企业用户和消费者群体最差

281
00:09:54,649 --> 00:09:57,669
而这种直觉完全错误

282
00:09:57,669 --> 00:10:01,190
当我们观察企业用户和消费者

283
00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:03,789
这一板块实际上增长迅猛

284
00:10:03,789 --> 00:10:06,429
增速约15%

285
00:10:06,429 --> 00:10:08,549
Adobe为何持续领先

286
00:10:08,549 --> 00:10:12,409
凭借PDF标准及Acrobat和AI功能如AI助手

287
00:10:12,409 --> 00:10:16,730
这些功能促使现有用户愿支付更多

288
00:10:16,730 --> 00:10:17,269
说吧

289
00:10:17,269 --> 00:10:18,289
我想利用

290
00:10:18,289 --> 00:10:20,809
AI分析我的PDF文件

291
00:10:20,889 --> 00:10:24,429
Acrobat内置的快速设计工具

292
00:10:24,429 --> 00:10:27,519
正吸引企业用户加入Adobe创意工具

293
00:10:27,519 --> 00:10:30,820
这是试图挑战Canva

294
00:10:30,820 --> 00:10:34,710
这家私营公司及其快速市场份额增长

295
00:10:34,710 --> 00:10:40,909
因此必须认识到Canva作为私营竞争者

296
00:10:40,909 --> 00:10:43,169
年营收约40亿美元

297
00:10:43,169 --> 00:10:44,490
规模小得多

298
00:10:44,490 --> 00:10:48,289
但据说增长速度更快

299
00:10:48,289 --> 00:10:49,929
去年大约四成

300
00:10:49,929 --> 00:10:51,610
显然在抢占份额

301
00:10:51,610 --> 00:10:55,519
这对Adobe来说正在蚕食边缘市场

302
00:10:55,919 --> 00:10:57,460
另一个方面

303
00:10:57,460 --> 00:10:58,120
你知道的

304
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,419
关注创意与营销专业人士

305
00:11:00,419 --> 00:11:03,639
这也是以合理速度增长

306
00:11:03,639 --> 00:11:05,200
约12%的增长率

307
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:09,500
而原因在于创意云订阅用户支付更多

308
00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:11,919
因为像Firefly这样的AI功能

