【NaNa说美股】20260319明天先吃两斤壮阳药！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月19号

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周四

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美股三大股指普跌

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中东冲突持续相互攻击

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原有基础设施引发油价早盘大跌

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美联储隔夜泼冷水

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市场降息预期破灭

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甚至开始对冲加息风险

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在这两股压力之下

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全球股市呢集体下跌

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日韩股市昨天还逆势风骚了一把

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盘中大部分时间指数都在水下震荡

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直到下午三点

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突然一波急拉

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把人都给拉精神了

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表示

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还强调战争可能比市场想象中更快结束

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同时提到正在帮助美国开放霍尔木兹海峡

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这一番表态

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让市场对战争很快结束呢产生了幻想

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引发了一波陡峭的直线拉升

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但随后内塔尼亚胡又补了一句

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只靠空袭不足以解决问题

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正在考虑采取地面行动

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而且还要寻找

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绕开霍尔木兹海峡和红海的替代路线啊

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这几句话一出来

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市场立刻就清醒了哈

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刚才那一点乐观情绪迅速降温

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不过呢这一波拉升并没有被完全打回去

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对华尔街来说

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已经算是给祖国领导面子了

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前几天白宫出来喊话

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没啥效果

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从盘面上来看

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资金还是表现的很克制嗯

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这个消息再刺激也只是短线交易

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并没有形成一致性追高

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再看利率这一边

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10年期美债收益率

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今天一度冲上4.3%后回落

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应对通胀之后

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欧洲债权自由落体

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美债价格也大幅下跌

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收益率整体抬升

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债市交易员们不再认为

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美联储今年有任何降息可能了

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4.3%这个位置啊很关键

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前面几次冲到这里都被压下来

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要么已经形成了市场共识

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这也意味着

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4.3%的关口不能轻易突破呀

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如果能重新回落

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美股还能喘口气

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一旦突破了4.3%晚

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4.5%走的话

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那美股就会承受巨大的估值压力

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贵金属这边呢也不好过

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黄金里的大谱了

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直接踩到了半年线

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买黄金对冲美股的这一下是两头挨打了

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白银更惨

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从年初分值算下来

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已经接近腰斩

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标普500指数今天呢跳空低开

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并且始终压在年线下方

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收盘也没能涨回去

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这一点是比较伤士气的

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现在市场买家缺位

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基金经理们都在拼命增加现金比例

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企业回购窗口期正在关闭

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CCTA海落井下石

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就连散户也买不动了

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摩根大通数据显示

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本周散户资金流入量再降15%

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自2月28号冲突爆发以来

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整体资金流入已经萎缩了43%

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不过呢散户更可能是被动降低风险哈

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并不是嗯彻底转凶

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这情绪切换可以非常快的

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从VX来看

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市场的下跌空间呢还没有完全出清

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VX居然还在25

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连30都没有冲上去

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说明真正的恐慌情绪呢还没有完全释放完毕

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但是指数这边已经进入极度超卖状态了哈

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六千五一带呢是多头的坚固堡垒

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下方6475

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这里还有gp m cola头寸的put大单

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守着空头继续大规模砸盘的动力在减弱

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再加上明天是35日

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本周跌幅已经很大

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有大量浮盈的空头仓位

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必须要在这个明天结算前平仓

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这种力量很容易触发一波短线反弹

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今天尾盘的那一下子

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其实就是一次典型的空头回补预演哈

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所以短线来看呢

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明天啊周五很可能是一个修复日

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就反弹目标呢先看6700点附近

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但是嗯更上方的抛压依然很重

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整体嗯仍然是这个区间震荡哈

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反复拉扯的节奏

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如果标普能先反弹的话

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那QQ也会同步修复

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这一条关键生命线

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但是收盘勉强挂在年线上

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还没有彻底走坏

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接下来两个交易日就很关键了

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如果周五或者下周一之前能够收回呃

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595的话

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那还能当虚惊一场哈

