BV1VjEe6NEbF · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:02,120 大家好 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:03,100 欢迎回到视野 3 00:00:03,100 --> 00:00:04,120 环球财经 4 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:04,980 我是RENO 5 00:00:04,980 --> 00:00:10,099 现在是美东时间二六年六月十号周三晚上的8.55分 6 00:00:10,099 --> 00:00:11,939 今天的时间非常的晚啊 7 00:00:11,939 --> 00:00:12,359 抱歉 8 00:00:12,359 --> 00:00:15,939 因为今天呢又忘记开麦克风录了两遍 9 00:00:15,939 --> 00:00:16,420 好 10 00:00:16,420 --> 00:00:18,199 咱们抓紧时间收行情 11 00:00:18,199 --> 00:00:22,440 今天的四大指数啊和昨天的开局是一样的 12 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,120 但是结局不一样啊 13 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,399 今天的开盘仍旧是小幅冲高啊 14 00:00:27,399 --> 00:00:29,760 随后呢是被持续抛售 15 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,128 直到今天的尾盘也没有太大的起色 16 00:00:33,128 --> 00:00:36,488 四大指数的跌幅呢都是超过了1% 17 00:00:36,488 --> 00:00:40,210 纳指100是接近了2%的跌幅 18 00:00:40,210 --> 00:00:43,049 另外呢今天的费城半导体指数啊 19 00:00:43,049 --> 00:00:45,270 是没有完成自救 20 00:00:45,270 --> 00:00:48,039 下跌了3.6% 21 00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:51,090 那么收盘呢是跌破了这条上升趋势线 22 00:00:51,090 --> 00:00:56,329 但是啊我提醒一下今天的盘中出现了一些异常 23 00:00:56,329 --> 00:01:00,570 所以呢我提醒大家暂时不要看得太空 24 00:01:00,570 --> 00:01:02,929 多观察一天啊 25 00:01:02,929 --> 00:01:04,709 多观察明天一天啊 26 00:01:04,709 --> 00:01:10,189 咱们稍后讲解为什么以及盘中这个异常在哪里好 27 00:01:10,189 --> 00:01:15,269 咱们今天还是先把这个国际的地缘政治形式给大家过一下 28 00:01:16,079 --> 00:01:17,400 地缘政治的格局啊 29 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:19,120 依旧是瞬息万变啊 30 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,599 谈判的前一秒呢还觉得稳了啊 31 00:01:21,599 --> 00:01:23,400 后一秒就稳不住了 32 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,239 美国和伊朗隔夜互相袭击之后呢 33 00:01:26,239 --> 00:01:28,450 原油价格是小幅走高 34 00:01:28,450 --> 00:01:30,129 美国总统川普警告说 35 00:01:30,129 --> 00:01:33,530 伊朗将为拖延谈判付出代价 36 00:01:33,530 --> 00:01:36,540 并表示呢美国今晚将再次打击伊朗 37 00:01:36,540 --> 00:01:39,780 所以这些因素是共同推高了地缘政治风险 38 00:01:39,780 --> 00:01:41,859 支撑了能源市场 39 00:01:41,859 --> 00:01:43,819 不过这个能源的价格呀 40 00:01:43,819 --> 00:01:46,859 今天其实只是小幅走高啊 41 00:01:46,859 --> 00:01:48,659 大家可能会觉得奇怪啊 42 00:01:48,659 --> 00:01:52,439 尽管这个紧张局势最近呢一直在加剧 43 00:01:52,439 --> 00:01:57,390 但是好像呢原油期货的价格呢从100亿跌下来之后呢 44 00:01:57,390 --> 00:01:59,250 不管你怎么打怎么闹 45 00:01:59,250 --> 00:02:01,150 价格就上不去 46 00:02:01,150 --> 00:02:05,370 也回不到110美元的风险位置的上方 47 00:02:05,370 --> 00:02:06,739 这是为什么呢 48 00:02:06,739 --> 00:02:10,340 因为啊霍尔木兹海峡名义上关闭 49 00:02:10,340 --> 00:02:12,300 但是在过去一段时间 50 00:02:12,300 --> 00:02:14,780 实际上正在敞开 51 00:02:14,780 --> 00:02:17,939 越来越多的邮轮正在关闭应答器 52 00:02:17,939 --> 00:02:20,870 以提升霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量 53 00:02:20,870 --> 00:02:25,129 虽然传统我们之前看的那个船舶追踪的那个系统啊 54 00:02:25,129 --> 00:02:27,300 显示运输量不大 55 00:02:27,300 --> 00:02:29,460 但是呢航运业的高管 56 00:02:29,460 --> 00:02:30,800 亚洲石油买家 57 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,099 还有卫星图却出现了截然不同的景象 58 00:02:35,099 --> 00:02:38,569 通过霍尔木兹海峡的这个船只是越来越多 59 00:02:38,569 --> 00:02:43,729 霍尔木兹海峡的这个封闭程度已经是大大的降低 60 00:02:43,729 --> 00:02:46,009 石油运输现在也变得更加的稳定 61 00:02:46,009 --> 00:02:47,699 运输量也更大 62 00:02:47,699 --> 00:02:50,379 石油呢正在以某种方式啊 63 00:02:50,379 --> 00:02:53,840 不管你是说是公开的也好还是隐蔽的也好啊 64 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,430 他们正在通过霍尔木兹海峡 65 00:02:56,430 --> 00:03:00,490 这个就是咱们之前节目里曾经讲过的霍尔木兹海峡 66 00:03:00,490 --> 00:03:02,030 伊朗和美国 67 00:03:02,030 --> 00:03:03,689 你不说我不说 68 00:03:03,689 --> 00:03:05,069 当开放处理啊 69 00:03:05,069 --> 00:03:06,659 邮轮你过就完了 70 00:03:06,659 --> 00:03:09,020 所以呢我们在看这件事情的时候 71 00:03:09,020 --> 00:03:10,639 现在只看油价 72 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,000 不用看战场啊 73 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,259 看油价的价格走势 74 00:03:14,259 --> 00:03:16,479 你要是回到了110块钱上方 75 00:03:16,479 --> 00:03:17,879 那是真有问题 76 00:03:17,879 --> 00:03:19,740 如果你掉到了90下方 77 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:22,240 像现在这样维持在90几块钱 78 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,789 那代表呢现在的运量维持稳定好 79 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:30,270 另一方面还有一个呢是原油价格往上走不了的 80 00:03:30,270 --> 00:03:34,530 原因是目前呀有大量的原油紧急储备的释放 81 00:03:34,530 --> 00:03:36,969 加上还有大家一个没有想到的东西 82 00:03:36,969 --> 00:03:43,379 就是很多国家呢开始在使用煤炭在补充能源市场的缺口 83 00:03:43,379 --> 00:03:48,460 ICE煤炭期货的价格在过去一个月涨了接近15%啊 84 00:03:48,460 --> 00:03:51,539 所以呢这些都抑制了原油价格的上涨 85 00:03:51,740 --> 00:03:57,060 好那么今天呢还有一个重要的CPI的数据和大家过一下 86 00:03:59,099 --> 00:04:02,659 美国的这份CPI报告呢是基本符合预期啊 87 00:04:02,659 --> 00:04:06,240 呃但是呢核心的月度环比是低于预期 88 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,400 另一方面核心服务和超级核心的通胀呢是增速加快啊 89 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,430 所以呢是好坏各半 90 00:04:13,430 --> 00:04:18,029 总体上呢这一次的月度环比的CPI上涨0.5% 91 00:04:18,029 --> 00:04:18,889 符合预期 92 00:04:18,889 --> 00:04:21,908 较前一个月的0.6有所回落 93 00:04:21,908 --> 00:04:26,928 但是同比涨幅是从3.8%升到了4.2% 94 00:04:26,928 --> 00:04:28,769 这个是和预期相符的 95 00:04:28,769 --> 00:04:32,470 核心CPI呢是月环比上涨0.2% 96 00:04:32,470 --> 00:04:34,170 低于预期的0.3% 97 00:04:34,170 --> 00:04:36,879 和前值的0.4低于预期 98 00:04:36,879 --> 00:04:41,158 那么同比涨幅呢是从2.8涨到了2.9 99 00:04:41,158 --> 00:04:45,189 这个呢是远高于美联储2%的目标 100 00:04:45,189 --> 00:04:48,949 再加上呢之前的劳动力市场继续保持韧性啊 101 00:04:48,949 --> 00:04:50,589 没有看到太多的失业 102 00:04:50,589 --> 00:04:57,550 所以不太可能从根本上改变近期美联储政策预期趋于鹰派的这个趋势 103 00:04:57,550 --> 00:05:00,810 今天的市场压住26年的降息预期啊 104 00:05:00,810 --> 00:05:03,600 加息预期呢是有一点点的下降 105 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,649 但是仍旧保持大概率在今年会加息25个基点 106 00:05:08,649 --> 00:05:12,069 这个呢就是今天的经济数据和中东消息 107 00:05:12,069 --> 00:05:15,610 接下来我们直接讲解个股 108 00:05:17,180 --> 00:05:21,379 今天要讲的这个个股呢是把甲骨文还是要给大家说一下啊 109 00:05:21,379 --> 00:05:24,160 甲骨文今天走出了最糟糕的情况 110 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,399 昨天给大家讲过它的上下波动范围 111 00:05:26,399 --> 00:05:28,959 今天直接一口气走到了180 112 00:05:28,959 --> 00:05:31,319 财报到底出了什么样的问题呢 113 00:05:31,319 --> 00:05:33,399 我们看一下嗯 114 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,779 甲骨文其实本季财报出的还是非常好的啊 115 00:05:38,779 --> 00:05:41,730 就是调整后的每股收益是2.11 116 00:05:41,730 --> 00:05:43,670 高于去年同期的一块七 117 00:05:43,670 --> 00:05:46,740 也高于之前预期的1.97 118 00:05:46,740 --> 00:05:49,620 经过调整后的营收是191.8亿 119 00:05:49,620 --> 00:05:51,319 同比增长21% 120 00:05:51,319 --> 00:05:54,389 超过之前预期的190.9亿 121 00:05:54,389 --> 00:06:01,139 那么他的剩余的未履约义务的积压订单从去年同期的1380亿 122 00:06:01,139 --> 00:06:03,360 增加到了6380亿啊 123 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:04,788 非常的大 124 00:06:04,788 --> 00:06:07,588 这个积压订单的额度非常的夸张啊 125 00:06:07,588 --> 00:06:11,329 大家知道很多银行的存款都没有这么多的呃 126 00:06:11,329 --> 00:06:16,790 美国的不算那几个最大型的银行或万亿存款的银行啊 127 00:06:16,790 --> 00:06:22,230 呃区域性银行200多家区域银行的平均的存款只有600亿左右啊 128 00:06:22,230 --> 00:06:27,769 所以甲骨文的这个剩余的未履约订单够开十家银行了啊 129 00:06:27,769 --> 00:06:28,769 好额 130 00:06:28,769 --> 00:06:31,649 那么这个是他目前这个财报的情况 131 00:06:31,649 --> 00:06:32,670 看上去不错对吧 132 00:06:32,670 --> 00:06:34,689 那么前瞻怎么样 133 00:06:35,670 --> 00:06:37,629 展望2027财年全年 134 00:06:37,629 --> 00:06:43,309 公司重新额重申了900亿美元的总收入预期呃 135 00:06:43,309 --> 00:06:47,028 把这个非JAP的每股收益上调至了8.05 136 00:06:47,028 --> 00:06:49,250 那么同比增长18% 137 00:06:49,250 --> 00:06:51,029 维持前瞻哈 138 00:06:51,029 --> 00:06:52,129 这个是维持啊 139 00:06:52,129 --> 00:06:53,430 就是收入维持 140 00:06:53,430 --> 00:06:59,379 然后额非呃这个呃这个EPS呢非JAP的EPS是上调了一点 141 00:06:59,379 --> 00:07:04,720 提醒一下博通上个周末不是没有去调整全年预期吗 142 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:05,579 股价下跌 143 00:07:05,579 --> 00:07:08,779 甲骨文也没有调整业绩预期啊 144 00:07:08,779 --> 00:07:15,620 两家和数据中心相关和半导体相关的公司维持了前瞻 145 00:07:15,939 --> 00:07:16,379 好 146 00:07:16,379 --> 00:07:19,019 我们再看一下其他的关键信息 147 00:07:20,319 --> 00:07:23,879 2026财年的自由现金流呢是-237啊 148 00:07:23,879 --> 00:07:25,439 指的是刚刚过去的这个财年 149 00:07:25,439 --> 00:07:27,490 现在不是第四季度结束吗 150 00:07:27,490 --> 00:07:31,209 那么公司的自由现金流的崩溃速度正在加速 151 00:07:31,209 --> 00:07:35,699 但是呢甲骨文想要为他庞大的扩张计划提供资金 152 00:07:35,699 --> 00:07:38,060 因为他的收入和利润现在是不够的啊 153 00:07:38,060 --> 00:07:39,899 所以唯一的办法是干嘛呢 154 00:07:39,899 --> 00:07:42,408 就是增加股权或者债务 155 00:07:42,408 --> 00:07:48,189 那么公司预计在2027财年通过债务和股权融资相结合的方式 156 00:07:48,189 --> 00:07:50,000 预计筹集400亿 157 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,079 其中包括之前已经宣布的200亿 158 00:07:52,079 --> 00:07:54,240 相当于额外又增加了200亿 159 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:59,009 那么甲骨文呢预计在2026年的日历年不会发行额外债务 160 00:07:59,009 --> 00:08:00,050 但是他之前啊 161 00:08:00,050 --> 00:08:03,370 我们知道他已经进行了430亿的债务融资 162 00:08:03,370 --> 00:08:05,529 和50亿美元的股权融资 163 00:08:05,529 --> 00:08:07,930 它的价格为什么之前走的那么差 164 00:08:07,930 --> 00:08:09,750 在过去的接近一年时间里边 165 00:08:09,750 --> 00:08:12,850 就是因为债务水平太高了 166 00:08:12,850 --> 00:08:14,310 现金已经崩溃 167 00:08:14,310 --> 00:08:17,550 那么只能通过债务融资和股权融资的方式 168 00:08:17,550 --> 00:08:22,199 所以他把保啊全部都压到了OpenAI身上 169 00:08:22,199 --> 00:08:25,079 也就是OpenAI必须甲方要付账 170 00:08:25,079 --> 00:08:25,839 那不付账 171 00:08:25,839 --> 00:08:27,740 那甲骨文真的是完蛋啊 172 00:08:27,740 --> 00:08:31,300 所以呢现在的情况能看出来甲骨文怎么想的嘞 173 00:08:31,300 --> 00:08:33,720 就是虱子多了不怕咬对吧 174 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:34,299 债多了 175 00:08:34,299 --> 00:08:35,159 借债人不愁 176 00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:36,200 债主愁 177 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,200 所以甲骨文是继续举债搞建设 178 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:40,720 没有别的退路 179 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,200 反正他成不成功吧 180 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,710 最终取决于OpenAI能不能成功 181 00:08:44,710 --> 00:08:50,500 好消息是OpenAI呢预计呢会也成功的去IPO融资上市 182 00:08:50,500 --> 00:08:52,539 坏消息是呢今天看到AAPI呃 183 00:08:52,539 --> 00:08:54,919 OpenAI的最新的消息是呃 184 00:08:54,919 --> 00:08:56,909 上市的时间不一定那么早 185 00:08:56,909 --> 00:08:59,789 预计数都在说是在一年之内啊 186 00:08:59,789 --> 00:09:00,990 那有可能会推迟啊 187 00:09:00,990 --> 00:09:05,870 所以目前的情况甲骨文还得接着扛啊 188 00:09:06,860 --> 00:09:09,799 好那么说一下甲骨文的技术面吧 189 00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:11,379 啊基本面就不用多说了 190 00:09:11,379 --> 00:09:13,379 目前的情况基本上没有变化 191 00:09:13,379 --> 00:09:14,940 额基本技术面的情况呢 192 00:09:14,940 --> 00:09:17,700 今天又跌回到了181线啊 193 00:09:17,700 --> 00:09:22,089 就是下方这个位置上方好不容易过去的超强的这个压力 194 