309
00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:13,419
让他们有升级的理由

310
00:11:13,419 --> 00:11:16,919
所以这其实就是他们这里的第一个要点

311
00:11:16,919 --> 00:11:18,039
创意云业务增长

312
00:11:18,039 --> 00:11:21,080
由创意云专业版推动

313
00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:21,919
即

314
00:11:21,919 --> 00:11:27,820
现有客户基于AI工具进行升级

315
00:11:27,820 --> 00:11:32,519
我认为这对你来说是一个极其重要的数据点

316
00:11:32,519 --> 00:11:39,429
需要思考Adobe当前增长的重要部分

317
00:11:39,669 --> 00:11:45,110
并非来自用户基数显著扩大

318
00:11:45,110 --> 00:11:46,809
而是说嘿

319
00:11:46,809 --> 00:11:48,909
我们拥有这些酷炫的

320
00:11:48,909 --> 00:11:50,629
AI工具

321
00:11:51,090 --> 00:11:53,370
我们可以进行升级销售

322
00:11:54,690 --> 00:11:55,269
你知道的

323
00:11:55,269 --> 00:11:57,289
将AI助手整合到Acrobat中

324
00:11:57,289 --> 00:12:00,600
利用创意云的Firefly功能

325
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,120
现在他们升级到专业版了

326
00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:07,059
并非消费者基数显著增长

327
00:12:07,059 --> 00:12:08,700
而是他们在推动升级

328
00:12:08,700 --> 00:12:11,649
将用户推向更高市场

329
00:12:11,649 --> 00:12:15,710
说明我们能通过更多工具挖掘更大价值

330
00:12:15,710 --> 00:12:18,169
我认为这一点需要重视

331
00:12:19,179 --> 00:12:19,580
现在

332
00:12:19,580 --> 00:12:22,139
Adobe的企业营销工具

333
00:12:22,139 --> 00:12:26,139
我认为他们表现相当出色

334
00:12:26,139 --> 00:12:28,249
这帮助大品牌高效创建

335
00:12:28,249 --> 00:12:30,509
个性化并规模化分发内容

336
00:12:30,509 --> 00:12:31,729
借助AI技术

337
00:12:31,729 --> 00:12:34,129
增长率超过30%

338
00:12:34,129 --> 00:12:37,929
这涉及Gen Studio和Adobe体验平台

339
00:12:37,929 --> 00:12:42,500
及年化复收收入增长超30%

340
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:45,019
这是Adobe增长最快的业务

341
00:12:45,019 --> 00:12:47,078
这里有诸多组成部分

342
00:12:47,078 --> 00:12:47,578
你知道的

343
00:12:47,578 --> 00:12:48,278
专业人员

344
00:12:48,278 --> 00:12:48,839
你有

345
00:12:48,839 --> 00:12:49,599
企业用户

346
00:12:49,599 --> 00:12:50,278
消费者

347
00:12:50,278 --> 00:12:51,958
创意营销专业人士

348
00:12:51,958 --> 00:12:54,769
涵盖多种用户群体

349
00:12:54,769 --> 00:12:56,350
所以当我你知道的时候

350
00:12:56,350 --> 00:12:59,318
拉远镜头看看不同方面

351
00:12:59,558 --> 00:13:00,859
你有用户

352
00:13:00,859 --> 00:13:02,899
比如用户界面

353
00:13:02,899 --> 00:13:04,279
用户体验设计

354
00:13:04,639 --> 00:13:07,679
Adobe 已经失去了他们曾有的 Adobe XD

355
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,940
我认为几年前他们就失去了 Figma

356
00:13:09,940 --> 00:13:12,759
Figma 已经占据了这个领域

357
00:13:12,759 --> 00:13:14,559
他们现在显然在说

358
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:15,620
这个业务正面临压力

359
00:13:15,620 --> 00:13:17,919
这个曾经非常 lucrative 的业务

360
00:13:17,919 --> 00:13:19,779
正被生成式技术取代

361
00:13:19,779 --> 00:13:22,000
AI 下一步是核心创意工具

362
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,350
这是一个相对稳定的例子

363
00:13:24,350 --> 00:13:29,139
这些专业人士并未快速更换

364
00:13:29,460 --> 00:13:31,419
但他们正在升级

365
00:13:31,419 --> 00:13:36,399
因为他们从 Creative Cloud 升级到 Creative Cloud Pro

366
00:13:36,399 --> 00:13:38,200
因为 AI 工具的推动

367
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,620
因此你看到稳定且占据优势

368
00:13:40,620 --> 00:13:42,679
因为升级周期

369
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,240
然后是企业营销

370
00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,559
这可能正在扩大份额并增长30%

371
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:47,919
另外

372
00:13:47,919 --> 00:13:50,600
这个业务有多个不同方面

373
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,419
其中一些他们已经失去

374
00:13:52,419 --> 00:13:53,860
有些正在流失

375
00:13:53,860 --> 00:13:59,960
有些因新增功能而升级

376
00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:02,559
但这并非扩大用户群体

377
00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,700
还有一些领域他们表现优异

378
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:08,120
我应该如何看待 Adobe

379
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:08,539
你知道的

380
00:14:08,539 --> 00:14:11,120
相对于无敌投资清单

381
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:11,820
你明白的

382
00:14:11,820 --> 00:14:12,639
考虑

383
00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:14,960
未来几年的回报

384
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:16,200
首先需要认识到

385
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:17,679
这不是财务建议

386
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,559
我只是分享一下我对 Adobe 的看法

