BV1VjEe6NEGG · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:13,720 大家好 2 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:14,839 欢迎回到娜娜说美股 3 00:00:14,839 --> 00:00:16,640 今天是6月10号周三 4 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:21,140 美股市场全天都在同时消化两件大事 5 00:00:21,140 --> 00:00:23,379 一个是美国CPI数据 6 00:00:23,379 --> 00:00:26,960 另外一件呢是持续升级的中东局势 7 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:28,859 而最终结果大家也看到了哈 8 00:00:28,859 --> 00:00:32,488 虽然通胀数据并没有想象中的那么糟糕 9 00:00:32,488 --> 00:00:36,808 但是地缘政治风险呢彻底压过了宏观数据 10 00:00:36,808 --> 00:00:37,488 利好美股 11 00:00:37,488 --> 00:00:39,780 三大指数盘中反弹失败 12 00:00:39,780 --> 00:00:41,500 随后又一路走低 13 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:46,819 半导体汽车制造以及工业板块成为今天抛售最严重的区域 14 00:00:46,819 --> 00:00:50,098 恐慌指数VIX今天飙升了11.8% 15 00:00:50,098 --> 00:00:51,338 波动性扩大 16 00:00:51,338 --> 00:00:53,109 市场信心下降 17 00:00:53,109 --> 00:00:55,509 价格走势变得异常不稳定 18 00:00:55,509 --> 00:00:58,920 资金呢正在快速进入防御状态 19 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,359 导火索来自于美国与伊朗冲突的进一步升级 20 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:05,939 根据美国中央司令部消息 21 00:01:05,939 --> 00:01:12,129 美军在昨天周二夜间对伊朗南部海岸多个军事目标进行了袭击 22 00:01:12,129 --> 00:01:13,609 包括军事基地 23 00:01:13,609 --> 00:01:14,590 海军设施 24 00:01:14,590 --> 00:01:17,459 雷达系统以及导弹发射装置 25 00:01:17,459 --> 00:01:22,909 以此回应之前伊朗无人机击落美军直升机的事件 26 00:01:22,909 --> 00:01:24,670 更令市场担忧的是 27 00:01:24,670 --> 00:01:30,310 冲突呢已经开始从传统军事目标向民用基础设施扩散 28 00:01:30,310 --> 00:01:34,799 伊朗部分供水设施在本轮冲突中就遭到了破坏 29 00:01:34,799 --> 00:01:37,239 而伊朗随后也对驻巴林 30 00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:41,509 科威特和约旦的美军基地展开了报复性打击 31 00:01:41,509 --> 00:01:45,260 双方都声称自己是在进行繁育性的行 32 00:01:45,260 --> 00:01:48,680 但市场显然已经不再关心谁对谁错了哈 33 00:01:51,659 --> 00:01:53,359 川普今天公开表示 34 00:01:53,359 --> 00:01:57,420 将会对伊朗采取非常猛烈的军事行动 35 00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:00,439 并且宣称周二美军已经重创了伊朗 36 00:02:00,439 --> 00:02:05,079 这个周三哈还将继续展开新一轮打击 37 00:02:05,079 --> 00:02:06,599 福克斯新闻透露 38 00:02:06,599 --> 00:02:10,240 白宫已经接近批准针对伊朗发电厂 39 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,939 桥梁等关键基础设施新一轮打击计划了 40 00:02:13,939 --> 00:02:14,860 与此同时 41 00:02:14,860 --> 00:02:17,620 伊朗方面也放出了强硬信号 42 00:02:17,620 --> 00:02:19,750 嗯伊朗军方表示呢 43 00:02:19,750 --> 00:02:22,590 正在重新评估与美国的谈判 44 00:02:22,590 --> 00:02:27,009 并且警告未来的回应力度将远超此前水平 45 00:02:27,009 --> 00:02:31,449 市场对于中东局势进一步恶化的担忧持续发酵 46 00:02:35,039 --> 00:02:37,860 而就在市场神经紧绷的时候 47 00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:40,520 美国5月CPI数据出炉了 48 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,340 整体来看这份报告呢比市场预期的要略好 49 00:02:44,340 --> 00:02:46,340 虽然整体通胀仍在加速 50 00:02:46,340 --> 00:02:52,199 但是剔除掉食品和能源之后的核心CPI表现较为温和啊 51 00:02:52,199 --> 00:02:54,879 这也是我们昨天视频里所预测的哈 52 00:02:54,879 --> 00:03:00,338 尤其是这个环比增速从前值0.4%回落到了0.2% 53 00:03:00,338 --> 00:03:02,838 低于是残余七的0.3% 54 00:03:02,838 --> 00:03:06,278 