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但是如果收不回来

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那这个潜在的双顶结构一旦确认的话

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第二段下跌就会打开

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如今白宫操盘美股市场哈

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川普想怎么划线就怎么划线

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今天盘中发生的事儿呢

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可能会让很多朋友觉得诶

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我倒不这么看

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最近几次白宫喊话之后

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市场还是下跌

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那只能说明一件事

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那就是白宫允许市场慢慢的往下走

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安抚并不是为了让市场上涨哈

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而是为了让他别跌的太快太急

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不然的话容易出事

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就像滑雪是要顺着坡滑下去

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而不是直接滚下去

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摔断腿

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所以呢在这种抵抗式下跌的环境里

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无论做多还是做空

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都别就是一根筋哈

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到了关键支撑

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关键阻力位要学会啊分批止盈

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分批重新布局

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节奏比方向要更重要

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个股方面

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美光科技发布强劲财报后

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短线资金呢获利了结

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导致股价回落

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公司预计本财年

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资本支出将会超过250亿美元

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高于市场此前预期的224亿美元

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并且预计到了2027财年支出还会大幅增加

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尤其是晶圆厂建设相关的投入

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将会额外增加超过100亿美元

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高强度资本支出计划呢

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让部分资金情绪趋于谨慎

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不过从盘面来看

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情况并没有想象中那么悲观

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股价日内低开高走

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跌幅从开盘接近8%

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一路收窄到只有3.8%

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说明下方承接非常的积极

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即便当下整体市场波动加剧

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存储板块呢依然在吸引资金抱团

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至少以目前来说哈

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这个是AI基础设施板块中最明确的主线之一呃

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资金对这个赛道的关注度呢并没有降温

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因为大股价今天也是跳空低开

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盘中跌破年线后回升

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但是缺口还没有完全回补

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明天有机会反弹

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继续补缺

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如果大盘想要走出像样的反弹

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那还是得让英伟达出来带带节奏呃

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其他几个巨头

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比如微软ma他们走的更弱

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在这种情况之下

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英伟达哪怕是不强攻上涨

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至少也得稳住

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得横着哈

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才能够给大盘争取到反弹的窗口

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review股价今天早盘一度飙升10%

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但是盘中呢明显资金兑现

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尾盘涨幅收窄的3.8%

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UBER计划向瑞VIAN投资12.5亿美元

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双方达成协议

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到2031年

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在多个国家部署至多5万辆无人驾驶出租车

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UBER呢初步将会采购1万辆RAVION

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即将推出的r tr自动驾驶版本车型

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并且从2030年起

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还有最多4万2的追加空间

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协议签署之后呢

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UBER会先投入3亿美元

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不过这一笔交易仍需监管批准

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梵蒂美和樊利美的股价自去年9月中旬以来

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就一直处于大幅下跌状态

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回撤超过70%了

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在川普上台之后哈外界曾乐观的认为

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这两家机构可能会在2025年进行公开发行

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而当时华尔街媒体

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白宫还有监管房地美

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房利美的联邦住房金融局局长

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都参与了这一场炒作

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推动他们的股价飙升了十倍

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结果这个预期一直没有实现

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川普曾要求两房买入2000亿美元的抵押贷款债

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券MBS

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以对冲美联储

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每个月大约150亿美元的NBS缩表规模

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这就直接给投资者浇了一盆冷水哈

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把两房当做下蛋的鸡了嘛

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呃这个市场就解读为

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川普可能会通过对公司施加更大的控制

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来抵消高利率带来的影响

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这导致投资者和官员们

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对推行两房股票发行计划就持谨慎态度

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此后呢就再也没有任何具体的细节流出了哈

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川普就忙着搞别的事

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白宫呢也好像彻底忘了这个事情

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就连那个联邦住房金融局局长也彻底的闭嘴

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装死了

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市场热度消退之后

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00:09:27,860 --> 00:09:29,440
就留下一地鸡毛

220
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,019
在周三美联储维持利率不变

221
00:09:32,019 --> 00:09:33,600
美债收益率攀升之后

222
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,100
两房的股价更是雪上加霜

223
00:09:36,100 --> 00:09:39,019
短期这个前景不明朗

224
00:09:39,019 --> 00:09:40,580
为布什分析师认为

225
00:09:40,580 --> 00:09:42,080
在川普任期内

226
00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:46,230
关于两方的股票发行话题呢还会再次被提起的