387
00:14:20,559 --> 00:14:22,210
可能从这里开始变化

388
00:14:22,210 --> 00:14:23,529
很多事情可能发生

389
00:14:23,529 --> 00:14:25,720
宏观管理执行

390
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:26,820
顺便推荐一下

391
00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:28,100
Doug 是付费会员

392
00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:28,740
他写道

393
00:14:28,740 --> 00:14:30,299
我只成为会员三个月

394
00:14:30,299 --> 00:14:32,899
我对你的服务感到非常满意

395
00:14:32,899 --> 00:14:33,960
这紧随 Brandon

396
00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:35,309
Brandon M 写道

397
00:14:35,309 --> 00:14:37,850
非常感谢几个月前提醒我

398
00:14:37,850 --> 00:14:38,830
无敌投资

399
00:14:38,830 --> 00:14:41,370
我目前盈利七万两千美元

400
00:14:41,370 --> 00:14:43,250
他特别提到一家公司

401
00:14:43,250 --> 00:14:45,070
如果你在寻找有吸引力的投资思路

402
00:14:45,070 --> 00:14:45,610
快来查看

403
00:14:45,610 --> 00:14:46,529
无与伦比的投资策略

404
00:14:46,529 --> 00:14:46,970
顺便说一句

405
00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:48,759
我制作独家视频

406
00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:49,620
就像这个视频

407
00:14:49,620 --> 00:14:50,840
如果你喜欢这个内容

408
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,318
我为持仓公司制作独家视频

409
00:14:54,318 --> 00:14:57,078
我最近刚做了一个视频

410
00:14:57,078 --> 00:15:00,399
一家我持续买入且高度看好的公司

411
00:15:00,399 --> 00:15:00,719
你知道的

412
00:15:00,719 --> 00:15:01,870
一家我喜欢的公司

413
00:15:01,870 --> 00:15:02,990
所以如果你

414
00:15:02,990 --> 00:15:04,470
如果你喜欢这个视频

415
00:15:04,470 --> 00:15:07,450
想要更多投资思路和独家内容

416
00:15:07,450 --> 00:15:10,078
访问unrivalinvesting.com

417
00:15:10,078 --> 00:15:11,538
当我分析

418
00:15:11,538 --> 00:15:13,499
使用我的免费AI工具

419
00:15:13,499 --> 00:15:18,049
它识别出Adobe目前仍是优质企业

420
00:15:18,049 --> 00:15:18,970
从历史数据看

421
00:15:18,970 --> 00:15:21,210
当前状态未必代表未来

422
00:15:21,210 --> 00:15:23,289
但今日观察

423
00:15:23,289 --> 00:15:26,409
这是一家优质企业

424
00:15:26,409 --> 00:15:27,029
你知道的

425
00:15:27,029 --> 00:15:28,490
财务状况稳健

426
00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:30,009
收入质量卓越

427
00:15:30,009 --> 00:15:31,269
拥有大量订阅用户

428
00:15:31,269 --> 00:15:32,690
市场地位强劲

429
00:15:32,690 --> 00:15:33,769
卓越业绩记录

430
00:15:33,769 --> 00:15:36,600
长期为股东创造巨大价值

431
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:37,379
过去五年

432
00:15:37,379 --> 00:15:38,200
并非如此

433
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,100
但放眼长远

434
00:15:40,100 --> 00:15:43,299
从IPO至今表现惊人

435
00:15:43,460 --> 00:15:45,100
当我思考Adobe

436
00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:47,460
市值约百亿美元

437
00:15:47,460 --> 00:15:47,740
现在

438
00:15:47,740 --> 00:15:49,559
积极回购股份

439
00:15:49,559 --> 00:15:50,679
我喜欢它的原因

440
00:15:50,679 --> 00:15:52,600
Adobe，原因在于

441
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:56,629
我认为Adobe目前是深度价值股

