人无远虑必有近忧

1
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昨天晚上跟一个做电商的兄弟聊天啊

2
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这是很现实的问题

3
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就是补税

4
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去年呢补了大几百万啊

5
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可能利润的50%不没了

6
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今天还没赚钱

7
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开年又补了大几百个

8
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所以很多时候我给大家讲啊

9
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就是我非常理解啊

10
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因为去年我在和兄弟聊天的时候

11
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那时候他一年还哈那规模很大

12
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很年轻

13
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那时候还是啊踌躇满志

14
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你再给我转

15
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过年来我身边好多做直播的兄弟都夸

16
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你兄弟其实已经是半躺平状态了

17
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其实我在很久以前

18
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我在2022年刚开始转型IP之前呢

19
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给他们聊天的时候

20
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他们是不油烟的

21
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各位就是什么概念呢

22
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因为我是19年开始是半躺平嘛

23
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就开始收缩

24
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那公司呢就从大几百人往外裁是吧

25
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然后砍业务

26
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最后呢反正业务呢收损了七八十%啊

27
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人员的缩水了八九十%

28
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实际上慢慢的就半躺平了

29
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22年开始呢我就给他们一些建议嘛

30
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啊毕竟他们比我小几岁啊

31
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我说建议啊

32
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你们年轻啊

33
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然后呢现在业务很好

34
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那当时团队都四五百个人嘛

35
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我说你们搓一下啊

36
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砍砍他一半先砍一半慢慢的砍

37
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但是你也知道

38
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如果一个人的业务很好的时候

39
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你不管提任何建议

40
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其实大家心里都听不进去的

41
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诶什么意思呢

42
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谦哥啊

43
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你练一下滑了啊

44
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然后我们比你能力强呀

45
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我们年轻啊

46
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我们肯定没问题的

47
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所以我跟大家讲

48
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这是真的啊

49
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就是很多时候呢这个人性是这样的

50
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就是当你好的时候

51
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很难想到差对

52
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就像股票似的啊

53
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就是你看我自己分享股票

54
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其实每个股票我发现问题

55
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就是分享完之后暴涨啊

56
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甚至短短的几个月还翻好多倍

57
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就在这个时候呢

58
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你提示任何风险

59
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这个人他是听不进去的啊

60
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你刚才说这个事有风险

61
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但第二天又涨了

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然后你再给提示

63
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你就赶快卖掉啊

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留下利润

65
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你要实在还想搞个收益

66
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你留下利润

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但是它还在还在涨

68
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然后呢到最后呢就是你的话是苍白无力的

69
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所以这个人性这样

70
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第一个呢当时公司跌的时候

71
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你跟他讲

72
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哎呀

73
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这个公式已经跌到一个很低的很低的点了啊

74
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公式基本面没问题啊

75
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可能一个财报就回来了

76
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但是呢他想的是什么呢

77
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可能会跌的更多

78
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对这就是人性

79
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知道吗

80
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就是巴菲特实盘70年

81
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但是为什么没有几个人成为巴菲特

82
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第二呢

83
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其实你抄巴菲特作业很简单呀

84
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就是你只要买它比它便宜就可以了呀对吧

85
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你像我我就是很简单的道理哈

86
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西方石油我是抄了他的作业啊

87
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我成本40多

88
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然后呢我还在西方石油基础上

89
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我还开发了中国海洋石油

90
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为什么呢

91
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中国海洋石油的股息率是

92
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那我买的时候18块不到嘛

93
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那八个点嘛

94
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那些那希望石油只有两个点嘛

95