同比增速呢也小幅上升到2.9% 55 00:03:06,278 --> 00:03:07,419 符合逾期 56 00:03:07,419 --> 00:03:08,539 数据公布之后 57 00:03:08,539 --> 00:03:13,240 交易员们削减了对年底前加息的极端压注 58 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,240 美债收益率短线跳水 59 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,919 纳指期货就一度快速拉升哈 60 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,699 所以市场是将持作为利好呃来处理 61 00:03:21,699 --> 00:03:25,479 至少也是一个利空出境这么一个反应嗯 62 00:03:25,479 --> 00:03:28,659 开盘后纳指甚至这个短暂转涨 63 00:03:28,659 --> 00:03:31,919 但是CPI利好只维持了不到一个小时哈 64 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,560 大家都担心今晚伊朗那边又要开打了 65 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:40,800 川普都已经说了 66 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,800 今天要狠狠的打击嘛 67 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:43,919 10:30之后呢 68 00:03:43,919 --> 00:03:45,800 多头动能就彻底消退了 69 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,620 指数掉头向下重新转跌 70 00:03:48,620 --> 00:03:49,979 从技术面来看 71 00:03:49,979 --> 00:03:55,300 标普500今天几乎把昨天收复的这个跌幅全部吐回去了 72 00:03:55,300 --> 00:03:57,430 就是这个下影线哈 73 00:03:57,430 --> 00:03:59,949 有这个一根阴线实体 74 00:03:59,949 --> 00:04:02,310 整个嗯吞噬掉了 75 00:04:02,310 --> 00:04:04,789 虽然暂时还没有跌破昨天的低点 76 00:04:04,789 --> 00:04:06,650 但是距离已经非常的接近 77 00:04:06,650 --> 00:04:09,219 今天收出了这根脚阴线 78 00:04:09,219 --> 00:04:11,500 说明上方抛压依然沉重 79 00:04:11,500 --> 00:04:13,860 市场大概率还要向下回踩 80 00:04:13,860 --> 00:04:15,759 并测试50日均线 81 00:04:15,759 --> 00:04:17,560 巴克莱对此指出 82 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,899 从6月初高点算起 83 00:04:19,899 --> 00:04:25,329 本轮回调的总体幅度预计在6%到7%之间 84 00:04:25,329 --> 00:04:30,790 底部大约在7150~7050点之间 85 00:04:30,790 --> 00:04:33,490 如果他的这个判断成立 86 00:04:33,490 --> 00:04:37,079 那么市场目前可能就只完成了一半的调整 87 00:04:37,079 --> 00:04:39,519 不过呢美股不会一路这么跌下去的哈 88 00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:41,560 期间肯定会有暴利反弹 89 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:48,910 可以说美股最暴利的单日反弹都是出现在这种大跌的呃 90 00:04:48,910 --> 00:04:50,850 这个呃趋势当中 91 00:04:50,850 --> 00:04:55,720 但是呢中短期大概率就整体维持弱势了哈 92 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,220 除了宏观与地远的利空 93 00:04:58,220 --> 00:05:00,480 导致大盘近期天天下跌 94 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,500 流动性几近枯竭的深层原因呢 95 00:05:03,500 --> 00:05:08,959 还有就是华尔街近期针对一级与二级市场的持续抽水 96 00:05:08,959 --> 00:05:14,250 最为关键的变量就是这周五即将上市的世纪巨无霸space x了 97 00:05:14,250 --> 00:05:15,310 过去几年 98 00:05:15,310 --> 00:05:18,379 每当超级明星公司上市之前 99 00:05:18,379 --> 00:05:21,379 市场都会出现一次资金再平衡的 100 00:05:21,379 --> 00:05:23,779 因为资金总量是有限的 101 00:05:23,779 --> 00:05:30,800 如果在短时间内数千亿美元资金需要快速配置这个speak sex的话 102 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,680 那么资金只能从现有的那些权重股 103 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,220 还有高佣几赛道中抽出来 104 00:05:39,759 --> 00:05:43,750 这几天股价这肉眼可见的持续承压哈 105 00:05:43,750 --> 00:05:46,670 提前给新人裸腾仓位嗯 106 00:05:46,670 --> 00:05:49,829 根据指数再平衡预测机构的精算 107 00:05:49,829 --> 