00:09:22,089 --> 00:09:23,729 现在又跌回来了啊 195 00:09:23,729 --> 00:09:26,519 跌回来呢就意味着又要跑到这个区域去震荡 196 00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:27,919 如果跌破175 197 00:09:27,919 --> 00:09:30,379 下一个强支撑是在159的下方 198 00:09:30,379 --> 00:09:31,340 请大家注意啊 199 00:09:31,340 --> 00:09:32,440 请大家注意 200 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,440 所以现在看一看它还能不能够绝地以逢生吧 201 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:37,740 这种情况嗯 202 00:09:37,740 --> 00:09:38,720 毕竟涨了这么多 203 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,960 这一轮上去好不容易上去的对吧 204 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:42,399 嗯如果再过不去 205 00:09:42,399 --> 00:09:44,129 没办法继续慢慢震荡吧 206 00:09:44,129 --> 00:09:48,389 呃基基本面上的前景上就只能一个季度一个季度的看他的收入了 207 00:09:48,389 --> 00:09:50,919 再加上年度前瞻又没有上调 208 00:09:50,919 --> 00:09:54,429 所以可看的看点就不多了啊 209 00:09:54,585 --> 00:09:58,000 好这个是甲骨文好 210 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,919 接下来我想重点讲一下费城半导体 211 00:10:01,919 --> 00:10:05,720 就是主要讲SOOXX 212 00:10:09,340 --> 00:10:12,139 今天呢为什么我说啊他有点异常啊 213 00:10:12,139 --> 00:10:15,279 大家看一下他收盘是不是收到了趋势线的下方 214 00:10:15,279 --> 00:10:16,179 没问题对吧 215 00:10:16,179 --> 00:10:20,080 但是今天的盘中出了一些问题啊 216 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,879 这是今天的盘中的分时图 217 00:10:23,159 --> 00:10:26,960 今天的实际上啊我们看到在跌破趋势线之后 218 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,480 这一轮是高点回撤和大盘同步 219 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,419 那么在跌破了553附近的趋势线之后 220 00:10:32,419 --> 00:10:34,129 大家看这一波下跌 221 00:10:34,129 --> 00:10:37,710 其实跌速只跌了一小会儿啊 222 00:10:37,710 --> 00:10:40,549 其实中间的时间大概一共也就10分钟 223 00:10:40,549 --> 00:10:43,610 跌下来之后很快就反弹 224 00:10:43,610 --> 00:10:45,929 然后买盘很明显 225 00:10:45,929 --> 00:10:48,669 这个里边非常的多很硬啊 226 00:10:48,669 --> 00:10:53,519 就是很多孩子自还有资金想着把它顶回去啊 227 00:10:53,519 --> 00:10:54,599 我们说收盘价为准嘛 228 00:10:54,599 --> 00:10:55,399 不把顶回去 229 00:10:55,399 --> 00:10:56,078 他想啊 230 00:10:56,078 --> 00:11:01,190 所以他不是一个单边的急速的快速的下跌啊 231 00:11:01,190 --> 00:11:04,230 这是第一次在553这个位置啊 232 00:11:04,230 --> 00:11:07,889 不是一个明显的抛压加速 233 00:11:07,889 --> 00:11:12,759 一边倒的在抛买盘力量甚至是超过了卖盘 234 00:11:12,759 --> 00:11:14,879 他今天因为他不是跳空下来的 235 00:11:14,879 --> 00:11:16,610 如果是一个跳空下来 236 00:11:16,610 --> 00:11:18,509 跳到了趋势线下方开盘 237 00:11:18,509 --> 00:11:19,529 那又完全不同 238 00:11:19,529 --> 00:11:20,850 今天是滑下来的啊 239 00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:22,409 慢慢从这滑下来的 240 00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:26,190 所以呢这种情况他破位时的抛压 241 00:11:26,190 --> 00:11:29,570 我发现他没有预期中严重啊 242 00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:30,799 这是第一个位置 243 00:11:30,799 --> 00:11:33,200 第二个位置是反弹 244 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,720 又接近553 245 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,210 就是在550附近的时候 246 00:11:37,210 --> 00:11:39,690 那么这个地方确实反弹上去以后 247 00:11:39,690 --> 00:11:41,409 直接是被一轮卖下来 248 00:11:41,409 --> 00:11:44,299 但是尾盘没有升跌 249 00:11:44,299 --> 00:11:46,539 也没有跑的太远远啊 250 00:11:46,539 --> 00:11:49,850 这是第二轮的动能的释放好 251 00:11:49,850 --> 00:11:53,470 那这里边呢就有一点点的问题了啊 252 00:11:53,470 --> 00:11:55,710 我们看一下日线的成交量 253 00:11:56,179 --> 00:11:58,340 这个日线的成交量啊 254 00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:04,350 大家发现第一我们说成交量虽然和之前的平均成交量相比是有所放大 255 00:12:04,350 --> 00:12:07,110 但是和昨天在没有破位之前啊 256 00:12:07,110 --> 00:12:08,769 有一个上下拉扯来比 257 00:12:08,769 --> 