227
00:09:46,230 --> 00:09:48,830
但是至少要等到今年11月

228
00:09:48,830 --> 00:09:52,419
美国中期选举结束之后才会启动

229
00:09:52,419 --> 00:09:54,559
比阿克曼旗下的潘兴广场

230
00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,299
目前依然持有大量两房股票

231
00:09:57,299 --> 00:10:00,460
是两房最大的外部普通股股东

232
00:10:00,460 --> 00:10:04,340
尽管两房股价在2024年到2025年期间

233
00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:05,759
暴涨了近十倍

234
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:07,779
它也依然没有在高点

235
00:10:07,779 --> 00:10:09,639
那这个减持套现

236
00:10:09,639 --> 00:10:10,700
因为他认为

237
00:10:10,700 --> 00:10:12,720
两房上市后的公允价值

238
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,309
应该在每股31~40美元

239
00:10:15,309 --> 00:10:17,789
而去年股价大涨虽然显著

240
00:10:17,789 --> 00:10:20,250
但是最高点15美元哈

241
00:10:20,250 --> 00:10:22,599
仍远低于它的目标价

242
00:10:22,599 --> 00:10:25,899
他把这两只股票视为抽屉里的彩票

243
00:10:25,899 --> 00:10:28,278
这一笔长达12年的投资哈

244
00:10:28,278 --> 00:10:29,990
它已经持有12年了

245
00:10:29,990 --> 00:10:31,149
在他的逻辑中

246
00:10:31,149 --> 00:10:35,950
已经从投机转变为确定性极高的宏观套利

247
00:10:35,950 --> 00:10:41,460
面对川普政府要求两房承接美联储缩表压力额

248
00:10:41,460 --> 00:10:44,259
买入2000亿美元NBS所带来的不确定性了

249
00:10:44,259 --> 00:10:44,740
比如开曼

250
00:10:44,740 --> 00:10:49,480
就转而建议川普政府不要在2025年仓促呃

251
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,360
推动这个IPO了

252
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,879
他提出了一个新的三步走计划

253
00:10:53,879 --> 00:10:57,620
建议在2026年第四季度再进行IPO

254
00:10:57,620 --> 00:11:01,549
他认为呢先让两房重回纽交所挂牌

255
00:11:01,549 --> 00:11:03,009
建立市场估值

256
00:11:03,009 --> 00:11:06,139
然后再逐步释放政府持股

257
00:11:06,139 --> 00:11:10,860
比在资本金不足的情况下强行私有化更稳妥

258
00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:13,600
其实也是为了避免他手中的普通股

259
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,720
在直接IPO的时候被极度稀释了

260
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,779
尽管这个两房股价近几个月来持续下跌

261
00:11:20,779 --> 00:11:23,059
哈皮瓦克曼依然公开表示

262
00:11:23,059 --> 00:11:26,879
这是他2026年就今年的最佳投资机会

263
00:11:26,879 --> 00:11:30,679
并且期待通过这一笔历史上最大的交易

264
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,419
也就是这个私有换算市实现数倍的回报

265
00:11:34,419 --> 00:11:35,279
换而言之

266
00:11:35,279 --> 00:11:37,860
如果你对两房的股票感兴趣

267
00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:39,580
最好等这个下半年

268
00:11:39,580 --> 00:11:42,200
美联储重新开始降息了呃

269
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:43,639
到时候再进场博弈

270
00:11:43,639 --> 00:11:46,370
2026年底的IPO窗口

271
00:11:46,370 --> 00:11:47,169
在此之前

272
00:11:47,169 --> 00:11:49,909
我们无法预测这个两房的股价

273
00:11:49,909 --> 00:11:52,889
底部到底会先跌到什么价位

274
00:11:54,889 --> 00:11:56,370
公司财报不及预期

275
00:11:56,370 --> 00:11:58,169
2026财年第三财季

276
00:11:58,169 --> 00:12:00,779
营收同比值微增2%

277
00:12:00,779 --> 00:12:04,159
调整后净利润呢却缩水了近七成

278
00:12:04,159 --> 00:12:06,639
原因是开支急剧增加

279
00:12:06,639 --> 00:12:08,559
我本来都懒得说中概哈

280
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,639
开盘那会的几乎跌近10%了

281
00:12:12,639 --> 00:12:14,919
盘中还收复了部分失地

282
00:12:14,919 --> 00:12:17,440
做中概有两个保命原则

283
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,440
一是不逆势抄底

284
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,269
二是不高位追涨

285
00:12:21,269 --> 00:12:23,169
只吃鱼身的那一部分

286
00:12:23,169 --> 00:12:25,549
但凡是贪心多一些

287
00:12:25,549 --> 00:12:27,659
早晚都会把赚的吐出去

288
00:12:27,659 --> 00:12:30,679
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

289
00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,419
那我们明天见拜拜

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