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那肯定我要股息率高的嘛

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那估值的话

97
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中国海洋税当时是八倍嘛

98
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七八倍嘛

99
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那西方是有20多位嘛

100
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所以你看我在巴菲的基础上

101
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我还延伸了对吧

102
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所以说我今年啊希望自由

103
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还有啊

104
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中国海洋都有大段对啊

105
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也是我今年的利润的贡献的主力军

106
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但是话又说回来

107
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这些抄八赫的作业的人

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他能抢吗

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他不会想的

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他不会去思考的问题

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所以这个也是我说真的啊

112
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就是我从创业开始呢

113
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我就带着团队啊

114
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我教给他们怎么赚钱

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怎么开发产品

116
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怎么样开发出好卖的商品啊

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怎么样把好卖的产品卖出去啊

118
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怎么样让这个供应链呢配合度高啊

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怎么样高周转

120
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那做投资呢

121
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我给他讲

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我说你要想明白啊

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你是什么性格啊

124
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你是长期投资啊

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你还是投机

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你还是想博弈

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你要把每一个投资的定性先定好

128
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就你要定性啊

129
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你是什么样的性格

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你适合什么样的模式

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实际上作为我来讲呢

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我最希望大家买入顶尖公司长期持有啊

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最好不要动

134
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因为这样也简单

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但是有多少人愿意这么干呢

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对不对

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那为什么世界上只有一个巴菲特啊

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只有一个段永平呢

139
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因为大家都不想这么干

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都嫌慢

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所以这就是为什么我不想投资的时候

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我有时候是吧

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有的时候我看到这个人形的时候

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嘿我也觉得一直在重复

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你知道吗

146
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就一直在重复

147
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但实话实说啊

148
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这个事对我帮助很大大

149
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就是我从别人身上吸血的教训

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我从别人身上看到了这种风险

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我从别人身上呢看到了自己的薄弱

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很多时候就是你通过别人是一面镜子

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你通过这面镜子呢

154
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你越来越明白

155
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这是人性根本就没有改变过

156
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就是历史一直在重演

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人性从来没有变过

158
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就是他你不管怎么讲

159
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如果不是他自己亲自去踩一次脚

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他永远理解不了

161
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所以就是路遥知马力

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日久见人心嘛

163
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就跟我创业一样

164
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我这些年创业走过来

165
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那最后大家能够走到一块的人很少对吧

166
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你投资也是一样的

167
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就是真正做到最后能懂价值投资

168
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能认同并牵起的1%都不到

169
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99%的人都是过来投机的

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其实包括我们自己也一样

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就是你投机

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如果你有能力投机是可以投机的

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投机的要求比投资高多了

174
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就像你做窗户和做代理

175
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其实比做品牌还要难

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只是说你认为你熟悉了哈

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但是呢难度都大的多

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都为啥呢

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因为风险很大

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你天天弹音节律啊

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精神的高度紧张

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这个事本身只要你状态很差

183
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不可持续

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那这个呢也是分享投资的时候呢

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我每次看到想投机的人看他的性格啊

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我一想他早晚会栽

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我该怎么提醒他

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我让他知道他在做错误的事情

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我发现给不到

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就我自己有时候做错误的事情