00:12:09,769 首推的上下拉扯 258 00:12:09,769 --> 00:12:11,730 有一部分是跌破了趋势线之后对吧 259 00:12:11,730 --> 00:12:13,429 被买盘买起来很强 260 00:12:13,429 --> 00:12:16,190 那么今天呢按照道理来讲啊 261 00:12:16,190 --> 00:12:17,710 我们按照一般经验判断 262 00:12:17,710 --> 00:12:19,149 在破位的行情中 263 00:12:19,149 --> 00:12:21,519 通常成交量会急速放大 264 00:12:21,519 --> 00:12:24,159 那么他这种情况和昨天相比 265 00:12:24,159 --> 00:12:26,039 其实没有放大太多啊 266 00:12:26,039 --> 00:12:26,960 没有放大 267 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,500 甚至在和昨天相比是缩小 268 00:12:28,500 --> 00:12:31,039 只是比平均成交量稍高一些 269 00:12:31,039 --> 00:12:33,360 这个是第一个soo xx啊 270 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,730 本身成交量今天在缩 271 00:12:35,730 --> 00:12:37,769 相对破位和不破位的时候 272 00:12:37,769 --> 00:12:38,549 它在缩量 273 00:12:38,549 --> 00:12:39,570 这是一个异常 274 00:12:39,570 --> 00:12:42,059 我们一般在技术面经验里边 275 00:12:42,059 --> 00:12:46,179 我们通常啊把缩量下跌这件事情看成是什么 276 00:12:46,179 --> 00:12:48,809 看成是一个变数 277 00:12:48,809 --> 00:12:52,009 就是它不是一个正常的顺势而为 278 00:12:52,009 --> 00:12:56,450 它出现了相当于我们叫量价的某种程度上的背离啊 279 00:12:56,450 --> 00:12:58,580 这是一个经验上的一个异常哈 280 00:12:58,580 --> 00:13:02,269 好你再看一下费城半导体的指数 281 00:13:02,269 --> 00:13:03,190 其实一样啊 282 00:13:03,190 --> 00:13:04,169 和昨天相比对吧 283 00:13:04,169 --> 00:13:07,009 我们看一下SMH它缩的更厉害 284 00:13:07,009 --> 00:13:09,090 大家发现没有缩的更厉害 285 00:13:09,090 --> 00:13:15,330 诶这个地方呢就是有那么一点点的属于经验层面的一些异常哈 286 00:13:15,330 --> 00:13:18,289 再加上呢今天由于偏离这个下行呃 287 00:13:18,289 --> 00:13:20,490 上行趋势线呢不太的远 288 00:13:20,490 --> 00:13:25,450 所以啊我这里呢希望大家最好你是多看一天 289 00:13:25,450 --> 00:13:26,909 要看什么东西呢 290 00:13:26,909 --> 00:13:27,789 你要看啊 291 00:13:27,789 --> 00:13:31,539 就是在明天如果出现反弹的时候 292 00:13:31,539 --> 00:13:36,320 当价格反弹到553~554这个地方的时候 293 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,139 是不是明显承压 294 00:13:38,139 --> 00:13:40,460 多次试探过不去 295 00:13:40,460 --> 00:13:43,500 还是说这个地方跟纸糊的一样 296 00:13:43,500 --> 00:13:44,879 直接突破往上跳 297 00:13:44,879 --> 00:13:46,399 直接又站上了趋势线 298 00:13:46,399 --> 00:13:48,019 回到了554的上方 299 00:13:48,019 --> 00:13:49,299 到555 300 00:13:49,299 --> 00:13:50,299 那说明什么 301 00:13:50,299 --> 00:13:52,860 说明这个多头的力量非常的强 302 00:13:52,860 --> 00:13:54,629 很有可能是一个假跌破 303 00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:56,750 他说明后面可能还有的救啊 304 00:13:56,750 --> 00:13:57,230 就是费办 305 00:13:57,230 --> 00:13:58,669 这边可能还有的救 306 00:13:58,669 --> 00:14:00,830 所以呢这是一个经验性的判断哈 307 00:14:00,830 --> 00:14:02,710 经验性的判断好 308 00:14:02,710 --> 00:14:06,549 那么后面如果确实没得救怎么办 309 00:14:07,409 --> 00:14:08,570 如果我们看到今天 310 00:14:08,570 --> 00:14:10,049 比方说到了明天开盘 311 00:14:10,049 --> 00:14:10,610 不管怎么走 312 00:14:10,610 --> 00:14:11,289 收盘之后呢 313 00:14:11,289 --> 00:14:13,090 发现又创了一个新低出来对吧 314 00:14:13,090 --> 00:14:13,730 那没得救嘛 315 00:14:13,730 --> 00:14:15,009 那偏离的越来越远 316 00:14:15,009 --> 00:14:16,644 是不太可能再拉上去了啊 317 00:14:16,730 --> 00:14:21,600 那这种情况呢我们下方也不要看的太空 318 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:22,679 不要看太空 319 00:14:22,679 --> 00:14:24,279 我今天把几个位置给大家画出来 320 00:14:24,279 --> 00:14:25,779 也标的很清楚 321 00:14:25,779 --> 00:14:27,620 为什么不要看得太空 322 00:14:27,620 --> 00:14:33,230 主要的问题是我们讲半导体涨得快是由于斜率高 323 00:14:33,230 --> 00:14:34,769 炒得太快 324 00:14:34,769 --> 00:14:37,409 是部分的股票有高估 325 00:14:37,409 --> 00:14:41,090 不是费城半导体全体的股票都高估了 326 00:14:41,090 --> 00:14:42,750 而不是全面高估 327 00:14:42,750 --> 00:14:46,629 请大家一定要注意费城半导体基本面的 328 00:14:46,629 --> 00:14:49,440 它本身就是很强的呃 329 