00:05:56,040 由于纳斯达克MSCI以及富时罗素都可能快速纳入SPACEX 108 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,298 上市仅15个交易日内 109 00:05:58,298 --> 00:06:04,100 指数基金呢就可能要机械式的吞下SPACEX3成的流通股 110 00:06:04,100 --> 00:06:10,170 那很多机构现在其实就想把纳资100提前砸出一个坑来释放流动性 111 00:06:10,170 --> 00:06:12,170 容纳这个巨无霸 112 00:06:12,170 --> 00:06:15,720 否则的话若纳值100还在历史高位运行 113 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,240 再强行塞进去一个超级巨无霸 114 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,779 那很容易就导致整体估值失衡崩掉哈 115 00:06:21,779 --> 00:06:25,009 在这种局部抽水机效应之下 116 00:06:25,009 --> 00:06:25,930 特斯拉拉 117 00:06:25,930 --> 00:06:26,649 英伟达 118 00:06:28,110 --> 00:06:30,110 还有那些高拥挤的持仓 119 00:06:30,110 --> 00:06:32,819 就是AI半导体嘛集体失血 120 00:06:32,819 --> 00:06:35,500 所以对于近期的科技股调整呢 121 00:06:35,500 --> 00:06:38,300 绝非简单的恐慌抛售哈 122 00:06:38,300 --> 00:06:43,709 某种程度上其实就是华尔街在为SPACEX上市做准备 123 00:06:43,709 --> 00:06:47,670 在整体流动性遭遇极度挤压的背景之下 124 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:52,379 二级市场的圈钱草更是让市场呢雪上加霜呃 125 00:06:52,379 --> 00:06:54,819 谷歌与美塔最近又是发债 126 00:06:54,819 --> 00:06:56,329 又是卖股权 127 00:06:56,329 --> 00:06:59,089 太空股最近增发的动作也是不断 128 00:06:59,089 --> 00:07:01,980 SMCI今年股价狂写28% 129 00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:08,160 直接诱因就是公司宣布计划进行高达70亿美元的股权和股权 130 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:09,370 关联融资 131 00:07:09,370 --> 00:07:13,529 包括50亿美的承销发行与20亿美元的市价增发 132 00:07:13,529 --> 00:07:17,658 以便在公开市场不定期灵活抛售普通股 133 00:07:17,658 --> 00:07:19,538 嗯今网管理层声称 134 00:07:19,538 --> 00:07:21,838 这是为了筹资采购零部件 135 00:07:21,838 --> 00:07:25,040 以满足高达390亿美元的AI服务器订单 136 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,399 但是在当前高利率与与大盘失血的环境之下 137 00:07:29,399 --> 00:07:34,798 如此巨额的增发就引发了市场对它疯狂圈钱的强烈的抵触哈 138 00:07:34,798 --> 00:07:37,238 在这一场流动性风暴当中呢 139 00:07:37,238 --> 00:07:39,029 还有世界杯魔咒 140 00:07:39,029 --> 00:07:41,029 明天就是世界杯开幕了哈 141 00:07:41,029 --> 00:07:43,350 有数据统计显示呢 142 00:07:43,350 --> 00:07:46,970 全球股市往往在赛事期间表现较差 143 00:07:46,970 --> 00:07:49,230 过去八届世界杯期间 144 00:07:49,230 --> 00:07:52,889 全球股市平均跌幅接近1.8% 145 00:07:52,889 --> 00:07:56,990 其中跌幅最大的一次就是1994年世界杯期间 146 00:07:56,990 --> 00:07:59,269 也是在美国举行的哈 147 00:07:59,269 --> 00:08:02,689 当时美股市场下跌概率呢为50% 148 00:08:02,689 --> 00:08:05,269 平均跌幅3.09% 149 00:08:05,269 --> 00:08:07,629 可能就是因为在家门口举行嘛 150 00:08:07,629 --> 00:08:11,910 所以这个看球赛的美国人更多把钱都拿去赌球啦 151 00:08:11,910 --> 00:08:13,209 吃吃喝喝啦 152 00:08:13,209 --> 00:08:14,569 呃出去玩啦 153 00:08:14,569 --> 00:08:16,649 就反正买股票的钱少了 154 00:08:16,649 --> 00:08:18,680 精力花的时间也少了 155 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:23,100 所以多重因素就导致了美股近期持续调整 156 00:08:23,100 --> 00:08:24,509 表面上看啊 157 00:08:24,509 --> 00:08:27,829 好像是川普的这个突变口风哈 158 00:08:27,829 --> 00:08:29,399 发帖要答疑啦 159 00:08:29,399 --> 00:08:31,779 其实川普也是顺势而为 160 00:08:31,779 --> 00:08:35,139 借这个时机满仓开好铺子 161 00:08:35,139 --> 00:08:38,919 然后发帖就是呃进一步打压这个市场 162 00:08:38,919 --> 00:08:40,960 