442
00:15:56,629 --> 00:15:58,490
意味着价格极低

443
00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:03,740
深度价值投资更关注量化指标

444
00:16:03,740 --> 00:16:04,940
会说

445
00:16:04,940 --> 00:16:05,519
这个价值为

446
00:16:05,519 --> 00:16:05,879
或者

447
00:16:05,879 --> 00:16:08,480
或者你愿意果断买入

448
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:09,340
原因在于

449
00:16:09,340 --> 00:16:14,120
即使在我说的这种低增长情况下

450
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,419
你知道你所说的其实是

451
00:16:16,419 --> 00:16:17,080
我在

452
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:17,360
我在

453
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,139
我今年预计增长约8%

454
00:16:19,139 --> 00:16:21,559
但接下来的五年里

455
00:16:21,559 --> 00:16:24,289
增长率将接近3%

456
00:16:24,289 --> 00:16:27,389
业务增长大幅放缓

457
00:16:27,389 --> 00:16:31,090
但与此同时我还假设利润率压缩

458
00:16:31,090 --> 00:16:36,049
你知道这家公司去年自由现金流超过90亿美元

459
00:16:36,049 --> 00:16:37,529
所以这家公司估值为

460
00:16:37,529 --> 00:16:41,009
你知道大约10倍自由现金流

461
00:16:41,009 --> 00:16:42,070
这一点非常重要

462
00:16:42,070 --> 00:16:45,289
通常你很少看到10%增长的公司

463
00:16:45,289 --> 00:16:47,330
再加上10倍自由现金流

464
00:16:47,330 --> 00:16:49,629
估值倍数极其关键

465
00:16:49,629 --> 00:16:52,450
这通常是个买入机会

466
00:16:52,450 --> 00:16:56,450
除非你担心

467
00:16:56,450 --> 00:16:58,929
假设五到十年后的前景

468
00:16:58,929 --> 00:17:02,210
这就是为什么这再次属于深度价值投资

469
00:17:02,210 --> 00:17:06,269
即使基于非常保守的假设

470
00:17:06,269 --> 00:17:09,869
利润率压缩增长放缓

471
00:17:09,869 --> 00:17:11,519
你知道不

472
00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:15,119
几乎无估值扩张空间

473
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:20,078
但每年约9%的自由现金流返还

474
00:17:20,078 --> 00:17:25,439
未来几年可能实现低个位数复利增长

475
00:17:25,439 --> 00:17:26,858
在这一低情景下

476
00:17:26,858 --> 00:17:28,959
仅凭现有现金流

477
00:17:28,959 --> 00:17:30,269
股东年收益

478
00:17:30,269 --> 00:17:33,069
股东分红收益率约9%+

479
00:17:33,069 --> 00:17:35,049
假设3%增长

480
00:17:35,049 --> 00:17:37,369
小幅估值扩张

481
00:17:37,369 --> 00:17:38,369
是的

482
00:17:38,369 --> 00:17:40,109
可以讨论个位数回报

483
00:17:40,109 --> 00:17:41,569
而如果能实现

484
00:17:41,569 --> 00:17:44,659
接近100-200%的回报

485
00:17:44,659 --> 00:17:46,959
如果你能获得估值提升

486
00:17:46,959 --> 00:17:48,439
并且保持

487
00:17:48,439 --> 00:17:50,719
假设高单数位增长

488
00:17:50,719 --> 00:17:53,150
这一点需要理解

489
00:17:53,150 --> 00:17:55,410
这就是深度价值投资者关注的原因

490
00:17:55,410 --> 00:17:56,690
说这很棒

491
00:17:56,690 --> 00:17:58,170
在保守情况下

492
00:17:58,170 --> 00:17:59,430
我能获得个位数收益

493
00:17:59,430 --> 00:18:00,089
在乐观情况下

494
00:18:00,089 --> 00:18:02,159
我能获得20-30%回报

495
00:18:02,159 --> 00:18:05,278
这就是我想要看到的量化框架

496
00:18:05,278 --> 00:18:08,240
这是有吸引力的估值检验

497
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,380
非常喜欢

498
00:18:09,380 --> 00:18:13,670
但当我查看其他检查项时

499
00:18:13,910 --> 00:18:15,069
这又是又一次

500
00:18:15,069 --> 00:18:16,069
这就是特立独行的

501
00:18:16,069 --> 00:18:18,670
这就是无与伦比的投资清单

502
00:18:18,670 --> 00:18:22,009
我鼓励你思考适合自己的清单是什么

503
00:18:22,009 --> 00:18:25,960
我是根据我喜欢看到的内容构建的

504
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:26,599
因为

505
00:18:26,599 --> 00:18:27,319
例如

506
00:18:27,319 --> 00:18:29,819
管理层对齐对我来说至关重要

507
00:18:29,819 --> 00:18:31,640
因为我更倾向于拥有创始人

508
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,119
或者更倾向于拥有ceo

509
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,720
在行业中深耕多年

510
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,319
有创造大量价值的历史

511
00:18:38,319 --> 00:18:39,980