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:55,339 半导体呢从整个的业绩层面仍旧是标普的绝对的大腿 330 00:14:55,339 --> 00:14:57,119 基本面不要忽略了啊 331 00:14:57,119 --> 00:14:59,278 不要忽略了他这种短期长得快 332 00:14:59,278 --> 00:15:01,139 适度的回撤是正常的 333 00:15:01,139 --> 00:15:01,970 健康的 334 00:15:01,970 --> 00:15:03,250 他有一个筹码交换 335 00:15:03,250 --> 00:15:05,429 但是呢你不能说他一口气 336 00:15:05,429 --> 00:15:06,250 你从高点 337 00:15:06,250 --> 00:15:08,169 然后一看看到很空很空啊 338 00:15:08,169 --> 00:15:08,690 那不行啊 339 00:15:08,690 --> 00:15:09,490 你不能那么看 340 00:15:09,490 --> 00:15:11,379 你就完全抛开基本面了 341 00:15:11,379 --> 00:15:12,740 那是一个错误的看法 342 00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:14,559 我认为那个是不对的好 343 00:15:14,559 --> 00:15:17,539 那么什么情况下在哪个地方 344 00:15:17,539 --> 00:15:18,980 假如他走的更坏了 345 00:15:18,980 --> 00:15:20,460 那么是止跌的位置 346 00:15:20,460 --> 00:15:24,960 我们潜在要看的呢上方的这两根线直接看点 347 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,940 第一根线大概是在500附近啊 348 00:15:27,940 --> 00:15:29,159 就是489532 349 00:15:29,159 --> 00:15:31,240 我们取中间大概在五百五百一附近 350 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:36,089 这个地方从市价往下的潜在的跌幅大概是6%左右啊 351 00:15:36,089 --> 00:15:37,109 不多对不对 352 00:15:37,109 --> 00:15:38,528 只有6%左右 353 00:15:38,528 --> 00:15:43,980 那么第二个潜在的止跌看点是450~467 354 00:15:43,980 --> 00:15:47,169 它的潜在跌幅是15%左右 355 00:15:47,169 --> 00:15:49,649 那么如果这两个跌幅能实现啊 356 00:15:49,649 --> 00:15:51,169 打个比方能跌到15%左右 357 00:15:51,169 --> 00:15:53,669 其实这个半导体的回撤幅度就不错了 358 00:15:53,669 --> 00:15:54,990 就已经很不错了 359 00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:56,669 尽管只是中等支撑 360 00:15:56,669 --> 00:16:00,240 那么这种回撤幅度技术面得到一定程度的修复 361 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,279 加上基本面比较的强势 362 00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:04,919 我相信还是有资金会介入的啊 363 00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:06,179 会去介入半导体 364 00:16:06,179 --> 00:16:08,429 继续不会让它跌的太多 365 00:16:08,909 --> 00:16:14,669 我们最差的情况463~443这个地方 366 00:16:14,669 --> 00:16:17,190 我觉得你真的要去把这个位置跌破 367 00:16:17,190 --> 00:16:18,529 缺乏一些理由 368 00:16:18,529 --> 00:16:19,450 这个地方要跌多少呢 369 00:16:19,450 --> 00:16:20,539 跌20%几 370 00:16:20,539 --> 00:16:22,940 相当于费城半导体直接进入熊市 371 00:16:22,940 --> 00:16:24,220 那我请问大家一下 372 00:16:24,220 --> 00:16:26,940 半导体的基本面支不支持进入熊市 373 00:16:26,940 --> 00:16:28,429 不支持对吧 374 00:16:28,429 --> 00:16:30,710 那么半导体如果都进入熊市了 375 00:16:30,710 --> 00:16:33,538 那大盘就没有牛市的必要性了嘛对吧 376 00:16:33,538 --> 00:16:35,339 因为半大盘就靠半导体 377 00:16:35,339 --> 00:16:36,578 半导体又是业绩最强 378 00:16:36,578 --> 00:16:37,460 业绩最好的 379 00:16:37,460 --> 00:16:41,559 而且整个的标普业绩在Q1财报之后是出现了上调的 380 00:16:41,559 --> 00:16:44,059 上调的最大的部分就来自于半导体 381 00:16:44,059 --> 00:16:47,690 所以半导体的基本面的熊市在现在啊 382 00:16:47,690 --> 00:16:49,929 至少在2026年的6月份 383 00:16:49,929 --> 00:16:51,370 这个看不到 384 00:16:51,370 --> 00:16:52,409 目前看不到 385 00:16:52,409 --> 00:16:54,889 但是你要说进入到2026年的年底 386 00:16:54,889 --> 00:16:56,328 到2027年年初 387 00:16:56,328 --> 00:16:58,568 这个AI验证货币化如果失败了 388 00:16:58,568 --> 00:17:00,328 有没有可能有可能啊 389 00:17:00,328 --> 00:17:01,989 我只能说那个时候有可能好吧 390 00:17:01,989 --> 00:17:03,769 但那个时候我们要看跟着业绩来 391 00:17:03,769 --> 00:17:05,200 现在没可能好吧 392 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:06,799 现在在2026年6月份的时候 393 00:17:06,799 --> 00:17:09,839 绝无可能半导体基本面出现熊市的理由 394 00:17:09,839 --> 00:17:11,069 没有可能好 395 00:17:11,069 --> 00:17:13,309 这个呢就是半导体目前的几个情况 396 00:17:13,309 --> 00:17:15,349 