加剧了这个恐慌的情绪 163 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,379 甲骨文今天盘后呢公布了财报 164 00:08:43,379 --> 00:08:46,320 公司第四财季营收同比增长了20% 165 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,580 调整后每股收益2.1亿美元 166 00:08:48,580 --> 00:08:50,120 同比增长24% 167 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:51,429 略好于预期 168 00:08:51,429 --> 00:08:55,090 剩余履约义务从5530亿美元 169 00:08:55,090 --> 00:08:59,350 增长到创纪录的6380亿美元 170 00:08:59,350 --> 00:09:02,750 但只有现金流在2030年之前都是负的哈 171 00:09:02,750 --> 00:09:05,129 总营收入99亿美元 172 00:09:05,129 --> 00:09:06,750 不及预期的100亿美元 173 00:09:06,750 --> 00:09:12,599 软件收入呢也不及预期导致的股价在盘后剧烈震荡后走低 174 00:09:12,599 --> 00:09:14,158 如果能够跌的更多 175 00:09:14,158 --> 00:09:15,158 我才会考虑哈 176 00:09:15,158 --> 00:09:17,558 因为现在好多的股票都被砸出了 177 00:09:17,558 --> 00:09:20,220 性价比比甲骨文更具有吸引能力 178 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:21,980 并不是非选他不可 179 00:09:21,980 --> 00:09:25,559 同样被资金无情抛弃的还有那些嗯 180 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,039 没有基本面的PPT概念股 181 00:09:28,039 --> 00:09:32,399 亚马逊支持的核能公司XNLG上市就是巅峰了 182 00:09:32,399 --> 00:09:34,339 此后股价就跌跌不休 183 00:09:34,339 --> 00:09:38,399 嗯目前已经跌破了发行价23美元 184 00:09:38,399 --> 00:09:39,700 与OKO一样 185 00:09:39,700 --> 00:09:42,960 这种仍处于PPT阶段的电力概念股 186 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:45,159 在流动性紧缩周期中呢 187 00:09:45,159 --> 00:09:46,940 正在被集体清算 188 00:09:46,940 --> 00:09:49,259 只能等市场情绪好转 189 00:09:49,259 --> 00:09:50,700 流动性充裕的时候 190 00:09:50,700 --> 00:09:52,480 才能够玩这些概念股哈 191 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:58,980 SK海力士在今年3月份已经宣布秘密提交了在美国上市申请 192 00:09:58,980 --> 00:10:02,720 计划最早于今年8月在美国上市 193 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:09,200 sec可能在这个6月22号当周批准SK海力士的美国存托凭证 194 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:10,779 ADR上市申请 195 00:10:10,779 --> 00:10:14,059 如果SK海力士真的来美国这个上市了 196 00:10:14,059 --> 00:10:17,460 那可能会对现有的美股AI存储龙头 197 00:10:17,460 --> 00:10:21,259 尤其是SNDK造成估值风流压力 198 00:10:21,259 --> 00:10:26,009 现在的SNDK呢享受着极高的AI存储溢价呃 199 00:10:26,009 --> 00:10:27,769 估值都超过55倍了哈 200 00:10:27,769 --> 00:10:34,059 但是SK海力士在HBM和高端AI存储领域的纯度更高 201 00:10:34,059 --> 00:10:36,940 一旦啊海力士ADR在美股落地 202 00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:39,340 那些过去受合规限制 203 00:10:39,340 --> 00:10:42,659 无法购买韩股的美国本土主力机构 204 00:10:42,659 --> 00:10:44,059 什么养老金之类的 205 00:10:44,059 --> 00:10:47,668 几乎必然会通过抛售部分闪迪 206 00:10:47,668 --> 00:10:50,668 甚至可能美光科技的股票来腾出仓位 207 00:10:50,668 --> 00:10:52,688 转而呢配置SK海力士 208 00:10:52,688 --> 00:10:58,028 所以手里要是持有这个闪迪或者西部数据股票的朋友 209 00:10:58,028 --> 00:11:00,908 一定要关注SK海力士的每股落地时间 210 00:11:00,908 --> 00:11:02,399 提前做好准备 211 00:11:04,799 --> 00:11:05,720 纯属无辜哈 212 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,720 公司5月营收数额132亿美元 213 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,450 同比增长了30% 214 00:11:10,450 --> 00:11:11,529 分析师预计 215 00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:15,269 