这让我感觉更安心

512
00:18:39,980 --> 00:18:43,960
因为你永远不知道何时会有石油危机或外部变量

513
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,680
或者ai会颠覆你的业务

514
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,240
他们如何解决这个问题

515
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,720
他们如何应对并蓬勃发展

516
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,720
尽管不可避免的意外挑战

517
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,640
这就是为什么管理层对齐对我如此重要

518
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,480
而且我晚上睡得更好

519
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:02,759
知道你知道啊

520
00:19:02,759 --> 00:19:04,299
如果我们真正对齐

521
00:19:04,299 --> 00:19:05,980
你知道他们是在为自己工作

522
00:19:05,980 --> 00:19:07,839
理想情况下他们是在为我工作

523
00:19:07,839 --> 00:19:08,859
我非常喜欢

524
00:19:08,859 --> 00:19:12,359
而且他们经常接受低于市场薪酬

525
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,039
这样就是双重好处

526
00:19:14,039 --> 00:19:14,660
简直太棒了

527
00:19:14,660 --> 00:19:18,210
他们只为提高股价而努力

528
00:19:18,210 --> 00:19:21,130
所以我喜欢这种管理层对齐的画面

529
00:19:21,130 --> 00:19:22,670
这里在adobe没有这种情况

530
00:19:22,670 --> 00:19:26,119
ceo说

531
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:27,160
我在这里待了很久

532
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:28,500
同事们，我创造了大量价值

533
00:19:28,500 --> 00:19:29,319
过去五年

534
00:19:29,319 --> 00:19:31,650
表现糟糕，唉

535
00:19:31,650 --> 00:19:34,329
ai风险看起来非常令人不安

536
00:19:34,329 --> 00:19:34,970
拜拜

537
00:19:34,970 --> 00:19:36,529
感谢数千万美元

538
00:19:36,529 --> 00:19:38,569
我指的是数亿美元

539
00:19:38,569 --> 00:19:39,970
这就是你看到的

540
00:19:39,970 --> 00:19:41,930
这就是当前管理层的情况

541
00:19:41,930 --> 00:19:44,569
对我来说这太难了

542
00:19:44,569 --> 00:19:45,549
这让我

543
00:19:45,549 --> 00:19:48,710
尽管通过了清单第三项

544
00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:49,750
极具吸引力的估值

545
00:19:49,750 --> 00:19:50,869
我们刚才讨论过

546
00:19:50,869 --> 00:19:52,750
但未通过管理层对齐

547
00:19:52,750 --> 00:19:53,569
我不敢确定

548
00:19:53,569 --> 00:19:53,829
我不确定

549
00:19:53,829 --> 00:19:59,710
你将有一位能够带领这家企业度过不可避免挑战的人

550
00:20:00,088 --> 00:20:01,148
第二个

551
00:20:01,148 --> 00:20:02,808
这更像是个问号

552
00:20:02,808 --> 00:20:03,729
明显的增长

553
00:20:04,848 --> 00:20:07,209
我之前提到过这一点

554
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:12,720
他们当前增长中有多大比例

555
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,470
因为他们说是的

556
00:20:15,470 --> 00:20:17,539
有一个很棒的AI工具

557
00:20:17,980 --> 00:20:19,460
让我们利用

558
00:20:19,460 --> 00:20:19,660
这个

559
00:20:19,660 --> 00:20:24,180
将LLM融入现有客户群

560
00:20:24,180 --> 00:20:26,759
然后进行一次性升级

561
00:20:26,759 --> 00:20:28,079
这是一次性升级

562
00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:29,079
你知道它在哪里

563
00:20:29,079 --> 00:20:30,859
这是一次性加速

564
00:20:30,859 --> 00:20:32,690
一次性收入增长

565
00:20:32,690 --> 00:20:37,250
但之后你的增长会显著放缓

566
00:20:38,529 --> 00:20:40,589
为了持续增长

567
00:20:40,589 --> 00:20:42,150
你需要提高价格

568
00:20:43,670 --> 00:20:47,259
或扩大客户群

569
00:20:47,259 --> 00:20:48,759
或添加新工具

570
00:20:48,759 --> 00:20:50,279
这就是我的看法

571
00:20:50,279 --> 00:20:51,359
我正在观察Adobe

572
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:56,750
他们在这些新增市场中正在失去优势

573
00:20:56,750 --> 00:20:57,329
视角

574
00:20:57,329 --> 00:20:58,069
库存图片

575
00:20:58,069 --> 00:21:00,369
他们失去了用户界面或用户

576
00:21:00,369 --> 00:21:02,529
你知道的UX

577
00:21:02,529 --> 00:21:04,200
他们输给了Figma

578
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:09,420
在我经验中，他们在创意云的利润率正在流失