那真的如果说他真的进入熊市了 397 00:17:15,349 --> 00:17:16,630 这个地方跌破了怎么办 398 00:17:16,630 --> 00:17:17,829 也给大家写好了啊 399 00:17:17,829 --> 00:17:19,730 436跌破之后 400 00:17:19,730 --> 00:17:22,670 一口气下看70块钱下 401 00:17:22,670 --> 00:17:25,529 看到368几下方啊 402 00:17:25,529 --> 00:17:26,529 那个是真熊市啊 403 00:17:26,529 --> 00:17:27,269 那个就股灾 404 00:17:27,269 --> 00:17:28,309 那个不叫熊市了 405 00:17:28,309 --> 00:17:31,250 因为跌到这里基本上就已经呃熊市了 406 00:17:31,250 --> 00:17:32,109 再跌破位 407 00:17:32,109 --> 00:17:34,990 那你下方还得跌这个30% 408 00:17:34,990 --> 00:17:38,329 那你就基本上那不是那不是股灾是什么嘛对吧 409 00:17:38,329 --> 00:17:40,769 所以几个看点大家注意啊 410 00:17:40,769 --> 00:17:41,569 自行把握一下啊 411 00:17:41,569 --> 00:17:43,009 因为我知道很多朋友想做半导体 412 00:17:43,009 --> 00:17:44,369 又觉得高了怎么办 413 00:17:44,369 --> 00:17:46,829 上面两个地方关注关注好吧 414 00:17:46,829 --> 00:17:48,250 不要看跌的太深 415 00:17:48,250 --> 00:17:52,180 尽管我们说就算破位也不要看太空太空 416 00:17:52,180 --> 00:17:53,700 尽管太空股很火啊 417 00:17:53,700 --> 00:17:56,250 但我们看半导体不能看太空啊 418 00:17:56,529 --> 00:18:00,970 好然后我把s spy和QQQ也给大家给一下位置啊 419 00:18:00,970 --> 00:18:01,769 以防万一嘛 420 00:18:01,769 --> 00:18:03,130 万一大家这个到了位置 421 00:18:03,130 --> 00:18:04,190 现在速度又快 422 00:18:04,190 --> 00:18:05,210 一天两天走到了 423 00:18:05,210 --> 00:18:05,750 怎么办呢 424 00:18:05,750 --> 00:18:06,309 对不对 425 00:18:06,309 --> 00:18:08,690 还是提前给大家画一下 426 00:18:10,259 --> 00:18:11,539 我给大家标出来了啊 427 00:18:13,220 --> 00:18:16,750 标普676~695 428 00:18:16,750 --> 00:18:19,990 653~672都是很好的地方 429 00:18:19,990 --> 00:18:20,490 好吧 430 00:18:20,490 --> 00:18:22,609 都是长线很好的地方 431 00:18:22,609 --> 00:18:24,730 就是做指数的朋友啊 432 00:18:24,730 --> 00:18:27,049 这里是我单纯的对对指数的朋友讲的啊 433 00:18:27,049 --> 00:18:29,039 指数的朋友有很多朋友不是高位卖了吗 434 00:18:29,039 --> 00:18:30,680 想做这个超额收益吗 435 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,039 知道什么时候想买回来 436 00:18:32,039 --> 00:18:34,359 或者说仓位不够的高位不敢追 437 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,059 但是呢想回撤过程中 438 00:18:36,059 --> 00:18:37,119 这个在里边 439 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,128 这个呃这个多一点对吧 440 00:18:40,128 --> 00:18:41,608 那就是这些地方啊 441 00:18:41,608 --> 00:18:42,689 标普是这两个地方啊 442 00:18:42,689 --> 00:18:45,930 大家先记好好QQ 443 00:18:46,769 --> 00:18:49,210 QQ呢激进一点的 444 00:18:49,210 --> 00:18:51,630 你就在645~665激进一点啊 445 00:18:51,630 --> 00:18:52,710 我没我没有写激进 446 00:18:52,710 --> 00:18:54,220 我只写了稳妥的地方 447 00:18:54,220 --> 00:18:56,019 激进一点就是645~665 448 00:18:56,019 --> 00:18:57,619 你要稳妥的好的地方 449 00:18:57,619 --> 00:19:01,868 617637和588~613好吧 450 00:19:01,868 --> 00:19:03,509 有机会呢就别错过了好吧 451 00:19:03,509 --> 00:19:04,868 你这么去理解就可以了啊 452 00:19:04,868 --> 00:19:05,989 那不给你机会呢 453 00:19:05,989 --> 00:19:07,388 非要在上方很高位就挺着 454 00:19:07,388 --> 00:19:08,028 怎么办呢 455 00:19:08,028 --> 00:19:09,088 那后面再说呗 456 00:19:09,088 --> 00:19:12,750 那我们说标普平均每一年我们讲过很多次啊 457 00:19:12,750 --> 00:19:18,349 几乎每一年我们都讲标普平均每一年有一次10%及以上的回撤 458 00:19:18,349 --> 00:19:19,930 平均每年都有一次 459 00:19:19,930 --> 00:19:21,619 它不是一个罕见的 460 00:19:21,619 --> 00:19:26,440 平均每年回撤5%及以上的次数是3~4次 461 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:27,809 一年时间里边 462 00:19:27,809 --> 00:19:29,809 所以相当于一个季度会出现一次啊 463 00:19:29,809 --> 00:19:31,670 所以这不是什么很罕见的事情 464 00:19:31,670 --> 00:19:38,380 那么呃纳指的贝塔差不多是在标普的1.2到1.5左右徘徊 465 00:19:38,380 --> 00:19:39,759 所以呢你可以算一下 466 00:19:39,759 --> 00:19:41,579 那标普跌10% 467 00:19:41,579 --> 00:19:42,660 那只跌15%呗 468 00:19:42,660 --> 00:19:43,940 大概就是这么个状况啊 469 00:19:43,940 --> 00:19:47,380 所以这就是一般的对于大盘的一个判断 470 00:19:47,380 --> 00:19:50,180 结合着技术面的一些看法 471 00:19:50,589 --> 00:19:51,029 好 472 00:19:51,029 --> 00:19:52,589 这个呢就是我们今天啊带给大家的 473 00:19:52,589 --> 00:19:56,980 关于这个市场的一些主要内容的更新啊 474 00:19:56,980 --> 00:20:02,859 呃然后呢还有一个呢就是呃世界杯呀会明天开幕对吧 475 00:20:02,859 --> 00:20:05,880 然后呢还有就是博彩呃 476 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,000 这个博彩市场一般来讲啊 477 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:13,430 通常都会和美股在这种世界杯期间呢会抢夺部分的流动性啊 478 00:20:13,430 --> 00:20:14,619 会抢一些 479 00:20:14,619 --> 00:20:16,299 那么能抢多少呢 480 00:20:16,299 --> 00:20:21,440 取决于谁这个市场波动更大更刺激 481 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,619 嘿嘿取决于这个东西啊 482 00:20:23,619 --> 00:20:25,559 哪边更吸引人的眼球 483 00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:26,420 打个比方 484 00:20:26,420 --> 00:20:30,829 如果世界杯那边那那个赛事冷门迭出对吧 485 00:20:30,829 --> 00:20:33,589 非常多的这种极大的爆冷出现 486 00:20:33,589 --> 00:20:36,349 极大的和一些小概率的赔率事件出现 487 00:20:36,349 --> 00:20:38,839 很有可能就会吸引资金就往那边跑一些 488 00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:42,680 那么如果股市这边出现一些极端的大波动啊 489 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:43,799 世界杯那边很平淡 490 00:20:43,799 --> 00:20:45,920 那大家呢都往股市多投机一点 491 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,289 因为现在很多投机美股的方式已经是跨市场了 492 00:20:49,289 --> 00:20:51,109 很多的跨市场跨链的 493 00:20:51,109 --> 00:20:52,690 包括链上的资产都在做 494 00:20:52,690 --> 00:20:56,650 甚至像你知道大家像呃SPACEX 495 00:20:56,650 --> 00:20:59,190 虽然现在我们知道它还没上市呢 496 00:20:59,190 --> 00:21:02,390 但是暂时在链上连永续期货都有了对吧 497 00:21:02,390 --> 00:21:06,069 那这个东西投机的市场里边一直都存在的啊 498 00:21:06,069 --> 00:21:09,119 所以这种东西就是看哪边波动大啊 499 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,519 好额别的呢就不多说了啊 500 00:21:11,519 --> 00:21:13,960 喜欢球的朋友呢也可以关注一下啊 501 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,200 因为我说一下高盛的模型预计啊 502 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,670 对于世界杯的这个夺冠的情况 503 00:21:18,670 --> 00:21:21,710 目前呢按照概率模型概率来算的 504 00:21:21,710 --> 00:21:22,920 西班牙26% 505 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,259 然后法国19% 506 00:21:24,259 --> 00:21:25,359 阿根廷14% 507 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,339 巴西8% 508 00:21:26,339 --> 00:21:28,720 英格兰是5%好吧 509 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,619 所以呢这是喜欢看球的朋友也可以关注关注好 510 00:21:32,619 --> 00:21:35,099 那这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊 511 00:21:35,099 --> 00:21:37,380 这两天估计会非常的混乱 512 00:21:37,380 --> 00:21:38,660 一直会持续到周五 513 00:21:38,660 --> 00:21:39,579 那咱们慢慢看吧 514 00:21:39,579 --> 00:21:40,779 还有个周四呢吧对吧 515 00:21:40,779 --> 00:21:42,079 明天看看情况怎么样 516 00:21:42,079 --> 00:21:44,690 会不会又拉到一个中性平盘的位置 517 00:21:44,690 --> 00:21:48,640 然后等着周五发生大事件好 518 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:49,799 那我们今天节目到这啊 519 00:21:49,799 --> 00:21:51,880 如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助 520 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,819 还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞啊 521 00:21:54,819 --> 00:21:56,559 点赞今天录了两遍 522 00:21:56,559 --> 00:21:58,400 这个多多帮忙点赞 523 00:21:58,400 --> 00:21:59,099 感谢大家 524 00:21:59,099 --> 00:22:00,559 嗓子都快冒烟了 525 00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:02,839 好那我们今天节目就到这儿啊 526 00:22:02,839 --> 00:22:06,400 咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散
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