191
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那都是结果之后我才知道哇

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我错了

193
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我要买了个单

194
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我要吸取教训对吧

195
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我要避免

196
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但是呢你发现我是错了很多次的人对吧

197
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从创业开始啊

198
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在管理过程里面做了多少错决策呀

199
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举个例子

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比如说我今天回到10年前

201
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我在同样面对啊工商所的找事

202
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然后呢同事出纠纷啊

203
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然后工厂被砸

204
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然后呢这个是吧

205
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然后同事啊频繁离职啊

206
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包括公司呢在这种疫情期间遇到的各种危机

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如果我今天我回去

208
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我想我可能比当时处理的方式好得多得多啊

209
00:05:33,029 --> 00:05:34,629
我也不会有这么多白头发啊

210
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我也不会这么焦虑

211
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但这个事呢也只是事后总结

212
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也是事后就想了很多次才想明白的

213
00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,699
那如果今天回到当时的状态

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你还是发现很被动

215
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很无奈的

216
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那这个呢也是一个最无奈的地方啊

217
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所以说我也是给很多创业者讲嘛

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就是大家在经历这种挫折磨难的时候

219
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你要想的是什么呢

220
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对吧

221
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你要想缓一缓

222
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不要当时立即做决策

223
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就当你未来来的时候

224
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你千万不要情绪化

225
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首先想我怎么样避免情绪

226
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这第一个第二个呢就是做三种假设

227
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三种假设就是我用A方案

228
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B方案

229
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C方案

230
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哪个方案会效果更好

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你好好想

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千万不要在自己啊情绪波动啊

233
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焦虑的时候做任何重大的决策

234
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宁可推一推

235
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就像今天做生意一样的

236
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宁可不做

237
00:06:20,449 --> 00:06:21,709
今天很多人找我合作

238
00:06:21,709 --> 00:06:24,689
今天茅台的海外的代理商啊

239
00:06:24,689 --> 00:06:25,949
海外的这个总经理找我

240
00:06:25,949 --> 00:06:26,889
茅台海外啊

241
00:06:26,889 --> 00:06:28,449
问我愿不愿做代理

242
00:06:28,449 --> 00:06:29,930
茅台代理商要我

243
00:06:29,930 --> 00:06:31,529
我要不要做美国的市场代理

244
00:06:31,529 --> 00:06:32,329
就这种事情

245
00:06:32,329 --> 00:06:33,329
我说我考虑考虑

246
00:06:33,329 --> 00:06:34,209
我好好调研一下

247
00:06:34,209 --> 00:06:35,410
我明天我再去啊

248
00:06:35,410 --> 00:06:37,139
更多的卖场去调研一下茅台

249
00:06:37,139 --> 00:06:39,540
就我我有很多的资源和机会得真的哈

250
00:06:39,540 --> 00:06:41,160
就说这些资源都是一手资源啊

251
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:42,389
百分百靠谱的资源

252
00:06:42,389 --> 00:06:43,230
即使这样呢

253
00:06:43,230 --> 00:06:44,410
我也是深思熟虑

254
00:06:44,410 --> 00:06:44,949
再三考虑

255
00:06:44,949 --> 00:06:46,069
我也不敢轻易入手

256
00:06:46,069 --> 00:06:47,829
因为这个世界是这样的

257
00:06:47,829 --> 00:06:50,158
就是你可能是个机会

258
00:06:50,158 --> 00:06:51,399
但是如果说你把握不好呢

259
00:06:51,399 --> 00:06:52,119
他又是陷阱

260
00:06:52,119 --> 00:06:54,199
他就是不匹配你的能力圈

261
00:06:54,199 --> 00:06:55,838
那这个呢也是给大家分享的

262
00:06:55,838 --> 00:06:57,649
是说所有的事呢

263
00:06:57,649 --> 00:06:58,529
甚至手里啊

264
00:06:58,529 --> 00:06:59,649
特别是你已经付过了啊

265
00:06:59,649 --> 00:07:00,709
像我们似的哈

266
00:07:00,709 --> 00:07:02,689
嘿创也没几年实现财务自由的

267
00:07:02,689 --> 00:07:05,509
我每次想我如果说我中间那几年不折腾啊

268
00:07:05,509 --> 00:07:07,629
18年一七年开始不折腾

269
00:07:07,629 --> 00:07:08,810
中间那5年不折腾的话

270
00:07:08,810 --> 00:07:11,209
第一个呢那白头发肯定是一根都没有嘛

271
00:07:11,209 --> 00:07:13,139
那第二个呢就是心情啊

272
00:07:13,139 --> 00:07:14,339
阳光度比现在好多了

273
00:07:14,339 --> 00:07:16,600
那第三个呢就是对人性的理解呢

274
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,790
哈可能是接触的人啊层面会提升很多啊

275
00:07:19,790 --> 00:07:21,589
其实今天的人气提升已经很多了

276
00:07:21,589 --> 00:07:24,470
我我比这个创业期间的那些人的素质和水平

277
00:07:24,470 --> 00:07:25,870
也要高个10~100倍了

278
00:07:25,870 --> 00:07:27,069
但是即使这样呢

279
00:07:27,069 --> 00:07:28,949
随着我的这个能力圈的提升呢

280
00:07:28,949 --> 00:07:30,889
我还是能看到是吧

281
00:07:30,889 --> 00:07:32,928
大家的不一致的地方其实还要提升

282
00:07:32,928 --> 00:07:33,569
就像老戴一样

283
00:07:33,569 --> 00:07:35,168
老戴今天他那个位置上

284
00:07:35,168 --> 00:07:37,629
其实他的机会都是世界顶尖的机会

285
00:07:37,629 --> 00:07:38,470
他不可能有差机会的

286
00:07:38,470 --> 00:07:40,670
因为他的接触的人都顶尖的人

287
00:07:40,670 --> 00:07:42,589
所以呢这个也是给所有商人讲的

288
00:07:42,589 --> 00:07:45,350
就是你在做这个任何决策

289
00:07:45,350 --> 00:07:47,410
任何的投资超绝的时候

290
00:07:47,410 --> 00:07:48,689
你三思而后行

291
00:07:48,689 --> 00:07:49,410
宁可错过

292
00:07:49,410 --> 00:07:50,550
也不要做错对吧

293
00:07:50,550 --> 00:07:51,850
你一定要是赚大钱

294
00:07:51,850 --> 00:07:53,430
亏小钱一定是在错

295
00:07:53,430 --> 00:07:56,110
理论上呢少亏在正确流上多赚对啊

296
00:07:56,110 --> 00:07:57,389
就是记住巴菲特说的啊

297
00:07:57,389 --> 00:07:57,930
不松不买

298
00:07:57,930 --> 00:07:58,720
不懂不碰

299
00:07:58,720 --> 00:07:59,240
不计钱

300
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:00,100
不做功是吧

301
00:08:00,100 --> 00:08:00,800
芒格讲的啊

302
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,879
就是如果你知道你会死在哪里

303
00:08:02,879 --> 00:08:04,500
你永远不要去那个地方

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