579
00:21:09,420 --> 00:21:10,480
未在数据中体现

580
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:15,789
但原因在于这次AI的一次性调整

581
00:21:15,789 --> 00:21:18,180
我认为这就是我的

582
00:21:18,180 --> 00:21:20,140
也许可以说这是愤世嫉俗的

583
00:21:20,140 --> 00:21:22,638
我欢迎你的反驳

584
00:21:22,638 --> 00:21:25,979
想知道CEO如何看待这种动态

585
00:21:25,979 --> 00:21:27,079
他说是的

586
00:21:27,079 --> 00:21:28,200
我们将进行现有客户升级

587
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,759
对现有客户进行AI升级周期

588
00:21:31,759 --> 00:21:33,730
这个忠实客户群

589
00:21:33,730 --> 00:21:37,949
但之后将真正取决于定价

590
00:21:37,949 --> 00:21:41,509
因为我们无法快速扩展核心客户群

591
00:21:41,509 --> 00:21:44,229
我们可能在快速扩展某种免费增值产品

592
00:21:44,229 --> 00:21:47,348
顺便说这些新玩家也在这样做

593
00:21:47,348 --> 00:21:49,048
而且增长更快

594
00:21:49,048 --> 00:21:54,730
他们在市场获取方面有更好的商业模式，比如Canva

595
00:21:54,849 --> 00:21:55,329
你知道的

596
00:21:55,329 --> 00:21:58,259
他们明显在抢占市场份额

597
00:21:58,339 --> 00:22:01,640
这就是为什么我觉得有点困难

598
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:01,900
你知道的

599
00:22:01,900 --> 00:22:04,240
当我分析这三个有说服力的估值

600
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:04,880
是的

601
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,349
明显的增长

602
00:22:06,349 --> 00:22:09,990
我想知道新ar r的增长速度会有多快

603
00:22:11,069 --> 00:22:15,569
我们之前讨论的正是股票下跌的原因之一是增长将放缓

604
00:22:15,569 --> 00:22:19,470
我想它可能会从四千万的新扩张中下跌

605
00:22:19,470 --> 00:22:23,230
在接下来的几个季度降至两千万或一千万

606
00:22:23,230 --> 00:22:24,910
我想我们可能会看到

607
00:22:24,910 --> 00:22:25,960
也许我错了

608
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,700
但这让我产生了疑问

609
00:22:27,700 --> 00:22:31,160
Adobe真的存在明显的增长吗

610
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,920
尤其是当我真正相信这一点时

611
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,160
我总把雷·库兹韦尔的书放在手边

612
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,660
是因为接下来的十年

613
00:22:42,500 --> 00:22:45,339
我预期的进步程度

614
00:22:45,339 --> 00:22:47,099
每天宏观环境

615
00:22:47,099 --> 00:22:49,539
我认为有一个非常重要的补充点

616
00:22:49,539 --> 00:22:52,730
我可能会专门做一期视频讨论日常宏观

617
00:22:52,730 --> 00:22:54,130
我可以彻底改变这个观点

618
00:22:54,130 --> 00:22:54,849
天啊

619
00:22:54,849 --> 00:22:55,829
油价将升至150美元

620
00:22:55,829 --> 00:22:56,569
它将暴跌

621
00:22:56,569 --> 00:22:58,329
一切都看空

622
00:22:58,329 --> 00:22:59,650
你可能持有这种观点

623
00:22:59,650 --> 00:23:01,910
但不变的是

624
00:23:01,910 --> 00:23:04,769
我通常会考虑五到十年后的趋势

625
00:23:04,769 --> 00:23:05,910
在五到十年后

626
00:23:05,910 --> 00:23:08,059
我极度看多

627
00:23:08,059 --> 00:23:12,210
人类将取得的巨大进步

628
00:23:12,210 --> 00:23:14,190
无论是否足够聪明

629
00:23:14,190 --> 00:23:18,240
AI、机器人或生物学被彻底解析

630
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,680
我认为现在潜力巨大

631
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,089
为什么需要这个模型在脑海中

632
00:23:25,089 --> 00:23:28,190
你知道奇点正在临近

633
00:23:28,190 --> 00:23:35,720
因为今天的软件可能显得落后

634
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:36,900