公司第二季度销售额将会继续增长35% 216 00:11:15,269 --> 00:11:19,509 台积电一直对全球AI芯片需求持乐观态度 217 00:11:19,509 --> 00:11:23,149 今年4月份就已经上调了全年销售指引 218 00:11:23,490 --> 00:11:26,690 强劲的基本面可以说毫无瑕疵 219 00:11:26,690 --> 00:11:29,659 下跌纯粹就是无奈被大盘拖着走 220 00:11:29,659 --> 00:11:33,659 唯独能够在今天惨淡实况中逆势突围的啊 221 00:11:33,659 --> 00:11:35,840 只有那些世界杯概念股啦 222 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:41,318 呃昨天刚提到的博彩股DKNG今天又逆势上涨了4.35% 223 00:11:41,318 --> 00:11:43,619 他的预测平台的亮眼数据 224 00:11:43,619 --> 00:11:48,440 配合这个即将到来的长达六周体育博彩盛宴 225 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,149 让他成为德银等机构眼中的短期核心催化剂 226 00:11:53,149 --> 00:11:54,669 同属世界杯概念 227 00:11:54,669 --> 00:11:58,190 德国兵沪的股价今天早盘也一度暴涨了9% 228 00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:00,669 可惜后面被大盘给拖下去了哈 229 00:12:00,669 --> 00:12:01,649 不过没有关系 230 00:12:01,649 --> 00:12:03,470 股价后续咱们还是看涨 231 00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:06,460 应该有希望去挑战三方年限的 232 00:12:06,460 --> 00:12:09,100 作为世界杯主要赞助商 233 00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:13,299 传统消费巨头可口可乐股价今天呢涨了2.77% 234 00:12:13,299 --> 00:12:15,068 创下了历史新高 235 00:12:15,068 --> 00:12:18,308 美银昨天周二发布的最新报告指出 236 00:12:18,308 --> 00:12:22,489 参考1994年同样在美国举办的世界杯经验呃 237 00:12:22,489 --> 00:12:26,928 对于饮料需求的拉动不仅局限于比赛的月份 238 00:12:26,928 --> 00:12:29,288 分销商在前期的库存积压 239 00:12:29,288 --> 00:12:30,730 还有后期的补充 240 00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:34,570 将会使利好呢贯穿5月到8月 241 00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:40,009 甚至有望拉动美国6月整体零售销售增速提升0.3% 242 00:12:40,009 --> 00:12:44,350 这种有实体消费与博彩带来的确定性 243 00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:49,629 现金流繁育属性就成为了今天美股市场中最后的避风港 244 00:12:49,629 --> 00:12:52,708 所以可能会有一个局部狂欢出现哈 245 00:12:52,708 --> 00:12:55,059 在下周美联储会议之前 246 00:12:55,059 --> 00:12:59,340 那美股市场大概率就会维持目前这种呃高波动 247 00:12:59,340 --> 00:13:01,419 低信息的交易模式哈 248 00:13:01,419 --> 00:13:04,549 可能要等到嗯美联储会议之后 249 00:13:04,549 --> 00:13:08,318 市场呢才会把风险重新定价完成 250 00:13:08,318 --> 00:13:09,759 所以在此之前 251 00:13:09,759 --> 00:13:13,019 一切的上涨咱们都视为超跌反弹 252 00:13:13,019 --> 00:13:14,519 而不是反转哈 253 00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:15,639 昨天我曾说过 254 00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:17,480 这个美股可能要反弹 255 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:21,200 虽然今天因为伊朗开打那个事情了 256 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,360 反弹失败了 257 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,590 但是呢我还是继续认为 258 00:13:24,590 --> 00:13:29,259 美股会在这条50日均线附近出现这个超跌反弹的 259 00:13:29,259 --> 00:13:32,000 所以呢不宜的这个位置过度的看空哈 260 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:33,179 目前来说还是这样 261 00:13:33,179 --> 00:13:36,220 虽然这里并不是一个绝对的低点 262 00:13:36,220 --> 00:13:38,500 但是在这里继续做空的话 263 00:13:38,500 --> 00:13:41,940 风险会比较大行今天我们就说到这里 264 00:13:41,940 --> 00:13:44,700 那我们明天见拜拜
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