三年后

635
00:23:36,900 --> 00:23:39,269
仅凭AI的进步速度

636
00:23:39,269 --> 00:23:45,839
专业用户是否会开始思考Adobe

637
00:23:45,839 --> 00:23:48,259
几年后

638
00:23:48,259 --> 00:23:51,289
然后你会看到用户流失

639
00:23:51,529 --> 00:23:52,589
我还不确定

640
00:23:52,589 --> 00:23:57,190
但这也让他们难以持续

641
00:23:57,190 --> 00:23:57,730
你知道的

642
00:23:57,730 --> 00:24:00,740
进一步提高价格

643
00:24:00,740 --> 00:24:01,240
这有效过

644
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:02,779
增加定价策略

645
00:24:02,779 --> 00:24:03,779
是的AI

646
00:24:03,779 --> 00:24:05,059
我们有升级周期

647
00:24:05,059 --> 00:24:09,339
但CEO明白不能一直这样

648
00:24:09,339 --> 00:24:11,049
这就是我的推测

649
00:24:11,049 --> 00:24:13,640
这就是他现在要离开的部分原因

650
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,000
你会看到这种减速现象

651
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,099
我不认为他想处理这场争斗

652
00:24:18,099 --> 00:24:19,799
我不认为他想处理那个

653
00:24:19,799 --> 00:24:26,130
比如获得用户基数没有疯狂增长的飞机

654
00:24:26,130 --> 00:24:32,598
你知道这个一次性AI增值服务会很出色

655
00:24:32,598 --> 00:24:36,659
这就是我所说的关于营收增长率的一次性

656
00:24:36,659 --> 00:24:38,459
它仍然是持续性的收入模式

657
00:24:38,459 --> 00:24:39,659
别误会我

658
00:24:39,659 --> 00:24:41,459
但我是这样看待这个

659
00:24:41,459 --> 00:24:43,750
我认为增长率将会下降

660
00:24:43,750 --> 00:24:47,329
然后人们会越来越把它当作债券来对待

661
00:24:47,329 --> 00:24:47,549
好的

662
00:24:47,549 --> 00:24:47,990
嗯

663
00:24:47,990 --> 00:24:49,390
也许十倍是合理的

664
00:24:49,390 --> 00:24:50,710
我获得了10%的收益率

665
00:24:50,710 --> 00:24:52,390
因为谁知道那个

666
00:24:52,390 --> 00:24:53,529
你知道周转率是

667
00:24:53,529 --> 00:24:55,170
人们会以多快的速度说

668
00:24:55,170 --> 00:24:55,410
是的

669
00:24:55,410 --> 00:24:58,150
这些新AI工具可以为我制作整部视频

670
00:24:58,150 --> 00:25:00,190
因为我认为这就是发展方向

671
00:25:00,190 --> 00:25:03,390
所以我希望这个关于Adobe的视频

672
00:25:03,390 --> 00:25:05,460
如何同时满足

673
00:25:05,460 --> 00:25:07,200
我认为深入的价值分析

674
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,190
像迈克尔·布里这样的精明投资者

675
00:25:10,190 --> 00:25:13,569
已考虑买入Adobe股票或看跌期权

676
00:25:13,569 --> 00:25:17,190
同时它并未通过无敌投资筛选清单

677
00:25:17,190 --> 00:25:18,630
这完全在预料之中

678
00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:20,390
Adobe从这里发展良好的可能性很大

679
00:25:20,390 --> 00:25:24,089
只是我认为还有其他更让我兴奋的公司

680
00:25:24,089 --> 00:25:25,019
我说道

681
00:25:25,019 --> 00:25:27,519
我可以以类似的十倍市现比买入

682
00:25:27,519 --> 00:25:28,730
现金流市盈倍数

683
00:25:28,730 --> 00:25:30,609
我认为增长轨迹

684
00:25:30,609 --> 00:25:32,230
持久耐用性

685
00:25:32,230 --> 00:25:34,670
这家业务的持续时间可能更长

686
00:25:34,670 --> 00:25:37,558
因此可能有更好的投资机会

687
00:25:37,558 --> 00:25:38,439
在我看来

688
00:25:38,439 --> 00:25:40,078
如果这段视频对你有帮助

689
00:25:40,078 --> 00:25:42,398
非常感谢观看无敌投资频道

690
00:25:42,398 --> 00:25:43,809
请点赞支持

691
00:25:43,809 --> 00:25:44,750
点击订阅按钮

692
00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:45,680
非常感谢

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